
ZachAbrams
Feb 23, 2010 Apr 12, 2010 14 6
RSSUser Blog
Head to Head Strategy
Everyone is always trying to get an edge. Head to Head leagues, are ones that I do not like because,i n short. The best team doesnt always win. I cannot tell you how many times I have been in first place all season, and get bounced in the second round of the playoffs, because of an injury, or an unlucky chain of games.
However, for those of you competiting in head to head leagues, here is a trick that I have used very efficiently over the past four or five seasons. I try and draft hitter heavy, and wait to draft pitchers until my entire offense is filled. I then continue to draft pitchers until the draft is complete.
I am not very fond of having bench hitters. I find that more often then not, when making lineup decisions go with your best hitter. I cannot stand when a bench hitter has a banner day on my bench, so I try to limit my Offensive bench to 1 player.
Now, that leaves me with a stable of starting pitchers. When drafting I like to target young arms, and pitchers with upside. Obviously! Now, during the season, I do not have a true bonified ace, so I mix and match starts. If one of my better pitchers is throwing against the Yankees at home, I bench him, while my fourth or fifth arm could be scheduled to throw against the Nationals. This is very effective for daily lineup change leagues. Also, having a lot of options gives you a chance to steal a category on sunday. If you need a win or a few k', usually youll have someone starting, and dont have to stream anyone off waiver. You will find that throughout the week if you choose wisely you can have a very competitive ERA and WHIP while not using any high draft choices on pitchers. It works for me, It can work for you!
Zach Abrams 5x5 Mixed League Draft Results 12 Teams
I have been participating in the same league for the past 6 seasons. This year I had the 7th pick out of 12, and was able tp snag Ryan Braun. I didnt think he would fall this late, and was surprised. Here are the rest of the results.
| 1. | Ryan Braun | |
| 2. | Miguel Cabrera | |
| 3. | Zack Greinke | |
| 4. | Adrian Gonzalez | |
| 5. | Jayson Werth | |
| 6. | Aramis Ramirez | |
| 7. | Nelson Cruz | |
| 8. | Billy Butler | |
| 9. | Wandy Rodriguez | |
| 10. | Jose Lopez | |
| 11. | Stephen Drew | |
| 12. | Jay Bruce | |
| 13. | Brett Anderson | |
| 14. | Jose Valverde | |
| 15. | Gavin Floyd | |
| 16. | Kevin Slowey | |
| 17. | Aaron Harang | |
| 18. | Phil Hughes | |
| 19. | Jorge De La Rosa | |
| 20. | Francisco Liriano | |
| 21. | Tim Hudson | |
| 22. | Matt Capps | |
| 23. | Joel Hanrahan | |
| 24. | Brandon League |
I was pretty happy with the way this draft went. I am lacking in Speed, and Saves, But think I should be able to build a pretty nice lead in HR and RBI, so I should be able to trade at the Break for some more stolen bases. I am hoping Hanrahan comes off the DL and gets me a few saves, in addition to hoping Capps can bounce back. Was happy that I snagged Billy Butler in the 8th, Think he can really put it together and have a .300 30-100 line.
What do you think were the best/worst picks in my draft?
Zach Abrams Starter Rankings
The following rankings are based on 5x5 Rotisserie scoring.
1- Tim Lincecum
2- Roy Halladay
3- C.C. Sabathia
6- Dan Haren
7- Zach Greinke
8- Jon Lester
9- Josh Beckett
10- Wandy Rodriguez
11- Cole Hamels
12- Ubaldo Jimenez
13- Scott Baker
14- Adam Wainwright
15- Cliff Lee
16- Ricky Nolasco
17- Tommy Hanson
18- Brandon Webb
19- Javier Vazquez
20- Brett Anderson
Top 20 Snubs:
Chris Carpenter, Johan Santana, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Johnson, Yovanni Gallardo
Carpenter/Johnson/Gallardo all had 100+ IP spikes, so I can very easily see an injury laden or down season for all three. Johan is getting older, coming off a bone chip surgery I am cautious. He has had decreasing strike out totals, and an increase in FB%. I am not a fan. Finally, Kershaw will be an ace sometime soon, but just not yet. I am a big fan of this lefty, but we will have to wait another season for the dominance to start. I predict an ERA in the mid 3.00 and a lofty 1.3 WHIP including 200+ k's. A fine season but will have limited Win totals based on his IP's.
