
Zanderbot310
Oct 28, 2008 May 30, 2012 5 53
Just a sports fanatic looking for someone to talk sports with. I write for the Virginia Tech newpaper: The Collegiate Times. I also have my own blog: http://thepostup.com/ Follow me on twitter @zanderbot310
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2011 NBA Free-Agency: Top 8 Values
The 2011 NBA offseason has been and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, an example of basketball purgatory in every sense of the word with the unassuming lockout, European infested draft, and a lackluster class of free agents. However, being an optimistic fan that expects the season to occur, shortened, or not, I remain hopeful that the recent NBA power shift can continue with some smart signings by the teams that can afford them.
The "old-guard" teams like the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles, and the San Antonio appear to be capped out this offseason, giving the young teams on the rise like the Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, and the New Jersey Nets, who all have ample cap room, chances to continue to close the gap in talent and experience.
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2011 NBA Free-Agency: Top 8 Values
The 2011 NBA offseason has been and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, an example of basketball purgatory in every sense of the word with the unassuming lockout, European infested draft, and a lackluster class of free agents. However, being an optimistic fan that expects the season to occur, shortened, or not, I remain hopeful that the recent NBA power shift can continue with some smart signings by the teams that can afford them.
The "old-guard" teams like the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles, and the San Antonio appear to be capped out this offseason, giving the young teams on the rise like the Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, and the New Jersey Nets, who all have ample cap room, chances to continue to close the gap in talent and experience.
There are some big-names in the free-agent class of 2011 such as Tyson Chandler, Nene Hilario, and David West, but when considering what they bring on the court, their injury history, and then how those two things coincide with their respective asking prices, a misjudgment of how those factors mix can quickly become a burden to a team’s future aspirations.
The ability to properly gauge a free-agents potential value to your present and future team is one that will be essential to any team going into the "new NBA" where a hard cap looks imminent. So I present you with the top-8 values in the 2011 free-agent class.
8. Kwame Brown C
I would completely understand if anyone were to be initially skeptical about Kwame Brown’s title of being a "good value", but when all things are considered he can be an above-average backup center who will rebound and defend his position effectively all for a price somewhere around one-million dollars.
There are plenty of other backup centers out there who can provide more on both ends of the court, like Brad Miller, Brendan Haywood, and Louis Amundson, but their respective contracts are atrocious.
Kwame actually played well last year for a middling Charlotte team where he averaged 7.9 points and 6.8 rebounds in 26 minutes of work per game.
Despite his respectable numbers, Kwame’s "bust status" and inconsistencies over the years have prevented him from improving his financial worth. If I’m the GM of a contender that needs a few cheap pieces here and there to fill out the bench, ahem…Knicks, I would take a flyer on Kwame. There’s really nothing to lose with this guy.
Expected Suitors: New York Knicks, Charlotte Bobcats, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat
Winner: New York Knicks
7. Tayshaun Prince SF
Every February, leading up to the trade deadline, there is at least one trade rumor that is centered on a glue guy going to a contending team looking for that missing piece. It seems like Tayshaun Prince has been involved in one of them every year for the last three, or four years. Well, now teams can acquire his services without giving up any assets.
The most recent NBA championship team, the Dallas Mavericks, is just one big sticky compilation of glue guys around a star in Dirk Nowitzki. I believe that you could switch Tayshaun Prince with Deshawn Stevenson, or Shawn Marion, and you would get close to the same results.
Prince can post-up and finish well like a Shawn Marion, but he can also shoot the three effectively (a career 37% shooter from behind the arc). Prince’s greatest known asset is his length and defensive prowess as people often forget that he was an integral part of the dominant Piston defense that made them perennial Eastern Conference contenders for a good part of the previous decade.
I don’t expect Prince to garner any more than the veteran’s minimum because of his age and back injuries, but having him as the glue guy who can defend the stars at the small-forward position would be a huge boost for any playoff team looking to improve at that spot.
Expected Suitors: Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Milwaukee Bucks, Atlanta Hawks
Winner: Los Angeles Clippers
6. Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute SF
Mbah a Moute is basically a Tayshaun Prince-lite without the versatility on the offensive end. However, Mbah a Moute is a bit bigger and can defend his position in the post much better than his older counterpart. This is where Mbah a Moute’s value becomes greater than that of Prince’s; he is only 24 years old and despite his limited offensive skills, he is already recognized as one of the top wing defenders in the entire league.
Mbah a Moute is a restricted free-agent, so there still is a pretty good chance that he will remain a defensive gem for the hard-nosed Milwaukee coach, Scott Skiles.
As a result of his limited offensive ability, he will not be considered an A-list free-agent, so he can be had for a somewhat reasonable price. He is only 24 years old, so he still has time to expand his game on offense.
