SB Nation User Blog: ZonaFlash

News Flash: the Blog War is on

ZonaFlash — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:24:59 -0000

We've been quite polite these past weeks as we have endured the infestation of a number of Dubs trolls. Some of them have been polite and interesting. Some have been so obnoxious that they've even been banned from the SB Nation Warriors Blog, Golden State of Mind. I like the trolls, they make laugh and liven up the discussion with their hopelessly hopeful views about the future of their team.

And truth be told, I love what the Dubs did to Dallas, love the wild west run-and-gun and the stellar community over at GSOM.

However, enough is really enough.

I find it humorous that they think they can disrespect our team better than we can. We diss our team everyday, for years. We dress down everyone from owners, mgmt to bench hopefuls. Leave the dirty work to the pros. What troll or casual Dubs fan can insult our team better than we do? Reading their naive, juvenile criticisms is laughable.

(I have to confess, dissing Steve Kerr as "one of the worst writers in the history of Yahoo! Sports" was a masterstroke beyond anything I have ever dreamed to say about him, although it could have been even better if AR4 had said "THE worst writer in the spotty early history of Yahoo! Sports" - Kudos there, AR4!)

I don't know which is more pathetic, that the Suns prestige has fallen so low as to receive gleeful criticism from the likes of casual Golden State Warriors fans, or Warriors fans who's team has been rolling in the NBA equivalent of a Pontiac Fiero for the past 15 years and are now happy because someone else's Aston Martin is broken. Sure both cars are sporty... sort of...

"Ha ha! Your Aston Martin is broken!!" Dubs fans are gloating.

"But dood, you are still driving that same Pontiac Fiero for the past 15 years...." I say

"I'm saving for a Aston Martin...someday...maybe.... I wish... Ha ha! Your Aston Martin is broken!!" they say.

I don't even know how to reply to that logic. =D

Now, while you need not my encouragement, dear friends and suns fans, I give you free license to go over to GSOM and disabuse them of their misconceptions. I am sending you out like sheep among wolves. You must be wise as snakes and as innocent as doves.

I do give you some warnings, however - they run a tight ship at GSOM. Without question, the bloggers that run GSOM are class acts, true NBA fans and by and large it is a outstanding community that does not suffer fools gladly, even if those fools are Dubs believers. Here's a few tips for trolling GSOM:

Actually READ what was posted before replying
No damn swearing of any kind or you'll be warned/banned
USE correct spellgni, punctuation!,., CaPITaLiZaTiOn and grammars or ur post will be hiddenz
No name calling! (You have to be more clever or obtuse about it - try "Some people might think that any fan who believes Stephen Curry can overcome Nellie's atrocious coaching to produce a perennial playoff team has had too many bud lights." or "My opinion is that your opinion is about as valid as that of a rotten vegetable in the garbage disposal." or "I feel that you are as smart as the love children of Kevin McHale and Isiah Thomas." I learned in my relationship classes that you can say anything you want as long as you say "I feel..." first.)
Don't be dumb! nuff said.

If you feel the need to correct a troll on BSotS, help yourself, they are second class citizens. If you piss them off, I'll rec your post. You can dispense with rulez 2 and 3 and even rule 1, but the otherz stillz applyz.

And remember, the Suns are trying to do something different. It may not work and its a hard road. So what at least they aren't complacent. The Dubs aren't trying to do anything different. If anything, the Dubs are trying to relive the past with players of the future. The only problem is the past didn't involve a lot of wins. If they want to be a West Coast power, Nellie has to go.

Question for GSOMers

ZonaFlash — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:17:44 -0000

Let's get beyond the Amar'e / Biedrins trade. It just ain't gonna happen.

So, what can we get for J Rich? We're motivated to move him. =D

The Phoenix Suns are...

ZonaFlash — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:24:28 -0000

The Year of the Yo-Yo Trade

ZonaFlash — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 16:48:49 -0000

For a brief moment today, amid the turmoil of the Suns and the disaster that awaits the team in the 2010 bidding war, I toyed with the idea I might actually like the San Antonio Spurs, now that they jettisoned that awful excuse for an NBA player, Bruce Bowen.

