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David Thorpe on Nuggs Lakers game 7 reffing
"If you're not gonna call it, game 7 Nuggets/Lakers, clear advantage doesn't go to the home team, it goes to the stronger team. And this is NBA basketball, why are we deciding the stronger, tougher team that way wins? It's supposed to be a game of skill and athleticism too, so in order to find out who the best team is, we have a rule book. Let's just call it as we see it based on the rule book instead of making up some other game, which is the stronger team has the advantage in game 7."
Tanking and Fan Support
Last year, the 29th and 30th teams in attendance both went to the playoffs! What hasn't been mentioned is a Franchise stuck in the lower half of the playoffs (4~8 seeds) is just as likely to erode their fan support as a team that's tanking for draft picks. If the Playoffs started today, 5 teams would be in the bottom half in overall attendance (Philly, Atlanta, Memphis, Denver & Indiana). And two of those franchises won a playoff series last year!
Sebastian Pruiti: Kenneth Faried is already an excellent post defender
Don't worry about the ranking, check this awesome description:
Kenneth Faried has proven his reputation as a tremendous effort guy. He plays very impressive defense in the post, holding players to a PPP of 0.5888, which places him among the top 10 percent of all defenders. He uses his size (he's 6-foot-8) and strength to his advantage, and he does it without fouling. Faried has committed fouls in post-up situations just 5.9 percent of the time, a very low number for a rookie defender as aggressive and strong as Faried. This combination of strength and finesse is something you don't often see in bigs, especially rookies. He has the potential to turn into one of the best post defenders in the NBA.
Daryl Morey Talks Player Development
"We actually don't know who's going to pan out. We do know how to shift our odds and bring in a lot of high potential prospects, and we bring them in continually Sometimes they pan out (Chandler Parsons) and sometimes they hit bumps in the road, like we brought in Terrance Williams."
...
"We don't know which of them are going to pan out, and we are going to waive some of them. But the answer is not to bring in castoffs from the Knicks... guys without upside. And it does put a lot of pressure on our coaching staff. Which is why, McHale, I'm so excited about the job he's done and working with him because I always tell him we're adding a degree of difficulty, if you have the end of the bench with a bunch of guys who know their roles it's going to be easier for the coach
"But if you're trying to turn that corner into a Championship contender you gotta bring in young guys, and they're all gonna want to play, and it's going to put a lot of pressure on the coach. They're not going to know how to play defense right away and it adds a whole degree of difficulty to coaching that I don't think people appreciate."
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Get kids and play kids!
3 months ago
atomiccafe
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Coon: Breakdown Of NBA's New CBA & The Greg Oden Rule
Larry Coon, ESPN.com's salary cap expert, has a great (tentative) Collective Bargaining Agreement breakdown which includes reference to a so-called "Greg Oden Rule."
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2011 CBA: Players can qualify for a better qualifying offer by meeting certain criteria. High-drafted players might receive a lower qualifying offer by failing to meet the same criteria.
Who benefits? The higher qualifying offers help ensure that lower-drafted players who become starters or regular rotation players receive a salary that is in line with their performance. Conversely, the lower qualifying offer for underperforming high draft picks helps protect teams. For instance, rather than submitting an $8.8 million offer to retain the rights to Greg Oden, Portland would be able to offer much less. In fact, I fully expect this to be nicknamed the "Greg Oden Rule."
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ed: text edited, bumped to front page
New Season Trade Drawer!
by atomiccafe on Nov 28, 2011 11:22 AM EST
on Blazer's Edge
Can't believe there isn't one of these already! Let's get cracking. Obviously the new trade rules may make it somewhat easier to make trades, but I don't expect it to be significantly different.
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The Stupid Moral Panic over Mocking Tim Tebow
I thought this was a thought-provoking article about why the media coverage of Tim's religion is so shallow.
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I'll go a step further and say that, in so doing, Tebow knows full well that he is opening himself up to satire, because that is also a part of the deal evangelicals make when they dedicate themselves to converting a skeptical public. That's why, when Clay Travis famously asked in a press conference if Tebow was a virgin and caused so many sportswriters to flutter their lace hankies, Tebow simply smiled and answered the question. He wants people to ask that question. He wants every opportunity to talk about his beliefs in public, and he is smart enough to know that he will often rile folks in the process. Bruce Arthur and Jemele Hill and the Very Serious Media People are throwing a sneeze-guard around Tebow's religion that Tebow never would've asked for in the first place.
Why you should not gamble on pro football
College basketball expert Ken Pomeroy with an interesting little study about how hard it is to consistently pick against the spread.