His upside isn’t enormous in any way, but the least you will get out of him is a top-5 overall defender for the next 4-6 years. If a team can get him for somewhere between two and four million, I think he can be the steal of this offseason.
Expected Suitors: Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Utah Jazz
Winner: Milwaukee Bucks
5. Chuck Hayes PF/C
Hayes is an extremely undersized center at 6’6 who has received starter’s minutes because his 7’6 teammate, Yao Ming, has been injured for basically all of the last two years.
Hayes is a thick, tough, and tenacious frontcourt player than does almost nothing outside of playing defense and rebounding. The team rebounding and defensive statistics for the Houston Rockets last year were below-average because the undersized Hayes was exploited by bigger frontlines. However, if he is paired with a bigger power forward, or center, his flaws can be masked and his skills will become much more valuable.
He draws comparisons to a smaller Joel Anthony, or a smaller Anderson Varejao. Hayes is another energy/hustle guy that can give his opponents fits because of his relentlessness and strength on the block. His small stature will prove to hinder is financial status, so I think he can be had for between two and four million per year.
Hayes can be a starter if paired with the proper supporting cast, but for most teams, he can be an elite backup center that provides the prototypical "energy of the bench" that every contender needs.
Expected Suitors: Houston Rockets, New Jersey Nets, Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks
Winner: New Jersey Nets
4. Grant Hill SF
With the help of the legendary training staff in Phoenix, Grant Hill has resurrected his career and become a nice scoring wing that can play some defense from time to time. Despite his physical degeneration, Hill still has the experience and basketball IQ that few other players in the league have.
Hill saw his minutes take a hit after the trade that brought in Vince Carter and I think that his new role as a third, or fourth wing player off the bench could serve a playoff team make the leap towards contention next year.
Hill can still contribute on the offensive end with a decent mid-range jumper and the ability to create his own shot (which is a skill that is not as common in the NBA as one might think). However, due to his limited athletic ability, he won’t be able to stay with a Lebron James, or Carmelo Anthony on defense.
I can guarantee that a team will be getting a player in Grant Hill who will not falter in crunch time (ahemm…Lebrick) and knows where he needs to be, or what to do with the ball when the game is on the line.
Grant Hill can be a leader for his team in the first year because he is so highly respected by his peers for his past successes; his high character and efficient game will make him a highly sought after free-agent for any team looking for veteran leadership.
Expected Suitors: Los Angeles Clippers, Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder
Winner: Oklahoma City Thunder (match made in heaven)
3. Shane Battier SF
Another former Blue Devil, and another great value in free agency. Shane Battier may not be the flashiest of players on offense, or on defense, but he is as consistent and efficient as any.
Battier is a good shooter as he has averaged 39% from three and 75% from the free throw line through his ten years in the league.
Battier’s claim to fame has been with his tenacious defense and high basketball IQ. Battier is still considered an elite wing defender, when he’s healthy of course, that can still start for a team at the small-forward position if he is surrounded by offensively superior players that will mask Battier’s own offensive deficiencies.
The reason I have Battier above Grant Hill and Tayshaun Prince, who are relatively similar players, is because of his age (32) and his remaining ability to guard the best wings in the game. Rarely will one ever see a defender completely shut down a Paul Pierce, or Lebron James, but those annoying defenders who really get up into the grills of the stars, will force the stars out of their games and instead commit silly fouls.
Shane Battier is worthy of a multi-year contract and an opportunity to start in the role of defensive stopper. The Mavericks showed the world how important it is to have a guy like Shawn Marion on a team and I think Battier can fit that mold on a championship team.
Expected Suitors: Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz, Milwaukee Bucks, New Jersey Nets
Winner: Utah Jazz (replacement for Andrei Kirilenko)
2. Tyson Chandler C
Tyson Chandler will be in competition with the other "marquee" players of this year’s class of free agents for the biggest contract. I would not be surprised in the least if he gets rewarded for his all-star caliber play last year with a 3-4 year contract worth about 8-10 million dollars per year.
I could probably count the number of true centers on my own hands, few of which are as talented as Chandler on the defensive end. Though some can claim that last year was an aberration and that the elevation of play is typical of any player heading into free agency, I think his uniqueness and the skill that he brings on the defensive end over-rule the arguments against him. Chandler also has his youth to cling to when negotiating what his asking price is, as he is still only 28 years old.
Chandler is very limited on the offensive end as he scores almost all of his points on dunks and alley oops; I also wouldn’t bet on him developing a post-up game in the future because of his long and lanky frame.
However, he is an elite rebounder, shot blocker, and front court defender. Players of his ilk are few and far between; he can be the difference between a first round exit and an appearance in the finals.
