SB Nation User Blog: atthehive

Random Thoughts

atthehive — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:22:02 -0000

Re: the Pistons deal. Detroit suddenly adds a ton of firepower, getting two ~18 PER guys that can contribute on the court at the same time. The biggest issue seems to be where the pieces will fit together. I'm assuming Joe Dumars would like a lineup of Rodney Stuckey/Ben Gordon/Richard Hamilton to be on the floor together at points, but that'd be a tiny starting backcourt and wing. Villanueva can't match up with some of the more physical power forwards, and where does this put Tayshaun Prince? There's probably a good argument in here somewhere that Detroit isn't done moving pieces around.
Re: Paul Millsap. Am I the only one that thinks he'd be worth every penny of the 10 million he's asking? I know Utah would ideally minimize their spending on him, given their cap situation, but it seems like a lot of the argument is that Millsap is inherently not worth that much anyway. A 24 year old with his rebounding and scoring ability, with no injury history? Seems worth it to me. Another question would be: why can't a team way under the cap go and offer Millsap a huge contract- let's say 15-20 million- and force Utah to seriously consider not bringing him back? (I might be missing some RFA contract max here, but I can't recall any).
Jason Kidd will be 36 years old next March, his turnover rates have been uncontrollably high for the last four years, and he can only match up defensively against shooting guards (which he's decent at, but still). So why do the latest rumors have teams lining up to offer him 3 and 4 year contracts? He'd be 40 at the end of a 4 year deal. I can't see him starting for a good team, for more than another two seasons. I know so many people called Kidd overrated a couple years ago that he almost bordered on becoming underrated (a reverse David West)... but has the pendulum swung back the other way now? Depends on the dollars he's given, but it looks like a possibility.
Lots of athletes have been killing it on Twitter, but one that definitely hasn't is Amar'e. First, he uses Twitter as a free advertising service for his Amar'e Credit Card or whatever the hell it was. Then, when he finally starts Twittering properly, he sends out fake trade rumors. Sort of amusing the first time, lame the second.
Anyways, that's it for now. I'm going to be out of town till next Tuesday. The last time I was out of town for an extended time, we signed James Posey. So, uh, let's pray something like that doesn't happen again. If any news breaks, have at it in the FanPosts/FanShots, and I'm sure Lee and Junsier will take care of it in terms of coverage. I've scheduled a couple posts- one on Darren Collison and one on Marcus Thornton- to autopublish themselves on Saturday and Monday respectively. Later.

Clippers to trade Zach Randolph

atthehive — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:53:46 -0000

Clippers to trade Zach Randolph

This could have huge implications on our rumored sending of various large contracts (Daniels, Peja) for Marcus Camby. By extension, that could have an effect on whether we move Tyson Chandler to Phoenix. Ultimately, it has to lessen the chances at least a little bit.

Chris Paul on BDL Create-a-Caption

atthehive — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:20:42 -0000

Chris Paul on BDL Create-a-Caption

Though all the captions suck.

Trading Tyson Chandler

atthehive — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 01:59:59 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Will the arrival of James Posey force out Tyson Chandler?

Browse more photos »

The Tyson Chandler to Phoenix trade rumors that started on draft day are simply refusing to die out. I've been hearing vague things from non-Hornet sources, but a poster on HornetsReport (who also posted on draft day that the Hornets had serious interest in Collison) offers far more clarity.

"... [E]xpect these moves in the next 2-3 weeks.

1.) TC for Ben Wallace

Devin might be a part of the deal too although it is not a deal breaker either way but the Hornets have no use for him this year so they want to dump him in the trade. The only reason this trade hasnt gone through yet is because of Phoenix's holdup with the Amare trade. That is their #1 priority right now but both teams want to get the TC for Wallace trade done.

Last I heard... Hornets would love to do something between 3-5 million and he wants at least 8. So if this trade doesnt go down, that is the most likely reason."

I'd heard the same on the buyout hangup, but these concrete numbers are very interesting. It allows us to calculate the financial implications with a good degree of accuracy.

If you remember back to my post from a few days ago, I talked about the cap benefits of moving Antonio Daniels and Rasual Butler. The primary benefit I described was trading them for smaller salaries, via either trade exceptions or to teams under the salary cap. This Tyson Chandler proposal explores a new dimension of saving cap space- a new dimension that could render a Butler trade moot.

The trade would be Chandler straight up for Wallace. Trade Machine still hasn't put through the Shaq-Wallace deal, so I can't link to it. But the math is straight forward. Chandler makes 12,250,000 this year, meaning the incoming player can make a maximum of 15,312,500 (125%) this year. Wallace makes 14,000,000, so the deal works. The mechanism behind a buyout is simple. The Hornets would basically pay Wallace a portion of his 14M salary to sit at home (and retire, as he wants to). The buyout contract is the money that goes into the salary cap calculation.

