SB Nation User Blog: ahtrap

It's darn near 4 AM and I'm still up

ahtrap — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 09:08:05 -0000

Despite not being around these here parts, I did watch most all the game...it was on MLB network, and I'm hoping/fearing that they do the same thing tomorrow, pull in the FSD feed. (It wasn't until the 4th inning that I realized I was watching Mario and Rod, that's how infrequently I've got to see them call a game. I then immediately told my friend whose house I was at to look up the Rod Allen in Japan video, he got a kick out of that.)

But man, again, that was brutal. I was ready to give up in the 8th, but I stuck around to watch, because he had to put the finishing touches on hooking up his new home theater stuff. One runner on, two runners on, no out, a RUN a freaking RUN, Curtis barely escaping getting doubled up on a hard hit liner from Magglio, surely that was a sign, an escape of another sort was at hand, with our big dog at the plate, the tying run just begging to be scored. And instead, a GIDP, the bane of the season. Just brutal, heart renderingly brutal.

Click on through to the other side, if you can deal with some rather morose rambling.

I think I've been into this Tigers team more than any since about 1998, a year that I lived in Detroit, within walking distance of Tigers stadium. That includes the 06 team, which I also followed vicariously, pitch by pitch on yahoo's game cast or whatever. But I wasn't there at the start of that year, and it wasn't until about July or so that I started getting really into it, getting the sense that something was really happening. And even then, I was in freakin' Wisconsin, counting on ESPN to throw me a frickin' bone now and again, or spend another 10-15 bucks to grab dinner and watch at a bar, back when I was a poor grad student. And besides, I had a girlfriend, who wasn't much into baseball at all.

So what I'm trying to say, between all that, and the fact that it was this year that I really jumped whole hog into following along on byb, the fact that it was this year that BYB really came into its own, etc, that I've felt connected with this year's Tigers, and with a group of Tigers fans, in a way that I haven't in at least a decade, and frankly, probably not since 1984, when I was a kid, and we were all jumping up and down on couches celebrating Tigers victories.

And I'm totally rambling, but all that was prelude to this thought: I don't expect the Tigers to win tomorrow, and I don't except Minnesota to lose. But if by some chance either or both of those things happen, I'll be damn glad that the ride is continuing, even if it is only to go to go to the chamber of horrors that is the Metrodome. And, if by some minor miracle, the ride continues beyond that....

Been a heck of a ride, people. Here's to a few more weeks....even as the heart prepares to break yet again....

So what are the possible outcomes, anyway?

ahtrap — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 19:18:13 -0000

7 games to go, 4 against the Twins, 3 against the Sox. 8 different possible records, ranging from absolute disaster (0-7), to sheer bliss (7-0). What's your best guess as to how the Tigers finish off the year?

I was just mulling over the possibilities, and playing with how the endgame might play out, thought I'd share, and see what the rest of you thought.

Worst Case Scenarios 0-7 and 1-6:

If the Tigers lose all 4 to the Twins, it's over. Minnesota would leave Detroit with a 2 game lead, and either getting swept by Chicago, or taking one game leaves no way to catch up.

If the one win occurred against the Twins, it'd still leave Detroit in dire straits, as the Royals would have to match the White Sox sweep to get Detroit to the terror dome for a one game playoff. Minnesota would host the playoff game due to a better head to head record against the Tigers.

Losing records: 2-5, and 3-4:
These scenario would all come down to WHEN the wins came. In the first situation, a 2-5 record overall, if the two wins came against the Twins, Detroit would enter the final series two games ahead of Minnesota, and the Royals would be in full spoiler mode, with one win sending the division to a playoff, and two wins handing Detroit a mostly undeserved crown. If Minnesota leaves Detroit tied with the Tigers, then the Royals would HAVE to win two game to get the division to a playoffs, were the Tigers to win only one against Chicago.

At 3-4, though, the horizons start brightening a bit for Detroit. Three wins against the Twins, and it's over...assuming that a magic number of zero mean clinching, rather than merely clinching a tie.

2 wins against the Twins, and one win against Chicago means that the Twins would have to sweep the Royals to reach the playoff.

1 win against the twins, and 2 versus Chicago, and the Tigers can limp into the playoff even if only Greinke upholds the Royals' honor.

Winning records
At 4-3, with a two game lead, there's no scenario in which the Twins can win the division outright. In their best case scenario, they take 3 out of 4 in Detroit, and leave Copa tied in the standings. However, if the Tigers Sweep the White Sox (words capped to reflect a newspaper headline I hope to see next week), the best Minnesota can do is match it by sweeping the Royals in turn. If that's the case, then we'd be off to the Metrodome for what would hopefully be its last game (again).