The combination of Chandler’s leadership, that was alluded to by Dirk himself many times throughout the season, and his skills on the defensive end make him a great value to any team lacking a defensive presence in the front-court.
Expected Suitors: Dallas Mavericks, Toronto Raptors, Sacramento Kings, New Jersey Nets (Lopez + Chandler = Twin Towers reborn), Detroit Pistons, Minnesota Timberwolves
Winner: Dallas Mavericks (If a hard-cap isn’t immediately put into effect)
1. Wilson Chandler SG/SF
Wilson Chandler is not a name that is highly recognized amongst NBA fans, but he will be in a few years. Chandler is 6’8 and 230 pounds who, though not elite, can defend shooting guards, small forwards, and power forwards. He has the athleticism that gives him the potential to be a poor-man’s Lebron James. Yes, I said it. Lebron James. The "poor man" part comes from his lack of passing ability, or the ability to shut down a player on defense. The similarities come from his dominating play in the fast break and in transition during which he can be one of the best finishers in the game.
Chandler can create his own shot and he also has a pretty solid mid-range jumper to combine with his excellent slashing ability. The thing I like most about Chandler is his versatility because he can be a mismatch against almost any team as he is too big for shooting guards and too quick for small/power forwards.
The guy is only 24 years old and his PER has increased every year he has been in the league. One might wonder why would someone want a guy that was one of the mainstays in every trade rumor involving the Knicks and Carmelo Anthony, but I believe the reason he was being offered is because the Knicks knew they wouldn’t be able to keep him from leaving in free agency if they were to also have Carmelo on the team.
I’m not sure that he will light the world on fire next year, so I don’t see veteran teams that are looking to win now going after Wilson Chandler. However, he can be a good get for a young team looking for a second or third option on offense. I really like this guy in case you haven’t noticed.
Expected Suitors: Denver Nuggets, Charlotte Bobcats, New Jersey Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Toronto Raptors
Winner: Charlotte Bobcats
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NBA Mock Draft 2011 2.0 (With No Trades)
Excuse me for the simplicity and lack of explanation for this Mock Draft, but with the exception of about 10-15 players throughout this whole draft, I hate this draft and any team projection (post-draft) would be meaningless. Most of these players will not get over fifteen minutes per game on the teams that draft them, let alone be starters and actually have an effect on the team. Any projection of this year’s draft must also be taken with a grain of salt as I believe that there will be at least one, and if we are lucky, two draft altering trades that will shake even Chad Ford’s Mock Draft. I mean come on; would you really like to have Kawhi Leonard (who I do like) over Tony Parker? In most years, a swap of Tony Parker for the 5th pick in the draft would be very unpopular (Parker for Demarcus Cousins and his potential: Hell NO!), but the gap in NBA value between the greatest Leonard can be (a smaller Gerald Wallace) and Parker is pretty sizeable, which is partly the reason for why I think that that rumor is the likeliest to happen of all of the rumors I have read about over the past couple of days. Anyway, I could go on and on about how bad this draft is, but I hope you enjoy this Mock Draft.
*** = Important Notes
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving *** I love Irving, and I think he can be a Deron Williams-type of passer/scorer for the Cavs; he can and will resurrect the franchise.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Derrick Williams *** On the flipside, I hate Derrick Williams and see him as an absolute bust; he’s the typical athlete who dominates slow white guys at the college-level, but will get a reality check in the NBA. I hate tweeners too by the way.
3. Utah Jazz: Brandon Knight
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Enes Kanter
5. Toronto Raptors: Kawhi Leonard
6. Washington Wizards: Jan Vesely
7. Sacramento Kings: Kemba Walker
8. Detroit Pistons: Tristan Thompson *** This is one of my favorite picks in the draft. For some reason I just really like this kid with his tenacity and rebounding down low; he will compliment Greg Monroe’s scoring and passing prowess in the frontcourt.
9. Charlotte Bobcats: Marcus Morris
10. Milwaukee Bucks: Jonas Valanciunas
11. Golden State Warriors: Bismack Biyombo *** "Big Mack" Biyombo, a nickname that Biyombo mentioned to Davy Rothbart of Grantland, is another guy I believe in because of his confidence and tenacity on defense. I’m glad to see him go to an up and coming team like the Warriors.
12. Utah Jazz: Chris Singleton
13. Phoenix Suns: Alec Burks
14. Houston Rockets: Nikola Vucevic
15. Indiana Pacers: Jimmer Fredette
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Jordan Hamilton
17. New York Knicks: Klay Thompson *** No I did not fix this because I’m a Knicks fan; I just don’t believe that he is a great fit for any of the last six teams especially with Biyombo going to Golden State and Valanciunas going to Milwaukee.