So to calculate the money saved is equally simple. Take Chandler's salary and subtract the buyout deal the Hornets theoretically agree on. If the Hornets agreed to Wallace's supposedly desired 8 million figure, the Hornets would save 12.25 (Tyson) minus 8 (Wallace) for a total of 4.25 million. Yesterday, we came up with the calculation that the Hornets are going to be approximately 8.5 million dollars over the cap. The goal of any deal involving Chandler is that it should put us under the luxury tax in one fell swoop. Otherwise, it probably wouldn't be worth moving TC in such a sell low situation. So to save 8.5 million in a Wallace buyout, the Hornets would have to get Wallace to agree to a 12.25-8.5=3.75 million dollar buyout. This is exactly in line with the HornetsReport post that said the Hornets seek a buyout in the 3 to 5 million dollar range. The more money they save in a Wallace deal, the more they can spend on free agency.

Those are the financial ramifications, but how about the roster implications? By trading Chandler for Wallace, the Hornets would have two big men on the roster- David West and Hilton Armstrong. Two. They'd be right at the luxury limit, so George Shinn could be wary of using the full midlevel (likely what it will take) to acquire a Marcin Gortat. There would only be 12 players on the roster. Basically, they'd have 2 spots left (Scott doesn't like filling out the 15th player until late in the season). Both would have to be used on big men. The team would be a mess otherwise.

But the HornetsReport post also said that the Hornets still want Jannero Pargo. So a Chandler trade necessitates an Antonio Daniels trade, by default. The only way for the Hornets to clear a roster space to get Pargo is to trade Daniels for a big. That way, they'd use one of the two remaining spots on Pargo and the other on another big. Additionally, moving Daniels could provide salary relief in and of itself (trade exception, etc), if the Hornets choose to go in that direction.

I'll try and do a "Trading Antonio Daniels" post tomorrow, basically looking at where he could be dealt. For now, it's pretty clear that trading Chandler and trading Daniels go hand in hand.

The Shopping List

atthehive — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 23:14:57 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Ike Diogu is one of the 50 front court options NBA teams have this summer.

Browse more photos »

I took a look at our budget last post (1-2 million dollars to sign one player). Now, let's assess what people are going to cost.

I've tried to include every front court free agents (UFA and RFA) that I could find here, but if I missed any, let me know. Big thanks to this list from Depressed Fan and to ESPN player pages. Quick explanation of the table: Restricted refers to UFA/RFA status, competitors refers to projected number of teams that want the player, Salary projection is my estimation of the player's market value, and target refers to whether New Orleans can reasonably target the player (in parantheses is an explanation of why (expensive, etc)).

The full 50 player table after the jump.

Player	Restricted?	Last Salary	Competitors	Projection ($)	Target?
Rasheed Wallace	No	20.1M	3+	10-15	No ($)
Malik Rose	No	11.5M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Drew Gooden	No	3.0M	1-2	2-4	Yes ($)
Chris Wilcox	No	10.1M	1-2	2-5	Yes ($)
Stromile Swift	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Shawn Marion	No	20.1M	3+	12-18	No ($)
Ike Diogu	Yes	8.8M	0-1	2-4	Yes ($)
Lamar Odom	No	20.1M	3+	15-20	No ($)
Paul Millsap	Yes	1.6M	3+	unknown, but $$$	No ($)
Charlie Villanueva	Yes	10.3M	1-2	8-15	No ($)
Joe Smith	No	2.4M	1-2	2-4	Yes ($)
Shelden Williams	No	4.1M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Maceo Baston	No	4.5M	0-1	1-2	Yes
Cedric Simmons	No	2.7M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Marcin Gortat	Yes	0.83M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Chris Andersen	No	0.83M	2-3	2-4	Yes (DEN)
Channing Frye	Yes	9.5M	0-1	2-4	No ($, sucks)
Hakim Warrick	Yes	6.4M	1-2	4-8	Yes ($)
David Lee	Yes	6.1M	3+	unknown, but $$$	No ($)
Steve Novak	No	1.0M	0-1	min-3	Yes
Donyell Marshall	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Ryan Bowen	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Michael Ruffin	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Shavlik Randolph	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Leon Powe	Yes	0.83M	3+	Unknown, but $$	No ($)
Glen Davis	Yes	1.0M	2-3	3-7	Yes (BOS)
Raef LaFrentz	No	19.1M	0	Negative	No (sucks)
Rasho Nesterovic	No	12.6M	1-2	3-5	Yes ($)
Jason Collins	No	9.3M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Zaza Pachulia	No	8.0M	2-3	4-5	No ($)
Robert Swift	No	7.2M	0	Minimum	Yes
Aaron Gray	Yes	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes
Chris Mihm	No	5.0M	0-1	2-3	Yes
Saer Sene	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes
Jarron Collins	see Jason	4.1M	see Jason	see Jason	see Jason
DJ Mbenga	No	0.96M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Calvin Booth	No	2.7M	0	Minimum	No (sucks)
Melvin Ely	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (sucks)
Ryan Hollins	No	0.83M	0-1	1-2	Yes
Lorenzen Wright	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Adonal Foyle	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Jamaal Magloire	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Sean Marks	No	0.83M	0	Minimum	Yes (old)
Theo Ratliff	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (old)
Johan Petro	Yes	5.9M	0-1	2-3	Yes
Jake Voskuhl	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	No (sucks)
Marvin Williams	Yes	14.1M	3+	10-15	No ($)
James Singleton	No	0.83M	0-1	Minimum	Yes (DAL)
Walter Herrmann	No	4.0M	0-1	2-4	Yes

So out of the 50 UFA/RFA big men of 2009, the Hornets can put 30 of them on their radar.

