SB Nation User Blog: ams258

If tiebreaker needed, Mets to host Brewers for NL wild card - MLB

ams258 — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 20:51:47 -0000

If tiebreaker needed, Mets to host Brewers for NL wild card - MLB

A little good news

Why Is Carlos Delgado Getting MVP Consideration?

ams258 — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:37:26 -0000

(promoted from fanposts. --eric)

I'm thrilled that Delgado is having such a great second half for the Mets, but he has a lower VORP lower than Reyes, Wright, and Beltran. Even just looking at conventional stats, it's clear that those three are having superior seasons to Delgado. Check it out:

Player	HR	RBI	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Reyes	13	56	47	13	.300	.359	.478
Wright	27	106	14	5	.291	.380	.513
Beltran	23	100	20	3	.278	.369	.488
Delgado	35	103	1	1	.266	.350	.518

Reyes offers phenomenal baserunning and has fantastic offensive production for a shortstop. Other than homers and a slight discrepancy in slugging percentage, Wright has been superior to Delgado in all offensive categories and has a significant advantage in OBP, the most important offensive stat. And although I wouldn't classify third base as a premium defensive position, it is certainly more difficult to find a good hitting third baseman than first baseman, so Wright offers more value for his position than Delgado. Beltran's numbers are comparable to Wright's, and Beltran plays fantastic defense at a difficult position to play.

The bottom line is that Wright, Beltran, and Reyes offer the Mets great production while playing positions that the Mets would have difficulty finding suitable replacements if any of those three players were injured. Imagine the offensive dropoff if the Mets had to replace Reyes with Damion Easley in their lineup on a daily basis. Delgado, on the other hand, offers poor defense at a position that pretty much anyone besides Mike Piazza can play, so his stats would not be as difficult to replace if the Mets lost him.

There's no denying it - Carlos Delgado has had a nice year, and I would not be at all upset if the Mets picked up his option for next year. But the guy has been nowhere near as valuable as the holy trinity of Reyes, Wright, and Beltran. It would be a shame if the sportswriters missed that when they cast their MVP ballots.

Oh, oh, and I almost forgot. Ahh, I'm also gonna need you to go ahead and come in on Sunday, too...

ams258 — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 17:42:01 -0000

I'm stuck at work today (tomorrow too!), and I figured the best way to get back at my boss would be to write a fanpost.

Johan Santana did his best Livan Hernandez impression last night, throwing 121 pitches. My roommates and I yelled at Jerry Manuel to take Santana out after the 6th inning, but I guess he didn't hear us. Santana's high pitch count last night made me wonder though. Manuel got a lot of heat after he took Santana out after 8 innings and 105 pitches in a July 22 game against the Phils that I swear to God did not have a 9th inning, and if you tell me otherwise I will punch you in the ovary. The next time out Santana went 9, and it seemed to me that Manuel has been reluctant to take out his starters since the July 22 debacle. Did this criticism cause Manuel to leave his starters in longer? Before I looked up the stats I thought so, but it turns out that Jerry Manuel did not magically transformed into Dusty Baker after all! Check it out:

Santana's pitch counts and total innings pitched after 7/22:

118 in 9 IP, 103 in 6.1 IP, 104 in 7 IP, 94 in 7 IP, 113 in 9 IP, and 121 in 9 IP.

AVG = 108.83, MEDIAN = 108.5

Pitch counts and total innings from the start of the season through 7/22:

100 in 7 IP, 91 in 7 IP, 113 in 6.2 IP, 105 in 7 IP, 97 in 7 IP, 114 in 5.2 IP, 116 in 6 IP, 116 in 6 IP, 100 in 7.2 IP, 90 in 7 IP, 110 in 7 IP, 107 in 7.2 IP, 100 in 6 IP, 116 in 7 IP, 95 in 6 IP, 106 in 7 IP, 113 in 6 IP, 95 in 8 IP, 78 in 5 IP, 92 in 4 IP, 105 in 8 IP

AVG = 102.81, MEDIAN = 105, MODE = 100

So on average, Santana is only throwing about 6 pitches more per game than he was before the disaster against Philly. And the median difference is only about 3 and a half pitches.

