SB Nation User Blog: arjoseph

Updates from ESPN's Draft-Buzz Feed (Updated ~3:30 PM)

arjoseph — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:32:14 -0000

For the past few days all ESPN reporters have been hopping on the Interwebs to break rumors and stories. Since I've been obsessively checking it, I thought I could bring it over here and paraphrase for non-Insider folks (and maybe throw in some quotes).

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[A few updates around 4:00 ET]: Cybit has pasted some below in the comments, but here's another: An Amare deal tonight is very unlikely (sorry Matt). The update is in conjunction with a Warriors Amare rumor, but I think it applies to any team. Since a trade for Amare would involve not only an intense examination of his injured eye and a status exam on his microfracture knee, but also some form of assurance that he would resign in 2010, it's highly unlikely all of that gets done by the draft. The item also pours water on the Houston Amare rumor, saying sources familiar with both teams are skeptical.

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[Update @ 3:03 ET]: Among other things, Chad Ford reports that Houston has offered Battier and Brooks to Memphis for #2. Chad states that Memphis could unload Marko Jaric's contract in the deal. The question remains: who does Houston want? My bet would be Rubio.

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[Update @ 2:13 ET]: Andy Katz reports a few nuggets: (1) Minny has a certain player in mind for the 18th pick (rumor is either Earl Clark or James Johnson). If their guy(s) aren't available, they'll trade. (2) Brandon Jennings is considering pulling out of the green room. Basically, he's scared that Golden State, NYK, and Milwaukee will all pass on him, precipitating a fall into the 20s. If he doesn't pull out, it probably means he got a guarantee from somewhere. The next two tidbits deserve quotes, since they're Bulls-centric:

• Oklahoma City, Detroit and Chicago made assurances early on Thursday that they weren't dealing their top 16 picks.

• Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon received a number of calls earlier this week, and as late as Thursday, about DeJuan Blair's knees. Dixon, who is en route to New Zealand to coach the USA Under 19 national team playing in the World Championships, said he told the teams, including Indiana at No. 13, that Blair never missed a practice or game in his two years. Blair's knees have been questioned because he had ACL surgery on each knee in high school.

The first bullet seems to contradict a report from Poopsworld that the Bulls and Nets have an agreement to swap if Williams is there.

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[Update @ 12:31 ET]: Marc Stein reports that it's looking like Memphis will keep the #2 pick unless Minnesota gives up both #5 and #6 for it, which Minnesota says it won't do. On the Minny front, it's looking like Curry and Evans will be their two picks (if one of Rubio or Thabeet doesn't fall), but they're still aggressively working the phones for possible trades.

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Here's the latest update (I'll be updating this post as more interesting stuff comes in):

Chad Ford: Watch out for the Houston Rockets. Sources say they have been really active the past 24 hours, having contacted the Grizzlies, Thunder, Kings and Timberwolves about trying to get into the lottery.

It sound like virtually everyone on Houston's roster is available. Teams report that the Rockets are trying to parlay Tracy McGrady's expiring contract and Aaron Brooks' newfound celebrity status into one of Minnesota's lottery picks. Carl Landry and Shane Battier were also mentioned as possible trade pieces.

The Rockets are also among several teams that will be making a run at Amare Stoudemire. With Shaq gone, expect the Stoudemire rumors to start heating up again.

So Dork Elvis is making moves. This kind of scares me. He's one of the better GMs in the league, and Houston has some assets. I could certainly see them making a strong play for Amare and moving up to draft Blair (who seems like the type of player who could shine on all the secret advanced metrics they use down there in Houston; yes, that's a complete guess, but whatever). Then I can imagine self-immolation.

Chad Ford's Mock Draft 7.1 (Updated 1:42 PM)

arjoseph — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:57:10 -0000

Now it gets crazy. [Update: crazier.]

Ford plans on updating the Mock Draft throughout the day as he tries to nail down teams' intentions, and I'll do the same here ([Updates are bolded and bracketed.]). Since almost every team is looking at about four guys for each pick, it's all up in the air. I'd say it's even more up in the air given the uncertainty; the incentive for giving out disinformation to try to game the system seems more likely to work this year than ever.

A survey of the significant changes since Ford's last Mock:

1. Ford now has Curry and Evans going in the Top 5, which leaves Harden to fall all the way to the Knicks at 8. It doesn't really influence the Bulls unless they move up in the draft, but I thought it interesting. Apparently, if Minnesota can't move up to #2, they're hoping to get two of Thabeet, Rubio, and Evans with their two picks (i.e., they're hoping one of the first two fall). In this Mock, Ford has Thabeet and Rubio off the board, so the picks are Evans and Flynn.

