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Jul 15, 2008 Jun 01, 2012 36 1179
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Minorleagueball.com's Top 120 Prospects List
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/24/2821479/minor-league-ball-baseball-top-120-prospects-for-2012
There are six Boston prospects in there (Bogaerts, Barnes, Middlebrooks, Jacobs, Lavarnway, Cecchini, in that order), with only four teams having more (Toronto, Oakland, SD, and St. Louis).
Check out the comments section for minorleagueball.com's usual high level of analysis, with more comments to come over what's likely to be an extended discussion.
For the AL East, the Yankees look about right to me, as do Boston's prospects (with a lot of them making the list, though, it's a great acknowledgement of Boston's depth), Baltimore looks about right too, but Toronto's d'Arnaud and TB's Lee are probably too low.
What do you folks think?
Baseball America's Top 100
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2012/2612998.html
I'm sure that the OTM bloggers will have their own post up shortly, but if y'all wanted a place to discuss the list, here it is.
AL East-wise, I think Lavarnway should have been in there (he made minorleagueball.com's community list and KG's list, and it's tough to argue with a 25-HR major-league-ready 1B/DH with a potential to catch), and Hak-Ju Lee and Travis d'Arnaud are too low for my tastes.
What do you folks think?
Who Are Your '08 Draft Winners? Kneejerk Fun!
We should wait 10 years before analyzing a draft, but who wants to analyze the '98 draft? Let's do this one before the ink dries. Who came out as winners? Who lost? Who are your heroes, who are your villains? (I'm guessing someone will pick Boras.) What players did well, what players didn't? Who had the best draft, who had the worst?
Mostly I want your opinions, but here are a couple of mine.
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Cabrera and Willis to the Tigers - close!
Per Rotoworld:
MLB.com is reporting that the Tigers are set to acquire Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins for Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and four more prospects.
Rick Porcello is going to be awfully lonely as the only member of Detroit's farm system next year. If true, this puts the Tigers right back among the elite in the AL and further swings the balance of power between the leagues. Detroit will have to hope to find a taker for Brandon Inge, who is owed $18 million over the next three years.
Update: the total package for the Marlins is Miller, Maybin, C Mike Rabelo, RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio de la Cruz and RHP Dallas Trahern.
Wow, that would be some lineup.
I'm sure I'm messing up this lineup a bit, not being a Tigers fan, but imagine something like this:
Granderson
Polanco
Cabrera
Ordonez
Sheffield
Guillen
Renteria
That's crazy talk.
BA Milwaukee Top 10 (leaked)
Found this online at http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=689389
Apparently, it was released a coupla days early by one of the guy's who helped with it. Anyway, here it is:
- Matt LaPorta, OF
- Manny Parra, LHP
- Alcides Escobar, SS
- Jeremy Jeffress, RHP
- Matt Gamel, 3B
- Cole Gillespie, OF
- Brent Brewer, SS
- Angel Salome, C
- Lorenzo Cain, OF
- Caleb Gindl, OF
Bill Stoneman steps down too? @!#$ the heck?
What's with GMs this year? Did someone get hold of an illicit photograph with all of them in it?
I've never been the biggest fan of Stoneman, given he hasn't managed to maximize his prospects very well, but with his lack of major moves, he also hasn't made any major mistakes. I wonder if we'll hear why he stepped down.
It's strange, a lot of GMs leaving the position without being fired...
Per Rotoworld:
Bill Stoneman is stepping down as the Angels' general manager and taking a consultant role with the team.
According to CBS Sportsline, the Angels are leaning towards going with their director of player development, Tony Reagins, as his their successor. Still, it'd be a surprise if they didn't at least check in with Walt Jocketty first. The Angels have reached the postseason four times in the last six years under Stoneman.
Selig Sort of Willing to Listen on Instant Replay
Selig Will Let GMs Make Recommendation on Instant Replay
At their Nov. 5th-8th meetings, the GMs are likely to decide to recommend or not recommend instant replay to the commissioner. At which point Bud Selig will either say, "I agree, we shouldn't have instant replay," or "I disagree, we shouldn't have instant replay."
Will baseball ever implement it? Should baseball ever implement it? Could baseball ever get a comissioner who looks more like a sausage pizza?
