SB Nation User Blog: Zephon

2009 Draftee Report Card, Part Four Pitchers Allen-Hale

Zephon — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:47:22 -0000

The Diamondbacks entered the 2009 draft with 4 extra draft picks in the first round and the 1/2 sandwich round, and came out of the draft with 37 out of 55 picks signed. Keith Law ranked the D-backs as having the best draft in 2009, and other reviews of the Diamondbacks' draft have been positive as well. With so many quality players signed, this draft certainly has the potential to be best draft the Diamondbacks have had in their short history, and the team had a nice balance of high-upside high school talent and safer college picks at each stage of the draft. In this series of articles, we're going to take a look at each signed draftee's debut season, and see how they performed. If a scouting report on a player is available, we'll also take a look at that.

For this, the fourth part of the piece, we'll begin to look at the arms added to the system, eighteen in all. How to break up these picks was perhaps the biggest dilemma for this week's piece. It's impossible to know which guys will end up as starters and which will end up as relievers, so that distinction was a no-go. Lefty vs. righty would have resulted in two really lopsided articles, with the Snakes picking fourteen righties to just four lefties. So we got creative, and first split the article alphabetically, so that the first article will cover A-Hale, and the second article will cover Harvil-Z. Then, within each article, the prospects are organized from highest to lowest draft position. It's not a perfect organization, but it works well enough, especially when given the alternative options.

The grades we used in this article are relative to the league average statistics and the average age of the players in the league that the player was in. In addition, each player's draft position and personal strengths and weaknesses are taken into account (i.e. how they were supposed to do). It's best to remember that the draft is generally a crap-shoot - you can never know which guys will make it and which won't. Some players' careers may be lost to injuries, others just may never be able to make the adjustments to the more advanced levels of hitting or pitching. If two or three players out of a draft become solid major leaguers, the draft is generally thought a success. It's not that uncommon for a team to have a draft where none of the players drafted have any significant impact on the major league club (just ask Pittsburgh). It happens. It's why the draft is 50 rounds long and teams have 25 players on their big-league rosters. If one major league player out of this draft became an all-star and a handful of them became regular big-league players, the organization got a good haul. So when you see these grades, imagine that they're in a perfect world, where there's no injuries, and players don't regress. These are absolute best-case scenarios. We can't predict the future.

Baseball is one of those rare sports where the ultimate team mentality is directly clashing with one person's determination to dominate a contest on his own. No one offensive player, or even no pair of offensive players, can win game after game single-handedly, as Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton so aptly demonstrated last season. Offense is a team collaboration in baseball, and requires a stringing-together of multiple successful at-bats in order to effectively produce runs. Pitching, on the other hand, is completely opposite of this. Sure, a good defense can help a pitcher out, but the defense cannot affect the pitches being thrown. Even the best offenses can be effectively shut down by a dominant pitcher, and an amazing start can mesmerize a crowd. And, for Arizona, that has been a point well-made by some of the dominant starters to grace the mound for the Snakes.

The first four that will be, and should be, mentioned are the two duos, co-World Series MVP's Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling from the marvellous 2001 season, and two guys on the roster today who, when at their best, are bona fide Cy Young contenders, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. However, what deserves to be noted about these two pairs of aces is how they were attained by the organization. Johnson was signed as a free agent after a late-season trade to the Astros, and Schilling was acquired from Philadelphia for three young but mostly big-league ready players (Travis Lee, Vincente Padilla, and Nelson Figueroa) and Omar Daal. On the other hand, Webb was developed as a prospect after being an absolutely astounding find in the eighth round of the 2000 draft (which leaves us to wonder why we don't now take a pitcher every year in the eighth round out of moral obligation), and Haren was acquired in 2007 along with fringe-average reliever Connor Robertson (later traded for Scott Schoeneweis) from Oakland in exchange for six prospects (Dana Eveland, Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Chris Carter) who are just now starting to seep into the major leagues.

Sifting below the cream, you can also find a number of quality #3/#4 types who have hit the rubber for Arizona, including Brian Anderson, who is third on Arizona's innings-pitched list behind Johnson and Webb, Miguel Batista, fifth on that list after Schilling, Doug Davis at #6, Daal at #7, and Andy Benes at #8. As for relievers, we've had great luck with young, inexpensive back-of-the-pen options Byung-Hyun Kim, Jose Valverde, Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, Mike Koplove, and Juan Cruz. Any way you slice it, pitching has typically been a position of strength for Arizona.

Next season, however, may be a different story. The rotation has one big hole at the #4 slot, one big question in whether or not Brandon Webb will be able to return close to his #1 form as our #2 starter, and one big competition amongst Billy Buckner, Kevin Mulvey, Bryan Augenstein, and Cesar Valdez for the #5 slot. The discussion has been rampant on the 'Pit as to who the team will sign for that #4 slot, with Randy Wolf, Jarrod Washburn, Ben Sheets, Brad Penny, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Pedro Martinez, Jon Garland, Joel Pineiro, Eric Bedard, and even Chris Capuano's scattered ashes all being tossed out (no pun intended... okay, yes it was) as signing possibilities. Perhaps the only certainty about this situation is that we will sign a guy, probably later on in the bidding process when some of the market has diminished and the guys who are left are scrambling to try to find a roster that needs them.

Further, the system has no real impact guys close to major-league ready now that star prospect Jarrod Parker is going to be shelved for all of 2010 recovering from TJ surgery, although the organization does have a fair number of #4/#5 potential arms in the upper ranks. In the upper levels of the system aside from the aforementioned foursome, amongst whom only Augenstein probably has the potential to be anything above a #4 guy (and even that will require some serious work on his secondary offerings), Tony Barnette could be ready to be a #5 guy in 2011, Matt Torra could see a rotation in 2011 or 2012, and while Barry Enright's ERA dropped across the hardest jump in the minors, his metrics need a major rebound year to get him back to being a top prospect as he was a year ago (K:BB fell from over 4:1 to 2.8:1). Tom Layne pitched well in the AFL and can be either a starter or reliever. Wes Roemer proved his dominance over the California League before having a solid season at Mobile. Further down in the system there is some promise, with both Trevor Harden and Pat McAnaney ending the season with decent numbers at Visalia. Bryan Shaw's metrics at Visalia indicate he was the victim of some serious bad luck, and he still had some moderate success as a starter. Wade Miley had a solid season at South Bend, and will start at Visalia next season.

Relief arms are also aplenty, and even after trading away Dan Schlereth, they still have a few lefties stashed away with Leyson Septimo and Jordan Norberto having.... interesting.... years in the minors, and Clay Zavada's big debut season solidifying the left-handed relief contingent to the point where the organization felt comfortable in trading away LOOGY-in-the-making Scott Maine in the Aaron Heilman trade. Roque Mercedes looks like another great piece added from the Felipe Lopez trade, and Bryan Henry had a good year at Visalia. Reid Mahon lost the ground-ball-inducing ability on his sinker, and needs to find it quickly if he's going to rebound and have major-league value. 40-man roster men Daniel Stange and Kyler Newby each have a lot of work to do in not a lot of time if they're going to reach the majors, in both cases involving the finding of lost K-rates. Bryan Woodall had a good season in South Bend, striking out ten per nine innings. Josh Ellis was lights out in Mobile, but while the wheels fell off in Reno, the lack of any metric spikes leads me to believe foul luck was a factor. Finally, Billy Spottiswood had a peculiar (and luck-filled) season, being promoted from Hi-A to AAA to provide rest for Reno's arms, and despite metric spikes and dips all over (K-rate drop, BB-rate spike, HR-rate spike), his WHIP fell, as did his ERA.

Yet, in drafting arms, there really isn't much of a pattern that can be adhered to. Teams look for a few things - projectionability (a tall body with wide shoulders that indicate the potential to add extra bulk and hence extra velocity on a pitcher's fastball - also an indicator of a pitcher's ability to resist injury), smooth pitching mechanics (typically an indicator of a pitcher's ability to resist injury, although I've heard recent studies say mechanics have little indication on a pitcher's risk of injury), and, of course, what a pitcher already has - the stuff he posesses, his command, poise, feel for pitching, and production in high school and/or college. Even more difficult is knowing what role a pitcher will end up in. For an example that has already been covered to a slight extent, a guy who begins his minor-league career as a potential left-handed ace (Scott Maine) can wind up with LOOGY-upside by the time he reaches AAA (hence why we dealt him in the aforementioned Aaron Heilman trade). You just never know, as so much can go wrong with a pitching prospect, even the best of them (see - aforementioned Jarrod Parker).

Really, the only thing a team can do is try to mix a combination of college arms with polish and shorter paths to the majors with higher-upside high school arms who have a bigger risk of injuries due to the need for a longer development time in the minors. However, the D-Backs' philosophy in the early rounds tends to lean towards college arms, with past arms such as Daniel Schlereth (University of Arizona - 1st round, 2008), Wade Miley (Southeastern Louisiana University - 1st round, 2008), Wes Roemer (Cal State Fullerton - 1st round, 2007), Max Scherzer (University of Missouri - 1st round, 2006), Brooks Brown (University of Georgia - 1st round, 2006), and Matt Torra (University of Massachusetts - 1st round, 2005) all being high picks from colleges. Not to say that the team will refuse to select a high school arm early, but typically if they're going to do so, they look for some polish in the player they're drafting, as was the case with Jarrod Parker (Norwell HS in Ossian, Indiana - 1st round, 2007), whose minor-league pitching career began in Mid-A South Bend, and who had made it to AA Mobile before elbow injuries ended his season in '09. This philosophy stems from the team's budget consciousness, as they look for safer bets to spend their money on in the early rounds of the draft so as to not have a complete disaster cost them a multi-million dollar signing bonus without any return. And, indeed, this philosophy remained intact for the '09 class, as the first four arms taken, Mike Belfiore, Eric Smith, Bradin Hagens, and Chase Anderson, were all from the college ranks. So, without further ado:

1/2 Sandwich Round, Pick 45 - Michael Belfiore
Born: October 3, 1988 in Commack, New York School: Boston College Height: 6'3'' Weight: 200 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Left
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 2-2 IP: 58.0 ERA: 2.17 FIP: 2.48 BABIP: .344 WHIP: 1.24 K:BB: 55:13 GO:AO: 1.85:1

Zephon: Michael Belfiore is a hard throwing left handed pitcher who'll hopefully rise through the system quickly, and looking at his excellent debut season, it looks he might just do that. Baseball America ranked Belfiore as our number seven prospect. Looking at his numbers, there's not a single thing that I don't like. He's got an excellent 2.17 ERA to go along with a mighty fine 1.24 WHIP. In addition, he's got an excellent almost 5:1 strike out to walk ratio. An excellent debut season all around. look for him in High A Visalia next season, or possibly AA Mobile by season's end. In my opinion, Belfiore is a top 10 prospect, and one of the top 5 pitching prospects in the Diamondbacks farm system. Grade A (Short term: A Long term: A+)

