SB Nation User Blog: aaronlybrand

Calling All Losers

aaronlybrand — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 04:05:23 -0000

I was digging through some stats for another piece that I hope to write in the future about Will Muschamp and Greg Davis, and stumbled upon some interesting stats about the ’09 Longhorns. Stats are for losers, but… well… I guess that would make me a loser. If you’re a loser too, read on my brethren.

Offense:

* Through six games the Longhorns still lead the nation in scoring at 42 points per game. That’s right, six touchdowns per contest despite the struggle that occurred this past Saturday.

* Although we now know, thanks to Mack, that Texas from this point on is going to stress the run (haven’t I heard that somewhere before?) we’re right on pace to have the same kind of rushing stats as 2008. (Currently ranked 41/finished at 41 in ’08, currently rushing for 169 ypg/rushed for 167 ypg in ’08)

* In many a Mack Brown presser we’ve heard talk of forcing more turnovers to give ourselves a greater chance of winning the game. Mack’s wish is the defenses command as they’ve forced 19 turnovers so far. That’s 3 more than all of last year. Unfortunately, this is listed under the offense category because the offense has already given the ball back to the opponents 14 times, which is just as many turnovers as we had in all of 2008. I don’t know how, but somehow this will end up being Greg Davis’ fault.

Defense:

* Texas has the best run defense by far this season surrendering only 35.8 yards per game. Texas actually lowered it’s yards allowed rushing by holding OU to -16 yards on 22 attempts this past Saturday. It also helps that Texas faces only 28 rushes per game which is the 3rd fewest amongst FBS teams. By comparison, Western Kentucky’s defense (new to FBS this year), faces 48 rushes per match.

* Mushcamp’s pass defense ranks 50th in the nation in yards given up per game leading some to say, "average." But, we all know how bogus a stat ‘pass yards allowed’ is. Of course you won’t lead the nation in pass defense when you have to defend against and average of 40 passes per game (second most in FBS). A more telling pass defense stat is yards allowed per pass attempt. Where might Texas rank in that category? In a tie for 9that 5.3 y/a. That sounds more like it. Other teams in the top 10 of yards allowed per pass attempt: North Carolina, Florida, Alabama, and Boise St.

* How much has a year of seasoning for our young secondary helped the pass defense? Last year Texas picked of 6 passes for the entire season. They already had 10 INTs through 6 games in 2009. Opposing QBs are completing just over 52% of their pass attempts with a passer rating 25 points lower than a season ago. (No one really knows what passer rating is, but 25 points has to be good)

* The defense currently ranks 6th in total defense yielding 246 yards per game. The last time Texas finished top 10 in total defense? You guessed it, 2005.

Special Teams:

* The Horns have scored six non-offensive touchdowns in six games (2 punt returns, 2 kick returns, 1 punt block for TD, and 1 INT returned for TD).

* The kicking game has already resulted in 12 made field goals. In all of 2008 Texas made 11 field goals. I’m sure if this is a good or bad thing.

* And lastly, we all know the struggles the kick coverage unit has shown so far this season. They rank in the bottom half of FBS teams in terms of yards per return given up. However, they also face more kick offs to cover than 119 of the 120 FBS teams which, I guess you could say, gives them more of a chance to fail in this new world of kicking off from the 30.

Well, there you have it losers. I’m sure there are more interesting tidbits to be dug up, but for now, stay lost my friends.

NOTE: This was probably inappropriate use of the block quote feature. I was just trying to indent my bullet points and it came out like that. I thought it looked cool so I left it.

Halfway point grades Part 1

aaronlybrand — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 21:21:36 -0000

With the regular season now officially at the half-way point I thought it a good time to hand out some meaningless grades for each position for the 'Horns.

Get ready to jump into oblivion.

Coaches:

Head Coach: A What more do you want from your head coach? We've won all the games. He's kept the player's heads on straight. The team as a whole has made good half-time adjustments, and like I said earlier, the Longhorns are undefeated.

Offensive Coordinator: B I find that most Longhorn fans despise Greg Davis for various reasons, but the fact remains that Texas continues to field one of the best offenses in the nation year in year out. I know there are those who feel that our talent should behoove us to score 183 points every single game, and the only reason we don't is the horrible play calling of Davis. The offense did not look good at the RRR, but I cannot put a whole lot of blame on Davis. The continued inconsistency of the offensive line has really hampered what our offense can do this year.

Defensive Coordinator: A+ This is the best coached Texas defense I have seen in my lifetime (started really following in 8th grade, 1995). The run defense has remained stout despite facing stronger running competition. The linebackers actually make tackles, and the DB's are still realizing their full potential. Pay Will Muschamp whatever he asks.

Positions:

Quarterbacks: B- Colt has not looked the same. I believe there are several factors at play here. 1. The offensive line continues to play like a group of guys who have never played together. 2. Because of the lack of protection Colt has been locking on to receivers more than I can remember since 2006. 3. We've been running this short route, no run game, quick passing attack for two and a half years now and defenses are starting to devise ways to defeat it. I believe that as the offensive line goes so goes Colt and the offense.