Discuss.
John Schuerholz steps down. WOW.
Ken Rosenthal, via Rotoworld:
The Braves have called a Thursday press conference for 3:30 p.m. EST, with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reporting that general manager John Schuerholz is expected to step down.
According to Rosenthal, long-time assistant Frank Wren is likely to replace him, but this is a big blow to the Braves. Schuerholz is a no-doubt Hall of Famer and one of the most successful GMs in baseball history.
All I can say is, wow. This is the end of an era, a much bigger story than Joe Torre potentially leaving (the big story now), and probably bigger than any GM leaving in recent history. If Schuerholz is leaving on his own, that's a shame, and if he's being pressured to step down, it's an even bigger shame. No idea which it is yet, or why. Hopefully more info after the press conference.
Updated 6:24PM: Final Draft Order
This is the final order, assuming the Giants hold on to their 7-run lead. Final, that is, before FA compensation this offseason. Remember that in case of a tie, the tie-breaker is the previous year's record. So Kansas City gets the 3rd spot over the equally-bad Orioles because they had a worse record the previous year.
Here's the complete order, now with loss totals:
1. Tampa Bay 96
2. Pittsburgh 94
3. Kansas City 93
4. Baltimore 93
5. San Francisco 91
6. Florida 91
7. Cincinnati 90
8. Chicago (AL) 90
9. Washington 89
10. Houston 89
11. Texas 87
12. Oakland 86
13. Saint Louis 84
14. Minnesota 83
15. Los Angeles (NL) 80
16. Milwaukee 79
17. Toronto 79
18. Atlanta 78
19. Chicago (NL) 77
20. Seattle 74
21. Detroit 74
22. New York (NL) 74
23. Colorado 73
24. Philadelphia 73
25. San Diego 73
26. Arizona 72
27. Los Angeles (AL) 68
28. New York (AL) 68
29. Cleveland 66
30. Boston 66
Clay Buchholz nearly taken out for pitch counts?!
Sorry to overload the Clay diaries, but I found this fascinating. Quotes are my paraphrases.
Theo Epstein was ready to force Francona to take Buchholz out if he reached 120 pitches. He ended up at 115 pitches, but what if he hadn't had a superefficient last two innings? His career high was 94 pitches (I think), and he was at 92 after 7 innings. So he had 28 pitches to complete the next two innings. "He couldn't go that many above his career high," quoth the Boy Wonder.
Theo said that the kid's career came before any individual accomplishment, and told Francona after the 7th that if he reached 120 pitches, Tito was to take Buchholz out, and he was allowed to make it known it was Theo's fault. "I told him he could blame me." Fortunately for everyone but the Os, Baltimore made some quick outs. Extra important perhaps was Brian Roberts getting caught napping at first and picked off an inning earlier.
What do you guys think of the whole thing? As a minor league fan, I heartily applaud Theo having the guts to be willing to protect the kid's arm even if it would have a sh!tstorm of negative media (and fan) attention. As a guy who used to live in Boston, I can tell you that talk radio there would've gone INSANE. But it would've been the right decision, right? Right?
Even as a big fan of protecting arms in the injury nexus, I'm still not sure I could do that.
2010 Red Sox Lineup - Why Not?
C - Likely to be a FA. Guys like Kottaras and Still and Egan have a chance, but not much, especially on a team that expects to contend.
1B - Youkilis/Anderson/Carter/FA Youkilis is likely to be moved back to 3B after Lowell leaves, Anderson may not be ready then (though he is in High A now), and I'm not a huge Carter fan. Also likely to be a FA.
2B - Pedroia, so long as he keeps performing
3B - Youkilis, although he's in a serious slump in the young career of a not-that-young player, and when he's over 30 and expensive he may not be worth it. Middlebrooks won't likely be ready then, either. Possibly another FA.
SS - Lugo, if he ever turns it around. No other internal candidates, so maybe the Sox continue their game of Musical Shortstops and get another one.
LF - Manny, if they keep picking up his $20 million options. It was questionable whether he was worth it before this year, doubtful he'll be worth it after this year's performance. No other internal candidates.