If I weren't at work right now I'd break down the numbers to see how if Santana is throwing a slightly greater amount of pitches because he has been more effective or if there's no real reason for the tiny increase. And I'd love to see if the Mets' other pitchers have been throwing more pitches per game since July 22. In any case, we can rest assured that - last night aside - Jerry Manuel does not seem to be letting Santana throw an absurd amount of pitches during his starts. Hopefully the Mets' current and future managers will keep this up for the rest of the season and throughout Santana's contract.

Mets' Wagner to have tightness in shoulder examined - MLB

ams258 — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:32:34 -0000

Mets' Wagner to have tightness in shoulder examined - MLB

Oh crap.

Yankees have tentative deal with first baseman Sexson - MLB

ams258 — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 18:24:06 -0000

Yankees have tentative deal with first baseman Sexson - MLB

Doh.

Wright replaces Soriano on NL squad

ams258 — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:26:10 -0000

Wright replaces Soriano on NL squad

Better late than never!

Jerry Manuel and Bunts

ams258 — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 21:00:36 -0000

In an effort to figure out whether or not Jerry Manuel is the buntingest bunt who ever bunted, I looked up the number of sacrifice hits for the Chicago White Sox from 1998-2003, which were the years that Manuel managed the team. In those years, the White Sox had the following number of sacrifice hits:

1998 - 38

1999 - 40

2000 - 55

2001 - 63

2002 - 48

2003 - 43

Average - 47.8

Baseball-reference doesn't list where these totals rank in the majors or the American League, so let's compare them to the number of sacrifice hits the Mets had each year under Willie Randolph.

2005 - 69

2006 - 77

2007 - 77

Average - 74.3

So Manuel should order his players to bunt less than Randolph did. Great. Wait, what's that? This isn't a fair comparison because Randolph often (correctly) had his starting pitchers bunt? Okay, well then let's take a look at how many sacrifice hits Joe Torre's Yankees had from 1996-2007. After all, Torre and Randolph have similar managing styles.

1996 - 41

1997 - 34

1998 - 32

1999 - 22

2000 - 16

2001 - 30

2002 - 23

2003 - 25

2004 - 37

2005 - 28

2006 - 34

2007 - 41

Average - 30.25

Uh oh. Manuel's teams bunted significantly more than Proven Winner Joe Torre's did. But maybe Manuel isn't so bad. Let's do one more comparison, this time with everyone's favorite bunter and Manuel's replacement with the White Sox, Ozzie Guillen.

2004 - 58

2005 - 53

2006 - 44

2007 - 41

Average - 49

Crap. Manuel's teams bunted only slightly less than Ozzie Guillen's do. And we all know that no one loves bunts more than Ozzie Guillen. This quick and dirty study is by no means definitive, but it suggests that we can expect lots of small ball from the Mets under Jerry Manuel. At this point, I can't say I'm happy with the Mets decision to make him their manager.

McSweeney's Internet Tendency: Jobs That Have Salaries Arguably Incommensurate With the Work They Entail.

ams258 — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 14:03:05 -0000

McSweeney's Internet Tendency: Jobs That Have Salaries Arguably Incommensurate With the Work They Entail.

In honor of the Mets upcoming series.

ESPN - Piazza, one of greatest hitting catchers in MLB history, retires - MLB

ams258 — Tue, 20 May 2008 20:47:56 -0000

ESPN - Piazza, one of greatest hitting catchers in MLB history, retires - MLB

A sad farewell

Was Willie Randolph Sending a Message to Mets Front Office?

ams258 — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 20:15:42 -0000

Was Willie Randolph Sending a Message to Mets Front Office?

Just speculation, but PLEASE let this be true.