18. Washington Wizards: Markieff Morris
19. Charlotte Bobcats: Marshon Brooks
20. Minnesota Timberwolves: Donatas Montiejunas
21. Portland Trailblazers: Kenneth Faried *** The Portland Trailblazers will sneak under the radar with this pick, but they will challenge for Western Conference supremacy next year; just watch!
22. Denver Nuggets: Tobias Harris
23. Houston Rockets: Nikola Mirotic
24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Jimmy Butler
25. Boston Celtics: Iman Shumpert *** The Celtics have been searching for a perimeter defender in the mold of Tony Allen, so I give them Iman Shumpert. You’re welcome.
26. Dallas Mavericks: Davis Bertans
27. New Jersey Nets: Reggie Jackson
28. Chicago Bulls: Tyler Honeycutt
29. San Antonio Spurs: Kyle Singler
30. Chicago Bulls: Charles Jenkins
A Breakdown of Dwight Howard's Future
The full article is here
In case you haven’t already heard, Dwight Howard spoke to NBA.com correspondent, Scott Howard-Cooper, on Monday concerning his feelings for his current Orlando Magic team and his prospects as a free-agent after the 2011-2012 NBA season:
“I want to win a championship. I think the owners have to really know that. That's been my goal and my mission since I've been in the NBA -- to win a championship. I don't have side goals or agendas. My main goal is to win a championship. I want to have 14 other guys who feel the same way. Sometimes guys are there whole-heartedly and then sometimes I've had teammates allow people getting in their ears and things like that effect the way that they play and approach the game. I just told them, 'We've got to have guys who are going to play hard 48 minutes and who are going to battle the other team, who are going to fight night in and night out for a championship’…There's no other place I'd rather be besides Orlando. At the end of the day, as far as what I want to accomplish as a basketball player, to be one of the greats, you have to win championships. That's how I see it. I want to do that in Orlando, and hopefully we can get it done.... Everybody's asking me from the beginning of the season until today where am I playing in a year? Am I getting traded? I have no clue. As of right now, I want to be in Orlando.”
During this conversation with NBA.com, Dwight confirmed that he will become a free-agent after next season. However, anything short of a championship would cause him to reconsider his future with the Magic. I can’t help but come away feeling that Dwight Howard is past the disgruntled stage, not only because he is clearly upset with the attitude of his teammates, but the odds are stacked against the Orlando Magic front-office when it comes to improving upon last year’s team.
Unlike some superstars of the past who have left their original teams with a relatively sour taste left in their mouths, a la [Lebron] Prince James and Shaquille O’Neal, it appears that Dwight Howard truly loves Orlando and wants to give the Magic front-office every opportunity to show him that they are truly committed to him and his desire to win a championship. The general manager of the Orlando Magic, Otis Smith, has arguably the toughest job in basketball as he knows that in order to keep his centerpiece he must rid the team of at least one of the two god-awful contracts that are weighing his team down. These two contracts belong to Gilbert Arenas (owed 62.4 million dollars over the next 3 years) and Hedo Turkoglu (owed 44 million dollars over the next 4 years) respectively. These two players are probably in the Top 5 in the league in the “worst contracts” category, both commanding zero trade value. The only way Otis Smith will be able to trade either of these players is if he takes on another bad contract, “Not again!” says Dwight Howard, or package them with one of their plethora of cheaper assets that do actually have some trade value. Unfortunately, in this case, “plethora of assets” means more like one, or two players: perhaps J.J. Redick and Brandon, both of whom are not exactly “highly coveted” by other teams. The only way the Magic can transform their team into a contender is if Arenas returns to his 06’ form (28.4 PPG and 6 AST), and/or Turkoglu plays like he did the year he won the league’s most improved player award (19.5 PPG, 5 AST, 5.7 RPG). If either of these things happens, their respective trade values would rise considerably, giving Otis Smith some semblance of hope in acquiring a second star, or a championship-caliber supporting-cast. But come on, let’s be real here. The chances of either of those things happening are slim to none. So let’s assume the Magic regress from last year’s team that was eliminated in the 1st Round and assume that Otis Smith is forced to trade the best center in the league before he leaves for nothing.
According to the NBA rumor mill, which is now beginning to gain steam in these days following the NBA Finals, Dwight wants to be in a big-market and well, he wants to be an recogninzed as one of the all-time greats. The most important thing is that he is looking for is that he wants to be on a winning team (who doesn’t?). I don’t think that Dwight will seek as much control over the trade talks as Melo’ did over this past season, since Dwight will have a bit more empathy for the team he is leaving behind than maybe Melo’, or Lebron did. That is of course pure speculation, but judging from what I know of him as a person, his high-character will make the transition for the Magic much less tumultuous than that of Cleveland (I’m not going to mention Denver because they came out just fine). Anyway, these are the teams that I believe have either no chance, or no interest in acquiring Dwight:
· Milwaukee Bucks – ehhh, sorry…Not enough national appeal
· Philadelphia 76ers – I thought about them for a second, but they would have to give up all of the players that would intrigue Dwight to play there, just to get him.
