SB Nation User Blog: all4tookie

Simple xBABIP Calculator

all4tookie — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 12:28:04 -0000

Simple xBABIP Calculator

We spend a lot of time arguing over just how lucky Cardinals hitters have or haven't been this season. This excel tool via THT has been proven to be quite predictive in regards to future BABIP performance.

With great power comes great responsibility - consider this a call for everyone to punk your favorite Met fan whipping boy now that you can clearly explain why David Wright is destined to finish behind Albert for the all-important batting title.

Off-day Musings Vol. II - First to 40, But Not Zirconium

all4tookie — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 18:54:59 -0000

Ok, I know it's not an off-day, so the second installment of what I hope becomes a regular fanpost doesn't exactly live up to its name. But I got an idea during my latest endeavor (Infinite Jest - worth the time, Spants!) that I couldn't wait until July 5 to share because I think it is very illuminating and worthwhile as we approach the halfway mark of the season.

The Redbirds are the first to 40 wins in the NL Central. Awesome. But how did we get there? Which way are we headed? Is this first-place position sustainable? Slow down, people. One question at a time.

Let's start with the offense. In O-DMVI, I presented our then struggles in terms of a declining BB% by month. Here, I want to take a more comprehensive look at the offense's contribution to our win total as the season has progressed. I have chosen to do so in terms of WPA (Win-probability added, or the difference in win expectancy between the start of each individual play and the end of the play). Batters' cumulative WPA graphically:

As you can see by the bat-with-birds-on-it colored line, we came out white-hot on offense, propelling the team to a great early start. In mid-May, however, we started a disastrous skid that turned our cumulative WPA well into negative territory for the season. Thanks to a recent surge we currently sport a -0.26 WPA on offense, good for 15th in MLB and 7th in the NL. Those numbers are passable, but not anything that is going to get the job done if we have title aspirations. Even more concerning is the fact that if the GOB were somehow to take Albert (and his 3.4 WPA) away from us, we would be sitting at -3.66, 25th in MLB and 11th in the NL. Albert Pujols is ridiculous.

On the flip side of the coin, I don't think anyone could have predicted just how outstanding our pitching performance has been this year. It really hits home when you see pitchers' WPA graphically:

Wow. Our pitchers really turned it on at the right time, just as our offense began to struggle. The staff has combined for 4.258 WPA, which is 5th in MLB and 4th in the NL. Especially outstanding was the five game stretch starting May 19, where the pitchers put up WPAs of .462, .612, .465, .454, and .369 consecutively. For an elementary lesson for those of you less familiar with WPA and WE, each team starts out with a WE of .500 for the game. So by adding an incremental .462, .612, etc. for those games, the pitchers were basically winning games without help from (and sometimes in spite of) the offense.

Now it probably makes sense to combine the two charts and overlay our W-L to see just how we have navigated our way to the top of the standings:

Obviously, when the hitters and pitchers work together, we have had our greatest success, and thankfully the pitchers showed up when the bats were afraid.

Now the fun part: where can we expect to fall at the end of the season? If we extrapolate our previous efforts over the whole season, we get a trendline that looks like this...

...which accumulates to a total of roughly 93 wins for the season. 93 wins seems about right for this rudimentary projection: our offense is bound to be better and our pitching likely won't be quite as good. That should be good enough to put us right in the thick of the playoff hunt, and with a little luck maybe even a division title. I know vivaelpujols has done some work and regression on how many wins it likely takes in a given year to reach the playoffs, so maybe he can help us out a little.

For fun, here is a breakdown of our best/worst offensive/pitching performances:

Go team.

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Notes, caveats, etc.

All data taken from FanGraphs.

When I say pitchers, I really mean pitchers and defense.

WPA is by no means perfect. It is important to understand what is being presented here. WPA measures contributions to wins, not actual value, if that makes sense. So the offense and defense could have an awesome day, but each be credited with only half of the .500 WPA. In other words, if the offense is great and pitchers suck, the offense will get more credit in that game than in a game where it was similarly awesome but the pitching was decent. Also, it can be biased sometimes. A-Rod got a huge boost in WPA just by having Castillo drop that fly ball a couple weeks ago (and K-Rod was unduly punished).