[1a. Ford now has the Bucks taking Jennings at 10. Not super important, but he was one of the prospects nobody could place. The only potential importance to the Bulls is that this might influence the Pacers' pick at 13. Ford gives it a 70% chance.]

2. Ford has now flipped Henderson and Williams, the former going at 11 to the Nets and the latter going to the Bobcats at 12. The Nets have been one of the teams considering Hansbrough strongly, and one of the teams mentioned as a target for the Bulls' efforts to move up. It might be disinformation, but it looks like they'll take one of the swingmen now and let Hansbrough fall. As for the Bobcats, Ford mentions that Larry Brown fell in love with Wiliams, but that His Airness has taken a fancy to James Johnson. Since the Bulls have apparently been looking hard at Johnson, this could be very significant.

3. Ford has had Indiana taking Blair in the last couple of Mocks, but now he says they'll take Ty Lawson (60% confidence). [In version 7.1, Ford has them taking Jrue Holliday instead, at 60% confidence. Previously Ford had Holliday going to the Bucks, but now he has them taking Jennings. The implication is that Holliday is certainly higher than Blair or Hansbrough on Indiana's board. Lawson now goes to the Hawks at 19, which makes tons of sense after their trade.] Ford and Jack are FAs and Tinsley has completely moved in to the dog house, so Indiana could certainly use a PG. Ford's placement of Blair here was mostly as a "best available" pick, and now he seems to think they'll draft to need. Again, very significant.

4. In the last iteration of the Mock Draft, Ford had the Bulls picking James Johnson at 16 and Toney Douglas at 26. James Johnson seemed like the default pick, however, as Ford had Blair, Hansbrough, Williams, and Henderson off the board already. Now, he still has Johnson as the pick (with a 55% certainty), even though both Hansbrough and Blair are available. Here's what he has to say:

Confidence level: 55 percent

Analysis: The Bulls have been working the phones this week trying to move up in the draft.

They've talked to the Nets, Bobcats and Pacers about swapping the 16th and 26th picks to move up a few spots.

Who are they after? I've heard everything from Johnson to Blair to Hansbrough to Williams to Mullens here. Last night a new name, Omri Casspi, surfaced as a possibility. To be honest, I can't get a terrific handle on which way they are leaning.

Blair is the most physical. Casspi isn't far behind. Hansbrough is the most NBA-ready. Mullens has the most upside. Johnson is somewhere in between. I'm not sure exactly how Johnson fits in Chicago with Luol Deng on one side and Tyrus Thomas on the other, but there's no question about his upside.

Omri Casspi? Everything I've read about the dude seems great, but at #16? When Blair is available? When Hansbrough is available? If the Bulls pass on either one of those guys (but especially Blair) to pick Casspi or Johnson . . . I don't even know how to hyperbolize my disappointment. It's all uncertain now and nobody really knows who's going to pan out and how, but that would just seem like a huge blunder. I continue to hope that Gar Paxdorf is an evil genius and Johnson has been a complete smokescreen. In which case, bump that certainty up, Chad, to keep selling it. [None of this changed in 7.1.]

5. BJ Mullens to the Wolves at 18. We'll see. I have a feeling this pick will get traded.

6. Sam Young to the Hornets at 21 (70% confidence).

7. Blair to Portland at 22. Ford acknowledges that the Blazers moved up two spots to increase the likelihood of drafting Casspi (since everyone in the 20s is looking at him, apparently), but since Blair is available in this Mock, they can't pass him up. Basically, the last few Mocks demonstrate that Chad has no idea where Blair is going to go. Everyone is interested, and nobody is committing. Whether that means tons of teams are playing coy and hoping he falls, or whether that means everybody is leery and he really will fall, remains to be seen. If he's there at 16 and the Bulls don't take him . . . again, I can't even hyperbolize. The mere thought of it has me flummoxed.

8. Casspi to the Kings at 23.

9. Nick Calathes! Calathes is the projection at 26 now, not Toney Douglas, and at 70% confidence this looks like a solid rumor. I actually like the pick a lot. It helps the cap situation to stash him, and he seems like a talent who would be going higher if he were immediately available. It sets up a future European Invasion when both he and Asik come over. Imagine the marketing possibilities. (For smash: Toney is now going to the Lakers at 29.)

