SB Nation User Blog: andeux

50 Ways to Leave Your Runners

andeux — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 20:56:01 -0000

The problem is all your offensive philosophy
The answer is easy if you take a called strike three
I'd like to help you in your quest for LOB
There must be fifty ways to leave your runners
He said we hitters could all manage to collude
Furthermore, the baserunners feet to the bases will stay glued
And we'll repeat it all even though we will be booed
There must be fifty ways to leave your runners
Fifty ways to leave your runners

You just take a weak hack, Jack
Swing like a clown, Brown
You don't need RBI, Ry
Make out number three
Let your bat rust, Cust
You don't hit in the clutch much
Just GIDP Bobby
For out number three

He said it grieves me so to see us score a run
I wish there was something I could do to make the games less fun
I said I hope that we'll end up with draft pick number one
'Cause of the fifty ways

He said why don't we try to earn a DFA
With the bases full we could pop up or get a swinging K
And then I followed him and I grounded into a double play
There must be fifty ways to leave your runners
Fifty ways to leave your runners

You just take a weak hack, Jack
Swing like a clown, Brown
You don't need RBI, Ry
Make out number three
Let your bat rust, Cust
You don't hit in the clutch much
Just GIDP Bobby
For out number three

(Original lyrics here)

12 June 2008 DLD: Links

andeux — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 20:35:57 -0000

Vanity Fair has a long article by ~~Billy Beane~~ Michael Lewis about baseball in Cuba, and the agent who was convicted of smuggling four players into the U.S. Definitely worth the time to read this one.

Apart from that, as the game starts, much is familiar. The managers do dopey things to remind everyone they exist - like bat their best hitter seventh or bunt the D.H. in the top of the first with runners on first and second and nobody out. There are players who clearly like to get dirty and players who don't. The catchers have the same subtle ability to distance themselves from pitchers in trouble - refusing to make eye contact as they hand him a new ball after a home run. Even the body language is the same - right down to the same startling amount of unself-conscious public crotch grabbing when things go wrong.

According to ESPN, the A's may be prepared to outbid "at least seven other teams", including the Yankees, for 16-year old Dominican RHP Michael Inoa. We'll see.

Milton Bradley flipped out:

Milton Bradley stormed out of the Texas Rangers clubhouse after an 11-5 victory Wednesday night over Kansas City and bounded up four flights of stairs looking for Royals television announcer Ryan Lefebvre.
Bradley, who led the AL with a .333 batting average heading into Thursday's games, heard what he considered derogatory remarks made by Lefebvre on a TV in the Rangers clubhouse. General manager Jon Daniels and manager Ron Washington were close behind and intercepted Bradley, who was the designated hitter Wednesday, before he reached Lefebvre.
"I don't want to get necessarily into the details," Daniels said. "He was upset. Someone who doesn’t know him was passing judgment on TV. It was obvious he was hurt by the comments." Bradley never reached Lefebvre, although he was within about 20 feet of him in the TV booth before being led back down to the clubhouse.
"There was no incident," Daniels said.

And Ryan Sweeney went 3/4 with a HR last night on his rehab assignment with Sacramento. Overall, he's hitting .414 there, and is eligible to come off the DL tomorrow. (DFA Brown). Roster moves coming perhaps? (DFA Brown)

A's Offense by Month

andeux — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 23:30:23 -0000

It can be dangerous to try to break down the numbers too much - most of us have a tendency to dismiss some numbers as anomalous, or think others represent a trend, when all we are seeing is statistical noise. Nonetheless, I thought it might be worthwhile to look at how the A's did on offense, both as individuals and as a group, on a month-by-month basis.

