The League

This is the ultimate GM challenge. What would you do in a given situation? This league is designed to give you all of the tools the NBA teams have at their disposal to build your NBA team. Everything in this will work just like it does in the NBA. From regular season basketball, to the playoffs, to the draft lottery and the draft, and finally wrapping up with free agency. If it’s in the NBA, it’s in our league. In the inaugural draft we will select players from all the NBA teams, as well as the upper tier talent in Europe (over 20). Each team in addition to its 15 man roster, will also select its head coach. All players that are selected will come with their current NBA or European salaries. Those salaries can be found at these sites.

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/08-09salaries.htm

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=827725

To avoid confusion in free agency, when a player has a chance to become a free agent (the opt out clause), we will automatically assume that he does. I will post all available players and their contracts within a week of getting all 30 teams filled.

Please, before you sign up, make sure to read the entirety of this post, as it is all important to know if you'd like to participate in this league. Also, as has been the case with leagues I've run in the past, there will be more people that would like to participate than there are spots in the league. If I'm familiar with you on this board, I'll be able to sign you up immediately, but if I'm not familiar with you and you also don't have a substantial number of posts, I won't be able to add you until the end of sign ups (January 15th). Please post your S/N and the team you'd like to run in your first post here.

The 2009 Schedule

1. The Inaugural Draft (8 Round Draft) - Late January
2. Trade Period - February
3. Regular Season Polls - March-April
   
4. NBA Draft Lottery - May 19th
   
5. Playoff Polls - May-June
   
6. NBA Draft - Late June
   
7. Free Agent Period - July-August
8. 2010 Season Begins

The Inaugural Draft (Late January)
The draft will consist of 8 rounds in a rotisserie-style order. The first round will be 1 player per pick, followed by seven rounds of 2 players per pick. This will make for a total of 16 picks (15 players, 1 coach). With those picks you must remain under the 65 million dollar salary cap for year 1 (It's 65 million because a lot of teams are over the cap and the average NBA salary is 70 Million. The 2009 season will also be 65 million. After that, the cap will go up by 3-5 million dollars per season) There are no trades before or during the Inaugural Draft.

Trade Period (The first week after the Inaugural Draft)
In the first year there won’t be much time to trade because of how quickly we’ll be making our way into the playoffs. But there will be a week long period after the Inaugural Draft for everyone to trade. In future seasons, the trade deadline will be the actual NBA trade deadline, and we’ll adhere to their timetable. Trades must be approved by a trade committee (3/5 members must approve). All trades must comply with all salary cap rules and regulations. Teams thought to be cheating will be docked picks, or tossed from the league entirely.

2009 Regular Season (1 Week Long Poll Per Division - 5 Divisions, March-April)
The regular season will consist of polls taken at various times during the year. Each division will have a poll (4 times per year), and the teams will then be ordered based on their cumulative scores. The top 16 teams will advance to the playoffs with their seeds being based upon those scores. In year 1, it will be determined based on a single poll because of the shortened season.

2009 Playoffs (1 Week Long Poll Per Matchup, May-June)
After teams are seeded based on their scores, they will begin the playoff run. Note that the playoffs will no longer be divided into a Western and Eastern bracket, but one 16 team pool of the best teams in the league. The playoffs will then run 1 Vs 16, 8 Vs 9 etc, until the ultimate champion is crowned for that season.

2009 Draft Lottery (May 19th)
Again, this will work just like the real-life NBA Draft Lottery. All the teams that did not qualify for the playoffs will be put in the lottery based on their cumulative scores, and based on the results of the actual lottery we’ll have our results as well (If the worst team gets the first pick in real life, the worst team will get the first pick in our draft as well… etc). Here is a helpful look at typical percentages for the Draft Lottery.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Lottery

2009 NBA Draft (Late June)
Each team based on the results of the draft lottery will be spotted in the first round, while the second round will be based solely on the regular season cumulative scores of the polls (best drafts last). Each player that is drafted will be given the salary that is associated with the draft position they're selected at . All 2nd round draft picks will be given one or two year deals depending on the GM’s decision.

