SB Nation User Blog: ZeppelinDZ

Aviles and PrOPS

ZeppelinDZ — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 14:25:53 -0000

I thought about just adding a comment to the Aviles/Sickels thread, but as I think Mike Aviles will be the single most talked about person this off-season for RR, I wanted this to be a new post.

So, a lot of you read my look at xBABIP and the royals, but a central theme about some comments was what it really means. When comparing actual versus expected values, how does that translate to more traditional stats which actually tell you about on-field performance. i.e. what does a BABIP-xBABIP of .60 mean?

Enter PrOPS (I'm gonna call it props to save wear and tear on my shift key). Props is short for predictive OPS. It was developed by economist JC Bradbury a couple years ago. Basically, it takes a bunch of peripheral rate stats and turns them into a luck neutral, semi-park neutral OPS number. here is the article introducing it.

It seems the exact formula is proprietary as far as I can tell, I have tried to reverse engineer it and have a working version w/o park factors, but since THT
reports the stat, its easy to look up. Now, I really like the concept of this. Its not perfect, but as a normalizing agent, it is my favorite stat I have found to see true performance.

Props isn't necessarily a predictive stat. However, if you can forecast the components that make up the calculation, it can be used in a way. I might do a little of that over the off-season.

Now, I said this post was about Mike Aviles, but I'm gonna be really quick on his analysis.

2008 props: .737

OPS - PrOPS = .096

that .096 would be the largest difference of ANY qualified batter this year.

Is a 740 OPS bad for a middle infielder? no. Can he improve? sure, but here are the fundamental components of OPS, which ones do you think he gets better at for his age 28 2009 season? What about a year of bad luck or a sophomore slump?

Line drives per batted ball
Groundball-to-flyball ratio
Walk rate
Hit-by-pitch rate
Strikeout rate
Home run rate
Home park of the player

I have said this about a dozen times now, I hope Aviles proves me wrong, but the 2009 Mark Quinn award seems well within reach.

P.S. for good news. props like gordon, dejesus, and shealy

Sexson waived...again

ZeppelinDZ — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 19:27:42 -0000

Sexson waived...again

"But the dramatic holes in the first baseman's swing made him too easy an out."

2 teams think he's crap now...is there anybody who still thinks we should sign him?

more BABIP thoughts

ZeppelinDZ — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 16:11:27 -0000

kcdc1 recent post on the inherit problems with applying xBABIP to hitters lead me to do some work on if certain hitter types produce different results from batted balls. Obviously as technology improves, individual analysis will be possible, but for now, I still try to group players in well defined profiles. The data I’m using is from 2007 and includes only qualified batters, so this is an analysis of MLB regulars only. Also, home runs and infield flies are properly accounted for this time.

I preformed a number of regressions, but I’ll spare most of the details as too technical for most, but if you are interested in them and/or the data email zeppelindz@gmail.com and I’ll help you out.

Power hitters:
I sorted players by both HR/AB and HR/FB and derived a new xBABIP equation for varying degrees of power and the results were unexpectedly conclusive.

Power hitters generate significantly more hits from ground balls and significantly less from fly balls. There was a jump in line drives as well, but it wasn’t as conclusive.

K Rates:
Sorted by K rate and had pretty much the same result as power hitters.

The conclusion on this, I believe, is fairly straight forward. These guys hit balls hard, causing more grounders to get through for hits (as postulated by kcdc1). However, hard hit fly balls result in fewer hits. This is likely caused by expectations. Opposing defenses know power hitters and play them deep frequently which takes these deep hits away at high rates. Also, just postulating here, power hitters likely hit fewer bloop singles, which classify as fly balls.

Speed:
I created a speed statistic using stolen bases, triple to double ratio, and infield hits to sort players. It’s somewhat arbitrary, but looking at the players used, I think it got a list of speed players for a valid result.

Surprisingly, speed seemed to have little effect. The rate of hits from ground balls actually went down very slightly (probably statistical noise).

Clutch:
I couldn’t resist, Fangraphs had a clutch stat which I sort players on to see its effect.
Well, no changes.

Clutch is independent of hit type it seems (remember, HRs are factored out which might change things).

As for the royals, this changes very little from my first post. The royals are great at having average players. Guillen barely fits in as a power hitter compared to the guys I analysis. Gathright, although very fast, doesn’t use his speed effectively to really be considered in the same category as some of my speedster sample. Bottom line, no result substantially change from, but there would be a few players who cross a threshold from say, slightly lucky to neutral or something like that. After the season is over, I’ll go back through with some of these findings and get a better idea of our roster and luck.

Questions, comments, or any additional player types you want tested?

KC Royals and BABIP

ZeppelinDZ — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:07:12 -0000

Let’s take a look at some Royals hitters and how their luck and other factors have fared over the last few seasons.

