SB Nation User Blog: Zboy

Alternative trade scenario for Milsap

Zboy — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 20:55:45 -0000

Yesterday, I posted a possible explanation for KP's signing Milsap - A multiple player trade for an elite guard after December 15. An alternative explanation, also based on KP's desire to attain an additional elite guard, focuses on the tremendous financial pressure that Utah must be feeling.

What if KP's goal is Deron Williams. Yes, I know that Utah has on several occasions identified him as untouchable. For a moment, though, just consider the possibilities.

Utah doesn't want to retain Boozer [too expensive,disloyal, likely to leave next year, Milsap a better, cheaper fit] but for the same reason, no one else wants him. Also, Utah NEEDS financial relief.

Chicago doesn't want Hinrich [overpaid, far less attractive than Rose] and needs a rugged post presence.

Portland doesn't really want Hinrick [too expensive, not a signifcant upgrade to Blake, stymies exploration of Bayless upside]

No other teams, save of OKC [which seems exhausted] can accept Boozer's $12 M salary or would be willing to take the risk of signing him next year.

So, here's a 3 team possibility. Utah resigns Milsap after we rescind our offer sheet [with Milsap's consent]; Boozer goes to Chicago for Hinrich and perhaps a draft choice from us to bridge the small salary gap issue. We send Travis, Rudy, Bayless, cash and perhpas a draft choice to Utah for Williams. Given Utah's needs, maybe, we could do it with less.

I take it to be obvious that the deal would benefit both the Bulls and the Blazers. Chicago gets an all star poewer forward for a decent point guard who will be relegated to the bench. We get an all star point guard who fits both our style of play and our coach's fancy leaving us, assuming Nic develops his potential, with an all all star starting line up. What about the Jazz?. They would have. a starting five of Hinrick, Rudy, Milsap, Okur, and Kirilenko with Travis, Bayless, Korver, Harpring and Miles coming off the bench. Not so bad - maybe even improved. And of course that does not take into consideraton the significant cap relief and cash that they would realize.

Ffor the record, we would be left with Williams, Brandon, Nic, LA and Greg starting primarily backup up by Blake, Martel, and Joel. We would also have our rookies [Pendergarph, Cunnigham and Mills, whatever else Utah had to send over to make the deal work, and space for our European holdovers.

Could this be one of the possibilites that KP has in mind?

Trading Up

Zboy — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 04:10:30 -0000

As much as I dislike raising trade possibilities which are supported only by speculation, two indisputable circumstances suggest that a major move lies ahead for the Trailblazers. Both circumstances are obvious, and the possibilties seem very promising.

First, the Blazers have too many talented players either to play or to hold. Brandon, Greg, LA, and Rudy all have all star potential. Joel and Steve are plainly assets. Travis, Martel, Sergio, Channin, and Nic all have obvious value. And, that list doesn't include Jerryd, who showed potential during summer league and Ike. In total, we have 11 players who reasonably expect miunutes.

This situation is at best unstable. During the season, we can expect to play say nine, and during the playoffs eight. At best, the players who don't play will either demand to be traded [ala Sergio] or will leave at their first glimpse of free agency. At worst, they will over time create dissension. The obvious solution is a 2 or more likely 3 for 1 trade where we receive an upgrade for a starter's position. Of course the key question is who might be available.

To answer this question, brings us to the second relevant circumstance; the Blazers present situation makes possible the acquisition of a truly great player. Much talk about the Blazers upgrade possibilities has focused on the cap room [probably 20+ million] we will have after the 2009 season. I think that room may produce a bounty but not for the obvious reason. First of all, the free agent players available next summer would not help us much if at all. We presently have great talent and I, like moany of you, would be content to wait to see who will rise to the top. Moreover, great talent seldom moves through free agency. The cap room required is too great and the putative acquiring team would have to give up so much that the star player would likely find the team unattractive. Take for example New York and LeBron. Sure, the Knicks play in a huge market but how likely is it that LeBron would be willing to go there to play with the remnants they have left? Is money what really motivates a player like LeBron?