I used OPS here because it's readily available, and highly correlated with run scoring, and only included months where the individuals had a significant number of at-bats. Here are the numbers, followed by a few observations (no real analysis):

Apr May June July Aug Sept Total
Barton 1067 1067
Cust 1022 970 757 1063 741 912
Buck 750 1098 808 713 907 851
Swisher 919 1007 648 828 815 833 836
Bradley 786 819
Hannahan 879 738 793
Ellis 724 601 906 661 785 951 777
Johnson 982 684 571 772 758 767
Chavez 771 595 872 780 752
Stewart 642 760 1005 736 615 764 739
Suzuki 573 776 692 735
Murphy 828 712 731
Piazza 705 871 633 794 727
Scutaro 427 775 757 584 864 619 693
Crosby 586 779 505 584 619
Davanon 604 596
Walker 517 580
Kotsay 612 653 575
Kendall 401 472 758 515 542

Team 658 793 760 681 785 774 745

Runs/G 3.8 5 4.3 4 5.2 5.1 4.6
RA/G 3.6 4.1 4 5.3 5.3 5.8 4.7
Record 12-13 14-13 15-13 9-18 17-12 9-17 76-86

The league average was a .761 OPS, and 4.9 runs per game, and the A's actually did better than that in three of the six months - May, when Cust, Buck, Swisher and Johnson were on simultaneous tears, and August and September, when they finally got some of the deader lumber out of the lineup.
On the flip side, April and July were total disasters, with four or five regulars hitting below the Davanon line each month and no one really picking up the slack. June was a disaster of a different sort, as the A's hit like an average team but failed to translate that into runs.
Daric Barton's 1.067 OPS in the three weeks that he played is identical to what Alex Rodriguez (the major league leader) had over the full year. Of course, I don't expect Barton to duplicate that next year, but it's awfully hard not to be excited about his potential. Cust's .912 was tenth in the AL.
As the A's scored more runs in the second half, they also allowed many more as well. This is unfortunately not entirely coincidence. The late-season changes - replacing an ailing Chavez with Hannahan, and Crosby with Scutaro and Murphy, moving Swisher to center field while getting Kotsay out of the lineup, and playing Cust frequently in right - all got better bats into the lineup at the expense of defense.
The outlook for 2008 is, IMO, not so bad: Barton, Cust, Buck, and Swisher should provide a good core to the offense. None of them is likely to have an MVP-type year, but they don't need to either - as long as two or three are hitting well at any time, this team should score some runs. (Buck's ability to stay healthy has to be a real concern, though.) Ellis at 2B and Suzuki at C are decent complementary parts, and we should also be OK at 3B too with either Hannahan or a healthier Chavez. That leaves (as so many other diaries have already said) SS and CF. At SS, neither Scutaro nor Murphy did anything to win a full-time job - start writing those anti-Crosby rants now. For CF, I really hope Denorfia proves worthy of the two pitchers Beane gave up for the right to watch him rehab for the year - even marginal competence (offense and defense) would be better than what we got this year.

Just how bad is Piazza's defense?

andeux — Mon, 21 May 2007 18:14:18 -0000

Have you noticed that Jason Kendall isn't hitting very well this year? And that Jack Cust is? Yeah, me too. Let's suppose for the nonce that Cust doesn't turn back into a pumpkin, or some other variety of large squash, and keeps hitting enough that his spot in the lineup is a given. Whither Mike Piazza? Could he be the A's every day (or every other day) catcher, or is his defense really so bad that Jason Kendall (ugh) is still the better option.

Here's what the numbers say:

Defense:

I'll start by comparing Kendall's defense to Piazza using only last year's numbers:

Inn SB CS E PB A
Kendall 2006 1254 71 31 5 7 54
Piazza 2006 718 97 13 8 7 34
Piazza (proj) 1254 169 23 14 12 59

Piazza threw out runners at a much lower rate than Kendall, and the opposition further took advantage of his weak arm by running more frequently. All told, projecting Piazza's numbers to a full season, he would allow an extra 98 stolen bases, with 8 fewer caught stealing. In addition, Piazza would be responsible for 9 extra errors and 5 extra passed balls.

Using the run values from Tom Tango's work on Base Runs, this is worth approximately:
98*(.198) + 8*(.282) + 9*(.481)+5*(.276) = 27 runs.

That is, I'd expect the A's to allow about 27 more runs over a full season with Piazza as their everyday catcher than with Kendall. And that doesn't include any contribution from range in fielding bunts or other balls around the plate, blocking balls that would be scored as wild pitches, or any supposed effect that Kendall's game calling has on the pitchers' ERA.

