SB Nation User Blog: allhailmark

WCG Fantasy Football Season 4

allhailmark — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 23:33:01 -0000

I've been in the WCG Fantasy League for 4 seasons now and I'm looking forward to the fifth. I will be happy to commish if that will help get the next season going. I'm setting up my league at work and thought I might put a note up here. Reply if you're interested and I'll setup the league (and a second if interest warrants it). I think it fair to offer last season's teams right of first refusal to be in the league before adding new members.

No Jump!@$%$^

Roster Status/Projected 2009 Depth Chart

allhailmark — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 00:59:23 -0000

Here's a look at the roster status through 2013 & depth chart based on players currently signed. I'm working on calculating the cap hit/savings for players cut.

Signed to Future/Reserve Contract:

Cody Balogh T

John Broussard WR

Rudy Burgess WR

Joe Clermond DE

Fontel Mines TE

Tyler Reed G

Signed through 2013

Lance Briggs

Robbie Gould

Devin Hester

Charles Tillman

Signed through 2012

Tommie Harris

Frank Omiyale

Brian Urlacher

Nathan Vasher

Chris Williams

Signed through 2011

Ervin Baldwin

Earl Bennett

Zackary Bowman

Alex Brown

Kellen Davis

Matt Forte

Roberto Garza

Marcus Harrison

Hunter Hillenmeyer

Joey LaRoque

Jason McKie

Greg Olsen

Craig Steltz

Signed through 2010

Anthony Adams

Devin Aromashodu

Brett Basenez

Josh Beekman

Desmond Clark

Rashied Davis

Corey Graham

Caleb Hanie

Kevin Jones

Olin Kreutz

Patrick Mannelly

Brad Maynard

Trumaine McBride

Garrett Wolfe

Signed through 2009

Mark Anderson

Dan Buenning

Josh Bullocks

Jason Davis (FB)

Dusty Dvoracek

Marcus Hamilton

Israel Idonije

Danielle Manning

Adewale Ogunleye

Kyle Orton

Adrian Peterson

Brandon Rideau

Nick Roach

John Tait (retired)

Matt Toeaina

Jamar Williams

Departures from 2008 Roster

Marty Booker

Mike Brown

Rex Grossman

Brandon Lloyd

Darrell McClover

Brandon McGowan

Terrence Metcalf

Fred Miller

John St. Clair

Projected Depth Chart

Offense

22 Signed

25 Projected

QB: Orton, Basenez, Hanie

RB: Forte, Jones, Peterson, Wolfe

FB: McKie, JDavis

TE: Olsen, Clark, Kdavis

WR: Hester, Davis, Bennett, Aromashodu, _____, _____

LT: Williams, Omiyale

LG: Omiyale, Beekman

C: Kreutz, Beekman

RG: Garza, Buenning

RT: _____, Omiyale, _____

Notes on Offense:

4 RB on roster, Wolfe possible cut as 4th RB

Jason Davis likely cut as second FB

6 WR likely; Davis possible cut

RT & Swing Tackle likely to be signed

Defense

26 Signed

26 Projected

RDE: Brown, Anderson

LDE: Ogunleye, Idonije, Baldwin

DT: Harris, Harrison

NT: Dvoracek, Adams, Toeaina

WLB: Briggs, Williams

MLB: Urlacher, Hillenmeyer, LaRoque

SLB: Roach, Hillenmeyer

LCB: Tillman, McBride, Hamilton

RCB: Vasher, Graham

NB: Manning, Bowman

FS: Bullocks, Steltz, _____

SS: Payne, Steltz

Notes on Defense:

DE Baldwin likely to be replaced

DE Idonije also depth at DT

7 CB's signed; Possible cut to 6

FS Steltz to battle Bullocks; addition likely

Special teams

2 Signed

2 Projected

K: Gould

P: Maynard

Jerry Angelo Draft Success Rate

allhailmark — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 14:13:43 -0000

I almost never post but I read often. I do this every couple years when people start saying that Angelo can't draft. I don't necessarily intend to argue that point one way or the other, but I like to bring up some statistical evidence for the group to debate.

Here are my calculations. It's all based on the definition of success. Rd 1-3 should be a starter or better. Rd 4-7 should be depth or better. More info on that below.

