I was watching Casino Grill Room today and they were discussing the plight of Jays attendance (about 15K today). Emerging from the discussion were several ideas including, of course, lowering ticket prices. I am not sure if lowering ticket prices is an optimal solution, although, I do like the idea of offering 500 level seating on an auction basis, based on the understanding that the facility is a sunk cost and even if 500 level seats go only for $1, incremental concession revenues could lead to higher net revenue. I think folks who are willing to pay up for premium seats are not really put off by Jays pricing so low priced 500 level seats are likely to have minimal cannibalization impact on 100-200 level sales.

Another idea advanced was bringing back BJ Birdie. I have previously mentioned this idea in fact vs. fiction so I thought it was interesting that others were thinking the same way. I am of a view that BJ Birdie could return as a complement to Ace and maybe they could generate some sort of rivalry like Spy vs. Spy or Itchy & Scratchy - toned down of course.

A philosophical marketing shift was suggested. Whereas the Jays have recently marketed themselves as a family destination, the Grill Room crew offered up the idea that Jays might re-position themselves as a venue for affluent urban dwellers who have plenty of discretionary income.

The Grill Room seemed to feel that cheerleaders would be a good idea, consistent with the view that a broader entertainment package needs to be offered until the team becomes more competitive. Ultimately, they agreed a winning team was needed to drive attendance.

In any case, it seems that at a minimum, they should engage a marketing consulting firm to evaluate their situation and design a strategy.

Do you have good ideas to drive attendance in the intervening period until the Jays make a run at the championship?

Having started 7-3, it is hard to fault the overall effectiveness of the Jays’ starting pitchers. So, after two iterations through the starting rotation, now might be an opportune time to examine the Jays’ starting five.

DURABILITY

First, let’s look at durability. Now originally, one of the key reasons for placing Tallet in the starting rotation was his durability. Did he hold up? Well Tallet’s numbers were certainly respectable but he was slightly eclipsed by others.
 
By innings pitched, Jays’ starters rank as follows:
(1) Romero:15 (2) Eveland:13.1 (3) Marcum:13 (4) Tallet:12.2 (5) Morrow:9

By pitches thrown, Jays’ starters rank as follows:
(1) Romero:204 (2) Tallet:195 (3) Marcum:192 (4) Eveland:184 (5) Morrow:171

ACCURACY

Throwing lots of pitches is an admirable trait, but arguably, nothing lightens the load like accuracy. “Work smart, not hard”, the expression goes. Accuracy results are a bit of mixed bag, with Marcum and Romero as standouts, although Romero leads in one negative category, wild pitches.

By strikes as a percent of pitches thrown, Jays’ starters rank as follows:
(1) Romero:64.2% (2) Marcum:62.5% (3) Eveland:61.4% (4) Tallet:59.5% (5) Morrow:59.1%

By strikeouts per nine innings, Jays’ starters rank as follows:
(1) Romero:9.6 (2) Marcum:7.6 (3) Tallet:6.4 (4) Morrow:6.0 (5) Eveland:4.1

By ratio of strikeouts to walks, Jays’ starters rank as follows:
(1) Marcum:5.5 (2) Romero:4.9 (3) Tallet:1.8 (4) Morrow:1.3 (5) Eveland:1.2

By wild pitches, Jays’ starters rank as follows:
(1) Romero:3 (2) Eveland,Marcum,Morrow,Tallet:0

EFFECTIVENESS

Accuracy leaders generally flow through to effectiveness, although on the basis of effectiveness, Eveland’s results look comparatively strong.

By WHIP, Jays’ starter rank as follows:
(1) Romero:.667 (2) Marcum:.923 (3) Eveland:.975 (4) Tallet:1.342 (5) Morrow:2

By ERA, Jays’ starters rank as follows:
(1) Eveland:1.35 (2) Romero:1.8 (3) Marcum:3.46 (4) Tallet:5.68 (5) Morrow:12

By BAA, Jays’ starters rank as follows:
(1) Romero:.124 (2) Eveland:.175 (3) Marcum:.214 (4) Tallet:.251 (5) Morrow:.321

By W-L, Jays’s starters rank as follows:
(1) Eveland:2-0 (2) Romero:1-0 (3) Tallet:1-0 (4) Marcum:0-0 (5) Morrow:0-1

QUESTION

Although it is early in the season, after two iterations who would you rank as the Jays’ leading starter tandem?

