SB Nation User Blog: andyroth

PHIL HUGHES, TIM LINCECUM

andyroth — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 18:59:58 -0000

I watched Lincecum last night and he may very well have the best stuff in baseball. The fact that these idiot GM's shied away from him in the draft because of his lack of size and ignored his out of this world stuff and talent is absolutely amazing. If Lincecum was wearing Pinstripes he would be getting equally or more press than Joba. I've never quite seen a curveball like his. It has an incredilbly quick and sharp vertical drop. Lincecum and Hughes are in two different universes. Lincecum has the stuff and ability to be an elite pitcher. If you think you can say that about Hughes then you are wearing Yankee blinders. I would trade Hughes and Kennedy in a heart beat for Lincecum.

Pettite, Wang, Mussina, etc

andyroth — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 04:37:44 -0000

Pettite A....Wang C, Mussina A, Hawkins sucks and Bruney is what he is, weight loss or no weight loss. Let's see what Hughes has to bring tomorrow. I'll be watching him and Lincecum closely because I haven't really seen Lincecum pitch much although I know he hits 95 pretty consistently. I think back to all the hype about Hughes, before he ever threw a pitch in a spring training game and I expected to see electric stuff from the number one rated pitcher in baseball. I'll never forget Giambi saying I don't care how fast the kid is throwing the ball really comes up on you quickly. Maybe the scouts didn't realize that the year Hughes was ranked number one, the rest of the class was not that good either. The first two times I saw Homer Bailey pitch in the majors he looked awful and was totally unimpressed with his stuff. And I never properly thanked whoever was responsible for the "Dark Cloud" that represents what's hanging over the dunce Cashman's head.

The facts about VELOCITY going back in history.

andyroth — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 09:28:18 -0000

History shows peak velocity is developed at a very young age and pitchers don't normally gain additional mileage on their fastballs as they get older and their bodies mature. Velocity is a natural talent. No different than world class short distance runners. They don't all of a sudden at 15 show this incredible talent. They stand out a very young age like pitchers do with their velocity. Here are pitchers from different eras and when they got their major velocity.

Wikipedia Dwight Gooden Gooden made his major-league debut on April 7, 1984 with the New York Mets at the age of 19. He quickly developed a reputation with his 98 MPH fastball and sweeping curveball, which was given the superlative nickname of "Lord Charles," in contrast with "Uncle Charlie," a common nickname for a curveball. Wikipedia Josh Beckett Beckett is typically called a power pitcher. While many power pitchers evolve into finesse pitchers later in their careers, it has recently been noted that Beckett has already started to rely more on finesse pitching, but still possesses top-level velocity. His four-seam fastball ranges from 92-98 mph, and Beckett imparts heavy tailing action to move it through the zone. He complements this with a two-seam fastball (91-94 mph) John Sickels Josh Beckett Rookie profile: Josh Beckett
By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com By John Sickels Beckett is the prototype young pitcher: all of his offerings are above-average, and he throws strikes. His fastball is the headliner: hitting 97 at times and clocking a consistent 94-95. The pitch also has good movement; it is not a straight heater that hitters tee-off on. Beckett was 21 when Sickels wrote this report.
From Yahoo Sports Brien Taylor Lord, that fastball. They swear it tickled 85 when he was 12. In his senior season, Taylor worked 88 innings, struck out 213 hitters and walked only 28. His fastball rested at 95 mph and often hit 98 and 99. Taylor was 19 at the time From minorleaguenews.com Joel Zumaya Joel Zumaya is another of our diamond in the rough players. Plucked from Bonita High School in the very busy, for scouts at least, talent market of San Diego County, his early looks by scouts were pretty ho-hum.

The routine reporting sent him into the 11th round of the draft, where Detroit picked him up at position 320 overall.

Joel throws heat clocked in around 98mph tops. Throwing is almost inaccurate. He hurls the ball with such intensity you think, at times, that either he or the ball might explode on release. This report on Zumaya was when he was 17.

Tim Lincecum - The Future
by Richard Van Zandt, BaseballEvolution.com
August 7, 2006

From the elder Lincecum I found out that The Future has a wide arsenal of pitches that include two fastballs (a two-seamer and a four-seamer that generally settle in at 92-94, but he hit as high as 97 on Saturday and has been previously clocked at 101). Lincecum was 22 when he had this velocity.

Bob Feller had major velocity at 17, when he struck out 15 in his first major league start.

The above pitchers reached their peaks no later than 21 but most during their teen years. That is why I don't feel Phil Hughes will be a major talent. 91 MPH, without a lot of movement and no late tail is not a fastball that will have a great deal of success. And history shows that his fastball will not gain significant velocity as he gets a little older.

JOBA FROM DAYS GONE BY

andyroth — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 07:30:55 -0000

This is from the U of Nebraska site:

2006 Outlook: Possesses a durable frame and the ability to CONSISTENTLY THROW IN THE MID-90'S. That means in 2005, when Joba was 19, he was already hitting the radar gun at the same velocity he has shown since coming to the majors last year. My point being, pitchers reach their peak velocity at no later than 19 or 20, and in many cases even younger. They don't come up throwing 90 at 21 and slowly progress to 95. The only time I've seen it is after Mariano had surgery early in his career. So that's why I say the Phil Hughes fastball we've seen since day one (91 MPH) is the one you're going to see for years to come. The bottom line is his fastball is not a plus pitch and is way below the level of many young pitchers in the game.