The moment came and went like lightning, as I realized, Bruce Bowen isn't gone at all. He and Kurt Thomas will be bought out before mid-season and they'll be back on the Spurs in no time. After all, what could the rebuilding Milwaukee Bucks possible want old fossils like Kurt Thomas and Bruce Bowen? How could they have not even asked about young talents George Hill or Roger Mason? I guess they did get prospect Amir Johnson for Fabricio Oberto from another more desperate rebuilding team. The Detroit Pistons also traded talent for cash. They are expected to waive Fabricio Oberto immediately to get out of his contract.

Welcome to the Year of the Yo-Yo Trade.

The trade is simple - take an old player that is of limited value but has an expiring contract. As I wrote about the other day, there's a lot of expiring contracts this year in prep for bidding war 2010. You trade the old player to the rebuilding team, a team that has no interest in veterans. You get their valued assets which they are effectively trading away for nothing. Then the rebuilding team buys out the player, the player is old and tired of moving, or is sentimental about the team that traded them, and poof, they come back for the minimum.

The genius of the trade is that Pop traded away the one player, Bruce Bowen, that no team in the NBA wants - except the San Antonio Spurs. He will be bought out of his expiring contract with certitude, and then, will be resigned with the Spurs, probably for the minimum. This will garner him a financial bonus depending on his buyout, and will effectively mean that Milwaukee will subsidize about $3 million of San Antonio's salary expenses.

You can expect to see a record number of Yo-Yo trades this year. With so few teams vying for a title and so many teams clamoring for cap space in an ill-fated attempt to woo the top free agents of 2010, which we now find out will likely include both Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver, the Yo-Yo trade is now in full effect.

All I can say is

"Shame on you, rebuilding teams. How dare you trade your top assets for cash and not get any talent back. You will spend an extra 5 years in the NBA cellar for it."

Through the lens of 2010

ZonaFlash — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 19:43:32 -0000

With the unraveling of Amar'e's future in Feenix, I've taken a much greater interest in the 2010 Free Agent sweepstakes. The sweepstakes is an unprecedented anomaly of contractual convergence that I would have wished could have passed Phoenix by.

However, it is upon us, and as any good armchair economist, weekend engineer or junior physicist knows, the only way to make sense of the 2009 Free Agent season starting in the next few days is to solve backwards, and understand it through the lens of 2010 Free Agency, when more players will move cities in the off-season than ever in the history of the NBA.

Here's list of 2009 Free Agents

What Created the 2010 Bonanza?

The strong draft of 2003 and changes in the CBA, created the Free Agent Bonanza of 2010. The 2010 draft is headlined by the first, fourth and fifth players drafted in 2003, Lebron James, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade, respectively. Number 2 draftee Darko Milicic never lived up to the hype and Carmelo Anthony has accepted a contract with the Denver Nuggets that will keep him out of Free Agency one year longer than his peers.

The reduction in contract length's by one year may have also helped cause the 2002 and 2003 contracts to come up at the same time, so the 2010 opt out festivities may include the top draft picks of 2002, namely Yao Ming and Amare Stoudemire. Finally the widepsread use of player options help players time the free agent market, either jumping into the 2010 party or taking the risk a year later that teams won't be too financially strapped from overbidding to offer a good contract.

The Effect of Player Options on NBA Players

I kid you not, the upcoming NBA unemployment in 2010 is shocking, even without comparison numbers. Only 113 players of a minimum 390 players have a contract 367 days from now. That's less than 29% employment for you calculator jockeys at home. The worst offender, as you might guess, is Miami. Aside from newly drafted rookies, Miami only has one head under contract for 2010/2011 and that's Dwayne Wade. D-Wade has a player option for that year, so he may not even be with Miami, giving Miami 0 for 13 possible players. What will Miami look like in 367 days? Your guess is a good as mine.

Now sure, all those unemployed NBA players will find jobs, there's 277 or so open spots. Some of them will get their spot in the next 2 days. However, by and large, many average NBA players will be subject large changes in the team rosters by 2010, because of unintended consequences of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, mainly the rampant and wanton use of player options.

No less than 57 players currently under contract have player options. Only 4 notable players, Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter, Josh Howard and Steve Nash, are under contracts with team options. With the exception of Vince Carter, these guys signed their contracts before they became big stars. By and large, only rookie contracts and deep bench players have contracts with team options.