· Toronto Raptors – Canada, seriously?
· Cleveland Cavaliers – too soon
· Detroit Pistons – mediocre team in an undesirable area
· Indiana Pacers – Midwest and not exactly a prime destination for superstars on the move. They definitely have the assets though.
· Atlanta Hawks – Did the writing version of a “double-take” on this one. Dwight is from Atlanta and the Hawks have the assets to get him, but trading him in the division seems out of the realm of possibility for the Magic.
· Charlotte Bobcats – If they could put MJ in any trade proposal, then maybe.
· Miami Heat – Sorry Jeff Van Gundy, Pat Riley is going to keep this party going.
· Washington Wizards – They have a long way to go before they make the playoffs and on a less important note, their trade assets are lacking.
· Phoenix Suns – This definitely isn’t because of the location, more as a result of their aging roster. Alright, I’ll just say it. Nash is getting old.
· Sacramento Kings – Maloofs.
· Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis isn’t exactly the kind of market I believe he is looking for; they don’t need him anyway.
· New Orleans Hornets – They already have their own superstar to worry about.
· San Antonio Spurs – No concrete reason. I just can’t see it and I haven’t heard any mention of them as potential suitors.
· Denver Nuggets – They seem content with the young talent they have in place.
· Oklahoma City Thunder – Sam Presti is not giving up Russell Westbrook.
· Portland Trailblazers – They’ll be busy trying to get Chris Paul; they already have enough quality bigs.
· Utah Jazz – Mormons….
· Minnesota Timberwolves – KAAAHHHHNN!!
I leave Otis Smith with nine teams that he can negotiate a trade with. Of course these teams have their respective pros and cons in terms of what they have to offer: market, readiness to win, and trade assets. However, only one team can win the Dwight Howard contest and acquire the rights to my favorite player in the league (what an honor!). This contest will have tiers. Once a team’s GM gets past a tier, he finds himself one step closer to the end of the rainbow.
Tier 1: Cool Idea Bro, but Really?
Boston Celtics: They will have a better chance if Dwight is to become a free-agent as they will only have Rondo and Paul Pierce under contract after this upcoming season. Any trade package from Boston’s end would have to involve Rondo. Without Rondo in the 2012-2013 season, what would be the point of Dwight even leaving Orlando in the first place? One could argue that Jeff Green (assuming he will be re-signed this summer) could be packaged with Ray Allen and a couple of 1st Round-Picks, but I don’t think the value of this trade package is up to snuff with what other teams have to offer. Sorry Celtics fans, you’ll have to find your cornerstone of the future somewhere else. And no, Rondo is not a superstar and never will be unless he develops his jump-shot and free-throw stroke.
Los Angeles Clippers: Let’s start with the Clippers having one of the worst, if not the worst owner in basketball. His name is Donald Sterling and he just lost a $13 million lawsuit to the former general manager and coach of the Clippers, Mike Dunleavy, as a result of his refusal to pay off the remainder of his contract. This is just one of many embarrassing stories, ranging from claims of racism to sexual harassment, that litter his resume as an NBA owner. However, the Clippers have a multitude of trade chips that would command some serious consideration. Al-Farouq Aminu, Eric Bledsoe, Deandre Jordan, and maybe even Eric Gordon would be involved in trade talks. A Dwight Howard-Blake Griffin duo would rival any front-court combination in history. However, with the Clippers forever in the shadow of the Lakers and their winning owner, I don’t believe that Dwight would let this trade happen. Sterling is in some ways the antithesis to the philanthropist that is Dwight Howard.
New York Knicks: It pains me to say this, but I don’t think they have enough assets to put forth in a trade for Dwight Howard. Uhhh…well I got that off my chest. Their projected trade package would have to be Chauncey Billups, Toney Douglas, Landry Fields, and whatever 1st round picks they have left. Billups only has 3-4 more serviceable years left, while Fields and Douglas will be decent starters at the absolute best. The Knicks have the biggest market, the best arena in the world (MSG), and an owner willing to spend money, but their best bet at getting Dwight will come if he becomes a free-agent. I will all, but guarantee that he will be a Knick if he becomes a free-agent, but I seriously doubt he makes it that far. I completely understand the Knick’s logic when they decided to pick up Billups’ option as I believe he can be used to fetch a lesser known player. A trade for Dwight Howard would have to involve a budding star, or a player with serious star potential and the Knicks just don’t have that to offer.
Tier 2: It’s Not You…It’s Me.
