SB Nation User Blog: Ziller

I’m not sure Odom is the answer. I’m in the camp of keeping the roster largely intact, starting t...

Ziller — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 13:59:51 -0000

I’m not sure Odom is the answer. I’m in the camp of keeping the roster largely intact, starting the year with Odom at the three and seeing how it works out. If it does not, see who is available at the trading deadline. Or, even let him walk and see if you can save the money (if someone like Ariza really steps up). Any of that is better than bringing in Ron Artest.

Forum Blue & Gold, opposing those Artest-to-L.A. rumors

Meet David Johnson

Ziller — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 13:29:58 -0000

One of the names on the summer league roster you haven't heard before: David Johnson. (That's him in the Blue Devils jersey, jumping over a 6'8 Woodland Warrior.) Well, maybe you've heard of him if your kid plays basketball at Holmes Junior High in Davis. That's where Johnson coaches 7th- and 8th-grade boys and girls basketball.

Johnson is locally-bred, attending Davis High in the late '90s. He was recruited by programs including Oregon State, St. Mary's, and Cal, but couldn't make grades. He ended up playing ball at Napa Valley College for a little bit, but had to begin working full-time to raise his two young children. Along with his work at Holmes Junior High, Johnson trains one-on-one with other players throughout the region.

Geoff Petrie gave him a shot this summer, and here's what Johnson has to say about it:

"I'm really excited about having this opportunity to showcase my talent, thanks to Geoff Petrie. For those of you who'd like to know what my outlook is on basketball; I believe that defense is the ultimate offense. If you've noticed, a majority of the players put all of their focus into offense but put absolutely no emphasis on improving their defensive skills. I appreciate someone who has the courage to go hard on BOTH sides of the floor--or at least try. I believe that anyone can throw the ball up and just by luck, it can go in. But if you have D, you can actually put a halt to all of their luck. Therefore, you never lose."

I asked David (through his wife Jessica -- who I should thank for all the info and the photo) if his goal in Las Vegas is to get notice by a D-League team or European club.

"My ultimate goal is not to go to D-League, nor Europe. Rather, it's to become a Sacramento King. I'd love to be a part of a great franchise."

The odds are extremely tough -- the Kings have 13 guaranteed contracts already, not counting the second-round picks -- but Vegas has been surprising before. We wish David luck in Vegas and wherever else basketball takes him.

The same teams that were intererested in Artest before he committed to the final year (and $7.4 m...

Ziller — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:55:45 -0000

The same teams that were intererested in Artest before he committed to the final year (and $7.4 million) of his contract continue to find him appealing, especially in light of his expiring contract. The Lakers, Miami Heat, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, among others, will be exchanging phone calls with in the near future.

Ailene Voisin on The Bee Blog

On Our Friends in Seattle

Ziller — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 05:20:30 -0000

I really have little left to say about the atrocious, dastardly haps in Seattle over the past two seasons. It is an absolute shame, and I continue to feel every emotion I conjured up in this column on the subject back in March.

I hope Seattle beats the odds and gets a new team soon. And I hope the New Sonics beat the snot out of Clay Bennett's team by 50 every time the Un-Sonics dare visit the Emerald City.

The Only Explanation: Ron Artest Has Bad Representation

Ziller — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 01:31:48 -0000

As Carl noted in the previous thread, Sam Amick offers more depth to that story from ESPN's Marc Stein from earlier this afternoon.

The backstory here involves a conference call the small forward had this morning with Kings basketball president Geoff Petrie and Artest's agent, Mark Stevens. It appears that Artest was under the impression that there was a high likelihood the Kings would discuss his eventual signing to a long-term extension. But after numerous sources have said for months that such a move was highly unlikely, Artest and Stevens had continued to talk as if it was a strong possibility.

Petrie said in a phone interview minutes ago that he had a "candid" conversation with Artest but that "he wasn't too inclined to (say) much further than that."

If Artest thought Petrie was going to drop a multi-year deal on his lap this morning after desperately trying to trade him for Linas Kleiza and Eduardo Najera at the deadline, then Ron-Ron has received painfully poor information. No one in the world -- except Ron and his agent, apparently -- thought there'd be a chance the Kings would lock Artest up this summer.

If this stems from those Joe Maloof comments a few months ago -- basically, Maloof told a few radio shows the team would consider offering Artest a long-term deal only if he did not opt out -- then it's even worse. I assume Stevens knows how to reach Petrie. There's no excuse to be this misinformed about the team's very obvious plans.

This hurts Artest, just like Stevens' statement in 2006 that Artest did not want to play in Sacramento hurt, and just like Stevens' meddling in the trade talks this past winter likely hurt. Has Stevens done one thing in Ron's best interest?