A player option, in general, is not a bad idea. It shifts valuable decisions in favor of a star player and provides a non-monetary benefit with significantly huge monetary value. Ask any financial economist and they could put a large dollar value on these player options -- probably a few million dollars.

However, while this shift in value is to the benefit of players, it benefits only the max contract players that can negotiate these options, while lesser players and rookies must acquiesce to team options. Another way to see the trade-off is to consider the firm pressure from the salary cap and luxury tax. If a star player earns a better contract via timing the Free Agent market, then the surplus comes not from owners but from a star's teammates who must then earn less. These non-superstars, as we shall see, are the ones that will be paying the price for the Free Agent sweepstakes of 2010.

Still these NBA players are not the only ones paying, as teams will expend enormous financial and personnel resources to woo superstars. The fans will also suffer from the team merry-go-round. Some lucky fans will like the end results, but most will not.

Over-Bidding War 2010 - Who's in

Some teams have long been in the 2010 sweepstakes (Miami was the innovator). Other teams have headed that way, holding on to shreds of hope for redemption (NYK, NJN). Still others are inevitably roped into the sweepstakes by the bad luck of having a star with a 2010 player option (Cleveland, Miami, Toronto, PHX). I say bad luck instead of bad foresight, because, after offering a max contract with all the perqs, what else can management offer but the player option?

A cursory look at the financial obligations of teams going into 2010 tells you who's in the sweepstakes and who's out. However, the cursory look is wrong in any number of ways. So here, I adjust the numbers. I make two adjustments. (1) I assume teams always exercise their team options and qualifying offers. 90% of the time they do, simply because these contracts are often for cheap talent with decent upside. (2) Second, I assume every player opts out of their player options in 2010. Many of them will, although some will not. As a third case, I'll look at people like Eddy Curry and Kenyon Martin, who we expect to have enough sense not to opt out in 2010.

Through the analysis, we will see that New Jersey is not nearly as well positioned for Free Agency 2010 as first thought and that a number of teams, without announcing such, have positioned themselves for a bidding war, unless they make some big steps this off-season.

The numbers here come from www.Hoopshype.com . (Thank you very much for providing them.)

Rank	Team	Obligations
1	New Jersey	$6,628,000
2	Detriot	$11,148,760
3	Portland	$12,205,300
4	OKC	$13,485,484
5	Memphis	$15,382,777
6	Miami	$17,149,243
7	NYK	$18,160,263
8	Minnesota	$20,518,000
9	Altanta	$24,180,000
10	Chicago	$26,163,850
11	Houston	$28,040,600
12	Sacramento	$30,105,005
13	Cleveland	$35,977,466
14	Milwaukee	$40,437,750
15	Toronto	$40,631,243
16	PHX	$41,202,544
17	Utah	$42,261,080
18	LA Clippers	$43,392,111
19	Boston	$44,726,729
20	GSW	$45,414,000
21	SAS	$47,200,000
22	Wiz	$49,063,676
23	Dallas	$49,538,524
24	Charlotte	$50,649,075
25	Indiana	$56,158,439
26	Philly	$56,566,789
27	Denver	$58,204,697
28	NOH	$64,696,130
29	Orlando	$66,345,822
30	Lakers	$67,205,882

The first thing to note is that some of the top teams are clearly not in the 2010 sweepstakes. The Lakers figure to take care of their business this off-season, dealing with Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza. Above the luxury tax, they will be complete no-shows to next year's hysterics. Orlando is also likely out, having brought in Vince Carter. There are a number of bad teams without much financial flexibility here too. Indiana, Philly, Goldent State and Charlotte can really only hope to get dramatically better through the draft, internal development and trades. They will not be able to bring in several stars.

