After taking a few moments to gather myself after a draft filled with hope and promise I have come to a few conclusions. To start off I think there is a lot of good that came from the draft. Nobody really knows how good these guys are until three years from now and all could be good players. Denver addressed positions of need throughout. They did take a Defensive Tackle with their first pick which was their biggest need. They also took a RB and a CB. I think those were the consensus top three holes on most peoples draft need boards for the Broncos, DT, RB, and CB.

The Osweiler pick has me a little puzzled in the fact that we have Peyton Manning. Why are we drafting for when he is gone? Isn’t the point of signing Manaing to try and win a Super Bowl this year or the next? I think the kid may turn into something, but I really feel that this was all Elway desperately wanting to draft his guy of the future since he got here. At least that itch is scratched, and the next couple of drafts Denver can build the rest of their team with high draft picks instead of taking a QB in the top two rounds every other year. QB pick is a luxury pick if you have a starter. We have a starter and other needs.

However, the overall strategy and method of managing the draft I think was amateur at best and falls squarely on the shoulders of Brian Xanders. This movie has been played over and over for the last four drafts since he came into the GM position with McDaniels. What I am getting at is the constant reaching for players in the draft and mismanaging trades and value.

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Going into the draft Denver has two glaring needs that hasn’t been address in Free Agency Defensive Tackle and Running Back. While having a capable backup to the aging free agency is high on the list of wants Denver has a dire need for two starting positions at Defensive Tackle. In the last 6 drafts Denver has yielded only three defensive starters currently on their roster (OLBs/DE Dumervil, and Miller, and DE Robert Ayers). Of all of the positions covered by free agent signings non were of the Defensive Tackle variety. Denver is now in desperation mode and if they have any hope of defending the run better they must get some quality talent in the two starting DT spots.

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Now that I have been able to start to come to grips with the reality that great Peyton Manning is playing for my team and not knocking them out of the playoffs 200-13, I wonder if it is safe to buy a Manning jersey in Bronco orange or blue or whatever color may come out if Pat Bowlen changes his mind again. This fear of buying a new QB jersey comes from the many QB Jersey’s I have been forced to pick up to support my local team. I do have a Champ Bailey jersey and that seems to be the one I have worn the most since Elway retired. However, like many fans the QB jersey is the must have. Please read below and help me decide.

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via cmsimg.indystar.com

In waiting to see what happens with Peyton Manning the Denver Broncos seem almost paralyzed in their pursuit of the veteran Free Agent QB. We are now through an entire week of Free Agency and Denver has only signed a third tier 30 year old safety. Denver has major needs across the board, and it seems that Elway is willing to wait until he has Manning before moving forward in addressing other needs. This appears to show he is putting his all eggs in a single basket, and doesn’t trust Xanders and Fox to go out and interview other free agents.

By now I was expecting to see Denver host/talk to 8-10 free agents and sign at least 4. Where is the visit with RB Michael Bush, Safety Laron Landry, and Wide Receiver Mike Wallace? Where is the game plan saying that we have these holes and need to see what we can fill? The only other free agent, Brandon Meriweather, that was brought in Denver couldn't get signed. This is very disturbing in the fact that Manning may be the only real signing if they get him. Even with Manning I have hard time believing that Denver will be good enough to go very far in the playoffs. The defense has plenty of holes throughout including all four positions on the entire line, middle linebacker, safety, and even cornerback. The only staples are Champ, Dumervile, and Von Miller. Every other position needs to get better.

On offense I am not so sure that Manning will have all the weapons he needs let alone have any kind of report with his receivers. Manning had been with the same guys who only knew that system for several years. Denver’s current roster doesn’t have a good pass catching Tight End or any true number two wideout behind Thomas. Without these pieces you are going to see a lot of failed drives because the receivers can’t run a Manning offense

Why haven’t we brought in Dallas Clark, someone that would help Manning and entice him to come here? It looks like Elway has stars in his eyes and has convinced himself that all things will be fine when Manning comes to Denver and we will address any holes with rookies in the draft. The bigger issue will come when all of the free agents are gone and if Denver doesn’t get Manning. What then?

via media.miamiherald.com

Now that McCoy has missed his window on what looks like a head coaching position with two franchises we can look at the real possibility of having Mike McCoy as our offensive coordinator for a fourth season.

This last season may have been the only full season McCoy in charge of the offense as Josh McDaniels called the plays in 2009 and all but three games or 2010. Fox has said that he let's McCoy put together the offensive game plan and call the plays on game day this season.

There are those that like McCoy and seem to think that there were other reasons for the lack of offensive points (faith in Tebow, Tebow's execution, Receivers not getting open, OL poor pass protection, RB depth). They would like McCoy to stay and help in the development of QB Tim Tebow.

There are those that firmly place the lack of consistent offensive production on McCoy due to predictability, stuborness, and a lack of aggressiveness in the play calling and offensive game plane ( Buf 14, KC 3, NE 10). They do not understand why a single screen pass wasn't called against NE and other teams when they were constantly blitzing.