IHSB: Mike Belfiore cemented his status as one of the top-10, prospects in the D-Backs system with his absolutely ridiculous debut season in Missoula. There's so much to like. The first-half-Haren-esque ERA. The 1.24 WHIP. The K:BB. How often he induces ground ball outs with his heavy fastball despite definitely being a strikeout pitcher. Even the fact that he throwed left-handed, which seems to add an extra couple million dollars on a free-agent pricetag. The only things counting against Belfiore are that we expected a good season from a guy who was the 45th pick, was 20 years old after some time in college ball, and was in rookie-ball with a bunch of high school kids, but by all accounts Belfiore destroyed any expectations the team may have had for him, and was absolutely a man amongst boys. Consider this deeper look into the numbers: the team's plan involved Belfiore starting with a few relief outings before going into the rotation. In three relief appearances, he accumulated a 7.36 ERA. However, knowing his season ERA, you know where this is headed. In his 11 starts following the bullpen disaster, Belfiore absolutely dominated in the role he's more accustomed to, and will be in for his career, posting a 1.82 ERA. Expect him to certainly skip Low-A, and earn himself a promotion to Hi-A by mid-season if he lights up the Midwest League the way he lit up the Pioneer League. Or, perhaps the Jarrod Parker promotion track could be applied to Belfiore (second season begins in Hi-A, quick promotion to AA if performance merits it). As a side note, he also played first base in college and has drawn Micah Owings comparisons because of his ability to win more games than his ERA would merit due to helping himself with his bat, another tool that will keep him in a rotation. Grade: A (Short-term: A-, Long-term: A)

Round 6, Pick 186 - Bradin Hagens
Born: May 12, 1989 in Denair, California School: Merced JC (California) Height: 6'1'' Weight: 175 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-1 IP: 23.2 ERA: 3.42 FIP: 2.99 BABIP: .350 WHIP: 1.48 K:BB: 13:6 GO:AO: 2.56:1

Zephon: Although I can't find a scouting report on Hagens, I do know that the Diamondbacks like his arm and the sink he gets on his fastball. Hagens is a groundball pitcher.The club saw him throw up to 94 mph and will hope he can develop his secondary stuff. 23.2 innings pitched doesn't give you that much of a sample size to work with, but I'll try my hand at grading this guy anyway. 3.42 ERA is below league average, the whip is a little high, and the strike out to walk ratio is decent, not great. He's got a nice GO/AO ratio as well. He does get extra points for being young, however. This is a guy I need to see pitch for a full season. Grade: B (Short term B, Long term B)

IHSB: Well, there are certainly two types of really successful pitchers: the first type is like Belfiore, where stuff leads to strikeouts, which leads to BABIP not resulting in a pitcher's demise. The second type is represented by Hagens - ground ball pitchers who rely on the fact that BABIP on a lazy ground ball to the shortstop is pretty close to zero to get outs. Hagens had a decent GO:AO ratio last season from the sink he gets on his fastball, and despite a pretty scary WHIP, a guy getting that many groundouts isn't going to have that high of a BABIP, leading me to believe that some bad luck bit at Hagens last year and that the scary WHIP will go down a little. His frame is a bit small for a pitcher, but if you're going to try to do it at 6'1'', relying on sink rather than overpowering stuff is probably the way to go unless you want to blow out an elbow (see: Jarrod Parker). He's got a few things working for him going into next season, likely at Yakima. Grade: B- (Short-term: C+ Long-term: B-)

Round 9, Pick 276 - Chase Anderson
Born: November 30, 1987 in Wichita Falls, Texas School: University of Oklahoma Height: 6'1'' Weight: 175 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 3-1 IP: 45.1 ERA: 2.38 FIP: 2.43 BABIP: .299 WHIP: 1.06 K:BB: 48:13 GO:AO: 1.43:1

Zephon: This is what I know about Chase Anderson outside of his stats: He doesn't have the biggest frame at 6'1'' and 175 pounds, but the Diamondbacks like the toughness and athleticism he brings to the table. He gets up to 92-93 mph and has three solid pitches. Personally I'd like to have seen him start off in Low-A Yakima, not rookie ball, as he's a little old for the level. Hopefully the Diamondbacks have him start out in Middle A South Bend next season. Looking at Anderson's actual debut season, he did very well. Anderson dominated the Pioneer League, holding opponents to a 2.38 ERA and an impressive 1.06 WHIP. His K:BB ratio was a very solid (almost) 4:1 and he has a slight groundball tendency. Overall, a very nice debut season, with room for growth. Normally, I'd knock down a grade for the potential for injury risk as in the case for Anderson, but technically that applies to every pitcher. Pitchers are fragile, and that's where the phrase TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect) comes from. Grade: A (Short term A, Long term B+)

IHSB: The small frame and lack of ability to collect ground-balls scares me with Anderson, as reaching back and pulling 93 mph out of a 6'1'' body can't be easy on the arm. However, if the injuries manage to stay away, the numbers on Anderson look good. He doesn't walk a whole lot of guys, and K's over one per inning. He's a guy the organization is going to have to handle well, but is a high-risk, high-reward potential. Grade: B+ (Short-term: A, Long-term: B)

Round 11, Pick 336 - Scott Allen
Born: July 3, 1991 in Lyman, California School: Lyman HS Height: 6'1'' Weight: 165 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-0 IP: 17.2 ERA: 0.51 FIP: 2.58 BABIP: .210 WHIP: 0.91 K:BB: 16:7 GO:AO: 0.89:1

Zephon: One of the two high school arms taken by the Diamondbacks in the draft, Scott Allen dominated in his brief stint with Missoula, holding his opponent to a 0.51 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. I don't think any one can maintain that kind of performance over any length of time, and his 2.58 FIP, suggests that he's clearly due for some regression next year. But he does have a nice 2-1 K:BB ratio, and he's got a 8.15 K/9. I think once we see him pitch in a full seasons worth of games, we can get a more accurate judgement of his potential. He did have nice little run in Missoula. Grade: B+ (Short Term A, Long term: B)

IHSB: The BABIP is definitely going to regress against Allen, but a 0.51 ERA is always something nice and flashy to look at. If these seventeen innings are any indication, Allen is a strikeout guy, as his GO:AO suggests that reliance on his ability to induce ground balls is foolhardy. He'll need to reduce his walk rate, but given that he's an eighteen-year-old high school kid, Allen definitely has time to develop his command of the zone. A flashy and solid, but not great, year, with a bright future if he can cut back on his walks and continue to develop his stuff. One other concern, which drops his grade down a bit, is the 6'1'' frame, as it leads to questions as to just how much projectionability and velocity he can add to his fastball over the course of his development. Grade: B (Short-term: B-, Long-term: B+)

Round 12, Pick 366 - Charles Brewer
Born: April 7, 1988 in Paradise Valley, California School: UCLA Height: 6'4'' Weight: 205 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: 7-2, 54.2IP ERA: 2.47 FIP: 2.96 BABIP: .295 WHIP: 1.06, K:BB: 61:15 GO:AO: 1.62:1

Zephon: Brewer is a big right handed pitcher who can pitch 90-94 MPH. There was some talk that he didn't really "fit in" at UCLA, and they made changes to his arm slot and delivery from his days pitching in high school. Brewer had a very nice debut season, with a dominant 2.47 ERA, and a first half Dan Haren-esque WHIP. His strike out to walk ratio is a very impressive 4:1, and he has a slight groundball tendency. Brewer is a possible sleeper candidate going into next year, especially if he finds the right groove in his arm slot and delivery. Grade: B+ (Short term: A Long Term: B)

IHSB: Zephon covered all of the questions revolving his days at UCLA, so all that's left is to deal with the great season the kid had. He worked as both a starter and reliever, although with much better raw results out of the 'pen (1.59 ERA in 10 appearances) than in the rotation (3.09 ERA in 7 starts). Nonetheless, the kid is big at 6'4'', has a great K:BB rate of 4:1, gets a little bit of help from ground balls, and actually walked batters at a less frequent rate as a starter (just 4 in 32 innings) than as a reliever (11 in 22.2 innings) with just a slight dip in strikeouts per inning (33/32 as a starter, 28/22.2 as a reliever), so my bet is that they'll try to keep sending him out there every fifth day due to the value of a starter being greater than that of a reliever. Great start for a 12th round pick. Grade: A- (Short-term: A-, Long-term: B+)

Round 24, Pick 726 - Brad Gemberling
Born: 12/09/1986 in Swarthmore, PA School: Princeton University Height: 6'1'' Weight: 205 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 0-1 IP: 42.0 ERA: 6.43 FIP: 3.53 BABIP: .416 WHIP: 1.81 K:BB 44:20 GO/AO 1.71

Zephon: Another victim of bad luck and bad defense, Gemberling did not pitch nearly as bad as his 6.43 ERA suggests. Yeah, his BB/9 was a pretty high 4.29, but his K/9 is a pretty darn good at 9.43. His FIP is a full 3 runs lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is an outrageously high .416. I would expect in the long term for the BABIP to drop and his ERA to follow suit. Expect this guy to improve next season. Grade: I can't really give this guy a grade. If I absolutely had to, it would be a C- overall.

IHSB: The strikeouts are sure nice, as is the case anytime you strike out more than one guy per inning, and the GO:AO also helps a little, but the walks have to come down. 2.2:1 isn't a great K:BB ratio for a relief arm, especially one who racks up as many K's as Gemberling did, and while bad luck certainly hurt Gemberling last year, you're asking for bad luck whenever you walk that many guys. But, of course, the BABIP will likely drop by at least 100 points, and the rest of his numbers will adjust accordingly. Next year will be the year where we really get a good feel for Gemberling and what he can really do, both in terms of luck and in terms of what he can do about reducing those walks. Also, given his propensity for K's and short frame, injuries always loom as a question. It's crazy to say this about someone who threw 42 innings this season, but... Grade: Incomplete

Round 27, Pick 816 - Jake Hale
Born: 12/11/1985 in Athens, OH School: Ohio State Height: 6'7'' Weight: 200 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 2-2 IP: 17.0 ERA: 5.29 FIP: 3.09 BABIP: .438 WHIP: 1.47 K:BB 14:6 GO/AO: 1.92
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-1 IP: 9.0 ERA: 6.00 FIP: 4.32 BABIP: .334 WHIP: 1.67 K:BB 10:2 GO/AO: 1.13

Zephon: All though his numbers at first glance look pretty ugly with the 5.29 ERA in Yakima and the 6.00 ERA in Missoula, once you dig deeper, this guy didn't pitch that bad, and was the victim of some extremely bad luck. His FIPs at both levels are a good 2 runs lower at each level. In addition his .428 BABIP in Yakima is just down right unlucky. His K:BB ratio combined at both levels is a pretty decent 3 to 1. Overall, I'd say this guy is a victim of bad luck, and I would expect his numbers to regress to the mean. Grade: Incomplete (not enough innings)

IHSB: Bad luck bites Hale as Zephon noted, especially at Yakima. The K/BBs are good, and everything else checks out. My buggest question is which of the GO/AO ratios are going to be the one Hale follows for his career. Regardless, though, he has a good frame, good metrics, and appears to be a decent relief arm to have stashed away. Grade: Incomplete

Round 28, Pick 846 - Brian Budrow
Born: 11/12/1986 in Glendale, Arizona School: University Of Utah Height: 6'3'' Weight: 215 Position: Pitcher Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 3-3 IP: 34.0 ERA: 2.38 FIP: 2.70 BABIP: .306 WHIP: 1.24 K:BB: 28:12 GO/AO: 1.84

Zephon: This is a guy who put up some pretty impressive numbers for a guy who was drafted with the 846th pick. He's got a great ERA and there's not much of discrepency between it and his FIP. His WHIP is excellent, and his GA/AO is pretty nice. The K/BB is a solid 2.33, and would be even better if he could cut down the walks just a shade. He's right on track for age. Grade: B (Short Term: A- Long Term: B-)

IHSB: Some good numbers from Budrow, but my biggest question is what is he? The K-rate, 7.4 per 9 innings, isn't great for a power bullpen arm, while the GO:AO ratio isn't good enough for a sinkerballer bullpen arm. Also, walks too many guys at 3.2 per 9 innings. However, even with the walks, combining those two other numbers produces good results, as noted by Budrow's good season. It's just a matter of him being able to keep up his hybrid act, and if he can't, what he is going to be. Grade: B (Short-term: A-, Long-term: B-)