Now if we adjust the numbers, allowing teams to pick up their options and player to opt out, we see a bit of change:

Rank	Team	Adjusted Obligations
1	NYK	$ 5,435,041
2	Miami	$ 12,619,096
3	Houston	$ 15,618,741
4	Detriot	$ 15,875,463
5	Cleveland	$ 18,828,223
6	New Jersey	$ 19,939,675
7	Boston	$ 23,213,208
8	Altantla	$ 24,180,000
9	Milwaukee	$ 24,901,350
10	OKC	$ 27,138,099
11	Toronto	$ 27,317,738
12	Portland	$ 29,177,090
13	PHX	$ 29,469,287
14	Memphis	$ 30,298,446
15	Minnesota	$ 31,995,649
16	Dallas	$ 39,860,000
17	Chicago	$ 41,095,352
18	Denver	$ 42,513,632
19	Sacramento	$ 42,728,881
20	Utah	$ 47,339,291
21	SAS	$ 50,305,910
22	Charlotte	$ 50,649,075
23	Indiana	$ 51,412,759
24	LA Clippers	$ 51,924,530
25	NOH	$ 52,942,522
26	GSW	$ 56,098,905
27	Wiz	$ 60,366,310
28	Philly	$ 63,429,903
29	Lakers	$ 70,080,008
30	Orlando	$ 71,642,012

This shows, that because Paul Pierce holds a player option in excess of 17 million, Boston is clearly in the 2010 sweepstakes (at 9 instead of 19 on the financial obligations). It's up to Boston to lock up Pierce this offseason with an extension, or to face a bidding war with the likes of Heat, Nets and the Knicks. Boston also of course needs to decide on Ray Allen this offseason (FA).

As also can be seen, PHX and Dallas appear closer to participation in the sweepstakes, with Amar'e and Dirk having large options in the offseason. We already expect Amar'e to opt out given Phoenix's apparent refusal to offer a max extension. Dirk on the other hand, appears highly likely to stay in Dallas. For all intents and purposes, one would like Dallas is completely out of the sweepstakes.

In the final round of numbers, I reflect the certitude that Eddy Curry will stay with the Knicks for $11 million and that Dirk will also stay with Dallas. And Kenyon Martin will exercise his option at $16.5 million as well, effectively taking Denver out of the sweepstakes.

Rank	Team	Likely Obligations
1	Miami	$ 12,619,096
2	Houston	$ 15,618,741
3	Detriot	$ 15,875,463
4	NYK	$ 16,711,904
5	Cleveland	$ 18,828,223
6	Altantla	$ 24,180,000
7	Milwaukee	$ 24,901,350
8	Toronto	$ 27,317,738
9	PHX	$ 29,469,287
10	Memphis	$ 30,298,446
11	New Jersey	$ 31,939,675
12	OKC	$ 32,938,099
13	Portland	$ 36,582,390
14	Minnesota	$ 39,513,649
15	Chicago	$ 41,095,352
16	Sacramento	$ 42,728,881
17	Boston	$ 44,726,729
18	SAS	$ 50,305,910
19	Charlotte	$ 50,649,075
20	Indiana	$ 51,412,759
21	LA Clippers	$ 51,924,530
22	NOH	$ 52,942,522
23	GSW	$ 56,098,905
24	Denver	$ 59,059,086
25	Wiz	$ 60,366,310
26	Philly	$ 63,429,903
27	Utah	$ 65,151,639
28	Lakers	$ 70,080,008
29	Orlando	$ 71,642,012
30	Dallas	$ 73,208,524

How certain you are about Houston being in the sweepstakes depends on how you feel about Yao Ming moving. I don't think he will, but how would I know? San Antonio's obligations are also higher, since they intend to re-sign Manu (FA). They'll commit about 65 million to four players, and then play scrubs for the rest. New Jersey ($40 million in obligations) doesn't appear nearly as competitive when you consider Devin Harris' free agency.

Overall, there appears to be more than 10 teams with less than $30 million in obligations 367 days from now. One thing for sure is that Phoenix is right in the thick of it. That's a scary thought, given the huge temptation to overbid for stars. Perhaps there is no price to high to bring in Bron, but what about Wade? What team will offer sick contracts to three stars in excess of $20 million each? How much will Joe Johnson (FA, 2010) get? Bosh? Amar'e?

Then after all the overpayments for the super-super-stars, there will be many sad teams and fans who had waited for summer 2010 with either hope or dread. They will light up the chat boards with their gloating and their grief. And then, there will be a the quality starters and role players who will be getting the minimum salary scraps under the cap and the luxury tax.

There is a chance that all the hullabaloo is just noise, that all of these superstars will listen to offers and elect to remain in place, without altering the NBA teamscape. However, that does not mean there were no real effects of the 2010 sweepstakes. The gross shedding of contracts promises to shift a large number of starters and role players from one team to the next.