[ It is a tandem pole, as it would be too easy to just pick one ;-) ]

(sources: Baseball-Reference, Fangraphs)

Yahoo Sports posted an interesting article about 28 year old Garrett Jones emerging as an MLB player.

Some quotables:

“Some guys develop later than others and some guys just need an opportunity with the right team,” Jones said. “It’s a combination of things. It’s just a matter of time for some guys. For me, it came down to having an approach and a plan at the plate.”

Ruiz could be an even later developer at 32 versus Jones' 28.

Some stats:

Jones hit 158 home runs in 1,038 minor league games, big numbers possible only for a player unwanted by the major leagues

So Jones averaged .152 taters per MiLB game. In contrast, Ruiz has hit 268 MiLB taters in 1568 for an average of .171 taters per game or at a rate 12% higher than Jones. 

Now some folks would say, Ruiz has played more MiLB games so he should hit better, and they would be right. However, if we look at Ruiz's first eight MiLB seasons we can get a better comp for Ruiz versus Jones.

Over Ruiz's first eight MiLB seasons (1999-2006), Ruiz played 1083 games (45 more than Jones, but close enough) where Ruiz hit 182 taters for an average of .168 taters per game or at a rate 10% higher than Jones.

In the seasons where Ruiz stayed in the MiLB longer than Jones, Ruiz just got stronger. Over those 485 games, Ruiz homered 86 times implying an average rate of .177 taters or at a rate 16% higher than Jones.

At MLB level, we are dealing with small samples for Ruiz and Jones but the numbers are still comparable. Over 118 MLB games, Jones has hit 26 taters in 118 games or an average of .220 taters per game. In 55 MLB games, Ruiz has hit 11 taters or an average of .200 taters per game.

These numbers seem to indicate that Ruiz and Jones were on the same MiLB (HR) development path. Perhaps Ruiz is the next Garrett Jones.

Reflecting the opinions of Kevin Kaduk and David Brown, Yahoo posted its AL East preview today. Kevin Kaduk and David Brown were both in agreement that the Jays will finish 5 of 5 this season. They believe that Jays and Os are both in rebuilding mode, but that the Os are currently a step ahead and Jays just at the beginning of the process. Could be, tough to argue either way, but Jays have better pitching so I could wager on them over the Os if pressed.

David Brown wins massive MASSIVE kudos by calling for at least 500 ABs for Randy Ruiz. BOO YEA!  He says he wants to see it, so it must be on his top ten list of reasons to watch the Jays in 2010. ;-)

'Duk: OK, we're eating into traffic and weather time here on the air, so let's touch upon the division's other two teams — the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays. They'll both be earning short mentions in division previews from coast-to-coast, but for completely different reasons. The O's are in a good spot when it comes to rebuilding. There's a stable of young position-playing stars in Baltimore and it's hard not to see a Rays-like future in Charm City. But their pitching staff is still a little shaky and we'll need to see if young arms like the one belonging to Brian Matusz(notes) are really up to the challenge before predicting something higher than fourth place. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are in the beginning of a rebuilding process and even Jays fans aren't predicting anything higher than fifth place for this team. I mean, I had to go with opening day starter Shaun Marcum(notes) as the big Blue Jay in our graphic up there at the top of this post. Even Marcum looks like he can't believe it.

DB: Well, I'm just not sure about the Orioles and not just because they passed me over for public address announcer. I think Nick Markakis(notes) should be better. I worry about Brian Roberts'(notes) back. I like Chris Tillman(notes) and Brian Matusz, even if he mispronounces his own last name and even if they're both unproven. Matt Wieters(notes) might be the best young hitter in the whole division. Adam Jones(notes) is the coolest, perhaps nicest player in the league.

I just don't know what it adds up to. They're better than the Blue Jays, but what does that even mean? Roy Halladay(notes) is long gone from Toronto. Their key player is probably Vernon Wells(notes); if he regains All-Star form, maybe Alex Anthopoulos can trade Wells' overpaid self to the Red Sox or Angels. Personally, I just want to see Randy Ruiz(notes) get 500 at-bats somehow. And for Roberto Alomar to make the Hall of Fame. If those two things happen between now and next March 1, Jays fans can be happy with me. Actually, three things: They also permanently re-adopt the powder blue uniforms. But even if that happens, it's a long, long way looking up at the rest of the AL East. 