I am curious where the court of public opinion of MHR stands and see what the majority of fans may lay. I generally wouldn't ask for a Rec, but I would like the poll to stay up for a few days. This really isn't an article (I don't want to try to sway people to see what people really think) as much as a poll. So please remember to Rec if you would like to see more votes from members. Of course please add your reasons why you voted Stay or Go. Thanks.

via www.cartoonstock.com

Fat Lady!? Where for art thou? Maybe caught in Boston traffic? Wherever she is she has been preoccupied with Steeler fans and 25 other NFL teams over the last couple of weeks. For those teams she has sung her song ,and their season is over. Meanwhile the unthinkable keeps happening for the Denver faithful. Just when I thought Mike McCoy had figured out a way to ensure that Tebow couldn’t succeed he goes and calls pass plays when he should and allows his offense to blossom. 10 yard slant on the first play of Overtime! You gotta be kidding me. The emotional high from last week’s Wild Card Playoff win has been sweeter than the 10,000 candy canes my kids downed for Christmas.

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The cliché that had been thrown around (no pun intended) for much of Orton’s career in Denver was often a slap in the face to many Denver fans that had to endure number eight’s tenure. Many pundits and personalities say that fans are stupid, and think they know football, but they really don’t know. I beg to differ. I think there are savvy fans that do understand football and know what they see on the field. They know that a pretty spiral is the only measure of a quarterback. They also know that plays break down and that a QB that tries to make things happen out of nothing is more valuable than a QB that can only run the script. This is because there are 11 guys on the other side of the ball that are paid very well to disrupt the script. This is why on a team that has a young offensive line and young WRs needs a QB that can create. Orton was not the right QB to give Denver the best chance to win. It is the difference between being clutch or not.

This will be sweet validation for fans that already knew what local talk radio media would not admit. In today’s matchup I think if the game is on the line Denver fans have come to know that Mr. Orton is the likely candidate to choke. That is his MO, to fold when the pressure is on. That the QB dressed in red will defiantly give the Broncos the best chance to win today.

via t1.gstatic.com

The 2011 season now matters. The Broncos have now transformed from a rebuilding team to a playoff contender. They are 1 game out of the division lead and two games out of the top AFC playoff seed with 5 games remaining. Forget all of the controversy over Tebow, and the close call games. Denver has shown the ability to win games when nobody thought they would, and now they actually have a legit shot to be playing in January. For Denver to make the playoff they will likely have to go a minimum of 3 -2 to finish 9-7. 9-7 will probably only get Denver in if Oakland falters, and Denver can win the division. The Wild Card may end up being the more difficult rout. If Denver has to make it as a Wild Card they will have to likely finish 10-6 and go 4-1 or plain win out. The only loss Denver can truly afford is to New England as they are the most difficult opponent on Denver’s remaining schedule and far enough in the playoff seeding that a wild card is unlikely. At this point Denver needs help and has to win almost every game.

Current Playoff Picture

Division Leaders

1. Houston (8-3)– AFC South

2. New England (8-3) – AFC East *

3. Baltimore (8-3) – AFC North

4. Oakland—(7-4) AFC West

Wild Card

5. Pittsburgh (8-3)

6. Cincinnati (7-4)

In the Hunt

7. Denver (6-5)

8. NY Jets (6-5)

9. Tennessee (6-5)

10. Buffalo (5-6) **

11. Kansas City (4-7) ***

12. San Diego (4-7)

13. Cleveland Browns (4-7)

* Denver Plays week 15

** Denver Plays week 16

*** Denver Plays week 17

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Positives:

1. Denver Won -  It’s ugly, but a good kind of ugly.  As long as Denver keeps winning I can’t complain too much.  However, I do have some things I would like to see differently so Denver doesn’t have to comeback in the fourth quarter.

2. Dennis Allen DC– He has proved that game planning and play calling can make a defense.  He has been great in play calling and getting his unit to play and a unit.  Denver has given up 10,24,10,13,and 13 since the Tebow change. 

3. Miller and Doom – This is a special combo that is the heart of the team

4. Tebow improved passing – Tim had a lot of passes dropped early.

5. O-line Pass Protection - Was the best I have seen so far this year.  However, San Diego was without their top pass rushers in Shaun Phillips and Louis Castillo.   Still it was nice to see.  If Denver can do that against Minnesota and Jared Allen next week I will change my belief that RT is a major need in the offseason.

6. Decker laying out - The guy has a lot of McCaffrey in him.  I hate to say it, but he does.  That big third down catch to get Denver 39 yards down the field to tie the game was huge.  Tebow had a good throw.  The catch was better.

7. Willis McGahee - 23 for 117.  Not bad.  He is the workhorse and best RB on the team. Denver needed him today and put in a big time effort.

Negatives:

1. Offensive Play Calling – Denver’s offense is more talented and the game shouldn’t have been this close.  A major reason that Orton didn’t succeed in Denver has to do with McCoy’s obvious play selection.  

2. Running on first down up the middle –I know this is kind of 1b, this is getting old and dangerous.   Who knows what happens if McGahee doesn’t lose a yard in the fourth quarter when Denver was inside the SD 15?  Maybe Denver scores a TD instead of a FG.

3. Eddie Royal dropping passes – In his rookie year Eddie was Mr. Stickum.  This year especially he has dropped more than he has caught.

