SB Nation User Blog: afh4

The Indians and Free Agent Starting Pitchers

afh4 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:27:08 -0000

Staff ace Justin Masterson.

12 different pitchers started games for the 2009 Cleveland Indians with Fausto Carmona leading the staff with 24 starts, despite spending part of the season with Indians' farm clubs. In creating the 2010 staff and its depth options, a number of the '09 starters will not be in the picture.

Totally Out Of The Picture

Cliff Lee (22 starts in '09)
Carl Pavano (21 starts in '09)
Zach Jackson (1 start in '09)

Two of those guys pitched their way out of Cleveland and the other one, well, he sort of pitched his way out as well. I don't know what Zackson's MLB future holds but it almost certainly won't be much starting.

On The Outskirts of the Picture

Scott Lewis (1 start in '09)
Anthony Reyes (8 starts in '09)
Tomo Ohka (6 starts in '09)

It's unlikely these guys collectively make more than a handful of starts for the Indians next year. Lewis and Reyes both have significant injury concerns (as well as Lewis not currently being rostered) and Ohka, a deep, deep depth option in 2009 that was pressed into duty, is unlikely to return based on his lackluster performance.

The 2010 Indians Starters!

Fausto Carmona (24 starts in '09)
David Huff (23 starts in '09)
Jeremy Sowers (22 starts in '09)
Aaron Laffey (19 starts in '09)
Justin Masterson (10 starts in '09)
Carlos Carrasco (5 starts in '09)
Jake Westbrook (0 starts in '09)
Hector Rondon (0 starts in '09)
Yohan Pino (0 starts in '09)

It seems likely that, barring injury, the Indians will open with a rotation including Westbrook, Laffey and Masterson with Carmona, Sowers and Huff battling for the final two spots. There will probably be an opportunity for Carrasco or Rondon to win a job out of ST but it will be an uphill battle. This scenario assumes the Indians don't make a signing which, to me, seems unlikely. The Indians probably have about enough depth to sit on their hands but the gamble of a low-risk, high-upside pitcher who could either help a suddenly coalescing young club contend or, more likely, turn into a prospect at the deadline, seems like too much to pass up.

The Indians have a real thing for free agent starters, with free agent pickups like Pavano, Paul Byrd, Jason Johnson, Kevin Millwood and Scott Elarton all starting a significant number of games for the Indians since 2005. The Indians have excelled at identifying and signing veteran starters who end up being major contributors to the club. Their skill in this area has paid dividends beyond just on-field production: their ability to rehabilitate careers has earned them both goodwill with future free agents and an occasional prospect, namely Pino who was returned for Pavano and Mickey Hall, the big prize in the Paul Byrd deal (kidding).

So, with a remarkably low payroll entering 2010 (my back of the napkin has them around $60 million), how could the Indians spend a few (2-6) million and get something decent for it? A list of 2010 FA starters is available here for your browsing.

Bartolo Colon

Colon will be 37 this year and pitched late last season with the White Sox. There was, frankly, not a lot to like about Colon's numbers last year-he had SO/BB ratio of 1.81 and his FIP was over 5. The upside here is that Bartolo was coming off of an elbow surgery in Chicago and he was sort of effective in Boston in '08. The other upside, of course, would be watching Bartolo wear an Indians uniform. Maybe he could mentor young players regarding hotspots downtown.

Jose Contreras

Contreras, who might be 38 years old, was a tough luck pitcher in Chicago last year, posting a 4.14 FIP in contrast to his 5.42 ERA. Jose was dealt to Colorado for the stretch run and he was lights out as a reliever for the Rockies over 17 IP, posting a 1.59 ERA (and a 3.92 FIP, to flip-flop things). I'm pretty convinced Contreras could be a valuable pickup; since coming to Chicago, his FIP has hovered in the mid 4's and he's also got that whole wily Spanish-speaking veteran thing going on. Difficult to tell what the market for Contreras will be, though. A few years ago, a decent stretch run like this could turn into a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal. We're not a few years ago, anymore, obviously, but I wouldn't be shocked to see an NL team make him a decent offer to work as a reliever.