Jon Lester:
This guy has beaten cancer, beat up on the Yankees, and despite an extremely unlucky first half, finished the campaign strong with a 3.4 ERA and 225 K's. I think Lester has the potential to break into the top 5 SP's at the end of the season. I am not a fan of drafting starters early, but I think he can be a major major bargain in the 7th of 8th round of drafts.
Zach Abrams Top 25 OF Rankings
Follow rankings are based on a 5x5 rotisserie scoring.
1- Ryan Braun
2- Matt Kemp
5- Justin Upton
7- Jayson Werth
8- Nelson Cruz
10- Adam Lind
11- Andre Ethier
12- Carlos Lee
13- Jason Bay
14- Shane Victorino
15- Bobby Abreu
16- Andrew McCutchcen
17- Shin- Soo Choo
18- Torii Hunter
19- Ichiro Suzuki
20- Manny Ramirez
21- Nate McClouth
22- Josh Hamilton
23- Nick Markakis
25- Jay Bruce
Discussion Worthy Players:
Nick Markakis: Dropped below 20hr for first time in career at full at bats. Increased his fly ball percentage but decreased his home runs? Something is fishy here, Avoid!
Nelson Cruz: Provided almost a full season with many of the same peripherals as his previous year proving he is legit. Did have some injuries along the way which limited him to only 460 at bats. But, did hit 33hr/20sb in this time. Add another 150 at bats, increase those totals to almost 40/25. Second full season should help his average a bit, and later in the draft you have a cheap upgraded version of Grady Sizemore. Just a bit bulkier.
Andre Ethier: Broke out last year .272 31hr 106rbi. Each full season he has taken a step up. I think 2010 is his coming out party. Last years average was limited by unlucky h%(Last 4 seasons lowest combinded average was .280). Moving Kemp up in the order / full season with Manny can provide big time numbers. Miss Cleo Projects .280 35 110.
Ichiro Suzuki: In 2007, Ichiro hit .351 due to a 39% hit rate. The next year he hit .310. In 2009 Ichiro hit .352 due to a 38% hit rate. 2010 he hits? My guess is around .300. His stolen base totals are slowely dwindeling due to his age.(36) Keep in mind, last year was his first season under 100 runs ever.
Zach Abrams 3B Rankings
The following Rankings are based onMark 5x5 Rotisserie Scoring.
3- David Wright
11- Kevin Kouzmanoff
12- Adrian Beltre
13- Alex Gordon
14- Casey Blake
15- Brandon Wood
Best Value: I think that Ryan Zimmerman, being drafted late third early fourth, is a very productive player whos being drafted later then he should. This year with 3B being shallow, his 30 hr 100rbi and .290 average is being underlooked possibly due to the Nationals Logo on his chest. He is surrounded by young talent, and if they tajke the next step so could his RBI Totoal. Still young, Zimmerman, is putting up numbers similar to the likes of Teixiera and Longoria, he is just not as flashy.
Worst Value: Pablo Sandoval may be the best young pure hitter in the game, but just not for fantasy purposes. He has had a history of being a great line drive hitter, so his high BABIP shouldnt hurt his avergae too much. I worry more about his surrounding cast then I do his hitting ability. His weake offense will limit his Run and RBI totals, and pitchers will pitch around him more. He is being drafted very early, and will not put up the stats to warrent such a high selection.
Late Round Flyer: I believe Mike Lowell will be shipped off, and Adrian Beltre will get the opportunity to play every day. Before his injury last year, he had three straight years at 25hrs and close to 80rbis. If healthy, he can provide these same numbers, and could be drafted toward the end of the draft. The 3B talent pool is very weak this year, so if you miss out on the top flight players, look more in Beltre, who can amass value given his new situation.
Zach Abrams SS Rankings
Rankings are based on 5x5 Rotisserie Scoring.
