I have been out for a couple of days, so I appologize if this is old news, but Whitey Herzog just missed being elected to the Hall of Fame via committee.  On a brighter note, Billy Southworth made it. Here is the link to the press release.  Complete results are as follows:

Managers/Umpires:
*Billy Southworth (81.3%)
*Dick Williams (81.3%)
Doug Harvey (68.8%)
Whitey Herzog (68.8%)
Danny Murtaugh (37.5%)
Hank O'Day (25%)
Davey Johnson, Billy Martin, Gene Mauch and Cy Rigler (<3 votes)

Executives/Pioneers:
*Barney Dreyfuss (83%)
*Bowie Kuhn (83%)
*Walter O'Malley (75%)
Ewing Kauffman (41.7%)
John Fetzer (33.3%)
Bob Howsam (25%)
Marvin Miller (25%)
Buzzie Bavasi, John McHale and Gabe Paul (<3 votes)

Just curious what everybody thinks of the White Rat.  Will he be elected?  Should he?

I was just thinking of ways the Cardinals could make the last few games fun.  I thought that it might be cool for Aaron Miles to become the first Cardinal since Jose Oquendo to play every position.  Since he has already pitched this year, he'd need to play center, right, first and catch.  That arm would be painful to watch in the outfield or at catcher and he'd make a pretty small target at first, but at least we'd be saved from watching him throw a ball to first.

Then I got to thinking about who else might be able to match Oquendo's feat, when it occurred to me that a Cardinal could "break Oquendo's record" by playing 10 positions.  Scott Spezio this year has played: P, 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF and DH.  If Tony would let him play short, catcher and center for an inning, he'll play "all 10" positions this year.

Some other ideas:
Use Reyes as a closer, just to "teach him situational pitching."
Let Kip Wells (.327BA) play a game in left or right field.

Anyone have any thoughts or any more ideas on how the Cardinals could spice things up for a few games in Pitsburgh?

Continue reading this post »

LB's all-time Cardinal tourney got me thinking about the best season any player has had in Cardinals history.  The organization has its share of great seasons, but which season was the best in the Teams history?  Anyway, I thought it would be fun to discuss which the best is.  I compiled a list of some of the best seasons I knew of using the following criteria:

1.  I searched through all seasons franchise history, including those posted in the American Association (1883-1891).  I even found one other St Louis seasons worth mention.
   
2.  No more than one season is listed for any one player.  This isn't a problem on most any player except Hornsby.  Any of three seasons could be considered his best and it didn't make sense to take so many voting slots with one player.
   
3.  I paid attention to players that are remembered primarily for their years in a St. Louis uniform and had their best years in St. Louis.  Again this is a matter of practicality to narrow the field.  
   
4.  I thought of MVPs and Cy Young as automatic nominees, but there are simply too many to properly list.  Besides, is it even debatable whether any of Frank Frisch`s season are comparable to any of Rogers Hornsby three best years?
   

Continue reading this post »

This is the first in a series of diaries about Hall of Fame Veteran's Committee Candidates.  In this diary I'd like to get everyone's opinion on   art four in a hall of fame diary series that examines the hall-worthiness of some of the candidates for 2007.  You can follow these links to get to the other diaries:
Bert Blyleven

Jack Morris

Andre Dawson, Dave Parker and Jim Rice.

For reference, entire ballot can be seen here.  Results of the ballot will be announced February 27th.  If there is time and interest, I'd like to post diaries on the nominees that have a St Louis connection: Ken Boyer, August Busch Jr, Curt Flood, Whitey Herzog, Jim Kaat, Marty Marion, and Joe Torre.

Continue reading this post »

Jeff Passan ay Yahoo has an interesting commentary on Walt Jocketty:  

"The candidates for the final four spots of the reigning world champion's pitching rotation include a 32-year-old who hasn't started a game since he pitched in Class A 10 years ago, a free-agent acquisition who once tested positive for steroids, a prospect who spent all of last season in the bullpen, a long reliever with a face suited for Gerber jars, a fashion plate for those who prefer their hats flat-billed and a guy named Kip...

