• joined Jan 10, 2009
  • last login Jun 18, 2014
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I'm a husband and a daddy, a user interface designer, and a baseball saberhistorian.

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User Blog

Re-introducing the Hall of wWAR: The Hall of Fame Re-populated by a Mathematical Formula


It was just over eight months ago that I released the Hall of wWAR (a version of the Hall of Fame re-populated by a mathematical formula). Today I bring you an updated version (based on reader...

Ron Santo, Ken Boyer, Luis Tiant, and Minnie Minoso Should Be in the Hall of Fame


The Baseball Hall of Fame released the "Golden Era" ballot. What does wWAR feel about the candidates?

Vote: The 50 best players not in the Hall of Fame, 2011 edition


I loved Graham Womack's list last year. He's looking to expand the participation in 2011. Please head over and leave a comment if you'd like a ballot. I'll be putting my almost-finished updated wWAR to hard work on this one!

What Would He Get Today?: Dwayne Murphy


With free agency just around the corner, Beyond the Box Score is about to heat up with Hot Stove talk. As you all know, I like to talk about all the latest stats—but from a historical angle (e...

David Freese's Game 6 WPA Highest in Postseason History


David Freese's .953 Win Probability Added in Game 6 was the best ever in Postseason history.

wWPA: Weighted Postseason Win Probability Added


Not all postseason series are equal. wWPA gives extra credit to top performances in the LCS and World Series.

For the First Time: National Association Pitching WAR Leaders


There's one gap in Baseball-Reference's historical Wins Above Replacement: there's no pitching WAR for the National Association. Today, we fix that.

Mariano Rivera: King of Postseason WPA


How good has Mariano Rivera been in the playoffs? His postseason WPA is more than three times greater than any other player in history.

Hurt by Their Era: 19th Century Pitchers, WAR/162, and wWAR


After looking at how short schedules in the 1800s adversely affected position players, now we look at the effects on pitchers.

Were the Best Closers Just Failed Starters?


Were the best closers just failed starters? This week, Rob Neyer pointed out that Mariano Rivera never actually did fail as a starter. How about the other elite closers in history?

Hurt by their Era: The Effect of Shorter Seasons on Career Value


Is it possible that playing in an era of shorter seasons cost Cap Anson 70 career WAR? See what happens when you normalize all seasons in history to 162 games.

Dustin Pedroia vs. Little League


Ever wonder how Dustin Pedroia stacks up against the best of the best? Meaning, the best Little League players in the country?

Hurt (and Helped) by the Defense


Here are the pitchers in history who were hurt and helped the most by the defenses behind them. Not only are wins a team stat—to a lesser extent ERA is, too.

World Series Win Probability Added Leaders


Who are the all time leaders in WIn Probability Added (WPA) in World Series games? Some will be obvious (Yankees), while others may surprise you.

Cheap Wins vs. Tough Losses


Who earned the most "cheap wins" since 1919? Who suffered the most "tough losses"?


Tough Losses

In 35.1% of his losses, Robin Roberts allowed three earned runs or less in seven or more innings (a slightly stricter version of the quality start). Gaylord Perry was victimized more (in terms of...


History's H/9 Leaders: An Eclectic and Interesting Bunch

The other day I was looking at the all time leaders in hits per nine innings pitched on Baseball-Reference.com. I went there knowing that Nolan Ryan was first all time, but the list of names I saw...

Least Value Accumulated Through Age 30, Hall of Fame Pitchers

  1. Dazzy Vance (-0.7 WAR)
  2. Hoyt Wilhelm (5.3 WAR)
  3. Jesse Haines (7.8 WAR)
  4. Early Wynn (10.1 WAR)
  5. Red Faber (10.2 WAR)

Least Value Accumulated Through Age 30, Hall of Fame Position Players

  1. Sam Rice (13.2)
  2. Rick Ferrell (15.8)
  3. Phil Rizzuto (16.5)
  4. Earl Averill (17.0)
  5. Bill Terry (17.6)

Most 6+ and 3+ WAR Seasons, Retired Non-Hall of Famers

Now that I've had some time to reflect on the Hall of wWAR a bit more, I decided to shift my focus (temporarily) from the players who exceeded the Wins Above MVP (6.0 WAR) and Wins Above Excellence...

A pitcher's success depends upon many circumstances, some of which are beyond his own control, so...


A pitcher's success depends upon many circumstances, some of which are beyond his own control, so that, no matter how faithfully or intelligently he may work, he must still suffer from the annoyance and mortification of defeat.

John Montgomery Ward in "Base-Ball: How to Become a Player" (Published in 1888)

When They Lost It: Near-Perfectos and the Inning They Were Broken Up


Click for a kinda-interactive version Anibal Sanchez's recent near no-hitter got me thinking. And that's a good thing, since time to think about baseball history has been tough to come by lately...

Brady Anderson Was Not Alone


Last week, the folks over at Baseball-Reference released a new feature for the Play Index that I've wanted for a long time—the ability to perform a search within a specific group of players....

The Future of the Hall of wWAR


Now that Manny has retired, which other active players are still reaching for the Hall of Fame -- and who has a realistic shot?

The Devil Rays ROI in the 2006 is $107 million. So far.


Our very own J.D. Sussman posted some 2006 draft research over at Bullpen Banter. What I like about this is it factors in draft bonuses the team spent, giving a true return on investment. Awesome work. Evan Longoria. The gift that keeps on giving.

The Unique Career of Ruben Sierra


Not too long ago, in a post about Nomar Garciaparra's peak, I wrote: I can't find another player who packed so much of his career value (94.8%) into a half dozen seasons. Welp, I found one. If...

Adjusting the Hall of wWAR: Pitchers' Batting Value


It's been a couple of weeks since the Hall of wWAR was announced and it's become pretty clear to me that the initial "induction" may have been a first draft. There have been a number of...

Top Sub-.500 Pitchers, by Baseball-Reference's WAR

  1. Bob Friend (48.9 WAR, 197-230, 107 ERA+)
  2. Bobo Newsom (45.9 WAR, 211-222, 107 ERA+)
  3. Jack Powell (44.5 WAR, 245-254, 106 ERA+)
  4. Tom Candiotti (41.0 WAR, 151-164, 108 ERA+)
  5. Ted Breitenstein (39.1 WAR, 160-170, 110 ERA+)

The Brady Anderson of Defenders


Blah, blah, blah. Brady Anderson. We still hear about his crazy 50-homer season in 1996, even today. It's the poster child for steroid-powered peaks. Of course, there's no evidence on Anderson. And...

Some "Teams" Based on the Hall of wWAR


As I was putting together the Hall of wWAR, I kept myself amused by putting together a few "teams" from the pool of players I had before me—a team of Hall of Fame snubs, best to miss the Hall of...

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