SB Nation User Blog: atthehive

Looking at Steve Nash (oh, and Chris Paul Obviously)

atthehive — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:12:41 -0000

With New Orleans taking on a red hot Phoenix tomorrow, I guess this is timely.

One of the early trends of the season has been the revival of Steve Nash. The Suns completed one of the more impressive Eastern swings recently, with wins over Philadelphia, Miami, and Boston easily offsetting a loss at Orlando. And Nash, for sure, has been very solid. A lot more solid than some may have expected. Consider, for example, some of his trends the last three years:

Season	PER	TS%	eFG%	AST%	ORtg
2007	23.8	65.4	61.3	50.1	124
2008	21.1	64.1	59.7	47.3	121
2009	19.5	61.5	56.6	42.4	119
2010	22.8	65.8	61.1	56.5	123

Considering the trends from 2007-2009 (universally downwards in PER, TS%, eFG%, AST%, and ORtg), Nash has had a very impressive start to 2010. Couple that with team wins, a statistic that people very often use to overrate individual players, and Nash's value seems to inherently increase. But is Nash's pace- which, by the way, is just a shade shy of his "MVP" years, a.k.a. Chris Paul's rookie and sophomore years- sustainable?

My initial inclination is no. The primary driver of Nash's overall efficiency is his assist rate right now. He leads the league, right ahead of Paul, in assists per possession. A huge reason for this is that his team is shooting outlandishly from the field right now. Jason Richardson, a career 37% three point shooter, is shooting 58% on nearly 40 attempts. Grant Hill and Goran Dragic have put down 50% of their attempts. Channing Frye, who had made 20 threes in 4 years prior to this, has made 22 in 8 games. And even Jared Dudley has nearly attempted 30 threes. The Suns are shooting over 47% as a team from three. As a team, their eFG% of 57% is far and away the best in the league, and is totally unsustainable. Last year's leaders- also the Suns, unsurprisingly- shot 54.5 eFG%, a significantly lower figure. Last year's three point leaders- the Kings, surprisingly- were far and away the NBA's best at 40.6%.

The Suns will cool down, and it will affect Nash's assist numbers. So his overall efficiencies will go down. However, there may be a good case that he will sustain his own shooting figures. Last year's lower numbers (Nash's "lows" obviously being highs for anyone else) may very well have been anomalous.

Of course, I need to talk about Chris Paul at this juncture.

These numbers have earned Nash early MVP and All-Star starter buzz and Paul... nothing:

Player	PER	TS%	eFG%	Reb%	AST%	TOV%	USG	ORtg
Nash	22.8	65.8	61.1	4.8	56.5	25.0	23.4	123
Paul	36.0	74.0	69.3	6.2	54.5	11.3	26.8	145

Are Paul's shooting rates as unsustainable as Nash's assist rates? Oh, absolutely, probably more so. But over the first two weeks of the season, they're not even playing the same game! By Win Shares, Paul has been twice as valuable as Nash!

Lately, I've been hearing a lot of commentators say "you know, I'd just put Chris Paul a hair above Deron Williams. Just the slightest of tiny edges on Steve Nash." We've finally seemed to reached the point where Paul is acknowledged to be better than his competition by most people, but most are reluctant to state it firmly. Tomorrow, we'll see the announcers talk about how this is a matchup of the league's two best point guards. That's probably true... but it's also a matchup of the league's second best lead guard and league's best player.

Lakers, Clippers: A Tale of One City

atthehive — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 03:05:40 -0000

A 28 points win a night after a 16 point loss. It was a pretty interesting Staples double dip for New Orleans, and we learned quite a few things. In no particular order, a double recap:

Emeka Okafor

It's tough to say he was bad. But he definitely wasn't good. Versus the Lakers, he put up a stat line of 10 pts (5-12), 14 rebounds, and a blocked shot. Versus the Clippers, he went for 2 points (1-2) and 6 rebounds. He played 26 and 25 minutes respectively on Monday and Tuesday. I'd argue that the Lakers' game was the poorer showing. Against the LAC, the Hornets' offense didn't really require him. As a result, Byron Scott drew up very few plays for him, certainly a wise move with the perimeter showing.

