SB Nation Blog: Zonis

Diamond Mind

Zonis — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 23:00:46 -0000

No, not a projection, but it is Rosterbation. The question is; what should the A's do right now as regard to the team. We are currently enthralled in a battle with the Angels, 3.5 games back. Both teams have good pitching, both teams have bad hitting, but the Angels offense has been better than ours and that has been the difference in the standings.

It is obvious that we need to improve the lineup, and who knows when Frank Thomas will come back, or if he will need to be rehabbed in Sacramento for a time before then. The A's appear to have a sizable chunk of change available due to the huge drop in payroll, but at the same time, that money appears to have been earmarked for draft picks and international free agents, as seen by the expected signing of Inoa for $4.25 million.

Likewise, if we do make a deal and trade for offense, we will have to sacrafice something in return, being either money, prospects or both. And the question is if we can have a good enough offense this year, if the pitching can continue to be stellar, can we make the playoffs and win the World Series this year, and would it be worth partially scrapping or hurting the reubuilding project by doing so?

As I see it, there are four sides in this discussion.

1) Improve the Team - The A's need offense like Cher needs Hair. If we make the trades nessisary and bring in poeple like Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Brian Giles, Aubrey Huff, ect... the offense immidietly improves and we become a force to be reconed with.

2) Continue Building - This year was supposed to be a rebuilding year anyways, and we should not hinder that. We might be doing good, but its smoke and mirrors. We should deal away our overvallued/temporarly healthy talent and convert Duchscherer and Harden into massive prospect deals that will make 2010 and beyond look like the 1970's.

3) Improve but Not Prospects - Improve the team yes, make the trades that will bring in talent but only at a cost of money or low grade prospects, and not any of our core prospects in the minors that figure to be a key part of our future. After all, Duke, Harden and Blanton won't be here anymore by 2010 will they? Who takes over the rest of the rotation? And we already have enough problems on offense.

4) Improve but Not Money - The team is currently using that money to get those draft picks and international free agents that they need. Save that money for the Inoas, Hunters, Smoaks, and Leons of the world instead of wasting millions on Brian Giles. Make trades, but only if they help for the future and don't cost a lot of money, even if it means dealing some of our excess prospect depth at positions of stregnth.

So what do we do folks? Who do we target. As I said above, I think Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Brian Giles and Aubrey Huff would be nice acquisitions, especially Jason Bay, as he is cheap and plays all three outfield positions if needed. Acquiring two of them, a 1B and an OF would instantly help us for the future. If Cleveland is going to tear it up, could we grab Grady Sizemore? Do we want Adrian Beltre if the Mariners are willing? Do we pay the price for Halliday from Colorado? Do we want Jack Cust's younger brother, Adam Dunn?

Because remember that right now, the A's are near or at the bottom of baseball on the offensive side of things. If that doesn't change, it won't matter what the pitching side does.

Dodgers beat Angels 1-0, get no hit!?

Zonis — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 04:49:49 -0000

In one of the more bizzare occurances this year, the LA Dodgers defeated the Angels 1-0, winning the game on a Sac Fly. The thing is, the Angels no hit the Dodgers through 8 innings on the backs of Jared Weaver (6 IP) and Jose Arredondo (2 IP).

Freaky.

This comes on the same night that we lose to the Giants 1-0 despite 2 hitting them.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2008_06_28_anamlb_lanmlb_1

Chad Billingsley shut out the Angels for seven innings as the Dodgers won 1-0 despite getting no-hit on Saturday night.
Only in Los Angeles. The Dodgers manufactured a run in the fifth after Matt Kemp's dribbler was mishandled by Jered Weaver. Kemp stole second and went to third after Jeff Mathis threw the ball into center field. He then scored on a sac fly from Blake DeWitt. Jonathan Broxton and Takashi Saito finished up the five-hitter for the Dodgers. Billingsley has won three in a row and is 7-7 with a 3.38 ERA.

Trading Post

Zonis — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 00:28:36 -0000

As we all know, the A's are in a parculiar position. They are 5.0 games behind the Angels in the West and 3.0 Games behind Tampa bay in the Wild Card, with the Angels looking for an easy win today (8-2 right now against the Nats). The A's are 41-34 with a .547 Win %, yet a 44-31 Pythag Record based on Run Differential.

This year was supposed t be a rebuilding year, yet the A's find themselves within striking distance, at least for the Wild Card. The rotation has been very strong, but the offense has been a dissapointment. The Rookies have not hit, the Veterans have struggled, and the good hitters have hit the DL.

But the A's could contend. The question is how many more bats are they away from having a chance to win every game, and not alternate shutouts and blowouts? Frank Thomas should be back in July, Ryan Sweeney has come out and started to hit and could take over CF with Cust staying in Left Field, which means that a Corner Outfield spot could be open if Patrol Craft was sent down. Daric Barton's struggles at first base could mean we could demote him back to AAA and acquire a slugging 1B. There is always the possibility that we could replace Mark Ellis with a better hitting 2B such as Polanco or Roberts, but suffer defensivly. Bobby Crosby could be replaced, though it does not appear there are any decent SS's available to my knowledge.

So we could go out and grab a good hitting 1B and RF, and instantly the lineup would improve and could even become quite a good one. But to acquire those guys would require dealing prospects, and we just dealt Dan Haren and Nick Swisher to get those prospects in order to rebuild.

On the flip side of the coin, the A's pitching performances could net the the team a bounty in prospects in the coming month till the trading deadline. Justin Duchscherer and Rich Harden are both healthy and dominant, with a year left on their contacts. Joe Blanton is struggling, and we'd have to hope he would have a great month, get his ERA under 4.00 and up his value. Eveland and Smith might even be prime candidates to deal if the A's believe that this is their peak value they'll have, and we always have a replacement starter in Chad Gaudin to step in if one is dealt.