The lesson of 2010

Is a team really only 2 or 3 superstars and a large crowd of fungible assets? Yes.

If you look at the teams that are in the 2010 sweepstakes, they are shedding all their personnel to get one or two stars. If you look at the good teams out of the 2010 Free Agent market, likely have a few max players and a crowd of minimum salary players. It's no longer just role players and benchers that are rentals, starters are often rentals as well. The player revolving door continues to accelerate. There is no more team, just nuclei and a crowd of rentals.

A few 2010 Free Agents and those with Player Options - Which ones will get locked up this season in advance?

Name	Type
Emanuel Ginobili	FA
Fabricio Oberto	FA
Joe Johnson	FA
Ray Allen	FA
Richard Hamilton	FA
Shaquille O'Neal	FA
Steve Nash	FA
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	FA
Chris Bosh	PO
Dirk Nowitzki	PO
Dwyane Wade	PO
Eddy Curry	PO
Joel Przybilla	PO
Kenyon Martin	PO
LeBron James	PO
Michael Redd	PO
Paul Pierce	PO
TJ Ford	PO
Tyson Chandler	PO
Vladimir Radmanovic	PO
Yao Ming	PO
Amare Stoudemire	PO

Welcome Ben Wallace!

ZonaFlash — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 06:06:21 -0000

Don't Blame GM Steve Kerr this summer, there's a new GM in town

ZonaFlash — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 19:20:53 -0000

For the next few weeks, there's a new GM in town. GM Steve Nash is now calling the shots. The now undisputed linchpin to the Suns success in the new millennium has usurped organizational power by his wait-and-see approach to signing an extension.

Much discussion has raged about whether GM-in-name Steve Kerr is going to blow up the team. He does have that option. However, he doesn't necessarily have the option to save the team. That option rests with GM Steve Nash and is completely predicated on how GM Steve (Nash) feels about the off-season moves.

While obviously the team holds an option to force Nash to stay for the next year, Nash retains the option on whether or not to sign an extension. Without an extension, Nash could walk at the end of the season for nothing, forcing a trade now.

Even with the best intentions, bettering the team according to GM Steve Nash's preferences may fail, and the rebuilding will ensue anyway. The luxury that GM Nash has is that he doesn't have to worry about feasibility, make the trades happen, contend with the backlash to unpopular moves, or even specify what moves to make. He simply says what he wants in general terms, and if it happens, he stays, if not, he rolls.

As long as Nash is in a Suns jersey, the team has a chance to compete. Once he's gone, the team will scramble around in the dark for a couple of years, looking for a new alchemy of winning. Don't hold your breath.

This is not a criticism of GM Steve Nash's moves nor of GM Steve Kerr's moves. Nash's view is legitimate and taken by many aging stars (including the Black Mamba). Instead, this is just a reminder that while GM Steve Kerr is still responsible for the off-season moves, he is answering to a higher power, and the choice to rebuild is not entirely his.

Phoenix was down 97-95 and had the ball for what looked to be a breakaway layup, but Jason...

ZonaFlash — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 18:32:18 -0000

Phoenix was down 97-95 and had the ball for what looked to be a breakaway layup, but Jason Richardson decided to go for a 360-degree spin dunk. James raced from far behind and soared to block the attempt.

JRich, $12MM/year dunk champion hurts me again.

Scientists confirm, Planet Orange headed for the Blues

ZonaFlash — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 09:39:04 -0000

Scientists confirm the obvious.

Planet Orange is headed for the Blues, as Bob Young forecast 10 days ago. Researchers at ASU's famous Physics and Astronomy Department provide the above computer simulation. A more sophistcated 4 MB simulation can be seen not here.

...it's worth noting that popular players drowning in love feel it, feed off of it, and reflect it...

ZonaFlash — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 06:12:24 -0000

...it's worth noting that popular players drowning in love feel it, feed off of it, and reflect it in their play. The concern isn't over why the public can't see them for who they are... it's about getting back to that place where they felt best and played like it. That's got everything to do with a version of themselves that has everything to do with perception, or consulting an expert on attitudes in the stands... if you want to understand why blogs matter, it's because—no matter how crappy they're treated by the league—fans matter like never before.

FreeDarko - Blame the Blogs