7 months ago
atomiccafe
0 comments
1 recs
Broncos stat canvass and Packers preview: yuck
by atomiccafe on Sep 28, 2011 12:26 PM EDT
on Mile High Report
Gloiven, my calculator says that game really, really, really sucked. Anyway, the computers dropped the Broncos from 20th to the range of 25 or so. The offense was again the culprit, and appears to be in free-fall, though the Titans have had an excellent defense this year. The defense did improve by almost all metrics, and now even rates above average by some. Follow me below the fold.
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Which QBs hold the ball?
Football Outsiders takes a look at which quarterbacks were most likely to take a sack after holding the ball for three or more seconds on a dropback. Orton is slightly below average, while Peyton is #1 with a bullet.
Denver Broncos stat pulse and Titans preview
by atomiccafe on Sep 21, 2011 1:58 PM EDT
on Mile High Report
I've posted a few stat-oriented blog posts here that have initiated decent discussion, and since it doesn't seem like there is a really regular geek presence on the sidebar, I thought I'd do a little roundup of how the computers see the Broncos and their next opponent. If I get a decent response, maybe I'll do it regularly, so please comment if you like it. This shouldn't be seen as the be all and end all of anything, just a different little bit of a different perspective. This week, the Broncos seem to rate around 20th in the NFL. Their opponents, despite being 1-1, rate in the top 10 by many measures on the back of their impressive victory over the Ravens.
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Rushing stats for the Carolina Panthers during the Fox era. Anybody care to explain John Fox's reputation as some sort of running guru? It looks like his teams are like the rest of the league: they do well when they throw well. Except he just likes to run a lot even when it's not working.
WPA is neat, but please be responsible (UPDATED X2)
by atomiccafe on Sep 19, 2011 5:53 PM EDT
on Mile High Report
As you may have been able to tell in my few comments here, I am a bit of a stat geek. I like to look at numbers and use them to evaluate team and individual performance. I am also a big fan of Win Probability Added (WPA) and Estimated Points Added (EPA) style analysis. However, I see these kinds of stats thrown around a lot, and used in ways that they shouldn't be. So here's a quick summary of WPA and EPA's strengths and weaknesses.
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Pessimism: why I expect Raymond Felton to regress this year.
by atomiccafe on Sep 16, 2011 3:16 PM EDT
on Blazer's Edge
No real purpose for the timing of this post except that I was reading Basketball on Paper and it got me thinking about the shot clock. The shot clock makes shot creation a crucial commodity in basketball. You lose your possession after 24 seconds whether you shoot or not. That leads some to shoot a shot they have little chance of making. If he misses that shot, he is then charged for a missed shot, even though the responsibility for the lost possession is not his alone.
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Is clutch a skill and does Orton have it?: a simple experiment.
by atomiccafe on Sep 14, 2011 1:50 PM EDT
on Mile High Report
ThThere are a good number of reasons that Kyle Orton isn't really a Super Bowl quarterback. His accuracy is somewhat inconsistent, his mobility and pocket awareness range from mediocre to atrocious, he locks in on Brandon Lloyd, and his arm-strength is fairly average. One reason that I hear the most around these parts has nothing to do with any of these shortcomings. Basically, it's the accusation that Orton plays crappy at important times when the game is in the balance. This is apparently some kind of habitual shortcoming related to either his specific skills or his weakness as a person. Despite pretty terrible clutch play last season and on Monday night, this assertion isn't backed up by the evidence. Specifically, there is really no such skill as "clutch." Players that are better are better when the game is on the line. A quarterback's ability to outperform his normal production level during high-leverage situations is just statistical noise.
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Fox's management of 2nd and long: something to watch for in the regular season
by atomiccafe on Aug 28, 2011 2:58 PM EDT
on Mile High Report
Let's start with the caveats: the preseason is not the regular season and it is dumb to jump to any conclusions. Fox wants basically a perfect run-pass balance (achieved last night 34-34) which probably won't hold out in the regular season. The play book and game strategy are probably intentionally vanilla.
NOW with that out of the way, one of the biggest issues for the Broncos last night was clearly third down conversions. Five of fourteen is 36%, which would have been around 20th in the league last year. That's not awful, but on a night where the team average 8.9 yards per pass attempt and 4.4 yards per rush, it's definitely a weak link.
Although the play by play doesn't support causation (the third down failures were caused by negative plays (2), drops (1), and crappy short yardage line play (1)), these third down difficulties highlighted another issue I saw last night: sub-optimal play calling on second down and long. Fox runs too much on second down. This problem is aggravated because teams generally expect a running play after an incompletion. Let's have a look at the preseason play calls (below the jump):
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Why the NBA's suck-draft-contend cycle is a problem (with POLL!)
by atomiccafe on Jul 9, 2011 12:12 AM EDT
on Blazer's Edge
There are about three ways to build a contending team: be in a market with prestige and cash (Los Angeles and Miami), pull in a group of either unheralded or unhappy veterans (Detroit, 2004, Boston) and using what I will call for the purposes of this post the "suck-draft-contend" method. Obviously all Trail Blazers fans are familiar with it, as Kevin Pritchard attempted to implement this method by firesaling all the Blazers' expensive players, drafting promising young ones, and contending that way. There is a strange belief that this is the only "right" way to build a team: Royce Young called it the "sound and socially blessed way to structure a team."