But against the Lakers, we finally saw some of the bad side of Emeka, some of the things that Charlotte fans have been complaining about for years. He had a couple cases of brick hands and missed at least four wide open layups. If this is going to be the season that he puts it all together- in the ilk of his first 6 games- then he'll need to have a short memory and forget this one fast. Not the best Los Angeles trip for the big guy- a poor showing one night, and then denied a chance to redeem himself the next.

JuJu, the Starter?

As much as we've bashed Byron over the last year, he has given Julian Wright a very fair shake this season. He's started him, he's drawn up plays for him, he's even defended him in the media after horrible games. For a long while, I hid behind the "Byron killed Julian's career by not playing him properly as a rookie/sophomore" argument. Now? I renounce it. Julian Wright is simply not very good at basketball right now.

He's struggled defensively, missing easy rotations. More annoyingly, he's just as tentative with his dribble now as he was his rookie season. Simply put, JuJu has not grown much over the last 2+ years. And the blame has gradually shifted from Byron Scott to Julian himself. It's absolutely the right call to bring him off the bench; nothing he's done warrants a starting role.

Peja, the Starter?

Stojakovic is showing that he's still got it. Of course, that was never really the question. The real issue was if Peja could sustain his health and shooting over the course of a full season, and that question won't be answered until, well, a full season is up. I don't see Peja as the long term answer at SF for that reason. I think we can really save him and his minutes off the bench. At this point though, who else can we plug in at SF? Posey? Songaila?

We're going to see some interesting lineup combos over the next few games. When the dust settles, I wouldn't argue if this was the final setup: Paul/Thornton/Posey/West/Okafor with Collison/Brown/Peja/Songaila/Hilton doing the bench work.

Rookies!

Neither Darren Dimes Collison nor Marcus Buckets Thornton played particularly well against the Clippers. What matters is they finally got off the bench, and they provided exactly the energy we all thought they would.

Thornton clearly has a sweet stroke. I'm impressed at how quickly he can release it, and how consistent it looks over defenders. He's clearly not gun shy either. I would like to see Byron commit regular minutes to him, and more importantly, draw up cutting plays for him. Thornton has the skill set to allow cuts of different sizes; he doesn't need to get all the way to the hoop since he can stop in the midrange area and pull up. At the beginning of the season, I felt a lot of the Jason Terry comparisons were cliche'd and obvious. The more I see Thornton, the way he moves, and the quick release on his shot, the more I like the comparison a lot. Of course, if Thornton plays even half as well as Terry- one of my favorite guys in the league- this year, it'll be well worth it.

As for Collison? He gets into the paint at will, that's for sure. As nifty as a couple of his up and under moves were, I foresee close range finishing as his biggest issue of the near future. In that vein, his scoring development should be similar to Chris Paul's. In the two games, Collison also showed great on the ball defense (well except against Baron Davis, which is excusable). If Collison can evolve into the full court press man that Jannero Pargo was, the Hornets' defense will be that much better. For now, he clearly has defensive fundamentals down pat, and far better than the majority of rookies. He moves laterally extremely well, and it's refreshing to see.

The Defense

Well, there's plenty of work to be done here. New Orleans has attempted a hybrid zone/man at various junctures, especially prominent in this LA back-to-back. In my mind, it's not a good idea. Zone is a very difficult defense to play, even with very good personnel and coaching. Can the Hornets pull it off? I wouldn't put it past them, but it would be tough to use it consistently.

Thus far, the rotations have been very poor all around. With the red hot Phoenix Suns on tap, we're going to need to figure out something, fast.

Ike Diogu and Sean Marks

This one perplexes me. In the very negative news department, it appears Diogu will be out at least a couple more weeks, with Rotoworld claiming his season could be in jeopardy. As a huge Diogu proponent over the offseason, that would be devestating news for me.

As for Sean Marks? He's apparently had a "sore neck" for approximately the last month. So either something is up and the team simply likes Hilton Armstrong over him or his neck is in very poor condition. Armstrong did have a strong showing against the Clippers, so I'd expect Marks' neck to be "sore" for at least a couple more games.