I’m an economist that does forecasting for a living, so all these stats are a labor of love. Plus, I have become completely sold on this 3 true outcomes approach to baseball. Basically, I’m looking at the difference between BABIP and expected BABIP (an avg of a couple different methods to calculate it) to look for luck, which are the unlabled stats given. Also, I’m looking at line drive rate variance to see if expected BABIP is a reasonable estimation. I also like walk/k rates and isolated power (if all this sounds a lot like PECOTA minus its comparables, it should).

Quick note: of course young guys can improve, but this is a historical stat take on things to see how reliable those stats are for us to judge our guys on.

Mark Teahen:
06: 0.037    very lucky    .290/.357/.517
07: 0.041    very lucky    .285/.353/.410
08: -0.015    unlucky       .243/.312/.381

Trends: solid walk rate, high K rate, unpredictable power, below ML avg LD%
Bottom Line: current numbers more likely to be the "real" Teahen, I'm really down on him after looking at those past BABIPs

John Buck:
05: -0.009    neutral       .242/.287/.389
06: -0.019    unlucky          .245/.306/.396
07: -0.030    very unlucky    .222/.308/.429
08: 0.008    neutral       .247/.323/.407

Trends: consistent production ind. of luck, good power, OK walk rate, high k rate, low LD%
Bottom Line: League average catcher offensively and very consistently such, Royals can win with that.

Alex Gordon:
07: 0.006    neutral        .247/.314/.411
08: 0.007    neutral        .252/.343/.406

Trends: increasing walk rate, developing power, high k rate, avg LD%, huge L/R splits
Bottom Line: Gordon's future lies on developing his incredible tools, learning to lay of the slider away from leftties

Joey Gathright:
05: 0.027    lucky       .276/.316/.340
06: -0.024    unlucky        .238/.321/.292
07: 0.020    lucky       .307/.371/.342
08: -0.007    neutral       .251/.302/.267

Trends: declining walk rate, very low and improving K rate, no power with some speed based doubles, variable but likely very low LD% with extreme GB tendancies
Bottom Line: 07 looks fluky with both luck and unusually high LD%, if that was his breakout year, he has regressed badly with career lows in several key areas.

Jose Guillen:
05: -0.012    neutral             .283/.338/.479
06: -0.047    very unlucky    .216/.276/.398
07: 0.034    lucky       .290/.353/.460
08: -0.014    neutral       .261/.291/.456

Trends: has forgotten how to take a walk as a Royal but was ok before, average K rate, great power, below avg LD%
Bottom Line: If he remembers how to walk at his career rate, legit batter, 91 OPS+ OF/DH until then.

Mike Aviles:
08: 0.067    wow lucky    .340/.365/.550

Trends: low walk rate, low K rate, legit power, avg LD%
Botom Line: flashing legit offensive tools, but contining the .340 average is a luck based pipedream. Age 27 rookie season is worrisome on development curve.

Tony Pena Jr.:
06: -0.047    Very unlucky    .227/.261/.341
07: -0.006    neutral                   .267/.284/.356
08: -0.117    God hates TPJ .148/.169/.196

Trends: very low walk rate, high K rate, low and dropping iso power, declining LD%
Bottom Line: I think 07 Pena is closer to the real offensive performance to expect, but does his defense offset what Aviles brings? RR.com has spoken

David DeJesus:
05: 0.010    neutral        .293/.359/.445
06: 0.005    neutral        .295/.364/.446
07: -0.014    neutral        .260/.351/.372
08: -0.013    neutral        .301/.361/.457

Trends: Good walk rate, very low and declining K rate, some power, great LD%
Bottom Line: The real deal! 07 was caused by low LD% unlike rest of career. Very excited about him.

Billy Butler (BAM BAM):
07: 0.014    neutral        .292/.347/.447
08: -0.001    neutral        .271/.331/.394

Trends: good walk rate, low K rate, developing power, low LD%
Bottom Line: Once he learns to drive the ball like he did in the minors, he becomes an elite hitter.

Ross Gload:
06: 0.024    lucky       .327/.354/.462
07: -0.007    neutral       .288/.318/.441
08: -0.027    unlucky        .275/.321/.346

Trends: low walk rate, very low K rate, lower than normal iso power - avg other years - doubles based, good LD%
Bottom Line: alot better than some people make him out to be, but below avg power, especially HRs, for a 1B limits his value, future is a ML bench

Mitch Maier:
sample size

Bottom Line: needs ABs to see who he is

Estaban German:
06: 0.073    extremely lucky    .326/.422/.459
07: -0.008    neutral    .264/.351/.376
08: -0.024    unlucky       .244/.300/.336

Trends: down year in general, historically, good walk rate, lowish K rate, light doubles power, avg LD%
Bottom Line: tough 08, but 07 numbers look repeatable. 350 OBP with low K rate can play, but still looks like super sub at best.