...Such confidence is borne of more than 20 years spent consulting one another. La Russa, Duncan and Jocketty built a championship team with the Oakland Athletics in 1989. And after 100-plus-victory seasons in 2004 and '05, now they have one in St. Louis, too.  Following that with another World Series will depend on Looper, Franklin, Wainwright, Thompson, Reyes or Wells.  Gosh? Maybe somewhere else. This is St. Louis. They're used to making their own luck."

Is he sacrastic about how "lucky" the Walt and the Birds have been, or is he saying that the Cardinals '06 sucess wasn't the residue of design?  

This is part four in a hall of fame diary series that examines the hall-worthiness of some of the candidates for 2007.  You can follow these links to get to the other diaries:
Bert Blyleven
Jack Morris
Andre Dawson, Dave Parker and Jim Rice.

For reference, entire ballot can be seen here.  Voting for the regular ballot will be announced on Tuesday, January 9th.  The Veteran's Committee ballot will be announced February 27th.  Over the next month I'll post diaries on the nominees that have a St Louis connection: Ken Boyer, August Busch Jr, Curt Flood, Whitey Herzog, Jim Kaat, Marty Marion, and Joe Torre.

Today I'd like to open up discussion on the two relievers on this year's ballot likely to get any kind of support for the hall of fame: Rich "Goose" Gossage and  Lee Smith.  But before we get to them, I thought we could start things off with Quiz.  Below is a chart showing the stats of two relievers from the same era (their careers overlap by ten seasons); one of them is in the hall of fame, the other received almost no support and was off the ballot after his first year of eligibility.  Before scrolling down, try to figure out who they are.

I imagine most will know who the guy on the right is, but here is a hint about the guy on the left...  The capital Q in "Quiz" is not a typo.

The answers are Dan Quisenberry (left) and Bruce Sutter (right).  The similarities of these two aren't entirely superficial.  Both were relatively marginal prospects until they learned a new pitching technique: with Sutter, of course, it was the split fingered fastball and with Quisenberry it was the submarine delivery and a sinking fastball.  And both subsequently went on to short, but dominating careers as closers.

There are of course some big differences between the two.  Sutter had a good nine years as an effective closer while Quisenberry only had about seven years.  But during those seven years, Quisenberry was routinely logging about 130 innings as a reliever, compared to Sutter's 80 to 100 innings.  For reference on how many innings 130 is for a pitcher, Pedro Martinez and A.J. Burnett had about that many in 23 and 21 starts, respectively, last year.  Pouring over these stats gave me new respect for Quiz!  However, the difference most relevant to today's discussion is, despite similar careers Quisenberry and Sutter received vastly different support for the HoF.  Quisenberry got only 4% in his only year on the ballot.  Sutter got 24% in his first year and went up somewhat steadily from there to his induction last year.

Of course neither is on the ballot next year, but the point of this that I don't think it is a valid argument to say that if Sutter is in the hall, Goose Gossage and Lee Smith should be there too.  Let's face it, a big part of why Bruce Sutter was elected is because he is to the splitter what Candy Cummings is to the curve.

Continue reading this post »

This is part three in my hall of fame diary series.  I have already posted some diaries on:
Bert Blyleven
And Jack Morris

I still like to have some discussion, or at least opinions, on who might join Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn in the class of 2007.  The top vote getters from last year were:

Jim Rice,
Rich "Goose" Gossage,
Andre Dawson,
Lee Smith,
Jack Morris
Tommy John

And in case you'd like the reference, the rest of the ballot is here: Harold Baines, Albert Belle, Dante Bichette, Bobby Bonilla, Scott Brosius, Jay Buhner, Ken Caminiti, Jose Canseco., Dave Concepcion, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Steve Garvey, Orel Hershiser, Wally Joyner, Don Mattingly, Mark McGwire, Dale Murphy, Paul O'Neill, Dave Parker, Bret Saberhagen, Alan Trammell, Devon White and Bobby Witt.  

After the January 9th, I'd like to discuss some of the Veteran's Committee nominees that have a St Louis connection: Ken Boyer, August Busch Jr, Curt Flood, Whitey Herzog, Jim Kaat, Marty Marion, and Joe Torre.  Voting results will be announced February 27th.






Today I thought it would be interesting to do something a bit different...  Below is a table that compares two potential HoFers.  They played similar positions over about the same years.  Three questions...

