SBNation.com User Blog: austinchief

How Many UDFAs Make It Into the NFL & Their Impact

austinchief — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:49:43 -0000

How Many UDFAs Make It Into the NFL & Their Impact

With UDFAs getting signed and camp starting, KC's resident stats man, Martin Manley recently made a post about UDFAs, how important they are in the NFL, how many are in the NFL, and what % of team rosters they make up (as well as on the Chiefs). Here are some meta-calculations from it:

1. On average UDFAs make up 37% of league rosters
2. UDFAs made up 60% of the Rams team in 2011
3. 30% of the Chiefs roster last year were UDFAs

It's a good read that I recommend checking out.

Trade Value Chart vs. Player Performance

austinchief — Thu, 10 May 2012 21:28:20 -0000

Trade Value Chart vs. Player Performance

Pretty good write up on the difference between the trade value chart for players that GMs use vs. the actual success rate from KC's resident statistician, Martin Manley

Chiefs' Reversion To the Mean

austinchief — Wed, 09 May 2012 00:08:13 -0000

Chiefs' Reversion To the Mean

An outline of the areas that the Chiefs "over-performed" on in relatively unpredictable areas in 2010 and how they came down in 2011. Hopefully this means a reversion back to the mean and a stronger 2012

Draft Picks by Round vs. All Pros, Pro Bowls & Starters

austinchief — Thu, 03 May 2012 22:26:47 -0000

Draft Picks by Round vs. All Pros, Pro Bowls & Starters

Martin Manley put up a great analysis of the comparative value of a player by round for the 3 success outcomes (all pro, pro bowl, primary starter). Given the after draft thinking, it's a great read: http://sportsinreview.com/blog/?p=1018

I also did some derivative analysis on it. Looking at pro bowls a player drafted in the 1st round is X times more likely to go to a pro bowl in a given year than the other rounds as follows:

Round 2: 2.7
Round 3: 4.7
Round 4: 10.8
Round 5: 8.3
Round 6: 10.4
Round 7: 20.8

If I’m a good team, I use those ratios as my bible to draft and trade picks.

If I’m not a good team and I need a bunch of starters across the board, then I try to find many (hopefully rational) trade partners with good teams to take advantage of the different ratios for round 1 vs. other rounds for primary starters, which are:

Round 2: 1.4
Round 3: 2.2
Round 4: 2.7
Round 5: 3.9
Round 6: 4.8
Round 7: 5.2

The grid (based off Martin’s data) can be found at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak9DQaylNFGndFdfTFhFUUYyTnRrd0tLWmh1YlRMUXc&pli=1#gid=0

Jamal Charles Looking Buff - Good Rehab?

austinchief — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 19:07:41 -0000

Jamal Charles Looking Buff - Good Rehab?

Hope the legs look similar

Does it Not Matter Which Draft Prospects the Chiefs Meet With?

austinchief — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 22:15:40 -0000

I've seen lots of stories and posts about who the Chiefs are meeting with or what Pro Days they are going to. However, it's been difficult for me to place any value on any of these posts. Thus far, I've been ignoring them all.

Why, you ask? It's simple...

During this offseason, I took a look at the grid that AP put together covering the players that the Chiefs had met with. It's a great piece of work and puts things in perspective. But, take a deeper look at it. See anything odd? Take a look at a list of whom the Chiefs actually drafted.

Not a lot of overlap. One player, to be exact. So this leads me to believe one of two things:

1. The information in the AP 2010 Grid was far, far from complete, or

2. The Chiefs are evaluating most of their players from tape and phone calls

Either way, it's hard for me to get jazzed up about who is meeting with whom. If I could get some input that the problem was #1, incomplete grid, that might help but then it also seems to say that what I'll read here about draft prospect meetings isn't going to mean much because the publicized meetings don't appear to correlate to who the Chiefs pick. I'm hoping someone else can shed further light on this, because I love the AP site, but the above is hard for me to argue with.

Why, you ask? It's simple...

Not a lot of overlap. One player, to be exact. So this leads me to believe one of two things:

1. The information in the AP 2010 Grid was far, far from complete, or

2. The Chiefs are evaluating most of their players from tape and phone calls

Judge Rules in Favor of NFLPA Regarding Contracts with Television Networks

austinchief — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 23:59:09 -0000

Judge Rules in Favor of NFLPA Regarding Contracts with Television Networks

"David Doty has ruled that the NFL violated the Collective Bargaining Agreement by striking deals with television networks that require ongoing payments to the league during a work stoppage.

Judge Doty has ordered another hearing to determine whether the players’ remedy will be financial damages or an injunction preventing the league from pocketing the money during a lockout."

Tamba Hali currently leading NFL in sacks

austinchief — Sun, 02 Jan 2011 21:29:19 -0000

It's bittersweet with the loss today, but Tamba Hali just leapfrogged into 1st place in the NFL in sacks. Three players tied for 4th place are playing in the late game. Minus a 2 sack game from them and Hali has the crown all alone. If he holds the spot this is the kind of recognition that should help put him over the top in pro bowl voting next year. Depending on the outlet, Hali earned 2.5 or 3 sacks today. The above numbers assume only 2.5 sacks. Nice job Hali!

swampjacket wrote on 5/1/2010 1:30:09 AM: "Chiefs fans, Just wanted to tell you that you are...

austinchief — Sat, 01 May 2010 19:39:34 -0000

swampjacket wrote on 5/1/2010 1:30:09 AM:
"Chiefs fans, Just wanted to tell you that you are getting a pro-bowl football player who is an even better young man off the field. He will be loyal to the team, appreciative of the fans, and be very involved in your community as he is here in Fairburn where he grew up. I know the Berry's well and coached Eric in high school and just can't say enough good things about him and his family. Good Luck and I only wish he could have been a Falcon!"

Chiefs Check Out Their New Players At Rookie Camp