4. Bill Williamsons comment on Elways’ opinion of Tebow not converting third down – Denver runs the ball on third down an awful lot.  Also, they run up the middle a lot with McGahee, and Tebow. Denver was 6/17 for 35% on the game.  Only 9 of the third down conversions were passing.  5 were Tebow runs up the middle.  If Eddie Royal makes the catch in the first quarter Tebow is 44% on passing third downs if you want to get nitpicky.

What this means:

Denver could very realistically go 9-7 on the season and make the playoffs as the 6th seed (Denver currently holds 7th best record with tie breakers in the AFC), or win the Division.  They play a much easier schedule than Oakland with only New England as the major team as a likely loss.  Chicago isn’t the same team without Cutler.

Denver’s  (6-5) Remaining Schedule

@ Min

Chi

NE

@Buf

KC

Oakland’s (7-4) Remaining Schedule

@ Mia

@GB

Det

@KC

SD

 Denver has won way too many games to be picking in the top 5 and likely will win enough to finish in the 7-9 to 9-7 area.  That would put them smack dab in the middle of the draft where they currently would be drafting if the season ended today.  Being that this is almost a bye week and only 6 weeks remaining it would be fun to reassess the Broncos roster needs since inserting Tim Tebow. The defense has become drastically improved in that span.   This has largely to do with the defensive coordinator play calling and the schemes being understood by the players.  The offensive needs now have risen to the top to compliment Tebow’s game, and Fox’s running style.

via th76.photobucket.com

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I can’t really speak too much to the current state of the Broncos as there is too much negative emotion involved.   So I focus on the future.  Looking at how the current rebuilding project is going I have to say that there is a serious cart before horse issue at hand.  Brian Xanders is the GM and as I have mentioned before I don’t think he or the Broncos brass knows the first thing about how to build a winning football team.  I believe the philosophy to this point is to draft the flashiest player in the first round, and then fill holes by taking guys higher then than their draft value.  Xanders is the common denominator, but whether it is McDaniels or Elway good talent evaluation and draft philosophy don’t seem to change much.  From what I have seen Right Tackle is now the number one draft need.  Next would be Defensive Tackle.

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via withthefirstpick.com

With Tim Tebow starting for Broncos in Miami next week many have said that they are not confident that Denver is confident that the future of the Broncos will be playing.  There is a voice that says the search must continue and hope for a shot at the blue chip quarterback prospect out of Stanford Andrew Luck who is projected and in all likelyhood to be the number one pick in next year's draft.

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via static.nfl.com

Finally the game became fun to watch again.   Tim Tebow was in and all of the sudden you felt electricity in your veins as a fan, and a desire to give high fives.   I think the Denver defense has shown some improvement this season, but unfortunately you knew that when the defense made a stop the ball was going back to a Kyle Orton lead offense.  

In the second half of the San Diego game you knew that all the defense had to do was get the ball in Tebow’s hands and magic could happen.  And that’s exactly what came to fruition.  The defense caused a fumble and alakazam a touchdown to bring Denver on the verge of an epic come from behind victory.  A fatal third down coverage lapse allowed San Diego to all but seal the game.   Though, Even with 28 seconds left and needing a touchdown there was a chance.  

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via prod.static.broncos.clubs.nfl.com

How much longer must we suffer watching Orton under center?  Let’s take a look.

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Hard to Tell on Defense Improvement

The Denver defense, who ranked dead last in the NFL in 2010, is the strongest concern for Denver’s success in 2011. I don’t even think we have to look at the offense as they were at least competitive for much of the season to be at least an 8-8 team if not better.  I personally can’t stand watching the statue known as Kyle Orton as our Quarterback, but he can run an offense to score enough to win at least half of our games.  The defense, not the offense, is the primary reason why Denver had the worst season in team history (Only season with 12 loses) and the second pick in the draft.  So as Bronco fans have the usual "let's drink  the Kool-Aid" conversations I would have to  urge them to look at the reasons for the 2010 failures first.  

More after the Jump...

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It’s time for a little fun with the mock drafts.  I am a little tired of the same old thing and I think people don’t realize the impact of no free agency.  Aside from just looking at the Broncos I think this year’s draft is going to bring some very unique moves due to the lack of free agents.   This could be very good for a team like Denver who has a top pick in the first two rounds, and doesn't need to draft a QB.  More players at other positions will be pushed down.  That is a good thing for Denver fans.

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For all those of you wonderful Mock Drafters taking the hours to write up some very interesting Mocks remember that Denver essentially has 10 starting positions that they must upgrade or find future replacements on Defense.  TE’s, Guards, and RBs are all nice things to draft, but I am throwing out the idea of doing a switch. Instead of fixing the defense with free agents and drafting offense I would hope that the opposite happens in 2011.  Fix the offense with free agents and draft defense. The number one reason why is that Denver has the worst defense in the NFL.  Stats don’t lie at this level.  32nd in yards.  32nd in points.  The only Defensive players taken in the first two rounds in the last five years are

2010 - none

2009 – DE Ayers, CB A. Smith, S D. McBath

2008 - none

2007 – DE J. Moss, T. Crowder

2006 -- none

Only two of the five players are still with the Broncos and neither of them are studs.  (Ayers is average at what he does in this defense).   McBath is a special teams player at the moment. 