1)Based on these stats go you believe one is significantly more hall-worthy than the other?
2)If you'd need more information, what information would decide it for you?
3)Do you know who they are?
Scroll down to find out who they and to read more.

By the way, the image of Quetzalcoatl is supposed to be a bit of a hint.

Continue reading this post »

I wrote a few days ago I thought it would be fun to open a discussion on the Hall of fame candidates.  Originally I anticipated discussing around 12 of them.  I doubt there will be the time or interest now, so I'll stick to the guys most likely to get in- other than Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn, since both are sure bets.  Like I said before, Mark McGwire has been discussed and Jose Canseco seems destined to be blackballed for steroids, so that leaves the top vote getters last year:

Jim Rice
Rich "Goose" Gossage,
Andre Dawson,
Bert Blyleven ... who is discussed here    
Lee Smith,
Jack Morris
and Tommy John.

And in case you'd like the reference, the rest of the ballot is here: Harold Baines, Albert Belle, Dante Bichette, Bobby Bonilla, Scott Brosius, Jay Buhner, Dave Concepcion, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Steve Garvey, Orel Hershiser, Wally Joyner, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Paul O'Neill, Dave Parker, Bret Saberhagen, Alan Trammell, Devon White and Bobby Witt.

I know some of you mentioned Albert Belle as a worthy candidate, but given his low vote totals from last year, I think that discussion deserves to be tabled behind at least Rice, Dawson and Goosage.

After January 9th, I'd like to shift focus to some of the Veteran's Committee nominees that have a St Louis connection: Ken Boyer, August Busch Jr, Curt Flood, Whitey Herzog, Jim Kaat, Marty Marion, and Joe Torre.  Voting results will be announced February 27th.

Continue reading this post »

Ever since comparing Marquis and Weaver in azruavatar's Jason Marquis Diary I have been thinking about Jeff's L/R splits (posted above).  What strikes me about his splits isn't just how much worse he is against lefties, but also the number of left-handed plate appearances that were recorded over the past year or three years.  If You will notice, lefties have logged more plate appearances than righties against Weaver.

Now, even considering 100 point (or 10%) OBP gap, I don't THINK the number of plate appearances jive with the number of lefties and righties in a typical line-up.  I don't know for sure, but I imagine the difference is due to opposing managers giving righties a rest against Jeff and playing a lefty back-up.

Anyway, it strikes me that in the post-season, at least in the WS, that Jeff may not have faced his typical mix of lefty and righties.  If so, could this be a large part of his sucess?  Does anyone know where I might find left/right postseason splits for Weaver?

There is a great analysis over at Fungoes I think everone here should read.

Pip breaks down win shares above bench by position as shown below.  The two tables below show win shares by position (left) and win shares above bench (right) by position.  His analysis is enlightened.  I quote him below.

Continue reading this post »

Hey, I think its appropriate that we all offer our thanks to our favorite blogger here.

Continue reading this post »

From The Wall Street Journal's Daily Fix sports round up:

On Viva El Birdos, Larry Borowsky first invokes the baseball gods, noting the numerous breaks that went the Cardinals' way. But luck, as they say, is the residue of design: "the cardinals look by far to be the more composed team out there, which seems like it's 3/4 of the battle in these postseason series -- and i'm not just talking about the errors. st louis holds a devastating 19 to 6 edge over the tigers in walks through the first 4 games, reflecting a) the cardinals' intelligence and patience at the plate, and b) the tigers' anxiety, both at the plate and on the mound."

Concluding his argument, Mr. Borowsky shows he's not afraid of those baseball gods: "as we've referenced repeatedly, the cardinals came into this tournament with nothing to lose, and they haven't played a single scared inning all month. i don't expect that to change now; i think we'll be celebrating title no. 10 shortly."

Continue reading this post »

Once again, the Wall Street Journal has included Viva El Birdos in its round up of the best sport-writing on the web.  I guess they have become at least semi-regular readers, as there was no mention of a referal.