Jason Schmidt

Schmidt is expected to retire but, man, this one seems right up the Indians' alley.

Brad Penny

Penny put together a nice little run in San Francisco to end the season and, if he and his agent are smart, he ought to stay in the NL. However, Penny wasn't nearly as bad in Boston as he seemed according to FIP (4.59 v 6.08). If Penny wants to come back to the AL, he wouldn't be a bad fit in Cleveland if the Indians feel he's healthy.

Erik Bedard

Bedard can pitch if Bedard can stay healthy. This past season he posted a sub 3 ERA in his limited duty with a K:BB over 2.5. Bedard is a hot commodity with other know-nothings like me and for all I know the market for him is going to explode this winter. If you can get Bedard for something like a 1 year deal at 7 million with a club-option for a second season, I think you do it. Bedard's a type B free agent.

Other players fit the Bedard deal as well: Rich Harden and Ben Sheets, namely.

The Indians ought to also kick the tires on Chris Capuano, Rich Hill and Noah Lowry,

So, what do you think? Any of these guys? Anybody else? Anybody at all?

Lovullo interested in joining Acta's Staff

afh4 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 23:08:31 -0000

Lovullo interested in joining Acta's Staff

Per Castro.

The Hero Factory

afh4 — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 02:39:24 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Delievered to and now delievering for.

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I don't hate CC Sabathia the way I am supposed to. When I see him atop the mound at Yankee stadium, I'm not filled with anger and bile, I'm not tempted to use verbs like "waddle" and my blood does not boil. I understand that those things are supposed to happen, that my blood is supposed to elevate to such a temperature that I cannot contain my vitriol and I start cursing in Sicilian or something. I agree with the logic of those hypothetical emotions and I acknowledge them as appropriate and justified. Rationally, I know I'm angry with CC and with the Yankees and most of all with Bud Selig. Emotionally, though, that's not what I feel. I just feel sad.

It's like the latest version of Garden State a few months back where that Baz Luhrman-y guy intones:

This is not a love story. It's a story about love.

Baseball is steeped in myth as no other sport is, for obvious reasons. The heroes of yesterday's baseball resonate in a way that no other sport's heroes do: Babe Ruth is a candy bar, Bronco Nagurski is not. Joe DiMaggio married Marilyn Monroe, Paul Hornung married Mrs. Paul Hornung. Nat Clifton, Jackie Robinson. The powers that be in baseball will remind us of this powerful history whenever they have an opportunity: were the Indians in the world series we would be seeing grainy archival footage of the 1948 team and Joe Buck would be working to convince America that he had always admired the people of Cleveland more than the residents of any other mid-sized, midriff-loving, mid-western city.

So, if you grew up loving baseball you more than likely grew up loving its mythology. Fathers and sons is a tired, tired theme when it comes to baseball but it applies as well here as it ever has: many of us gathered around our modern-day campfires to watch Charles Nagy pitch and have tales of Rocky Colavito and Joe Charbonneau passed to us by our fathers. If we didn't have that experience, we invented it for ourselves later through diligence, researching both the players themselves and the emotions we were supposed to feel towards them. These myths become part of our fabric as fans. They are our collective shared experience and the vantage point from which we examine the future.

There's no question that the poorer franchises have always been bit players in baseball's story. Cleveland has never been Thor or Odin; it's lucky to be Ullr, god of skis and ring oaths. And Cleveland is fine with that. There is a level of pride in being the little guy, in not being New York, in representing a select few instead of an undiscerning multitude, in being ignored by the media sometimes because not so many people own television sets in Northern Ohio. This, I imagine, is what most Yankees' fans think everyone is so upset about: that they were born Odin and we were born Ullr. To some degree, they're right. However, the analogy lacks nuance; it's not simply that we are minor players in the universe of stories they dominate. It's that, more and more, we're not part of that universe at all.

Of late, Cleveland has gotten out of the business of being a minor part in a wonderful story and into the business of being the gentleman who colors the illuminated manuscripts. We are providing the colors and shading to the larger story with no narrative of our own to remember. Our narrative goes out the door with our heroes; factory workers don't reminisce fondly about the packages that head to the loading dock. Perhaps it's always been that way to some degree and it's simply become more obvious because of the remarkably depressing confluence events of this season. I don't know. All I know is that it feels terrible.