At 5-2, 6-1 or 7-0, it doesn't matter, the Tigers have it wrapped up.

Two wins against the Twins puts the Tigers firmly in the driver's seat going into the final series. That's what Detroit needs to do in these next 4 games. Wrapping it up entirely would be great, too, of course, but if we win two out of 4, the Twins would need a minor miracle, sweeping the Royals, and an epic meltdown on the part of the Tigers to win the division.

You'd like to think that isn't possible, but one only needs to look at the last time the Tigers won their division (1987) to see how a late lead can go spectacularly. Heck, for you younguns out there, just remember 2006, and look at the way the Tigers blundered their way into the wild card, before righting the ship in the ALC/DS

Poll

Tigers record over the next 7 games?

5-2, 6-1, 7-0 = Win Division

8 votes

4-3, or 3-4 One game Playoff

1 votes

4-3 or 3-4 Win Division

25 votes

3-4 Lose division

3 votes

2-5 One Game Playoff

1 votes

2-5, 1-6, 0-7 Better Luck Next Year

2 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

Monte Clark has died

ahtrap — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 16:18:02 -0000

Monte Clark has died

Clark was the first Lions coach I was aware of, and he had a couple of decent teams towards the end of his tenure, a missed Eddie Murray FG away from breaking the then 26 year streak of playoffs failures in 1983. Things fell apart in 1984, especially after Billy Sims suffered his career ending injury, and Clark took the fall, paving the way for the Darryl Rodgers nightmare.

Remember how once Andre Smith was considered #1 pick-worthy?

ahtrap — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 03:31:37 -0000

Remember how once Andre Smith was considered #1 pick-worthy?

The guy finally ends his hold out yesterday, and today he breaks a foot in non-contact drills. The Bengals picked up a snakebit player with that pick...

Buster Olney really on a Alcides Escobar kick

ahtrap — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 07:09:11 -0000

Buster Olney really on a Alcides Escobar kick

Two days in a row, Olney mentions Escobar, this time in an account of taking his 5 year old to the youngster's first game, and the great impression the shortstop made on the kid just a few plays into the game.

Is Caleb Campbell the next Herschel Walker?

ahtrap — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 23:35:59 -0000

Is Caleb Campbell the next Herschel Walker?

Former Lions 7th round pick taking a shot at bobsledding. Says he's not giving up his NFL dream yet, though. Good luck to him....gotta say, though, I hope he doesn't qualify for the Olympics, only to have the Army say he can't compete at the last second....

What a year it's been for Pensburgh...on so many levels....

ahtrap — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 18:53:50 -0000

Thinking back to "happier" times for myself, I went looking for the game thread from last year's SCF clinching game.

The Link posted here is to the Pensburgh game thread for last year's Stanley Cup clincher, June 4, 2008, the night the Red Wings won their 11th Stanley Cup, and, given the events of last Friday night, a lifetime, and then some away, now.

I'm sharing the link for a couple of reasons. Not only am I trying alleviate the hockey depression that's befallen me the past week (beyond checking out a few highlights, peeking at a couple of SBN blogs, and reading some of your fanposts, haven't really paid attention much to the post series goings on, as might be expected), but also, to highlight the incredible growth of Pensburgh over the past 12 months. If you look at that game thread, you'll see approximately 8 posters, including D.O. from Die by the Blade (Sabres), Mike @ MHH (Avalanche), Rangers fan cityhockeyfever, Seattle football guy SSReporters, and three Red Wings fans. Outside of a first minute cameo from a "Rather Dashing", Frank was the only primarily Pens fan in the building.

We got to 335 comments on the night, not a bad number for the number of people we had, and it was a lively enough, and above all polite time, which was part of the reason I came back and stuck around all this year....but the point I'm really trying to make here is perhaps best seen by taking a look at the game thread of game 7 of this year's SCF, or, really, for any of the game threads all along during the playoffs, where this Pittsburgh Penguins blog was amply represented by Pittsburgh Penguin fans.

It's more than slightly ironic that, as a Red Wings fan foremost, I can still say, in a crotchety old man's voice, that "I was here when...." Bottom line, though, having been witness to the growth of this website over the past year, here's a hearty congrats to Frank, and Hooks and JD and Lavender, and to all the rest of you crazy Pens fans....

It wasn't Hossa that was the Phantom Menace...

ahtrap — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 20:01:56 -0000

It wasn't Hossa that was the Phantom Menace...