CF - Crisp. He's got a pretty friendly contract. Though for that same reason, if the Sox think Ellsbury's ready, they would find plenty of takers for Crisp.
RF - Drew. See Lugo comment above.
DH - Ortiz, so long as he can stay healthy.
SP1 Beckett
SP2 Matsuzaka
SP3 Buchholz
SP4 Lester
SP5 Wakefield/Bowden/Masterson/Hagadone/FA
RP1 Papelbon
RP2 Delcarmen
RP3 Bowden/Masterson/Hagadone
Notes: This is an excellent young rotation (expect for Wakefield if he's still around making his $4 million). Same with the bullpen, though who knows with the average lifespan of a reliever.
On the other hand, this is an old lineup, with Pedroia and Crisp being the only ones under 30, and Crisp barely at that. Could be Ellsbury in CF, giving them still only two genuinedunder-30 hitters. Sox will need either some young impact hitting prospects or trade for some youth/sign some youth to still have an effective lineup at this point. On the other hand, their rotation will be cheap (well, in seriously relative terms), costing something like $35 million, with a similarly cheap pen, leaving them over $100 million for the lineup if their payroll stays at its current level. Here's hoping they spend it wisely.
Ranking Systems and Drafts by John's Grades
I ranked all 30 systems based on John's letter grades from his book (printed with permission). I also ranked the '06 drafts accordingly. My methodology was as follows: 1 point for every C+, 2 points for every B-, 4 points for every B, 8 points for every B+, 16 points for every A-, and 24 points for every A. As you can see, I weighted top-end talent pretty heavily. But some teams were able to rank very highly without any elite prospects, through a lot of depth. Please feel free to disagree with my methodology, as it does very much favor teams like the Royals, who have more depth than I thought but mostly have the best three prospects on any one team. Anyway, here are the teams with their rankings and scores, separated into easily separated tiers:
- Tampa Bay Devil Rays 115 (wow)
- Colorado Rockies 87
- Arizona Diamondbacks 84
- Kansas City Royals 82
- Minnesota Twins 76
- New York Yankees 73
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 67
- Los Angeles Dodgers 66
- Boston Red Sox 66
- Cleveland Indians 64
- Milwaukee Brewers 63
- Cincinnati Reds 58
- Houston Astros 58
- Atlanta Braves 57
- Detroit Tigers 51
- Florida Marlins 51
- New York Mets 50
- Texas Rangers 48
- Chicago Cubs 43
- Toronto Blue Jays 42
- Baltimore Orioles 42
- San Francisco Giants 38
- Oakland Athletics 38
- Pittsburgh Pirates 36
- St. Louis Cardinals 36
- Chicago White Sox 35
- Washington Nationals 31
- San Diego Padres 29
- Seattle Mariners 28
- Philadelphia Phillies 27
- Detroit Tigers 21
- Boston Red Sox 20
- Los Angeles Dodgers 19
- San Francisco Giants 18
- Tampa Bay Devil Rays 18
- Washington Nationals 18
- Arizona Diamondbacks 17
- Kansas City Royals 16
- Minnesota Twins 15
- New York Yankees 15
- Baltimore Orioles 14
- Saint Louis Cardinals 13
- San Diego Padres 12
- Seattle Mariners 12
- Pittsburgh Pirates 11
- Cleveland Indians 9
- Oakland Athletics 9
- Texas Rangers 9
- Toronto Blue Jays 9
- Atlanta Braves 7
- Houston Astros 7
- Milwaukee Brewers 7
- Colorado Rockies 6
- Philadelphia Phillies 6
- Florida Marlins 5
- Los Angeles Angels 5
- New York Mets 5
- Chicago Cubs 4
- Cincinnati Reds 4
- Chicago White Sox 3
Who the #*@$ is Devern Hansack?!
Does anyone have any more info on Devern Hansack? I know nothing about this guy but his numbers, and I unfortunately missed his 5 inning no-hitter on the last day of the major league season. I know he's old (29 in February), from Nicaragua, and his minor league stats, and that he's been mentioned as a candidate for the closer's role this year (!), and that's it. Does anyone know what he throws or, better yet, have a scouting report for him? Or even where the Sox got him? Any help is appreciated.
Anibel Sanchez throws no-hitter against D-backs.