Tight Ends

Please stop taking TE’s in the Draft – It is a very dependent and non-vital position in the NFL.    Most Tight Ends are dime a dozen players and don’t make that much of an impact unless their last name is Gates or Clark.  I don’t know if you remember the draft of 2006 beyond Jay Cutler, but 8 TEs were taken in the first three rounds, two in the first round including Vernon Davis with the 6th overall pick.  The Niners could have taken Jay Cutler or Matt Leinart and they took Davis. 

Here is the list of tight ends in that draft which was supposed to hold large amounts of future Antonio Gates.

6th Vernon Davis

28th Meredes Lewis – didn’t break 41 catches until this year

46th Joe Klopfenstien – Cut in his third year. Is currently out of football

53rd Anthony Fasano – Was traded in his third year. Never broke 40 catch mark.

61st Tony Scheffler – Had a great report with Cutler in Denver and is now the second guy in Detroit behind Pettigrew.

72nd Leonard Pope – Cut in his third year.  Had 10 catches for KC this last year.

86th David Thomas --

92nd Dominique Bryd

These guys are floating all over the NFL.  We can pick up two TEs in free agency or trade for a PB & J sandwhich.

TEs available in Free Agency this year – Zach Miller, Owen Daniels, Kevin Boss, Mercedes Lewis, and 20 other guys.

Running Backs – As much as I love to watch running backs they are really not the focus of any team that has won a championship.  Defense and Quarterbacks are the key people.  Running back by committee seems to be the way to go. No more Emmitt Smith’s around leading their teams to the big trophy.  A lot of three headed RB monsters.  This is a good year to pick up a couple of back in free agency.

RB Free Agents available  -- DeAngelo Williams, Arian Foster, Amhad Bradshaw, Mike Tolbert, Michael Bush, Ronnie Brown, Leon Washington, and 20 other guys.

Offensive Line – Denver has already invested in their O-Line in the draft the last couple of years since 2006 with Ryan Harris.  The line sowed that it had a couple of rookies.  Give them some time and bring in a couple of vets in Free Agency that can give depth and provide leadership and experience.  Light and Mankins are available.  Just sing those guys and watch Tom Brady try to stand in the pocket.

OL Free Agents - - Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Carl Nicks

Draft Front Seven

Denver has seven draft picks in the first three rounds in this years and next years draft.  How convenient?  I see a lot of Patrick Peterson being mocked to Denver, but let me ask you this?  Would you rather have porous defensive line and try to develop a corner first or have a decent secondary and develop a defensive line first?  Champ and others will be here for another year.  Denver needs to desperately reload in their D-Line and get those guys developing.  I don’t think it matters if you take Peterson because no corner is going to help you when you are getting ran over for 200+ yards per game.  Also, Peterson would not be able to cover WRs for seven seconds.  Corner is a luxury position that you take when you have already put a few other pieces in up front.  Currently Denver has a bunch of second string players as their front seven and it has showed.

Denver’s Likely D-Line with no upgrades or additions. 

DT – Justin Bannan

NT – Jamal Williams

DT – Marcus Thomas

My best case Mock Draft

1st Round (2nd Overall)– DT Nick Fairley 6-4 298 or DT Marcel Dareus 6-3 298 lbs

via media.commercialappeal.com

I don’t personally have tape on these guys to really know which one will work out better.  I like both and think they can be studs at the next level.  Denver scouts will have to decide which will be the better prospect.

2nd Round (36th overall)  -- NT Jerrell Powe - 320lbs - 6-2

via cdn.bleacherreport.net

This is a must.  This guy can be dominant and is the best NT prospect in the draft.  Denver currently has no top NT prospects.  Marcus Thomas should be playing DE in  a 3-4.  Did anyone see what BJ Raji did against the Eagles offense?  All top Nose Tackle Prospects are talked about as lazy fat and a risk.  The truth is not many NT prospects ever get beyond that and it is OK.  They only play a about 60% to 70% of snaps and are there to eat up blockers and make a push.  These aren’t pass rushers.  These are big uglies. Get em in a weight room and get start developing.  His draft stock will shoot up in the combine.

From nfldraftscout.com

 2nd Round  (46th overall)–DE/ DT Jared Crick

via i.cdn.turner.com

Denver now has three legit linemen prospects.  It is Ok if one doesn’t pan out, but the youth surge up front is now in place. This isn’t  a sexy mock, but neither are record breaking days by opposing running backs.  Did anyone see what BJ Raji did against the Eagles offense?  Denver needs a complete foundation at D-line.  No house can be built without it and this year is deep in D-Linemen.

3rd  Round – (67th overall) ILB Mark Herzlich

via www.sportsgrid.com

This guy had an issue with cancer is now cancer free.  Your middle linebackers are the QBs of the defense.    This guy has all the intangibles and the physical gifts to match.  A true leader and playmaker.  He will be a steal in the third round.

Beyond the fourth round

I think it is too difficult to project beyond the third, but Denver only has three picks left.  None in the fourth or fifth.  So I am not holding out for starting material with those guys.  Maybe one will shine through.  Could use some more DB help and the aforementioned offensive positions.

At this point Denver can focus on Pass Rushers and DBs in 2012 if they want.  They should still consider pass rushers and linebackers for the next year.

Well now that the 2010 Season is done I thought it would be good to look at schedule to the offseason and the draft.