2006 Outlook: • Possesses a durable frame and the ability to consistently throw in the mid-90s with an exceptional curve ball among an assortment of pitches

2006 Outlook: • Possesses a durable frame and the ability to consistently throw in the mid-90s with an exceptional curve ball among an assortment of pitches • Didn’t pitch during the fall, but continued to earn the respect of his teammates, leading during practices and offseason conditioning • Will be counted on for both his abilities and leadership in 2006.

Phil Hughes...Does this look familiar?

andyroth — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 07:07:50 -0000

I was combing through other baseball blogs and came across this assessment of Phil Hughes from a fan writing on Joel Sherman's blog. It seems there is somebody out there in Yankee world that knows the real reality when it comes to Hughes:

DelGrippo:
Actually, I've seen Neiman throw several times in person in the minors- have a buddy who plays in Rays system. His stuff looks better than Hughes, who I've also seen in person (albeit at the Stadium, vs minor league environment, where you are closer to the field). As for Greinke- he had clinical depression, which is generally recognized as having had a great deal to do with his poor perfromance. I also had the chance to see Lincecum pitch in SF last year at PacBell (or whatever they call it these days). Again, his pure stuff is well-beyond what i've seen from Hughes.

Regardless, you're missing my point. You're quoting me stats, talking about minor league experience, and in some cases even the College World Series (I remind you that Brooks Keishnick and Darren Dreifort were CWS superstars- how'd that work out in MLB?). If you look at my post, I'm talking pure stuff. Not performnace. Cueto looks like a young Pedro (and yes, since you like to ask, I've seen him pitch too- Baseball package on dish and laptop, for when I travel, will do that for you), whether he got lit up or not. Hughes sample size is such that I just havent even seen glimpses of being able to dominate, including the half-game no-no against TX.

Pure stuff. Hughes doesn't have the pure stuff to be a major talent. Joba has pure stuff, but the other 2/3 of the so-called Holy Trinity do not.

Hughes/Kennedy or Greinke/Bannister?

andyroth — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 19:07:57 -0000

If you're Brian Cashman would you trade 2 of the so-called Holy Trinity straight up for the above-mentioned Royals' pair. I'll be curious to see the response because Greinke and Hughes are the power pitchers and neither one has an established track record, while Kennedy and Bannister are more location guys, but Bannister obviously has a little more experience. My personal opinion is if the Yanks had G&B they would be the favorites to win AL and probably the World Series.

WANG, PETTITTE, HUGHES, IPK

andyroth — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 17:24:36 -0000

I didn't see Wang's outing in Boston but was told his changeup and slider were effective but a number of fly ball outs may have left another park. But it was impressive to put up the kind of numbers he did in a big road start. But to come back and then throw the kind of stinker he did last night at home where he is usaully so high level basically negated last week's game for me. God forbid in a playoff game his sinker isn't working like last night.

The only thing I'll have to say about Hughes is the same old thing. You won't be a big time talent if you're fastball is 91, flat, and no late explosiveness.

IPK. I wasn't that impressed with the outing against KC. He threw one or two good fastballs, otherwise it was the same old straight as a narrow 87 MPH. And Upton's base running blunder changed the whole complexion of the inning and immediately took a lot of pressure off Hughes.

Unfortunately I did not see Pettitte vs the Royals although I know he thought he had his best curveball of the season by far. Not the best of lineups for a true test for Andy. Let's see what happens in the next two starts.

I saw Hawkins last night. He pitched well but he was throwing slop. And Ohlendorf is erratic, while I'm not convinced the slimmed down Bruney is an improvement over the bigger version.

"Brace yourself for Andy Roth."

andyroth — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 05:58:09 -0000

Girardi, Torre, Bochy...The blind leading the blind. I guess Joe G thought if it was a good enough move for the other two morons I may as well do it too, even though Ian Kennedy was very clear after the game that he wasn't comfortable at all coming out of the pen. Even David Cone knew what effect it would have on a fellow starting pitcher. Girardi Grade: F-

And the ball Butler hit off Farnsworthless just landed at JFK. Is anybody concerned yet what happens to the pen when Joba goes to the rotation, or will Hapless Hank have to eat his words after saying Joba would eventually be in the roatation after the season opener?

Just remember you don't win championships with "Clowns In Pinstripes" running the show.

HUGHES, OHLENDORF

andyroth — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 06:44:49 -0000

Hughes Rating: D Curveball was all over the place although I know he'll have better days with it. What I didn't like as usual, was the fastball at 91 with very little movement. When is someone going to try to teach him a 2-seamer? Didn't make very much use of the changeup either. As for Ohlendorf he's a long way from being a competent replacement for Joba. He he has some pretty good stuff but it's a huge question mark that he puts it all together this year based on his past history.

The Yanks will have a tough game today, especially with Jeter, Posada, and Giambi out of the the lineup. I saw Greinke's first start against the Tigers and he had very good stuff. Let's see what happens with IPK and his flat, mid 80's fastball. The Royal's lineup is not a potent one to say the least, but Grudzielanek, Teahen, Guillen, Butler, Gordon, and Gload aren't easy outs.

MUSSINA

andyroth — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 08:24:08 -0000

Performance: A+ Excellent curve ball, varying speeds, great changeup and generally excellent location. I'm shocked. Interesting to see how he'll do in his next start in Fenway. Only thing I didn't like was his velocity....Hawkins made one exceptional pitch but didn't really show me anything again, especially in a blowout game with no pressure....Bannister and Hughes should be a good matchup today. With Chamberlain and Rivera rested Hughes needs to give them 7 solid innings against a fairly weak lineup and then hand the game over to the big 2.