Definition of Success

To quantify the success of a draft, I've developed 5 classes of players in the NFL. Each draft pick will be assigned to one of the classes for calculation purposes. This is the only “human judgment” that takes place. I'll generally assign the pick to the highest level that they achieved, but there is some judgment involved there (you'll notice I did not call Craig Krenzel a starter).

ProBowl: Player has made the PB
Starter: Player has been a regular starter
Depth: Player provided quality depth
Fodder: Player limited mainly to ST or buried in roster
Out of NFL: Player didn't stick on the roster

Round 1-3: Starter or better (60.9% success rate)
Round 4-7: Depth or better (45.0% success rate)

Rd 1 Success Rate = 85.7%
Rd 2 Success Rate = 71.4%
Rd 3 Success Rate = 33.3%
Rd 4 Success Rate = 77.8%
Rd 5 Success Rate = 61.5%
Rd 6 Success Rate = 25%
Rd 7 Success Rate = 10%

I've assigned every pick Angelo has made (his first draft was 2002 when our first pck was Marc Columbo). There are certainly some decisions that could be questioned. Here's how I've classified them:

2008
1 Chris Williams - Starter
2 Matt Forte - Starter
3 Earl Bennett - Fodder
3 Marcus Harrison - Depth
4 Craig Steltz - Depth
5 Zack Bowman - Depth
5 Kellen Davis - Depth
7 Ervin Baldwin – Out of NFL
7 Chester Adams – Out of NFL
7 Joey LaRocque - Fodder
7 Kirk Barton - Fodder
7 Marcus Monk - Fodder

2007
1 Greg Olsen - Starter
2 Dan Bazuin – Out of NFL
3 Garrett Wolfe – Depth
3 Michael Okwo – Out of NFL
4 Josh Beekman - Starter
5 Kevin Payne - Starter
5 Corey Graham – Depth
7 Trumaine McBride – Depth
7 Aaron Brant – Out of NFL

2006
2 Danieal Manning - Starter
2 Devin Hester – ProBowl
3 Dusty Dvoracek - Starter
4 Jamar Williams – Depth
5 Mark Anderson – Depth
6 J.D. Runnels – Out of NFL
6 Tyler Reed - Fodder

2005
1 Cedric Benson - Starter
2 Mark Bradley – Depth
4 Kyle Orton - Starter
5 Airese Currie – Out of NFL
6 Chris Harris - Starter
7 Rod Wilson - Fodder

2004
1 Tommie Harris - ProBowl
2 Tank Johnson - Starter
3 Bernard Berrian - Starter
4 Nathan Vasher – ProBowl
4 Leon Joe - Fodder
5 Claude Harriott – Out of NFL
5 Craig Krenzel – Out of NFL
7 Alfonso Marshall – Out of NFL

2003
1 Michael Haynes – Out of NFL
1 Rex Grossman - Starter
2 Charles Tillman - Starter
3 Lance Briggs – ProBowl
4 Todd Johnson - Fodder
4 Ian Scott - Starter
5 Bobby Wade – Depth
5 Justin Gage - Starter
5 Tron LaFavor – Out of NFL
6 Joe Odom - Fodder
6 Brock Forsey – Out of NFL
7 Bryan Anderson – Out of NFL

2002
1 Marc Colombo - Starter
3 Roe Williams – Out of NFL
3 Terrence Metcalf – Depth
4 Alex Brown - Starter
5 Bobby Gray – Depth
5 Bryan Knight – Out of NFL
6 Adrian Peterson – Depth
6 Jamin Elliott – Out of NFL
6 Bryan Fletcher – Out of NFL

Willie Anderson to Ravens

allhailmark — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 13:13:53 -0000

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080904/SPT02/309040100/1055/NEWS

Willie Anderson will sign a 3 year, $11M contract with the Ravens. Missed opportunity for the Bears to add a proven T. A lot of people will say it's too much money, but it's not all guaranteed money. Depending on the bonus amount and contract structure it could be a reasonable amount.

Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler

Schlereth in soap operas

allhailmark — Tue, 26 Jun 2007 10:29:51 -0000

Sports Illustrated reported that Stink is taking a recurring role on the soal opera "Guiding Light." His character: Detective Roc Hoover.

This guy better not start ragging on the Bears again given this little nugget. The big question for me is, how will they fit the other actors on screen at the same time?