Alberto Callaspo
07: -0.077    very unlucky    .215/.265/.271
08: -0.019    unlucky    .290/.349/.330
small samples

Trends: avg walk rate, very low K rate, no power, good LD%
Bottom Line: I expected more power from him, but right now, a German clone in value. Future depends on what position Aviles ends up at.

Miguel Olivo:
05: -0.028    unlucky       .217/.246/.367
06: 0.007    neutral        .263/.287/.440
07: -0.002    neutral        .237/.262/.405
08: 0.024    lucky          .261/.293/.477

Trends: low walk rate, high K rate, good power, low LD%
Bottom Line: all his value stems from his ability to hit the long ball, which plays OK for a catcher. Good back-up, marginal starter

Mark Grudzielanek
05: 0.000    neutral        .294/.334/.407
06: -0.005    neutral        .297/.331/.409
07: 0.027    lucky    .302/.346/.426
08: 0.002    neutral        .299/.345/.399

Trends: Greek God of consistency, slightly below avg walk rate, low K rate, light power, exceptional LD%
Bottom Line: he has to breakdown at some point right?

need stat help (eBABIP)

ZeppelinDZ — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 21:07:26 -0000

quick and dirty question...
does anyone know (or know source) of the eBABIP equation?

I have a link to a guy who quotes .763LD% + .265GB% + .131FB% as the 2006 version.

I ran a regression on 2004-2008 batted balls and got .463LD% + .242GB% + .261FB%
but i know of some errors on that, but I didnt think they were that big of ones to get such a different result.

I have been running some stats on our boys looking for signs of hope, and I am trying to get a better idea of how lucky a team we are.

early results... TPJ very unlucky, but still bad

Kyle Davies

ZeppelinDZ — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 14:07:33 -0000

Kyle Davies

with all this mike aviles love going around, I think another player is getting overlooked for his hot streak. in 4 starts this year, kyle davies has allowed 1, 1, 1, and 1 run.

his walk rate is still high, and SO's are down a tad, but his hit rate is excellent and his overall strike% isn't terrible. still needs plenty more starts to really judge him, but he may be the hottest player on the team right now.

take that crappy 27 year old ss's with lifetime ops+ of 174!!

berroa and salary

ZeppelinDZ — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 16:27:45 -0000

berroa and salary

there was some debate over who paid the salary. Basically, everybody (ap, kc star, la times) all said royals picked up the salary, but the dodgers team site said differently. well, they amended it.

"The Dodgers will be responsible for only the remaining pro-rated portion of the Major League minimum salary for Berroa, not the $3.5 million remaining from his multi-year contract, as earlier reported."

royals got about .75 mil (buyout and pro rated min salary) and a crappy prosect for berroa

RR subtitles

ZeppelinDZ — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 16:03:51 -0000

RR subtitles

RR, whats with the changing blog subtitles... now we are top 300? wow

BA Top 200 Draft Prospects Chart

ZeppelinDZ — Fri, 23 May 2008 21:03:31 -0000

BA Top 200 Draft Prospects Chart

2011 Roster

ZeppelinDZ — Mon, 19 May 2008 20:24:19 -0000

Usually this is a fun activity for the off-season, but given how many posts over the last few weeks have been on long term contracts, I think this would be a good time to think about future roster building. So post how you see the royals 2011 25 man roster to shape up, or just parts of it. Obviously projecting the 2011 bench and relief pitchers is next to impossible, but go ahead and give it a try. why 2011? guillen's contract expires and Moose is likely MLB ready.

oh, and one more thing, try doing it entirely from players currently in the organization. you can assume players leaving, but assume nothing incoming (free agents/trades/rule V) on the 25 man.

couple resources:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265472.html

http://www.freewebs.com/steelcurtain88/schematic.htm

here is a quick look at my 25 man, kinda illustrates what all this team needs going forward beyond what we have. and how much of our payroll we can afford to tie up with all the deals we might want to make now.

c       Buck
1b    Butler
2b    Callaspo
3b    Gordon
ss    McConnell
lf       Lubanksi
cf    Robinson
rf       Moustakas
dh     Kaaihue

b1    Donachie
b2    Johnson/Taylor (utility IF)
b3    Bianchi (utility IF/first bat off bench)
b4    Maier (Defensive OF/pinch runner)

s1    Greinke
s2    Cortes
s3    Hochevar
s4    Meche
s5    Soria

c1 Ramirez

r1    Rosa
r2    Mitchell
r3    Nunez
r4    Pimentel
r5    Wood
r6    Duffy