As you can see, there are a ton of guys out there. Not all of these guys (or even half these guys, I suspect) are going to find homes next season. Yes, there is a good deal of variance, but the supply is definitely greater than the demand.

There are four tiers the 30 players can be split into.

"Uh Oh, Everybody's Gone And/Or (Probably And) We're Broke."

Among the 30 potential signees, we can probably classify some of them as last gasp options due to suckage, old age, or some combination of the two. Of all the players I gave a 'yes' in the far right column, here are the ones I'd categorize as last resorts:

Steve Novak: The Hornets have gaping holes in their frontcourt, but specifically they need to target rebounders. When David West and Tyson Chandler hit the bench, Byron Scott won't appreciate a big man that spends 99.999% of his time between three point arcs. Novak's rebound rate is barely half of Hilton Armstrong's. Yeah. Consider this the last last resort.
Donyell Marshall- DMarsh is another three point specialist, but he's been a stellar defensive rebounder throughout his career. The issues clearly are that he's 36 years old, and he's nearing retirement. Toss in a recent comment about how he'd want to come in and mentor guys if he joined a new team (nothing on actually playing), and you don't have a great combination.
Michael Ruffin- He's undersized but a fantastic rebounder on offense and defense. The question with him is playing time. He only got 11 games last year, 46 the year before, and 30 before that. Nobody knows how he'd hold up over 82, especially now that he's on the wrong side of 30.
Ryan Bowen- Great hustle, but I don't think I need to elaborate much here.
Shavlik Randolph- Randolph only got in 89 games in his first 4 years in the league. But he's shown some serious potential on the boards. The risk is that if we pin our one rebounding hope on the 25 year old and he blows up, well, we won't be in great shape.
Robert Swift- Showed lots of potential, once upon a time. He's the madly tattooed, infinitely riskier Shavlik Randolph.
Saer Sene- 47 games in three years. He'll be mad cheap, but he's 7'0" and weighs 220 pounds. You tell me how that's gonna end up.
Melvin Ely- Yeah.
Ryan Hollins- I rank Hollins somewhere between Last Resorts and the next category. He's a great shot blocker with good timing, and while he isn't the most impressive defensive boarder, his offensive figures are nice. He brings great energy to both sides of the floor. With Eric Dampier rumored to be on his way out of Dallas, I wonder how much the Mavs will spend to keep him. My feeling is they like him a good bit... and Hollins is only worth it if he comes cheap.
Lorenzen Wright- With age, his offensive boarding figures have slipped badly. And last year, not one, not two, but three teams (ATL, SAC, CLE) tossed him in the their respective trash cans. He brings size (6'11), if not bulk (225), and he has a career full of good defensive rebounding. One of the better Last Resort picks, though it wouldn't be a flashy signing at all.
Adonal Foyle- And if you thought Lorenzen was the antithesis of all things stylish, well, apparently, you've never seen this guy. Most famous for clanging an open 7 footer off the side of the backboard, Foyle's actually a decent option. The problem here is that he spent most of last year injured. Not sure the Hornets are willing to gamble on a 34 year old's health.
Sean Marks- I think Marks is a last resort, not because of his play necessarily, but because it wouldn't go over well with the fans. Most Hornets' supporters are looking for a front court overhaul. The truth is, Marks' 9/18/13.5 rebounding split from last year wasn't shabby at all. An understatedly decent last resort option
Theo Ratliff- Ratliff hasn't been discussed in a basketball context ever since he legally changed his name to The Expiring Contract of Theo Ratliff some time in 2004. Though the dude is older than my pet rock, he provided Philadelphia some boards and some blocks last year. Overall, he's way too old to be considered a good signing.
Johan Petro- I'd rank the Denver center higher (his rebounding numbers are terrific) but he seemingly never plays, and he is straight up horrible at basketball. A center with a 43% true shooting percentage? Unbelievably atrocious.
Stromile Swift- From 2000-2008, SS was a serviceable player. Great rebounder, good shot blocker, coudl even put the ball in the bucket unassisted, once a month. Suddenly everybody forgot about him, and he played nineteen of the most anonymous games in NBA history with NJN and PHO last season. One of those guys where if he goes to the Knicks, everyone will rag on them for getting another overpaid bust, and if he goes to the Spurs, everyone will praise them for getting another underpaid overachiever. If he goes to New Orleans? Who knows.
Walter Herrmann- Imagine Hilton Armstrong with range. (If you can actually do this, I have just one question: are you on drugs?)