Chad Ford's Mock Draft 6.0

arjoseph — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:18:39 -0000

This one's interesting. Chad has once again updated his mock draft (in two parts, 1-5 here and 6-30 here for Insiders). A review on the movers and shakers and how it impacts the Bulls:

1. Because Monta Ellis thinks he's a PG and has strongarmed the Warriors into thinking so, too, Ford now has Golden State taking Jordan Hill with the 7th pick instead one of the bajillion true PGs available. This is significant because of the cascade effect leading to New Jersey taking Jonny Flynn 11th. Ford has had Hansbrough at 11th for the past few mocks, but says that "if Flynn is on the board, Nets GM Rod Thorn won't hesitate to take him." Partially because of this, he expects Hansbrough to fall all the way to Utah at #20 (meaning Ford expects him to be available to the Bulls if the Nets take Flynn).

2. Ford now believes Blair will be a Pacer (pick 13). Before all the knee drama, Ford reported that Blair would go well before 16, and now it seems he's trending back toward that opinion. It's not set in stone, however. Ford states that Indiana will look hard at a PG and would almost certainly take either Holliday or Flynn if either one dropped. Indiana is also looking at Hansbrough apparently. So, here's to hoping Holliday or Flynn are still on the board or Ty Lawson has wowed them in workouts.

3. Ford has Henderson going 14th to the Suns, but that's just a guess based on the fact that Henderson will be the highest prospect available. Chad mentions that the Suns have looked hard at Earl Clark, James Johnson, and BJ Mullens for this pick, as well.

4. Here's what Chad has to say about the Bulls:

Analysis: The Bulls have been working the phones this week trying to move up in the draft.

They've talked to the Nets, Bobcats and Pacers about swapping the 16th and 26th picks to move up a few spots.

Who are they after? I've heard everything from Johnson to Blair to Hansbrough to Williams to Mullens here. To be honest, I can't get a terrific handle on which way they are leaning. In this scenario, Williams and Blair are gone, which leaves Johnson, Mullens and Hansbrough.

Hansbrough is the most NBA ready. Mullens has the most upside. Johnson is somewhere in between. I'm not sure exactly how Johnson fits in Chicago with Luol Deng on one side and Tyrus Thomas on the other, but there's no question about his upside.

So, basically, he has no idea (although the pick is Johnson in this mock based on who's available).

5. Chad has Lawson going to Philly at 17, Mullens going to Minnesota at 18, and Hansbrough going to Utah at 20. Austin Daye goes to Sac-Town at 23 and Chase Budinger goes to OKC at 25. This all means that Chad still has the Bulls taking Toney Douglas at 26 (congrats, smash) as a Ben Gordon "insurance policy" and future running-mate of "Jalene" Rose.

Hollinger's Draft Rater

arjoseph — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 17:00:11 -0000

Every year, Hollinger performs a regression analysis to compare this year's prospects to last year's prospects. As he explains, the error rate on the analysis is pretty high, but the information provided by the Rater can identify some busts and some sleepers. Significantly, if the Rater puts a guy in the Top 5, there's almost no way he's a bust.

So what does the Rater say to Bulls fans?

1. Ty Lawson is undervalued. Hollinger talks about this at great length, so I won't parrott what he says. What does it mean for the Bulls? Not much, I think. Most mock drafts have him gone before 26, and with the Bulls having two starter-ready point guards already, I don't think he makes sense at 16 (even if he might be an All-Star some day). If he does drop to 26, though, he could be the steal of the draft.

2. DeJuan Blair is indeed the truth. He rates 7th on the Rater (out of the 90 prospects Hollinger runs through the analysis) with a score of 13.56. That compares favorably to some guys from years past: Chris Wilcox (13.28), Chris Bosh (13.08), Nick Collison (13.03), David West (12.85), Chris Kaman (12.2), Emeka Okafor (13.08), LaMarcus Aldridge (13.01), Tyrus Thomas (13.44), and Al Horford (13.45). Anyone who has looked into it knows he's got some of the prime indicators of a beast (his rebound rate is off the charts, and that's usually a good indicator). If only his knees weren't mush, I'd be all about him at 16. I still might be, as the medical risk might be less than the risk of suckitude with the other Bulls prospects. Speaking of which . . .

3. Cool your jets on Hansbrough. Hollinger doesn't say much about him (or anything at all, actually), but he shows up at the bottom of the second tier at 24th. Maybe that's not a surprise, but for all of us who have been increasing our opinions of Hansbrough based on his measurements, we might want to readjust opinions to pre-combine levels. The Rater takes into account things like height, weight, and such, so it's not blind to such things. Overall, I guess, he's the player we all thought he was: steady, low-ceiling but high floor. It's just that the ceiling might be lower than we thought.