I feel a little bitter my Sox traded him, but not so bitter I can't root for the guy. Feel some ownership of him too, since he was a Sox prospect, and one of my favorite young pitchers.
And now he's done it! First no-hitter in the majors in over two years. Final line:
9 IP, 0 Hs, 0 ERs, 4 BBs, 6 Ks, 0 HRs What do you guys think of this accomplishment? A little fluky? He hasn't K-ed a ton of guys early in his career, but he did go into this start with a .227 BAA. What kind of future does he have?
Jonathan Sanchez doing quite well against Reds through 5
5 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hs, 2 BBs, 5 Ks.
He did allow three SBs, including a double steal. He clearly tired in the fifth, as his line through four was:
4 IP, 0 ERs, 0 Hs, 1 BB, 3 Ks.
But he got out of the jam, and so far it's been an excellent first ML start, even if against an offensively struggling Reds team.
Do people think he could join the good young SP of the Giants? What do you think of his future?
Sanchez will likely finish the season under the 50 IP mark, where does he rank in an otherwise barren Giants system? After Lincecum, surely; is there anyone else in contention for #2?
EDIT: Final line, 5.2 IP, 3 Hs, 1 ER, 2 BBs, 7 Ks, 0 HRs
BP's Top 20 RHP
Here's the link: BP's Top 20 RHP The list is as follows. What do you guys think?
- Phillip Hughes
- Homer Bailey (who Goldstein refers to as "1a")
- Nick Adenhart
- Luke Hochevar
- Tim Lincecum
- Yovani Gallardo
- Mike Pelfrey
- Adam Miller
- Eric Hurley
- Jeff Niemann
- Humberto Sanchez
- Kevin Slowey
- Will Inman
- Phillip Humber
- Brandon Erbe
- Carlos Carrasco
- Hayden Penn
- Clay Buchholz
- Deolis Guerra
- Wade Davis
Michael Bowden
Tyler Clippard
Sean Gallagher
Brandon Morrow
Mark Rogers
Michael Bowden called up to High A; Where does he rank?
Of course, his first start was ugly:
5 IP, 9 Hits, 5 ERs, 1 BB, 3 Ks, 0 HRs
Where do people rank Bowden right now? In the Top 100? Whereabouts?
Clay Buchholz, meanwhile, has made two excellent starts for the High A Wilmington Blue Rocks so far, with this line:
11 IP, 6 Hits, 3 Runs, 2 ERs, 3 BBs, 16 Ks, 0 HRs
Also exciting news for Red Sox fans (and Wilmington fans, who have had no good pitching prospects to follow all year), Bryce Cox has started his pro career with 11 excellent relief outings in High A:
21.1 IP, 11 Hits, 4 Runs, 2 ERs, 7 BBs, 22 Ks, 0 HRs, 1 HB
Lars Anderson signs with Red Sox
Per the 2pm chat with Jim Callis:
Joey(Boston, MA): Hey jim, a big fan of ur column its been a miserable 3 weeks for us now...any goods news on the draft side..ala are Lars anderson, bard and laporta[have heard that he is returning to school] any close to signing. and also any other unsigned draft picks for the sox that are expected to sign.
Jim Callis: (1:58 PM ET ) We haveb't posted the story on the web yet, but Lars Anderson (one of the better high school hitters in the draft, fell to the 18th round) has agreed to terms with Boston. He still has to pass a physical before he officially signs. The Red Sox are confident they can sign Daniel Bard, who hasn't attended class today as far as I know. Matt LaPorta is back at the University of Florida.
Jim Callis' Top 6 Minor Leaguers
Here are Jim Callis' off-the-top-of-his-head list of top 7 (?) minor leaguers, for those, like me, who are starved for lists. I generally like Callis a lot and trust his opinion.
- Stephen Drew
- Delmon Young
- Justin Upton
- Alex Gordon
- Brandon Wood
- Cameron Maybin
- Troy Tulowitzki
Also interestingly, he said that Jose Tabata was close to Maybin, that he'd take Homer Bailey over Phillip Hughes (if barely), and that he'd take the Red Sox' Bryce Cox over the Yankees' J.B. Cox. This last one especially surprised me, as even as a Sox homer, I'd take J.B. from what I know, given the longer track record.
