
andyroth
Mar 29, 2008 Apr 29, 2008 32 228
I covered the Yankees from 1979-1989, primarily for Sports Phone and NBC Radio.
RSSUser Blog
PHIL HUGHES, TIM LINCECUM
I watched Lincecum last night and he may very well have the best stuff in baseball. The fact that these idiot GM's shied away from him in the draft because of his lack of size and ignored his out of this world stuff and talent is absolutely amazing. If Lincecum was wearing Pinstripes he would be getting equally or more press than Joba. I've never quite seen a curveball like his. It has an incredilbly quick and sharp vertical drop. Lincecum and Hughes are in two different universes. Lincecum has the stuff and ability to be an elite pitcher. If you think you can say that about Hughes then you are wearing Yankee blinders. I would trade Hughes and Kennedy in a heart beat for Lincecum.
Pettite, Wang, Mussina, etc
Pettite A....Wang C, Mussina A, Hawkins sucks and Bruney is what he is, weight loss or no weight loss. Let's see what Hughes has to bring tomorrow. I'll be watching him and Lincecum closely because I haven't really seen Lincecum pitch much although I know he hits 95 pretty consistently. I think back to all the hype about Hughes, before he ever threw a pitch in a spring training game and I expected to see electric stuff from the number one rated pitcher in baseball. I'll never forget Giambi saying I don't care how fast the kid is throwing the ball really comes up on you quickly. Maybe the scouts didn't realize that the year Hughes was ranked number one, the rest of the class was not that good either. The first two times I saw Homer Bailey pitch in the majors he looked awful and was totally unimpressed with his stuff. And I never properly thanked whoever was responsible for the "Dark Cloud" that represents what's hanging over the dunce Cashman's head.
The facts about VELOCITY going back in history.
History shows peak velocity is developed at a very young age and pitchers don't normally gain additional mileage on their fastballs as they get older and their bodies mature. Velocity is a natural talent. No different than world class short distance runners. They don't all of a sudden at 15 show this incredible talent. They stand out a very young age like pitchers do with their velocity. Here are pitchers from different eras and when they got their major velocity.
Wikipedia Dwight Gooden Gooden made his major-league debut on April 7, 1984 with the New York Mets at the age of 19. He quickly developed a reputation with his 98 MPH fastball and sweeping curveball, which was given the superlative nickname of "Lord Charles," in contrast with "Uncle Charlie," a common nickname for a curveball. Wikipedia Josh Beckett Beckett is typically called a power pitcher. While many power pitchers evolve into finesse pitchers later in their careers, it has recently been noted that Beckett has already started to rely more on finesse pitching, but still possesses top-level velocity. His four-seam fastball ranges from 92-98 mph, and Beckett imparts heavy tailing action to move it through the zone. He complements this with a two-seam fastball (91-94 mph) John Sickels Josh Beckett Rookie profile: Josh BeckettBy John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com By John Sickels Beckett is the prototype young pitcher: all of his offerings are above-average, and he throws strikes. His fastball is the headliner: hitting 97 at times and clocking a consistent 94-95. The pitch also has good movement; it is not a straight heater that hitters tee-off on. Beckett was 21 when Sickels wrote this report.
From Yahoo Sports Brien Taylor Lord, that fastball. They swear it tickled 85 when he was 12. In his senior season, Taylor worked 88 innings, struck out 213 hitters and walked only 28. His fastball rested at 95 mph and often hit 98 and 99. Taylor was 19 at the time From minorleaguenews.com Joel Zumaya Joel Zumaya is another of our diamond in the rough players. Plucked from Bonita High School in the very busy, for scouts at least, talent market of San Diego County, his early looks by scouts were pretty ho-hum.
The routine reporting sent him into the 11th round of the draft, where Detroit picked him up at position 320 overall.
Joel throws heat clocked in around 98mph tops. Throwing is almost inaccurate. He hurls the ball with such intensity you think, at times, that either he or the ball might explode on release. This report on Zumaya was when he was 17.
Tim Lincecum - The Future
by Richard Van Zandt, BaseballEvolution.com
August 7, 2006
From the elder Lincecum I found out that The Future has a wide arsenal of pitches that include two fastballs (a two-seamer and a four-seamer that generally settle in at 92-94, but he hit as high as 97 on Saturday and has been previously clocked at 101). Lincecum was 22 when he had this velocity.