The Pick and Roll

I'm probably going to devote an entire post to this at some point, but for now, it's clear out dependence on the pick and roll has diminished drastically. Some see this as a negative, pointing out how many easy dunks we got with Chandler and Paul. I see it as a positive for sure. The 2008-2009 offense just became ridiculously over reliant on the P&R. It got to the point where our offense literally could not run anything else (the Christmas day Magic game was a prime example of this). This year, the pick and roll hasn't been run because Emeka isn't as good at it. But as a direct result, the offense has become far more varied. We saw maybe a dozen successful back cuts all of last year. In the LA series, I already saw a couple well executed ones by Bobby Brown, Devin Brown, and Peja.

The pick and roll will be something Paul and Emeka work on behind the scenes, I'm sure. The West/Paul pick and roll will still be run at similar levels. But while the P&R sorts itself out, the offense is becoming more diversified than it's been in years, and that's a very good thing in the long run.

Chris Paul

The man is simply brilliant. Leads the league in three point percentage, PER, true shooting percentage, eFG%, Win Shares, and is second in assist percentage. He absolutely toyed with Baron Davis last night; if Okafor and others had done a more competent job on Monday, he could have kept his team in the game a while longer. There's absolutely nothing Paul can't do right now- stretch the defense, pass, rebound, man defend, help defend, knock down fadeaways to beat the shot clock, drill threes... let everyone talk about Kobe and LeBron and Carmelo. We're watching the best player in the league on a nightly basis. Enjoy it.

So...

atthehive — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 06:34:47 -0000

Haha.

Game 8: Hornets @ Clippers

atthehive — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 02:54:45 -0000

Game 7: Hornets @ Lakers

atthehive — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 02:45:50 -0000

For His Next Trick, Byron To Start Devin Brown

atthehive — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 22:02:35 -0000

Yep. Yep yep yep.

I've made clear who I want starting at the 2, despite his struggles. Honestly though, I don't have anything against trying out a committee and seeing who performs. I'm just dubious when that committee includes Devin Brown.

A fifth starter who plays with Chris Paul, David West, and Emeka Okafor needs to be able to shoot and not take over offensive plays with those three guys on. Devin Brown does not fit this bill at all. He really has no range to speak of, as he shot 29% from three last season and 30% the year before. The unfortunate thing is Brown seems to think he's good at shooting- he attempted almost 100 last year after 146 the year before. Byron Scott, for whatever reason, has allowed him to indulge this fantasy. Moving him into the starting lineup into a role that has frequently been on the receiving end of kickouts for three does not, well, solve this issue. At all.

There is really just one positive to Brown's game, and that's his ability to get to the foul line on broken plays. On units that don't have much creativity, he can force himself to the hole and occasionally pick up some cheap points. Thing is, this skill set will not be needed with Paul/West/Okafor on the floor. In the slightest.

Baskeball Prospectus' defensive stats indicate that Brown is actually a pretty solid defender. That's the one area I could see this move sort of working. If he can do a good job over the next few games on some upcoming opponents, then who knows. Perhaps he wrests control of the job from Mo-Pete for good. He's already shown the inexplicable ability to completely avoid Byron's doghouse.

In sum, I see this failing pretty badly on offense, and maybe, maybe, yielding some defensive results. Either way, Byron has indicated that this is a "6 game tryout." Which means we can start the Marcus Thornton countdown- Thursday, November 19th vs. Phoenix.

12 more days, people.

NBA's "Race" to the "MVP"

atthehive — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 20:30:48 -0000

NBA's "Race" to the "MVP"

1. Melo 2. Pierce 3. Kobe 4. Wade 5. Howard 6. Nash 7. Joe Johnson 8. Ariza 9. Bosh 10. LeBron

HAHAHAHAHAH

Game 6: Hornets vs. Raptors

atthehive — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 00:59:22 -0000

Mo-Pete Hops in the Delorean

atthehive — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:51:01 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Browse more photos »

Morris Peterson has always been the definition of a fringe starter. There are reasons to sit him, but there are also some reasons to start him. And perhaps chief among those is the way he fits into most any offense. Nobody wants an invisible player on the court, but nobody wants the 5th man to stick out any either. For much of his career, Mo struck that balance well.