Houston Rockets: The Houston Rockets have been hovering on the brink of making the playoffs and being a lottery team over the last few years. This happened in large part because of Yao’s annual injury that crushes their hopes of contending in the stacked Western Conference. The general manager of the Rockets, Daryl Morey, has been stockpiling assets for a trade involving a player of Dwight Howard’s caliber. Morey’s strategy of stockpiling young, cheap talent has been obvious since the pieces he acquires rarely fit together. For example, he has accumulated a glut of power-forwards that don’t really complement each other at all: Patrick Patterson, Luis Scola, and Jordan Hill. Not only has this collection of young talent bought Morey and the Rockets trade flexibility, but they will have room to sign players in free-agency even if Dwight were already on the team. Houston also has the “no income-tax” thing going for them, so that’s a plus. The reason I question Houston’s viability as a serious contender for Dwight Howard again comes when I try to see what will be left after a trade with the Magic. I believe that a potential package from the Rockets would be Kevin Martin, Patrick Patterson, Chase Budinger, and maybe Terrence Williams. Now if I was Morey and I knew that a guy like Chris Paul, or Deron Williams was going to be a free-agent, then I do the deal in a heartbeat (since they would have a serious chance at signing either of them). I would also do the deal if the Rockets really hit a homerun in this year’s draft with a guy like Jordan Hamilton, or Chris Singleton. I just think that if neither of those two scenarios happens, the Rockets will still be a few years from contending for a title, which is time that Dwight does not want to waste.
Chicago Bulls: The Bulls got too close to getting to the Finals to break their chemistry so soon. They have a laundry list of valuable assets that I’m sure Otis Smith would love to have in Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, Omer Asik, Luol Deng, and whoever they draft with their two first round picks in the upcoming draft. The weaknesses of the Bulls this year were readily apparent this year, and none of them involved a lack of a defensive presence in the frontcourt. Joakim Noah is arguably the second-best center in basketball, so why trade him and other assets for a moderate upgrade at a place of strength? Don’t get me wrong, a Rose-Howard combination would be devastating, but it just doesn’t make sense to me. The reason I have the Bulls in this tier is because if they do decide that they want him, they can have him. I just don’t believe that they actually pull the trigger in the end.
Los Angeles Lakers: This will probably surprise a lot of people as most think that Dwight has all, but gotten traded to the Lakers already (or at least Magic Johnson wishes that were so). However, the Lakers are in a really weird situation with their humongous contracts and outspoken owner, whose son (who will succeed his father as the owner of the Lakers) recently declared that Andrew Bynum was “untouchable”. You thought Dwyane Wade and Lebron James were similar? Well you can take this to the bank, Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum cannot and will not play together, ever. Now that we have that out of the way, I think we can agree that Bynum would be a part of any trade package for the services of Dwight. If this trade would have happened two years ago: Bynum and Odom straight up for Dwight, I would say it is a done deal. However, Bynum has developed a reputation for being injury-prone and that scares a lot of general managers, especially when it is concerning a big man. The seemingly logical thing to do is eliminate Bynum from the trade all-together and replace him with Pau Gasol, which I think would realistically work as long as some extra salaries came from Orlando along with Dwight, but the goal here is to get rid of Andrew Bynum. That leaves us with a trade involving Pau, Bynum, Howard, and probably Gilbert Arenas, which would be an absolute turnoff for the Lakers front-office (probably Magic too). The Lakers are already way over the salary cap; I doubt they would be willing to take on a massive contract like that of Gilbert Arenas, or Hedo Turkoglu for that matter. For the sake of Laker fans, let’s say this trade goes through. Now you’re left with an aging Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Dwight of course, and a whole lot of scrubs. Does that team beat the Miami Heat, or even the Oklahoma City Thunder? The only way the Lakers get Dwight is through a multi-team trade, but their chances would still questionable.
Tier 3: Duhhh….Winning!
Golden State Warriors: “Mamma, there goes that man!” The Warriors will be serious contenders for Dwight Howard this year. Let me break it down for you. The Warriors now have an owner in Joe Lacob that reminds me a lot of Mark Cuban, who is the owner of the 2011 NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks by the way. Lacob has assembled an all-star team of front-office suits with the legendary Jerry West advising an already experienced general manager in Larry Riley. Lacob has also made what I believe to be the best head coaching hire so far this offseason in the form of Mark Jackson/Mike Malone. The future prospects for the Golden State Warriors look to be very bright as long as Lacob doesn’t butt in to the point that it brings the real authority of the front-office suits into question. The most intriguing aspect of the Warriors is their young talent and desirable contracts. I think Stephen Curry is going to have a breakout year next year; he’s going to shock the world everyone. I’m thinking along the lines of 22 PPG and 7 AST per game next year. Their best trade package would involve Curry of course, but I think they have the assets to acquire Dwight even without involving Curry in the deal. I believe that Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh, and whoever they draft in the upcoming draft will be more than enough to get Dwight. A combination of Stephen Curry, David Lee, and Dwight Howard would be deadly on the offensive end. They may be lacking on the defensive end, but this trio would make the Warriors legitimate title contenders from the get-go. They would all complement each other too perfectly not to succeed. The Warriors are a serious dark-horse that I haven’t heard anyone talk about. Just don’t be surprised if you hear about the Warriors being in discussion with Otis Smith over a potential deal because you already read it here.