Bob Feller had major velocity at 17, when he struck out 15 in his first major league start.
The above pitchers reached their peaks no later than 21 but most during their teen years. That is why I don't feel Phil Hughes will be a major talent. 91 MPH, without a lot of movement and no late tail is not a fastball that will have a great deal of success. And history shows that his fastball will not gain significant velocity as he gets a little older.
JOBA FROM DAYS GONE BY
This is from the U of Nebraska site:
2006 Outlook: Possesses a durable frame and the ability to CONSISTENTLY THROW IN THE MID-90'S. That means in 2005, when Joba was 19, he was already hitting the radar gun at the same velocity he has shown since coming to the majors last year. My point being, pitchers reach their peak velocity at no later than 19 or 20, and in many cases even younger. They don't come up throwing 90 at 21 and slowly progress to 95. The only time I've seen it is after Mariano had surgery early in his career. So that's why I say the Phil Hughes fastball we've seen since day one (91 MPH) is the one you're going to see for years to come. The bottom line is his fastball is not a plus pitch and is way below the level of many young pitchers in the game.
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2006 Outlook: • Possesses a durable frame and the ability to consistently throw in the mid-90s with an exceptional curve ball among an assortment of pitches |
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2006 Outlook: • Possesses a durable frame and the ability to consistently throw in the mid-90s with an exceptional curve ball among an assortment of pitches • Didn’t pitch during the fall, but continued to earn the respect of his teammates, leading during practices and offseason conditioning • Will be counted on for both his abilities and leadership in 2006. |
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Phil Hughes...Does this look familiar?
I was combing through other baseball blogs and came across this assessment of Phil Hughes from a fan writing on Joel Sherman's blog. It seems there is somebody out there in Yankee world that knows the real reality when it comes to Hughes:
DelGrippo:
Actually, I've seen Neiman throw several times in person in the minors- have a buddy who plays in Rays system. His stuff looks better than Hughes, who I've also seen in person (albeit at the Stadium, vs minor league environment, where you are closer to the field). As for Greinke- he had clinical depression, which is generally recognized as having had a great deal to do with his poor perfromance. I also had the chance to see Lincecum pitch in SF last year at PacBell (or whatever they call it these days). Again, his pure stuff is well-beyond what i've seen from Hughes.
Regardless, you're missing my point. You're quoting me stats, talking about minor league experience, and in some cases even the College World Series (I remind you that Brooks Keishnick and Darren Dreifort were CWS superstars- how'd that work out in MLB?). If you look at my post, I'm talking pure stuff. Not performnace. Cueto looks like a young Pedro (and yes, since you like to ask, I've seen him pitch too- Baseball package on dish and laptop, for when I travel, will do that for you), whether he got lit up or not. Hughes sample size is such that I just havent even seen glimpses of being able to dominate, including the half-game no-no against TX.
Pure stuff. Hughes doesn't have the pure stuff to be a major talent. Joba has pure stuff, but the other 2/3 of the so-called Holy Trinity do not.
Hughes/Kennedy or Greinke/Bannister?
If you're Brian Cashman would you trade 2 of the so-called Holy Trinity straight up for the above-mentioned Royals' pair. I'll be curious to see the response because Greinke and Hughes are the power pitchers and neither one has an established track record, while Kennedy and Bannister are more location guys, but Bannister obviously has a little more experience. My personal opinion is if the Yanks had G&B they would be the favorites to win AL and probably the World Series.
WANG, PETTITTE, HUGHES, IPK
I didn't see Wang's outing in Boston but was told his changeup and slider were effective but a number of fly ball outs may have left another park. But it was impressive to put up the kind of numbers he did in a big road start. But to come back and then throw the kind of stinker he did last night at home where he is usaully so high level basically negated last week's game for me. God forbid in a playoff game his sinker isn't working like last night.
The only thing I'll have to say about Hughes is the same old thing. You won't be a big time talent if you're fastball is 91, flat, and no late explosiveness.
IPK. I wasn't that impressed with the outing against KC. He threw one or two good fastballs, otherwise it was the same old straight as a narrow 87 MPH. And Upton's base running blunder changed the whole complexion of the inning and immediately took a lot of pressure off Hughes.