Five miserable performances into the 09-10 season, is his time in that role over?

A trip down memory lane may be in order to predict his future.

For starters, the precipitous decline in PER over the past 5 years is ominous.

2006: 15.3
2007: 13.2
2008: 11.2
2009: 10.7
2010: 7.2 (5 Games)

It's not entirely unexpected either; wings in the mold of Mo-Pete tend to fade and fade hard as they hit their 30's. Two of Mo's most comparable players are George McCloud and Jaren Jackson... which is never a good thing. But while PER can be useful for comparing high value players, it often needs additional corroboration in its measure low value players who exist in different playing systems.

For example, in Toronto, Peterson's scoring role was far more pronounced. He averaged more than 3 FTA/36. In the long run, this seems pretty mediocre. Given Mo was averaged just around 10 FGA/game, though, it speaks to his more creative role. Upon his arrival in New Orleans, Peterson was transformed exclusively into a spot shooter. As much as people associate "Princeton offense" with Byron Scott (and others on that New Jersey staff, like Eddie Jordan), Peterson's role was hardly one characterized by off the ball cuts to the hoop. It was him hanging out on the corners or the wing, hoping for the kickout. It's only natural that his overall value would diminish in this system.

But how does one explain away Mo's decline with the Hornets? Changing system is one thing, but as we're all familiar with, the Hornets run virtually the same offense they did when Mo arrived.

The answer lies hidden in his floor percentages. Oddly enough, even as Mo's three point ability has remained stable, he's become a very poor two point shooter.

Year	2P%	3P%
2007	52.3	35.9
2008	44.5	39.4
2009	40.8	38.8

Clearly, his skills are in decline. He can hit the standstill three, but he can't do much else at all. Then again, the Hornets need Peterson to literally do only two things: (1) make open threes and (2) perimeter defense.

Mo has looked awful to start the year because both those things, arguably, haven't been there. In terms of defense, images of Rodrigue Beaubois blowing by him on four consecutive possessions still lingers in my mind. But in a relative sense, who else do we have defensively? James Posey has lost a step on the perimeter; leaving him on small forwards and power forwards is easily our best bet moving forward. I'm more than willing to give Peterson some more time to evaluate his defense. The three point shooting? He's been poor; however, it's 5 games, and it certainly looks like statistically insignificant.

In the 9 years prior this season, Mo's three point percentage has never deviated outside of the 30-40% range. It hasn't come close to the low end since a poor third season in the league. Basketball Prospectus' projection system has him very similar to last year. Basically, it's too early to say that Mo has lost his three point shot; in fact, all signs point to the contrary. It's the one aspect of his game he's kept as he ages, and the one aspect he's likely to keep for a while longer.

The moral of the story: Morris Peterson may be done as an average basketball player, but in the role the Hornets have created for him, he still has value. The numbers say his shot will recover, without much doubt. His contract runs till 2011, and the two aspects of his game we utilize most- shooting and perimeter defending- will remain until then. Off the bench, the value of both those things plummets. He no longer has Chris Paul to create threes for him, and his perimeter defense is inherently less valuable if he guards the opposition's bench.

I'm all for Marcus Thornton getting minutes (as Byron has alluded to recently). From a relative value added sense though, I think it makes more sense to bring Thornton off the bench. From what we've seen of him at LSU, he doesn't need Chris Paul as much as Mo does. And Mo is the far safer defensive bet at this point. Essentially, Thornton can (potentially) do things off the bench that Mo cannot; on the flip side, Thornton's creative ability is diminished as the fifth starter.

Projecting Mo's future is tough; defending his recent play is even tougher. For all his struggles though, there still isn't a better fifth starter option on this roster.

George Shinn Has Prostate Cancer

atthehive — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:02:39 -0000

George Shinn Has Prostate Cancer

"NEW ORLEANS -- The owner of the New Orleans Hornets has announced that he has cancer.

George Shinn made the announcement in a news release Friday that he was recently diagnosed with prostate cancer. Shinn says he remains healthy and is optimistic that he will conquer the disease."

Best wishes to the Shinn family for a speedy recovery.