Round 31, Pick 936 - Keith Cantwell
Born: 09/09/1987 in Tinton Falls, New Jersey School: Seton Hall University Height: 6'5'' Weight: 215 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-Level Missoula: W-L: 4-0 IP: 35.0 ERA: 4.11 FIP: 1.74 BABIP: .390 WHIP: 1.17 K:BB 44:5

Zephon: Although Keith Cantwell is a late round pick who's a little old for Rookie Level ball, This is a guy who has an 11.31 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, and an almost 9:1 strike out to walk ratio. Oh and his HR/9? It's 0.26. Those are some serious video game numbers, yet somehow this guy has a 4.11 ERA. Once you look up his 1.74 FIP and .390 BABIP, it's clear this guy was the victim of some terrible bad luck. And to top it off, dude was drafted with the 936th pick of the draft. The only real knock is his age, which at 22 is a bit old for rookie ball. I'd expect him to skip a level and start out at Mid-A South Bend next year. I'm not sure about the long term future of this guy, but i think he could end up being one of the biggest steals of the draft. Grade: A- (Short Term A-, Long Term B+)

IHSB: Cantwell's a guy with some really frightening metrics. A K:BB ratio of 8.8:1 is something I've never seen. It's really a shame that BABIP decided to screw him, because the average fan wouldn't recognize how great of a season Cantwell had because his ERA is so mediocre. But this is a guy who really belongs in either South Bend or Visalia to start 2010, a level more appropriate with both his skill level and his age. Also has a great frame at 6'5'', meaning he could easily continue to develop and be a major-league bullpen piece someday. For where he was drafted, it's impossible not to say that this was an absolute heist. Guys taken in the 31st round aren't supposed to have any chance of a future in the majors, and this guy has a pretty legitimate one, which is all you could hope for. Grade: A (Short-term: A, Long-term: A-)

We'll continue our look at the remaining pitchers taken in the draft with pitchers Harvil-Wilson. No real conclusion on the pitchers this week, for that you'll have to wait until next week. Thanks to IHSB, and everyone involved in the making of these articles. In addition, a special thanks goes out to you, the reader for your comments and constructive criticism.

2009 Draftee Report Card, Part Three: Outfielders and Catchers

Zephon — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 23:41:45 -0000

The Diamondbacks entered the 2009 draft with 4 extra draft picks in the first round and the 1/2 sandwich round, and came out of the draft with 37 out of 55 picks signed. Kieth Law ranked the D-backs as having the best draft in 2009, and other reviews of the Diamondbacks' draft have been positive as well. With so many quality players signed, this draft certainly has the potential to be best draft the Diamondbacks have had in their short history, and the team had a nice balance of high-upside high school talent and safer college picks at each stage of the draft. In this series of articles, we're going to take a look at each signed draftee's debut season, and see how they performed. If a scouting report on a player is available, we'll also take a look at that.

For week three of our 5 part prospect extravaganza we're looking at outfielders and catchers. I know someone is going to ask why we chose to stick the outfielders with the catchers, so I guess i should explain. The Dbacks just didn't draft all that many outfielders or catchers, so we chose to put them together to make the articles even in size. Next week we're looking at the first half of the whopping 19 pitchers the organization selected and subsequently signed. Then, when we're all done with the five weeks of '09 additions, both of us will offer our respective 2010 Amateur-opinion Diamondbacks top prospect lists.

It's not that uncommon for a team to have a draft where none of the players drafted have any significant impact on the major league club (just ask Pittsburgh). It happens. It's why the draft is 50 rounds long and teams have 25 players on their big-league rosters. If one major league player out of this draft became an all-star and a handful of them became regular big-league players, the organization got a good haul. So when you see these grades, imagine that they're in a perfect world, where there's no injuries, and players don't regress. These are absolute best-case scenarios. We can't predict the future.

When you discuss outfielders for the Diamondbacks, the great trio the Snakes trotted out in the 2001 World Series season has to be mentioned immediately - Luis Gonzalez in left, Steve Finley in center, and Reggie Sanders, who we let leave the following offseason, in right. Prior to the arrival of the 2009 Turbo-Charged Justin Upton, these three were arguably (with the debate between Sanders and Danny Bautista being a toss-up) the best players the Diamondbacks had ever had at the three respective positions. Runners-up to the Big Three include Shawn Green, Bautista, Jose Guillen, and Devon White.

Ever heard of Chris Jones, Hensley Meulens, and Matt Mieske? We thought not. Well, they're also just a small sampling of the numerous unheard-of outfielders the D-Backs have trotted out in their short history. And for 2010 we have a promising group of young outfielders, with the likely starters being that aforementioned 22-year-old guy named Upton in right, 26-year-old Chris Young in center, and a platoon of 26-year-old Conor Jackson and 22-year-old Gerardo Parra in left. And there's a healthy competition for the fifth outfield spot quietly stirring between Alex Romero, Cole Gillespie, and the one man almost nobody wants to see remain in a Diamondbacks uniform, Eric Byrnes.

So the major-league outfield appears set for quite a while, and it's a good thing that it is, as there really isn't much talent other than Gillespie in the upper-levels of the minors ready to fill in. AAA, if Gillespie is headed to the major-league roster, will contain no outfielders of note, unless Romero, Cyle Hankerd, and Chris Rahl put a banana in your pants. AA will be where some of the higher-upside guys in the system start next season, most noteably Collin Cowgill and Ollie "Lightning" Linton, of completely different skill sets, but equally potent. Cowgill is a good power hitter despite his 5'9'' frame, and can get on base. Linton has almost no home run power, although he used his ridiculous speed to accumulate 28 doubles and a whopping 10 triples last season, reached base at a .394 mark, and stole 28 bases. Further, Linton's speed makes him a plus defender in center, and he plays with the kind of reckless abandon that fans used to love about Byrnes.

They may ready for the majors just in the nick of time, as Cowgill, a more advanced hitter than Linton, could step in to backup/platoon with Parra when Co-Jack is a free agent in 2012, and Linton could be ready to start when CY is a free agent in 2014 (team has option for 2015 season). But the team clearly didn't want to count on Cowgill has their only plan to replace Jackson, especially given the questions surrounding whether or not Jackson will return to his old levels of production, so it decided to use a few of its earlier picks in the draft on college outfielders with advanced bats and tool sets who could rise quickly and provide insurance for the outfield. Then, to add a high-risk, high-reward outfield prospect to the lower ranks of the system, the team picked tool-shed Keon Broxton after solidifying the quick-rising ranks of the system.

Now, to move on to the catchers. While usually a difficult position to solidify for many years, catcher has been a fairly stable position for the Diamondbacks throughout their history. While we haven't had enough luck to find a Jorge Posada or Joe Mauer with a plus bat for the position for a dozen years, and we played too well last season to bank on Bryce Harper in the 2010 draft, we have been able to get six years (and counting, for now) from Chris Snyder, five years from Damian Miller, four years from Kelly Stinnett (although in two stints with the team, from '98-'00 and '05), and one real stop-gap starter in Johnny Estrada. Further, we've even received some good consistency with backups, from Robby Hammock to Rod Barajas to Chad Moeller. And, even though Snyder's clock in Arizona may be winding down, it appears that we have ourselves set at the position for many years once again with Miguel Montero's breakout season and a good cameo from John Hester, who appears to be a fairly capable backup for years to come.

So, even though the system lacks any real high-upside catchers outside of 20-year-old Rossmel Perez, especially with the lackluster seasons just put in by former Sandwich-round pick Ed Easley and Rule 5 draftee James Skelton, the team didn't need to spend a high pick on a backstop. However, it is important to note that minor-league catchers are very important commodities. It is in the minor leagues that catchers begin to actually call games for pitchers, and the way a catcher handles a top prospect pitcher may have a huge impact on that pitcher's development. Therefore, it is crucial to have a solid group of organizational catchers who can call a good game for your pitchers and utilize each pitcher's strengths. So, while the team had the opportunity to address other organizational needs first, it chose to select Tyson Van Winkle in the tenth round, and signed two catchers taken in the eighteenth and forty-fourth rounds, respectively.

Round 1, Pick 17 - A.J. Pollock

Born: December 5, 1987 in Hebron, Connecticut School: University of Notre Dame Height: 6'1'' Weight: 200LBs Position: Center Field Bats: Right Throws: Right

Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 255 AVG/OBP/SLG: .271/.319/.376 XBH: 12 2Bs/3 3B/3 HRs K:BB: 36:16 ISO: .106 BABIP: .306 SB:CS 10:4 Errors: 1

Zephon: Pollock was one of our "safe" picks at 17 overall, a college bat that's should move quickly through the minors. Pollock is considered one of the better pure college hitters in this draft. He's a gap to gap line drive hitter who won't hit a ton of homers, maybe 10 to 15 at most. However, he does make up for that with his speed on the base paths. As he gets more experience he should become an excellent stolen base threat. Since he's recently converted from shortstop to the outfield, he still has a lot to learn defensively , but he should end up being a plus defender. Pollock got off to a slow start, heated up in July, had a poor August, and then had an excellent September to finish the year. Although his on base percentage isn't all that great, he does have a pretty solid 2:1 strike out to walk ratio. Pollock's slugging percentage was really dragged down by the miserable August. Overall, I think Pollock had a pretty solid debut, and I think it'll be interesting to see how he does next year in (most likely) Visalia. Grade: C+ (Short-term: C, Long-term: B)

IHSB: The way to describe the first pro season for the most oddly named man alive (Allen Lorenz Pollock = A.J. Pollock?) is solid but unspectacular, which is disappointing given that the organization expected him to rip through Mid-A South Bend given that Midwest League Competition wasn't foreign to Pollock, given that Notre Dame plays an exhibition game against the SilverHawks at the beginning of each season. He’ll nevertheless rise to Visalia because the organization wants to push him through quickly after a standout career and Notre Dame, and his age requires this for his top-prospect standing. Still a top-ten guy for the organization with his tools (speed, good contact bat, fielding, decent arm, light power) and occasional encouraging flashes of brilliance, but needs to show more consistency (or maybe some BABIP regression - his number for South Bend was .303, which, given his speed, may be low for Pollock), especially since the California League, which he’ll be entering, is a hitter’s paradise (although not quite to the proportions of the PCL). The acquisition of Tony Abreu likely means that the middle infield of the future is jammed up with Abreu, Taylor Harbin, and Pedro Ciriaco, so the once-possible move to second-base, which, in my unprofessional opinion, would have made Pollock's bat more valuable and saved outfield spots for power hitters, Justin Upton, and Chris Young's contract, now becomes nearly a complete a non-possibility unless the team starts to clear a couple prospects for major-leaguers at next year's or 2011's trade deadline. Good news with the stay in the outfield for Pollock is that his defense there is plus, as can be derived from his tool set. It can be thought of this way: you can get a plus bat with solid defense at second, or a solid bat with plus defense in center field. Grade: C+ (Short-term: C, Long-term: B-)

Round 2, Pick 64 - Marc Krauss

Born: October 5, 1987 in Deshler, Ohio School: Ohio U Height: 6'3'' Weight: 235 Position: Left Field Bats: Left Throws: Right

Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 115 AVG/OBP/SLG: .304/.377/.478 XBH: 12 2Bs/1 3B/2 HRs K:BB: 21:14 ISO: .174 BABIP: .359 Errors: 1