Running Backs: B Vondrell has been solid but continues to carry nagging injuries which has kept him from building on a solid opening couple of games. Newton looks really comfortable in our scheme, but hasn't been able to build on his good two game stretch because of a mild concussion. Fozzy Whittaker is our most explosive back, but is just getting going this season because of reoccurring knee injuries. Cody Johnson, the fall camp starter, has just gotten back into the mix because of an early injury that caused him to fall back behind the other four guys. Then there is DJ Monroe who has looked explosive against non-BCS competition, but hasn't been a meaningful part of the offense since week 2. Overall, just a bunch of oft injured backs who can't seem to get into any sort of rhythm. However, when there are holes to run through they look good. For Fozzy, he's been able to get to the corner even when there isn't a hole available. I think we can be successful with a mix of any of these guys IF the offensive line can get it together. (Are we seeing a recurring theme here?)

Wide Receivers: C+ It's hard for me to give the group as a whole a grade any higher than slightly above average. Shipley has been playing at an All-American level. Buckner has been a pleasant surprise at the flex TE position when they let him run a route other than a five yard hook. Marquise Goodwin had a great catch and run for the winning TD yesterday. And that's about it for the positives. This was supposed to be one of the strong points of our team, but as a group, they have not produced. Inconsistency, miscommunication, dropped passes, and sulking heads have plagued the other receivers who get playing time. I don't need to name names. Okay, maybe I'm being too negative on the other guys. Never mind, I thought about it, and I'm not.

Tight Ends: NA I'm not really going to give EBS a grade for his two safety valve catches against OU. He did catch the ball though. That's got to merit some sort of improvement.

Offensive Line: D We knew this group was not going to be full of consensus All-Americans, but it was thought that because of their experience, they would play as a good unit. Hix, Tanner, Huey, and Snow have not looked like experienced BCS conference linemen. A lot of people blame their failure on the zone blocking scheme. I am of the position that players need to be held responsible for what they do on the field. If these linemen cannot run the scheme properly, then we need to either lose the zone blocking scheme as a whole, or start recruiting some linemen who can block properly in it. The offensive line has not consistently controlled the line of scrimmage in any game save UTEP (I guess they did okay against ULM). This lack of control has caused the whole offense to stutter. The lack of time to throw has made Colt look human. The lack of holes in the run game has resulted in Greg Davis abandoning it for long stretches of the game. Frustrating. Thinking about this makes me want to take a break. I'll finish the defense later.

I've added a poll for you to vote for the most frustrating thing so far this season.

Poll

What has been the most frustrating thing about the 2009 Longhorns?

Offensive Line incompetence

58 votes

Greg Davis' playcalling

30 votes

WR inconsitency

6 votes

Lack of a true go-to RB

4 votes

We've won all the games. I'm not frustrated.

12 votes

110 votes | Poll has closed

New SB Nation Stuff

aaronlybrand — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:16:49 -0000

Hey Peter Bean (aka PB),

You had mentioned the other day that SB Nation made you change your user name because of some new changes that were going to be happening with the site. I read some new things about it on the main page and was wondering how this will affect us over at BON. Will we be able to access any new features? I know things are busy with the game coming up tomorrow so you can get back to us early next week. We'll understand.

Weber St. @ Wyoming Recap

aaronlybrand — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:36:11 -0000

Everyone expects that the Longhorns will stroll up to Laramie and put a whipping on the Cowboys this Saturday afternoon. Wyoming has been one of the worst FBS programs over the last decade, but took a step in the direction of mediocrity this past weekend. For anyone interested in the recap and box score of the Wyoming game click on the link below:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=292482751

On offense Wyoming more than doubled its point total average from last season thanks to former Mizzou Offensive Coordinator turned Wyoming Head Coach Dave Christensen. Muschamp and the Horns defense should have a jump this week in game-planning as Texas dominated Missouri's offense a season ago.

The Cowboys intercepted five passes on defense and ended the game with a +4 turnover margin. With all that being said they only managed to win the game by seven points.

The spread offenses run by Christensen and Mike Leach are different, but I think this week gives us a great tune-up for the Red Raiders the following Saturday. At the least it will afford some in-game experience for our younger DB's now thrust into action because of the NCAA problems Deion Beasley and Christian Scott are still dealing with.

Hook 'em.

Texas Tech in '09

aaronlybrand — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 20:05:51 -0000

Texas Tech in '09

Does anyone know why we are slated to play TTech so early this upcoming season (Sept. 19)?

12 Bowls of Christmas

aaronlybrand — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 19:37:58 -0000

12 Bowls of Christmas

Vote to see the two famous Longhorn comebacks: '06 Rose, '01 Holiday

2008 Pass Defense

aaronlybrand — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 18:55:50 -0000

PB's recent post on Texas' statistical numbers created some spirited comments about the Texas pass defense. People were saying we are worse than Washington and Washington St. while others were defending Will Muschamp and this young secondary as a good yet not great pass defense. Most of the conversation was based on the simple statistic of pass defense which measures the amount of pass yardage given up by a team. This statistic can be extremely misleading as it takes no account into what kind of opponents a team plays. Some offenses only throw the ball 20 times a game while others (most in the Big 12) can throw the ball between 30-60 times a game. This skews most Big 12 pass defensive statistics into making it look like no one even plays pass defense in this conference. We have actually watched the games this season and know that this is not the case. I remember reading an interview with Muschamp from earlier in the season in which he was quoted as saying that he didn't care how many yards we game up passing as long as our yards given up per attempt was around 5. This is the statistic we should all be looking at to show us how good/not good our pass defense has been this year. YPA shows you how well a team defends each individual pass regardless of how liitle or much a team throws the ball on offense. I took a look at these statistics and they matched up pretty well with what you see when you watch Texas and other top teams on defense this year.