Presumably, most long-suffering Leafs fans recognize the organizational rebuilding process currently being spearheaded by Brian Burke. Arguably, the addition of top-tier players like Kessel, Phaneuf and perhaps Giguere are necessary steps to (re-)creating a cup contender.

That said, today the Leafs shipped out about one-third of their offensive punch (in terms of goal-scoring ability) without any meaningful replacement for 2010. Near-term, the team's ability to score has probably been seriously diminished.

The rest of this season could be ugly. To date, the Leafs are winning less than once every three games. Based on their current pace, the Leafs would win only eight or nine more of its remaining 26 games. But with a chunk of their scoring punch gone, results could be much worse. Could this team really go win-less the rest of the season? It does not seem that big a stretch.

How many more games do you think the "new look" Leafs will win?

2010 Jays Payroll, Per MLBastian (as of Jan 26, 2010)

• CF Vernon Wells ($21 million, including $8.5 million),
• 1B Lyle Overbay ($7 million),
• 3B Edwin Encarnacion ($4.75 million),
• 2B Aaron Hill ($4 million),
• LHP Scott Downs ($4 million),
• SS Alex Gonzalez ($2.75 million),
• RHP Jason Frasor ($2.65 million),
• OF Jose Bautista ($2.4 million),
• LHP Brian Tallet ($2 million),
• C John Buck ($2 million),
• SS John McDonald ($1.5 million),
• RHP Shawn Camp ($1.15 million),
• RHP Jeremy Accardo ($1.08 million),
• RHP Shaun Marcum ($850K),
• RHP Casey Janssen ($700K),
• RHP Dustin McGowan ($500K) 

Sub-total roster (16 of 25) = $58.3 million

Other Non-Roster:

• Halladay ($6 million)
• Ryan ($10 million) 

Sub-total non-roster = $16 million

Combined total = $74.3 million

from Hotstove.com

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports via Twitter that the Rangers have designated utility man Joe Inglett for assignment.

The move was reportedly made in order to make room on the 40-man roster for recently-signed pitcher Colby Lewis. Inglett, 31, batted .281/.347/.348 in 99 plate appearances for the Blue Jays in 2009. The Rangers had claimed him off of waivers from Toronto in December.

Sporting News staff reportsWednesday, Jan. 6, 2010 - 3:54 a.m. ET

One intriguing free agent remains on the market, and his destination may be known soon.

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported Tuesday that 21-year-old Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman may sign "within the next three or four days." The newspaper reported the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays are the favorites to land him, and that each has offered him about $21 million.

Chapman reportedly has also received offers from the Florida Marlins ($13 million) and the Boston Red Sox ($15 million).

Teams have been eager to scout Chapman ever since he defected from Cuba. He was impressive in a recent workout for scouts in Houston; he reached the mid-90s with his fastball.

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2010-01-06/angels-jays-reportedly-lead-sign-aroldis-chapman

fingers crossed, come on Chapman

Pursuant to the posting about Scott Richmond, I was looking through some of his detailed stats at Fangraphs.com (a great source for detailed MLB stats). Included in the notes about Richmond was mention that Cito Gaston, earlier in 2009, was contemplating a six-man rotation for the Jays. Hmmm. Maybe a good idea. After all, the Jays have a bunch of young prospect pitchers who would probably benefit from the combination of MLB experience but reduced season pitch count from a six-man rotation. Similarly, the Jays have a number of pitchers returning from injury who might also benefit from the slower ramp back to full production that a six-man rotation could offer. From that perspective, a six-man rotation could suit Jays' SP quite well. What remains to be determined is the effect on the RP staff that a six-man rotation would offer. Does a six-man rotation imply that starters would go deeper into games than a five-man rotation? Seems intuitive but maybe not. At a minimum, the six-man rotation seems a strategy perhaps worth contemplating.

According to Bastian ( http://mlbastian.mlblogs.com/ ) here is how the Jays' current rotation stacks up:

The way things stack up right now, you could be looking at a rotation of Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Marc Rzepczynski, Brett Cecil and Morrow.