No, the more likely path for start talent to move is through a trade. Sure, on its face no team has incentive to trade great talent but if their star is going to move anyway, their more pressing need is to get something consequential in return. Minnesota didn't want to trade KG, but they did. The past is full of similar situations - Shaq [twice] and Kareem to name a few. And, the most pregnant time for such a trade is the year before the star will become a free agent. That is the moment when the star's team has the leverage. At worst, they can play another year with the star all the time hoping for a change of heart. At best, they can command a premium for giving up something of great value that they don't have to deal.

Today, the Trailblazers have extraordinary assets to offer. We can send (1) two or even three players who have already demonstrated promise [you pick from everyone other than Brandon, LA, Rudy and Greg], plus (2) one high quality player [the obvious choice would be LA], plus (3) a fine collection of first and second round draft choices. All of the players would be young, which is an asset to the receiving team since they will necessarily be in the rebuilding mode. In addition, we can absorb a large salary differential because of our cap room. Can any team reasonably offer more? Could any team facing the inevitable loss of its star reasonalby refuse?

So who would be worth such a trade. Clearly only a superstar and a young versatile one at that. Take as an example LeBron. During the last two weeks he has gone on record to make clear that he will look out for his own interests in free agency. By his own intersts, LeBron said he will only go to a team that would offer the possibility of multiple championships.No matter what the headlines, that team will not be NY or Brooklyn. And, based on LeBron's criteria, no team has more to offer LeBron that the Blazers. Say just as an example we sent LA, Martel, Travis and Bayless together with a bunch of other consideration. That would leave LeBron to play with Brandon, Greg, Rudy, Nic, Joel, Steve, Channing and Sergio. Since all but two of those guys are under 24, LeBron would have much to look forward to. Also, he would have an owner who has shown he will not spare any expense if the talent warrants it.

Of course, a few details would be essential to make such a swap happen. Cleveland would have to be pretty certain that LeBron was lost to them. From our side, LeBron would have to commit to resigning as a part of the trade. But those points would be easy to address if a trade were in fact looming. And, such a possiblity seems realistic given LeBron's recenly expressed intentions.

Plainly, the LeBron scenario is no favorite. He is too talented and will be too desired for stiff compettiton not to assert itself. But, we will have to do something, we have much to offer and we have kevin Pritchard. If it's not LeBron that we go after, it will be some other star. The free agent field of 2010 has several other worthy offerings.

Point Guard Needs

Zboy — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 21:56:41 -0000

During the last few years, the Blazers have made many efforts to bring a "true point guard" on board. From Sebastion, to JJ, to Blake, toTaureen, to Kopponen. Now, the Blazers brass seems infatuated with D.J Augustin. Most likely, Nate - a former "pure point guard" is the behind-the-scenes motivating force.Given our present personel, I wonder if these efforts are misdirected.

To see my point, imagine that we somehow acquired the best "true point guard" in the league - Chris Paul. Sure, Paul is a great player, but how would he fit in. Paul needs the ball...No, he dominates the ball. That works fine if the rest of our team consisted of Jim Jones-type, spot up type players, but our team doesn't. Our lead offensive player is Brandon. And Brandon needs the ball to be effective. In my view, in our present roster, bringing on a "pure point guard" would likely create an ineffective situation analogous to what we had with Zach, who dominated the ball to the detriment of our other offensive players.

I believe that a more effective approach would be to seek a combo guard similar to Brandon, say a player like O.J. Mayo [I am not endorsing Mayo personally as opposed to a Mayo-type player since Mayo may have other issues]. Both Brandon and Mayo can handle the ball, both can shoot from outside or drive to the hole. Most importantly, both have great passing skills and high BB IQ's. I expect they would comfortably share the ball and in doing so create insolvable problems for opposing teams that field a "true point guard"

Of course, there are weaknesses to this approach. Neither Brandon nor say Mayo would be comfortable taking the ball up the court alone all the time. But, we could compensate by having them both take the ball up court so as to re leave the defensive pressure. More significant would be the defensive difficulty either would have in trying to stop a quicker "true point guard" from driving to the hoop. Fortunately, we have an effective way to compensate in Greg and LA.

I invite your comments: should the Blazers abandon the search for a "true point guard" in favor of acquiring a strong combo guard ala Brandon?