So I know the whole TFLN shtick belongs to somebody else, but since it didn't get posted last week and I need my fix, I thought I'd throw one up here for your consumption.

First, and best, was between me and an aggie friend currently living in Colorado.

(aggie): Tough loss yesterday, Ags, but BTHO Arkansas!

(me:) I hear "BTHO" has been updated to "Bend The Hell Over (for)" in honor of your new conference home.

(aggie): That was a mass text...didn't mean to include you.

(me:) No kidding, dumbass. I think the meaning of "GTFO" remains the same.

We are not close friends.

Continue reading this post »

Will Muschamp is on the record as saying that scoring defense is the only statistic he cares about (at least, I'm pretty sure that's on the record). So in a few bored moments at work this afternoon, I did a little research and worked up a ranking of Big XII teams' scoring defense.

Rather than just use points allowed, though, I used a few different factors: The total number of opponent drives, the number of FGs allowed, and the number of TDs allowed by the defense (i.e. excluding pick-sixes and kick returns, fumble returns, etc). This eliminates non-offensive scoring, which shouldn't be counted against the defense.

The rankings do not account for short fields, opponents' rankings, strength of schedule, phase of the moon, or any other rubbish. The defense's job is, after all, to keep the other team from putting points on the board - which dovetails nicely with Muschamp's credo that scoring defense is the only thing that matters.

Continue reading this post »

As of today, Jeff Sagarin's BCS rankings look like this:

1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Boise St.
4. Alabama
5. ou
6. USC
7. LSU
8. TCU
9. Oregon
10. Arkansas

There are a number of notable things about this list, not the least of which is that The University of Texas is in the very first position. Also noteworthy:

• Boise St. ain't in the big dance
• Florida is ranked higher than Alabama
• Remove USC (due to NCAA sanctions), and you can add Ohio State to the list at number 10
• Nebraska is nowhere to be found (they crack the top 20 at...number 20)

I know it's early, but it's still fun. And as notsofst points out below, the computer rankings are only a part of the overall BCS formula. And as PB points out below, Sagarin's is only one of said rankings. As I said at the beginning of this sentence, I know it's early, but it's still fun.

Source here. You're looking for the "ELO_Chess" rankings in red on the far right.

Sometime during the middle of the season, amidst all of the "Boise! No, wait - TCU! No, scratch that - Cincinnati!" hoopla, I decided to work up my own FBS ranking system. This is just for grins, mind you - I'm not planning on trying to get it added as a component of the BCS or anything.

Briefly, my "rank reasoning" is as follows:

• Winning is what counts. Therefore, a win over an FBS school is good for one point. Non-FBS schools don't count.
  
• Winning on the road is harder than winning at home. Therefore, winning a road game is worth 1.5 points.
• Winning by one is not the same as winning by twenty-one. Therefore, winning by more than one possession (>8 points) is worth 1.25 points, and winning by more than two possessions (>16 points) is worth 1.5 points.
• The quality of the opposition matters. Therefore, some portion of a team's opponents' point totals must be added to that team's point total.

Now, this last point is tricky. The first time through, I simply added each team's opponents' point totals to the team's total, but this produced some weird results - like, for instance, Baylor being ranked ahead of Florida. Oops.

So, I tweaked the formula, and in its current incarnation, the top ten (after the bowl games) looks like this:

1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. TCU
5. Boise State
6. Nebraska
7. Ohio State
8. Oregon
9. VaTech
10. Penn St.

As you can see, there are still a few "oops" rankings in there - Texas/Alabama, TCU/Boise St., but eight of these ten teams match the final AP top-ten (not necessarily the numerical rank, but the choice of team).

I have not, as far as I know, included any bias toward the 'Horns; there are literally a thousand numerical score results, variables, and formulas on my big honkin' spreadsheet, and I don't think I've tilted any of them toward Austin. Why is Texas, then, ranked ahead of Alabama?