Well? What do you think?
Pelfrey likely to make start on Saturday.
All indications are that Pelfrey will likely be given Pedro Martinez's start on Saturday, according to many sources, including Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus. Reportedly, it's hardly definite, but it seems that the Mets have him as the number one choice to make the start.
So: is he ready? What line do you expect out of him? Will this help or hinder his development? In general, what do you guys think of this move?
Yankees sign Dellin Betances, not likely to get Francisco Pena
The Yankees "agreed to terms with Brooklyn right-hander Dellin Betances, who was taken in the eighth round of this year's draft. It's believed the Grand Street Campus High School product landed more than a $1 million signing bonus. He will report to Tampa and pitch in the Gulf Coast League." Cashman says Betances has the highest potential of any pitcher they drafted.
http://www.nypost.com/sports/yankees/yankees_enticed_by_power_of_jesus_yankees_george_king.htm
The same article says that the Nationals are the frontrunners for Francisco Pena, Yankee bench coach Tony Pena's son, a catching prospect.
Jered Weaver up to take his brother's place.
The Weaver is dead; long live the Weaver.
Per Rotoworld:
Angels recalled RHP Jered Weaver from Triple-A Salt Lake.
Weaver, who made his last start for Salt Lake on Wednesday, will replace his big brother in the rotation effective immediately. If he was dropped in your mixed league, grab him now. He went 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA during his first stint with the club.
Jeff Weaver DFA'd. Per Rotoworld:
Angels designated RHP Jeff Weaver for assignment. Jered Weaver is being called up to take his place in the rotation. After getting a one-year, $8.325 million contract from the Angels in the offseason, Jeff Weaver was 3-10 with a 6.29 ERA in 16 starts. He'll almost certainly be traded before he becomes a free agent. The Angels won't be afraid to pick up a portion of the $4 million+ he's still due in order to get some help.
DePodesta Joins Padres!
Per Rotoworld:
Padres named Paul DePodesta special assistant for baseball operations.
DePodesta, who was fired as the Dodgers' GM over the winter, returns to baseball with one of the club's rivals. He should be a signficant asset as an assistant. If he was a failure as a GM, it was because of his people skills, not because of problems judging talent
AL East versus AL Central - Discuss!
Obviously, the Sox (both of them), the Tigers, and the Twins are all on ridiculous hot streaks at the moment, but, it's come up in debate here which division is stronger, the AL East or AL Central.
I would outline this debate as being between the strong teams, not a question of whether it's worse to have the Royals in your division or the D-Rays and Os. And not a question of who will be stronger in the future (sorry, Rays fans), but who's stronger this season.
The AL Central's four good teams are so far kicking the East's three good teams' collective arse in winning percentage, but:
Using BP's 3rd order winning percentage, which is a little complicated but basically derives a would-be/should-be winning percentage from a team's raw offensive and defensive numbers, the East is winning (or, at least, the top 3 are):
NYY .601
BOS .586
TOR .582
DET .592
CHA .563
CLE .547
MIN .508
Now, I don't believe that 3rd order WP takes into account non-SB baserunning, i.e. taking extra bases on hits, something that, as a fan, I know the Sox are below average on. But I believe it takes SBs into account. Also, by definition, it doesn't involve how good a team is at winning close games, which is pretty much exactly how regular winning percentage differs from third order. So, for instance, Boston may be overplaying thier 3rd order WP because of the ability to put Papelbon in in a close game and shut the door. And, of course, the immortal question of "clutch" is not taken into account here.
Also, you have to ask whether the current play that the four streaking teams are showing is more indicative of their overall ability or whether the earlier part of the season (terrible for the Twins) is closer to the Real Thing.
Something else to consider, of course (though I don't put much stock in this) is head-to-head matchups. Being a Red Sox fan, I know we beat the Tigers 2 out of 3 (as did the Yankees, 3 out of 4), but Boston was also swept by the Twins near or at the start of MIN's current streak (after which Boston hasn't lost). How much stock do you put into this?
Hopefully that's enough to get the juices flowing.
Okay.
Ready.
Set.
GO!
