SB Nation User Blog: acerimusdux

Jerry Mannuel Q & A

acerimusdux — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:27:15 -0000

Jerry Mannuel Q & A

Q: I don't know how many days you spent in the Arizona Fall League, but can you give your observations of Davis, or just whoever you saw there?

JERRY MANUEL: I only stayed there for two days, so I can't say that I can give you an evaluation. But I did like the arm strength. Again, if I come in and say, Hey, the emphasis is on throwing strikes and you're a young pitcher, then that's one of the things that obviously you are going to have to prove me or prove to us that you can do.

I'm not interested in 98, 99; I'm interested in strike one and strike two. So with that being said, hopefully he can get his stuff together, because I understand he's got electric stuff. But that doesn't do any good if you're not throwing the strikes. You hate to -- again, we have to be patient with those types of arms and those types of situations, especially where we are now as an organization.

AAOP: What does AAOP stand for anyway?

acerimusdux — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:33:44 -0000

OK, here's my plan:

Trade Carlos Beltran to the New York Yankees for Brett Gardner
Trade Brad Holt and Jeurys Familia to the Marlins for Dan Uggla
Trade John Maine for Kelly Shoppach
Trade Louis Castillo and $5M to the Cubs for Aaron Heilman
Trade Bobby Parnell and Brian Stokes to the Reds for Aaron Harang
Trade Dan Murphy to the Orioles for Felix Pie
Sign free agents Matt Holliday, Nick Johnson, Jason Marquis, Rafael Betancourt, and Juan Uribe

Lineup: Reyes, Pie, Wright, Holliday, Johnson, Uggla, Pagan, Shoppach

Bench: Francoeur, Gardner, Cora, Carter, Santos, Uribe

Rotation: Santana, Harang, Marquis, Pelfrey, Perez

Pen: K-Rod, Betancourt, Heliman, Feliciano, Misch, Nieve

Beltran for Gardner

This move makes sense to both teams for me. I don't trust Beltran's knees much at this point in CF, even when healthy he's probably not a better than average defender anymore. And I'd just rather spend that $18M elsewhere, on a younger player like Matt Holliday. Beltran has a no trade clause, and wants to stay in NY, but would likely accept a deal to the Yankees. This also likely would keep the Yankees out of the bidding for Holliday. Gardner is a solid young CF who plays good defense, and I can use him along with Pagan, Martinez, and another trade aquisition (Felix Pie) as an option to cover CF for me.

Holt and Familia for Uggla

Uggla is about a +3 to +4 WAR player who will only make maybe $7M. The Marlins are looking for young pitching in return. Plenty of other teams are interested as well, but this might be as good a fit as the Marlins are likely to find. Some other teams are looking to move Uggla off 2B, which would hurt his value. For the Mets, he could solidify the 2B spot for several years to come. Uggla seems to get a somewhat undeserved bad rap on the defensive end, where he's a bit below average, but not enough to even think of moving for me considering the value of his bat. UZR has him -2.9 runs per 150 games and Total Zone has him -5.5 runs per 1200 innings. But he'll be about +15 runs offensively for the position in the same time. I also think his bat has not yet peaked; there are improvements there in plate discipline over the last 2 years which will pay future dividends. He had a career low BABIP in 2009.

Maine for Shoppach

Both of these guys have been mentioned as potential non-tenders, but that seems very unlikely for both, as both are too valuable for that. Shoppach was a bit of a letdown in 2009, but he's still a young catcher with a career .776 OPS in over 1000 PA. Maine was a disappointment last year as well, but should be healthy in 2010, and has some pretty good career numbers himself for a young pitcher. Cleveland has some depth in catching prospects and considers Shoppach expendable. And they are another team looking for low cost young starting pitching. This looks like a good match to me for both teams.