1- Hanley Ramnirez
3- Troy Tulowitski
4- Derek Jeter
5- Jose Reyes
6- Stephen Drew
8- Elvis Andrus
10- Alexi Ramirez
11- Jason Bartlett
12- Rafael Furcal
13- Everth Cabrera
14- Miguel Tejada
15- Erick Aybar
Names and things to Consider
Jose Reyes: How will his injury affect his draft status and the 2010 season statistics?
Stephen Drew: Can he rebound from his sub par sophmore season. I think he does come back strong.
Dustin Pedroia: Possibly will gain SS eligibility, something to keep in mind
Everth Cabrera: How much can he get on base? Once he does he is gone.
Miguel Tejada: Ressurgence in Baltimore? May provide excellent late round value for your MI slot,.
I also am very high on Jimmy Rollins coming into this year. He had a horrible first half of the season, but put up solid numbers, right inline with his career statistics in the second half. There were rumors about his health in the first half, which may explain his bad performance. Dont forget his upside... If you do, Go Look at his MVP season stats.... Acquiring him in the third round maybe a STEAL.
Zach Abrams 2B Rankings
The following Rankings are based on 5x5 Rotisserie scoring.
1- Chase Utley
4- Ian Kinsler
9- Jose Lopez
10- Richie Weeks
11- Ben Zobrist
12- Aaron Hill
13- Dan Uggla
14- Ian Stewart
15- Kelly Johnson
16- Scott Sizemore
17- Orlando Hudson
18- Asdrubal Cabrera
19- Martin Prado
20- Placido Polanco
Aaron Hill: Many will feel being ranked 12 is very unjust after hitting .286 36 hrs 108 rbi. If you look into Hill's fundamental statistics, you will see that his 2009 campaign is very similar to his 2007 breakout year. His fb rate, hr/f and contact rate were almost identicle, while his power spike was due to his unusually high hr/f (16%). Expect Hill to contribute right around 20 home runs, but thus putting him back outside my top 10.
Ben Zobrist: Another player I feel had his best case scenerio season fall into line in 2009. I have projected him to have a solid season, but the reasoning for his is more of a gut call then anything else.
Jose Lopez: If you have read any of my columns before, you know how high I am on Lopez. Lopez is going unnoticed in many drafts despite hitting 25 hrs and 96 rbi out of the 2B position. His .272 average was low, but chalk some of that up to luck (27% hit percentage). Remeber, just a year ago with a normal hit rate he batted .297. I believe Lopez can produce as a top 3 second baseman if everything falls into place for him this season. This 26 year old also has the addition of Chone Figgins working for him..
Zach Abrams First Base Rankings
2010 First Base Rankings.
The following rankings are based on 5 x 5 rotisserie scoring.
5- Ryan Howard
6- Joey Votto
10- Adrian Gonzalez
11- Derek Lee
12- Kendry Morales
13- Adam Dunn
14- Billy Butler
15- Carlos Pena
16- Michael Cuddyer
17- James Loney
18- Chris Davis
19- Garret Jones
20- Todd Helton
First base is extremely deep this season, like it is most years. However, this year especially, you can wait to grab a first baseman, and still snag a potential 30+ HR guy in the middle to late rounds. There are five guys on this list who can potentially be drafted in the first round, depending on team totals or preference. I have Howard as my 5th ranked 1B, due to his decreasing potency against left handers. His HR and SLG totals have been in a sharp decline against LHP, and I expect this to continue. Don't be fooled by last years average, as I also foresee another sub .270 batting average.
Two players who I think can be pleasant surprises this season in returning value are Billy Butler, and James Lones. The hype machine has been pumping Butlers name for months, and many are expecting 30 homeruns. Thirty Home Runs may be asking a lot, but a .290 90r 25hr 100rbi season out of Butler, would make many people do back flips.
Loney on the other hand may be at the short end of the Joe Torre line up musical chairs game he plays every year. Kemp MUST be brought into the heart of the line up, and Loney may be pushed down. I do expect him to continue to grow, and 20 home runs, and a .300+ average is not unrealistic.
If you see yourself on the short end of the first tier 1B run, dont panic, and draft another position. The Firsebase pool is very deep, and all the position scarcity fans will rejoice for now.