Unfortunately I did not see Pettitte vs the Royals although I know he thought he had his best curveball of the season by far. Not the best of lineups for a true test for Andy. Let's see what happens in the next two starts.
I saw Hawkins last night. He pitched well but he was throwing slop. And Ohlendorf is erratic, while I'm not convinced the slimmed down Bruney is an improvement over the bigger version.
"Brace yourself for Andy Roth."
Girardi, Torre, Bochy...The blind leading the blind. I guess Joe G thought if it was a good enough move for the other two morons I may as well do it too, even though Ian Kennedy was very clear after the game that he wasn't comfortable at all coming out of the pen. Even David Cone knew what effect it would have on a fellow starting pitcher. Girardi Grade: F-
And the ball Butler hit off Farnsworthless just landed at JFK. Is anybody concerned yet what happens to the pen when Joba goes to the rotation, or will Hapless Hank have to eat his words after saying Joba would eventually be in the roatation after the season opener?
Just remember you don't win championships with "Clowns In Pinstripes" running the show.
HUGHES, OHLENDORF
Hughes Rating: D Curveball was all over the place although I know he'll have better days with it. What I didn't like as usual, was the fastball at 91 with very little movement. When is someone going to try to teach him a 2-seamer? Didn't make very much use of the changeup either. As for Ohlendorf he's a long way from being a competent replacement for Joba. He he has some pretty good stuff but it's a huge question mark that he puts it all together this year based on his past history.
The Yanks will have a tough game today, especially with Jeter, Posada, and Giambi out of the the lineup. I saw Greinke's first start against the Tigers and he had very good stuff. Let's see what happens with IPK and his flat, mid 80's fastball. The Royal's lineup is not a potent one to say the least, but Grudzielanek, Teahen, Guillen, Butler, Gordon, and Gload aren't easy outs.
MUSSINA
Performance: A+ Excellent curve ball, varying speeds, great changeup and generally excellent location. I'm shocked. Interesting to see how he'll do in his next start in Fenway. Only thing I didn't like was his velocity....Hawkins made one exceptional pitch but didn't really show me anything again, especially in a blowout game with no pressure....Bannister and Hughes should be a good matchup today. With Chamberlain and Rivera rested Hughes needs to give them 7 solid innings against a fairly weak lineup and then hand the game over to the big 2.
IPK, HAWKINS, FARNSWORTH
IPK GRADE: F His curveball was awful, although I know he has a much better one than he threw tonight but the big problem as far as being a high quality pitcher is his fastball. At 86 MPH and little movement you're going to pay too often for bad location.
Hawkins is just plain awful. Where is this damn sinker that Girardi and Cashman talked about after the signing. It doesn't exist. All he does is throw straight, flat fastballs. No surprise the best the worst GM in baseball could do was to waste 3.75 million on a pitcher who has been washed up for three years. For the person here who said he is a serviceable pitcher who will soak up innings must've really meant it was going to be raining runs when Hawkins takes the mound. And it was Girardi who recommended Hawkins to the Yankees. And it was Girardi who said he expected good things from Mussina and Farsnworth this year. He was stupid to go out on a limb like that considering the pitchers he was dealing with. He could've just as easily said about Mussina that he wasn't fully healthy last year and I expect more life on his ball this season. As for Farnsworth, he could've said I really liked his stuff when I had him in Chicago and I just think he needs to build his confidence back up.
And last but not least Mr. Farnsworth. When are some people here going to realize he has nothing between the ears and will never be good. Anybody want to stick their neck out on him here with Ronster?
It's the same old bottom line. As long as Cash is the GM, the championship droughts will continue. It's really difficult to win a title when you have the worst GM in the game.
Phil Hughes
B+ tonight. Very good curveball and good placement of the fastball. Velocity was all right but not exceptional. Not a knock on Hughes but McGowan at this point has better stuff but is five years older. I'll be interested to see how the staff pitches as they face better lineups. Tampa Bay is an upgrade over Toronto but then they face the Royals. Let's see what Kennedy has to offer tomorrow.
Don't faint because I wrote something very positive.
