• joined Feb 06, 2009
  • last login Jul 07, 2014
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User Blog

Were you happy with the Raymond Felton era?

Let us try to judge this little wager as non-judgmentally as possible. It appears Raymond will be heading off to greener pastures, while the Blazers ought to be happy with their new rook. Should I...

David Thorpe on Nuggs Lakers game 7 reffing


"If you're not gonna call it, game 7 Nuggets/Lakers, clear advantage doesn't go to the home team, it goes to the stronger team. And this is NBA basketball, why are we deciding the stronger, tougher team that way wins? It's supposed to be a game of skill and athleticism too, so in order to find out who the best team is, we have a rule book. Let's just call it as we see it based on the rule book instead of making up some other game, which is the stronger team has the advantage in game 7."

Tanking and Fan Support


Last year, the 29th and 30th teams in attendance both went to the playoffs! What hasn't been mentioned is a Franchise stuck in the lower half of the playoffs (4~8 seeds) is just as likely to erode their fan support as a team that's tanking for draft picks. If the Playoffs started today, 5 teams would be in the bottom half in overall attendance (Philly, Atlanta, Memphis, Denver & Indiana). And two of those franchises won a playoff series last year!

Sebastian Pruiti: Kenneth Faried is already an excellent post defender


Don't worry about the ranking, check this awesome description: Kenneth Faried has proven his reputation as a tremendous effort guy. He plays very impressive defense in the post, holding players to a PPP of 0.5888, which places him among the top 10 percent of all defenders. He uses his size (he's 6-foot-8) and strength to his advantage, and he does it without fouling. Faried has committed fouls in post-up situations just 5.9 percent of the time, a very low number for a rookie defender as aggressive and strong as Faried. This combination of strength and finesse is something you don't often see in bigs, especially rookies. He has the potential to turn into one of the best post defenders in the NBA.

Daryl Morey Talks Player Development


"We actually don't know who's going to pan out. We do know how to shift our odds and bring in a lot of high potential prospects, and we bring them in continually Sometimes they pan out (Chandler Parsons) and sometimes they hit bumps in the road, like we brought in Terrance Williams." ... "We don't know which of them are going to pan out, and we are going to waive some of them. But the answer is not to bring in castoffs from the Knicks... guys without upside. And it does put a lot of pressure on our coaching staff. Which is why, McHale, I'm so excited about the job he's done and working with him because I always tell him we're adding a degree of difficulty, if you have the end of the bench with a bunch of guys who know their roles it's going to be easier for the coach "But if you're trying to turn that corner into a Championship contender you gotta bring in young guys, and they're all gonna want to play, and it's going to put a lot of pressure on the coach. They're not going to know how to play defense right away and it adds a whole degree of difficulty to coaching that I don't think people appreciate." _______________________________ Get kids and play kids!

Coon: Breakdown Of NBA's New CBA & The Greg Oden Rule

Larry Coon,'s salary cap expert, has a great (tentative) Collective Bargaining Agreement breakdown which includes reference to a so-called "Greg Oden Rule." ---------------------------------- 2011 CBA: Players can qualify for a better qualifying offer by meeting certain criteria. High-drafted players might receive a lower qualifying offer by failing to meet the same criteria. Who benefits? The higher qualifying offers help ensure that lower-drafted players who become starters or regular rotation players receive a salary that is in line with their performance. Conversely, the lower qualifying offer for underperforming high draft picks helps protect teams. For instance, rather than submitting an $8.8 million offer to retain the rights to Greg Oden, Portland would be able to offer much less. In fact, I fully expect this to be nicknamed the "Greg Oden Rule." ---------------------------------- ed: text edited, bumped to front page

New Season Trade Drawer!

Can't believe there isn't one of these already! Let's get cracking. Obviously the new trade rules may make it somewhat easier to make trades, but I don't expect it to be significantly different.

The Stupid Moral Panic over Mocking Tim Tebow


I thought this was a thought-provoking article about why the media coverage of Tim's religion is so shallow. ___________________________________________ I'll go a step further and say that, in so doing, Tebow knows full well that he is opening himself up to satire, because that is also a part of the deal evangelicals make when they dedicate themselves to converting a skeptical public. That's why, when Clay Travis famously asked in a press conference if Tebow was a virgin and caused so many sportswriters to flutter their lace hankies, Tebow simply smiled and answered the question. He wants people to ask that question. He wants every opportunity to talk about his beliefs in public, and he is smart enough to know that he will often rile folks in the process. Bruce Arthur and Jemele Hill and the Very Serious Media People are throwing a sneeze-guard around Tebow's religion that Tebow never would've asked for in the first place.

Why you should not gamble on pro football


College basketball expert Ken Pomeroy with an interesting little study about how hard it is to consistently pick against the spread.


Broncos stat canvass and Packers preview: yuck

Gloiven, my calculator says that game really, really, really sucked. Anyway, the computers dropped the Broncos from 20th to the range of 25 or so. The offense was again the culprit, and appears to...

Which QBs hold the ball?


Football Outsiders takes a look at which quarterbacks were most likely to take a sack after holding the ball for three or more seconds on a dropback. Orton is slightly below average, while Peyton is #1 with a bullet.


Denver Broncos stat pulse and Titans preview

I've posted a few stat-oriented blog posts here that have initiated decent discussion, and since it doesn't seem like there is a really regular geek presence on the sidebar, I thought I'd do a...