"Yeah If We Got Him, Sweet... But We're Not Getting Him"

Glen Davis- Boston is going to keep him. Danny Ainge will re-sign him. Kevin Garnett will continue to make him cry. I don't see many ways around this. Plus, his rebounding is mediocre, his offensive abilities are vastly overrated on the strength of one or two jumpers he made in the playoffs, and he really isn't that great at anything else. So "If we got him, sweet" would probably not be an accurate description of Glen Davis, now that I think about it.
Joe Beast- aka Joe Smith to those unacquainted with his hip hop skills. Smith is kind of like Davis in that his team is probably going to keep him (I can't see Cleveland performing a single action that does not directly contribute towards the appeasement of the Great One). Smith is also kind of not like Davis in that he's actually good at basketball.
Antonio McDyess- Dice is likely out of the Pistons' price range this summer, though they have said they want to keep him. He made 6 million+ last year. I know there's always the chance he takes a pay cut to join a contender... but who really considers the Hornets a contender now any way?
Chris Andersen- The league leader in block rate will be getting some sort of financial upgrade, and probably one from Denver. If not, there will be plenty of teams just salivating at the thought of overpaying the 31 year old.
Hakim Warrick- Warrick is another guy in line for an upgrade on his 1.5 million a year salary. He's not the most efficient scorer, but I'd say he's the most underrated foul drawer in the entire league (6.6 FTA/36, which would be 0.3 more than Chris Paul, without the aid of superstar calls). He's a decent rebounder too. If Memphis doesn't realize what they have on their hands, plenty of others will do the realizing for them.
Marcin Gortat- If recent rumors are to be believed, the Magic are in hot pursuit of Rasheed Wallace and/or Brandon Bass. It sure sounds like they're gearing up to lose their backup power forward. The Gortat situation is a tricky one to read. On the one hand, he made under a million dollars last year. On the other hand, he had a great postseason and pretty much the entire NBA now knows about him. Positives: beastly rebounder, very efficient scorer, brings terrific energy. Downside: fouls a lot, but who really cares. But all this misses a crucial point- several teams have already reportedly discussed offering Gortat a large part of their midlevel exceptions (five million plus).

"Maybe They'll Forgive Us For Not Taking Blair Now"

Radoslav Nesterovic- aka Rasho to those unacquainted with Slovenian. Nesterovic is one of the few 30+ options I wouldn't mind. He has size (7'), bulk (250), and the career rebounding split (10/17/13) to warrant a serious look. The biggest issue would be salary. He made 7 million+ last year alone, and he hasn't earned below 2.5 mil since 2002-2003. If he agreed to take a pay cut with us, that'd be terrific.
Aaron Gray- It's universally agreed that Aaron Gray sucks, but he could help us out big time in the rebounding department. With a 14/22/18 split last year, he would bring rebounding figures that very few free agent bigs could match. He should be dirt cheap (making less than half a million last year on a second rounder contract). With a lot of teams looking at the flashier names, we're likely to receive less competition to sign him. And of course, the kicker is that he's a big from the University of Pittsburgh, something a lot of people seemed to want around these parts.
Shelden Williams- I've always loved Williams. Seemingly not in possession of a neck, he'd be the perfect complement to Hilton "The Ostrich" Armstrong. He posted super awesome terrific rebounding figures with ATL his rookie year before they moved him to Sacramento. He finished last year in Minnesota. He seems universally unwanted, but he'd be a tremendous bargain for the Hornets.
Maceo Baston- Baston's first salary was 20,000 with the Chicago Bulls in 1999. So I'm thinking he might be down to make a couple million with us next year. Last year with Toronto, he posted an 11/15/13 rebounding split in 27 games. He draws fouls at a decent rate and has a nice offensive game. He can also block a few shots here and there. The biggest problem is his size- 6'9" and 215 pounds; I don't know how long he can hold up.
Chris Mihm- Mihm has posted very, very nice rebounding numbers throughout his career. (a career 11/19/14 split). I thought we'd seen the last of him after his sparring session with D.J. Mbenga, but who knows. Could be an attractive option, given the lack of competition and low price.
Jamaal Magloire- 14/24/19 rebounding split last year. That's all you gotta know about the Big Cat. He will rebound the hell out of that ball.
James Singleton- Thanks to reader Scott for e-mailing to me about Singleton. Personally, this would be one of my favorite signings if it happened. Singleton, who broke into the League as a swingman, has seriously bulked up in recent years. He posted a 12/21/16 rebounding split with Dallas last year, terrific numbers for any player, let alone one making the minimum. He was also very efficient at putting the ball in the bucket (the most efficient out of any of the 30 on this list). Want more? He didn't turn the ball over, and Dallas put a fair bit of responsibility on him when he was in the game. And, oh yeah, he has three point range. Unfortunately, it appears we have compeition. Both my Dallas contacts confirmed that the Mavs have definite interest in bringing him back next season, and Singleton seems to like his situation there too. Don't know if it will happen, but Singleton would be an amazing, cheap add.