• Both get 13 points for wins (Bama played one non-FBS school).
• Both get 7.5 points for road wins.
• Bama gets 5 points for 1-possession wins; UT gets 2.5
• UT gets 13.5 points for 2-possession wins; Bama gets 10.5
• Bama gets 23.35 points for their opponents; UT gets 23.9
• Total: Bama 59.35 to UT 60.4

SEC trolls will balk at the two-possession wins and opponents' point totals, citing the "strength of the SEC" as a factor. Unfortunately, the point totals for the SEC teams don't substantiate the claim that it's a particularly tough conference to play in.

What I'm looking for from you, fellow BON'ers, is some input on my ranking logic, including your own suggestions for improvement or "what-if" type factors.

FYI...

Mike Leach Suspended

Apparently not being nice to his [semi-famous] players. Craig James complained that his son was mistreated by the coach. Texas Tech University has suspended him indefinitely while they investigate (including their bowl game). Defensive Coordinator Ruffin McNeil will serve as interim coach until the investigation is complete.

Wonder if this is the beginning of the end for Leach? It's no secret that he's not all that happy with TT, and I'm not sure how happy they are with him, either. The mad pirate persona is entertaining for a while, but eventually, you just start to look like a buffoon - and that rubs off on the institution.

All of that having been said, I do love me some Mike Leach press conference quotes.

I've spent pretty much my entire day massaging statistics to make myself feel better about the championship game (sorry, boss). Unfortunately, what I came up with ain't pretty. This is my first attempt at one of these types of comparisons, so bear with me. For what it's worth:

Offense vs. Opponents' Defense

• Against the best scoring defense the teams faced, Bama scored 32 points (UF #1) and UT scored 13 points (NU #3). (Rank: Bama #2, UT #7) Verdict: Alabama. More points versus a better defense.
• Against the best rushing defense the teams faced, Bama rushed for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns (UF #14), and UT rushed for 67 yards and 3 touchdowns (UCF #4). (UT #1, Bama #2) Verdict: I’m calling this one a draw. First, our “best opponent” was ranked #4, versus their “best opponent” at #14. Second, although they rushed for more yardage, we had the same number of scores. Third, we don’t even pretend to care about running the ball.
• Against the best passing defense they faced, Bama passed for 239 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions (UF #3), and UT passed for 127 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception (OU #22). (Bama #7, UT #23) Verdict: Alabama. Nearly twice the yardage and no interceptions versus a much better defense.
• Against the best total defense they faced, Bama put up 490 yards and 32 points (UF #4), and UT put up 269 yards and 16 points (OU #7). (Bama #2, UT #3) Verdict: Alabama. Again, nearly twice the yardage and twice the points versus a better unit.

Defense vs. Opponents' Offense

• Against the best scoring offense the teams faced, Bama gave up 7 points (Arkansas #8), and UT gave up 24 points (TT #9). (UT #3, Bama #26) Verdict: Alabama. They gave up less than one-third the points we did, versus a better (albeit barely) unit.
• Against the best rushing offense the teams faced, Bama gave up 88 yards and no touchdowns (UF #9), and UT gave up 134 yards and 1 touchdown (OSU #24). (Bama #12, UT #55) Verdict: Alabama. Gave up fewer yards and no scores versus a better unit.
• Against the best passing offense they faced, Bama allowed 191 yards, 1 touchdown and came down with 1 interception (Arkansas #10), and UT gave up 420 yards, 3 touchdowns, and came away with 1 interception (TT #2). (UT #14, Bama #84) Verdict: Alabama. Gave up less than half the yards and 2 fewer scores, although their opponent at #10 wasn’t quite up to par with our #2.
• Against the best total offense they faced, Bama gave up 335 yards and 13 points (UF #12), and UT gave up 532 yards and 39 points (TAMU #5). (UT #20, Bama #35) Verdict: Alabama. They did a better job, giving up fewer yards and one-third as many points in their biggest game of the year, although, again, their opponent at #12 wasn’t up to snuff with ours at #5.