Maybe Ron-Ron Should Stop Emailing Reporters?

Ziller — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 22:51:02 -0000

The warm feelings lasted a long, long time.

Artest told ESPN.com on Tuesday that he wishes now he had opted for unrestricted free agency, like Brand and Davis, instead of electing to play out the final year of his contract with the Kings next season at $7.4 million.

Artest also conceded that his long-term future is likely not in Sacramento, saying via e-mail: "I don't see myself with [the] Kings beyond 2008-09.

"I think I made the biggest mistake by staying in my contract and I have to live with it," Artest said. "I had some misleading information [in making the] decision on not opting out. [But] I still thank G-d for all his blessings and being able to play basketball and help people."

Who misled Ron? His agent? Don't worry, Ron-Ron: it's not because Mark Stevens has shady motives, it's because you're his only client and he seems to know less than he think he does.

Don't worry, really. Either the team overperforms and you're on a winner, or Geoff Petrie will deal you to a playoff team by the deadline. No frets, man.

Also: I have no clue why ESPN.com editors or Marc Stein himself would bleep the word "God." Damn Heathens!

UPDATE, 6:09 p.m.: I now know why the 'o' would be omitted in the word 'God.' Thank you to Josh for setting me straight. I apologize to Stein and anyone I may have offended. I'm just a dumb Catholic.

UPDATE #2, 6:10 p.m.: By 'I'm just a dumb Catholic,' I mean to say 'I am dumb and a Catholic,' not that Catholics are by definition dumb. I apologize to His Holiness and Denis Leary.

Amick: Beno's Back

Ziller — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 20:14:02 -0000

Sam Amick is reporting that Beno Udrih has accepted that $32 million, five-year deal from the Kings. As I said in my long analysis of why exactly Beno shouldn't be getting the full mid-level for five years from Sacramento, I'm not mad at this. I'm not sure it's the perfect move, but it sure as Hades beats Chris Duhon.

Welcome back, Beno. But cut your hair and put on some pants, for God's sake.

UPDATE: Chad Ford and Beno used to kick it at this crazygood pastry shop in Ljubljana (or something), so Ford gets the quote:

"I am so happy and honored to be returning to the Kings," Udrih told ESPN.com. "They took a chance on me and believed in me. I can't wait to get back to my teammates and the city that has become home to me."

Translation:

"I need some frickin' In-n-Out and a Hefeweizen from Sudwerks!"

The Problems With Beno

Ziller — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 18:43:33 -0000

It's understood that with a core assumed to be focused on the continued development of Kevin Martin and Spencer Hawes, the Sacramento Kings intend to build an elite offense. Of course, with Jason Thompson and Francisco Garcia (and Ron Artest, for now) aboard, defense won't be relegated to nothingness. But offense will be the priority, I'd imagine.

Beno Udrih is not a defensive stalwart. He's a bit strong, but not strong enough or long enough to make up for his lateral unquickness. I won't bolt him to Bibby status or assure Chris Paul will drop 30/15 every time the Hornets visit, but I'm certainly not going to pretend Beno can become a stopper or anything resembling a great defender.

So, Beno's offense: is it good enough to help the Kings put together an elite assault? The early returns would seem good: Sacramento had the #13 offense in the league last season, despite missing a month of Martin and a month of Artest. The offense got better under Beno, though some of that could also be attributed to more touches for Martin, better efficiency from Artest, and the elimination of Eric Musselman's clusterjunk.

On the individual level, Beno has proven to be an exceptional deep shooter, a strong penetrator, and capable of bringing the ball up the floor without wasting 10 seconds. There are two things keeping him from being a great offensive PG, though ... and I'm not confident either can be fixed.

He doesn't finish well.
Our view of Beno's talent has been clouded seriously by Mike Bibby's long-observed weaknesses. Near the end of his Sactown reign, Bibby stopped driving to the rim. It wasn't because he became a better shooter or because teams clogged the lane against him -- he just couldn't finish any more. He still drew fouls, but it's understandable that once you stop making lay-ups regularly, you're going to stop taking it inside. Bibby lost a touch of his never-spectacular athleticism, and lost at least half-a-step as he aged. Those factors conspired to make him an inefficient finisher, which lead to less penetration, which lead to fewer nifty assists and more jumpers, which lead to less offensive chemistry and less individual consistency. And that's all folks -- Bibby's no longer an elite PG.

Beno wasn't a good finisher last season, and has been below-average on his career. Using NBA.com's excellent Hot Spots data, I broke the field goal percentages on layups or 'close' shots for a random collection of starting point guards. I didn't go after everyone, but tried to include some similarly styled (shoot-first) PGs.