"The Heavens Have Smiled Upon Us"

Chris Wilcox- Wilcox parlayed a terrific contract year with the Clips into an overpaid two year stint with the SuperThunder. This summer, he's likely to return to his rightful tax bracket, and if so, the Hornets stand to benefit. At a career 9/20/14 rebounding split, Melvin Ely's twin would make Melvin himself a distant memory. Wilcox can also jump out the gym, so Chris Paul could still have an alley-oop partner when he's on the floor with the bench and Tyson's off. Wilcox's defense has been questioned repeatedly... but dude's trying to make the New Orleans Hornets' bench, not the All Defense team. I'd take him in a heartbeat, providing he agrees to slash his salary to the 2 million range.
Ike Diogu- Enter Mr. Diogu. I like Ike, and you should too. He never really got a chance with the GSW, or the IND, or the POR. Finally, he got some minutes with SAC last year, and they were predictably glorious. In the last two games, he dropped 32 on Denver, and 28 on Minnesota (oh, what's that you say about Denver resting its starters and Al Jefferson being injured? I can't really hear you, you're going to have to speak louder). He can rebound, and he draws fouls like a maniac. While he's kind of foul-prone, he doesn't turn the ball over. The kicker? His full name is Ikechukwa Somotochukwa Diogu. Pau Gasol is already recoiling in fear.
Drew Gooden- For a while there, it appeared Gooden's basketball ability had taken a back seat to him cultivating that ridiculous beard. But now all is well. Ever since he left the company of the Great Shining Internationally Renowned Supreme Basketball Talent, Gooden's been looking on the up and up. Rebounding last year? Try 10.4/22.6/16.6. 52.6% true shooting. 11.7% turnovers. 4.0 FTA/36 minutes. The one flaw is that he's lost all ability to put the ball in the bucket from the floor... but I can excuse that. Another downside: Signing the 27 year old Gooden would probably cement Jeff Bower's place as the Greatest GM in the History of Western Civilization.

So there you have it.

50 options -> 30 reasonable options -> 25 actually reasonable options -> 9 actually reasonable and good options -> 3 actually reasonable and very good options. Happy shopping.

The Budget

atthehive — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 20:24:38 -0000

So now what? The draft is done, but there are holes to be filled. I figure I'll split up free agency into a couple of posts- The Budget, and the Shopping List.

So what have we got left to spend?

Not a whole lot. Before starting, I need to mention that these analyses would not have been possible without the salary information of wyn at Canis Hoopus. Extraordinarily useful stuff. (And by the way, non-Hornets related, but this is an amazing read on the Ricky Rubio situation).

Here's how our current salary situation shakes out:

Player	Dollars (in millions)
Chris Paul	13.8
Peja Stojakovic	13.4
Tyson Chandler	12.3
David West	9.1
Antonio Daniels	6.6
James Posey	6.0
Morris Peterson	6.0
Rasual Butler	3.9
Hilton Armstrong	2.8
Julian Wright	2.0
Devin Brown	1.1
Darren Collison	1.1
Marcus Thornton	0.4
Free Agent #1	---
Free Agent #2	---
Hornets Total	78, 449, 353
Projected Salary Cap	57, 300, 000
Projected Luxury Tax	70, 000, 000

At first glance, this doesn't look great.* We're about 21 million over the projected cap and about 8 million over the projected luxury. While the cap figure has no relevance (we already knew we would be way over the cap no matter what), most project a 1 to 2 million dollar decrease from last year's 58.68 mil (wyn's projection has it at 57.3 as noted above).

*Two things to note: Collison's salary is derived from the 09-10 rookie salary scale, and I'm operating under the assumption that Thornton will be signed.

The luxury tax level is of absolute importance. The tax will be the most important determining factor behind who we obtain this summer. Last year, the tax was announced Wednesday, July 9th, or one week after free agency started. Expect a similar release date this year. I highly, highly, highly doubt George Shinn will allow a move to be made until the number is released. So while free agency begins on the first of July, don't be startled if the Hornets aren't linked with a single free agent for the first week.

But while Shinn and the Hornets will be waiting for the exact figure, expect it to be close to the projection (I'll post updates as wyn's projection changes).

So we're projected to be somewhere in the vicinity of 8.5 million dollars over the luxury. What does this mean? I'll try keep this as un-convoluted as possible.

Let's start with the facts:

George Shinn does not want to pay the luxury tax.
The luxury tax is calculated at the end of the 2009-2010 season. We have now till the trade deadline (Feb) to shed salary.
We have 2 valuable expiring contracts: Antonio Daniels (6.6 million) and Rasual Butler (3.945 million)
Thus, we can probably move ~10.6 million dollars, with ease, if we really, really needed to.
If we spend more money this summer, anticipating that we will move Butler, then we need to know that Marcus Thornton can be an adequate backup to MoPete at the 2.
We won't see Thornton play an NBA minute until November.