January

For the Broncos January is the begging of the 2011 season.  2010 is over (thank God). Jan 15th means everything in terms of the draft.  Whether or not Denver wants to draft Andrew Luck, if he declares for the NFL draft, it will be good for the Broncos. That means that Denver will be able to take the best defensive player in the draft to help their 32nd ranked defense if he is taken first overall.  Also, it would really help the draftnicks to know who is actually going to be in the draft.

The Senior Bowl will mean a lot for Denver if they move down in the first round of the draft or if none of the top underclassmen declare for the draft.  Nick Fairley, Patrick Peterson, Andrew Luck, and Marcel Dareus are all underclassman. The second round will also be filled with the top seniors.

January 15th – Underclassman must declare for the NFL draft

NFL Playoffs

January 29th – Senior Bowl

http://www.seniorbowl.com/

February

Franchise tag month and the Scouting Combine.  There will be a whole lot of speculation as to who will be free agents for Denver in this month and a good look at draft prospects in the combine.

Super Bowl Feb 6th

February 8th: Waiver system begins for 2010 season

February 11th: First day clubs can designate franchise or transition players

February 24th - March 2nd: NFL Scouting Combine (Indianapolis)

http://www.nfl.com/combine

February 25th: Deadline for clubs to designate franchise or transition players

March

Free Agency Month.  I wonder who the Broncos will get to come and play in the mile high?  Oh yeah this probably be the month that we’ll find out if the there is going to be a lockout with at NFL annual meeting.

March 5th: Start of Free Agency

March 15th - Offseason workouts can commence

March 21st-24th: NFL Annual Meeting

April

Draft Month.  Three weeks of anticipation for the hope of a new season.

April 22nd-24th: 2010 NFL Draft (ridiculous that it's 3 days!)

Denver will at worst be picking 5th overall.   

Now looking at the scenarios Denver should at the very least have the 5th pick in the draft if they win next Sunday against the Chargers. Arizona holds the key to Denver having a better than the fifth pick.  If both Buffalo and Cincy win then Denver will be picking third at the very least.  Denver could win their game and still have the second overall pick if Buffalo, Cincy, and Arizona win.

So set you minds at ease for fear of Denver dropping to the bottom of the top 10 for next years draft.  Denver could win and it wouldn't hurt them in the draft to put them out of the top 5.  Go Denver! Go Tebow! Kick the living !@#$% out of the Chargers.

A look at the scenarios

Denver has an edge in the draft scenarios with a weak schedule.  The draft order first tie breaker is decided by strength of schedule.  The team that faced the weakest schedule drafts higher than the team with the harder schedule.  Of all the teams that have a shot at tying Denver in overall record only Arizona has the edge in strength of schedule.  There is a slight chance that Dallas and San Francisco could match Denver's strength of Schedule, but s unlikley considering op teams they have played are likley to win in the last week.

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Somewhere an Orton Fairy Died.

No amount of clapping will bring back Orton as the future of the Denver Broncos.  Not anymore!

I don’t believe in Kyle Orton.  I believe in Tim Tebow.

via outsidethepressbox.com

Orton and all of his followers can usher themselves out to mediocrevile.  Finally a quarterback that is a leader and a big time player has taken his first step in the Broncos tradition.  No longer are the days of fetal positions, and wishing the bad man will go away.  Here comes the days of records being broken and big plays.  The days of knowing that 10 points behind in the fourth quarter is a game out of reach are gone.  Even though Denver was down by seven in the fourth quarter I knew we still had a chance with number 15.  Too bad the coaches were too scared to move, and actually give their young QB a try at the comeback.  They took the game out of the Tebow in the end, but was there a doubt in the minds of the fans that there was a chance if Broncos would have gone with Tim instead?   No.  They knew that they had a chance with Tebow.  With Orton it was a different story.

It is clear :Tebow has the goods in him to be the next great QB.  Orton has the goods in him to be the next great QB’s backup. 

A record setting 40 yard touchdown run.

A 32 yards touchdown pass a couple of plays later.

No INTs.

QB Rating of 100.5

More articles to come later, but I just could not wait to start tearing the Orton walls down.  There is no hope in Orton, and I feel sorry for the fans who have put their hopes and dreams in this incredibly average quarterback.  They can all  be set free if they are will to remove their vales and see the light.  There is truly more required to make the Broncos better, but this is merely about the quarterback.  The leader and player that embodies the franchise.  That player is Tim Tebow.

Some nice highlights form his first game.  

The future of the defense is a much different story than the offense.  The Denver defense is comprised entirely of guys over 30 who will be gone in two years.  The current old guys list looks like this: NT Williams(34), DE Bannan (31),  ILB Haggan (30), CB Bailey (32), CB Goodman (32), S Hill 32), S Dawkins (37).  That’s the entire secondary, and 40% of the front seven.  So seven out of eleven guys figure to be too old to be on the team.  The picture for Denver’s youth movement on defense is clear. Draft defense and draft it often. 

Thanks to McDorkels Denver has no 4th pick or 5th pick in 2011.  So the first four picks may all go to defense next year and may be repeated the year after.  A lot of the positions required for a 3-4 are not in place such as a Nose Tackle, a starting 3-4 DE, and a rush OLB opposite Doom.  So if the D switches from a 3-4 to a 4-3 than Nose Tackle won’t be an issue.  I am looking at the team, however, as it is structured now.  Many teams are switching to a 3-4 so it isn’t crazy to think the next coach will run the same base scheme.