Mussina, Hawkins...one word...UGLY
The Moose looked like the washed up pitcher he was last year. A mid 80's fastball isn't going to get it done on this level. And tonight he faced a bad lineup. It'll be ugly again like last season when he gave up 6+ runs in nine of his starts. Gee, I wonder where they're going to get a fifth starter from. I forgot, Cash has his $46M dollar bust waiting in the wings in Scranton. As for Mr. Hawkins where was this sinker he supposedly developed last season. I didn't see one damn pitch that resembled one. All I saw was a bunch of straight, flat fastballs. Oh well, just add his name to the long list of failed relievers the pathetic GM has brought in.
In the case of Moose I gave you fair warning of his demise:
by andyroth on May 1, 2007 12:51 AM EDT
Mike Mussina's return this week will improve the Yankee's rotation but don't look for big results from the The Moose this season. Age seems to be catching up with Mussina as he continues to break down each year. Also, his fastball now tops out in the high 80's making it awfully tough to have a high level of success..
Santana or Wang?
I'm really having a difficult time picking which pitcher I'd rather have, especially come playoff time. A pitcher who has a helluva shot at the Hall of Fame or a one-pitch pitcher with a lifetime road ERA of of 4.62. and a .292 batting average against.
For Ronster22
Maybe nobody out here wants to inform him that left handed pitchers are known to be more of a late bloomer than righties because of the general hatred of me out here, but let's see if anybody will have the nerve to agree with me and state it here.
Digest these late-blooming lefties Ronster and then try to come back with an intelligent response. So sorry to give you such a tough assignment
Sandy Koufax 31
Randy Johnson 30
Tommy John 34
Ron Guidry 27
Mike Cuellar 32
Al Leiter 31
Dave McNally 26
Lefty Grove 26
Warren Spahn 26
Erik Bedard 27
Clowns in Pinstripes...Revised Edition
That's my new name for the trio of Brian Cashman, and Hank and Hal Steinbrenner. Just consider the comments that came out of the ignorant three during the Santana negotiations.
- Cashman and Hank say they will not trade Chamberlain, Hughes, or Kennedy for Santana.
- The Yankees change their minds and offer Hughes in a package and then take back the offer.
- Hal says the Yankees can have Pettitte or Santana but not both. So he is basically saying he doesn't want to spend an extra $16M for just one season for the chance to get Santana. This from the wealthiest franchise in sports, worth over one billion dollars.
- Last week Hank said the Twins came back with one final proposal before making the deal with the Twins and Minnesota did not ask for any of the Holy Trinity, yet he turns down the deal.
- After the Pettitte-HGH story breaks, Hank all of a sudden is questioning the decision not to trade for Santana, when the reality is he was only going to have Pettitte for one more season.
By the way if the Yankees dealt Wang in a package for Santana it woul've meant adding $15M to the payroll for the 2008 season to get arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Santana will get paid $19M this season and Wang will get $4M.
Unfortunately for Yankee fans as long as there are "Clowns in Pinstripes" running the show, the championship drought will not be broken.
Addendum: Don't be shocked when they come up short this season that they make a big pitch for Sabathia if Cleveland doesn't re-sign him.
Joe Nathan
This is the player the Yankees should set their sights on if they want to really compete for a World Championship this year and beyond. Not only would Nathan provide a great bridge to Mariano but he could close occasionally and save wear and tear on Rivera's arm in the latter stages of his career. Offer Ian Kennedy and whatever else the Twins are seeking and make the deal. Nathan is only 33 and has very little mileage on his arm having basically not pitched in 2001 and 2002. He has only logged 549 innings during his career. It is time for Cashman to think outside of the box and aggressivley pursue this deal. With Nathan in the pen you wouldn't even have to worry about having a quality lefty since his numbers against them are outstanding. The last three seasons lefties hit .191 against Nathan with a .285 slugging percentage. This deal is a no-brainer. Let's see if the Yankee organization can figure it out.
Cashman-itis
It actuallys seems like most of the GM's in baseball suffer from this ailment. Silva 4 years, $48M, Andruw Jones, 2 years, $36M, and the list goes on and on over the years. Either they're all brain dead or as someone once told me years ago that they knew an agent that said the GM's are stealing money from the owners on these contracts. In this country with corporate America so corrupt it is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Just remember in the NBA, Kevin McHale did a deal under the table with Joe Smith that cost the Wolves FIVE first round picks.