2009 Free Agency (July-August)
Free Agency will work much the same as it does in the NBA with a couple minor rule changes for our convenience. First off, every player that has an option for more years has decided to decline that option. This will help us kick free agency off with a bang, and it will make it a lot easier on us as drafters, by taking all the guesswork out of each player’s contract. The salary cap for year one will be 65 million dollars. Multiple teams may offer players contracts, and even max contracts, but the team furthest under the salary cap is the team that player will decide to join (if multiple teams bid the same amount). Teams can only pull rank (salary cap rank) on one player per week in free agency. This means that if a team is below the salary cap by multiple max contracts it will only be allowed to pull their (furthest below the salary cap) card for their most desired free agent. Free agency will work during real time as a bidding system. After a bid has been on the table for 48 hours it will become final, and the winning team will sign that player to a contract. Teams that are at or over the cap (it will be hard to get over the cap in our league) will be allowed the mid-level exception. That means essentially, they’ll have 6 million dollars to work with in free agency, regardless of their cap situation. Each team will be allowed to sign one player to a 4 year deal, one player to a 3 year deal, one player to a 2 year deal, and the rest to 1 year deals (later years are usually player options anyway).

Expansion (hopefully soon)
The second that David Stern (or whomever the new commish is) announces that there will be an expansion team, we’ll add them to our league. I’m hoping Seattle and possibly a couple European teams are added to the league in the near future.

Rosters (15 Man + Coach)
Rosters will consist of 5 starters, 7 bench players, 3 extra roster spots and a head coach. Head coaches will be given contracts based on draft position. (1st 6 – 5 years, 2nd 6 – 4 years, 3rd 6 – 3 years, 4th 6 – 2 years, and final 6 - 1 year.) When it comes time to hire coaches, the team with the most cap room will pick first, and it will go in order from there. Teams aren’t allowed to fire their coach until after the season is over. Teams with expiring coaches contracts pick before the teams with fired coaches pick. Available coaches include all College, NBA and European coaches that have coached a team in the last 2 years.

Team (General Manager)

Pacific Division

Portland Blazers (as11osu)
Los Angeles Clippers
Sacramento Kings
Los Angeles Lakers (Sabonis4Ever)
Phoenix Suns
Golden State Warriors

Southwest Division

Utah Jazz
Dallas Mavericks
Denver Nuggets
Houston Rockets
San Antonio Spurs
Oklahoma City Thunder

Southeast Division

Charlotte Bobcats
Memphis Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks
Miami Heat
New Oreleans Hornets
Orlando Magic

Central Division

Milwaukee Bucks
Chicago Bulls
Indiana Pacers
Detroit Pistons
Minnesota Timberwolves
Cleveland Cavaliers

Atlantic Division

Philadelphia 76ers 
Boston Celtics
New York Knicks
Brooklyn Nets
Toronto Raptors
Washington Wizards 

Just had a random thought, and wanted to post it in the daily trade post, but there hasn't been one started today.

Earlier this month, I suggested that Bryan Colangelo had better hop on the active GM's list, or his team was going to be in serious jeopardy. Today, that has been magnified by an embarrassing loss to the Bennet City Hijackers (thanks BS) by 8 points. I know one game never a season makes, but this team was already stranded out on the wire about as far as it could go. Anyways, back to the real question at hand.

How does this situation effect the two franchise guys? Chris Bosh isn't going to be on the team past 2010, and most likely will start to aline himself with the door, in the next couple of months probably undermining any progress the Raptors try to make as an organization. Chris Bosh is the main piece that in my opinion HAS to be traded. If this team waits out the situation and ends up getting nothing for Bosh, it'll be Colanelo's greatest mistake as a GM, even more so than drafting Bargnani #1.

The other key piece of course being their franchise level talent at point guard, Jose Calderon. He was just signed this offseason, and that might give them a little more time to make the decision, but I can't see that being the Raptors best play in this circumstance. Lets for a second see where this might go.