Dallas Mavericks: “I heard they do things big in Dallas, and if we do things big, than that means not 1, 2, 3, 4, 5!” joked Tyson Chandler, when asked about what the future holds, during the championship celebration in Dallas. Dirk has a three, or four years left in his prime and it does not sound so ridiculous to think that they might win the championship next year as well with the team in place. However, they are aging and I think it would be in their best interest to build for the future, so that they don’t experience some extended period of mediocrity. The Mavs have some decent young talent in Rodrigue Beaubois, Corey Brewer, and Dominique Jones (all guards). Their top priority this offseason is to retain Tyson Chandler, one of the top defensive centers in the NBA. However, this man was the second overall pick in 2001 and has been very underwhelming for every year of his career except for the outlier that was last year, and especially these recent playoffs. To bet on Tyson Chandler to be the 2010-2011 Tyson Chandler is a risk, so to package some of the integral parts of this recent championship to get perhaps THE integral part of any future championship teams would be much less of a risk. Dwight is as much of a sure thing as anyone that the Mavericks could acquire in free-agency, or trade.. Even if he loses all of the offensive developments that he has made over the last year, you still get the most dominant big man since Shaquille O’Neal and a perennial defensive player of the year. Dwight is entering his prime and Dirk still has the last half of his prime to play through. This combination would be even more lethal than any Chandler-Nowitzki duo. If I’m Mark Cuban, I package Tyson Chandler, Roddy Beaubois, Brendan Haywood (who could go to another team in a three-way deal), Corey Brewer, and a first round pick for Dwight. If this happens, the Lakers and Spurs could both kiss their hopes of getting to the Western Conference Finals goodbye as the West will then run through Memphis, Oklahoma City, and Dallas. Dallas fans have the infamous Mark Cuban and the “no income-tax” perk going for them, so maybe Chandler’s prediction isn’t so preposterous.
New Jersey/Brooklyn Nets: The Nets are the trendy pick by most critics as they have the talent to offer in Brook Lopez and a move to Brooklyn to sell. Mikhail Prokhorov, who probably makes more in one year than the whole of the NBA, has big plans for his big American investment. Bringing star power to New Jersey/Brooklyn has been the goal over the last two years and I believe that they made serious gains with the addition of Deron Williams. I don’t see the Nets as much more than a sexy pick at this point. The Nets think that Deron Williams has all, but signed his extension, but judging from reports that he was in the Mavericks locker-room after their Finals clinching win, I wouldn’t say the retention of Deron Williams is a done deal. The Nets have zero talent that would be left over if after a Dwight Howard trade, outside of Deron of course. The Nets really gave up a lot in the Deron Williams trade and I think that that will come back to bite them in the end. I understand their philosophy of creating cap-space to provide flexibility for themselves during their transition to Brooklyn, but they are relying on the unknown too much. If the appeal of being in Brooklyn and working with Jay-Z really meant all that much, then one of Lebron, Melo’, or Amar’e would be a Net at this point. A Deron-Dwight duo would be pretty cool going into the 2012-2013 season, but I just don’t see it happening. We will see.
Dwight Howard has emerged from the talks concerning the uncertainty of his future as a much more respectable and loyal superstar than what we as fans have grown to be used to. At least he informed his employer of his future plans, giving them time to plan for the future if he does in fact leave the team. Dwight Howard has a lot of respect and love for the Orlando Magic and it appears like he desperately wants to stay with the team. Isn’t that what we were expecting from Lebron last summer? We wanted a guy that at least expressed empathy and love for not only his first team, but for the fans that watched him play since childhood. Lebron and Melo’ set the bar low when it comes to paying respect their respective employers. Dwight is bringing that bar back up to where it should be, and resetting the standard for the NBA players. Unfortunately for Otis Smith, too many things have to go right for him to even have a shot at keeping his superstar.
Let the drama begin.
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Donnie Walsh Gone! Panic?!
Hey guys, I was stunned at the news yesterday about Donnie, but I have spent some time trying to rationalize it and I think it has worked. I mean we still have Amar'e and Melo', come on!