4. Cool your jets on Mullens. Again, not that surprising. Hollinger points out that the Rater is least reliable with one-and-dones. It's going to be even less reliable with a one-and-done who barely played. Nothing to see here: Mullens didn't do anything in college to impress. We knew that. Hollinger speculates, however, that maybe the middle of the first round is still too high for the risk.

5. Extinguish your jets on Toney Douglas. Chad Ford's most recent mock had Douglas to the Bulls at 26, but the Rater has him at 62nd. Another non-surprise: short shooting guards don't tend to do well in the NBA. Some do, and the Rater looks for those indicators, but apparently Toney don't got 'em.

Before seeing these numbers, I was pretty much ambivalent about the three main reported targets for the 16th pick (Blair, Hansbrough, Mullens). Now, I think I'd rank them Blair, Mullens, Hansbrough. I know I'm putting the riskier guys ahead of the "safe" pick, but there's the risk, too, with Hansbrough: maybe he doesn't produce enough to justify him being in the rotation. The assumption that he's safe depends on thinking he can be at least an 8th or 7th man. I don't think that's a given. Blair, if he can play, will produce, so he gets the nod in my book; you'll roll the dice on how much he plays, but you know you're getting quality when he does. And as for Mullens, I think the upside is just too great. While he might not have the googly-eyed intensity that Hansbrough does, he also doesn't have the couch-potato mentality of a Sweetney. The guy's going to work. With some coaching, I have no doubt he could be at least a rotation guy (like a Mihm on a good day, or a Krstic type guy).

Anybody see anything else significant in the Rater?

(For comparison's sake, here are previous years' Rater results.)

A Case for Byron James Mullens

arjoseph — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:33:50 -0000

In the face of reports that the Bulls want to draft B.J. Mullens with the 16th pick and realizing I don't know much about the kid (other than the fact that he's big, athletic, and a statistical disappointment), I thought I'd do some research. I've become even more irrationally excited about drafting Mullens than I am about bringing over Omer Asik. After reading some things and watching some things, I think I might have convinced myself that getting Mullens at 16 would be a major coup.

My thoughts:

1. Knowing that Mullens was one of the top big-man prospects coming out of high school, I wondered how he stacked up against other recent big-man high schoolers. Since most high school highlight reels for guys Mullens' size consist of dunks on 6'3" guys, I sought out stats. Here's what I found (stats are per game and culled from All-USA team announcements):

B.J. Mullens: 27 ppg, 15 rpg, 3 bpg.
Amare Stoudemire: 29 ppg, 15 rpg, 6 bpg.
Kevin Love: 34 ppg, 17 rbg, 4 bpg.
Greg Oden: 20 ppg, 10 rbg, 3.7 bpg.
Spencer Hawes: 20 ppg, 12 rbg, 4 bpg.
Dwight Howard: 25.5 ppg, 18 rpg, 8 bpg.
Al Jefferson: 42 ppg, 18 rpg, 7 bpg.

I think looking at these high school stats can be informative despite all the things you can say against using them (wildly divergent high school programs and competition levels, for one; the huge advantage being 7'1" in high school as compared to higher levels of ball; no information on minutes played; etc.). The first thing these stats demonstrate, to me, is that Al Jefferson was a raging beast in high school. The second thing is that you can't infer much from them regarding offensive skill. Dwight Howard is nobody's prototypical post scorer, and he scored more than Spencer Hawes, whose bread-and-butter is offense. Mullens is closer to Amare than Oden, but take that with a grain of salt. More telling are the rebounding and block numbers in my mind. Mullens' relatively low block numbers compared to guys like Love and Hawes (both inferior athletes to him) suggests he may not have innate defensive instincts to fall back on. Similarly, being in the same rebound ballpark as Amare (rather than Howard or Jefferson) suggests he might be an adequate but not dominant rebounder. All told, I think his high school stats suggest Mullens will not be an immediate defensive force.

In my mind, that's perfectly OK. We have defensive big men already. We've been looking for a credible offensive big man forever. As long as he isn't getting beaten to a pulp inside, I don't care. We shouldn't be expecting an Olajuwon-esque complete center at pick 16 of a weak draft anyway. And I think there are indications Mullens could be a good offensive center.

2. Video of Mullens Working Out for Washington. Workouts, of course, can be deceiving. Yi Jianlian's infamous pwnage of a folding chair is a cautionary tale. This video of Mullens' workout for the Wizards, however, seems encouraging, specifically the part where he drains a bunch of elbow-distance jumpers with pretty nice-looking form on his shot. He keeps the ball elevated and out in front of him and seems to get good rotation on the ball. He's going nowhere near game speed, but as an approximation of a spot-up jumper, this could look a whole lot worse. One of the knocks on Mullens that I'd heard before investigating was that he can't shoot. This does not look like a man who can't shoot. This looks like a guy who could develop Brad-Miller range.