The Next Jonathan Broxton
3-6
4.58 ERA
1.24 WHIP
0 Saves
Not the numbers of a player who want to invest in right? WRONG..... These were the statistics for Brandon League from last season. When prospecting for saves, which every savy fantasy owner does, you cannot be naiive and expect the next waiver wire phenom to be easy to spot. Nobody thought Andrew Bailey and David Aardsma would be closers at last years drafts.
Reasons to like Brandon League for this season:
1) League had elite skills that were masked by poor luck.
-hr/f (15%)
-S% (65%)
-h% (33%)
2) Brandon League had a 10 k/9 in the second half, while walking walking less then 3.
3) In 2008 Leage induced 67% GB and in 2009 56% GB.
The closest comparison to this power ground ball pitcher is some guy named Jonathaon Broxton. In 2007 and 2008 Broxton combinded for only 16 saves, but had a 50% GB ratio, and struck out a little over 12 per nine.
From the outside looking in, the Mariners look pretty set at Closer. David Aardsma had a pretty solid overall season in 2009, but looking at the underlying statistics, I expect a drastic dropoff, which could lead to a change in the bullpen. With Lee, Hernandez and Bedard healthy in the rotation, there can be a ton of save opportunities in Seattle, and I expect League to take over as closer sometime in June.
If Brandon League gets the opportunity like Broxton did in '08 & '09, we should be looking at Broxton-esque save totals.
Jason Hammel Sleeper Potential
Eevnthough this 27 year old was only 10-8 last season with and ERA above four, he has the ability to pitch well above those numbers. While most people are looking into Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa in Colorado, you should not overlook Jason Hammel. Over the past few years he has become a ground ball pitcher inducing over 45% GB's. But the major change in Hammel's game has been his control. Last season he cut his walk total almost in half, dropping his whip and era in return. Hopefully his unlucky hit rate of 34% will revert back to average, and he can make major improvements on last seasons numbers. Hammel's is being undrafted in most leagues, but look for him to break into the top 50 SP by seasons end. If Hammels can continue to improve his control, and keep the ball out of the thin air of Coor's expect a drastic improvement.
Why Drafters Should Wait on Closers
This is a very volatile position, and there is tons of turn over in the closer department from year to year. I am going to assume that you play in a league where the owners actually have some intelligence, and say that you will not come out of the draft with the perfect team. Nor will you be able to leave the draft being able to cover every category. Saves is the area where you can hang back, and wait until after the draft to obtain these stats. Certain statistics come into the league, and you can gain via the waiver wire, and certain ones do not. Saves is the category with the most waiver wire depth.
Only three of the drafted closers last year managed to return a 30% or more profit. (Brian Wilson, Trevor Hoffman, and Heath Bell) Only eight closers, 29% returned any profit at all. In all, 20 of the 28 pitchers drafted last year for saves 71% realized a loss on their purchase price.
The Grady Sizemore Question
Going into 2009, Grady Sizemore was a premier first round talent. His ability to hit for power with his terrific speed vaulted him to the top of the OF projections going into many drafts. Sizemore had a lackluster 2010 campaign, but is again moving back toward the top of people's draft boards. He is being taken at the end of the third round, and occasionally slips into the fourth.
The question around Sizemore are health concerns, but are they fair? Before last season Grady was a lock for 600 at bats, mid twenty homeruns, and close to thirty steals. Already arriving healthily in spring training, expect Grady to get back into form, and provide great value in the third round.
Fair projections for Grady Sizemore next season?
I expect him to return to the high HR totals and moderate batting average he has shown in the past. With his high FB %, (close to 50%) his batting average will not creep close to .300, but with the potential to hit thirty homeruns and swipe thirty bags, you cannot ignore Cleveland's leadoff hitter this season. Without forecasting another injury expect Sizemore back into the top 15 overall picks next fantasy season, so for this year... Grap him while you still can for cheap
The 100+ Innings WorkLoad Theory
Usage Warning Flags
Research shows that there is only a certain amount of innings pitched that every pitcher can throw. This number varies by pitcher, age, how he was developed, his delivery, and what pitches he throws. You can measure a pitchers potential for injury and effectiveness by looking at key statistics from previous years.