But our AAA options are limited, with Gio Gonzalez struggling a lot, and our best pitching prospects in Double A or lower, with no signs of being MLB Ready any time soon. Simmons is coming off injury, Cahill and Anderson were just promoted and Henry Rodriguez failed in his first try in Midland.

But, if this is a rebuilding year, and we are firm with that and recognize it for what it was, with so many teams desperate for pitching, it is time time to strike. So what can we get for our starters and relievers, of which we have so many stockpiled?

As for offensive trade targets, there are several out there;

OF Jason Bay PIT (my pick)
OF Matt Holliday COL
1B Mark Teixiera ATL (very expensive pickup, most likely)
1B/OF Adam Dunn CIN (An expensive Jack Cust)
1B Aubrey Huff BAL
?? Matt LaPorta MIL
OF Xavier Nady PIT

Who else is out there?

DLD 6/23 - I Can See Clearly Now, The Rain is OUCH

Zonis — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:55:34 -0000

Friday, the A's defeated the Florida Marlins in extra innings. My father and I had tickets to the game, and were ready to go, with one hitch: as many of you guys know, last season I won Free LASIK Surgery done by Dr. Gary Kawesch. So I went in, took 15mg of Valium, and almost took 5mg more because it did not kick in at all for a good twenty minutes at least. After all the tests and Valium, they sent me into the room to get the machine, and what happens? The Machine, after getting set up, breaks down. This all unbeknownst to me, as I am laying somewhat dizzy on the chairtable practicing keeping my eyes open longer than 10 seconds with out blinking, unsuccessfully, while trying not to be nervous. Unfortunately, whenever someone puts anything near my eyes, no matter how ready I am for it, I flinch like hell, Valium or not.

So they walk me over to the next room where the machine works, and after much struggling on my part (unintentional, mind you, but I was not really the perfect calm patient for this procedure), the deed a done.

The problem? With all the Valium in my system, all I could do was keep my eyes close and lay in the front seat of the car for the hour trip back to Albany, to which I immediately was led to a bed, put on my goggles, and fell asleep w/o even listening to the game.

I woke up the next day, drove down to San Jose again with my father (an optometrist, so that's a plus), and got my post-op checkup. And the result? Apparently I have now somewhere between 20/15 and 20/20 eyesight!

Now, the $4000 LASIK procedure was covered, but I ended up having to pay $800 ($400 per eye) for Intralase because the doctor said I had steep corneas (when he said the number, even my dad said "WoW!") so it was apparently much easier/safer to use this method than the normal scalpel method (which looking back, might have been even worse considering my inability to stay completely still and keep my eyes perfectly relaxed and open on the table while things and lasers were being stuck in my eyes).

The overall experience was good, and the result is awesome. The staff is very friendly and helpful. The only thing that could be improved upon would be for the doctor to hide a bit better (and he did hide it, but it somewhat leaked out) the frustration of having such a bad patient such as I when on the table, and that he didn't know much about the financial side of the operation (though maybe that's a good thing-that he's focused on the side he's supposed to be on instead of the money, so that might be a plus instead).

But hey, its been only a few days, so we will see how things work out, ne?

Upon leaving the clinic, I received a pair of effective enough sunglasses, and three eye drops which I have to use four times a day each. But I also received two Gift Certificates for $200 off a LASIK Procedure ($100 per eye) that expire 9/30/08.

Well, it happens that I do not really know anyone who both a) is interested in getting LASIK and b) actually has the money to do so (I know a couple who fit a, but not b).

So if anyone on AN is interested in getting LASIK, they can have one of the gift certificates if they want.

Now for Baseball News;
The A's finished the series against the Florida Marlins Sunday, taking two of three with a whomping of the Marlins, 7-1. Geren and Ellis were ejected during the game, and Daric Barton came into replace Ellis, with Murphy going to 2nd and Hannahan to Third, despite a Sore Hamstring.

MLB Trade Rumors reveals a new layout, and Ken Rosenthal speculates that the A's might be buyers at the trade deadline, with Matt Hollday and Jason Bay as possibilities, and even speculation on jumping in on the CC Sabathia deal, possibly as a third team, though who knows if we'd get CC or Not (I'd wager not, but CC is a huge A's fan and a Bay Area native). Rotoworld reveals the much awaited promotion of Jesus Guzman to Triple A Sacramento. Could he be replacing Ellis in 2009?

And in Sad News, one of my favorite Comedians, George Carlin, died Sunday due to Heart Failure at the age of 71.

Keep Ellis or Not?

Zonis — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 19:57:35 -0000

John Shea has an article today about Mark Ellis , to which Ellis pointedly says that he would like to stay in Oakland instead of testing Free Agency.

Despite Ellis' first free-agent opportunity, he'd prefer to sign a multiyear extension this summer rather than test the possibly lucrative open market. He already had talks with general manager Billy Beane and came away believing a negotiation between Beane and agent James Murphy would begin now that the draft is over.

"I would think if something got done, it would be before the season's over," Ellis said. "I'm not saying (free agency) wouldn't be fun to do, but I'm happy here. The organization has been good to me, and it's an organization (in which) you always have a chance to win.

"You never know what's out there (on the open market). You don't know if everyone will like you or if nobody will like you."

Ellis will be 32 next year, and is still one of the elite defensive second baseman in the game. The question will be if Ellis will be worth keeping around for another two or three years. Middle Infielders have a tendancy to sharply decline after they get to the wrong side of thirty, sometimes with out much warning. And while Ellis is still a defensive wiz, like the rest of the offense, he is tanking at the plate.

So the question becomes; who is the real Ellis?

Mark Ellis' batting line by season:
2002: .272/ .359/ .394/. 753
2003: .248/ .313/ .371/. 684
2004: Bobby Crosby
2005: .316/ .384/ .477/. 861
2006: .249/ .319/ .385/. 704
2007: .276/ .336/ .441/. 777
2008: .232/.322/.374/.696
Career: .268/.338/.411/.749

Ellis' competition for next year will be our three non-prospect prospects in the minors. Cliff Pennington, Gregorio Petit and Jesus Guzman.