Off-day Musings Vol. I - A Taste of Our Own Medicine

all4tookie — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 18:57:38 -0000

The maladies that have afflicted the 2009 edition of the St. Louis Cardinals are well-tread territory here at VEB. Questionable roster management, untimely injuries, sub-par performances, and a thousand other factors have contributed to the thirty losses accumulated this season. The most glaring of these issues, of course, is the ~~pedestrian~~ offense (pedestrians walk). With some free time before a date with our favorite World Series whipping boys, now is as good a time as any to take a look at the offensive 2009 Cardinals and identify some areas for improvement.

It is no secret that our offense has struggled to score runs. After coming out of the gate scoring a blistering 5.8 R/G in April, the Redbirds have regressed to 3.5 and 3.6 R/G in May and June, respectively. Unsurprisingly, our winning percentage has followed suit, falling from .696 in April to .481 in May and .357 in June. Since May 1, the Cards are just 18-23. The question then: what has changed? On the offensive side:

Month	BB/K	K% - 1	BB% - 2	In play% - 3	OBP	SLG	OPS	RS/G
April	0.74	14.7%	10.9%	74.4%	.369	.450	.819	5.8
May	0.48	16.5%	7.9%	75.7%	.299	.389	.688	3.5
June	0.30	16.7%	5.0%	78.3%	.288	.389	.677	3.6

Even the quickest of glances at this data reveals an alarming trend: our BB% has plummeted and has dragged our OBP, OPS, and runs down with it. The Cardinals offense has become the ideal Dave Duncan opponent: a bunch of free-swinging hackers who aggressively put the ball in play. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if an offense is achieving what the pitchers are striving for, success is going to be limited.

Some more disparaging June numbers besides our minuscule 5.0% BB%: for the month, the Cards have swung at more pitches out of the zone (30.7%) than 28 other MLB teams (the Dodgers lead the league swinging at just 19.5%). Even worse, the Redbirds have swung at the most pitches of any team in general, hacking at 51.9% of offerings in June. Whether a concerted approach handed down by the coaches or simply a display of the lack of plate discipline skills, this trend of aggression is choking the team of its ability to get on base and score runs.

Here is an even further examination, with our offensive performance broken down by opponent:

Opponent	BB/K	K%	BB%	In play%	OBP	SLG	OPS	RS/G
Mets	1.50	8.3%	12.5%	79.2%	.441	.584	1.025	7.7
Royals	0.81	14.3%	11.6%	74.1%	.352	.372	.724	4.0
Astros	0.68	17.0%	11.6%	71.4%	.413	.474	.887	6.3
Brewers	0.69	15.9%	11.1%	73.0%	.288	.337	.625	2.8
Diamondbacks	0.93	10.8%	10.0%	79.2%	.360	.468	.828	6.7
Nationals	0.61	15.7%	9.6%	74.8%	.304	.450	.754	5.3
Cubs	0.51	18.3%	9.3%	72.4%	.330	.458	.788	4.7
Giants	0.52	17.5%	9.2%	73.3%	.345	.406	.751	3.7
Reds	0.43	17.6%	7.7%	74.7%	.320	.415	.735	4.1
Pirates	0.51	14.5%	7.4%	78.1%	.319	.413	.732	4.0
Indians	0.35	16.2%	5.7%	78.1%	.248	.313	.561	2.0
Braves	0.23	24.5%	5.7%	69.8%	.267	.216	.483	3.0
Phillies	0.67	7.5%	5.0%	87.5%	.312	.429	.741	4.0
Rockies	0.21	20.6%	4.4%	75.0%	.230	.336	.566	2.3
Marlins	0.25	13.2%	3.3%	83.5%	.350	.483	.833	7.3

An interesting point to note here is that Cards are 12-6 vs. opponents who walk us in >10% of plate appearances, but just 22-24 against those who walk us less than that while scoring a full run less per game - 4. The Phillies and Marlins were especially good at being Good Cardinal Pitchers, each inducing balls in play at a greater than 80% clip.

So what do we need? More bad news? If you insist. Without Sr. José Alberto Pujols Alcántara, this offense would have the following combined line: .246/.303/.379/.682. That, my friends, is what we humans like to call piss-ass poor. That is roughly the equivalent of sending 9 Adam Everetts up there, a far cry from being a contender with the class of the National League (even if we were to add the top trade rumors).

Even this blackish green lightning-filled humongous funnel cloud has a silver lining, though: the offense has been extremely unlucky in regards to BABIP (27th - .283). With the amount of balls the Cards are putting into play, more are bound to fall eventually and that .288 June OBP will rise dramatically. I hope anyway.