Rivera

allhailmark — Sun, 21 Jan 2007 12:04:41 -0000

The Steelers named Viking's DC Mike Tomlin their new head coach.
The Dolphins have Cam Cameron...
the Cardinals have Whisenhunt...
the Falcons have Petrino...

Leaving the Raiders as the only Head Coaching gig in football. I hope Rivera doesn't take that job just because it's so lousy. (I don't know if he's a candidate or not, by the way)

Next year there may be some coaching vacancies if some crap teams don't show some surprising improvement:
Bills
Giants
Bucs?
Or if some longtime coaches retire/etc:
Cowboys
Seahawks
Chargers

Whatever happens, all the best to Chico

Poll

Should Rivera Take the Raiders Gig

No Way! - The Raiders Suck

4 votes

No Way! - Al Davis is Cray & The Raiders Suck

24 votes

Yes - It's a Head Coaching Job

2 votes

No Way! - Al Davis is Crazy

1 votes

31 votes | Poll has closed

Troy Smith

allhailmark — Fri, 15 Dec 2006 04:27:19 -0000

Most draft pundits are calling Troy Smith a late first round pick. If available - would you take him? He reminds me a lot of McNabb becaue of his ability to buy time with scrambling. Rex has one more year, Griese will be around for several years. I think Smith could be a real stud - What do you guys think?

Mark Bradley

allhailmark — Wed, 15 Nov 2006 11:57:00 -0000

What does everyone think of Bradley's return? My gold standard of him is the famous Detroit game where he was 5 for 85 before halftime. For his first game back I think 4 for 79 with a Touchdown is pretty outstanding. Of course the TD was a quasi-blown coverage - he would have been open anyway. What do you all expect out of Bradley in the next few weeks?

Listen to Bears Games Online for FREE

allhailmark — Sun, 10 Sep 2006 22:22:38 -0000

http://www.wbbm780.com/

It always beats Fox's announcers. There's a minor delay so if you're watching you may want to pause your Tivo so you can listen/watch in sync. The other benefit is not listening to Fox color guys kiss Favre's rear end. Is that 300 yet? Not quite....I wonder how many more carries Benson gets...

My take on Bears Draft

allhailmark — Sat, 21 Jan 2006 16:58:00 -0000

TE is the biggest hole on the team. Clark is no #1 and is a band-aid of a solution.
Take a pass catcher and give Rex a bail out option over the middle.

The only other #1 worthy pick is a CB. Personally, I think the CB's haven't played that great overall. Not to take anything away from Vasher, he catches anything around him, but a lot of his picks came on badly thrown balls, a credit to the pass rush. Tillman can be great, but mixes it with a gambling style that gives up lots of deep balls.

My breakdown of team needs follows:

Unit by Unit -
DL - Set (no picks)
LB - Backup would help (3rd or 4th rounder)
CB - Backup/Upgrade (2nd round/1st round)
S - Backup (3rd rd or later)

RB - Set (no picks)
WR - Most interesting argument, with Moose a lock and Bradley & Berrian emerging as solid 2/3 receivers, Currie getting healthy for the slot receiver job and Gage/Berlin a fine #5 receiver -A #3/4 Reciever in the draft would be okay, but more likely to be a solid #2 Free Agency Pickup. This really could be a good, deep receiving corps next year (except Moose...zing!).
TE - Most glaring need, (1st rounder). Clark would be a great Red Zone threat as the 2nd TE in the formation.
OL - Backup/Depth would be nice. I like the move to extend Garza as a #1/2G&#2C. Keep Terrence Metcalf as insurance for old and achy Ruben Brown, a solid OT would be good because whenever Tait or Miller goes down with a big injury things could get ugly with only St. Clair in the wings (I won't bother acknowledging Q. Mitchell and his 4 year deal).
QB - Set? Sort of. We have 3 and they'll all be back next year (Sorry, Kittner)

KR/PR - Berrian has done well as PR, but I wouldn't mind having someone else take those blind hits. While we're at it, find someone who's a #1 KR and PR and use Berrian only if necessary.
K/P - Gould is fine, Maynard was fine (sort of), but who knows what golden leg wonder is out there?

My guess at the draft:
Rd 1: TE
Rd 2: CB with solid return skills
Rd 3: OT
Rd 4: S
Rd 5: K/P/WR
Rd 6: LB
Rd 7: CB