If they REALLY want to serioulsy contend
for a World Championship this season and beyond then offer Hughes, Kennedy, and Cabrera for Bedard, Guthrie and Tejada (picking up Tejada's entire contract). You could have a starting rotation of Bedard, Pettitte, Wang, Guthrie and Mussina and put Joba back in the pen for now. At least after Pettitte is gone next year you can always put Joba back in the rotation and try to upgrade the bullpen in the off season. You also have Alan Horne waiting in the wings if Mussina totally falls apart, which is certainly possible...If you check Bedard's numbers he was clearly better than Beckett, Sanatana, and Sabathia and keep in mind Bedard played for a bad offensive team with one of the worst bullpen's in baseball while Beckett and Sabathia pitched for playoff teams and at least Santana had Nathan in the pen. Also, Bedard has pitched only 554 innings, basically three complete seasons, while Santana has logged over 1200 innings.
Use Tejada as your DH and let Giambi play first. You can also use Tejada to spell Jeter, Arod and Cano.
My prediction is
that over the next 5 years Erik Bedard will put up superior numbers to Santana. I think on pure stuff, Bedard is near Santan's level and has not logged nearly as much innings at this point in his career than Santana. Santana has had a better lineup in Minnesota and much better bullpen backing him than Bedard.
I'd take Bedard over Santana
Bedard has improved every season for the past three years and could've come away with the Cy Young if not for being shut down with the rib cage injury. Bedard doesn't become a free agent unitl after the 2009 season and the Yankees would save a tremendous amount in salary with Bedard over Santana. I also took a very close look at Santana's numbers and while they are extremely good and you can certainly argue he's the number one pitcher in baseball, he is certainly not on the level of a Pedro at his peak or even Clemens during his two Cy Young years with the Blue Jays. I don't think he's worth $25M per season.
TROY PERCIVAL
Here's my take on the Ray's signing of Troy Percival for 2 years, $8M, plus incentives. If I were the Yankees I would've taken the risk and matched the offer. This team is DESPERATE for high quality relievers. This bullpen outside of Matiano is very simply BAD, and in no way shape or form a championship caliber bullpen. If the Santana trade comes off, the need for a deep, quality bullpen probably becomes greater. You'll have Chamberlain on pitch counts, Mussina, who's washed up and will not give you length, and god knows who the number five guy will be, but I can assure you he's not going to be a quality, innings eater guy.
Sure Percival is a gamble at that price, but based on their huge need in this area it is one you HAVE to take.
Once again, I'll say in Percival, you have someone who at least was a major talent for many years.
You certainly couldn't say that about these Cashman signings:
Sterling Hitchcok: Major arm problems in the past. A 48-50 lifetime mark with a horrible road record and he gets 2 years, $12M.
Steve Karasay: Once again, major arm problems in the past and nowhere in Percival's class and gets 4 years, $20M.
Chris Hammond: 37 years old, coming off one career year and gets 3 years, $9M.
Jaret Wright: A LONG history of arm problems. Prior to his 15-8 season with the Braves, the most innings he pitched over the previous five seasons was 56 and during that span he was 11-19 with a 7+ ERA and he gets 3 years, $21M (third year at Yankee opton).
Carl Pavano: Prior to the 18-8 season with the Marlins he was 45-60 lifetme. He gets 4 years, $40M and we know what a disaster this was.
Kei Igawa: $46M spent on a pitcher Cashman projects as a number five and has never thrown a pitch in the majors...And I guess I can pile on and throw in the name Hideki Irabu.
There's actaully a journalist who knows the real Yankee deal
From the Village Voice on November 27th. Just what I've been saying all along especially when it comes to this pathetic bullpen. By the way, I don't follow the National League that closesly but the pathetic Yankee management blew another one in not taking a flyer on Troy Percival, who, once again like Kerry Wood at least was a big time talent in his career. I was shocked to see Percival's numbers from last season: 40 IP, 26 Hits, 10 BB, 36 K, 171 BAA, and a 1.80 ERA. The Yanks would prefer garbage like Veras and Vizcaino over this? The stupidity of this organization is beyond belief. Now to the Village Voice article:
After the euphoria over the return of A-Rod, Posada, Rivera, and (probably) Andy Pettitte has passed, where does that leave the Yankees? And the answer is: Just about exactly where they were at the end of last month's playoff flop. Essentially, the Yankees' brain trust--and we use the word in the broadest possible sense--has paid an extraordinary amount of money simply to run in place.