On the trading block you have a 27 year old point guard in his prime, coming off a breakout season, being coveted not only for his ability to shoot, but for his ability to maximize any half court offense. He's innately gifted in making the right pass, taking the open shot, and getting the ball to the players when and where they need the ball. The Raptors regardless of how any of this works out, probably won't be a player for the playoffs for another 3 years.

At that point you have a 30 or 31 year old point guard thats on his last legs, as the team you're building is an up and comer. That players value has decreased severley over the years, both from age and from playing for years on a lottery team that has little chance to win. It stands to reason, the best they can get for Calderon right now, right this second, gives them the best chance to maximize their rebuilding efforts.

Where oh where are we going to find a good trading partner for one of, or both of these players? Is there a team in the NBA that has an excess of young talent, future draft picks, expiring contracts, and the kind of talent that fits into Colangelo's vision on an NBA team?

Any wild guesses out there?

Also, feel free to post any general trade thoughts or ideas here...

Its going to be impossible for me not to seem biased for Sergio in this post, so I'll just go ahead and own it. I've been a huge Sergio fan ever since he became a Blazer. Earlier in fact. I've been paying attention to foreign prospects for a while (I'm kind of a draft geek), and was enamored enough with Sergio, that I told a friend he was the guy we needed to select when we added that pick from PHX. To my utter astonishment, KP made my dream a reality. Ever since then, Sergio has been my favorite player on the team.

However, I'm a realist, well, a pessimist really. Last year after watching his play (mostly cringe inducing), I became aware of the potential parting of ways between Sergio and the Blazers. Even though I didn't like Bayless' game more than Sergio's, I had to admit, like any objective person, that he was not only the better fit with Roy, but probably the more likely long term answer for this team. Although you still have to back your guy (thanks timbo, for helping me find my passion again), I stated the obvious reasons you can't just let a guy like Sergio go and rot away on the bench (age, elite and unusual talents etc).

Then I went to that preseason game against Sacremento, and I saw the chemistry he and Rudy had on the court. It was as immediate and obvious as any combo you'll ever see play together. I fell back in love with all the things I had always loved about his game. During this early run, not only has he exhibited that rookie season flair and insanely high assist ratio  we all grew to love two years ago, but you have begun to see his development as an overall basketball player. Most importantly to his potential future here in Portland were his improvements in two areas, his defense and his three point shooting.

I know, I know, his three point percentage is average (its actually slightly above average 37%). But it actually isn't. His true three point percentage is actually above 40%. When I took a look at the box score today, and saw Sergio Rodriguez 3/9, and 2/4 from three, I thought, that isn't the game I just saw. Those shots don't represent even his shooting impact on the game. The part I won't significantly get into here is the fact that on two of his missed shots, that he blew past the player defending him, and caused a big to challenge his shot (allowing Joel and LaMarcus to dunk off his missed layups). The part I want to get into is part of the un-stats. Specifically the half court heaves that show up on your box score, but represent zero of your ability to reasonably and effectively hit your three point shot in a game. As it stands now, Sergio Rodriguez is 14 for 38 on the year from three (37%). 5 of those shots, or 13% of his three point shots for the year have been of the half court heave variety. 13%, I've concluded is among the highest percentages of half court heaves to three point shots in the NBA. Steve Blake by comparison, has shot 3 of them on the year (3% of his threes) . His real, honest to goodness 3 point percentage is 45/103 (106 w/ half court heaves) or 43.7%. By comparison, right now Sergio sits at 14/33 (38 w/ half court heaves) or 42.4%. When someone in the game threads throws up their arms (or like computer anology), feel free to let them know, when Sergio Rodriguez has an open three point shot, not only is it not the end of the world, it actually results in a T(otal)S(hot)% of 64%. I've compiled a list of guards that have a TS% of over 64%... Steve Nash. The point being, when you're criticizing Sergio's game this year, be fair about it. Things you're allowed to complain about on the offensive end include; Sergio's inability to finish at the rack and his inability to make supposedly easy mid range buckets... end of list.