Though, I still say Mario has some incriminating pictures somewhere....but, no, the real ticking time bomb the Pens planted in the Red Wings dressing room was none other than...(insert dramatic music here)....THE CURSE OF TY CONKLIN!

congrats, y'all

ahtrap — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 07:38:46 -0000

I'm wasted, devastated, and all sorts of out of sorts, so, there may be things in here that I regret in the morning, but so be it....but your team got the job done and they are the kings of the hockey world this night, and for that, congratulations. Enjoy it...and enjoy the oversized targets that just got drawn on the back of those black and champagne (seriously, what color is that tan-ish stuff, anyway, officially?)

So now begins the season of your content, my discontent, as the Red Wings try to figure out what the hell went wrong, and where they could have scraped up just one stinking goal in either of the last two games to give them an overtime shot. As most of you seem to recognize in the game thread and in the overflow, this was a series that really was fought right down to the wire, could have gone either way, yadda yadda, fricking icing on the first goal, blah blah blah, but it didn't. It ended with the Pens returning the favor that the Red Wings gave your home crowd last year, skating the Cup on our ice, and if your reports are to be trusted, the Red Wings faithful returned the same favor your fans gave the Wings last year. As, frankly, should be expected, it's a full on rivalry now, and if only the NHL allowed for more than a couple of games a year to keep that rolling.

Your content, though, won't be entirely painless, as you get to decide which of the complementary pieces to keep, which ones to overpay to retain, etc., how to deal with Hossa when he tries to sign for "the best shot at the cup" (I still say you paid the dude off, maybe Mario made him an offer he couldn't refuse?).

The Red Wings will be back, for another couple of years, at least, before age and the salary cap catch up to the big red machine. The Pens, you'd think, aren't going anywhere in the short term. Maybe we'll do this again next year. Maybe we'll both be knocked out by some upstart in the first round, and learn how San Jose Sharks fans feel. Who knows?

But, for now, put all that shit aside, put all your misplaced hatred of the city of Detroit and its people aside, forget what you think about the Red Wings as a team, and revel in this fact:

You wanted the best, you got the best....and now you are the best.

laugh it up, fuzzballs....

CROSBY SUCKS! CROSBY SUCKS!

ahtrap — Fri, 29 May 2009 18:01:12 -0000

You know, I started scribbling this post on like three different occasions, was gonna make a total joke out of it, like, “This is me shifting into enemy mode!” and all that, complete with nicknames (Fedestink-o!), and eventually ended up canning the idea in favor of, well, whatever the rest of this post becomes.

And it isn’t because of any respect for you guys, cuz how much respect can you have for a bunch of militant pengweeners (cookie for whoever gets the reference)…actually, it’s all about that, I do appreciate your letting me hang around Frank, both in the first place as a hostile, and then over the course of the season, and your thoughts, along with those of Hooks and JDunman (send out an APB!), and the rest of the clowns populating this site became a must read daily stop for me.

Frankly, start or middle of this season, I, nor most of you, saw this rematch coming. When the Pens traded for Guerin, I started calling him third round immediately, because I figured he’dhelp get you past the first round, NO MATTER WHO YOU PLAYED, and I figured that the Pens had a ceiling of the ECF. I also was scared of Cam Ward and Carolina going into the playoffs, and, well, you saw how that turned out.

So, what I’m about to predict might just be homeristic blowhardiness. There’s always some of that on both sides of the equation. But then again, I hope I’ve proven not-clueless enough for this analysis to merit a nanosecond of actual thought, and not just a knee jerk “but what about this, you’re WRONG!’ reaction.

Bettman’s baby boy Cindy ain’t gonna win a cup this year!

(Umm…err..woops, that’s the frenemy post I wanted to scribble coming out again….let’s try that again…)

There’s been a lot of focus on how much the Pens have improved, and whether that will be enough to overcome the perceived talent advantage of the Red Wings. Some Pens fans say (using a BS strawman frame, which I usually hate, so I’m calling myself out on it), sure, we lost Hossa, BUT THAT JUST MEANS OUR WHOLE TEAM WILL BE GUNNING FOR HIM! WOOOO! Except, as Malsby points out in his excellent frontpaged post, a significant portion of the current Pens weren’t there last year. For those who were, maybe they get the idea that when you rent a player, there’s a chance that player will walk, witness the Milwaukee Brewers and CC Sabathia last year. Perhaps, in comparison to that situation, there are players in that locker room who don’t look askance at a guy foregoing the biggest money (Sabathia going to the Yankees) to take a shot where he thinks he’s got the best chance for a Cup.