Castillo for Heilman

The Mets would certainly pick up some salary to move Castillo, and the Cubs seem very interested, as they are looking for more OBP near the top of their lineup. Heilman is another guy who has been mentioned as a potential non-tender, so I think it might be possible to get him included in return for picking up some of that salary. Heilman got off to a rough start last season, but over the second half was beginning to look more like his old effective self, allowing only a .243 BA, a .727 OPS, and a 1.1 WHIP after the all-star break.

Parnell and Stokes for Harang

With Harang owed $12.5M/yr for the next two, and the Reds needing to shed salary, his trade value may be reasonable. On the other hand, Ollie Perez's similar contract makes Harang look like a steal at that price. Harang is coming off two seemingly middling years in wins and runs allowed, but he's a guy who throws strikes, and gets a good number of swings and misses. Really he's a solid #3 SP who could pitch up even to a #2 type SP numbers in Citifield. I don't really know if this will be enough to persuade Cincinnati, but I don't want to give up too much here, as there are too many other options at this price.

Murphy for Pie

The Orioles have some outfield depth with Jones, Markakis, and Reimold, confinig Pie to 4th OF status. So they might be willing to deal him. Pie is a solid defensive CF with good tools and a quick bat. He only has a .688 OPS for his young career so far, but broke out in the second half last season with an .842 OPS in the second half. In the long run, I believe in this kid's bat, and think he'll be a solid starter. Maybe I'm being unrealistic in trying to get him for Murphy, but the Orioles are in need of a 3B, and I do think that might be Murphy's most natural fit.

Matt Holliday

Holliday will likely get more years than he's worth, but as long as the final bill is under 6/110M I think he's probably worth it. I really need a middle order bat here, especially if I'm dealing Beltran, and I'm much more comfortable relying on Holliday to be healthy and continue to produce for that money. The Mets have some money to spend and this is the best guy available this offseason. He gives you solid defense in LF while adding another David Wright level bat to the lineup.

Nick Johnson

If I'm parting ways with Delgado, and making Holliday and Uggla my top offensive additions, I'm really going to need one real professional left handed bat in the middle of that lineup to add some balance, and Johnson is the best available. The Mets have some promising young lefties coming along, but Johnson is a guy you can drop in the middle of a lineup that includes Wright, Holliday, and Uggla, and pretty well guarantee yourself some monster run production. He has had some trouble staying healthy, but when on the field he's been a lock for a .400+ OBP, with decent pop. I'm not too worried about the missed time, as I've got Chris Carter as a LF/1B guy, in addition to Fernando Martinez and Ike Davis waiting in the wings for opportunities to get at bats. Down the road, I'll be hoping for Davis to take over the 1B spot, allowing me to save the money I'm spending on Johnson, but for now Johnson could hold down the spot well for the next 2 years.

Jason Marquis

Marquis is a solid reliable mid-rotation SP who was born on Long Island and happens to actually want to be a Met. He's been a steady average SP over the last 23 years. Statcorner.com, using tRA, has him at +1.8,+1.5, and +2.2 WAR for the past 3 seasons. Fangraphs, using FIP, has +1.7, +1.8, and +3.8. He's probably not really as good as last years numbers, but a solid average +2.0 WAR might be a reasonable expectation. That's worth $8M-$9M a year for a couple of seasons.

Rafael Betancourt

I really didn't want to be spending money on relief pitching here, but I ended up needing to use a lot of young pitching as trade chips, and don't really have enough in the pipeline yet to expect to fill those holes. If I'm spending the money though, I'm going for quality and getting a reliable set up man. It is not yet clear whether Betancourt will be available. The Rockies have a $5M option, which they should really just pick up, but they are trying to save money by negotiating a 2-year deal at a lower rate. I generally don't like spending money on older relievers, but Betancourt has plus stuff across the board per pitchFX, and never seems to have had a problem throwing strikes. And with all the other FA moves I'm making, I won't lose too much in the way of a draft pick this year even if the Rockies offer arbitration.