The assumption on the part of Yankee fans is that the new young starters--Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and, presumably, Joba Chamberlain--will carry the team next year. This is questionable. Promising as this trio is, they have won just nine major league games. Hughes may not develop as fast as the Yankees need him to, and who knows for certain if Kennedy really is a top-flight starter? For that matter, who knows if Joba can be a starter, or, if he can, how long it will take him to develop into the kind of starter who can average six or seven innings per start (which is the only kind of starter the Yankees really need)? (As we go to press, the rumor is that Hughes may be involved in a deal for Twins pitcher Johan Santana. But if the price is Hughes and Melky Cabrera, it's a tossup as to whether the Yankees really come out ahead.)
And what is the bullpen going to be like without Joba? The Yankees are now left with the problem of how to find set-up guys for an aging closer who appeared to be slipping toward the end of last season--and hoping an aging catcher can hold up for all of them.
So far, the Yankees and the Mets are reacting to their disappointing seasons in similar ways. The Yankees are pouring tons of money into their problems, but so far have come up with little more than cosmetic surgery by hiring Joe Girardi as manager.
The Clueless Yankees, Media, and Fans
If Pettite decides to retires, the Yankees are left with a rotation of Wang (19-9,3.70), Chamberlain (2-0,0.38), Hughes(5-3,4.46), Kennedy (1-0,1.89), and Mussina(11-10,5.15). The Yankees have deluded themselves, the fans and media to believe a staff comprised of three rookie pitchers with a combined 107 innings of major league experience will be able to contend for a World Championship. There seems to be no concerns what a workload of 180-200 innings will have on the three when they've never pitched near those totals in their career. Never has a team won a World Series with three rookie pitchers, and let's not forget all 22 or younger, so why should anybody believe this historical trend will all of a sudden change this season. It's amazing to me how these three are believed to be some holy trinity considering some of the recent history alone in baseball. Anybody remember the names Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Francisco Liriano,Rich Harden, Kris Benson, Zach Greinke-all considered major prospects-and what happened to their careers. How about Isringhausen, Pulsipher, and Wilson. Even the talented three of Hudson, Mulder and Zito couldn't get the A's out of the first round. Meanwhile, Zito, after his first two major seasons has slowly declined since and Mulder blew out his arm. Jeremy Bonderman, whose stuff was certainly as good as Hughes at a similar age had a horrible second half last season and had to be shut down. And where is the championship calibre bullpen to back up this rotation where the three young pitchers likely will be limited to pitch counts? If you think the Yankees can win a World Series with Mariano, backed up by Farnsworth, Vizcaino (I'm assuming he re-signs), Veras, and Oehlendorf, you have to have your brain examined. And let's not forget that at this point they don't even have a quality lefty coming out of the pen.
As far as the bullpen, I would give Kerry Wood an intense workout and if I liked what I saw I would give him a two year deal with a respectable base salary plus incentives and use him as the setup man to Mariano. I would sign Ron Mahay AND Jeremy Affeldt. I always thinks it's better to have two situational lefties and if one doesn't work out at least you have one competent one.
They wasted over $140M on the likes of Hitchcock, Karsay,Hammond, Wright, Pavano and Igawa and they won't take a chance on a player like Kerry Wood, who at least at one time in his career was a major talent.
And based on the many great prospects previously mentioned here that have failed in the past for one reason or another I would trade Chamberlain in a deal for Santana.
One more note on Cashman and the clueless Yankee organization. They didn't learn their lesson with Bernie Williams and negotiate a new deal prior to becoming a free agent and it cost them $40M. I guarantee you if they re-signed Rivera and Posada before the season they would've saved themselves at least 40-50 million dollars.
I've received a lot of criticism here but you'll all be eating your words when the championship drought lasts for years to come.