Put it this way, I’m of the opinion that the Pens vs Hossa hype is overblown, and while each would love the chance to show that the other is wrong, it’s a side issue to the circus that is the SCF.

If the Pens are gonna win, Detroit injuries will play a role. Last year, Detroit cruised to an easy victory (the Pens taking it to the 6th game notwithstanding) in large part because Sid was hurt and Geno hit the wall. This year, it’s the Pens that are largely intact, with Gonchar’s knee perhaps equal to Franzen’s concussion issue from last year, and it’s Detroit that are the walking wounded going into the Finals. I mean, at this point, who know what a “lower body injury” means? Did Lidstrom take a puck to the groin at any point of the ECF game 3? But not knowing how well Lidstrom or Datsyuk are going to play…or not being able to count on their usual, high level performances, anyway, should give every Red Wings fan pause.

More than that, however, the Pens hopes will rise because they’ve been here before, and they’ve seen close at hand what it takes to win the Stanley Cup. Last year, it was being done to them, and Pens fans have to hope that they take those lessons learned, and use them against the teachers from last year. Add to that the change in guiding philosophies, from Therrien’s tighter styles, to Bylsma’s more aggressive, more attacking hockey, which better fits the personnel the Pens have, including the 2 stars, and the Pens overall product at this point of the playoffs is better than what they had going into the SCF last year. I’d even argue the product is significantly improved, for reasons pointed out in other posts on this site.

The question, then, as everyone seems to acknowledge, is whether it’s enough to overcome the Red Wings, still the acknowledged masters. As are the Pens more experienced, so too are the Red Wings. And I’m not talking about the old goats, the Lidstroms or the Drapers of the world. I’m not even talking about the middle aged (for hockey) stars and superstars, the likes of Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Holmstrom, but rather the depth of the Red Wings, the still in their 20s types like Filpula and Stuart (actually, I just realized I have no idea what age Brad Stuart is) and the gang, including Darren Helm who put on an absolute clinic on the penalty kill against the Hawks on Wednesday before burying the WCF winning goals. This is a kid who has ZERO regular season goals, and now 5 career playoff goals. He’s not on your radars, and yet, he’s going to be an important part of the equation over the next week and change. The time he gets on the ice will necessary fall if Draper and Datsyuk come back healthy, but when he’s out there, Helm is a speed demon and an enthusiastic, if not particularly huge hitter, and as shown Wednesday, he can light the lamp, too. When one of you guys cite Satan as a reason the Pens can win, I mentally cancel him out with Darren Helm.

I go on at length about Helm because he’s a perfect example of the still unparalleled depth the Wings bring to this party, another facet of which becomes clear when you consider that in the WCF, Dan Cleary was the leading goal scorer for the Red Wings. In the course of a year, this guy has gone from a pretty decent trivia answer (First guy from Newfoundland to get his name on the Cup) to a player who’s contributing big goals at opportune times. This binge in the WCF actually started at the end of the Anaheim series, when he was credited/did the dirty work (no matter what you think of the goal (shoulda been waived, but I’ll take it! Especially after the Hossa non goal stolen (by Brad Watson blowing the whistle) earlier in the series) do I have enough parentheses in this sentence? No? How about one more!) to score the series clincher against the Ducks.

I definitely agree with whoever it was on this site that posited that the series will ultimately come down to the winner between the Pens aggression game vs the Wings possession game. But there are enough peripheral pieces in the Wings arsenal to disturb that neat little formula, enough so that I think we might be in for a repeat performance of last year’s end result. I foresee the Red Wings, much to your chagrin, once again parading around the ice at Mellon Arena, holding aloft Lord Stanley’s Cup, having finished the Pens in 6 games.

This is thoroughly a guess, but I see the Pens taking game 1, the Red Wings striking back in games 2 and 3, Pens evening things out at Mellon in 4, before the Red Wings taking care of business at home for game 5, and finishing the season in Pittsburgh. Since this is precisely how I predicted the WCF to go, pardon me for hoping a similar series takes place in the SCF….

All that said, I’ve been able to argue for a Wings win in 7, or a Pens win in 7, too. Frankly, I’ve been able to convince myself that the Pens could win in 6, but as we’ve seen so far these playoffs, the Pens don’t seem to have that home ice closeout in them this year, so if Pittsburgh is going to win, it’ll be in 5 or 7 at JLA. Since I haven’t been able to convince myself of the 5 game scenario, either way, if the Pens win, it’ll have to be a game 7….

Have at it, droogies.