I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on the status of our offense. Is the lack of discipline the problem? The absence of real power outside of Pujols? Maybe someone with better batted ball stats skills can illuminate the point for all of us. I just want us to score, and score a ton. I doubt hitting it to the pitcher is going to serve us all that well this time around with the Tigers.

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6/16 ADDENDUM: I have never been happier to write the word "addendum" in my life.

After all my off-day whining and complaining (which certainly caught the ear of the organization due to my authoritative status and brilliance), the Redbirds decided it would be fun walk in exactly 10% of their PAs on their way to this line against Verlander & Co.: .400/.462/.714/1.176. For those of you keeping track at home, they also K'ed in 17.5% of PAs, meaning 72.5% resulted in a ball in play (well off the June average).

We made the jump from Adam Everett to Babe Ruth! Love small samples! The Bambino's career line: .342/.474/.690/1.164.

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Notes, caveats, etc.

Data taken from Fangraphs and Baseball Musing's play-by-play database.

Yes, I am aware I suck at HTML tables. Yes, I could have googled it and fixed it in 3 minutes. No, you can't force me to learn.

Footnotes:

K%: defined as K / PA. I used PAs instead of ABs to be comparable to BB%.
BB%: defined as BB / PA.
In play%: defined as (PA - K - BB) / PA. This is not perfect as it includes HBP, but wanted it to tie to my previous formulas, i.e. 1 - (K% + BB%).
I realize this is one step above BBTN factoid analysis. Completely cherry-picked and not necessarily telling. But it supported my point, so I am using it. Sorry, nerd.

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Ed. note: Many thanks to SleepyCA for a clarification on BB% calculation. Numbers now reflect the correction.

Jeter vs. Ozzie, et al.

all4tookie — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:32:11 -0000

After hearing countless arguments about the merits of Jeter as a baseball fan living in New York, this is an objective attempt to compare him to the greats of recent generations.

Growing up in southern Indiana, the Wiz was and is naturally a hero of mine. I was a valiant defender of him as the greatest SS ever, and didn't meet much resistance given my geographic location. After college, though, I moved out here to NYC and my views have been adamantly ridiculed, with many people making the case that Oz isn't even the best SS of my lifetime, citing Yount, Ripken, and Jeter as more valuable.

I thought that Yount and Ripken at least had a defensible case, but was convinced that the Jeter argument had to be completely biased. Everyday someone is praising Jeter's calm eyes and clutch ability and cute butt or whatever else that doesn't matter, and there was no way he could stack up to the Wiz in actual value in my mind. So like any robot making an argument in a bar, I crunched some data from baseballprojection.com and tried to objectively compare them.

I had read a piece by Sky Kalkman a few weeks back that graded Boggs (the good one), Gwynn, and Ripken, and his methodology is shamelessly stolen here.

First, I looked at WAR for each of their seasons (more applicable than VORP because defense is clearly the deciding factor here, given the amount of times someone on the YES network says "Past a diving Jeter"):

(sorry if the graphs are a little fuzzy, click on them for a clearer view)

As you can see, Jeter is pretty much in line or better than these guys for most of his career. He definitely outperformed Ozzie at the beginning as a youngster, with Oz outperforming him as the two aged. This makes sense as it is probable that defensive skills diminish less quickly than offense in a PED-free scenario.

It also makes sense to compare the two via a perspective of dominance vs. longevity, so I sorted this data by each player's best season:

So what have I learned from all this? First, Cal Ripken was good. Really good. Playing in all those games inflated his WAR stats (since it's counting), and "The Streak" really shows its value here.

With respect to Jeter though, the case can definitely be made that he is as valuable as Oz thus far; with Jeter's WAR numbers basically in line with Ozzie's through similar points in their careers. As much as I hate to put someone on that level, these numbers speak for themselves without counting any World Series titles or personal accolades (albeit often frivolous or at least biased in nature) that Yankees fans weigh so heavily.

Jeter looks to be showing signs of age, however, so the ultimate judgment will hinge on whether he can maintain his offensive production to overcome his liability on defense. The jury is still out, but this exercise has proven that Jeter has value not just in intangibles.

Of course, if anyone has any unique perspectives or other metrics on which to judge the two, please share.