Juan Uribe

It's possible someone else will offer a starting spot somewhere, but if Uribe has to settle for a bench role, I would hope there's a chance of luring him here. I'm certainly briging back Alex Cora as well, for another $2M deal, but a few million more on Uribe would be money well spent, and would really help solidify a productive bench.

Poll

How would you grade the above plan?

0. Trade Beltran?? DIE!!!

33 votes

1. Wow, trading Beltran is stupid, but at least it's not as bad as last year when you wanted to trade Reyes

14 votes

2. I've seen worse, but that's still a mediocre team that will win about 84 games

3 votes

3. Pretty good plan, I like a lot of these ideas

1 votes

4. Awesome job, you should really be a GM!

2 votes

53 votes | Poll has closed

Eric Niesen highlight video

acerimusdux — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 04:35:17 -0000

Eric Niesen highlight video

Mets Draft Suggestions

acerimusdux — Fri, 30 May 2008 03:03:26 -0000

I'm the Mets "scouting director" for John Sickels's mock draft over at minorleagueball.com on Saturday. I though I'd post here and ask if anyone has any suggestions about who they'd like the Mets to draft. I'm not necessarily looking to mimic here what the real Mets might actually do, I'm more interested in what would you do if you had those picks.

I already have a pretty good idea what I'll do with the first 2 picks. I expect the first dozen names off the board in this draft to be the consensus top 10 (the same 10 as in BA's latest mock), plus Hunt and Wallace. After that, the high school pitchers all look set to go, Hicks, Martin, Odorizzi, Melville, and Cole. There's a chance one of those will fall, if someone takes Collier. I might take a HS pitcher there (I think Cole is the one who will fall), and a bat I like at 22, but I probably won't take Friedrich. Anyway, I think I have worked out who I want at those spots. More wide open as far as possibilities is pick 33. So I've decided to do a poll on the people I expect will be available there.

But I'm also looking for suggestions for later picks. We're going 5 rounds, so I have picks at #18. #22, #33, #68, #100, #134, and #164. As an aside, I noticed Baseball America had a couple of local college pitchers, Scott Barnes of St. John's and Bobby Lanigan of Adelphi, ranked at #128 and 129. Should I consider either of these guys in round 5? Anyone know anything about them?

The guys I'm looking at for pick #33 are Tyler Sample, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Allan Dykstra, and James Darnell (click names for scouting reports and video).

Thanks!

Update:

Thanks guys. Our first three picks were:

18. Jason Castro
22. Ike Davis
33. Brett DeVall

I didn't realize DeVall would still be there at 33. So I took him.

Poll

Who should the Mets take in the supplemental round of the draft?

Tyler Sample

0 votes

Tyson Ross

0 votes

James Darnell

0 votes

Allan Dykstra

4 votes

Andrew Cashner

5 votes

9 votes | Poll has closed

MOD: Mets

acerimusdux — Mon, 12 May 2008 23:27:14 -0000

OK Mets fans, here are our picks:

18.
22.
33.
68.
100.
134.
164.

Any suggestions on who we should be looking at? With 2 picks close together in the first round, we're looking at pretty much the same pool of talent there for both. We should be able to get something good there in this draft.

I'm open to any suggestions, and I'll probably poll you guys for those first few picks as far as who we want to target. And, I may post something over at the SB Nation Mets fan site Amazin' Avenue as well. It will maybe be less hectic over there, and we'll be able to get more Met fan feedback.

Also, mtk52983 has volunteered as Assistant Scouting Director. So if I'm not available on draft day, he can pick, or if a new board needs to be made, or some such, that's fine too.

Finally, I did run one of these before, back in 2005. I wanted to draft Brandon Snyder. My team wanted Jacoby Ellsbury. We drafted Ellsbury. Ellsbury is now tearing up the majors and playing a great CF, while Snyder has been moved to 1B and is struggling in A ball. So if I have any bad ideas, pleas do your best to talk me out of them.

Thanks,

Poll

Who should the Mets Pick?