Denver needs to draft at least six starters on defense in the next two years.  I don’t see how they spend a single first day pick on offense.

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Taking a look at the future rather than the present is a nice way to avoid the negativity in a down season.  Looking over Denver’s roster this list is looking to identify who will be the future of the Broncos over the next five years and who will need to be drafted in the next two years..  I left off players that will be 35 or older in 2015.  I also did not include every possible backup because that is exhausting.  Josh McDaniels has left the organization with several bright spots on offense and glaring holes all over the defense.

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There is some meaning to the outcome of the Arizona game.  If the Broncos lose they would "win" in getting in a better position for higher draft position as both teams are only owners of 3-9 and Arizona as a lower strength of schedule.  So in a sense the game this weekend is a win-win.  As it is always fun to watch the Broncos beat an opponent at least if a loss comes it has a silver lining.  I think both Arizona and Denver can pull out at least one more win down the stretch, but who knows.  It will be something to watch over this weekend what teams win and push Denver up the Draft pecking order.

Current Tie Brekears for NFL Draft

1.Winning Percentage

2. Strength of Schedule

3. Division Record

4. Conference Record

5. Coin Flip

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What is shaping up to be the worst season in Broncos history since the league went to a 16 game format I thought a look back over the last 33 years would be a fun stat post. The losing seasons are highlighted in yellow.  Denver has only had six losing seasons since 1978.  The 1982 season only had 8 games due to the strike.  So even though there were less wins there were also less losses in that season than 2010.  Let’s hope this season is a hiccup in the proud winning tradition of the Denver Broncos.  Of course the season is not over yet:)

*Made Playoffs

X Made AFC Championship

Y Made Super Bowl

Z Won SuperBowl

At first I was excited to hear that Josh McDaniels was getting fired, but then I realized I had to watch the rest of the season.

Eric Studsville is obviously not going to be the head coach next year. He mentioned that Kyle Orton is going to be the starter because they are going to try and win the last four games.  The reason for Orton starting and trying win out is simple.  Eric is applying for a job somewhere else for next season.  This is an interview process in his eyes for a possible coordinator position or even a head coach position somewhere college or pro.  He is not concerned with developing talent for the future of the Denver Broncos.  So where does that leave fans for the remaining schedule:  To watch an interim coach perform an audition. 

 The last four games will be incredibly frustrating unless Joe Ellis or God forbid Pat Bowlen step in and say we want to give the fans something to look forward to.  “Put Tebow and the young guys in.”   I admit I am sick of watching the same product from the McDaniels era, namely “Mr. Nonclutch” Kyle Orton.  I want to see what the future players are going to look like and actually see what the heck Tim Tebow looks like in a real game.  Almost any coach who is playing in a lost season would start Tebow and give him some game experience, but I fear we won’t get to see Tebow play until 2011.  

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Of the teams that won today and including KC over Denver they have officially been mathematically eliminated.  The best record Denver could have if they win out would be 7-9.

This is kind of a relief really.  I didn't think the Broncos were at the point to do no better than 7-9 this year and had them pegged for 6-10.  So I am not as disappointed about the season as I am about some of the injuries and questionable coaching moves.  Now we don't have to be teased with the outside shot of being mathematically in the playoffs.  Their were some nice things to see.  Lloyd becoming a Pro-Bowl talent.  A young offensive line growing as a unit and still improving.  Knowshon coming into his own the last couple of weeks.  Even Orton showed me somethings I didn't think was capable of doing.

Teams that would qualify for the Playoffs

AFC East  - NE(9-2) or NY Jets (9-2)

AFC North  - Bal (8-3) or Pit (8-3)

AFC South - (7-5)

AFC Wes t-  KC (8-4)

Denver can’t win the AFC West as of today. KC could lose the rest of their games and still finish a game in front of Denver with a worst record of 8-8.

Wild Card

NE(9-2) or NY Jets (9-2)

 Bal (8-3) or Pit (8-3)

One of the teams from both the East and North won’t win the division but would beat out Denver at a best with a worst 8-3.

Denver is clearly in rebuilding mode and don't have the roster yet to be a playoff contender.  I am OK with that.  Let's hope we get to see the future in Tim Tebow for the rest of the season and have something to look forward to in 2011.  The development of our young players is where the interest is in the last four games.

The teams currently vying for a top 10 are coming into focus.  I am obviously not rooting for Denver to lose, but if they do it would be fun to have a top 5 pick.  So as Denver continues their losing ways at least this is something to look forward to.  Some unexpected things would need to happen to lock it in like Detroit or Buffalo winning 3 of 6 games, but anything is possible. My big hope is that we are in a position to take Marcel Dareus or Da’Quan Bowers whether it’ at 5 or 9.