Zephon: With Justin Upton manning right field for as long as we can hopefully hold on to him, and Chris Young signed till 2013, left field is going to have a lot of guys competing for the job the next few years until someone completely locks down the position. Unfortunately for Marc Krauss, there's already Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra, and A.J. Pollock ahead of him competing for the job. In addition, that doesn't even factor in a guy like Keon Broxton who's less projectionable, or guys like Borchering who may end up getting moved to the outfield. Getting past that, Marc Krauss put up a very nice season in South Bend, with an above average batting, on base, slugging, and isolated slugging percentages. I'd like to see a few more homers out of him next season honestly, all though I don't mind a high BA doubles hitter (see Conor Jackson). He's got a very solid almost 3:2 K:BB ratio, not too many strikeouts. For the season, Krauss was 21, a touch younger than league average. Hopefully he'll be able to move through the system quickly. Grade B+ (Short term: B Long Term: B+)

IHSB: There were two big concerns about Marc Krauss going into his first professional season. First was how he would handle the transition from aluminum bats and crappy, in-conference pitching to wood bats and good, professional-level pitching. Welp (misspelling intended for dramaticish effect), so much for that little dilemma. Second was where, and how well, could he play defense. Sadly, that one still hasn't been quite figured out. Nonetheless, he raked in his time in Mid-A fresh out of college, so it wouldn't be at all far-fetched if he ends up mashing the hitter-friendly California League and ends up in Mobile by the end of next season. Still, it's in cases like this where being an American League team would be really helpful. Especially since the position it appears he is most likely going to end up playing, left field (since right field is currently and hopefully forever-ly manned by a man named Upton), is home to Conor Jackson and Gerardo Parra (who is only going to be 23 next season to Krauss' 22) in the majors and guys like Cole Gillespie, Collin Cowgill, and South Bend teammate A.J. Pollock in the minors. Could definitely see this being a high-quality bat used as a trade chip in a year or two. Grade: B- (Short-term B, Long-term: C+)

Round 3, Pick 95 - Keon Broxton

Born: May 07, 1990 in Lakeland, Florida School: Santa Fe (Fla.) CC Height: 6'3'' Weight: 187 Position: Center Field Bats: Rights Throws: Right

Rookie-level Missoula: 272abs AVG/OBP/SLG: .246/.302/.474 XBH: 11 2B/9 3B/11 HRs K:BB: 93:19 ISO: .228 BABIP: .333 SB:CS: 6:1 Errors: 4

Zephon: First, I must note that Keon Broxton is NOT related to the Dodgers reliever. Keon Broxton is a player I'm probably a little too high on. I seem to always end up loving players that share my birthday(See Conor Jackson). Broxton is a multi-tooled outfielder who was raw but fast-improving during his junior college season. Physical comparisons have ranged from Rondell White to Matt Kemp. His strike zone judgement is sketchy, but it's obvious from his numbers that he not only has some serious power, but some serious wheels as well. I think this guy is definitely a diamond in the rough. As IHSB notes, he's basically Chris Young. If this guy figures out the strike zone, he could be something special. Take a look at his XBH numbers, especially the ridiculous 9 triples. Then look at his excellent .228 ISO. This is a guy I think you should be keeping an eye on over the next couple years. Grade: B (Short Term: B Long term: B+)

IHSB: Although it's worth noting that Zephon has a moderately unwarranted solid man-crush on Keon Broxton, it's not like Keon Broxton is bad. Quite the contrary - he plays a solid center field, has wheels, hits for power, and strikes out a ton. That's right, ladies and gentlemen, we've found Chris Young again. He's just 19 years old, just finished slugging all over the Pioneer League, and will definitely be in line for a slow path through Yakima next season to work on those on-base skills. It'll take a lot of work, but if this guy figures out that his bat doesn't need to go below his knees or above the letters, he'll do some special things. Grade: B+ (Short-term: B, Long-Term: B+)

Round 10, pick 306 - Tyson Van Winkle

Born: February 2, 1988 In Vancouver, Washington School: Gonzaga Height: 6'1'' Weight: 190 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima: ABs: 156 AVG/OBP/SLG: .244/.367/.308 XBH: 10 2B K:BB: 35:25 ISO: .064 BABIP: .314 SB:CS 4:2

Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 17 AVG/OBP/SLG: .059/.111/.059 XBH: None K:BB: 2:1 ISO: .000 BABIP: .067

Zephon: First I have to say it: Tyson Van Winkle is a funny name. Now to the analysis. At first glance, Tyson had a relatively mediocre season, but he did have two bright spots: His on base percentage in Yakima was 123 points higher than his batting average, and his strike out to walk ratio is a pretty decent 7:5 ratio. I'm not even going to bothering discussing his time in South Bend, other than the fact that it appears he was the victim of extremely bad luck, sporting a BABIP of .067. Winkle is the highest drafted catcher in the Dbacks' 09 draft. With the offensive skillset he's shown, i would think he'd best succeed as a defense first catcher in the mold of Chris Snyder, a guy who can draw walks and maybe hit for a little pop, although the latter he has yet to show. Grade: C (Short term: C- Long term C)

IHSB: 17 at-bats is too few to make any judgment on, so people should only bother to look at the Yakima numbers. From those numbers, we find one thing that Van Winkle needs to really improve upon in order to make himself a solid catching prospect. He needs to find some sort of power that can make him into an OPS "Moneyball" guy (hearkening to Oakland GM Billy Beane's book about deeper statistical analysis of baseball players, although the original definition of a "Moneyball" guy has been stretched to be anybody with a high OPS and low BA), the type of player that casual fans will hate because he'll have low batting averages, but the type of guy that the stat nerds (like me) will like because he gets the job done without making a whole lot of contact. And, of course, he needs to know how to handle a pitching staff. However, the Diamondbacks have historically been good at developing good defensive/game-managing catchers (see Chris Snyder, Rod Barajas). This makes the biggest question the Van Winkle's power, which is crucial to his development. Without power, Van Winkle flops, no questions asked. Grade: C- (Short-term C-, Long-term: C-)

Round 18, Pick 546 - Roidany Aguila

Born:10/22/1990 in Guaynabo, Puerto Rico School: Colegio Nuestra Senora de la Providencia HS Height: 5'10'' Weight: 175 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right

Rookie-level Missoula: 13 ABS AVG/OBP/SLG: .000/.000/000 XBH: 0 ISO: BABIP: .000 K:BB 6:0

Low-A Yakima: 42 ABs AVG/OBP/SLG: .119/.156/.143 XBH: 1 double ISO: .034 BABIP .172 K:BB 13:1

Zephon: I won't bother with a grade for this one. Roidany Aguila did absolutely nothing in his 57 ABS. Even if he raked in those at bats, it wouldn't mean much, since it's such a small sample size. It does he appear that he was a victim of bad luck with a BABIP of 000 in Missoula, and BABIP of .172 in Yakima. The big positive for Aguila his age. He was 18 during the whole season, and only turned 19 after the season ended. Latin American prospects tend to be quite raw, and seem to take a while to develop, but Aquila does have youth on his side. Grade: Incomplete

IHSB: Nothing else to say here that Zephon didn't already. 57 ABs is too few, but the kid has time. Young catching prospects are always intruiging, but, especially coming from Latin America and having a position that requires a good relationship with the pitching staff, lots of development is a must. Grade: Incomplete

Round 26, Pick 786 - Daniel Kaczrowski

Born: 06/17/1987 in St. Anthony, MN School: Hamline U Height: 5'9'' Weight: 170 Position: Left Field Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima: 274ABS AVG/OBP/SLG: .266/.345/.343 XBH: 16 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homerun ISO: .077 K:BB 42:28 BABIP: .312 SB:CS 12:3

Zephon: Another one of the 'owskis selected by the Dbacks this year, and another one I'm rooting for purely based on his last name. In college Kaczrowski was a shortstop, but after signing with the Dbacks, Kaczrowski was moved to the outfield. I'm not sure if the move was permanent, or just to get him playing time, but it does reduce the value of his offense. Looking at his offensive statistics, there really isn't that much to say. The batting average isn't bad, but it's not that good. His on base percentage is pretty decent considering the low batting average, and his strike out to walk ratio is a respectable 4:3. In addition, all though his power numbers aren't that great, Kazcrowski makes up for it a bit with his excellent 80 percent success rate on the base paths. If Kaczrowski doesn't develop more power, he's going to have to succceed at the major league level by basically being the good version of Juan Pierre: a guy who hits for contact, draws a lot of walks, and swipe lots of bags. If he could get moved back to the infield, he'd be worth a lot more, but who know if that's even an option. Grade: C (Short term: C Long term: C-)

IHSB: Doesn't have the bat to make in the outfield, so even though it's where he played this year, he'll likely be found in the middle infielders section when it comes time to check back in on these guys. I can only speculate that the 5'9'' Kaczrowski was put in the outfield because, of the plethora of middle infielders that the Osprey had available to it, Kaczrowski was the one that the team has the least invested in, as he's a 26th round pick. However, given

his draft spot, putting up an OPS just shy of .700 while probably uncomfortable playing out of position is pretty solid. Another guy whose career goal is to be Augie Ojeda, the fact that the team is juggling him around the diamond already is absolutely detrimental to the part of his game he needs to focus on the most, his defense. It's a bit of shame when a team's handling of a player has a negative impact on the player's development, but in this case, given the sheer quantity of middle infielders covered last week, it's understandable that Kaczrowski was juggled. Grade: B- (Short-term: B, Long-term: C)

Round 44, Pick 1326 - Zach Varnell

Born: 06/25/1986 Pine Bluff, AR School:: U Arkansas Pine Bluff Height: 6'1'' Weight: 200 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima: 37abs AVG/OBP/SLG: .108/.267/.135 XBH: 1 double K:BB: 20:8

Zephon: The very last pick to sign with the Diamondbacks was Zach Varnell, a catcher out of Arkansas. There's really not all that much to say about the guy, as he had a pretty poor debut season. I think the only thing worth mentioning is the fact that his on base percentage is 159 points higher than his batting average, and he does have a pretty decent 2 to 1 strike out to walk ratio. Other than that, there's not a whole lot of a positives for this guy. He'll more than likely end up being minor league organizational filler, all though then again, there's been some other catchers that teams have signed in the last round that have turned out pretty well... Grade: Incomplete. And Pointless.

IHSB: There's a reason that Varnell was picked later than any other kid we signed - he's an organizational guy. Catchers are always valuable commodities, as mentioned in the introduction, and that's what Varnell is here for. The bat is pretty much irrelevant, as we can't have any real expectations of him ever reaching the major leagues. All we can honestly hope for is for Varnell to handle the pitching staff of Yakima, South Bend, or wherever the heck the team decides to put him (it really doesn't matter) well. And since I have no information on how Varnell handles a pitching staff, there is no grade that I feel I can assign here. Grade: Incomplete (and Irrelevant)

The Diamondbacks seem to be pretty set in the outfield with Justin Upton, Chris Young, Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra, and Cole Gillespie. However, there's still some concern about Chris Young's offense, and Conor Jackson will be a free agent in 2012. Although the outfield is not the most pressing of needs for the Diamondbacks at the major league level, in the minors there's a lack of impact talent, so they took two promising (and hopefully fast moving) college bats in A.J. Pollock and Marc Krauss. In addition they added a high ceiling, toolsy and young raw prospect in Keon Broxton. Daniel Kaczrowski was drafted as a shortstop and will most likely end up being moved back to the middle infield next year.