Yankee Rotation-UPDATED INFORMATION
If Pettite decides to retires, the Yankees are left with a rotation of Wang (19-9,3.70), Chamberlain (2-0,0.38), Hughes(5-3,4.46), Kennedy (1-0,1.89), and Mussina(11-10,5.15). The Yankees have deluded themselves, the fans and media to believe a staff comprised of three rookie pitchers with a combined 107 innings of major league experience will be able to contend for a World Championship. There seems to be no concerns what a workload of 180-200 innings will have on the three when they've never pitched near those totals in their career. Never has a team won a World Series with three rookie pitchers, and let's not forget all 22 or younger, so why should anybody believe this historical trend will all of a sudden change this season. It's amazing to me how these three are believed to be some holy trinity considering some of the recent history alone in baseball. Anybody remember the names Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Francisco Liriano,Rich Harden, Kris Benson, Zach Greinke-all considered major prospects-and what happened to their careers. How about Isringhausen, Pulsipher, and Wilson. Even the talented three of Hudson, Mulder and Zito couldn't get the A's out of the first round. Meanwhile, Zito, after his first two major seasons has slowly declined since and Mulder blew out his arm. Jeremy Bonderman, whose stuff was certainly as good as Hughes at a similar age had a horrible second half last season and had to be shut down. And where is the championship calibre bullpen to back up this rotation where the three young pitchers likely will be limited to pitch counts? If you think the Yankees can win a World Series with Mariano, backed up by Farnsworth, Vizcaino (I'm assuming he re-signs), Veras, and Oehlendorf, you have to have your brain examined. And let's not forget that at this point they don't even have a quality lefty coming out of the pen.
The bottom line is that this organization is pathetic and as long as Brian Cashman and Hank Steinbrenner are calling the shots, the championship drought will go on for years. For Hank Steinbrenner to come out and publicly say he wouldn't trade Ian Kennedy and his 19 innings of major league experience for Miguel Cabrera is stupidity of the highest level.
Unfortunately, Brian Cashman has no vision and will screw up as usual this off season. I have no doubts in my mind that within two years Damon, Matsui and Posada will be on the downside of their careers. Also keep in mind that Abreu only has one more year on his contract.
The obvious move to me based on this is to sign Tori Hunter, who not only gives you a right handed presence and a Gold Glove but it frees up a trade for the overated Melky Cabrera and one of the young pitchers to go after Santana. Nobody in the organization and practically no one among the fans and media would trade Chamberlain for Santana but I would do it in a second.
As far as the bullpen, I would give Kerry Wood an intense workout and if I liked what I saw I would give him a two year deal with a respectable base salary plus incentives and use him as the setup man to Mariano. They wasted over $140M on the likes of Hitchcock, Karsay,Hammond, Wright, Pavano and Igawa and they won't take a chance on a player like Kerry Wood, who at least at one time in his career was a major talent. One more note on Cashman and the clueless Yankee organization. They didn't learn their lesson with Bernie Williams and negotiate a new deal prior to becoming a free agent and it cost them $40M. I guarantee you if they re-signed Rivera and Posada before the season they would've saved themselves at least 40-50 million dollars. I've received a lot of criticism here but you'll all be eating your words when the championship drought lasts for years to come. I'll finish with two names for the bullpen: Ron Mahay and Jeremy Affeldt.
Yankee Poll
Do you think the Yankees can get to the World Series with a starting rotation of Wang (19-9, 3.70), Chamberlain (2-0, 0.38), Hughes (5-3,4.46),
Kennedy (1-0, 1.89) and Mike Mussina (11-10, 5.15)? With the recent resigning of Arod, Rivera, and Posada do you think this staff with the team in place can get to the World Series?
I told you so...plus other comments
In my diary analyzing the Yanks-Indians series here were two of my main points. First, Wang should have never started game one with a 3 year history of being decidedly worse on the road,with this being his worst season. I actually made a mistake. His road ERA was 4.95 which is basicall the ERA of a below average pitcher. He had a great road record simply becuase the Yanks gave him so much run support. If you're the manager you can't ignore a career trend like that. Very simply Wang is not high level pithcer on the road and the clear and obvious choice was Pettite. Wang should have gone in Game 3 at the Stadium where you know he excels, plus he would've been matched up against Byrd rather than Sabathia.
The other area I focused on was the bullpen. I said one of the biggest secrets in baseball that 2-5 the Indians had the best pen in the game. And sure enough they shut the Yankees down.
As for Joe Torre's fate, I hope he stays only becuase the rest of the managerial community is as bad as him when it comes to game strategy. At least Torre didn't let the team get down after the poor start and he is liked in the clubhouse. But make no mistake about it he is a very bad game strategist.