This post came from my blog: The Post Up
In case you haven’t heard the news already, the president/general manager of the New York Knicks, Donnie Walsh, reportedly came to a mutual agreement with Knicks owner James Dolan that he would not be returning in the same position after his contract expires on June 30th. Donnie Walsh had reportedly asked for more autonomy in his position and also a two year extension, so that he could complete the rebuilding process that he started in 2008. Walsh’s wishes were not granted and instead of being welcomed with open arms, as many current Knicks fans would, Dolan proposed a 40% salary decrease in any extra year on his deal. It is obvious that Dolan and Walsh did mutually agree on something, which is that they were not compatible and that together, the future well-being of the Knicks would be in jeopardy.
Many would disagree with me and would say that Walsh is such a great man, an elder statesman of sorts, that should be given more respect and control by the Dolan. With the Walsh’s failure to acquire Lebron last summer and his subsequent reluctance to propose a desirable trade to the Nuggets for Carmelo Anthony, Dolan became fed up with Walsh’s conservatism and took matters into his own hands. There were rumors that were spread that Dolan orchestrated the Melo’ trade and that he should be to blame for the Knicks lack of depth and youth. True, or not, the trade has brought hope and excitement to New York. With two legitimate superstars like Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony, the foundation is set and others will come. I think that this is what Dolan believes as well and the trade that occurred was somewhat of an act of desperation to complete his team’s foundation (People discount the inclusion of Billups in the trade; he really presents good value as a point guard and expiring contract next season.).
Walsh’s demise was not an act of desperation by Dolan. Dolan knew exactly what he was doing over the last month and I have believed that the changing of the guard that we will be seeing over the coming months was imminent all along. There is a responsibility that the owner of the New York Knicks has, which is to create and maintain a winner that will not only satisfy fans in the Big Apple, but also challenge the Yankees for popularity amongst fans. Walsh re-established the Knicks in the Eastern Conference as a playoff contender, but now they need to take the next step. Things move fast in the big city, and I just don’t think that Walsh could keep up.
Over the last few years, the stories with the Knicks have been: who will the Knicks get in free-agency next summer, who can they trade for next year, how much cap-space will they have next year. The speculation always pertains to what will happen months, or sometimes years down the road. The Knicks have the ground-work set to win now. Knicks fans don’t necessarily need a big three to be satisfied as basketball fans. When I think of the New York Knicks franchise, I think of a grind-it-out dirty team with a defensive tenacity that overshadows their offensive potential. The Knicks, with the help of Coach Mike D’Antoni, have become the complete opposite of the last few years with their top-5 offense and pathetic defense. I have confidence that Amare and Melo’ can improve defensively especially when considering Amare’s heightened role as leader on the team and Melo’s importance to the city he was born in. The two should feel a responsibility to their team and fans to play better defense. However stars also should also be pushed to improve defensively, but unfortunately with D’Antoni, they lack the necessary motivation to play defense.
This is where the ousting of Walsh may prove to benefit the Knicks as D’Antoni has been placed on the coaching bubble. D’Antoni has been subject to mass criticism by fans for his defensive ineptitudes and inabilities to truly coach and adapt to situations. It seems like he is just a revolutionary offensive mind that should be kept in the chair next to the head coach as an assistant. This is pure speculation, but I believe that D’Antoni is all but gone at this point. I realize he is still owed six million for next year, but Dolan has shown no signs of bashfulness when it comes to spending money over the years. If taking that next step toward becoming a championship contender means hiring a new coach, I don’t think Dolan will hesitate to welcome a new face and leader for the Knicks.
I’m not going to give a whole list of guys who I think should coach the Knicks, instead I will just recommend Mark Jackson for the job as I think he is a no brainer as coach of the Knicks. He is everything I think the Knicks need. He is charismatic, defensive-minded, humbling, and a proven player that will garner respect from current stars like Melo’ and Amare. This all going without saying that he is worshipped by Knicks fans as one of the greatest point-guards of all-time.
The man to bring him in as coach should be Mark Warkentien in the general manager position, who is an assistant for Walsh and was the GM for the Denver Nuggets before this year. Warkentien built some really solid teams around Melo’ when he was in Denver, and I always thought that they were one player away from challenging the Lakers and Spurs for supremacy in the West. Well, he would come in with two stars making the job much easier for him this time around
I would not panic Knicks fans. You still have two of the best players in the league and some very nice pieces that will all but guarantee a playoff berth in next season’s playoffs. Championship teams aren’t built overnight and Donnie Walsh realized that, but it appears as though his timetable for success was much more extensive than Dolan’s. I think with the proper changes to the front-office and the coaching staff, the Knicks will have a chance to contend for the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks are a few players away from title contenders, but with a more aggressive front-office, I think the Knicks will begin to challenge the Yankees for supremacy in the Big Apple sooner rather than later.
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