Very impressive LB!  In my years reading the WSJ I can recall only two sports blogs ever  mentioned: Brian Gunn's Redbird Nation and you own Viva El Birdos.  All you hard work is appreciated.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116135139334498914.html?mod=hps_us_at_glance_columnists

And at ace Cardinals blog Viva El Birdos, lboros has this to say, in lowercase as usual: "their courage rode on the arm of jeff suppan, who calmly preserved a 1-1 tie in the bottom of the 6th after Fate had seemingly gone all-in on the mets -- first guiding scott rolen's 6th-inning homer into endy chavez's glove and then, in the bottom half of the inning, wafting a rolen throw into the mezzanine of shea stadium to put the go-ahead run at 3d with 1 out. two game-changing plays in the span of 4 batters, both adverse to the underdog's hopes; Fate appeared not to be bluffing. but ol' supps calmly called the bet."

Congrats to Dave Hinkle who won the WSJ baseball ode contest...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116135608727898974.html?mod=The-Daily-Fix

I believe Mssr Hinkle must be a Viva El Birdos reader, as he write in part:

"We've got Scotty and Jimmy. We've got the Speez, the son of a Cardinal champion, who sports that lucky red chin thingy. We've got Albert, Carp and hopefully no killer tarp. We've got red-hot rookies and the (step)son of Mookie. Joaquin Andujar, one tough Dominican and a Cardinal forever, would assess the possibilities with one word, his personal favorite: "Youneverknow."

Viva El Birdos!"

The Wall Street Journal's Annual post-season contests have started.  Perhaps someone here can pen something great for the journal.

=================
From wsj.com:

BASEBALL FANS, READ THIS!

OK, you Mets, Cardinals, A's and Tigers fans, the Fix has a job for you. We're looking for a fan of the two pennant winners to write an ode to that club. Why are you a fan? Why root for the uniform -- in other words, what characteristics does your team have year-in and year-out, even as the cast of characters changes? Why should the Fates smile on them in this year's postseason?
Send a quick account of yourself and why you're the perfect fan for the job to dailyfix@wsj.com. We want to see that you've got the bona fides, and that you can write. Deadline: Friday at noon ET. If we pick you, we'll let you know what comes next -- assuming, of course, your team makes it to the World Series.
THE FIX WANTS YOU!

Continue reading this post »

VEB readers have been pretty much correct in the past two polls.  78% of us called the Cards over the Padres, and almost half predicted the series would end in four games win a Cardinal win.

The poll before that had 49% calling the division for the Cards.  Although this time, a plurality (nearly a third of us) thought the SF make-up game would be in-play.

Now the question is how will the NLCS end?

I thought it would be interesting to review some FA signees that were popular mentions, but the Cardinals didn't make:

Matt Lawton:
G: 11 | AB: 27 | AVG .259 | HR 0 | RBI 1 | OBP .310 | SLG .259

Reggie Sanders:
G: 88 | AB: 325 | AVG .246 | HR 11 | RBI 49 | OBP .304 | SLG .425

Mark Grudzielanek:
G: 134 | AB: 548 | AVG .297 | HR 7 | RBI 52 | OBP .331 | SLG .409

Jacque Jones
G: 139 | AB: 533 | AVG .285 | HR 27 | RBI 81 | OBP .334 | SLG .499

Brian Giles:
G: 158 | AB: 604 | AVG .263 | HR 14 | RBI 83 | OBP .374 | SLG .397

Continue reading this post »

Lets see a community poll for first round of playoffs.  The Cards may have not played well in their last two weeks and San Diego won the season series 2-4, but the Cardinals will have a well rested Carp going in game one and four if things go that long.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------

I was just wondering what everybody in Beer City, USA thinks about the possibility of knocking St Louis out of a play-off spot?

Does anyone here remember the 1982 World Series?  IMHO, Harvey's Wallbangers was one of the best teams of the 80s.  Does anyone feel a tinge of revenge now?

..................................................................................................  

I think I asked this a week ago now when I asked a similar question.  At the time almost all of us thought the Cardinals would win by 5+ games.  And only one of said the Cards would choke up the division within 161 games.

It seems to me that anything is a real possibility.  The Cardinals are still playing awful and The Astros are hot, but the Cardinals have a much easier opponent in Milwaukee over the next three games than the Astros have in Atlanta.

So I ask again, who will win the division and by how much?

From the Daily Fix (Wall Street Journal Sports Round Up) this Morning:

And the St. Louis Cardinals have seen their once-solid lead crumble to a paltry 1.5 games over the hard-charging Houston Astros, with the Cincinnati Reds still in the hunt as well. The Cardinals have lost seven in a row. The Astros have won seven in a row. And now everyone surrounding the Cardinals are talking about the team nobody wants to hear mentioned during a late-season skid: the '64 Phillies, synonymous with collapse, disaster and infamy.