Leaving beside the business aspects of this whole sordid affair for a moment, what Cleveland has been forced to do three times over the past two seasons is trade away the center of its story. In Sabathia, Lee and Martinez, Cleveland had three compelling protagonists, three centers of myth that I could sit and tell my own sons and daughters about one day. And, stunningly, each of them is gone. The story I was going to tell my children is robbed of its center, gutted on the floor, its ending fouled up in ways unbelievably noxious. And, most depressingly, the stories of other franchises suddenly have new and wonderful heroes. Characters that simply appeared out of thin air, like a wonderfully hilarious new baby on a great sitcom! Loyal fans of other teams will never forget the magic of these players and one day they will sit around whatever the fireplace of 2031 is and tell their children wonderful stories about the incredible things that Sabathia and Lee (Game 1 starters, they'll call them!) did.

The Yankees and Selig and all the other complicit parties (self included, I suppose) have taken my love story and turned it into a story about love. I'll sit around my future fireplace with my future children and try to tell that story, maybe. More likely, if things haven't changed, I'll not tell any stories about baseball at all, ever.

Some players sent down told Lovullo they had lost confidence after being yanked in and out of the...

afh4 — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 04:54:32 -0000

Some players sent down told Lovullo they had lost confidence after being yanked in and out of the lineup or moved from position to position.

"I like to get a lineup and try not to change it," Lovullo said. "I'm big on team chemistry. I want players to know I have their back, that they can play relaxed and comfortable. ... But I expect an effort every day. This team can look different, act different and play different."

AP. Wonder what players Lovullo could be talking about?

Valentine's sit-down with the media.

afh4 — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 04:19:07 -0000

Cleveland Indians manager candidate Bobby Valentine

Valentine's sit-down with the media.

Fausto Carmona had indicated to the Tribe that he would like to pitch in the Dominican Republic,...

afh4 — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 17:07:11 -0000

Fausto Carmona had indicated to the Tribe that he would like to pitch in the Dominican Republic, but the Indians decided not to go that route.

Castrovince. Thought that was vaguely interesting.

Travis Hafner, Homeruns and Andy Marte

afh4 — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 19:25:41 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Travis trots.

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The argument has been made that September statistics are fundamentally different than statistics from the rest of the year. There's an obvious logic to this: as rosters expand and teams are eliminated, more, worse players begin to both pitch and hit as team's evaluate young players, give starts to AAA veterans and everyone generally becomes bored. It was in the spirit of considering statistics against weakened competition that I started to dig through the homerun logs for both Travis Hafner and Andy Marte. Will the signs of hope that we saw out of both players down the stretch translate into further success come April? Well, I don't know. But I did decide to see what kind of pitchers these two woebegone sluggers feasted on this season.

Andy Marte hit six homeruns for the Cleveland Indians in 2009:

#	Date	@Bat			Pitcher	Score	Inn	Out	Pit(cnt)Sequence	RBI	Play Description
1	2009-08-25	CLE	@	KCR	Zack Greinke	behind 0-4	t 6	0	2,(1-0) BX	1	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF)
2	2009-08-27	CLE	@	BAL	Jim Johnson	behind 3-4	t 9	2	6,(3-2) BBBCF>X	2	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF); LaPorta Scores
3	2009-08-29	CLE	@	BAL	Chris Ray	behind 1-2	t 6	1	7,(3-2) CBFFBBX	3	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF Line); Valbuena Scores; LaPorta Scores
4	2009-09-01	CLE	@	DET	Zach Miner	behind 4-8	t 6	0	9,(3-2) .BFCBFFFBX	1	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF Line)
5	2009-09-05	CLE		MIN	Scott Baker	tied 0-0	b 3	0	5,(2-2) CBFBX	1	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF-CF)
6	2009-09-26	CLE		BAL	Jason Berken	ahead 1-0	b 4	1	1,(0-0) X	2	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF); Hafner Scores

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/7/2009.