Before we move to offense, let's look at how Kendall is doing so far this year, and again project it to a full season:

Kendall 2007 346 33 9 2 6 18
Kendall (proj) 1254 120 33 7 22 65

Using the same formula, compared to last year, Kendall has slipped on defense to the tune of
49*(.198) -2*(.282) + 2*(.481) + 15*(.276) =
14 runs/year, or about half the difference between him and Piazza last year.

Offense:

As I'm only trying to get a rough estimate here, I'm going to use OPS, a simple but crude tool, as a way of measuring offense. There are better ways of doing it, but I'm sure the difference wouldn't amount to more than a couple of runs. Predicting offensive performance is still difficult; putting a run value on that performance once it's happened is much easier, and for our purposes using OPS is good enough.

Let's again start by (mostly) ignoring what Kendall has done in the first couple of months of this season, and look at the previous years instead. In 2005 he had an OPS of .666, and in 2006 .709. Let's suppose he's declined a bit from that, but not to the depths of his 2007 performance, and say he could be expected to have a .650 OPS.

As for Piazza, he's also off to a fairly slow start (.718 OPS) this year, but was at .843 last year, .778 in 2005, and .806 in 2004. So how about a predicted .800 from him.

Now, over the course of a season, each point of team OPS translates into about 2.15 extra runs scored. Supposing that an everyday player gets about 1/10 of his team's plate appearances, this would give a difference of
150 * 2.15 /10 = 32 runs

If we instead use Kendall's actual performace this year (.435 OPS) as the basis of comparison ... well, I'll leave this one as an exercise for the reader. It's too ugly for me to contemplate.

There's one other point worth noting. Because teams are more likely to steal in close games than in blowouts, the extra runs scored will be more highly leveraged than average. So comparing runs saved with the glove to runs produced with the bat probably undervalues the better defensive catcher when it comes to wins and losses.

Conclusion:

Based on their performance over the last couple of years, we can conclude that Kendall and Piazza are surprisingly close in overall value at catcher. What that means for this year is still open for debate.

If you think that Kendall can rebound to his established levels of good-but-not-great defense and passable-but-not-good offense, and you also believe that his game-calling has a tangible effect on the pitching staff, or that Piazza's offense would suffer if he were moved back behind the plate, then it would make sense to stick with Kendall.

On the other hand, if you think that Kendall's awful start is a sure sign of a real decline in abilities compared to what he could do over the last two years, then it's worth tolerating Piazza's awful arm for the upgrade in offense.

Poll

Who do you think will be the regular catcher for the A's at the end of the season?

Jason Kendall

87 votes

Mike Piazza

18 votes

Kendall/Piazza splitting time evenly

32 votes

Adam Melhuse

12 votes

Kurt Suzuki

40 votes

J.D. Closser

1 votes

Jeremy Brown

4 votes

194 votes | Poll has closed

"Fearless"

andeux — Sat, 19 May 2007 05:19:16 -0000

In honor of Barry's return. Original lyrics here.
I'm no monkeyball, but then again Waters and Gilmour ain't exactly Dylan. And I wouldn't want to be too fine.

"Fearless"

You say the zone's too small to find
Find it.
You say you'd like to see me try
Finding.

You miss the plate and I'll take my time
And I'll find
That zone you think so small.
Just wait a while for your "fastball."
And as I walk on down the base lines to the bag
I look round, hearing the sound of the "FITZ" muttered today.

Fearlessly the pitcher faced the plate
Smiling.
Merciless the umpire calls ball eight
Frowning.

And who's the fool who wears the cap?
From the Gap
to the Safeway
And every fifth day is your day
And as you write about the fear-lines on his brim
You look grim, hearing the din at the place you used to win.

Overheard Chez Beane

andeux — Mon, 07 May 2007 19:44:09 -0000

[ring]
Hello, the worlds smartest and handsomest GM speaking...
The worlds toughest, most kick-ass catcher?...
Oh, Jason, hey, good to hear from you, how'd you get this number?...