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It has been a while since I have posted on here mainly because I have been too busy to even think.  Another reason is that I have tried to look at this team for what it is and what is bright for our future and get blasted by 90% of the posters for even doubting a playoff run.  This team is doing exactly what I thought they would do.  I predicted they would be 2-5 at the seven game mark and they are.  They will likely go 6-10 or 7-9.  With all of the injuries, holes on defense and offensive line, and lack of playmaking at the QB position I couldn’t see Denver doing anything else, but pick up where they left off from last season.  I got blasted by the super bowl or bust Kyle Orton for MVP crowd for dare saying anything negative about a QB that we got as leftovers in the Cutler trade.   

For the record I am not disappointed because I understand that all the pieces aren’t in place and that the Denver Broncos have had a major rebuilding under way with 80% of the roster turned over from 2008.  This year was a wash year, and we should be looking for improvements with our young players and hopefully the beginning of the Tim Tebow era. 

If you are disappointed or shocked than you probably still believe that Kyle Orton is the best QB in the league or just behind Manning and Brady.  You probably think that our defense wasn’t old and undersized to play the 3-4.  You probably blasted me on many of my sane and realistic comments.   You are possibly still holding out for a 10-6 season.

So I am going to say it again to hopefully help those Denver fans just like to write "fail", or are too young to know who the Three Amigos were. 

1. Don’t put your faith in Kyle Orton.  He is not a winner.  He is average. 

2. The Broncos are rebuilding on both sides of the ball.  All of the old guys along the front seven still need to be replaced. 

3. Tim Tebow is the future of the franchise.   I said he would start by the tenth game of the season.  If McDaniels wants to be the coach beyond 2010 he better do it. 

4. This Denver season holds no playoffs in its future, and you should look outside of the current starting roster for the team that will get back to the playoffs.  The future has some good things in it.  The present has horrible things like the worst loss in Denver Broncos history to a below average Raiders team at Mile High.

Oh yeah and I told you so.

Agentj's Week 4 Picks 

Last Week’s Results:  10-6  vs.  Orang Rush 7-9

(Yes I am making this competitive. OR is a darn good poster and worthy opponent. Also he is the only one who consistantly posts his picks. I had to come up with a clever title, but OR definatley has me on that.)

Week 3 Correct Picks: NE, Minn, Balt, Dal, Tenn, Cincy, St. Louis, Indy, NY Jets, Chicago

Week 3 Wrong Picks: NO, San Fran, Tampa, SD, J-Ville, Oakland

This week presents much easier picks as a lot of the good teams are playing a lot of the bad teams.  I wouldn’t bet on Carolina, Detroit, and Arizona winning on the road.  There are always upsets each week and the trick is picking the right ones.   This often comes when good teams go on the road and are overconfident.   At least two of the low end teams will win and upset at home this weekend.  The only issue is to find out which teams can do it.

Low End Teams at home: Oakland, Buffalo, ST. Louis, Cleveland, J-ville, NY Giants

Good teams that are underdogs: Miami and Baltimore

Away                                     Home

Sunday, October 3

NY Jets(2-1)        vs.          Buffalo (0-3)

Seattle (2-1)       vs.          St. Louis (1-2)

Carolina (0-3)     vs.          New Orleans (2-1)          

Detroit  (0-3)      vs.          Green Bay (2-1)               

Cincinnati (2-1)  vs.          Cleveland (0-3)

Baltimore(2-1)   vs.          Pittsburgh (3-0)               

Denver (1-2)      vs.          Tennessee (2-1)

San Fran (0-3)    vs.          Atlanta (2-1)

Indy (2-1)            vs.          Jacksonville (1-2)

Houston (2-1)    vs.          Oakland (1-2)

Wash (1-2)         vs.           Philadelphia (2-1)

Arizona (1-2)      vs.          San Diego (1-2)

Chicago (3-0)      vs.          N Y Giants (1-2)

Monday, October 4

New Eng (2-1)   vs.          Miami (2-1)

Picks

Away                                                                    Home

Sunday, October 3

NY Jets(2-1)        vs.          Buffalo (0-3)

Pick: NY Jets

Yes this looks like a trap game for the Jets, and yes the Bills put up 30 points on New England.  However, New York has a much better defense than NE, and they can pound the ball away at a suspect rushing defense.  The Bills won’t be able to put up points and match the Jets offense that I think will be more ball control this game.  Sanchez won’t throw four picks in one game like last year.

Seattle (2-1)       vs.          St. Louis (1-2)

Pick:  St. Louis

The Rams are quietly improving and gaining confidence each game this week.  A lot of this comes from their new QB, Sam Bradford, but a lot has to do with their defense.  Seattle on the other hand is not that good on defense and can only score about 14 points if their opponent doesn’t give them gifts.  Seattle is fools gold and should only be picked to win at home this year.  Their winning record will quickly deteriorate.

Carolina (0-3)     vs.          New Orleans (2-1)

Pick: New Orleans

Carolina is just not very good.  The Saints should rack up the points in this one and make Drew Brees fantasy owners happy.

Detroit  (0-3)      vs.          Green Bay (2-1)               

Pick: Green Bay

Not much to figure out here.  Green Bay is not in a good mood and will be out to beat up on an improving Detroit team after losing a nail biter on MFN in which they had a team record 18 penalites.  The Pack win by 17 points.