Sharp increases in usage from one year to the next:
Any pitcher who has increases his workload by 50 IP or more from year 1 to year 2 is a supreme candidate for burnout in year 3. An increase of 100 IP or more is even more notable. There were 17 pitchers who had an increase of 100 IP or more from 2007 to 2008, and we have listed them, and their 2009 performances. Nearly 90% of them executed poorly in 2009.
PITCHER IP INCREASE ’07-‘08 2009 STATISTICS
Francisco Liriano 199 137 IP 5.80 ERA
Dana Eveland 184 44 IP 7.16 ERA
Ricky Nolasco 173 185 IP 5.06 ERA
Glen Perkins 155 96 IP 5.89 ERA
Brett Myers 141 71 IP 4.84 ERA
Ryan Dempster 140 200 IP 3.65 ERA
Brandon Backe 138 13 IP 10.38 ERA
Randy Johnson 137 96 IP 4.88 ERA
Rich Harden 132 141 IP 4.09 ERA
Justin Duchscherer 128 0 IP
Glendon Rusch 125 19 IP 6.75 ERA
Sidney Ponson 124 59 IP 7.36 ERA
David Purcey 120 48 IP 6.19 ERA
Darrell Rasner 119 0 IP
Todd Wellemeyer 113 122 IP 5.89 ERA
Jonathan Sanchez 106 163 IP 4.24 ERA
Brian Stokes 102 70 IP 3.97 ERA
Here is the list of pitchers who increased their innings by 100+ from last season. These are the 14 pitchers who increased their innings pitched by over 100
PITCHER IP INCREASE ’08-‘09
Brett Anderson 144
Madison Bumgarner 117
Trevor Cahill 142
Chris Carpenter 178
Bruce Chen 144
Yovanni Gallardo 147
Josh Johnson 103
Bud Norris 104
Sean O’Sullivan 139
Russ Ortiz 117
Carl Pavano 151
Rick Porcello 165
Brian Tallet 105
Adam Wainwright 101
Note that Tommy Hanson increased his innings by 96.
Now, you must take these numbers with a grain of salt. This data should be used as a guide, not a deterrent. I am not telling you not to draft any of the pitchers who are listed above, just be warned that in previous seasons, pitchers who increased their innings pitched numbers drastically were prone to injury and had unsuccessful follow up seasons. Take these numbers into consideration when preparing your draft, but don’t handcuff yourself to them.
The Many Lists of Three
The Many List of Three’s
Your probably asking yourself, why the List of Three’s? There are so many digits better then this prime number. Well the answer is simple. Three is a symbolic number in my life to date. It represents the time my alarm clock goes off every morning, the amount of outs in every inning in a baseball game, the number of strikes to record an out, and my personal favorite, the number of bowls of cereal I ingest every morning. Raisin Bran if your wondering.
Let’s get to it, The premise of this is simple, in no particular order I will pose a provocative question or statement, and follow it up with three answers.
Three "what was that" statements during "Mark McGwire coming clean" series of interviews.
1- "I experienced a lot of injuries, including a ribcage strain, a torn left heel muscle, a stress fracture of the left heel, and a torn right heel muscle. It was definitely a miserable bunch of years, and I told myself that steroids could help me recover faster. I thought they would help me heal and prevent injuries, too."
2- "The names I don't remember, but I did injectables….I preferred the orals. The steroids I took were on a very low dosage."
3- "Steroids did not help me, in any way, hit homeruns. I truly believe I was given the gifts from the Man Upstairs of being a home run hitter, ever since ... birth…There's not a pill or an injection that's going to give me, going to give any player the hand-eye coordination to hit a baseball,"
Three statements I would love to share with Mark McGwire after hearing his set of interviews:
1- Everyone and their mothers know that steroids do not help you recover from injuries. That is what HGH is for, ask Andy Pettitte. Every study about kinesiology plainly proves that steroids builds the body so rapidly that injuries often occur. Especially injuries to the extremities. Hmmm. Obviously McGwire didn’t go to his biology classes while attending college.
2- Mr. McGuire, your telling me that you ingested pills, and took inject able steroids and HGH for almost ten years and you don’t remember the names? Ten years? You would think to check the bottle from time to time
3- If steroids didn't help him any, what the hell was he taking them for? Of course steroids helped him.