Pennington was drafted as a good hitting, great fielding Short Stop who proceded to bomb in the A's minor league system. I have no idea how he is doing defensivly, as I've heard conflicting reports on him all the time. One thing we know, he can't hit.

Gregorio Petit has had a reputation in the A's minors as an awesome fielding Short Stop. He is a so-so hitting to poor hitting Short Stop who can hit for average, might get on base, but will not have any power. He's already on the A's 40 man roster.

Jesus Guzman was a Minor League Free Agent after leaving the Seattle Mariners organization. Placed in Double A Midland, he took off and has continued to scorch AA pitching. He still has a mid 900's OPS and is hitting .355, and is due for a promotion at any time. If Guzman is given a promotion to Triple A mid season, he could be ready for 2009 and could take over the A's 2nd base job if he continues ho hit as he has in AAA.

Ellis's main competition for the 2B job, Kevin Melillo, was sold to Toronto a few days ago.

So AN, in your unbiased opinion, should we keep MaEl or not?

Weekday Day Games - Should The A's Continue Them?

Zonis — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 03:24:12 -0000

One thing the A's usually do to help opposing teams is The Getaway Day. On the last game of a series, they will have the game take place at either 12:05 or 1:05 PM during the day. This does not have much of an effect on attendance on Sunday weekend games, but quite a few of these games end up being on Wednesdays and Thursdays.

The problem is that that these games usually draw very few fans, and those who do come are usually enticed by $2 tickets. So the question is; should the A's limit these games, or do away with them entirely? Should they keep the essence of getaway days (starting the game earlier than normal to allow teams to leave quickly for their next game) but still have the game later to increase attendance, say maybe at 5:00 PM?

Because the simple fact is that as things stand, the A's would do much, much better if they got that attendance boost from an extra weekday night game rather than a day game where no one goes.

DLD 6-5-8 - Draft Day and Dad

Zonis — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 17:07:20 -0000

Just a little bit till the 2008 First Year Player Draft begins, and the first pick has already been made. Lets just hope that the Devil Rays don't draw it out and take the entire time to announce it.

The St. Petersburg Times reports that the Rays will take high school SS Tim Beckham with the No. 1 pick in Thursday's draft.
Perhaps because of Dioner Navarro's strong showing this year, lessening the need for a catcher in Buster Posey, the Rays will apparently go with the Beckham, a five-tool player who is said to have plenty of baseball smarts and superstar upside. It might also have something to do with Posey supposedly floating $12 million as his asking price.

Meanwhile, Dad was released by the Cinci Reds.

Reds released first baseman Scott Hatteberg.
Designated for assignment last week to make room on the roster for Jay Bruce, Hatteberg would be a good fit as a platoon starter or bench bat on a number of teams. The Mariners were said to be interested a few days ago and could partner him with Richie Sexson at first base.

Could he join the Mariners, probably. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Just don't bring him back, Billy =/

Who the A's will take is up for speculation , but there are some notes of interest.

• A's minor league pitcher Fautino De Los Santos probably faces nine to 12 months of rehabilitation after undergoing elbow-ligament-replacement surgery last week, Forst said.

De Los Santos, a right-hander acquired in the trade that sent Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox, is considered one of the A's top prospects. Forst stressed De Los Santos had no history of elbow problems with Chicago.

"He pitched (April 24) and was throwing 96 (mph), and then he went out to throw his side and couldn't pick up his arm, so it was pretty sudden," Forst said.

• Third baseman Eric Chavez did not play Wednesday because his legs were a little stiff, but Manager Bob Geren said Chavez's back felt OK after a home-plate collision Tuesday.

Good luck Fautino, see ya next year.

Why does Texas keep giving away good pitching?

Zonis — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 02:57:14 -0000

Texas always seems to have no pitching what so ever. Its like a curse for them. So then why do they insist on giving away good pitchers?

In recent years, they've traded away;

To SD: Chris Young (and Adrian Gonzalez)
To CIN: Edison Volquez
To OAK: Justin Duchscherer
To CWS: John Danks
To DET: Armando Galarraga

That would be one hell of a rotation, and those are all players that Texas has traded away in recent years. The only one to which they got a good deal on thus far was the Volquez trade, which netted MVP candidate Josh Hamilton.

The Galarraga trade netted Michael Hernandez, who was subsequently released. Duchscherer netted ultimatley Jesus Pena, who did nothing for the Rangers. Danks was traded for Brandon McCarthy, who's proceded to sit on the DL inbetween bad starts.

And Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez and The Sledge were traded for Adam Eaton, who did exactly what everyone in baseball knew he would do-suck hard then get injured.

So what is it with Texas' curse with pitching?

The ReAc Theory

Zonis — Sat, 31 May 2008 22:50:46 -0000

This is a theory that I have always held some belief in, ever since I read it when it came out. Unfortunetly, due to the wonders of the internet, the page no longer exists. But, thanks to Web Archive, I managed to find the page again! (If anyone would be willing to make it into a PDF, I'd appriciate it).

The A's though do not seem to hold true to the ReAc Theory, though I believe it deserves some creedence. After all, they signed Frank Thomas after he was released by the BlueJays. During the off season, they signed former A's Keith Foulke, Emil Brown and Kirk Saarloos. But I think it still is worth taking a look at The Reac Theory.

- Zonis

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The ReAc Theory

Introduction

Before making another trade, signing another free agent, or hiring another head coach or manager, MLB, NBA, NFL, and NHL teams should heed the Reacquisition Theory. A failure to do so has already brought about negative consequences.