P.S. Don't just vote, tell me why! I knew it was a mistake to include a poll question...
Chuck James' first ML start going very well.
Through 7, he's got this line:
8 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 4 BBs, 8 Ks, 1 error committed behind him (and one hit that at least the Braves announcers believe should have been another error). 111 pitches, and he's (hopefully) done for the day.
Personally, I've always been a big fan, but I figured he'd struggle more in his first start. Thoughts on his future?
EDIT: Oops, didn't realize he'd gone back out for the 8th, thought his day was done. Fixed.
Heilman for Lugo?
Per Rotoworld:
The Tampa Tribune reports that the Devil Rays may try to trade for Aaron Heilman, likely offering the Mets Julio Lugo in return.
Heilman would likely start immediately in Tampa Bay and New York could use Lugo at second base. The two teams are also reportedly talking about a smaller deal involving Heath Bell.
Seems a pretty fair trade to me, but don't the Mets need MORE pitching, not less? What are your thoughts?
Red Sox Closer?
If Foulke doesn't cut it, in terms of effectiveness or just ability to take the mound, who takes over? It seems like indications lately are that it would be Jonathan Papelbon. But if (or "when" according to many) a starter goes down, who makes the starts? Lenny DiNardo? If Papelbon makes starts instead, who closes? Timlin, Tavarez? Do you bring up Hansen despite his grand total of 16 pro innings? I get the impression the Sox are not yet willing to throw him into the fire.
Answers should be in short essay format. You have 50 minutes. GO.
Brian Bannister - New Mets Fifth Starter
Apparently, the Mets don't have enough confidence in Aaron Heilman, or perhaps they don't have enough confidence in him as a starter (he certainly did much better in relief last year). This does give NY a better bullpen, but having a rotation of Pedro-Glavine-Trachsel-Zambrano-Bannister is... well, a little less than intimidating (Pedro aside, of course, assuming he's even healthy).
What do people think? Good move? Bad move? Who would be the better starter in '06, Bannister or Heilman? Does moving Bannister into the rotation now and having him perhaps take some lumps help the Mets in '07 and beyond?
Rays turning down Gathright for Olsen?
Per ESPN.com:
"The Devil Rays aren't as likely to part with speedy outfielder Joey Gathright as they were last month, The Palm Beach Post reports.
The Marlins were interested in trading pitcher Scott Olsen to acquire Gathright, but the Devil Rays reportedly have been unimpressed with Olsen this spring."
Wouldn't you still make that trade if you were the D-rays? In a heartbeat? No matter how poor Olsen's ST is? A very good pitching prospect (which the D-rays need) for a merely good OF prospect (which the Rays really, REALLY don't need).
Joey Gathright is neither a Joey nor a Gathright. DISCUSS.
Odd Trade Rumor
Probably nothing to it, but I heard today from a quite unsubstantiated source that there was a three-way trade being discussed between the Mets, Nats, and Red Sox. Sounds like rumor mill crap, but take it for what it's worth.
Red Sox send Matt Clement and Alex Cora to the Nationals, who send Livan Hernandez and Jose Vidro to the Mets, who send Lastings Milledge and Xavier Nady back to the Red Sox.
IMO, this trade makes the most sense for the Sox (give up two relatively unneeded guys for a top-ten prospect), some sense for the Mets, and little sense for the Nats. The only way it makes sense for the Mets is that they're in win-now mode, so the rotation upgrade of Livan and the 2B upgrade of Vidro would definitely help them this year. They have made a lot of prospects-for-win-now-vets this offseason, so it's not TOTALLY out of the question, I suppose. And the only explanation for the Nats is that Clement is an upgrade over Livan (stuff-wise, but obviously not durability-wise or command-wise), and they have two 2B in Vidro and Soriano. Though of course they'd be better off trading the vastly-overrated Soriano. Perhaps most importantly, it can't be forgotten that the Nats are owned by Larry Lucchino and Fred Wilpon.
So I suppose it's not an absoutely terrible move for the Nats, and is a good(-ish) trade for the Mets and a great move for the Red Sox.
Which probably means it was all dreamed up by the Boston media/fans.
Tawk amongst yourselves.
P.S. I suppose the Mets are stocking up on Latino players, too.
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