Others in the mix might include:

Other pitchers in the mix are David Purcey, Scott Richmond, Brad Mills and Robert Ray. Don't forget about recently-acquired Kyle Drabek, who could be a darkhorse candidate

As to the status on Litsch and McGowan, Bastian quotes AA:

"We've talked about Litsch being back in July and McGowan, we're still not certain what his role is going to be and what his health is going to be. So, we don't really factor them in when we look at the offseason, because you just don't know when it comes to the health of starters."

So, I guess this is where the smart money is betting on Jays' 2010 starting rotation.

Watching Casino Rama Sports Grill tonight, and they have just announced that Roy Halladay has taken out a full page ad that will appear in tomorrow's Toronto Sun. The ad is Roy Halladay's formal and public farewell to Toronto Blue Jay fans. IMHO, this is another great gesture by a fantastic player. Roy pitched great while he was here, the manner in which he departed enabled the organization to maximize its options and now he makes an effort to reach out to fans one last time.  I say "thanks Roy" and look forward to seeing you in June 2010.

A couple of odd pieces surrounding the Halladay situation made their way into the press recently:

(1) First there is an article on the Boston Herald web site (sourced from Chicago Tribune) which says that few teams are interested in Halladay. Now admittedly, the report does go on to say that BoSox and Yankees have strong interest in Halladay but the article, at least to my reading, seems to imply a lack of interest. IMHO, this misstates the facts. Probably a more accurate portrayal of the situation is that many teams are interested, but based on Roy's stated goal of playing for a near-term contender, few teams are eligible. Case in point, the Texas Rangers, to which trade Roy has already vetoed. I cannot help but think it is wishful thinking at the Boston Herald that Red Sox could pick up Roy on the cheap, but that is not likely to be the case.

http://news.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/other_mlb/view/20091205few_teams_in_the_hunt_for_blue_jays_ace_roy_halladay/srvc=home&position=recent

(2) Second, the CDN Press is reporting that Ricciardi commented in a Sirius XM radio interview that Roy explicitly wants to be traded. Now, I read through the article a couple of times and it does not state that JP is claiming that Roy SAID he wanted to be trades, only that JP claims Roy WANTS to be traded. Hmmm, sounds like speculation to me. Moreover, the article goes on to cite more JP commentary along the lines that high profile trades of a Halladay-stature are the responsibility of ownership and not the GM's call. Wow, so after dancing in the Halladay-trade limelight for months, JP is now claiming it was never his call. Maybe ownership just fed Ricciardi enough rope to hang himself. In any case, at the risk of sounding skeptical, the article really tilts heavilty to Ricciardi trying to spin the Halladay-situation in a way that reflects most favourably upon him. You would not do that would you JP?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jRIE5p2ZFaEzUSSO6QLwMLnvHKxg

Yesterday the Toronto Star (via Richard Griffin) offered to debunk three accepted truths concerning the Halladay situation that they believe to be unfounded. Here is the article:

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/article/732832--griffin-more-fiction-than-fact-in-halladay-trade-talk

Myth (1) Halladay asked to be traded last June : Well, I am not sure that this is even a myth. Everyone, or at least so I thought, was aware that Halladay indicated reluctance when queried as to his post-contract intentions. He did not ask to be traded but balked at the suggestion of a contract extension.

Myth (2) Ricciardi botched the situation leading up to the trade deadline : TorStar is claiming that Ricciardi, as a lame duck manager, actually did not have authority to pull the trigger on a Halladay deal last season. If true, this is a very interesting revelation. Perhaps the process last year provided the Jays with some insight into what Roy could command on the open market and what they would need to pay to re-sign him or what they could receive for trade. However, if the Jays never had any serious intention of trading Roy, they may have jeopardized their credibility with respect to future dealings with other MLB teams. Risky, IMHO.

Myth (3) The Jays were better off trading in July : This is probably a timeless debate that goes beyond the Halladay situation. A trade at the deadline offers the perceived advantage of motivated buyers, who's earnest is heightened by late-season jockeying with the playoff finish line in sight. The downside is that the market for playoff contenders is small and their ability to negotiate highly constrained by full rosters and contracts in mid-obligation. In contrast, off season deal-making offers a bigger market, perhaps less frenzied, but more liquid from open roster spots and unallocated spending budgets. Doubtful this issue will ever be resolved.