Moving onto the catching position, the Diamondbacks seem to be pretty set with Miguel Montero, Chris Snyder (who will most likely be moved during this offseason), and John Hester at the major league level. While the team had the opportunity to address other organizational needs first, it chose to select Tyson Van Winkle in the tenth round, and signed two catchers taken in the eighteenth and forty-fourth rounds, respectively. Tyson Van Winkle has a chance to be a high OPS catcher in the vein of Chris Snyder; 18th rounder Roidany Aguila is a young Latin American talent that is a total wild card, and Zach Varnell fills the need for an organizational catcher.

Next week we'll begin looking at the whopping 19 pitchers taken in the draft, starting with pitchers A through Hale. Before we close, I, Zephon, would just like to once again make note of the resources we used to create this series of articles: Milb.com, Fangraphs.com, and Baseball-Reference.com; plus a special thanks to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and emilylovesthedbacks for doing the final edits to the article. I'd also like to thank IHateSouthBend for collaborating with me on these articles. With out him, this series of articles wouldn't be possible, and wouldn't be nearly as good... So thanks dude. And to the everyone else on Snakepit, I'd just like to thank you all for the positive feedback you've given us so far. Thanks for reading, and stay tuned next week for part three!

2009 Draftee Report Card, Part Two: Middle Infielders

Zephon — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:10:40 -0000

The Diamondbacks entered the 2009 draft with 4 extra draft picks in the first round and the 1/2 sandwich round, and came out of the draft with 37 out of 55 picks signed. Keith Law ranked the Dbacks as having the best draft in 2009, and other reviews of the Diamondbacks' draft have been positive as well. With so many quality players signed, this draft certainly has the potential to be the most productive draft the Diamondbacks have had in their short history, and the team had a nice balance of high-upside high school talent and safer college picks at each stage of the draft. In this series of articles, we're going to take a look at each signed draftee's debut season, and see how they performed. If a scouting report on a player is available, we'll also take a look at that. There will be five parts of the '09 draftee piece, grouping the players by position each week, with a sixth week to take a quick overview of the system. This week we're looking at the middle infielders. Next we're going to lump the outfielders and catchers together (due to the relatively small number of players picked at each spot). Finally, we'll spend two more weeks looking at the whopping 19 pitchers the organization selected and subsequently signed. Then, when we're all done with the five weeks of '09 additions, both of us will offer our respective 2010 amateur opinion Diamondbacks top prospect lists.

Going into next season, the middle-infield at the major-league level is a concern for the D-Backs. At shortstop, after an outstanding 2008 campaign, Stephen Drew's lackluster 2009 season leaves the organization wondering what they're going to get out of the former top pick, and, in our opinion, one of the top-2 shortstops in the organization's history (along with Tony Womack), in 2010. Granted, with Royce Clayton and Damian Easley having manned the position, that's not an especially distinguished honor. Regardless of the question of what we're going to get from Drew, though, he appears set in stone as the starting shortstop, as there are no other major-league-ready starter-quality options for the position for this season. Perhaps we could deal him during or after next season if we feel his arbitration price will rise significantly in his second year (his first arbitration year, this year, should be relatively inexpensive after a mediocre season) of arbitration and top prospect Pedro Ciriaco proves himself to be ready for the majors after an assignment to Reno to start 2010. Elsewhere in the system, the organization has Reynaldo Navarro about to repeat Mid-A at age 20 unless he has an exceptional winter in Puerto Rico, and Mark Hallberg having a stock drop after a poor season at Mobile and a position change to second base. So, since the organization has the position fairly solidified for the near future, they were able to go high-upside on a few guys, including a potential all-star at the position in Chris Owings, early on in the draft before adding some college depth later on. This gives them the flexibility to have some of the quality bats moved off of short to second base in the event that they cannot adjust to the defensive requirements of the position.

Despite typically being a position of strength for Arizona, with players like Jay Bell, Orlando Hudson, Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell, and even a solid stint from Roberto Alomar (before being traded and consequently self-destructing) having manned second base for the Snakes in years past, the second-baseman situation for 2010 in the majors is a bit more complicated than the shortstop situation. For the starting job, the team has incumbent starter Ryan Roberts, waiver-trade acquisition Tony Abreu, September call-up sensation Rusty Ryal, and fan-fave Augie Ojeda all in an competition, although all indications are that the 24-year-old Abreu will be given every chance to win the job. This means that, in all likelihood, one of the other three will probably not be on the team by Opening Day. Roberts' great offensive numbers from last season put him in a favorable position, although simply as a RHP-platoon guy and pinch hitter, and Ryal has spent his offseason playing in the outfield to try to give himself value as a utility player. Ojeda, however, only is getting older and had a poor season last season offensively, so despite his good defense it's hard to imagine him being on the roster next season. Perhaps the most frustrating part of all of this, however, is the fact that we have given away a plethora of good options for second-base in recent years. The Rule 5 Draft will forever be synonymous with the Diamondbacks' handing over of Dan Uggla to the Marlins, and in recent years we have traded Scott Hairston, Alberto Callaspo, and Emilio Bonifacio, although Bonifacio has yet to live up to his prospect hype, and Callaspo was traded for good reason (assault on his wife, plus a potentially good return in Billy Buckner). Also, options in the minors were fairly grim, as Taylor Harbin was the only legitimate prospect at the position going into this season, and put together a mediocre season at Visalia in which he really struggled to get on base. So, the team drafted a plethora of middle infielders, making the safe assumption that many of them will have to move off of shortstop and to second base by the time they get close to the major leagues.

1/2 Sandwich Round, Pick 41 - Chris Owings

Born: August 12, 1991 in Leesville, South Carolina School: Gilbert HS Height: 5'11" Weight: 170 Position: Shortstop Bats: Right Throws: Right

Rookie-level Missoula: ABs: 108 BA/OBP/SLG: .306/.324/.426 XBH: 5 2Bs/1 3B/2 HRs ISO: .120 K:BB 25:3 SB:CS 3:0 BABIP: .383 Errors: 10

Zephon: Chris Owings, going into the draft, was a high school shortstop with good, not great, tools, and solid defensive skills. According to Nick Piecoro, Conor Jackson said that Chris Owings was his favorite player in the instructional league. There were some questions about whether or not he'd need to move to second eventually, along with his signing bonus demands, so he fell to the supplemental round. The Diamondbacks ended up giving him a $950,000 bonus, significantly above the $820,000 bonus slotted for the 41st pick. He doesn't have a lot of power, but he uses the whole field. He should hit for average with line drive gap to gap power, and has already shown that in his short debut season. He has above average speed, but stealing bases really isn't part of his game. Overall, I think Owings should end up being a steal at pick 41, since he's easily first round talent. Like Bobby Borchering, Owings signed at the last minute, so there's limited at bats to look at, and 108 abs really isn't enough to make any long term predictions with. Once again though, I'll try to make an objective analysis anyway, but don't put a lot of stock in this year's stats. When I do look at his stats, I see good Avg/Obp/Slg, and a solid strike out to walk ratio. His stike out to walk ratio is a big positive, and it's always nice to see a player with more walks than strike outs, since you rarely see that in first year players straight out of high school. (One typo completely changes the review, the lack of walks compared to the amount of strike outs are a real negative, and bump down the grade down a level) Another positive is the 120 ISO, which shows some significant power potential for a middle infielder. The only real negative in his debut are the 10 errors, especially once you consider the limited playing time. If Owings makes it to the major leagues as a shortstop, it's going to have to be after Drew leaves free agency. If he rises through the minors quickly, the only place on the team is going to have to be at second base. Above average numbers, a good ISO percentage, but the errors and lack of walks are really the only negative, which knocks down the A grade to a B. I think Owings can end up being a real stud, especially if he sticks at short. Grade: B (Short Term: B-, Long term: A-).

IHSB: Zephon already mentioned that Owings has looked great in the Fall Instructional League, and he had a pretty darned good first stint in the minors at Missoula this year, displaying some pretty legit power, although he'll need to learn to draw walks. However, in going over the draft with Zephon while writing this piece, Owings is near the epicenter of a pretty interesting middle-infield jam, which, while convoluted at first sight, starts to clear up as you delve deeper into it. While this season's middle infield consists of Stephen Drew at shortstop and the jam of Tony Abreu, Ryan Roberts, and Rusty Ryal (with a possible Augie Ojeda pulse sighting) at second-base, a dilemma comes up when you realize that the team has Abreu locked up as a piece for the future at age 24, and Pedro Ciriaco lighting up the Arizona Fall League and set to start next season in Reno, waiting for his shot at the majors. So this means you have a veteran at shortstop in Drew, his long-term heir apparent in Ciriaco, and recent acquisition Abreu set to block not just Owings, but also David Nick, Taylor Harbin, Reynaldo Navarro, and Mark Hallberg. It simply appears that the organization suddenly has too many highly-ranked players playing in the middle infield (and without a surplus of lower-level premier starting pitchers, which is the one surplus you want). But here's the way I see it - in, say, a year or two, Roberts, Ryal, and Ojeda will all be gone. Abreu's arbitration years are 2011-2013, and he becomes a free agent in 2014. Drew's arbitration years are 2010-2012, and he is a free agent in 2013. So, the rumors that Drew is being shopped around this year are not so far-fetched. If we hope to contend, it would be best to retain him, but Ciriaco's excellent defense would be a great fit for an everyday shortstop job in 2011, and given his production and high level, he has a fairly high probability of reaching the majors, thus allowing us to acquire good arm prospects for Drew's last two higher-cost arbitration years. Then, by the time 2014 rolls around, the organization can hope that one of the Owings/Nick/Harbin/Navarro/Hallberg group is ready to step in and play second base (where many of them, including Owings, is better-suited). While having five guys for one future might seem a bit excessive, it's always hard to remember that prospects really are prospects for a reason - they rarely pan out into everyday-quality players. Injuries, lack of talent, and even non-baseball-related factors all step in to possibly ruin these kids' careers. Further, if more than one kid works out, that simply allows us to have extra pieces to send off in exchange for a deadline piece. Bottom line: Having too many good players at any position is better than having too many decent players at every position, and Chris Owings is a very good player. Grade: B+ (Short-term: A-, Long-term: B+)

Round 4, Pick 126 - David Nick

Born: February 03, 1990 in Cypress, California School: Cypress HS Height: 6'2'' Weight: 175 Position: Second Base Bats: Right Throws: Right

Rookie-level Missoula: 273abs BA/OBP/SLG: .286/.351/.440 XBH: 18 2Bs/3 3Bs/6 HRs ISO: .154 K:BB 49:22 SB:CS 16:8 BABIP: .329 Errors: 8

Zephon: I don't have any scouting reports for David Nick, so any kind of judgement I make is based on his physical make up or statistics. Nick's debut season is pretty damned good, especially for a fourth round pick straight out of high school, and instantly puts him on the map in terms of top prospects. An OPS of 791 in your debut season is pretty darn good, and the average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, while not setting the world on fire, are all above average when compared to the rest of the Pioneer league. In addition, at 19, he's pretty young. He's got excellent XBH numbers, and his ISO is above average when compared to the league, and better than Owings. He's got decent stolen base numbers, but he will need to work on his jumps and selectivity. For stolen bases to be a net positive, you need to be successful 75 percent of the time, while Nick was successful 67 percent of the time. He's also got a solid 2:1 K:BB ratio. I'm actually not to worried about the errors, considering he made the least amount of errors and had the most at bats of any of the players we've looked at today. Overall, David Nick had an above average debut season, and the bat is real, but there's always the question of where he'll end up playing. His best bet at getting playing time in the majors is probably second base, but he will have a fight with Tony Abreu, Ryan Roberts, Rusty Ryal, and possibly Chris Owings already in the fold. Hopefully he'll stick at second, because the bat really plays well there, and at 19, he's got plenty of time to improve and grow. Grade: A- (Short term: A- Long term: B+)