Ethan Martin

5 votes

Christian Friedrich

8 votes

Gerrit Cole

9 votes

Brett Wallace

10 votes

Conor Gillaspie

3 votes

Reese Havens

1 votes

Jason Castro

2 votes

Ryan Perry

0 votes

Jemile Weeks

8 votes

46 votes | Poll has closed

Minor League Playoffs

acerimusdux — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 16:17:42 -0000

Alot of playoff finals starting today. Discuss. Matchups, schedules, and links below.

Update [2007-9-12 14:31:14 by acerimusdux]: Winners of each game have been bolded

AAA Paific Coast League Finals
Sacramento River Cats vs New Orleans Zephyrs
Game 1 - 9/11 Sacramento at New Orleans; Shane Komine vs Adam Bostick
Game 2 - 9/12 Sacramento at New Orleans; Michael Madsen vs Dave Williams
Game 3 - 9/14 New Orleans at Sacramento; Jason Vargas vs Brad Knox
Game 4 - 9/15 New Orleans at Sacramento
Game 5 - 9/16 New Orleans at Sacramento

AAA International League Finals
Richmond Braves vs Durham Bulls
Game 1 - 9/11 Richmond at Durham; Jeff Bennett vs J.P. Howell
Game 2 - 9/12 Richmond at Durham; Blaine Boyer vs Jeff Niemann
Game 3 - 9/13 Durham at Richmond; Jae Seo vs Francisley Bueno
Game 4 - 9/14 Durham at Richmond
Game 5 - 9/15 Durham at Richmond

AA Eastern League Finals
Akron Aeros vs Trenton Thunder
Game 1 - 9/11 Akron at Trenton; Adam Miller vs Tyler Cippard
Game 2 - 9/12 Akron at Trenton; Chuck Lofgren vs Chase Wright
Game 3 - 9/13 Trenton at Akron; Alan Horne vs Jeremy Sowers
Game 4 - 9/14 Trenton at Akron
Game 5 - 9/15 Trenton at Akron

AA Southern League Finals
Huntsville Stars vs Montgomery Biscuits
Game 1 - 9/12 Huntsville at Montgomery; Sam Narron vs Wade Davis
Game 2 - 9/13 Huntsville at Montgomery; Corey Thurman vs Jacob McGee
Game 3 - 9/14 Montgomery at Huntsville; Chris Mason vs Derek Miller
Game 4 - 9/15 Montgomery at Huntsville
Game 5 - 9/16 Montgomery at Huntsville

AA Texas League Finals
Springfield Cardinals vs San Antonio Missions
Game 1 - 9/11 Springfield at San Antonio; Josh Greer vs Mitchell Boggs
Game 2 - 9/12 Springfield at San Antonio; Cesar Ramos vs Cory Rauschenberger
Game 3 - 9/14 San Antonio at Springfield; Wade LeBlanc vs P.J. Walters
Game 4 - 9/15 San Antonio at Springfield
Game 5 - 9/16 San Antonio at Springfield

A+ California League Semi-Finals
Game 4 - 9/11 San Jose Giants at Visalia Oaks (San Jose wins series 3-1)
Game 4 - 9/11 Lancaster Jet Hawks at Lake Elsinore Storm (Lake Elsinore wins series 3-1)

A+ Carolina League Finals
Frederick Keys vs Salem Avalanche (Frederick wins series 3-1)
Game 4 - 9/11 Frederick at Salem; Chorye Spoone (10-9, 3.26) vs. Polin Trinidad (2-1, 2.89)
Game 5 - 9/12 Frederick at Salem; TBD

A+ Florida State League Finals
Clearwater Threshers vs. Brevard County Manatees
Game 4 - 9/11 Brevard at Clearwater (Thrashers win series 3-1)
Game 5 - 9/12 Brevard at Clearwater

A Midwest League Finals
Beloit Snappers vs West Michigan Whitecaps

A South Atlantic League Finals
West Virginia Power vs Columbus Catfish

Poll

Who will win the Bricktown Showdown (between AAA champions) on 9/18?