Rafael Palmeiro tested positive for steroids. Kenny Rogers assaulted a cameraman. Sidney Ponson was arrested three times in eight months. Juan Gonzalez suffered a season-ending injury in his first at bat of his first game of the season. And Jose Lima had "The Worst Season In The History Of Pitching."

The examples above have at least two things in common. Each occurred during a player's second or third stint with a particular team and each supports the Reacquisition Theory.

This article (1) defines the theory, (2) discusses why age does not explain why reacquisitions tend to disappoint, (3) proposes explanations for the theory, (4) presents certain examples supporting the theory, (5) provides certain notable exceptions to the theory, (6) concludes that teams should avoid reacquisitions, and (7) acknowledges Jeffrey Austin Brill's contributions to this article.

I. The Reacquisition Theory Defined

The Reacquisition Theory: Reacks tend to disappoint on or off the field.

For purposes of the Reacquisition Theory:

"Reack" is defined as a player, manager, or head coach who was (1) traded, released, let go via free agency, fired, etc. and (2) reacquired by the same MLB, NBA, NFL, or NHL team for the same job. "Same job" is defined as the player returning as player, the manager returning as manager, and the head coach returning as head coach. "Non-reack" is defined as a player, manager, or head coach who is not a reack.

"Tend" is defined as having an inclination to do something more often than not.

"Disappoint on the field" is defined as a substantial failure by a reack to satisfy the reacquiring team's expectations, taking into account the reack's age, health, salary, experience, projected role, etc. at the time of reacquisition.

"Disappoint off the field" is defined as any conduct, comment, or other action by a reack that embarrasses, humiliates, or disgraces the reacquiring team.

"On the field" is defined as (1) a player's MLB, NBA, NFL, or NHL regular season and postseason statistics and his ability to avoid significant injuries, ailments, demotions, etc. and (2) a head coach's or manager's regular season and postseason record.

"Off the field" is defined as a reack's comments, conduct, and behavior away from the field during the season and the off-season.

"Field" is defined as a baseball field, basketball court, football field, hockey rink, etc.

"On the Field" And/Or "Off the Field": A reack who disappoints in either of the two categories satisfies, and cannot be an exception to, the Reacquisition Theory. Therefore, a reack who does not disappoint off the field can satisfy the theory, by disappointing on the field. See, e.g., Jim Abbott in IV. Reacks below. And a reack who does not disappoint on the field can satisfy the theory, by disappointing off the field. See, e.g., Kenny Rogers in IV. Reacks below.

II. Why Age Does Not Explain Disappointment

"Young" reacks, such as, Jim Abbott, Rafer Alston, Mark Blount, Roger Cedeño, Todd MacCulloch, Antonio McDyess, Sidney Ponson, Ruben Rivera, James Thrash, Ismael Valdez, among others, have disappointed. And "old" reacks, such as, Doyle Alexander, Brian Anderson, Jose Canseco, Cliff Floyd, Mike Jackson, Jose Lima, Tom Seaver, and Jeff Suppan, among others, have had post-reack success.

Age and On the Field Disappointment

A player is always older during his second stint with a team than he was during his first stint. But advanced age does not explain a reack's on the field disappointment, because the Reacquisition Theory does not hold reacks to a higher standard than non-reacks.

"Disappoint on the field" is defined in I. The Reacquisition Theory Defined above as "a substantial failure by a reack to satisfy the reacquiring team's expectations, taking into account the reack's age, health, salary, experience, projected role, etc. at the time of reacquisition."

Because of long-term contracts, "bidding wars," and teams' unwillingness to part with young players, reacquiring a player in his prime is often difficult. Therefore, the pool of prospective reacks consists mostly of players past their respective primes.

When evaluating whether to acquire or reacquire a player, a reasonable team will take the player's age into account. No reasonable team would expect from a 36-year-old player the same production he was capable of when he was 26. From a 36-year-old first baseman, a reasonable team may expect a W batting average, X home runs, and Y R.B.I. in Z games. Under the Reacquisition Theory, if such 36-year-old first baseman is a reack, he is substantially less likely to achieve W, X, Y, or Z, than if he were a non-reack.

A reasonable team will expect a 33-year-old player's on the field performance to decline X percent when he turns 34. A reasonable team will take into account such anticipated decline, when deciding whether to reacquire such 34-year-old player. If the 34-year-old reack experiences a decline substantially greater than X percent, he satisfies the Reacquisition Theory.

To satisfy the Reacquisition Theory, the disappointment must be unexpected. If the disappointments detailed in IV. Reacks below had been expected, then no reasonable team would have (1) traded valuable assets to make such reacquisition or (2) given playing time, a roster spot, a long-term contract, or millions of dollars to such reacquisition.

Age and Off the Field Disappointment

"Disappoint off the field" is defined in I. The Reacquisition Theory Defined above as "any conduct, comment, or other action by a reack that embarrasses, humiliates, or disgraces the reacquiring team."

Teams expect a player, because he is older, to be more mature and a better role model during his second stint than he was during his first stint. But, as illustrated in Subsections B1, B2, and B3 of III. Why Reacks Tend to Disappoint below, numerous reacks have embarrassed, humiliated, and disgraced their respective teams off the field.

The reacks' supposed maturity probably made the embarrassment, humiliation, and disgrace to the reacquiring teams more disappointing. A 40-year-old reack assaulting a cameraman or testing positive for steroids is probably more disappointing than a 20-year-old reack doing the same.

III. Why Reacks Tend to Disappoint

For misguided reasons, teams often prefer reacks over non-reacks, as discussed in Section A below. Such a preference can cause a team to overlook a reack's age, injuries, diminished skills, recent poor performance, etc. and to overlook the possibility that no other team wants him. But preferring a reack often leads to negative consequences for the reacquiring team, as discussed in Section B below.

A. Why Teams Often Prefer Reacks.

1. Glory Days and Sentimental Reasons.

Glory Days

Teams often make reacquisitions that remind them of the "glory days." Recapturing "the magic of what used to be" becomes more important to a team than obtaining the best available candidate. But teams that are unable or unwilling to let go of the past may struggle in the present and in the future.