IHSB: David Nick's solid debut season - especially good for a fourth-round pick - put him on the map as a prospect to watch, as his above-average offensive output across the board and young age out of high school make him an attractive option for the future at second base if he can pan out. But, of course, a lot of that depends on Nick continuing to progress. An above-average season at Rookie-ball does not make for a guaranteed path to the majors in any way, and Nick clearly has things he needs to work on. The bat, while nice, needs to continue to keep up with the levels, and there is always the question of adjusting to more advanced pitching and the off-speed pitches of higher levels. Also, it's clear that Nick needs some work with his glove, as his bat, while perfectly sufficient for second base, likely will not carry him at any other position he would have to go to, whether the outfield, or, worst-case scenario, first base, if forced to move off of second. A good season, and one that give promise for Nick's future, but the progression needs to continue or Nick could spend a good number of years stuck in the minors. Grade: B+ (Short-term: A-, Long-term: B)

Round 14, Pick 426 - Brent Greer

Born: October 16, 1987 in Manassas, Virginia School: Western Carolina U Height: 6'0'' Weight: 185 Position: Shortstop Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima - ABs: 273 BA/OBP/SLG: .300/.357/.436 XBH: 12 2Bs/2 3Bs/7 HRs ISO: .136 K:BB: 66:14 SB:CS 5:4 BABIP: .375 Errors: 17

Zephon: This guy's season was a mixed bag. Great batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage. Decent XBH stats. Unfortunately, that's juxtaposed with a bad strike out to walk ratio and too many caught stealing for the stolen bases to matter. Oh, and way, way too many errors. He's also got a really high BABIP though, and I think he's due for some regression next season. However, I don't think it'll be that high of a regression, but his numbers will more than likely be down next season. I think his baserunning will improve as he gets more expeirence, and I think his defense can be improved to acceptable levels. His strike zone judgement, on the other hand, is going to need a lot work, and may be the hardest area for him to improve. Grade: B- (Short Term: C+ Long term: B)

IHSB: Not a guy who's likely going to stay at shortstop, a position where defense is the key and offense can come later. However, if he wants to have much major-league impact, he'd better hope that he can. Second-base is filled with a mess of guys who will also probably be moved off of shortstop, and third-base is filled with a mess of Mark Reynolds and Bobby Borchering. But the bat is impressive, strikeouts exempted, and if it keeps up with the advancement of levels, it could allow him to move around, which is some nice flexibility for a 14th round pick. Grade: B- (Short-term: B+, Long-term: C)

Round 15, Pick 456 - David Narodowski

Born: 08/03/1988 in Vancouver, British Columbia School: Kansas Height: 5'10'' Weight: 195 Position: Shortstop Bats: Right Throws: Right

Rookie-level Missoula - ABs: 206 BA/OBP/SLG: .233/.396/.369 XBH: 5 2B/1 3B/7 HRs ISO: .136 K:BB 47:53 SB:CS 7:5 BABIP: .266 Errors: 20

Zephon: I think the only two reasons why I really want this guy, and the two other "owski" guys we drafted to succeed, is one, that I'm Polish, and the two families on my mother's side are the Lesnikowskis and the Wichowskis. So I definately have to give some love to my brethren. Also, if all three of the -owskis made it to the major leagues, it'd give Mark Grace and Darron Sutton quite a mouthful to handle. The other reason is that he's a Canuck, which is awesome. But anyway, getting at some sort of analysis here, this is an interesting guy. The batting average is obviously low, but then again he's got an on base percentage 163 points higher than his BA. His OBP is a definite reflection of his plate discipline - as he drew more walks (53) than strike outs(47). His slugging percentage isn't all that high, probably due to the fact that he didn't have all that many doubles, but he does have some power potential, as his .136 ISO shows. I think the batting line is a bit deceiving, as his 765 OPS is in fact slightly above the league average of .754, although lower than the team average of .779. Now, I think we can safely say that David Narodowski will not be sticking at shortstop, especially when he's made 20 errors, the most of any of the 09 draftees. I wish there was some way to find out what kind of errors he made, wither it was his footwork or his throws. The real problem with Narodowski is that if he doesn't stick in the middle infield, he pretty much loses all value. The only other position where he'd still be valuable would be Center Field. But the point of all this is, Narodowski isn't all that bad, and he does have some positives going into next season. Grade: C+ (Short term C+. Long term C+)

IHSB: Narodowski's numbers remind me a bit of what Ryan Roberts put up for the big-league club this year, except with a much bigger disparity between the BA and OBP than RailRoad had. But an OPS of .765 is a good start from a 15th-round pick. However, the concerns do pile on the more you look at the kid. 20 errors is a lot, especially from a guy who wasn't playing everyday due to the presence of guys like David Nick and Chris Owings on the Missoula roster (he had 17 errors in 53 games at shortstop). And since Narodowski is a guy with a fairly small build, it's not too hard to imagine that he's a guy who is going to have to thrive off of defense (see: Augie Ojeda, RailRoad) to make his contact bat valuable at multiple infield positions. The huge number of walks is remarkable for a player his age, but the 47 strikeouts nonetheless are too many for his number of at-bats (given his build and power projectionability). Narodowski needs to turn himself into a contact-hitting, high-walk, good-defense middle infielder if he's going to have any major-league value. But he has a chance to do that, and that's good value for where he was taken. Grade: B (Short-term: B+ Long-term: C+)

Round 22, Pick 666 (!!!) - Evan Button

Born: September 05, 1986 in St. Louis, Missouri School: Ole Mississippi Height: 6'0'' Weight: 195 Position: Second Base Bats: Left Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima - ABs: 14 BA/OBP/SLG: .143/.200/.143 XBH: None ISO: .000 K:BB: 3:0 (1 HBP) SB:CS: 0:0 BABIP: .182 Errors: 0

Zephon: Not much to say, except for OMG DEVIL PICK! If this guy makes it, he just has to go by the name Evan "The Anti-Christ" Button. All jokes aside, Satan's Pick will probably end up repeating the level, since he didn't exactly light up the world with his 14 at bats. Grade: Incomplete.

IHSB: First, I feel obligated to note Button's status as Satan's pick. Because it's kind of awesome. Now that that's out of the way, he could hypothetically be pushed to Mid-A next season strictly because he is 23 years old and needs to progress to have any hope for salvageable value, despite the fact that he didn't do anything of note in the limited time he had in Yakima last season. Or, since he is a 22nd-round pick, he could simply be an organizational guy (someone who fills in a spot in the system where there is an open roster spot for a backup position to provide depth). Grade: Incomplete.

Looking at the middle infielders taken in the draft is like looking at a microcosm of the Diamondbacks draft strategy. It's clear that the organization noticed that it had a need for high-ceiling middle infield talent, and hence went the high-upside high school route in taking Chris Owings and David Nick. Then, later on, it took fliers on a few college guys with a little bit of polish in Brent Greer, David Narodowski (who has some Polish to go with his polish), and Evan Button, with the downside for them being A-AA organizational guys. In my opinion, this strategy is the reason the Diamondbacks had such a great draft, and hopefully, it's a strategy that will pay off in the long run. In addition, with this draft the Diamondbacks have added to their depth at shortstop and second base, and we now have a lot more flexibility when it comes to trading a player like Drew, and we have a back up plan in case the Abreu/Ryal/Roberts experiment doesn't work. Having looked at both the corner infield and middle infield, you can see that with the talent taken in this draft the Diamondbacks have not only added depth, but may have solidified the future of their infield as well.

Next week we'll look at the outfielders and catchers taken in the draft - A.J. Pollock, Marc Krauss, Keon Broxton, Tyson Van Winkle, Daniel Kaczrowski, Roidany Aguila, and pick number 1326 himself, Zach Varnell.

Before we close, I, Zephon, would just like to once again make note of the resources we used to create this series of articles: Milb.com, Fangraphs.com, and Baseball-Reference.com; plus a special thanks to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and emilylovesthedbacks for doing the final edits to the article. I'd also like to thank IHateSouthBend for collaborating with me on these articles. With out him, this series of articles wouldn't be possible, and wouldn't be nearly as good... So thanks dude. And to the everyone else on Snakepit, I'd just like to thank you all for the positive feedback you've given us so far. Thanks for reading, and stay tuned next week for part three!

DBacks acquire Aaron Heilman

Zephon — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:41:37 -0000

According to MLBtraderumors and SI.com, the Diamondbacks have acquired Aaron Heilman.

Thanks to emilylovesthedbacks for spotting this on twitter, more info to come.

[Updated] The deal sees the Cubs getting a pair of prospects, in left-handed reliever Scott Maine and infielder Ryne White. Said Josh Byrnes, "Aaron has been a successful, durable reliever who will add experience and stability to our bullpen." The right-hander is 31, and had a 4.11 ERA in 72.1 innings for the Cubs in 2009.

(Update) Credit also goes to Counsellmember, who also mentioned this in the Lincecum Cy Young post.

Maine, 24, was the D-backs sixth-round selection in the 2007 First-Year Player Draft. In 2009, he went a combined 4-5 with 7 saves and a 2.90 ERA (20 ER in 62.0 IP) in 48 relief appearances at Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno. Over parts of three seasons in the D-backs farm system, he went 8-7 with 13 saves and a 3.29 ERA (44 ER in 120.1 IP) in 88 relief outings. White, 23, was the D-backs fourth-round selection in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft. In 2009, he hit .266 (111-for-418) with 18 doubles, 1 triple, 6 home runs and 52 RBI in 116 games for Single-A Visalia. Over parts of two season in Arizona’s minor league system, he hit .275 (194-for-705) with 37 doubles, 2 triples, 13 home runs and 103 RBI in 186 games.

Interestingly, the official press release is careful to mention Heilman's stats as a starter, even though he hasn't been one for the past four seasons. His agent told the New York Daily News in November last year: "The object the entire time has never been to get out of New York. The object is to get out of the bullpen. The most success he's ever had as a pitcher has been as a starting pitcher. He was drafted by the Mets as a starting pitcher." That didn't happen after his trade to Chicago, and one wonders if it's something the team might try here? He earned $1.625m in 2009, so would be a cheap enough member of the rotation if so. Of course, the question of whether he can be a starter is a huge one.

But even if not, he should be an innings-eater in the bullpen. Among "pure" relievers, no-one has pitched more innings over the past four seasonss than Heilman. Interestingly, second on the list is another name we might recognize, Jon Rauch, who was born less than two months before Heilman in 1979. One thing I note is that Heilman's ERA+ over that time (109) doesn't quite seem to mesh with his opponent's OPS: he has held hitters to a decent line of .241/.322/.378. If you look at the other relievers in the chart linked above, that kind of OPS tends to result in better ERA numbers.

xFIP has Heilman at 4.15 last year, which is pretty close to his actual ERA. His groundball numbers are a little worrying, being below MLB average for the past two seasons, and heading the wrong way too, though this is mitigated by decent infield-fly rates. His K:BB ratio have not been brilliant either, at about 1.8, which is mediocre in the true sense [league average last year for relievers was 1.87]. Overall, I feel somewhat "meh" about the deal: I tend to feel it gives the bullpen more depth, without really improving the quality enormously. However, about a quarter of his appearances involved him going more than one inning, and about 30% were on zero days rest, so he may help relieve our relievers, at it were.

What kind of Minor League related articles would you like to see on the snakepit?