3. Video Highlights from Fox Sports. As mentioned before, I couldn't find many highlights of Mullens doing anything but dunking, but this video shows a nifty jump hook and Mullens finishing with a layup on a fast break. Of course, this needs to be taken with a brick of rock salt as highlight films by their very nature pick and choose positive things to show (for instance, I bet you could put together a lengthy clip of Tyrus making jump hooks and layups and think he had the best hands in the world). But combined with Draft Express holding as one of his great positives his finishing ability and his great hands, I think this might be a fair representation of his capability. Not shabby.

4. Putting all this together. It's kind of an easy comparison since he's on the team and beloved by certain purveyors of this blog, but I wouldn't be surprised if Mullens could approximate Brad Miller on the court. I say approximate because there's no indication Mullens has his passing skill, his on-court IQ, or his "I'll-stand-up-to-Shaq" toughness, but from a skill standpoint he could be the type of center that holds his own defensively, has range on his jump shot, and has good hands around the basket. He seems like a good kid. I doubt he's ever been seriously coached. But even if he never reaches full potential, I don't see how he doesn't become in fairly short time a useful (think 10 min/g) role player, and in time perhaps a 25 min/g role player. That, to me, is the floor. Considering that he has the highest ceiling of any guy potentially available at 16, I don't see how we shouldn't pick him if he's there.

(Commence the refutation of all my points.)

Chad Ford's Mock Draft 5.0

arjoseph — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:14:48 -0000

Chad Ford's Mock Draft 5.0

[From the FanShots -ed.]

Since the pool of draftable players is now solid and Chad has gained more information from "NBA team sources," he has updated his mock draft. For most teams his prognostications haven't changed. For the Bulls, however, things are a-movin'. Ford buys into the Mullens-to-Chicago talk:

"Analysis: There's been talk that the Bulls might take a look at Tyler Hansbrough and DeJuan Blair, if available. Both are definitely the kind of player John Paxson likes. But the word around the league this weekend was that the Bulls might have made a promise to Mullens, who has the most long-term upside of any remaining center, a position at which Chicago needs help. He's raw, but it's rare to get a talent like this after the lottery."

Ford still has Hansbrough going 11th to New Jersey, saying that the Nets have narrowed their choice to Hansbrough or Terrence Williams. He has Blair dropping all the way to the Hornets at 21. Personally, with the dearth of big men in this draft, I find that very hard to believe. No doubt teams are leery of committing to him now, but somebody's going to jump on the Blair train before 21 come draft night.

Chad Ford's Mock Draft 4.0

arjoseph — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 18:27:16 -0000

Chad Ford's Mock Draft 4.0

I think the link might be Insider only. He has Blair dropping to the Bulls at 16. He has the Bulls selecting Toney Douglas at 26. Other notables are Hansbrough to the Nets at 11 (formerly he had them taking Blair); Gerald Henderson to the Bobcats at 12; Earl Clark to Detroit at 15; BJ Mullens to the Wolves at 18; James Johnson at 21 to the Hornets; Terrence Williams to Dallas at 22; and Chase Budinger to the Hijacked Sonics at 25.

Simmons on Celtics vs. Bulls, again

arjoseph — Fri, 01 May 2009 17:18:01 -0000

Simmons on Celtics vs. Bulls, again

This about sums it up: "I am prepared for anything: KG pulling a Willis Reed, Jordan and Bird showing up, Rondo hitting John Salmons with a chair, Doc running the series-deciding play for Tony Allen, Kevin Harlan's head flying off his body, Tim Thomas experiencing a human emotion, you name it. That's the best thing about this series: Anything is possible. The ceiling hasn't just been removed, it's been obliterated."

Amateur "Hot Hand" Study on Ben Gordon (via TrueHoop)

arjoseph — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 19:10:51 -0000

Amateur "Hot Hand" Study on Ben Gordon (via TrueHoop)

Aparently Ben has his best games when he starts off cold. Here's to hoping he goes 2 for 6 in the opening quarter of game 4!

Leon Powe Done for the Year: Torn ACL

arjoseph — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:16:04 -0000

Leon Powe Done for the Year: Torn ACL

[This is the biggest news from Game 2. The Bulls have a serious frontcourt advantage now. -ed.]

How many PF do they have left now? Big Baby. Mikki Moore. That's it.