Looking at Marte's homeruns, the first thing I notice is that there's no argument as to where his power is: it's dead pull to left. More to our point, though, there doesn't look to be much counterfeit about Andy's power in 2009 outside of the obvious small sample caveat. The average AL pitcher in 2009 gave up 1.1 homeruns for every 9 innings pitched. Andy's victims gave up:

Zack Greinke	0.4
Jim Johnson	1.0
Chris Ray	1.1
Zach Miner	1.1
Scott Baker	1.3
Jason Berken	1.4

I don't see a story here. Marte took out a couple of really mediocre guys, a couple of decent relievers, a good pitcher with homerun issues and the best pitcher in the world. Most notable to me is the fact that all season, including in Columbus, Marte exhibited a pretty severe reverse-split, obvious here in the fact that, despite being a RHB, Marte got all six of his homeruns against righthanders.

Here's the same table for Hafner:

#	Date	@Bat			Pitcher	Score	Inn	Out	Pit(cnt)Sequence	RBI	Play Description
1	2009-04-09	CLE	@	TEX	Eddie Guardado	behind 7-12	t 9	0	2,(1-0) .BX	1	Home Run (Line Drive to Deep RF Line)
2	2009-04-10	CLE		TOR	Scott Richmond	ahead 2-0	b 3	2	3,(1-1) CBX	1	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF Line)
3	2009-04-12	CLE		TOR	Brandon League	ahead 5-4	b 8	1	5,(2-2) BBFFX	2	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF-RF); Martinez Scores
4	2009-04-18	CLE	@	NYY	Jose Veras	ahead 20-4	t 8	1	6,(3-2) FBBFBX	1	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF Line)
5	2009-06-05	CLE	@	CHW	John Danks	ahead 3-0	t 6	2	1,(0-0) X	1	Home Run (Line Drive to Deep RF)
6	2009-06-15	CLE		MIL	Mark DiFelice	ahead 9-7	b 6	1	4,(1-2) BSSX	3	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF-RF); Martinez Scores; Choo Scores
7	2009-06-16	CLE		MIL	Carlos Villanueva	behind 3-7	b 9	1	3,(1-1) BCX	2	Home Run (Line Drive to Deep RF Line); Choo Scores
8	2009-06-30	CLE		CHW	Clayton Richard	behind 0-4	b 2	2	4,(2-1) BCBX	1	Home Run (Line Drive to Deep RF)
9	2009-07-03	CLE		OAK	Trevor Cahill	behind 0-2	b 2	1	3,(1-1) BCX	1	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF-RF)
10	2009-07-24	CLE	@	SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	ahead 1-0	t 7	0	1,(0-0) X	2	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF-RF); Peralta Scores
11	2009-07-26	CLE	@	SEA	Miguel Batista	ahead 8-2	t 6	2	3,(2-0) BBX	2	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF); Choo Scores
12	2009-08-22	CLE		SEA	Doug Fister	behind 1-3	b 4	1	3,(1-1) SBX	1	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF)
13	2009-08-24	CLE	@	KCR	Gil Meche	tied 0-0	t 4	1	4,(3-0) BBBX	3	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF); Cabrera Scores; Choo Scores
14	2009-09-02	CLE	@	DET	Rick Porcello	behind 1-4	t 8	0	2,(0-1) ..CX	1	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF)
15	2009-09-08 (1)	CLE		TEX	Neftali Feliz	behind 5-8	b 7	2	2,(0-1) CX	1	Home Run (Line Drive to Deep CF-RF)
16	2009-09-30 (1)	CLE		CHW	Carlos Torres	ahead 4-1	b 6	0	1,(0-0) X	1	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF)

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2009.

Not a lot going on here either. The pitchers Hafner took out were giving up an average of 1.243 HR/9 and they ranged from the horrendous (Jose Veras, member 2009 Indians bullpen) to the unhittable (Neftali Feliz). It does stand out to me that Hafner still has power to all parts of the park. Hafner's splits are about where we'd expect, with 75% of his HRs (12/16) coming against righties. That's eerily in line with his career splits (123/163 HRs against RHP).