The more important improvement in Sergio's game has been on the defensive end. Because stats on this end are harder to quantify, most of you will just have to rely on what you've seen on the court. Sergio gets into his player almost immediately upon that player passing the half court line (if not sooner), and he isn't playing off of them, but he's playing really tight defense. This eliminates a lot of his natural deficiencies as an athlete. While athletic, Sergio has a tendency to get his feet crossed when defending quicker PG's. When he plays up tight on the guys, he essentially forces them to choose their path, eliminating the potential cross overs, and Ole's, that people around here love to throw at him. Due to his toughness on the defensive end, point guards really have to work to get anything at all against him. Of the stats that are quantifiable on defense, Sergio is fairing very well. In 15 minutes per game, he's averaging 0.8 steals per game, which ends up at 2.4 steals per 48, which of the qualifying PG's in the league ranks him at  #12 in that category, and if you adjust for pace, he's actually closer to 2.6 steals per 48, which would put him at #8 for qualiying PG's. The better and more important numbers I have to go to 82games.com for. http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR2.HTM  - If you go down to production by position, you'll notice that the player that Sergio defends this year averages 6 assists and over 3 turnovers per 48 minutes. Thats incredibly low production for any PG. The player he's defending this year is also shooting an abysmal 36% eFG from the floor. Of the 66 PG's in the league that qualify not a single one of them shoots less than that from the floor. Basically, once again trying to endorse fairness on BE, if we're going to fairly assess his weakness on the defensive end, we can't discuss the Ole' part of his game anymore. The worst you could say about him, based strictly on his play from this season, is that he occasionally suffers from mental lapses. It appears that physically, he will eventually be able to control, or at least mitigate to some degree opposing PG's ability to gain easy access to the painted area. He has gotten to the point, where most possessions he's involved in usually end with the PG having to give the ball up to a less adept ball handler as soon as they cross the half court line. Rarely this year have we seen someone dominate Sergio in one on one situations for even a couple possessions in a row.

I guess what I'd like to get from this, is some fair and honest assessment on what you think Sergio's future could be here, or with another team. And if you'd prefer the future of this team to involve him or not. Not necessarily whether you care for his game, but in an ideal world, in 3-4 years can you see, or do you want to see him on the team. If so, how? Starting? Backing up? 10 minutes per game? 20 minutes per game? etc...

After doing some number crunching today (spare time), I found it possible for the first time, that we might have enough money to sign a max contract FA during the summer of 2010. Before, I thought it was an impossibility, given the fact we have to sign both LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy to max deals. Today I did the math, and found out with a single basic trade (Przybilla for a $6 million expring contract), we could be in position to get one of the 2010 max contract FA's. This situation also assumes, we don't add anyone else to our salary for the 2010 season. We could also sign our 1st round picks for both the 2009 and 2010 drafts (so long as we're in the 20's) and still have room for the 2010 FA.

Here are the players we'd have around for 2010 and their contracts (In Millions)

1. Brandon Roy (13.7)
   
2. LaMarcus Aldridge (13.7)
3. Greg Oden (6.8)
4. Martell Webster (4.8)
5. Jerryd Bayless (2.3)
6. Rudy Fernandez (1.2)
7. Nicolas Batum (1.2)
8. 2009 1st Round Pick (1.2)
9. 2010 1st Round Pick (1.2)

That puts us at $46.7 million for the 2010 season and $18.3 million under that years expected salary cap. Just for reference, each player in that stellar draft class of 2003 can make up to $16.4 Million for the 2010 season (gradually increasing from there). The issue here isn't so much the player to get (obviously LeBron), but its if you want to sacrifice all of our leftovers for the chance to get one of the 2010 FA's. Just for arguments sake, lets say we go the other FA route, and decide to pull the trigger on Hedo Turkoglu this summer (after letting RLEC run out). If we went this route, we'd be able to keep Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw and Channing Frye (again just for arguments sake we give him what we gave Martell). We'd have one of, if not the deepest teams in NBA history.