Starting to see the problem here? If we overspend this summer and Thornton ends up worse than we expected, we wouldn't be able to move Butler, and George Shinn's finances could take a hit. Thus, we technically do have a small budget to work with, but there is a good deal of risk associated.

As for the exact number: take the luxury tax- 70 mil, add the Butler and Daniel contracts- 10.6 mil, and you come up with 80.6 million. This is unequivocally the highest the Hornets want to be at. So subtract the current value- 78.5 million, and you come up with ~2 million dollars to spend this summer. This is, decidedly, not a whole lot of money.

But wait! If you look back at the roster above, you'll see we have 13 players, with just 2 spots left, cleverly named Free Agent #1 and Free Agent #2. The Hornets haven't entered a season carrying 15 players in the Byron Scott era. They're not going to start now. Basically, the roster says the same thing the finances do- the Hornets are only going to pick up one more player this summer.

Quickly, the depth chart:

Paul/Daniels/Brown/Collison
Butler/Peterson/Thornton
Stojakovic/Posey/Wright
West
Chandler/Armstrong

So there you have it. 2 million dollars. That's the budget, and that's the highest possible maximum. That would be the equivalent of putting me and and unlimited credit card in a Foot Locker. In reality, the Hornets will end up spending less than that.

One player, for less than 2 large.

I'll tell you one thing- it ain't gonna be Pargo.

Update: Good question from ticktock6 (in the comments) reminds me of a point I didn't address. Basically, it wouldn't make much sense for the Hornets to trade Butler/Daniels for other players of equal value. CBA rules dictate that if a team is over the cap, they can only make trades of up to 125%. Therefore, the Hornets can only look to trade Butler/Daniels to teams that are already below the cap (getting minimum deals in return) or to teams that have big trade exceptions. Trade exceptions essentially function as salaries. For example, Antonio Daniels (6.6 mil) for a 6 million dollar trade exception and a million dollar contract, etc. I'll try and publish a full list of trade exceptions for this season, but off the top of my head, Denver has a 9 million exception that expires some time in July and Miami has a 4 million exception that expires in 2010. Trading Butler/Daniels isn't as easy as I made it sound, but definitely still doable though.

Update 2: Also forgot to include that the Hornets would be getting back around 1 to 1.5 mil in contracts back for Butler/Daniels. I'm starting to think the luxury tax may very well be unavoidable for Shinn this year, even if minimizing it is quite possible. But if Shinn really wants those revenues, New Orleans only has one more trade chip on its roster.... uh oh.

I was saying that was out the window. I thought, ‘I won’t be in town, I’ll have to settle for out of...

atthehive — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 20:28:40 -0000

I was saying that was out the window. I thought, ‘I won’t be in town, I’ll have to settle for out of town.’ All of them just ran in and jumped on me and said, ‘You’re going to the Hornets.’ I said, ‘Y’all quit playing.’ -Marcus Thornton

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Collison

atthehive — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:43:06 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

With the 21st pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, the New Orleans Hornets select... Darren Collison from UCLA.

Browse more photos »

Lots of haterade being drunk in re: this Darren Collison fellow ("9th best PG", etc).

You know what? It was a great pick. This really isn't spin or anything. Last thing I'm going to do is spin the Hornets' front office after the disaster that was Summer 2008.

First, consider the options. It was down to DeJuan Blair or a point guard. Marcus Thornton wasn't in the equation at 21, because no other teams valued him that high. If the Hornets really wanted him that high, they'd have traded down and gotten a 2nd rounder tossed their way. Internally, the front office had made the Blair vs. point guard decision (which turned out to be the right call, as Thornton hung around till 43).

Let's start with Blair. I was super high on him. His rebound rates were mind-boggling, he'd dominated a 7 footer in Thabeet before, and he had apparently gotten into terrific shape. When the decision was made to pass him over, I was startled. Blair filled our biggest need, and some statistics indicated he might be the second best big in the entire draft. How could you possible pass on that? I was not a happy camper.

Then Portland- widely rumored to have traded up to get him- passed on him. Sacramento passed on him. Dallas passed on him. Oklahoma City passed on him. Chicago- widely rumored to be drafting Blair at 16- passed on him at 26. Even the staunchest advocate of Blair had to have recognized something here. And then ten more teams passed. Fifteen times in all, he was passed over. There's some identified or unidentified issue with Blair that teams are scared of. It might be his knees. It might be the fact that his ACL's ~~are supposedly not visible in MRIs~~ do not exist. It might that people don't think his sudden and huge weight loss is sustainable. It might be that he lived on a mostly junk food diet for most of his college career. Sure, the Spurs wound up taking him. They've been absolute geniuses at drafting. But this smells more of "he couldn't have dropped any lower" than it does of the Spurs knowing something nobody else does. The Hornets came to the same conclusion that more than half the NBA did. This includes teams that worked him out multiple times, with enough scrutiny to considering drafting him in the lottery. I trust in that collective wisdom.