It is my contention that he "suck-draft-contend" cycle is detrimental to the competitive balance of the NBA. I will begin with an explanation of the "suck-draft-contend" cycle, look at the aspects of the old CBA that made this method viable, and explain why I believe it is detrimental to the competitive balance of the NBA, namely: (1) because it emphasizes the least skill-oriented aspects of roster management (2) forces almost all the crucial roster construction moves to be made within too limited a window, (3) causes inefficient allocation of player skills (4) and forces teams into irrelevance for too long. Finally, I'll make some suggestions about how these issues might be cured in the new CBA. (if you want to cut to the meat, you may be able to skip parts I and II and still get the gist, though I think they provide necessary background and foundation).
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Shot creation: one reason we'll miss Andre Miller
by atomiccafe on Jun 27, 2011 2:53 PM EDT
on Blazer's Edge
Conventional analysis of the Andre Miller/Raymond Felton trade seems to boil down to the general notion that the Trail Blazers received a better fitting player who's slightly worse, but also much younger. This is due to Miller's non-existent three point shooting, along with the Blazers' dire need in that area. However, a closer look at the numbers reveals that Felton falls short in two crucial areas of need for the Blazers where Miller excels: getting to the line and getting his own shot efficiently.
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Collusion: Webster's definition
a secret understanding between two or more persons to gain something illegally, to defraud another of his or her rights, or to appear as adversaries though in agreement: collusion of husband and wife to obtain a divorce.
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For some reason people keep using the term "collusion" to apply to the Miami Heat. That is incorrect. Collusion involves cooperation while maintaining the continued impression of competition in the marketplace, litigation or other arena.
Dean Oliver on the new Nuggets
Ex-Nuggets stat guru Dean Oliver with a pretty insightful look at the statistical differences between the Nuggets pre- and post-trade.
Excerpt:
Denver coach George Karl got his "play hard" team, and that’s what the Nuggets did right away: play hard. Since the deal, Denver’s defense has been just a hair behind the Bulls for best in the entire NBA, allowing better than 10 points per 100 possessions fewer than they did before the deal.
On the offensive side of the ball, the emotional impact is also clear, as the team is sharing the ball very well. Most of the players are using between 17 percent and 22 percent of the team’s possessions, a far cry from when Melo was using 31 percent. Assisted baskets are up to 63 percent, from only 54 percent prior to the deal.
The team is feeling good and running more, with 15 percent of its possessions in transition, well up from the 11 percent prior to the trade. Point guard Ty Lawson, who even before the deal played better as a starter, is now the official starter and has been playing like Chris Paul, generating more than 120 points per 100 possessions, putting up an effective field goal percentage of 54 percent and simultaneously increasing his assists and cutting his turnovers, improving his pure point rating (PPR) from about 4 to more than 9.
Pelton: LaMarcus Aldridge Is Not An All-Star
Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus writes...
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"There are a couple of different ways you can look at the difference (between LA's stats in the first 25 games vs. the last 23). One is that, for the last month and a half, Aldridge has been one of the NBA's top players--regularly outplaying other contenders like Griffin and Love. The other perspective is that Aldridge was not anywhere near an All-Star for a month and a half to start the season, and those games count too. As part of the "LA to LA" campaign, Blazers fans have agreed to ignore the fact that Aldridge's middling play hurt the team during its below-.500 start. The upside is this: If Aldridge continues to play at this level, next year there will be no debate about his All-Star credentials."
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Ed: bumped to front page
the best bier in teh world junk 12.8
by atomiccafe on Dec 8, 2010 2:58 AM EST
on Blazer's Edge
I am enjoying a Hoegaarden, which leads me to the question: what is the world's greatest beer. A great beer should have three characteristics: flavor, finish and arrogance. The first two are self-explanatory. A beer must be arrogant, because a crucial aspect of liquid refreshment is conveying an image of superiority. Without further ado, my top five after the jump.
jd 11.30: pitchfork reviews the blazers
by atomiccafe on Nov 30, 2010 12:36 PM EST
on Blazer's Edge
Marcus Camby (7.4)
For a player with such an illustrious pedigree and fine NBA resume, Marcus remains remarkably underappreciated outside those fans who have followed his teams before he was unceremoniously dumped for some odd reason or another. The second overall pick, former defensive player of the year, and perennially one of the best three rebounders in the league, his departure at the hands of some ungrateful and philistinian front office at the trade deadline has nonetheless been an annual event.