ESPN is reporting that Roy Halladay's camp are saying that if there is to be any trade, it must be completed this off-season, or Halladay will veto any deal. In other words, the Jays no longer have the option of moving Halladay at the 2010 trade deadline. Presumably, Roy wishes to avoid another incidence of the trade deadline three-ring circus that he suffered through in 2009. Can you blame him? Anyhow, ESPN is citing a partner at the firm where his point-agent is currently situated.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4702760

From the Jays web page, the latest rumor has BoSox heating up their pursuit of Roy. I am not so excited about creating another AL East titan, but if the Jays can get a real good deal, it is a bitter pill I could swallow. Of course, any deal with the Sox would have to include Heidi Watney coming to Toronto, Click title for link:

Boston putting on 'full-court press' to acquire Jays ace

By Ian Browne / MLB.com

TORONTO -- Marco Scutaro and John McDonald both filed for free agency on Friday, leaving the shortstop position vacant on the Blue Jays' depth chart. Toronto needs to add a starting shortstop for 2010 and the club might try to bring back one or both of the veteran free agents.

Scutaro and McDonald took the necessary step toward the open market one day after Blue Jays first baseman Kevin Millar also filed the appropriate paperwork with the league office. Catcher Rod Barajas is the only eligible free agent for Toronto yet to file. All teams have exclusive negotiating rights with their own free agents until Nov. 20, when other clubs can begin offering contracts to any free agents.

Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos has indicated that Toronto has interest in retaining Scutaro and McDonald, but the organization will weigh all its options. Playing a role in the Blue Jays' decision could be the fact that the 34-year-old Scutaro is coming off a career year that led to him being classified as a Type A free agent this winter.

That is something the Blue Jays did not anticipate when they traded for Scutaro -- a career utility man prior to last season. In his second year with Toronto, the shortstop and leadoff man thrived as a full-time player, hitting .282 with a .379 on-base percentage and career bests in home runs (12), doubles (35), RBIs (60), stolen bases (14), walks (90) and runs scored (100).

If Toronto offers Scutaro arbitration and he declines and signs with another team, the Jays would be in line to receive a pair of compensatory picks (potentially a first-round selection and a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds) in the 2010 First-Year Player Draft. With the Jays possibly heading into a rebuilding period, the club might try to take advantage of Scutaro's current value.

The 35-year-old McDonald made $1.9 million in 2009 in the final season under a two-year contract, but the veteran infielder had limited playing time. McDonald's 151 at-bats and 35 starts were his fewest since he played for Cleveland in 2004. McDonald -- known more for his skill on defense than at the plate -- hit .258 with four homers and 13 RBIs over 73 games.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091106&content_id=7634582&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

MIAMI (AP)—The Boston Red Sox have acquired outfielder Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins for left-handers Jose Alvarez and Hunter Jones.

Hermida was the Marlins’ first-round draft pick in 2002 but has yet to fulfill his projected potential. He hit .259 this year with 13 home runs and 47 RBIs. He’s a career .265 hitter with 57 homers.

Alvarez went 9-4 in Class A this year with a 2.26 ERA in 12 starts and 14 relief appearances. The 20-year-old Venezuelan has a 3.21 ERA in four minor league seasons.

Jones spent most of this year in Triple-A but had a 9.24 ERA in 11 relief appearances for the Red Sox.

Lets hope this is not one in a series of potential Jays migration to the Bosox (ie: Scutaro), subject to economic rationality, of course.

10/03/2009 10:49 AM ET

ROGERS today announced that J.P. RICCIARDI will be leaving his position as Senior Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager of the Toronto Blue Jays effective immediately. Mr. Ricciardi joined the Blue Jays in 2001.

"This was a tough decision and a difficult one for me personally as I have enjoyed J.P.'s friendship and his perspective on the game," said Paul Beeston, acting President, and CEO. "J.P. has put an incredible amount of effort into improving the team and he has brought along a number of great young players. However, I feel that it is time for a change and accordingly we have decided to move on."