Second, let me address the "8th or 9th best point guard" deal. Collison was absolutely not the 8th or 9th best point guard in this draft. He was the 8th or 9th most hyped point guard in this draft. Huge, huge difference. For two straight years, he'd lost his buzz to more famous backcourt mates at UCLA- Russell Westbrook and Jrue Holiday.

Comparison time.

Player A: 49% eFG, 27% threes, 31% FT/pos, 53% true shooting, 23% ast/pos, 21% TO/pos
Player B: 57% eFG, 40% threes, 29% FT/pos, 62% true shooting, 38% ast/pos, 20% TO/pos

Who ya got?

Player A is Tyreke Evans, the first point guard taken in The Draft of the Point Guard. Player B is Darren Collison, the last point guard of the first round taken in the Draft of the Point Guard.

How about the next non-Rubio (total wild card) point guard off the board?

Jonny Flynn: 52% eFG, 32% threes, 37% FT/pos, 57% true shooting, 41% Ast/pos, 21% TO/pos
D. Collison : 57% eFG, 40% threes, 29% FT/pos, 62% true shooting, 38% ast/pos, 20% TO/pos

Looks pretty even to me. Here are all the non-Euro points (Jennings, Rubio) taken in round 1:

Player	eFG	3P	FT/pos	TS	Ast/pos	TO/pos
Tyreke Evans	49%	27%	31%	53%	23%	21%
Jrue Holiday	50%	31%	20%	53%	42%	25%
Eric Maynor	52%	36%	37%	58%	32%	16%
Ty Lawson	61%	47%	47%	66%	51%	15%
Jeff Teague	55%	44%	43%	62%	22%	20%
Jonny Flynn	51%	32%	37%	57%	41%	21%
Darren Collison	57%	40%	29%	62%	38%	20%

Ty Lawson is clearly not human, but everyone else is more or less on even footing. There are non-statistical components to drafting. Absolutely there are. Collison is a college senior, a category of player that empirically does not do well in the NBA. Flynn, Evans, and especially Holiday are absolutely teeming with upside while Collison has almost no upside. But can anyone definitively say Collison is not a top 5 point in this draft, filled with so many excellent ones? Absolutely not.

Darren Collison was a very good point guard in college for four years. He may be more guaranteed to spell Chris Paul for 12-15 minutes than anyone else in this draft.

Two giant cherries on top of this cake. One, this guarantees Jannero Pargo will not be returning. The second is even more important. This allows New Orleans the freedom to trade Antonio Daniels at any point during the season. Not only that, it provides them with a great amount of leverage they wouldn't have had otherwise. Daniels' 6 million expiring contract is one of the Hornets' biggest trade chips. The drafting of Darren Collison will allow them to maximize its usage.

I love Collison already. So should you.

Draft Day Open Thread

atthehive — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 21:12:50 -0000

It sounds like something could be coming. I'll post updates in this story:

11:31 EST- Bright Side of the Sun: "The word from a few places that haven't yet risen to more prominent sources is that the Suns want to now trade Wallace's contract to the New Orleans Hornets for Tyson Chandler."

4:32 EST- Real GM: "While there is no truth to the possibility of Amare Stoudemire being moved to Houston in a package for Tracy McGrady, Ben Wallace could be flipped to New Orleans for Tyson Chandler.

Wallace is an expiring $14 million contract that could also provide the Suns more immediate financial relief with a buyout (although he would still count as a $14 million salary for luxury tax purposes). Chandler's contract goes into the 2010-11 season at about $13 million."

UPDATE: Merging this into the Open Draft Thread.

5:42 EST- ESPN: Not an update per se, but there's a lot of news that Ben Wallace will be retiring. His quote from May: "Nothing's definite, but there's a strong possibility that this was my last season." So if a deal does get done, a buyout will probably be performed immediately. Very raw figures here, but the Hornets would cut about 12 million in cap, bringing them to ~64 million total.

5:46 EST- Yahoo!: "Sources say that Louisville’s Terrence Williams is back in the mix with the Nets at No. 11. He’s on the short list with North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough and Duke’s Gerald Henderson." NJ was one of three majorly rumored destinations for DeJuan Blair. With Carter gone, it looks more and more like they'll gamble on Williams.

5:59 EST- Hoopsworld: "Nobody from the Eric Maynor camp is expecting him to be on board past the 20's. The Indiana Pacers are considering him at 13, but could also go with either Brandon Jennings or Ty Lawson. It's unexpected for Maynor to fall past 19 to the Atlanta Hawks, unless they opt for Jeff Teague instead."

6:01 EST- According to a person in the know, Chandler to Suns would probably only go down if the Suns' 14 overall pick were included. Phoenix doesn't appear likely to include that, given their recent history of trading away picks that turned into terrific players.