If October 26, 1996 was the first night of the Yankee Dynasty, then November 5, 2001 was "The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty." But, rather than work on building a new dynasty, the New York Yankees continue to cling to an expired one.

In October 2002, with the Yankees down 2 games to 1 in the 2002 A.L.D.S., reporters reminded Derek Jeter that the Yankees have overcome similar deficits in the past. "Some of us have," replied Jeter. "But this is a new group," added Jeter.

In May 2003, with the Yankees having lost 12 of 15 games, reporters asked Jeter why the Yankees were slumping. "Everyone wants to compare years past to this year, but it's not the same team as years ago," responded Jeter. "We have different players," added Jeter.

In October 2004, after the Yankees suffered the worst collapse in postseason history, reporters asked Jeter to explain the collapse. "It's not the same team," responded Jeter. "I've said that before," added Jeter.

Jeter's comments suggest that he has less confidence in new teammates than he has in ex-teammates and that a reacquisition is a good solution to any problem the Yankees may be having. The Yankees appear to agree, having reacquired Brian Boehringer, Homer Bush, Orlando Hernandez, Tino Martinez, Ramiro Mendoza, Jeff Nelson, Ruben Rivera, Rey Sanchez, Ruben Sierra, Mike Stanton, Randy Velarde, David Wells, and Gerald Williams, among others, since the Yankees' last World Series Championship.

Whether the players the Yankees reacquired were the best available candidates at the time of reacquisition is a question only the Yankees can answer. But what the Yankees appear to be overlooking is that the Yankees' dynasty was built with (1) homegrown talent, such as, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Bernie Williams, none of whom were reacks, and (2) well-chosen imports, such as, Wade Boggs, Scott Brosius, Jimmy Key, Paul O'Neill, and John Wetteland, none of whom were reacks.

The only reacks to play for the Yankees in the World Series in 1996, 1998, 1999, or 2000 were Charlie Hayes, 3 for 16 in the 1996 World Series, Luis Polonia, 1 for 2 in the 2000 World Series, and Luis Sojo, 2 for 7 in the 2000 World Series.

Sentimental Reasons

Teams often make reacquisitions for sentimental reasons, even if doing so means bypassing a more qualified candidate. A team may reacquire a former star to see him retire or reach a milestone in the team's uniform. Out of loyalty, a team may give a former player, manager, or head coach a chance to resurrect his career. Or, feeling guilty over how the team ended his first stint, a team may reacquire him as a form of apology.

A Reack for the Fans

Teams with a bad roster, small budget, salary cap problems, etc. may also reacquire a former star, hoping that the reack will boost the team's attendance, television ratings, and merchandise sales, etc. and cause the team's fans to overlook the team's deficiencies.

Representative Reacks, "Glory Days and Sentimental Reasons"

See, among others, Kevin Appier, Al Arbour, Vida Blue, Jose Canseco, Pat Hentgen, Chuck Knox, Billy Martin, Fred McGriff, Mark Messier, Scottie Pippen, Tom Seaver, Kevin Stevens, Earl Weaver, and David Wells in IV. Reacks below.

2. Seemingly Easier, Cheaper, and Risk-Free.

To paraphrase Pete Palmer, co-creator of baseball's OPS statistic, teams "tend to pick a strategy that is least likely to fail rather than pick a strategy that is most efficient, [because the] pain of looking bad is worse than the gain of making the best move." Teams often believe that a reack is less likely to fail than a non-reack. And teams know that a reack will often be well-received by the media and the reacquiring team's players, coaches, fans, etc.

Fearful of failure, change, and criticism, teams may consider a reacquisition the safest course of action. And negotiating with a known commodity may seem easier, faster, and cheaper.

A team that is desperate to replace an injured player, fired manager, etc. or fearful of rejection may prefer a prospective reack. Teams expect a reack to be able to contribute more quickly, because he has experience with the team's players, playbook, coaching staff, etc.

A team can appeal to the prospective reack's familiarity with the team's city, players, stadium, front office, etc. The team may also be able to convince the prospective reack to accept a below-market value contract.

Representative Reacks, "Easier, Cheaper, and Risk-Free"

See, among others, Roger Cedeño, Derrick Coleman, Jose Lima, Todd MacCulloch, Jeff Nelson, Sidney Ponson, Kenny Rogers, and Ismael Valdez in IV. Reacks below.

3. Fixing Old Mistakes.

Every team, at one time or another, has given up prematurely on a player, manager, or head coach and then (1) seen him flourish elsewhere or (2) realized that he was more important than the team realized. When the opportunity to reacquire such player, manager, or head coach arises, the team may prefer him over more qualified candidates.

Andy Ashby

The Philadelphia Phillies lost Ashby to the Colorado Rockies in the expansion draft of 1992. The Rockies then traded Ashby to the San Diego Padres in 1993. Ashby's best seasons for the Padres were in 1998 and 1999, when he was a combined 31-19 (.620) with 3.56 E.R.A.

"This is a homecoming for Andy Ashby," said Phillies general manager Ed Wade, after reacquiring Ashby in November 1999. "We let him get by in the expansion draft [of 1992], and obviously it turned out to be a mistake on our part."

Whether Ashby was the Phillies' best available candidate in November 1999 is a question only the Phillies can answer. But the reacquired Ashby was 4-7 (.364) with a 5.68 E.R.A. for the Phillies in 2000, before being traded.

Jeff Nelson

Nelson helped the New York Yankees win 4 World Series Championships from 1996 to 2000. But, after a contract dispute with the Yankees, Nelson signed a free agent contract with the Seattle Mariners in December 2000. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman would later acknowledge that losing Nelson was a mistake.