In the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Bernie Miklasz is stuck with the grim task of chronicling panic.

"October has arrived early," he writes. "To the Cardinals, the final days of the regular season suddenly feel like the postseason. The tension is extreme, the pressure intense. The infield dirt is quicksand. The outfield walls are closing in. Baseball Heaven? No, forget the franchise's dopey marketing slogan. Instead, welcome to Baseball Hell. And this may explain why Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has seemingly lost his mind -- or, at the very least, misplaced his common sense."

Mr. Miklasz's complaint? Mr. La Russa left a tired Chris Carpenter in too long last night against the Padres, leading to a seventh-inning ambush that turned a 5-2 Cards lead into a 7-5 loss.

What's a Cards fan to do? Before last night's game, Viva El Birdos had this advice for neutralizing bad karma: "run on down to the corner and buy a case of gin. cart it back, open up a bottle, and start drinking just as carpenter throws the first pitch. drink deeply -- finish the first bottle while the leadoff man is still at the plate. then keep going -- two, three, four bottles, more. drink until you don't know what inning it is, what city they're playing in, or which team you root for; drink until the ballfield dissolves into a blur of raw geometric forms, vectors and arcs and right angles and trapezoids."

I know that many of you have said that the '64 Phillies comparision isn't apt since the Phillies were a good team and the '06 Cards are just an above average team, but I doubt the national media will pay much attention to that when the Cards blow the rest of their lead.

I just can't bear the thought of Houston making the play-offs because of the Cards' demise.  And I honestly believe if Houston gets in, they will go far.  That team, unlike by beloved Cardinals, is hot and is playing to win while still staying relaxed.  If nothing else, you have to respect any teams chances when they will have Clemmens, Pettite and Oswalt on the mound at least three of every four games.  Seriously, can you imagine the endless mentions of St Louis' remarkable colapse by FOX if Houston makes it to the World Series?

Anyway, like it or not, justified or not, true or not, if it does happen, The Cards' colapse will be remembered like the '64 Phillies.    

When I watched them play tonight, it stuck me that they looked worse than many losing teams I have watched over the years ('86, '88, '99).

I was going to post this earlier today, but it was just LB's tempation of fate (his 09/22 log)that kept me from it.  I just got to ask with 9 games left and the 'stros 6 back in the loss column, what are the chances the Cards could blow it?

So does anyone want to venture an opinion?

It strikes me that dispite Izzy's 10 blow saves he has a seemingly respectful ERA at 3.55.  I wondered how that could be and I realized something.  Typically when closers blow a save (and take a loss) their ERA never suffers from runners left on base which artifically lowers it.

Take tonight's game as an example.  Izzy "left"  the game with a runner at first and second and only 1 out.  But since it was the bottom of the ninth they can't score.  Had Looper doe the same in the eighth, it is quite possible one or both players would have scored to make his record even worse.

Anyway I was wondering if it would be possible to figure out how much this 'ninth inning effect' has on closers?

If it wasn't obvious to me before, it seems obvious this year that the AL is a much better league than the NL.  And while KC is probably the worst team in the AL (or maybe 2nd worst to Tampa Bay), I think if they were in the NL instead of Milwaukee things might be quite different for them.

To me the question is especially poignant as the Cardinals have started their anual somnambulistic play a couple of months early and a lot of us have even declared our team to be the worst in baseball right now.    

So I am just curious to everyone's opinion on how would the Royals fare if they played in the NL central?

I was just curious, does anyone else suspect our pitching woes might be because our guys are coming off steriod use.  A lot has been said about how steroids can enhance the durability of pitchers and lets face it LaRussa is know (or suspected) to look the other way when it comes to steroids.

Just a thought.

I submitted LB's interview with Alex Belth to the Wall Street Journal Yesterday and our favorite blog has gotten a bit of national respect.

-------------------------------------------------
From the excellent St. Louis Cardinals blog Viva El Birdos comes a transcript of an interesting conversation with Alex Belth, author of "Stepping Up: The Story of All-Star Curt Flood and His Fight for Baseball Players' Rights."

Continue reading this post »