Your contract extension? [snorts] Oh, sorry, my allergies have really been bothering me. Um, yeah, I've been meaning to get back to you about that, I've just been so busy with the trades. But anyway, yeah, I talked to Lew, and of course he's busy too right now with this whole Fremont thing going on, but it looks like things are a bit tight right now.
Yeah, we'd love to keep you, but you know, we're still a small-market team, and I'm sure one of the bigger teams would be willing to go a lot higher, and I really don't want to insult you with a lowball offer...
No, no, it has nothing to do with that. Honestly, I hadn't even noticed your slugging percentage. What did you say it was?...
.179? [coughs violently] Sorry, swallowed something wrong. I don't pay much attention to that stuff, Jason. You know me, I'm more interested in the leadership and intangibles guys like you bring to a team, the stuff that doesn't show up in the box score...
Oh yeah, that too, your game calling is definitely worth more than anything you could do with the bat. Like Foss says, anything you give us offensively is just gravy. [guffaws] Oh, sorry about that, I have "Two and a Half Men" on in the background, and that Charlie Sheen really cracks me up. Anyway, like I was saying, we definitely value what you bring to the table.
Hey that reminds me, you know who else really likes you, is Bill Stoneman. I was having some beers with Stoney and Kenny Williams at the winter meetings, and...
Oh yeah, we're actually really good friends, the three of us, you know we're the three GMs who played in the majors, and we like to hang out and tell old war stories. Stoney threw a no-no back in '69 you know, John Bateman was behind the plate for that one, he was a lot like you, hell of a game-caller. Anyway, yeah, Stoney was telling me how much he admired you, and I was saying that I'd hate to lose you, but I thought it might be a good fit, you know, you'd be back in SoCal close to your dad, it might really revitalize your game...
Oh, ha ha, right, I forgot about that Lackey thing. But, you know, he's a competitor just like you are, just wants to win. I mean, the same thing happened with you and Kennedy, right, and you guys get along fine now, he gives you all the credit in the world for how well he's throwing this year. Anyway, remind me to give you Bill's number next time I see you. ...
Right, the extension, like I was saying, I'm not sure we have enough in the budget to keep paying you what you're worth, and...
Oh, you would? That's great, but things still might be a little tight. Look, let me talk to Lew again, and see what I can do. I'll get back to you on soon as I can. It still might be a little while though, you know, we have some other stuff in the pipeline...
Oh, hey, I gotta go, Witasick's calling me on my other line. But I'll get back to you soon, promise....
Alright, you too. Stay tough, Jason.
[click]

Linkdump funf, 12 April 2007

andeux — Thu, 12 Apr 2007 17:49:10 -0000

The A's offense gets off to a good start for once, scoring three runs in the first inning off of Mark Buehrle, but then returns to hibernation, and the bullpen will blow it late in the game, as the A's will lose 6-3.

Milton Bradley missed the game, with a slight hamstring strain but Bradley and Crosby should be back in the lineup on friday, while Shannon Stewart might get the night off.

In the battle of overhyped pitching phenoms, Felix Hernandez got the better of Daisuke Matsuzaka, pitching a complete game 1-hitter spoiled only by a J.D. Drew single in the 8th inning. Matsuzaka seems to be the real deal as well, and won the side battle of overhyped Japanese stars as Ichiro went 0-for-5.

And in Shea Stadium, a woman was injured when a 300-pound man fell on her from higher in the stands. Christ, what an *.

RIP Kurt Vonnegut Jr., 1922-2007.

2006 Free Agent Pitchers Revisited

andeux — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 23:29:13 -0000

The signing of Esteban Loaiza last November was one of Billy Beane's most surprising and controversial moves. Most thought that $7 Million per year was way too much for a team with a small budget to be paying for a pitcher with such a mixed track record, while a minority suggested that, with equally mediocre pitchers signing for even more, it could actually prove to be a bargain.

With Loaiza having apparently made his last start of the regular season, I thought it would be a good time to look at how the year's crop of free agent pitchers performed.