My biggest problem with the cavalcade of interviews was miraculously Mark was able to cry, on cue in every single one of them. The charade is up, do me one favor, during spring training stay out of Alberts way. He actually has the talent from the Man Upstairs.
Three Biggest Free Agent Impacts:
1- John Lackey
2- Chone Figgins
3- Randy Wolf
John Lackeys signing shifts the balance of power back to the Red Soxs in the East, while Figgins will impact the entire West. Chone's departure from Anaheim leaves them vacant at leadoff, and will restructure the entire Seattle offense, impacting the middle of the order drastically. Wolfs signing with the Brewers can be the missing link in a rotation that has been ineffective since the departure of Sabathia. Replacing Sheets with Wolf in the rotation will help give the Brewers the stability they need to compete with the Cardinals this season.
Three Worst Off Season Signings:
1- Jason Bay
2- Hideki Matsui
3- Nick Johnson
Not only were the Mets pressured into making an off season splash, but they went against what they had been saying all along. We have a 20 million dollar budget this off-season. Opps, blew that away. Just Look at these 3 stats for Bay, compare them to holliday, then to the league, then tell me I’m wrong.
-Strike Outs
-Doubles
-Average
Factor in what Cardinals Paid for Holliday, and it all adds up to a lot of head aches. I would say that Mets should of paid extra money for Holliday, but he would never of agreed to hit at Citi Field. Ex. David Wright
Three Third Place Teams that can and will win their division this year:
1- Seattle
2- San Francisco
3- Milwaukee
Think all three teams have a very realistic chance of winning their division. Seattle and San Francisco both have strong rotations, and young talent in the field. With Braun and Fielder improving and a rebound from Corey Hart imminent. I would not be surprised to see the Brewers wearing their sunglasses at night this postseason.
Now With a fantasy Twist...
Three players who had MONSTER postseason and severely underperformed next season.
1- Carlos Beltran
2- BJ Upton
3- Cliff Lee
I know that only one occurred in the 2009 post season, but be aware of Cliff Lee. The previous two on the list all had an ADP somewhere in the first two rounds in fantasy drafts. Lee suitors will have to think about taking him in the same vicinity this year. Going back to the American League, shaky closer situation in Seattle. I’m Just saying.
Three Monumental Busts LAST season that will have a major impact this year:
1- Chris Davis
2- Francisco Liriano
3- Jimmy Rollins
I don’t even want to Add Jose Reyes into the equation to upset some of the readers. Its like bringing up Valtrex to someone with Herpes, its just not a good situation. Great now some of you are going to have an outbreak….. My apologies.
Chris Davis is to good a player not to break out. Pressing at the beginning of the season hurt him. He will strike out, but last years average was an anomaly. He was extremely unlucky, and if he can increase his contact rate just a tad. Look for Big Things.
Three Players who started, or almost started out on Teams you would never guess:
1- Johan Santana- Houston Astros left him unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft.
2- Hanley Ramirez- Boston Red Soxs traded him to acquire Josh Beckett
3- Mark Teixeira- Boston Red Soxs. Teixeira was originally chosen in the ninth round of the Major League Draft by the Boston Red Sox. Teixeira chose not to sign with the Red Sox, however, opting instead to play college baseball for Georgia Tech.
One Number THREE hitter who is Completely Undervalued, and can lead AL in RBI:
1- Jose Lopez
I know that all the other lists involved three names, but Jose stands alone here. This number three hitter has been disrespected, over looked and under hyped the last two seasons. Did you know the only second baseman last year with more RBI was Chase Utley. Three reasons everyone knows Jose Lopez name by years end?
1-Everyone knows Ichiro lead off for Seattle last two season, but who batted second? Names aren’t important, but the OBP of under .300, out of the number two slot the last two years combined is. His 90+ RBI total can only increase with a better number two hitter. Insert Chone Figgins
2- Imagine his statistics if they had a real Number 4 Hitter to hit behind him?
3- Jose Lopez can easily end the season as the third rated second baseman behind Utley and Kinsler.
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