Alexander Anthopoulos, Vice President, Baseball Operations & Assistant General Manager will fill the role commencing today.

This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

Love this article about Snider. Looks like a 21-year old with great talent and the maturity to develop it.

Toronto (66-80) at Tampa Bay (74-73), 7:38 p.m. ET

By Jordan Bastian / MLB.com

NEW YORK -- Travis Snider is not going to make the same mistake he made earlier this season. After enjoying the first multihomer showing of his career, launching a pair of towering shots inside the Metrodome on April 15, the Blue Jays rookie admittedly got caught up in his success.

"Things definitely went downhill after that series," Snider said. "I think that was more pressure that I put on myself, trying to do too much. I think that's been something I've battled with all year."

On Tuesday night against the Yankees, the 21-year-old Snider once again launched two home runs in one game, giving him eight blasts in only 62 games with Toronto. Both long balls sailed deep into the second deck above right field at Yankee Stadium, but Snider spent little time admiring the homers, opting instead for a quick sprint around the bases.

As impressive as the pair of homers were, Snider has been laboring since being recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas in August, and he does not want to put too much emphasis on one night of positive results. Snider is trying to focus on finding a consistent approach in the batter's box, and he knows one game does not mean his work is done.

"I know I'm just trying to keep as consistent as possible," Snider said, "and as level-headed as possible -- no matter if you go 2-for-4 or 0-for-4. It's got to be the same mentality -- hungry and go out there the next day and try to do better."

After his two homers against the Twins in April, Snider slumped at the plate, hitting just .225 with no homers over his next 26 games before being sent back to the Minor Leagues. Since being promoted again last month, the left-handed-hitting outfielder has clubbed five homers, but he's only managed a .222 batting average.

"There's some adjustments that we're making," said Snider, who was a first-round pick in the 2006 First-Year Player Draft. "At the plate, it's been a battle. It's something that I know, to be successful at this level, the adjustments need to be made. It's showing signs here or there, but you don't want to get caught up in the success too much.

"You want to be positive and take the positives and learn from the negatives and just move forward."

As Cito approaches retirement age, he has already publicly indicated that his future beyond 2010 remains a question in his mind. Cito has contributed much to the Jays org and even if he does not continue as Manager beyond 2010, Cito has indicated that he would be pleased to serve in a transitional role.

Realistically, the Jays might need to contemplate a new Manager for the team. The Jays roster does feature much young talent that could arguably be developed into a contender, even in the tough AL East. A strong baseball mind could be instrumental in building that contender. To that end, I might consider Rance Mulliniks as a candidate.

Rance played MLB baseball for about 15 years. Arguably, he is not a guy who made it on pure talent but just hard work. Like Scutaro, he was a high OBP guy showing great patience (and knowledge) at the plate. Unlike inborn natural talent, arguably good plate knowledge can be taught. Moreover, having played all the infield roles and based on his Jays game commentary, Rance's knowledge concerning play with the glove is also strong. When it comes to knowledge of the game, I think Rance has demonstrated strong credentials.

Lastly, other considerations. Rance is 53 years old so probably has at least 10 years of Manager potential in him. Moreover, he has shown himself to be a personality of calm and/or balanced demeanor and thus brings no "baggage" with him. As a long time Jay, Rance also brings strong organizational knowledge to the table.

Contemplating all these factors and should Cito decide to move on after 2010, I think Rance would make a great new Manager for the Jays. Recognizing that we are just discussing hypotheticals at this point, do you think Rance would be a good fit as Jays Manager?

Generally, when you set the batting order, the intent is to optimize so that your best hitters get the most ABs and your power hitters get the most opportunities with runners on base.

However, at this point, we are all pretty much agreed that the Jays have fallen off the playoff race. Accordingly, there might be a bit more flexibility in setting the lineup order.

Yet, with so much relatively new talent in the lineup, now seems the optimum time to experiment. In particular, I would like to see guys like Snider and Ruiz moved into the heart of the order, to see how well they respond to pressure. It would be interesting to see how both these power hitters respond at cleanup. Also, I would like to see Lind hit in the cleanup role a bit more to see how he responds. Through Sept, the Jays have both a multitude of players to evaluate and the flexibility in standings to do it. Lets not waste the opportunity -- move Ruiz, Snider and Lind (well, already there) and lets see them perform and/or ramp up the learning curve as fast as possible.