Head-to-Head Comparisons to Make You Feel Better

• UT scores more points (40.7 vs. 31.7) against nearly the same caliber defensive competition (Bama 54 vs. UT 59).
• UT makes more first downs (315 vs. 272).
• While Alabama averages over 5 yards per carry rushing, they do so against rushing defenses ranked #71. UT averages over 4 yards per carry against defenses ranked #47.
• UT has more rushing touchdowns (28 vs. 27).
• UT has more interceptions made (24 vs. 20).
• UT has more punt returns (4 vs. 1) and kickoff returns (3 vs. 0) for touchdowns.
• UT has caused more fumbles (24 vs. 16) and recovered more fumbles (11 vs. 6).
• UT has a higher 3rd-down conversion rate (46% vs. 41%).
• UT has a higher red-zone success rate (93% vs. 85%).
• UT has a higher FG success rate (88% vs. 85%).
• UT has more tackles for loss (107 vs. 88).
• UT has more sacks (37 vs. 30).
• While Alabama has a better turnover margin (+16 vs. +12), UT has a better turnover margin versus ranked teams (+4 vs. +1).
• Ten of UT’s thirteen opponents had a higher-rated offense than ten of Alabama’s opponents.
• Six of UT’s thirteen opponents had a higher-rated defense than six of Alabama’s thirteen opponents.

All of that having been said, it is important to note that everything shown above is objective; it's a cold-hearted, robotic look at both teams' past performance. But, much like the stock market, past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance. As has been noted elsewhere, Alabama basically spent the last 365 days preparing to play Florida, and they went into the Georgia Dome and rolled. They played a nearly perfect game.

The Longhorns, on the other hand, have spent the last 365 days preparing to play in Pasadena. They haven't really played a "complete" game all season, and in fact have appeared to coast through pretty much all of their games, OU, TAMU, and NU included.

Alabama has nowhere to go but down. The 'Horns, hopefully, can still take a big step up and put together their first (and only) complete game of the season, giving us one dominant performance in the only game that really matters to any of us at this point.

So, subjectively, I have faith that Mack will pull it all together and trot a better product out onto the Rose Bowl turf (which, incidentally, we own) to square off with Alabama (who, incidentally, we also own). Cody ain't Suh; McElroy ain't Jerrod. I believe that if Alabama comes onto the field in Pasadena expecting to see the same Texas team they've seen for the last two weeks, they are going to be quite shocked at the whirling ball of butcher knives they run into.

From today's "What Bowl Game Would You Like to Go To?" post over at the I Am The 12th Man blog:

If we played in the Texas Bowl, we'd face a Navy team featuring the flexbone offense. The advantage there is that the whole "former military school playing a current military school" storyline would really appeal to the media.

I am wondering: Do the aggies understand that they are not, in fact, a military school? Do they understand that they are the only university in the country with a standing corps of cadets (snicker), but no actual affiliation with an actual branch of an actual military service?

More importantly, do they understand that they could be matched up against the national champions of the under-twenty lingerie football league in a game that kicks off at midnight on New Year's Eve from Yankee Stadium, and it wouldn't appeal to the media because Texas A & M football is crappy and irrelevant? Do they understand that, if it wasn't for Texas, the game Thursday wouldn't even be on television because who the hell wants to come to College freaking Station?

Or are they just that mind-bogglingly stupid?

(In the interest of full disclosure, I should tell you that I found myself banned from their little blog today, which I find funny because I haven't posted over there in a couple of weeks, and I don't recall being particularly nasty when I did post. Whatever. After Thursday, I don't have to think about aggies for a whole year.)

Interesting post over at www.cfbstats.com about intimidating stadiums. Apparently, our own DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium ranks first among FBS schools in terms of opposing teams' penalties attributed to "crowd noise and hostile atmosphere in the home team's stadium."

The top five are Texas, Missouri, Utah, Miami (Fl.), and VaTech. Kyle Field isn't in the top ten. I guess that's to be expected when your stadium is 20% empty on game-day.

Tim Tebow apologized Monday for shucking the media after his dismal performance on Saturday, proving once again that he is the greatest leader in the history of...well, history. Clearly buckling under the pressure of leading the Florida Gators football team - itself the greatest assemblage of football warriors ever to grace the field - Tebow sulked around the locker room until most of the media had left, and then quietly slipped off into the night, eager to return to work on the off-field passion that consumes him: Editing the Holy Bible for factual errors.

Continue reading this post »