Sacramento River Cats

4 votes

New Orleans Zephyrs

3 votes

Richmond Braves

1 votes

Durham Bulls

8 votes

16 votes | Poll has closed

Best Rule 5 Draft Prospects?

acerimusdux — Mon, 04 Dec 2006 22:42:43 -0000

Anyone have any ideas about who the best rule 5 draft selections might be this year? First off, please do not post any subsciber info here from sites like baseballamerica.

The following site has a list of possible rule 5 picks:
http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=273&p=2&c=597256

But I thought the community here might be able to produce a better list. Anyone who knows their own favorite team's farm very well can probably figure out the most vulnerable guys in that system.

As for who's eligible to be drafted this year, it mostly comes down to anyone not on the 40 man roster, who was:

a> Drafted or signed in 2003, and over 18 (generally all college players from that year's draft), or...
b> Drafted or signed in 2002 or earlier.

So make your suggestions below.

Here's a few I think are eligible:

KC Donald Murphy 2B
KC Tyler Lumsden LHP
ATL Brandon Jones OF
NYM Jesus Flores CA
Update [2006-12-4 19:44:12 by acerimusdux]: OK - so, I've been informed in the comments I was wrong on all four. Lumsden i just misread when I looked him up, Murpy was traded last week, the other two I was wrong because of a rule change I wasn't aware of. The clock now starts with the players first minor league season, not when he signs.

MOD: Chicago Cubs II

acerimusdux — Wed, 01 Jun 2005 06:00:13 -0000

I'm taking over as Scouting Director, since Phiago can't make it on Sunday. And I really need some help!

I thought I'd start with a poll of some guys who might be available around pick number 20 in round 1. Also, maybe give me a list of your top 5.

I'll post a couple more questions tomorrow, with some guys we should be looking at in the next couple of rounds.

Thanks!

Update [2005-6-2 16:52:58 by acerimusdux]:
I'm not sure how this will work, but I changed the poll for a kind of runoff of the top 5 candidates. OK - that didn't work. Unsurprisingly, you can't change the poll. So I'll do a runoff below instead.

Update [2005-6-5 1:1:0 by acerimusdux]:
The draft starts at 1:00 PM CST (2:00 where I am here on the east coast.) Teams are limited to 2 minutes a pick, but it looks to me like it will take at least about a minute a pick. I'll be here for the whole thing, and I'll keep this thread open in a seperate window, so I can check on it in case anyone wants to make suggestions here during the draft. I'd guess things will be particularly interesting around 2:20-3:20 CST, as my guess is we'll have three picks in that time (probably within about a half hour). Thanks!

Update [2005-6-5 20:10:17 by acerimusdux]:
Well here's what we got:
1.(20) Jacoby Ellsbury OF 6' 1" 175 L/L Oregon State 9/11/83
2.(68) Trevor Bell OF/RHP 6' 2" 180 L/R La Crecenta HS, CA 10/12/86
3.(100) Jensen Lewis RHP 6' 3" 185 R/R Vanderbilt 5/16/84
3.(108) Ryan Mullins LHP 6' 6" 175 L/L Vanderbilt 11/13/83
4.(130) Brian Hernandez CA 6' 0" 210 R/R Vanderbilt
5.(160) Jemile Weeks 2B 5' 9" 150 B/R Lake Brantley HS, FL 1/26/87 - brother of Ricky

Poll

Who should the Cubs take in round 1?

Cliff Pennington

8 votes

Mark McCormick

2 votes

C.J. Henry

2 votes

Brandon Snyder

4 votes

Trevor Crowe

4 votes

Colby Rasmus

5 votes

Jacoby Ellsbury

7 votes

Matt Torra

4 votes

Taylor Teagarden

1 votes

Cesar Carrillo

1 votes

38 votes | Poll has closed