Cincinnati (2-1)  vs.          Cleveland (0-3)

Pick: Cleveland

Cincy has made a lot of mistakes on offense so far this year and I think that they give a couple of gifts in the form of fumbles, penalties, and interceptions.  Carson Palmer really appears to be nearing the end of his career in Cincy with extremely poor decision making and fundamentals.  Cleveland has the hall of fame bound Peyton Hillis.  The Browns almost beat the Ravens and will look to win a close one against the Bengals.  I love picking divisional upsets and I am putting my stamp on this one.

Baltimore(2-1)   vs.          Pittsburgh (3-0)               

Pick: Baltimore

I really want to stop picking against Pittsburgh, but this is a trap game for the Steelers.  They are playing Charlie batch against a divisional opponent that has confidence winning in their stadium.  The Ravens are finally getting their offense together and Flacco has stopped making dumb decisions.  I expect a better game plan to include Ray Rice this week and the Ravens defense to take advantage of the Steelers QB situation.

Denver (1-2)      vs.          Tennessee (2-1)

Pick: Tennessee

Denver has a good shot to win this game, but I don’t like Orton on the road.  Even though he has shown a lot of improvement this year the clutch moments in the red zone and the fourth quarter make it difficult to believe that Denver can pull out the win.  Denver has shown they like to shoot themselves in the foot on the road against J-Ville and I expect the same here.  With no running game Orton throws at least one pick and has difficulty converting third downs.  I also see Denver getting gashed by Tennessee’s running game.  This could actually get ugly for Denver.  I hate to do it, but I have Denver going 1-3 in this one and only managing 17 points.

San Fran (0-3)    vs.          Atlanta (2-1)

Pick: Atlanta

The Falcons are looking better and better on defense and their offense is making able to score points to keep up with any team.  I expect a blowout as a desperate 49er team will implode behind interceptions from Alex Smith.  He may even get benched in the second half in this game.

Indy (2-1)            vs.          Jacksonville (1-2)

Pick: Indy

The Jags are on a downward Spiral and Manning is looking about as good as ever.  I think the Colts win this handily by at least two touchdowns as they won’t play as well as Denver did.

Houston (2-1)    vs.          Oakland (1-2)

Pick:  Houston

Almost want to pick Oakland here for the upset, but  I think the Texans will rebound from there las to Dallas and be able to focus.  Oakland will probably play Houston tough early, but eventually give way to bgi pass plays and then Foster will begin to take over.

Washington  (1-2)         vs.             Philadelphia (2-1)

Pick: Philly

Michael Vick is super hot right now and will be able to go toe to toe with McNabb.  The Redskins have the better matchup, but the advantage won’t be enough keep the Ealge’s playmakers at bay on the road.  Shanahan is still missing too many pieces to go on the road and beat better teams. 

Arizona (1-2)      vs.          San Diego (1-2)

Pick: San Diego

No way the Chargers drop this game unless Philip Rivers gets shot. I expect the Cahrgers to dominate the Cardinals in every single way.  I don’t care how bad their special teams are Chargers win by 20 at home against the futile Cards.

Chicago                (3-0)      vs.          N Y Giants (1-2)

Pick: Chicago

The only question about the Bears is “When will Cutler blow up”?  That game could come this week, but I think he will actually have a big numbers game against an awful Giants defense.  This is the pick I am most worried about because Cutler could throw four picks, but Martz seems to have reigned in the completely stupid aspects of Cutler’s game and brought it down a dull roar of stupidity.

Monday, October 4

New Eng (2-1)   vs.          Miami (2-1)

Pick: Miami

The Patriots are no longer good on defense.  Any team that wants to beat them just needs to start passing.  Brandon Marshall will have another big game and the Pats will be hard pressed to win their division after this week.  Tom Brady doesn’t have the level of supporting cast and play calling he once did.  Maybe he should cut his hair and we will stop playing like a girl.

Alot of movement this week as teams finally were able to get to have matchups that ment something.  I really wanted to rank the Broncos hgiher because they played a good game to stay in it  with the Colts, but ultimately They are 1-2 and have only beaten the Seahawks.  The other 1-2 teams ranked ahead of them are the Vikings, Cowboys, Redskins, and Chargers.   I have the Steelers as a new #1 because they show no sings of slowing down and are now playing dominant football.  The Bears have to be number two after their win on MNF over the Pack.  The SAintshave not been playing well enough to stay in the top 5.  They have now lost a close game at home to a good team in Atlanta.  Its still going to take a few week s to sort out the top teams.  Once we get to week 6 there should be clearer lines.

What a difference a year makes.  This time last year the undefeated teams were the Broncos, Colts, Jets, Giants, Saints, Vikings, Jets, and Ravens.

Tier 1 - Elite – Steelers, Bears, Texans, Colts, Jets

Tier 2 - Playoff Quality – Falcons, Saints, Packers, Patriots, Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, Dolphins, Eagles

Tier 3 - Middle of Pack – Titans, Cowboys , Vikings, Seahawks, Broncos, Chargers

Tier 4 - Bad Teams— Jaguars, Giants, Bucs, Cardinals, Raiders, Rams, Lions, Browns

Tier 5 - High School --- Bills, 49ers, Carolina

I think I'll leave off reviewing the Colts game this week as there have been a lot of good posts already.  My bitterness towards my favorite franchise's blunders are too much to take for most Broncos fans on this forum at this point.  I'll wait until next week after we lose to the Titans.  Go Broncos!