Rushing stats for the Carolina Panthers during the Fox era. Anybody care to explain John Fox's...


Rushing stats for the Carolina Panthers during the Fox era. Anybody care to explain John Fox's reputation as some sort of running guru? It looks like his teams are like the rest of the league: they do well when they throw well. Except he just likes to run a lot even when it's not working.


WPA is neat, but please be responsible (UPDATED X2)

As you may have been able to tell in my few comments here, I am a bit of a stat geek. I like to look at numbers and use them to evaluate team and individual performance. I am also a big fan of Win...


Pessimism: why I expect Raymond Felton to regress this year.

No real purpose for the timing of this post except that I was reading Basketball on Paper and it got me thinking about the shot clock. The shot clock makes shot creation a crucial commodity in...


Is clutch a skill and does Orton have it?: a simple experiment.

ThThere are a good number of reasons that Kyle Orton isn't really a Super Bowl quarterback. His accuracy is somewhat inconsistent, his mobility and pocket awareness range from mediocre to...


Fox's management of 2nd and long: something to watch for in the regular season

Let's start with the caveats: the preseason is not the regular season and it is dumb to jump to any conclusions. Fox wants basically a perfect run-pass balance (achieved last night 34-34) which...


Why the NBA's suck-draft-contend cycle is a problem (with POLL!)

There are about three ways to build a contending team: be in a market with prestige and cash (Los Angeles and Miami), pull in a group of either unheralded or unhappy veterans (Detroit, 2004,...


Shot creation: one reason we'll miss Andre Miller

Conventional analysis of the Andre Miller/Raymond Felton trade seems to boil down to the general notion that the Trail Blazers received a better fitting player who's slightly worse, but also much...

Collusion: Webster's definition


a secret understanding between two or more persons to gain something illegally, to defraud another of his or her rights, or to appear as adversaries though in agreement: collusion of husband and wife to obtain a divorce. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- For some reason people keep using the term "collusion" to apply to the Miami Heat. That is incorrect. Collusion involves cooperation while maintaining the continued impression of competition in the marketplace, litigation or other arena.

Dean Oliver on the new Nuggets


Ex-Nuggets stat guru Dean Oliver with a pretty insightful look at the statistical differences between the Nuggets pre- and post-trade. Excerpt: Denver coach George Karl got his "play hard" team, and that’s what the Nuggets did right away: play hard. Since the deal, Denver’s defense has been just a hair behind the Bulls for best in the entire NBA, allowing better than 10 points per 100 possessions fewer than they did before the deal. On the offensive side of the ball, the emotional impact is also clear, as the team is sharing the ball very well. Most of the players are using between 17 percent and 22 percent of the team’s possessions, a far cry from when Melo was using 31 percent. Assisted baskets are up to 63 percent, from only 54 percent prior to the deal. The team is feeling good and running more, with 15 percent of its possessions in transition, well up from the 11 percent prior to the trade. Point guard Ty Lawson, who even before the deal played better as a starter, is now the official starter and has been playing like Chris Paul, generating more than 120 points per 100 possessions, putting up an effective field goal percentage of 54 percent and simultaneously increasing his assists and cutting his turnovers, improving his pure point rating (PPR) from about 4 to more than 9.

Pelton: LaMarcus Aldridge Is Not An All-Star

Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus writes... ------------------------ "There are a couple of different ways you can look at the difference (between LA's stats in the first 25 games vs. the last 23). One is that, for the last month and a half, Aldridge has been one of the NBA's top players--regularly outplaying other contenders like Griffin and Love. The other perspective is that Aldridge was not anywhere near an All-Star for a month and a half to start the season, and those games count too. As part of the "LA to LA" campaign, Blazers fans have agreed to ignore the fact that Aldridge's middling play hurt the team during its below-.500 start. The upside is this: If Aldridge continues to play at this level, next year there will be no debate about his All-Star credentials." ------------------------ Ed: bumped to front page

the best bier in teh world junk 12.8

I am enjoying a Hoegaarden, which leads me to the question: what is the world's greatest beer.  A great beer should have three characteristics: flavor, finish and arrogance.  The first two are...


jd 11.30: pitchfork reviews the blazers

Marcus Camby (7.4) For a player with such an illustrious pedigree and fine NBA resume, Marcus remains remarkably underappreciated outside those fans who have followed his teams before he was...


11.17 canonical junk

So I'll probably be gone before there's any activity in this Junk, but here goes anyway.  Today's junk is about canons--things whose merits are so sacred, you compare stuff to it rather than...


11.10 nsfbe junk

So I was gonna make this junk about pop gossip to counterbalance amlmart's disturbingly highbrow topic, but trawling Gawker for material led me to this snippet which demands its own JD: The P...


Andre Miller and his peers: a comparison with fun graphs

From the day Andre Miller was signed from Philadelphia, a great deal has been made of his well-known inability to score from anywhere outside the block-charge semi circle.  Additionally, Miller is...


A player groups approach to the rotation

Most coverage of the rotation rightfully focuses on who's in and who's out, who starts and who sits, who plays more and who plays less.  That's the correct first area of emphasis: a team gives...


jd 8.25 afternoon: van gundy's junk

Inspired by AK, I have decided to make this junk all about Jeff van Gundy.  Here are some of his greatest hits. Singing Jamie Foxx:


lucky number junk 7/7

I've decided that for-profit educational institutions are a load of garbage.  I'm studying for the bar, and when I go to class (which is not often, I usually just watch online) if you don't get...

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