PG: Blake / Sergio / Bayless
SG: Roy / Rudy
SF: Hedo / Martell / Batum
PF: Aldridge / Outlaw / Frye
C: Oden / Przy

We could have these players from that point going forward, making all sorts of trades and draft picks, but we probably wouldn't be able to make another signing above the Mid-Level Exception for the next 10 years. Everything would be static except for the draft picks and trades (KP is proven, I have no qualms with this).

In the other scenario, our 2009 summer would be much the same, only instead of being able to sign Hedo for the multiple year big dollar contract he'd want, we'd probably have to settle on a guy willing to come here for $15-20 million dollars for 1 year as a hired gun (old dude that wants a Championship). In this scenario, again, we could pick up the options of Blake and Outlaw (Frye wouldn't sign a 1 year deal) and still have the leftover capital for that hired gun (Allen Iverson, Jason Kidd, Lamar Odom, Mike Bibby). In this scenario lets run with Kidd (oldest specialty player at supposed position of need). In this scenario we seem just about as likely to win a Championship.

PG: Kidd / Blake / Sergio
SG: Roy / Rudy / Bayless
SF: Martell / Batum
PF: Aldridge / Outlaw
C: Oden / Przy

The difference of course, comes in how we proceed after that important summer of 2010. In one scenario we have Hedo, Blake, Outlaw, Przybilla, Sergio and Frye and in the other scenario we have one of the big names (LeBron, Wade, Amare, Bosh, Joe Johnson, Nowitzki). The question then becomes how much depth is really needed in this league. Even if we go the 2010 route, and pick up Joe Johnson for instance, we'd still have our 2009 and 2010 draft picks, as well as possibly bringing over Koponen and Freeland for the tail end of the bench. So when all is said and done, if KP doesn't solve our problems through a trade this season, he's got two distinct options. I'll list what our A and B teams will look like, and I'd like to get some feedback on which team you'd all prefer going forward with in the long run.

Team A - 2009 Long Term FA w/ all current Blazers included (Players age in 2010)

PG: Blake (30) / Sergio (24) / Bayless (22) / Koponen (22)
SG: Roy (26) / Rudy (25)
SF: Martell (24) / Batum (21)
PF: Aldridge (25) / Outlaw (26) / Freeland (23)
C: Oden (22) / Przy (31)

Additions:

1 Long Term 2009 Free Agent:  (Hedo Turkoglu (31), Lamar Odom (31), Shawn Marion (32), Ben Gordon (27))
2 1st Round Draft Picks (2009, 2010), 6 Total 2nd Rounders

Team B - 2010 Superstar FA w/o additional Blazers included

PG: Bayless (22) / Koponen (22)
SG: Roy (26) / Rudy (25)
SF: Martell (24) / Batum (21)
PF: Aldridge (25)  / Freeland (23)
C: Oden (22)

Additions:

1 Long Term 2010 Free Agent: (LeBron (25), Wade (28), Amare (28), Bosh (26), Joe Johnson (29), Nowitzki (32))
2 1st Round Draft Picks (2009, 2010), 6 Total 2nd Rounders

PER Rankings

I don't know how many stat nuts are on this site, but I'm a big fan of as many as can be provided. Thus far, 6 games into his NBA career Greg Oden is the 12th most efficient overall player, 1 spot ahead of K*be. He also has the #1 overall rebound rate in the entire league. Total Rebound Rate - He gathers up 23.3% of all available rebounds. He also is the 2nd most prolific blocker for his time on the court. He's averaging 5.81 blocks per 48, and if you adjust for pace, he'd easily be #1 overall (Turiaf is currently #1 thanks to GS's ridiculous pace). He's also not as bad as has been reported on the offensive end. He currently has a total shot % of .587 (44th overall) and is scoring around 24 points per 48 minutes. That means if he's able to settle down at 32 minutes per game, even without improvement, on the average we can expect 16 points, 12 boards and 4 blocks.

I was getting as worried as anyone after he got injured, and equally so after the Miami game in which he looked really raw, but I'm feeling quite comforted in his play the last week, and in this teams future. Without Oden this team didn't have the potential to be leaps and bounds better than anyone. With him, in 3-4 years I EXPECT an NBA Championship.