So, have we learned anything? It's hard to say. I think we can reject the idea that Marte and Hafner piled up homeruns against AAAA pitchers; at the same time, this is such a miniscule sample that we can hardly claim anything definitive in a positive direction. I'm saying Hafner's good for one about every 16 ABs and Marte will take somebody out about every 19 ABs. What do you think?

Minor League Signings

afh4 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 00:23:06 -0000

Minor League Signings

"The Indians announced 15 amateur signings in Latin America. From the Dominican Republic: OF Angel Hernandez, LHP Alexander Joseph, INFs Jairo Kelly, Jorge Martinez, Luigy Rodriguez, RHPs Amiro Santana, Juan Santana. From Venezuela: RHP Yan Carlos Caripa, C Juan Carlos DelaCruz, INF Richard Delgado, RHPs Nietzer Jimenez (18 years old), Alejandro Rivas (18), C Gustavo Rojas (17). From Panama: LHP Jonathan Cedeno (17), C Franklin Moreno. Unless otherwise noted, all of the above are 16." -Castro

Game 155: Indians 9, Orioles 8

afh4 — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 02:34:19 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Go get it, Agent M.

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In a turn of events that was unfathomable just a week ago, the Indians have won two in a row. Sowers was bad tonight, leaving the game trailing five to four, with peripherals that indicated no better. The Indians took the lead for the second time (they had been up 4-0 before Sowers' fifth inning implostion) with a four run outburst in the seventh, lost the lead when Kerry Wood was horrible in the ninth, and then finally won the game on a Jhonny Peralta single in the bottom of the ninth.

The Indians were legitimately good offensively tonight, collecting fifteen hits with four doubles and a pair of homeruns from Choo and Marte (Marte!). Andy hit a two run jack in the fourth and then tacked on a sacrifice fly later. Most disheartening was Kerry Wood's performance, comprised of three hits, two runs, a walk and a blown save. Despite Wood's best efforts, the Indians won the game when Valbuena singled, was moved over by Choo and driven home by Peralta. Raffy Perez recorded three strikeouts tonight, for those still keeping track, and Chris Perez also looked decent in his brief, .2 IP appearance. The Indians have now won two in a row for the first time since August 26 and 27.

No matter what the Indians evaluative process says, it seems incomprehensible that Andy Marte won't get a chance to start for the team next season. In a lost year, why would the Indians not give some playing time to a gentleman who has hit a homerun every seventh game he's played this year? That translates to 23 homeruns in a whole season, a total that might lead the 2010 Indians.

via www.fangraphs.com

Game 154: Indians 4, Orioles 2

afh4 — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 02:24:21 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Get used to it. Or maybe not. Who knows?

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Cleveland wins! Cleveland wins! The Indians finally ended their losing streak by putting together a reasonably well played game of baseball versus the Baltimore Orioles. If the Indians had lost tonight, it would've been 12 straight and tied some now soon to be forgotten mark for consecutive failure in Cleveland baseball history. As they won, we can know go back to acknowledging that they are bad, very, very bad, but not historically bad.

Fausto Carmona, hypothetical stopper, took the mound and looked good, actually. He did give up a lot of hits (9) but he also didn't walk anyone, got some K's (6 over 6) and induced groundballs (8). Can't ask for much more than that when you've seen the Indians starters over the past month. Tony Sipp looked shaky again control-wise, although he worked around his three baserunners to complete a clean inning in the seventh. From there, it was the legendary Veras-Wood knockout combination. Kerry picked up his 20th save of the season and I'm sure that makes him feel a lot better for not signing with the Angels, or, really, anyone else at all.

The offense was powered by Andy Marte for the third game in a row: Andy now has six hits in the last three contests, as well as three walks. With Eric Wedge on his way out of town, perhaps Marte is exacting his revenge by pouring salt onto the slug that is Wedge's tenure in Cleveland. Or maybe some hits are just falling in. Whichever. LaPorta also contributed two knocks and Valbuena went oppo for a jack. Not a bad night, overall.

via www.fangraphs.com