Well, the Jays have now lost 6 of 7 most recent games. Ugh. I thought to myself, "these guys must have slipped even further down the win-loss ladder". A couple of weeks ago, I presented a table that showed how since the Jays topped out at 27-14 on May 19, the team had generated the fourth worst winning record through August 4, ahead of only the Reds, Nats and Royals, in that order.

Well, since then things have worsened. Through August 19, essentially 3 months since the Jays peaked at 27 -14 for a .659 win rate, the teams win rate has plummeted 295 points to a .364 win rate the second worse in the league ahead of only the KC Royals. As such, over the past two-weeks both the Nats and the Reds have been able to climb over the Jays in post-May 19 win rates. The Reds at .366 outpaced the Jays' win rate by 2 points and the Nats at .386 outpaced the Jays' win rate by 22 points. This is not good company.

Something needs to be fixed. I am not sure how long the excuses can hold. "Maybe next year" and "the AL East is so hard" - might not be good enough.

For some of those folks on the Jays side of the Rios salary dump who may be feeling unnerved, here is a little perspective on the anxiety being felt on the ChiSox side.  These comments were extracted from an article by David Brown on Yahoo today:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Oops-White-Sox-make-60-million-waiver-claim-o?urn=mlb,181984

"Kenny, what did you do?

Kenny Williams (above right) has pulled off some surprising moves since becoming Chicago's general manager, but this one raises the eyebrows to their highest possible point on the forehead. 

The White Sox claimed Rios and are stuck because the Jays just let him go. J.P. Ricciardi didn't allow Roy Halladay(notes) to escape, but Rios? You, you go ahead.

He's an above-average right fielder on defense and probably would be an average center fielder if given a chance there. But is he worth $9 million a season for all that? And where will he play this season?

Will this be considered a job-saving shrewd move by Ricciardi? Is it the beginning of the end for Williams, who brought a World Series trophy to the White Sox in '05? "

We were all excited by the Jays' great start with dreams of playoffs dancing in our heads. The Jays raced to a 27-14 start by May 18. However, since then the Jays have skidded, stabilized, skidded again and are now limping their way through the schedule. It has been challenging and the win-rate results have been bad, but how bad?

Well I calculated the win rates for all MLB teams for May 19 through August 4 and the results are not encouraging. Over that period, our beloved Jays generated a .369 win rate, fourth worst in the league. The only teams with worse records were the Reds(.362), Nationals(.343) and Royals(.309) -- Rolen traded down!  LOL

The strongest win-rates over that time range were generated by the Angels (.657) and Rockies (.638). Painfully, after the Angels and Rockies the three teams with the highest win-rates were all AL East rivals including Yankees (.632), BoSox (.597) and Rays (.582).  Life is tough in the AL East.

Here are the results (Win Rates by MLB Team for May 19 - August 4):

A Philly source is reporting that Halladay trade talks between Jays and Phillies are over.

Here is the link:

http://philly2philly.com/sports/the_eye/2009/7/28/51157/the_roy_halladay_trade_sweepstakes_all_over

This was probably inevitable. The Phillies org exhibited, IMHO, some irrational attachment to several prospects. Time will tell, if these prospects pan out to the extent that they position the Phillies for maybe 2 to 3 world series, but I am doubtful.

Perhaps a California, or - gulp - AL East team, will make a last minute offer. If so, do they have a comparable list of prospects? Probably not. If not, will they be willing to swallow Wells' contract? Afterall, both the Yanks and Red Sox have some outfield holes developing and a normal performing Wells is still a very good player, despite dearly priced.

Keep an eye out - well, maybe.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Largest Baseball Current Contract Packages

Associated Press

NEW YORK -- Current baseball contracts worth $100 million or more. Figures were obtained by The Associated Press from player and management sources and include all guaranteed income but not income from potential incentive bonuses. There is no distinction for money deferred without interest: Player, Club Years Total

Alex Rodriguez, NYY 2008-17 $275 million

Derek Jeter, NYY 2001-10 $189 million

Mark Teixeira, NYY 2009-16 $180 million

CC Sabathia, NYY 2009-15 $161 million

Miguel Cabrera, Det 2008-15 $152.3 million

Todd Helton, Col 2003-11 $141.5 million

Johan Santana, NYM 2008-13 $137.5 million

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs 2007-14 $136 million

Barry Zito, SF 2007-13 $126 million

Vernon Wells, Tor 2008-14 $126 million

Carlos Beltran, NYM 2005-11 $119 million

Carlos Lee, Hou 2007-12 $100 million

Albert Pujols, StL 2004-10 $100 million

I can't imagine that Cubs fans are very happy either, right now.