Zephon — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:28:47 -0000

Along with the 5 part draftee report card, me and IHSB are already working on a two-three part top 25 prospect list. My question for the posters on the Snakepit is, what other kind of minor league focused articles would you like to see on the Snakepit? Should I do more spotlight articles like i used to write, that focus on one player? Prospect smackdowns between two prospects, that ask the question of who is the better prospect? Minor league affiliate Reviews/Previews? Draft report cards for other years? I'm just trying to get some ideas for some articles down the line, now that I'm actually writing with some frequency now. I'm asking now because I like plenty of time in advance to work on my articles. Any suggestions and ideas are welcome.

Poll

What kind of articles would you like to see Zephon work on after he's done with the Draftee Report Card and Top Prospect list?

Prospect Spotlights?

3 votes

Prospect Smackdowns?

7 votes

Draft Report Cards for other years?

2 votes

Minor League Season Previews/Reviews?

2 votes

Other? (Make suggestions in Comments)

0 votes

14 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 Draftee Report Card - Part One, Corner Infielders

Zephon — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 02:32:58 -0000

The Diamondbacks entered the 2009 draft with 4 extra draft picks in the first round and the 1/2 sandwich round, and came out of the draft with 37 out of 55 picks signed. Keith Law ranked the Dbacks as having the best draft in 2009, and other reviews of the Diamondbacks' draft have been positive as well. With so many quality players signed, this draft certainly has the potential to be the most productive draft the Diamondbacks have had in their short history, and the team had a nice balance of high-upside high school talent and safer college picks at each stage of the draft. In this series of articles, we're going to take a look at each signed draftee's debut season, and see how they performed. If a scouting report on a player is available, we'll also take a look at that. There will be five parts of the '09 draftee piece, grouping the players by position each week, with a sixth week to take a quick overview of the system. This week we'll start off with the power bats of the corner infielders. Next week we'll feature the middle infielders, then lump the outfielders and catchers together in week three (due to the relatively small number of players picked at each spot). Finally, we'll spend two more weeks looking at the whopping 19 pitchers the organization selected and subsequently signed. Then, when we're all done with the five weeks of '09 additions, both of us will offer our respective 2010 amateur opinion Diamondbacks top prospect lists.

Round 1, Pick 16 - Bobby Borchering

Born: October 25, 1990 in Alva, Florida School: Bishop Verot HS Height: 6'4'' Weight: 200 Position: Third Base Bats: Switch Throws: Right

Rookie-level Missoula - ABs: 87 BA/OBP/SLG: .241/.290/.425 XBH: 8 2Bs/1 3B/2 HRs ISO: .184 K:BB: 27:5 SB:CS: 0:0 BABIP: .328 Errors: 5

Zephon: Borchering is a switch hitting third basemen that is often compared to Chipper Jones. Borchering's bat is going to have to carry him through the minors, and if he's going to stick at third, he's going to have to put in a lot of work on his defense. It's possible that he may end up moving to the outfield or first base. Borchering signed late, so we don't have a lot of at-bats to look at, but we can still try to make some kind of objective analysis. 87 at-bats is a pretty small sample size, so we can't put a lot of stock in this year's stats. While not the most impressive debut for a first round pick, you have to remember that Borchering was 18 during most of the season and just turned 19. Another thing to take into consideration is that most draftees have to deal with adjusting from aluminum bats to wooden bats for the first time. This can greatly affect performance during their transition. If you compare Borchering's age against the average age of the Pioneer league (20 years old), you can give him a little more slack. We'll have to see how he does with a full season's worth of at bats. Borchering will most likely get assigned to South Bend and get the first stab at third, but it'll be interesting to see how the playing time breaks down. I've also heard rumors that he may get a look in left field next season. Grade: C- (short term: C-, Long term: B)

IHSB: The regular season numbers are worrisome, as a .290 OBP isn’t going to cut it from anybody who wants to be a top prospect and is playing in rookie-ball, regardless of your tools or age. But the ISO of .184 that he’s got the power that drew scouts to love him and he really turned it on in the postseason, putting up some great numbers (.321 average, 2 HR, 10 RBI in 6 games) that offer some much-needed optimism. With those playoff numbers, it’s hard to imagine Borchering starting next year anywhere but Mid-A South Bend (as one would hope that a prospect of Borchering's status would rise faster than his fellow Rookie-level teammates going to Low-A Yakima). As expected from the position he was drafted, he’s a guy who is instantly a top-ten prospect, but unfortunately it’s not as if he instantly proved he was a man amongst boys as the organization had hoped for given the competition. The low number of ABs doesn't make it devastating to his prospect ranking, but he didn't shoot himself up anybody's rankings either. Grade: B- (Short-term: C+, Long-term: B)

1/2 Sandwich Round, Pick 35 - Matt Davidson

Born: August 26, 1990 in Yucaipa, California School: Yucaipa HS Height: 6'3'' Weight: 215 Position: Third Base/First Base Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima - ABs: 270 BA/OBP/SLG: .241/.312/.319 XBH: 15 2Bs/2 HRs ISO: .078 K:BB: 75:21 SB:CS: 0:2 BABIP: .326 Errors: 13

Zephon: Going into the draft, Matthew Davidson was considered a solid, safe high school draftee with good skills across the board, but his best tool may be his potential to hit for serious power. Davidson, like Borchering, is a third basemen with an excellent bat, but questionable to average defense. He's got a ton of power potential, however he does have some holes in his swing. Nevertheless, he should end up being a plus bat. He's not really a fast baserunner, and stealing bases isn't part of his game, but he does have good instincts on the base paths, and he's not a bad baserunner. Davidson debut at first glance seems pretty underwhelming, although when compared to the league average stats for the Northwest league (264/342/380) it puts him just slightly below average. Once you compare Davidson's age of 18 against the league average of 21, it makes his year look a lot better. However, the 13 errors are troublesome, and may be a sign of a potential move to first base or the outfield if they continue. As I noted on Borchering, it's going to be interesting to see how the playing time breaks down between the three third basemen drafted this year. Borchering will probably get the first stab at third, so it leads to the question, where will Davidson play? Will he be moved to first, where we have Brandon Allen, Ryan Wheeler, and Paul Goldschmidt? Or will he moved to left field, where we have just as much of a positional jam? It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Slightly below average stat line, discounted for age, along with a few too many errors give Davidson a slightly below average grade. Grade: C- (short term: D+, Long term: C)

IHSB: There's really not much to say about Davidson. He's young (just turned 19, will be 19 for all of 2010 season) and just put together an absolutely craptastic season in Low-A (in a solid number of at-bats, mind you). Yes, he was a high school kid significantly below the average league age at Yakima, but at the same time, he was a 1/2 sandwich-round pick. These are guys that are supposed to be steadily climbing through the system, taking about a year for each A-ball stop, and a year or two each for AA and AAA, not guys about to repeat Low-A ball. The fact that Davidson already has gotten caught up in the system is absolutely concerning, and if he wants to be a top prospect, he needs to spend the first month of next season treating Low-A like it's the World Series and he's Chase Utley. This is especially true since it looks like his defense at third is unsalvagable based on the errors this year, so his bat will absolutely need to carry him through the system since he's going to be stuck at first. With Paul Goldschmidt and Ryan Wheeler ahead of him by miles, Davidson definitely has to be worried. Grade: D+ (Short-term: D-, Long-term: C+)

Round 5, Pick 156 - Ryan Wheeler

Born: July 10, 1988 in Torrance, California School: Loyola Marymount Univ. Height: 6'4'' Weight: 220 Position: First Base Bats: Left Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima - ABs: 234 BA/OBP/SLG: .363/.461/.538 XBH: 20 2Bs/3 3Bs/5 HRs ISO: .175 K:BB: 28:37 SB:CS: 7:4 BABIP: .394 Errors: 5

Mid-A South Bend - ABs: 29 BA/OBP/SLG: .345/.472/.552 XBH: 1 2B/1 3B/1 HR ISO: .207 K:BB: 4:5 SB:CS: 0:0 BABIP: .375 Errors: 0

Zephon: Ryan Wheeler flat out raked in both Yakima and South Bend, and was solid, if not spectacular in pretty much every facet of his game. He put up a great batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. He had a positve strike out to walk ratio, in addition to having an excellent ISO percentage. Who knows if Wheeler will have a place on the team, considering that during the team's entire existence, there has been a revolving door at first base. Wheeler will more than likely see time in Visalia next year, if he isn't assigned there at the beginning of next season. It's very possible that if he dominates Visalia, he could see time in Mobile, which would be amazing. This guy is too good, which is maybe why I'm a bit skeptical. Grade: A (Short-term: A, Long-term: A)

IHSB: I Love Ryan Wheeler. With just one short season of statistic evidence, Wheeler is the early front-runner for the best pick of the Diamondbacks' 2009 draft. That doesn't mean that he is the best prospect Arizona has from the draft, but he is the highest-ranked for where he was picked, as what appears to be a fifth-round steal for the Snakes. Wheeler has a massive power bat, keeping his ISO over .200 across two levels (which helps to ease BABIP concerns - despite a possible BA drop, he'll have that raw power to keep him on field), the second of which was advanced for his age (albeit for a very short stint), and is just 21 and headed to Visalia to start next season, and only because he did not have enough games at South Bend to justify a two-level jump. However, if he proves his dominance at Visalia quickly, fully expect the Diamondbacks to have a quick trigger in introducing the Southern League to Ryan Wheeler. 21-years-old at High-A is below league average, and 21-years-old at AA is way ahead of the curve. The only thing that I could see getting in Wheeler's way is a struggle to adjust to off-speed pitches, but his K/BB ratio last year (10 more walks than strikeouts - another reason to not worry too much about BABIP regression's effects) leads me to believe he has a great eye at the plate. So, although from day one scouts have agreed that Wheeler's bat would have to carry him through the minors, it definitely appears as though that will not be a problem. It is definitely good enough to handle him being planted at first base, and while his defense has been rumored to be suspect, he did only have five errors last season. However, it is also very possible that the reason for this is the classic Stone Pillar Technique (if a first-baseman has horrendous lateral range, i.e. that of a Stone Pillar, he cannot be in position to make an error on a ball hit far enough to either side of him because he is not in range to have a chance to make, and consequently screw up, a play) that can allow for first-basemen to appear much more proficient defensively than they are. Regardless, Wheeler certainly has time to develop if need be, and already is, in my opinion, one of the top-10 prospects the organization has. Grade: A+ (Short-term: A+, Long-term: A+)

Round 7, Pick 216 - Matt Helm

Born: September 01, 1990 in Queen Creek, Arizona School: Hamilton HS Height: 6'2'' Weight: 190 Position: Third Base Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima - ABs: 55 BA/OBP/SLG: .291/.339/.364 XBH: 1 2B/1 HR ISO: .073 K:BB: 16:4 SB:CS: 2:0 BABIP: .395 Errors: 0

Zephon: What's there to say? Matt Helm is a local boy, who's very young and will be 19 for the majority of next season. We're working with a very small amount of at bats, so there's not really any point in making any real judgement based on his numbers. He was a third basemen in high school, so if he stays at that position it's going to be tough for him to find a place on the major league team with Mark Reynolds holding down the fort for the forseeable future, not to mention the likes of Bobby Borchering and Matt Davidson also in the minors. As noted before, playing time next year will be extremely interesting in South Bend, with the three third basemen all assigned there. Borchering will most likely get the first stab at third, and the real question is where Helm will end up playing. The numbers he put up, although not bad, are disappointing, outside of the batting average. 'nuff said. Grade: C (Short-term: C-, Long-term: C+)