Getting back to the playoff series for a moment, I am dumbfuounded how Torre, Cashman and the Yankee braintrust can sit in a room discussing the playoff roster and select Veras with his limitied experience and a 5+ ERA and Ohelendorf with his handul of innings in the majors and keep the only lefty in the pen in Villone off the roster when Cleveland has Hafner and Sizemore, two of their best three hitters from the left side plus Kenny Lofton and the fact that Victor Martinez's numbers this year were worse against lefties. This season lefties hit .239 vs Villone and last year when he was very ineffective, basically 90% of it was compiled against righties. Lefties hit .179 vs Villone. Based on those numbers it's incomprehensible how he was left off the roster. This was complete ineptitude by the Yankee braintrust and showed a complete lack of intelligence.
Finally, I called for Brian Cashman's firing early in the season, saying it was way overdue and they would never win another title with him running the show and I stick firmly by that belief. Look at his resume when it comes to the bullpen. Basically every free agent signed was a complete bust, highlighed by big money to Karsay and Farnsworth who had no track record as quality relivers. Karsay's only track record was a history of arm problems which eventually ended his career. Not once during Cashman's 10-year reign did he trade for a reliever that performed at a high quality. The one series of moves that epitomizes his ineptitude at evaluating pitching talent was trading for Gabe White and Felex Heredia who weren't very good with the Reds. They both were horrible for the Yankees after the trade yet Cashman re-signed both to new 2 year contracts. And not ONE quality reliever was ever developed in the farm system.(Sorry Joba doesn't count because he was specifically drafted as a starter.)
As for starting pitching, I'll just name Hitchcock, Wright, Pavano and Igawa and leave it at that as far as Cashman's ability in that area.
I will give him credit for Joba, but as I've written before here, Hughes has not shown me the stuff to be a major talent and Kennedy looks like a number four at best.
The reality is when it comes to pitching during his ten year reign, Cashman has made many blunders and has been wrong probably 90% of the time. If you game him a team with $125 million payroll, I doubt it would ever see the playoffs.
There's too much focus on Torre and not Cashman. He is the reason they have gone seven straight years without a title now. The championship teams under his reign was basically built by Bob Watson and Gene Michael. It is cleary time for Cashman to go.
The Real Deal on the series
It's total lunacy that the Yanks are heavy favorites to win this series. Pitching wins playoff games and the edge goes to the Indians. Plus, as usaul, Joe doesn't know how to dissect the numbers and make up the correct rotation. On paper Wang vs Sabathia looks close but when you go deep inside the numbers that is not the case. First of all Sabathia dominated lefties this season with a .204 BAA. Wang meanwhile for the third straight season was clearly worse on the road with this being his worst season with a road ERA of 4.91. He had numerous road outings where he was outright bad. If Torre had common sense, Wang would go in game 3 at the Stadium.
Game 2 has Pettitte vs Carmona. I've watched Carmona since early in the season and on many occasions and he has nasty stuff. He is a better version of Wang with more explosive stuff and a sinker that he consistently throws at 95 which is also very effective against lefties.
In games three and four you can't say the Yankees have any decided edge with Clemens on a long layoff and Mussina who proved nothing to me with three solid outings against weak offensive teams and then getting whacked around by Balitmore in his final start. I believe Hughes should be starting this game. I haven't been a big fan of his but his stuff is clearly better than Mussina.
Now to the biggest secret of this series. Joe Borowski may be a weak spot for the Indians but 2-5 this club has the best bullpen in baseball. Joba has gotten all this national attention and adulation but Rafael Betancourt has been the best setup man in baseball with incredible numbers. 79 innings, 57 hits, 80 k's and 9 walks. Most people probable couldn't even name the rest of the Cleveland bullpen. Rafael Perez has tremendous numbers and has been nearly unhittable against lefties and then there is Rafael Lewis and Aaron Fultz who provides another quality lefty out of the pen.
The pick is the Indians in five.
MLB Managers EXposed
Just wanted to gauge the interest in a daily report card of major league managers screw ups and blunders. It is my contention that basically these are a group of uneducated men with little common sense who for the most part are clueless. i.e. Charlie Manuel, Grady Little, Clint Hurdle, Terry Francona and yes, even the great Joe Torre.
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