Whether Nelson was the Yankees' best available candidate, when the Yankees reacquired him in August 2003, is a question only the Yankees can answer. But the reacquired Nelson was in a bullpen brawl with a Fenway Park groundskeeper during Game 3 of the 2003 A.L.C.S. between the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.

Woody Williams

Williams was a combined 30-28 (.517) with a 4.35 E.R.A. for the San Diego Padres until August 2001, when Padres general manager Kevin Towers traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals for Ray Lankford.

Pitching for the Cardinals, Williams was a combined 45-22 (.672) with a 3.68 E.R.A. in the regular season and 3-1 (.750) with a 4.46 E.R.A. in the postseason from 2001 to 2004.

After reacquiring Williams in December 2004, Towers said:

"It's not often as a [general manager] that you can make a mistake and then get an opportunity to bring that mistake back . . . I say the worst trade I ever made was trading Woody Williams. The tough thing was watching him pitch every year in St. Louis, not only beating our tails, but pitching in the postseason, doing great things for them."

Whether Williams was the Padres' best available candidate in December 2004 is a question only the Padres can answer. But the reacquired Williams was 9-12 (.429) with a 4.85 E.R.A. in the regular season and 0-1 (.000) with a 27.00 E.R.A. in the postseason for the Padres in 2005.

Representative Reacks, "Correcting Mistakes From the Past"

See, among others, Rafer Alston, Andy Ashby, Jeromy Burnitz, Alexei Kovalev, Jeff Nelson, Tom Seaver, Antoine Walker, David Wells, and Woody Williams in IV. Reacks below.

B. Why Teams Should Avoid Reacks.

1. The Ex.

Certain sports psychologists have described the relationship between Los Angeles Lakers head coach Phil Jackson and Lakers guard Kobe Bryant as a marriage. The media have compared Larry Brown to a lover who jumps from relationship to relationship. And Tampa Bay Devil Rays manager Lou Piniella once likened the player-manager relationship to a boyfriend-girlfriend relationship. "I'm only dating these guys," said Piniella. "I'm not married to them."

Teams often want to acquire an ex-player, ex-manager, ex-head coach. But the advantages of "re-dating," such as, the comfort and security that comes from a known commodity, are often outweighed by the disadvantages of re-dating.

A player, manager, or head coach may consider a team's decision to reacquire him an admission by the team that it made a mistake during his first stint. Harboring bad feelings over how his first stint ended, the reack may decide, consciously or otherwise, to make the team "pay" for its mistake.

Representative Reacks, "The Ex"

See, among others, Rafer Alston, Jeromy Burnitz, Juan Gonzalez, Alexei Kovalev, Mark Messier, Jeff Nelson, Kenny Rogers, Tom Seaver, Antoine Walker, and David Wells in IV. Reacks below.

2. Old Character Flaws.

A team may sever ties with a player, manager, or head coach, because of his character flaws, such as, immaturity, laziness, a bad temper, etc. The team may then reacquire him in the future thinking that such character flaws have disappeared. But, back in familiar surroundings, the reack's old character flaws may resurface.

Bobby Bonilla

During his first stint with the New York Mets, Bonilla called the Mets press box during a game to complain about an error and, in a separate incident, was videotaped threatening to show a reporter "the Bronx."

During his second stint with the Mets, Bonilla challenged Mets manager Bobby Valentine to a fight and, in a separate incident, played cards in the Mets clubhouse while the Mets were being eliminated from the 1999 N.L.C.S.

Ken Caminiti

Caminiti, third baseman for the Houston Astros, checked into a drug rehabilitation program in 1993 to fight an addiction to alcohol and painkillers. The Astros traded him to the San Diego Padres in 1994.

After returning to the Astros in 1998, Caminiti "return[ed] to the bottle and painkillers," before checking into drug rehabilitation program again in 2000.

Sidney Ponson

Ponson, when he was in the Baltimore Orioles' minor league system, was arrested in 1996 for driving while under the influence. A reacquired Ponson was arrested twice for driving while under the influence, once in January 2005 and once in August 2005.

Kenny Rogers

On May 8, 1994, upset by a story a reporter had written about him, Rogers was videotaped pushing the reporter out of the Texas Rangers' clubhouse. "It was obviously premeditated," said the reporter.

On June 29, 2005, upset by a story a reporter had written about him, a reacquired Rogers was videotaped assaulting a cameraman. "He walked up to me [and] pushed me out of the way," said the cameraman.

Representative Reacks, "Old Character Flaws"

See, among others, Bobby Bonilla, Ken Caminiti, Jose Canseco, Derrick Coleman, Juan Gonzalez, Alexei Kovalev, Billy Martin, Oliver Miller, Jeff Nelson, Sidney Ponson, Kenny Rogers, Roy Tarpley, and David Wells in IV. Reacks below.

3. Distractions.

Teams may expect a reacquired player, manager, or head coach to be a leader and role model, reasoning that he is familiar with what the team wants and expects from its employees. But, instead of being on his best behavior like a new employee, a reack may feel entitled to say and do as he pleases.

Certain reacks have had trouble with the law.

A reacquired Kenny Rogers assaulted a cameraman. A reacquired Chili Davis poked a fan in the face. A reacquired Jeff Nelson was in a bullpen brawl. A reacquired Ruben Rivera stole Derek Jeter's bat and glove. A reacquired Billy Martin had fights with one of his players and a marshmallow salesman. And, as reacks, Roger Cedeño (two times), Derrick Coleman, Ferguson Jenkins, Tony Phillips, and Sidney Ponson (three times) were arrested.

Certain reacks have had problems with drugs.

A reacquired Vida Blue failed a drug test. A reacquired Rafael Palmeiro tested positive for steroids. As reacks, Ken Caminiti and Kevin Stevens checked into drug rehabilitation programs. And, as reacks, Leon Durham, Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Milner, Tony Phillips, and Roy Tarpley received drug suspensions.