IHSB: The team signed Matt Helm to a pretty hefty bonus right before the deadline for signing draft picks, and frankly, from Helm's perspective, I just don't get it. The team picked both Bobby Borchering and Matt Davidson ahead of Helm, who play the two positions that Helm can play. The team has Mark Reynolds already entrenched at one of those positions in the majors. The kid slid to the seventh round because of injury concerns, and could have gone to college and worked his way into the upper rounds and gotten himself even more money. All of this aside, we ended up with a very young, high-ceiling corner infielder (especially for the seventh-round) who we'll really get to get a good look at next season, probably in Low-A Ball. It's not that Helm doesn't have a good future ahead of him, it's that it just probably isn't going to be in Arizona due to his path to the majors being blocked by a number of guys ranked higher than him. Grade: B (Short-term: N/A, Long-term: B)

Round 8, Pick 246 - Paul Goldschmidt

Born: September 10, 1987 in The Woodlands, Texas School: Texas State Height: 6'4'' Weight: 220 Position: First Base Bats: Right Throws: Right

Rookie-level Missoula - ABs: 287 BA/OBP/SLG: .334/.408/.638 XBH: 27 2Bs/3 3Bs/18 HRs ISO: .303 K:BB: 74:36 SB:CS 4:3 BABIP: .390 Errors: 4

Zephon: Goldschmidt had by miles the best season of any of the players drafted in 2009. Goldschmidt lead the Pioneer league in slugging percentage, OPS, ISO, and home runs. He was second in hits, walks, doubles, total bases, and on base percentage. He was also third in RBIs, and fifth in batting average. So as you can see, Paul Goldschmidt had a fantastic debut season. His ISO percentage is something that has to be mentioned, since it's an astronomically high .304 (just for comparison, Mark Reynolds' ISO this year was .283). The only area I see a problem is his k:BB ratio, which isn't bad, but could be better. If he can repeat this level of performance in Visalia, and work on his K:BB ratio, he'll be at or near the top of the Diamondbacks top prospect list. Unfortunately, he has some competition for the first base job with Brandon Allen possibly locking up the position at the major league level, and Ryan Wheeler putting up excellent numbers in his debut season in the minors. Grade: A (Short-term: A+, Long-term: A-)

IHSB: Much as I'd love to also fly the "Paul Goldschmidt for Savior" banners across my dorm room, one major factor that really needs to be mentioned is his age. 21-years-old isn't necessarily old for Rookie-ball, but it's important for a guy at that age and that level to put up good numbers, like Goldschmidt did, to have prospect value. He obviously proved that he was just put at the wrong level, and frankly I don't understand how the team didn't promote him at some point during to year to see if he could equal these numbers at another level and set himself up for a confident start at Hi-A next season, where he really honestly belongs, rather than him likely starting next year at Mid-A (mostly because Ryan Wheeler will be at Hi-A - perhaps if Wheeler and Goldschmidt both produce, Wheeler will get sent up to AA, allowing for Goldschmidt to inherit the Hi-A 1B job). The numbers are out-of-this-world ridiculous. 18 homeruns in your first professional season is unheard of. Small number of errors, although his D is supposedly suspect (Stone Pillar Technique? See Ryan Wheeler analysis for a definition). But I really need to see this type of production at a level where his age is ahead of the curve rather than behind the curve in order to label the guy a top prospect in the system. Also, there are concerns about precisely how open our first-base position is, with Brandon Allen in his early-twenties, and Ryan Wheeler ahead of Goldschmidt in the system. Absolutely, certainly, positively not a bad pick, but just not an A-pick, IMO. Wheeler, for instance, is younger and better than Goldschmidt. Grade: B+ (Short-term: A-, Long-term B)

With the 2009 season in the books, the Snakes added a ton of depth at the infield corners, leaving the convenient problem of now having to find at-bats for all of them next seasons. With his post-season power surge, the organization will probably move Borchering (who is younger than IHSB, Zephon, and emilylovesthedbacks - a crazy thought for all of us) ahead of Matt Helm and into the everyday third-baseman job at South Bend. Matt Davidson did nothing at Yakima last year to suggest that he belongs at any higher level, so he'll get the Yakima first-baseman everyday job. Wheeler will be the everyday first-baseman for Visalia to start next season after his power surge in both Yakima and South Bend. Helm only had 55 ABs at Yakima last year, and while he didn't necessarily struggle, he didn't demonstrate that he needs to be put ahead of Borchering, and so Helm will probably be the everyday third-baseman for Yakima again this season. Goldschmidt's numbers (and age) will warrant him a two-level jump and a jump ahead of Davidson in the system, and so he'll start at South Bend with their everyday first-baseman job.

Next week we'll be looking at the middle infielders in the draft -- Chris Owings, Brent Greer, David Nick, David Narodowski, and the possible anti-Christ (pick 666 himself). Stay tuned for part two! Before we close, I, Zephon, would just like to make note of the resources we used to create this series of articles: Minorleaguebaseball.com, Fangraphs.com, and Baseball-Reference.com; plus a special thanks to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and emilylovesthedbacks for doing the final edits to the article. I'd also like to thank Ihatesouthbend for collaborating with me on these articles. With out him, this series of articles wouldn't be possible, and wouldn't be nearly as good... So thanks dude. To everyone else, thanks for reading, and we'll see you next wednesday! (I couldn't wait any longer to post this one, so it's going up early)

Samurai Baseball

Zephon — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 04:01:26 -0000

Samurai Baseball

This is so cool! Can't explain, you just need to watch it.

The Draft Pick Signing thread

Zephon — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 20:58:27 -0000

With the 2009 draft signing deadline approaching us on the 17th, I thought it'd be appropriate to list off those who have and haven't signed with us. Special thanks to the DBBP for the list.

Round Overall Player Position School State Team

1 16 Bobby Borchering 3B Bishop Verot HS, Fort Myers, Fla. Fla. -Missoula
1 17 A.J. Pollock OF Notre Dame Ind. - South Bend
1s 35 Matt Davidson 1B Yucaipa (Calif.) HS Calif. - Yakima
1s 41 Chris Owings SS Gilbert (S.C.) HS S.C. - Missoula
1s 45 Michael Belfiore OF/P Boston College Mass. - Missoula
2 60 Eric Smith RHP Rhode Island R.I. - Missoula
2 64 Marc Krauss OF Ohio Ohio - South Bend
3 95 Keon Broxton 3B Santa Fe (Fla.) CC Fla. - Missoula
4 126 David Nick SS Cypress (Calif.) HS Calif. - Missoula
5 156 Ryan Wheeler 1B Loyola Marymount Calif. - Yakima
6 186 Bradin Hagens RHP Merced (Calif.) JC Calif. - Missoula
7 216 Matt Helm 3B Hamilton HS, Chandler, Ariz. Ariz.
8 246 Paul Goldschmidt 1B Texas State Texas - Missoula
9 276 Chase Anderson RHP Oklahoma Okla. - Missoula
10 306 Tyson Van Winkle C Gonzaga Calif. - Yakima
11 336 Richard Allen RHP Lyman HS, Longwood, Fla. Fla. -Missoula
12 366 Charles Brewer RHP UCLA Calif. - Missoula
13 396 Patrick Schuster LHP Mitchell HS, New Port Richey, Fla. Fla. -Missoula
14 426 Brent Greer SS Western Carolina N.C. - Yakima
15 456 David Narodowski SS Kansas Kan.- Missoula
16 486 Ryan Robowski LHP Ohio Dominican Ohio - Missoula
17 516 Andrew Wolcott RHP Duke N.C. - Yakima
18 546 Roidany Aguila C Colegio Nuestra Senora de la Providencia HS, Rio Piedras, P.R. - Missoula
19 576 Randy Hamrick SS Brewton-Parker (Ga.) Ga. - Yakima
20 606 Adam Worthington RHP Illinois-Chicago Ill. - Missoula
21 636 Daniel Taylor RHP Central Michigan Mich. - Yakima
22 666 Evan Button SS Mississippi Miss. - Yakima
23 696 Christopher Odegaard RHP Minnesota State-Mankato Minn. -Yakima
24 726 Brad Gemberling RHP Princeton N.J. - Yakima
25 756 Taylor Wrenn SS Manatee (Fla.) JC Fla.
26 786 Daniel Kaczrowski SS Hamline (Minn.) Minn.- Yakima
27 816 Jake Hale RHP Ohio State Ohio -Yakima
28 846 Brian Budrow RHP Utah Utah - Yakima
29 876 Jacob Williams 1B Brophy Prep, Scottsdale, Ariz. Ariz.
30 906 Jack Marder SS Newbury Park (Calif.) HS Calif.
31 936 Keith Cantwell RHP Seton Hall N.J. - Missoula
32 966 Will Harvill RHP Georgia Ga. - Yakima
33 996 Brad Wilson RHP Cal Poly Pomona Calif. - Yakima
34 1026 Patrick Cooper RHP Des Moines Area JC Iowa
35 1056 Zach Morgan RHP Shasta (Calif.) JC Calif.
36 1086 Mike Freeman SS Clemson S.C.
37 1116 Chris Jenkins OF Westchester (Calif.) HS Calif.
38 1146 Trevon Prince LHP (No School) Calif.
39 1176 Ryan Jones OF Wichita State Kan.
40 1206 Tim Sherlock OF Duke N.C. - Yakima
41 1236 Cade Kreuter 3B Hart HS, Newhall, Calif. Calif.
42 1266 Zach Hendrix 2B Emerald Ridge HS, Puyallup, Wash. Wash.
43 1296 Brooklyn Foster C Walnut Grove SS, Langley, B.C.
44 1326 Zach Varnell C Arkansas-Pine Bluff Ark. - Yakima
45 1356 Beau Amaral OF Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS Calif.
46 1386 Matt Ozanne OF Notre Dame Prep, Scottsdale, Ariz. Ariz.
47 1416 Mario Gallardo LHP West Los Angeles JC Calif.
48 1446 Juan Avila OF Narbonne HS, Harbor City, Calif. Calif.
49 1476 Jordan Luvisi OF Notre Dame Prep, Scottsdale, Ariz. Ariz.
50 1506 Frank Abbl RHP Mesa (Ariz.) CC Ark.

*players signed in bold

I would say the Dbacks have done well, signing 10 of their first 11 picks, and 34 out of their 55 picks signed. I wouldn't worry too much about Borchering not signing yet. From what I hear, Borchering is more than likely going to sign once the deadline gets closer.

Nick Piecoro / The Arizona Republic

Diamondbacks scouting director Tom Allison would like nothing more than to have news on his top pick, third baseman Bobby Borchering but instead said negotiations are in a holding pattern.

"It's kind of been 'hurry up and wait' so far," Allison said. "It's a matter of wait and see."

The Diamondbacks have offered Borchering, the No. 16 overall pick out of a Fort Myers, Fla., high school, a deal that includes a $1.5 million signing bonus. The club gave outfielder A.J. Pollock, the No. 17 overall pick, a $1.4 million bonus last month.

Allison noted that waiting to sign until the deadline - which this year is Aug. 17 - has become the rule rather than the exception.

"It's the process more than the player or the adviser," he said. "Only 12 guys in the first round have signed and it's July 24. That's the reality. And the guy it hurts the most is the high school position player."

Allison would like Borchering to be getting experience in rookie ball in advance of his first full season next year in Class A.

DFA Augie Ojeda

Zephon — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 16:14:00 -0000

Why?

Augie is hitting 220/314/299 this season, to the tune of a 613 OPS

His career batting line is 232/318/308, 626 OPS

He's 34, he sucks, and is on the decline. He's dead weight.

DFA him, and call up a guy like rusty ryal.

That is all.

Fangraphs: Chris "K" Young

Zephon — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 07:48:06 -0000

Fangraphs: Chris "K" Young

An interesting article on Chris Young, basically suggesting that Chris Young has been very unlucky. Worth a read.