Here is a post from Mets' blog, claiming they have rebuffed an offer from JP calling for Halladay for prospects. I cannot believe it. To me this trade would be ludicrous.

http://www.metsblog.com/2009/07/20/buzz-mets-rejected-offer-for-halladay/#comment-583883

Jon Heyman of SI.com believes the Mets rejected a deal from the Jays for RHP Roy Halladay, in return for OF Fernando Martinez, Bobby Parnell, Jon Niese and 17–year-old SS Ruben Tejada.

“The Mets responded with a resounding no,” according to Heyman.

…that is pretty steep… it is… that said, Johan Santana and Roy Halladay is just so damn tempting… i mean, think about that for a second… of course, it means nothing if the Mets can’t score… but, let’s assume this season is a wash, next season you’d have a reloaded offense, two aces in a pitcher’s park and K-Rod in the back of the pen, all while hanging on to Brad Holt and Jennry Mejia… like i said, tempting… plus, i wonder if Alex Rios could have been put in there some how… hmmm…

…i initially said i could go either way on this… however, now that i think about it, i think i would have done it… regardless of a contract extension… i mean, being able to keep holt and mejia, and Wilmer Flores, among others, and pairing up the two best pitchers in the league is just too much to resist… not to mention, it would re-engage fans enough this season to save ratings and ticket sales, etc., while building hype for next year… oh well…

Since the Jays have recently been a source of great anguish to us loyal fans, it might be helpful to look to Vegas as a source of optimism for the future.

First up, our man Snider had a decent evening. He went one for four including a solo shot and only a single K. The power is coming back more and more.

Although Hugo frequently speaks highly of Arencibia, I have been bagging on him for his recent struggles. Tonight Arencibia proved me wrong, going 4 for 4, including a double and a tater. Keep it up!

Dopirak cooled off, following his 3 for 4 explosion into AAA the other night. He went 0 for 3, including one K.

Burres pitched a reasonable outing. He did allow 9 hits in seven innings but answered with 9 Ks and only 1 BB. The net was 4 ER, a reasonable effort against Tacoma.

Overall, some good hitting news for sure.

Snider appears to have re-acquired his stroke. It is arguably premature to call him up, but the way the Jays are struggling, it may be necessary.

Fabio Castro pitched a great one last night, against Tacoma, the third highest ranked hitting team (by avg) in the PCL.

Over 7 innings, Fabio allowed only 2 runs (1 ER), no BB and 2 strike outs.  Fabio allowed only 4 hits, including a tater.

Perhaps Fabio has got his groove back, adding only more complexity to an ample pipeline of young pitching arms for the Jays.

Time will tell, but it may provide some assurance to future outlook for the team.

At mid-season, it may be informative to see how bookies contemplate the Jays season-to-date performance. Based on betting odds, the mood toward the Jays appears to have soured.

As have the Jays' fortunes declined on the field, so has their betting line in Vegas. Right now, the Jays are 60:1 to win the ALCS, a decline of 253% from the opening line of 17:1. Jays' AL East rival, Boston, remains the favorite at 1.8:1, a 40% improvement from the opening line of 3:1. The hated Yankees are 2:1, 56% improved from 4.5:1 opening. While Tampa at 7.5:1, is down 50% from 5:1 opening. Baltimore at 500:1 is too long a shot, IMHO, to warrant further discussion.

The only other AL teams to achieve improved odds include Detroit at 6.5:1, a 54% improvement from 14:1 opening; Texas at 25:1, a 29% improvement from 35:1 opening; and Seattle, at 35:1, a 13% improvement from 40:1 opening.

Out of 14 AL Teams, Vegas ranks the Jays 10th. Hmmmmm ..... no respect.

Source: VegasInsider.com