At the top of the list you will find some of the names you would expect to see: #1 USC - 4.3 (probably the best defense I've watched on TV this year regardless of how inferior their opponents tend to be), #2 Ohio St. - 5.1, #4 Alabama - 5.3, #8 Florida - 5.6, and tied for #13 Penn St. and South Carolina - 5.7 a piece. From watching several games from each of teams I can see that their defenses are extremely good. In fact Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are ranked #39 & #47 respectively. Take a look at these teams ranks in YPA vs. Pass Def.

Team/YPA/Pass Def.: USC/1/1, Ohio St./2/8, Alabama/4/31, Florida/8/17, Penn St./13/10, SC/13/4, OU/39/92, OKST/47/111.

From these numbers you can see how playing good offenses that throw the ball with regularity can really make you look bad in pass defense as evidenced by OU and OKSt. However, if you look at the yards given up per attempt, you can clearly see that OU and OKST's pass defenses are not THAT much worse than the top pass defenses in the nation. In case you were wondering Texas' line would look like this: Texas/71/110. These numbers show me that although many around the country think our pass defense is non-existent we are only slightly below average in YPA at 7.0. I wouldn't classify that as good by any means. Muschamp wants us to be around 5 and we're not even close so I'm sure he is not at all pleased with our pass coverage. In the earlier conversations someone was trying to make the point that our pass defense was worse than Washington and Washington St. This is not so. It might look like it if you take only pass defense ratings (UW - 87, WSU - 33, TEX - 110), but if you look at YPA you will see that (as their records indicate) both UW and WSU are terrible in pass coverage (TEX - 71, WSU - 97, UW - 117).

Now some will say, "We've played some of the best offenses ever in the history of college football" and that has to be taken into account. So for this I looked at YPA for each defense against only teams they played with winning records. Our numbers move up from 7.0 YPA to 8.0 YPA. Texas' line looks worse for the wear as you would expect, but our rankings don't change that much: Texas/77/114. Let's look at some of the other teams we looked at earlier.

Washington and Washington St. still stink as their lines look like this against opponents with a winning record: WU/108/83, WSU/103/35. You might hear some "experts" say "They don't even play defense in the Big 12. Now take a look at Washington St. They know how to play pass defense. Look they're ranked 35th in the nation in pass defense against teams with winning records." Your rebuttle, "Wow (with extra sarcasm), I see they also give up 9 yards every time another team even attempts a pass against them. I really wish my team knew how to play defense like them."

What about the top teams? Are they just posers as well? Well let's take a look: USC was tops in both catagories against everyone, but how do they fare against better competition? Their new line against opponents with winning record still shows they are very good against the pass: USC/1/5. Here are the other team's lines (again using the standard TEAM/YPA/YPG passing): Ohio St./6/22, Alabama/14/70, Florida/9/16, SC/9/12, Penn St./36/61, OU/36/92, OKST/53/119.

If you take the time to really digest those numbers you realize that YPG given up passing really means nothing as a barometer as to how good a pass defense is. Does anybody really think that OKST has the WORST pass defense in the nation? According to YPG against teams with a winning opponent they are. Now I'm not trying to say they are great at pass defense, but they certainly aren't the worst I've seen this year. I've seen all of these teams play a few games a piece (some more, some less). After watching USC, Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, and Penn St. play, I thought they had pretty good if not great defenses and the YPA stat backs up my peepers. I also thought after watching OU, OKST, and Texas play, that their pass defenses were prone to the occasional big play, but adequate (certainly not crappy). I've also seen Washington and Washington St. play a few games and thought their defenses were crappy. Possibly lower than crap if there could be such a thing. And the YPA stat backed me up on that too.

5.0 YPA seems to be the gold standard as only USC at 4.3 (against all opponents) and 4.6 (against opponents with winning records) bests that mark. Texas has a long way to go to beat that mark, but with a few more years of seasoning maybe we'll get there. If it doesn't look like our coverage has improved that much since 2006 it's because our numbers are basically the save in the YPA catergory: 2006 - #86 7.5 YPA, 2007 - #67 7.0 YPA, 2008 - #71 7.0 YPA. Our rank has moved around a little bit, and we have improved slightly over 2006, but our YPA remains at 7. There may be hope though. In 2007 we gave up 7 YPA with mainly upperclassmen in the secondary. This year our number hasn't changed, but we are playing people with about the same experience level as those upperclassmen of a year ago, but with years to grow and mature. I hope this has been enjoyable to read and easy to understand. All stats were pulled from cfbstats.com.

Aaron