Certain reacks have upset team chemistry.

A reacquired Chick Gandil was the "ringleader" of the conspiracy responsible for fixing the 1919 World Series. A reacquired Bobby Bonilla played cards in the clubhouse during the deciding game of the 1999 N.L.C.S. A reacquired Horace Grant was a team "cancer," according to the team's head coach. And a reacquired Rafer Alston threatened to quit.

Certain reacks have been difficult to coach.

A reacquired Rafer Alston was suspended for "conduct detrimental to the team" and was reportedly in a "fist fight" with his head coach. A reacquired Bobby Bonilla challenged his manager to a fight. A reacquired Oliver Miller and his head coach were often "at each other's throats." As reacks, Chris Childs and Sidney Ponson reported to training camp fat and out of shape. And, as reacks, Childs and Oliver Miller were sent to fat camps.

Certain reacks have said the wrong thing at the wrong time.

A reacquired David Wells wrote a controversial, tell-all book. A reacquired Jeff Nelson criticized his team publicly. A reacquired Charles Oakley criticized his head coach publicly. And a reacquired Dan Issel told a Denber Nuggets fan: "Go drink another beer, you Mexican piece of [excrement]."

Certain reacks have been difficult to trade.

As reacks, Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, Sidney Ponson, and Kenny Rogers used no-trade clauses to block trades. And attempts to unload a reacquired Roger Cedeño and a reacquired Ponson failed when other players used no-trade clauses to block trades.

Representative Reacks, "Distractions"

See, among others, Rafer Alston, Vida Blue, Bobby Bonilla, Ken Caminiti, Roger Cedeño, Derrick Coleman, Chili Davis, Leon Durham, Chick Gandil, Horace Grant, Dan Issel, Ferguson Jenkins, Billy Martin, Eddie Milner, Jeff Nelson, Charles Oakley, Rafael Palmeiro, Tony Phillips, Sidney Ponson, Ruben Rivera, Kenny Rogers, Kevin Stevens, Roy Tarpley, and David Wells in IV. Reacks below.

4. Lacking Motivation.

A team may expect a player, manager, or head coach to have, during his second stint, the same motivation that he had during his first stint with the team. The team will probably be less demanding of a reack, reasoning that he has already proven himself. The reack may then become complacent. Without motivation or a demanding employer, the reack might as well be semi-retired.

Antonio Freeman

Freeman combined with Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre for 57 touchdowns, two NFC Championships, and one Super Bowl from 1996 to 2001.

After the 2001 season, the Packers asked Freeman to take a pay cut. But Freeman balked. When asked whether the Packers' Super Bowl potential could convince him to accept a pay-cut, Freeman responded: "I don't know, but I've been there. I've done that. So it's no problem for me to step away."

If Freeman felt that he "been there" and "done that" during his first stint, he probably had less motivation during his second stint with the Packers. The reacquired Freeman had 14 receptions and zero touchdowns in 15 games for the Packers in 2003, his final NFL season.

Mark Messier

After leading the New York Rangers to the franchise's first Stanley Cup in 54 years during his first stint, Messier was probably less motivated during his "encore" performance with the Rangers. The Rangers did not make the playoffs in any of the reacquired Messier's four seasons.

Scottie Pippen

After winning 6 NBA Titles and becoming one of "the top 50 players" during his first stint with the Chicago Bulls, Pippen was probably less motivated during his second stint. After often complaining during his first stint with the Bulls that he was underpaid, Pippen was probably less motivated to rehabilitate his injuries. The Bulls did not make the playoffs with the reacquired Pippen and he retired one year into his two-year contract, collecting $10 million in salary for 23 games played.

Representative Reacks, "Been There, Done That"

See, among others, Jose Canseco, Antonio Freeman, Juan Gonzalez, Al Leiter, Mark Messier, Scottie Pippen, and Tom Seaver in IV. Reacks below.

5. Bad Luck.

As discussed in Section A above, a team's reasons for making a reacquisition are often misguided. To paraphrase Branch Rickey, a baseball pioneer, if "good luck is the residue of a well-conceived design," then perhaps bad luck is the "residue" of an ill-conceived design.

Prone to Significant Injuries

Certain reacks have had bad luck with injuries, sometimes soon after becoming a reack.

A reacquired Paul Byrd suffered a season-ending injury in the first inning of his first spring training game as a reack. A reacquired Hugh Douglas tore his rotator cuff in his first game as a reack. A reacquired Doug Gilmour suffered a career-ending injury in his first game as a reack. A reacquired Juan Gonzalez suffered a season-ending injury in his first at bat in his first game as a reack. A reacquired Mike Jackson suffered a season-ending injury warming up for his first game as a reack. And a reacquired Doc Powers crashed into a wall chasing a pop-up in the first game of the season and died two weeks later, becoming the first player in MLB history to die from a game-related injury.

Other reacks have suffered significant injuries.

As reacks, Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier (twice), Brett Butler, Jose Canseco, David Cone, Sherman Douglas, Juan Gonzalez, Sterling Hitchcock, Dean McAmmond, Randy Myers, Bernie Parent, Tony Phillips, Scottie Pippen, Doc Powers, Kenny Rogers, Rey Sanchez, Gabe White, and Roland Williams have suffered season-ending or career-ending injuries. And, as reacks, Doyle Alexander, Ellis Burks, Vlade Divac, Voshon Lenard, Antonio McDyess, Natrone Means, Don Reid, Rick Tocchet, and David Segui (four times) have missed a substantial portion of a season due to injuries.

Bad Luck On the Field

Certain reacks have had bad luck on the field, often being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

A reacquired Hank Gowdy became a World Series "goat," after getting his foot stuck in his mask attempting to catch an "easy" foul ball pop-up. A reacquired Ralph Terry became a World Series "goat," after giving up Bill Mazeroski's series-winning, walk-off home run. And a reacquired Brian Anderson led MLB in unearned runs allowed.

