I really didn't want to wait til the end of the year to skew the data with September call-ups so I'll post this now for your consumption.

For those who don't know, a simple google search on the subject will familiarize you with the concepts here as much work has been done on the subject in just the last year. Several fairly in depth models have been developed but I choose just to keep things simple with a aLD+bGB+cFB model. It isn't as good as the others, but it will still be pretty close and a lot easier to compute. If someone wants to run one of the better models for comparison, I would highly encourage it.

Lastly, this isn't a list of who is good/bad on the team, its an adjustment. Billy Butler is and will be a great hitter, even if he was lucky this year. The list below the jump.

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Just the luck, a major area of baseball statistical interest for me gets a major post by Mellinger and I’m out of town with the Fanpost already falling down the main page.  Well, I want to respond to a couple misconceptions about BABIP and I felt the comments section of our community response wouldn’t do it justice.  This is partly a summation of other’s ideas, partly my take on it, so feel free to correct me if you believe I have misstated some part.

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I thought about just adding a comment to the Aviles/Sickels thread, but as I think Mike Aviles will be the single most talked about person this off-season for RR, I wanted this to be a new post.

So, a lot of you read my look at xBABIP and the royals, but a central theme about some comments was what it really means. When comparing actual versus expected values, how does that translate to more traditional stats which actually tell you about on-field performance. i.e. what does a BABIP-xBABIP of .60 mean?

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kcdc1 recent post on the inherit problems with applying xBABIP to hitters lead me to do some work on if certain hitter types produce different results from batted balls. Obviously as technology improves, individual analysis will be possible, but for now, I still try to group players in well defined profiles. The data I’m using is from 2007 and includes only qualified batters, so this is an analysis of MLB regulars only. Also, home runs and infield flies are properly accounted for this time.

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Let’s take a look at some Royals hitters and how their luck and other factors have fared over the last few seasons.

I’m an economist that does forecasting for a living, so all these stats are a labor of love. Plus, I have become completely sold on this 3 true outcomes approach to baseball. Basically, I’m looking at the difference between BABIP and expected BABIP (an avg of a couple different methods to calculate it) to look for luck, which are the unlabled stats given. Also, I’m looking at line drive rate variance to see if expected BABIP is a reasonable estimation. I also like walk/k rates and isolated power (if all this sounds a lot like PECOTA minus its comparables, it should).

Quick note: of course young guys can improve, but this is a historical stat take on things to see how reliable those stats are for us to judge our guys on.

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quick and dirty question...
does anyone know (or know source) of the eBABIP equation?

I have a link to a guy who quotes .763LD% + .265GB% + .131FB% as the 2006 version.

I ran a regression on 2004-2008 batted balls and got .463LD% + .242GB% + .261FB%
but i know of some errors on that, but I didnt think they were that big of ones to get such a different result.

I have been running some stats on our boys looking for signs of hope, and I am trying to get a better idea of how lucky a team we are.

early results... TPJ very unlucky, but still bad

Usually this is a fun activity for the off-season, but given how many posts over the last few weeks have been on long term contracts, I think this would be a good time to think about future roster building. So post how you see the royals 2011 25 man roster to shape up, or just parts of it. Obviously projecting the 2011 bench and relief pitchers is next to impossible, but go ahead and give it a try. why 2011? guillen's contract expires and Moose is likely MLB ready.

oh, and one more thing, try doing it entirely from players currently in the organization. you can assume players leaving, but assume nothing incoming (free agents/trades/rule V) on the 25 man.

couple resources:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265472.html

http://www.freewebs.com/steelcurtain88/schematic.htm

here is a quick look at my 25 man, kinda illustrates what all this team needs going forward beyond what we have. and how much of our payroll we can afford to tie up with all the deals we might want to make now.

c       Buck
1b    Butler
2b    Callaspo
3b    Gordon
ss    McConnell
lf       Lubanksi
cf      Robinson
rf       Moustakas
dh     Kaaihue

b1    Donachie
b2    Johnson/Taylor (utility IF)
b3    Bianchi (utility IF/first bat off bench)
b4    Maier (Defensive OF/pinch runner)

s1    Greinke
s2    Cortes
s3    Hochevar
s4    Meche
s5    Soria

c1    Ramirez

r1    Rosa
r2    Mitchell
r3    Nunez
r4    Pimentel
r5    Wood
r6    Duffy

funny video on the royals, http://www.oldrichpeople.com/ currently has it on their main page

also, just cause i dont have 300 characters, thoughts on glavine declining option. probably going back to atl, but would dayton want someone like him, could be huge mentor for banny and grienke but can he pitch in the AL. I think no way but, like i said, 300 characters.

It's been a long time since I have posted, but this funny thing just happened and i thought some of you might get a kick out of it.

So, I am currently in Amsterdam (For your first question yes, your second, no). When I arrived here at the airport, I was wearing my royals powder blue t-shirt of a couple years ago. What do you know, but I see a man wearing a royals shirt. It was a really old style, think true royal blue but faded like it is really old, design of the ~85 team or so. Thinking i have found a royals fan this far from home, I wave him down, point at my own shirt and ask if he is from Kansas City. He comes up to me, and with a big smile and very stereotypical accent says, "I am Dutch, is that what this means." Both of us seemed quite confused over the confronation and walked in seperate directions.

Just tought you would like to know that royals international marketing is alive and well, just about 20 years late in sending its merchandise.

Also, I will be back I the US in another week or so, first time in a year now. If anybody has plans on seeing a game in the near future, let me know, Its been too long.

Hello everyone. after reading this blog pretty regularly for the last couple months, i thought it was time for me to start joining in on some discussions with all the recent happenings.
About me:
21 year old student who lives in London, England, grew up in the KC area. Royals broadcasts don't make it here to often. I have been following royals minor league prospects fairly heavily since the lubanski draft, getting the BA.com minor league stats update email everyday for 4 years now. I tend to follow the tools school of scouting over the stats one. Angel Berroa is still my favorite player. yes, i have seen him play, no, i won't change my mind, im sure i will defend him on more than a few posts in the near future. I like glass as an owner. if i can think of any other reasons for you to hate me right off the bat, ill try to add them later.