11.17 canonical junk
by atomiccafe on Nov 17, 2010 10:34 AM EST
on Blazer's Edge
So I'll probably be gone before there's any activity in this Junk, but here goes anyway. Today's junk is about canons--things whose merits are so sacred, you compare stuff to it rather than question its greatness.
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11.10 nsfbe junk
by atomiccafe on Nov 10, 2010 9:35 AM EST
on Blazer's Edge
So I was gonna make this junk about pop gossip to counterbalance amlmart's disturbingly highbrow topic, but trawling Gawker for material led me to this snippet which demands its own JD:
The Parents Television Council—the conservative busybodies who like to complain about all the good stuff on TV—has done a study of television curse words. Finally, we can know for sure which are the most popular swears!
The PTC, which is concerned about the use of naughty language on TV in the wake of a federal court ruling that the FCC has no authority to maintain an "indecency policy," watched the first two weeks of the fall television season on the five major networks and tallied up the curses they heard. What a weird way to spend your time! But so valuable for our ongoing quest to figure out what swears are popular.
The full data set is here, and obviously has naughty words in it, so shield your eyes. I was interested to see that they think "piss" is a swear word. Squeamish people are funny.
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Andre Miller and his peers: a comparison with fun graphs
by atomiccafe on Oct 14, 2010 1:48 PM EDT
on Blazer's Edge
From the day Andre Miller was signed from Philadelphia, a great deal has been made of his well-known inability to score from anywhere outside the block-charge semi circle. Additionally, Miller is a much higher usage player than his predecessor. These two concerns have led many BEdge denizens to ask whether this skill set can complement a ball-dominant shooting guard like Brandon Roy, concerns Roy himself appeared to recognize through his comments in Ben's practice report yesterday. In this post, I compare Miller to his peers: secondary perimeter options on 50 win NBA teams, in terms of shooting ability, usage, efficiency and Player Efficiency Rating. I conclude that although Miller is a below average shooter for his role, being a low-quality shooter does not preclude players from succeeding in this role. However, most of the successful number two perimeter options have comparable usage rates to Miller (with two exceptions which I explain below). As such, the idea that Miller's ball-dominance and inability to shoot make him a poor fit next to Roy appear unfounded.
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A player groups approach to the rotation
by atomiccafe on Sep 8, 2010 12:18 PM EDT
on Blazer's Edge
Most coverage of the rotation rightfully focuses on who's in and who's out, who starts and who sits, who plays more and who plays less. That's the correct first area of emphasis: a team gives itself the best chance to win a basketball game by having its best players out there as much as possible. However, there's also an important "fit" component. Each five-man unit should be designed to bring out the best in each other. This fanpost is an attempt at making such a rotation. I've followed the following rules in attempting to build a feasible rotation:
(1) All players we currently have under contract are considered for playing time (yes, that means Rudy).
(2) RAMBO should start, because those five are our best players at each position.
(3) Starters get 32-38 minutes, except Oden, who gets 25 until he shows he can stay on the court.
So beyond the starters, which blends of bench players and starters can mesh together and ensure the Trail Blazers are a great team from the opening tip to the final horn.
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jd 8.25 afternoon: van gundy's junk
by atomiccafe on Aug 25, 2010 2:46 PM EDT
on Blazer's Edge
Inspired by AK, I have decided to make this junk all about Jeff van Gundy. Here are some of his greatest hits.
Singing Jamie Foxx:
lucky number junk 7/7
by atomiccafe on Jul 7, 2010 12:53 PM EDT
on Blazer's Edge
I've decided that for-profit educational institutions are a load of garbage. I'm studying for the bar, and when I go to class (which is not often, I usually just watch online) if you don't get into the single room with the live lecturer it's just a screen talking to you. That, and the whole thing consists of outlines with blanks where you just fill in the blanks with the stuff the lecturer says. And this is over 2k for less than two months of class.
Anyway, the rival prep class is worse--they got busted for hiring students to take pictures of the actual questions on their cell phones so they could use them in their practice exams. Lazy junk, but I'm a lazy person and I gotta get better at contracts.
final junk 522
by atomiccafe on May 22, 2010 11:58 AM EDT
on Blazer's Edge
Today (or 11:45 AM PST) is the biggest soccer game of the club season: the Champions League final, featuring the champions of Italy, Internazionale Milan against the champions of Germany, Bayern Munich. As the second biggest stage in the world's biggest sport, it's always featured some magic moments.
Kaka' brilliant pass to Crespo vs. Liverpool 2005:
Milan 3-0 Liverpool. Crespo scored second goal.avi (via tataron777)
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