6:21 EST- Of course, right after I do a post about three new possibilities, Chad Ford brings up a new one. He has BJ Mullens slotted into the 21st spot in his latest mock. Quick thoughts on Mullens: awful passer, loses the ball a ton, mediocre rebounder, runs the floor, good touch around the hoop, good size for getting position. He'd def be a project pick... not as bad as a lot of Hornets fans are making out to be though.

6:31 EST- RealGM: Amare to Golden State. No word on the players involved, but it seems a done deal.

7:54- News again that Chandler talks are back on. PHX-NOH to swap picks if it happens.

Some Last Second Analysis

atthehive — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 18:43:02 -0000

Three guys I didn't talk much about- Tyler Hansbrough, Darren Collison, and James Johnson- are being linked with the Hornets, just hours before the draft.

Where do they fit on the spectrum I described a couple days ago?

Tyler Hansbrough

He's the Tim Duncan of college fist pumpers.

I mentioned briefly that his rebounding numbers were mediocre. That's still true. It's obviously a real flag for a guy that's known for grit. He doesn't block shots, and he has no wingspan, two more knocks against the hustle theory.

But what's he good at? There has to be some reason why so many people are high on him, right? Right. To me, while "grit" is the word everyone uses to describe him, a lot of teams think his scoring abilities could be for real. And though his floor percentages and his range are mediocre, this could very well be true. The reason is his ability to draw fouls. I can't believe I didn't see this until today, but here are his free throws attempted/possession in a four year college career: 52%, 55%, 54%, 53%. That's super consistent, and way, way better than any other prospects available to the Hornets (it's actually way better than most anybody in the draft, if you're wondering). Of course, as with Ty Lawson, you have to wonder how much the UNC system influenced this. The bottom line is I still wouldn't move him above the Blair/Lawson/Thornton/Maynor/(Daye?) range. But if he is our pick, getting that foul drawing ability at #21 wouldn't be a bad haul.

James Johnson

The reason I didn't talk about Johnson earlier was that most mocks had him in the 10-15 range. But he's been slipping as of late. This is more because other prospects are moving up, not due to any missteps by Johnson.

At first glance, he doesn't really fit a need. He's projected to be a SF/PF- which was what David West was projected to be- but he doesn't have West's bulk or even height. I'd be surprised if he is not entrenched at small forward a couple years down the line. His biggest attribute is that he's creative in terms of scoring. He has nice little flip shots with either hand from a good five to six feet, and this is evident in a 57% effective percentage. He doesn't really have range, but he has good ball skills overall. The downside is that he does not draw fouls effectively. At 24% last year, he posted a rate less than half of Hansbrough. He doesn't bring the rebounding ability that West did either. I can't imagine New Orleans is looking at Johnson seriously. He feels redundant and seemingly doesn't bring very many new skillsets.

Darren Collison

Collison was a guy I loved but didn't talk about since he seemed behind the Hornets' range. But I saw a post on HornetsReport today- "As for my friend in player personnel in NO, he is still very confident that Collison will be the pick but they are going back over the tape on Blair as they are starting to think he is a guy who might be there unexpectedly like Julian was." I don't know if it's true or not, but I guess it could be.

Collison played starting point guard at UCLA the last two years, but for the second year in a row, the guy who played alongside him will be drafted ahead of him, as a point guard (last year- Westbrook, this year- Holiday). He's got very strong fundamental skills. He was one of the top passers in college basketball at a nearly 40% assist rate, and though he had a high 20% turnover rate, I think assist:turnover ratio is a more important statistic in college basketball than turnovers alone. He shot a wild 52% from three last year, before dropping to 40%. He draws fouls at a substandard 30% rate, but he wasn't required to be much of a scorer in his offense. The added bonus is that he's an excellent defender. We've seen some terrific defenders come out of UCLA in recent years- Ariza and Mbah a Moute come to mind- and I think Collison could be great in the NBA.

Collison would be a reach at #21, for sure. If he is indeed the target, the Hornets were foolish not to get a deal done with Portland, who had too many picks for their own good. But Collison's stock may not be reflective of his value, and this would be a highly safe pick.

SB Nation User Blog: atthehive

Random Thoughts

Clippers to trade Zach Randolph

Clippers to trade Zach Randolph

Chris Paul on BDL Create-a-Caption

Chris Paul on BDL Create-a-Caption

Trading Tyson Chandler

The Shopping List

"Uh Oh, Everybody's Gone And/Or (Probably And) We're Broke."

"Yeah If We Got Him, Sweet... But We're Not Getting Him"

"Maybe They'll Forgive Us For Not Taking Blair Now"

"The Heavens Have Smiled Upon Us"

The Budget

Hornets Total

78, 449, 353

Projected Salary Cap

57, 300, 000

Projected Luxury Tax

70, 000, 000

I was saying that was out the window. I thought, ‘I won’t be in town, I’ll have to settle for out of...

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Collison

Draft Day Open Thread

Some Last Second Analysis

Tyler Hansbrough

James Johnson

Darren Collison