Bad Luck Off the Field

Certain reacks have had bad luck off the field.

A reacquired Urban Shocker developed heart disease during the season and died less than a year later. A reacquired Brett Butler was diagnosed with throat cancer. A reacquired Todd MacCulloch was diagnosed with Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease, a rare genetic disorder. A reacquired Gabe White had a "mysterious infection . . . [run] all the way up his [pitching] arm." A reacquired Doyle Alexander missed two months of the season after punching a dugout wall. And a reacquired Dean McAmmond was banned from 13 games because of a clerical error.

Representative Reacks, "Bad Luck"

See, among others, Roberto Alomar, Brian Anderson, Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Brett Butler, Jose Canseco, David Cone, Vlade Divac, Sherman Douglas, Doug Gilmour, Juan Gonzalez, Hank Gowdy, Sterling Hitchcock, Mike Jackson, Voshon Lenard, Todd MacCulloch, Dean McAmmond, Antonio McDyess, Randy Myers, Bernie Parent, Tony Phillips, Doc Powers, Don Reid, Kenny Rogers, Rey Sanchez, Urban Shocker, Ralph Terry, Rick Tocchet, and Roland Williams in IV. Reacks below.

C. Post-Reack Success.

The discussions in Sections A and B above regarding why teams often prefer reacks and why teams should avoid reacks can explain the post-reack improvement in performance of Doyle Alexander, Brian Anderson, Jose Canseco, and Jose Lima, among others. When each player joined a new team, each became a non-reack.

From Reack to Non-Reack

The "glory days," sentimental reasons, and a desire to correct a past mistake are usually not factors in a team's decision to acquire a non-reack. The team acquires a non-reack often because he is the best available candidate. And a well-managed team will invest time, money, and effort on an unknown commodity only if the team thinks the risk is worthwhile.

In obtaining the non-reack for the right reasons, the team improves his chances for success. A desire to prove that his ex-team made a mistake by letting him go, along with a desire to impress his new team, may motivate the non-reack to succeed. In unfamiliar surroundings, the non-reack may develop new good habits instead of reverting back to old bad habits. Motivated, practicing good habits, and chosen by his team for the right reasons, the non-reack's performance and luck are likely to benefit.

Representative Reacks, "A Change of Scenery"

See, among others, Doyle Alexander, Brian Anderson, Jose Canseco, Cliff Floyd, Mike Jackson, Jose Lima, Tom Seaver, and Jeff Suppan in IV. Reacks below.

Rosterbation - Smoke Signal

Zonis — Sat, 31 May 2008 05:48:14 -0000

So the Rumor became true, and Travis Buck, Carlos Gonzalez, Kiko Calero and Brad Ziegler were indeed called up. In turn, Ryan Sweeney, Mike Sweeney and Joey Devine were added to the scrap pile that is known as the Oakland A's Disabled List. Lenny DiNardo and Kevin Melillo were Designated For Assignment, giving the A's 10 days to trade them. Since both DiNardo and Melillo figure to be claimed on waivers, such a trade is almost guaranteed. And do not understimate the power of the DFA/Waiver system. Remember that we acquired Chad Gaudin and Marco Scutaro this way as well.

In the minors, known moves made include the promotions of Cliff Pennington, Mike Massaro and Danny Putnam to Triple A Sacramento, and the activation of Richie Robnett from the Minor League Disabled List and assignment to Sacramento, giving the Rivercats an entirely new outfield.

Looking at our Disabled List with fresh eyes, the A's have quite a bit of work ahead of them. The flurry of moves made right now could very well happen again once the bodies return.

Andrew Brown and Donnie Murphy should be back to the team soon. While there has been little information on Murphy, unless it is a more serious injury than the A's are letting on (currently noted as Elbow Soreness), Murphy should be back next week. Andrew Brown has already begun throwing after his appendectomy and if everything heals alright for Brown, he could rejoin the team soon as well.

Frank Thomas is a case where we really do not know how long he could be out, as he has stated himself that the injury he suffered is a concern for a man his size. But I remember when the injury occurred that he could theoretically return after his 15 days are up.

Granted we are going on the sketchy, often unreliable statements released by the A's, looking at even the current moves to the Disabled List made by the A's today, it could be very possible that each will miss only the minimum amount of time necessary and come back, with the one with the most concern for an extended stay on the DL being Devine, as is the case with all pitchers with arm injuries. Casilla, again if reports are to be believed, is about a month away from returning.

So the question is; what do we do when all these players return from the Disabled List, in say three weeks? What do we do when we all of a sudden get Ryan Sweeney, Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas, Gregorio Petit, Joey Devine, Andrew Brown and Donnie Murphy back from the DL? Who goes down? Who stays up? Who goes away for good?

C1 Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
3B Eric Chavez
SS Bobby Crosby
LF Jack Cust
RF Travis Buck
CF Carlos Gonzalez
DH Frank Thomas
C2 Rob Bowen
CF Ryan Sweeney
3B Jack Hannahan
SS Donnie Murphy
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Dana Eveland
SP Greg Smith
RP Huston Street
RP Andrew Brown
RP Joey Devine
SP Chad Gaudin
RP Alan Embree
RP Keith Foulke
RP Kiko Calero

Designated For Assignment:
DH Mike Sweeney
CF Rajai Davis
OF Emil Brown

Optioned to Sacramento:
RP Brad Ziegler
SP Dallas Braden
SS Gregorio Petit

I guess it depends on how Ziggy does, but with Calero under MLB contract, and Foulke likely to be lost if we attempt to send him down, its unknown if Ziggy could stick. Then again, if he a) pitches well and/or b) Brown or Devine do not come back soon, he could stick for longer.

Forgot Chad Gaudin for some reason, so back with a 7 Man Bullpen, and 2 backup infielders for the bench.

My guess is this, but what is yours?