Udrih       -- 50.2%
T. Parker -- 59.8%
A. Miller   -- 58.9%
Nash       -- 56.7%
Telfair      -- 45.1%
B. Davis -- 54.9%
Alston      -- 46.5%
Calderon -- 66.3%
Ford         -- 51.3%
Billups     -- 56.6%
Arroyo      -- 53.2%
Nelson    -- 58.8%
Harris      -- 55.8%
Kidd         -- 44.4%
Rondo     -- 54.3%

It's hardly scientific, but ... most of the great offensive PGs on that have high inside FG%s, yeah? Alston's better than he looks -- he makes a ton of threes. Telfair's simply awful. Kidd's overrated, but passes better than everyone but Nash (at a cost -- both those guys make a ton of turnovers).

What this says to me, though: great offensive PGs can finish at the hoop. Beno's not so hot in this category. He's better than Bibby has been his past two seasons (48.8% in 2006-07, 46.8% in 2007-08), but closer to that pole than fellows like Billups, Nash and Calderon.

Thanks to Beno's exceptional three-point shooting and good mid-range game, this isn't a pox on his game. But at the very least, the iffy finishing hurts the other factor killing his chance at being a great offensive weapon ...

He does not regularly help his teammates get easy shots.
The assist is a tricky matron, and I'm not going to get into all of that noise here. A quick summary of my thinking on the subject: assists are overrated, but probably important to some degree, but painfully misunderstood. That Tony Parker is not considered one of the elite point guards in this league because of his low assist totals is a great sham. There is historically no connection between offensive efficiency and assist percentages, nor between shooting percentages and assist percentages. On the whole, according teams and seasons, assists add nothing to a team's offense.

But certain players most certainly depend on good passes to get good opportunities to score. I'd even say all players would be helped by a good pass. This roster has a few of those guys -- Martin's a stunning isolation threat, but give him some screens, some kick-outs, some lobs and he becomes one of the best offensive weapons in the league. Spencer Hawes needs help getting loose inside -- he's not strong enough to establish deep position against most post defenders, so his dunks are going to need to come off picks-and-rolls and transition opportunities. (Ditto Shelden Williams and, I suspect, Jason Thompson.) Francisco Garcia is much, much better as a spot-up shooter than an off-the-dribble threat. I imagine Quincy Douby would be similar if he ever got any minutes.

How much of that is Beno offering? I'm trying to remember a single Beno-to-Martin alley-oop; I can clearly recall two deliveries from Anthony Freaking Johnson in one half. That glorious "Shock and Hawes" highlight against the Lakers -- Beno drove and dished back to a bulldozin' Hawes for the transition jam. That was way too rare ... way too rare.

I hardly think it's a coincidence the Kings became the worst 'assists' team in the league when Beno took over. He doesn't have the tunnel vision of the true chuckin' PGs, but passing is clearly the last resort when he drives the lane. That's good sometimes, as the Sacramento frontcourt of 2007-08 either couldn't hang onto a ball (Mikki Moore) or finish with a jam (Brad Miller) -- but with Hawes and (hopefully) Thompson, and Garcia and Martin on the wings, the pass off the drive will be the preferred play ... especially with Udrih's stated problems finishing in the lane.

Is the low assist performance of '07-08 a product of Beno's intuition about his teammates? Highly unlikely, considering his record in San Antonio. This can improve marginally, but don't bet on Beno's rebirth as the next Calderon.

(Turnovers are also a problem, but it's a lesser concern as his numbers there aren't atrocious and it's something that usually gets better with age and experience.)

To sum up: I'm not mad at Beno at the full mid-level for five years. I just happen to think -- with the above arguments leading the way -- that he's not going to be good enough to get you where you need to be offensively in order to balance your obvious defensive warts. He's almost certainly the best option next season, and almost certainly for 2009-10 as well. Beyond that, you're risking being stuck with a good point guard when you need to a great one (on either end).

Imagine if Sacramento, a team looking to save money, dumped Geoff Petrie and its scouts and turne...

Ziller — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 16:26:42 -0000

Imagine if Sacramento, a team looking to save money, dumped Geoff Petrie and its scouts and turned the organization over to its passionate fan base. The Maloofs could hire SacTown Royalty's Tom Ziller as the de facto General Manager and give him the authority to contact teams about trades. But, all final decisions would be made through a vote on the blog.

New policy: You endorse me for a six-figure job, you get a link. Thank you, Brian McCormick, you crazy man.

An Excruciating Play-By-Play Breakdown of Game 6

Ziller — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 15:26:49 -0000

An Excruciating Play-By-Play Breakdown of Game 6

Via TrueHoop. Most painful thing I've read in years ... and I'm a Sacramento Magazine subscriber!