Contract 2006 Performance
Yrs $Mil/yr IP ERA
Kevin Millwood 5 12 209 4.52
Tim Hudson 4 12 218 4.86
AJ Burnett 5 11 135 3.98
Jarrod Washburn 4 9.5 187 4.67
Matt Morris 3 9 208 4.98
Jeff Weaver 1 8.5 167 5.79
Kenny Rogers 2 8 202 3.79
Esteban Loaiza 3 7 151 4.84
Paul Byrd 2 7 172 4.87

I included Hudson because 2006 would have been his first year of free agency, though he signed his contract extension with Atlanta a full year early.

Only two of the nine pitchers managed to put up an ERA below 4. Kenny Rogers looks like the only real bargain, with the lowest ERA and one of the cheaper and shorter-term contracts. (Yeah, yeah, monkeyball, we know). Next was A.J. Burnett, but he was close to the top in salary and missed nearly half the season to injury.

Six of the nine pitchers, including Hudson and Loaiza, had an ERA around league average, somewhere between 4.50 and 5.00. Of these, Loaiza and Byrd were by far the cheapest, though, like Burnett, Loaiza missed a significant amount of time to injury.

The biggest disappointment (for the team who signed him and their fans, at least) was Jeff Weaver, who had an ERA of nearly six between Anaheim and St. Louis. The fact that his deal was for only one year prevents it from being a total disaster, but there was still a significant opportunity cost in the innings and dollars wasted on such poor performance.

Surprisingly, even after his horrible start, Loaiza so far has been the third-best "bargain" of the nine pitchers, after Rogers and Byrd. That really says more about how expensive free-agent pitching is than it does about Loaiza's performance. And whether it will remain true depends, of course, on the remaining years of the contract.

Poll

What do you expect from Esteban Loaiza in 2007-8?

The batting practice pitcher we saw in April. That contract still sucks.

4 votes

The Cy Young candidate we saw in August. Beane is a super-genius!

11 votes

200 Innings/year of consistent league-average performance. Good value signing.

170 votes

Two more years of Jekyll and Hyde inconsistency. Pass the antacid.

86 votes

Several more traffic arrests. Pass the radar detector.

6 votes

277 votes | Poll has closed

DLD 26 June 2006: Fine, I'll do it.

andeux — Mon, 26 Jun 2006 21:23:39 -0000

Where is everyone? Did the cool kids all go to hang out at another blog and not tell me?

Anyway, a few links for the off-day:

Macha hearts Bonds. And Ellis starts his rehab assignment in Sacramento tonight.

Over at Catfish Stew, Ken Arneson looks at one of the keys to this year's June resurgence: more quality starts. I'd add that, while getting good performances from the starting pitchers is always important, it's been particularly helpful at a time when the bullpen has been weakened by injuries.

Yesterday's NY Times (registration required) has a generic "A's get hot in June again" article, complete with generic "We probably won't trade Zito, but we might, but we probably won't" quote from Beane.

A minor league manager goes apeshit after getting ejected. You have to watch the video of this. Those who wish the A's manager showed more fire will want to Hire Mikulik Now.

And an article about retired athletes who have moved on to other careers includes Adam Piatt, who is now a financial planner. Maybe Matt Watson has a future after all.

Bill King wins fan balloting

andeux — Tue, 06 Dec 2005 19:10:41 -0000

Thanks in part to AN, Bill King is one of the ten finalists for the Ford Frick Award. The full list is:
Tom Cheek
Ken Coleman
Dizzy Dean
Jacques Doucet
Gene Elston
Bill King
Tony Kubek
Denny Mathews
Graham McNamee
Dave Niehaus

"Throughout the month of November, more than 105,000 fan votes were cast exclusively at the Hall of Fame's Web site - the highest vote total in the three-year history of the online fan voting component to determine Frick ballot selections -with King (25,380), Niehaus (17,091) and Doucet (15,002) selected by fans for the ballot through the online vote."

More details at
http://baseballhalloffame.org/news/2005/051206.htm