SB Nation User Blog: awiggo

Race to the Roses November 9 & BCS Bowl Predictions

awiggo — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:34:01 -0000

Alabama running back Mark Ingram -- the key to the Tide's title hopes. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

After back to back weekends with no major shakeups, college football finally felt a tremor as three of the top ten teams in last week's BCS standings fell. Iowa failed to erase a fourth quarter deficit and lost at home to Northwestern; Oregon fought hard but couldn't overcome the two-headed monster of Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck; and LSU succumbed to injuries, SEC officiating, and the Mark Ingram and Julio Jones show in Tuscaloosa.

So, where does that leave us? We can safely say goodbye to those three teams as the field of potential national champions looks much thinner. If you discount teams, like TCU and Boise State, from non-automatic qualifying leagues, like I do, then you're left with only five teams from BCS conferences who are undefeated or have a single loss and have a legitimate chance at Pasadena-Florida, Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, and Georgia Tech. Sorry, Iowa and Pittsburgh fans, it is just not gonna happen.

I'm not going to go so far as to say the BCS is definitely going to work this year but it probably will. I will not be betting against Texas, Florida, or Alabama dropping a regular season game the rest of the way. And as long as Texas can take care of Kansas State/Nebraska in a virtual home game in Arlington, we'll see two undefeated conference champions play for the national title. Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State fans will have small beefs but nothing significant or foundation shattering to the BCS formula.

Let's quickly play the game of matching teams to their BCS bowl destinations. This is assuming Florida wins out, including an SEC title game victory over an undefeated Alabama, Ohio State defeats Iowa this weekend, and Texas, TCU, and Boise State also win out. Florida and Texas would play for it all giving the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls first and second selections as replacement picks. The Sugar would definitely take the 12-1 Crimson Tide, but the Fiesta's selection is not as clear cut. They could take 12-0 TCU-a reasonable and deserving selection but one without a significant fan base or national draw. They could take 10-2 USC-probable Pac 10 runner ups with an easy geographic tie and guaranteed strong tv ratings. The Fiesta Bowl might also look at 10-2 Oklahoma State, should the Cowboys win out. I think the easy pick here is the USC, though. The Orange Bowl gets the ACC champion automatically, let's say Georgia Tech. After those picks and automatic berths, the bowls would look like this:
BCS Title: Florida vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs.
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs.

The remaining picks go Orange, then Fiesta, and then Sugar. Cincinnati must be picked as Big East champs and TCU must be picked by virtue of finishing in the top 12 of the final BCS and being highest ranked team from a non-automatic qualifying conference. The last selection is the final at-large one-possible picks are Boise State, Oklahoma State, Miami, Iowa, Penn State, or Houston. These potential picks must have nine wins and finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings.

I say the Orange grabs Cincinnati, the Fiesta take Oklahoma State, and then the Sugar is left with TCU.

BCS Title: Florida vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Oklahoma State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. TCU

In this scenario, Boise State would be left out. Oh well. The Broncos are not done, though and this assumes that Oklahoma State wins out. Notre Dame's loss helped Boise on Saturday as did the Ohio State win in Happy Valley. Had Penn State won, they would have been in great position to earn an at-large bid and the Big Ten would have earned two bids. Now, it looks like the Big Ten will end up with just a single BCS bid. Moving forward, losses by Oklahoma State and Miami down the stretch would significantly improve Boise's chances.

After the jump, a look at this week's Favorites, Contenders, and those that Need Help...

The Favorites:

1. Florida (9-0; BCS 1): If the Gators are going to stumble pre-SEC title game, it will be this Saturday in Columbia. The 2:30 pm kick and the fact that the Old Ball Coach hasn't had any luck against his former team should make Gator fans comfortable.

Next Games: 11/14 @ S. Carolina, 11/21 Fl. International, 11/28 Florida State

2. Alabama (9-0; BCS 2): I thought LSU had a good shot to knock off Alabama and for three quarters my prediction looked pretty good. There was the non-interception call, but in the fourth quarter Jones and Ingram were too much for the Tigers. Give ‘Bama credit. That said, the trip to Starkville won't be easy, nor will the season ending trip to Auburn. Of the top three, there is no question that Alabama is one most likely to lose before championship Saturday.

Next Games: 11/14 @ Miss State, 11/21 Chattanooga, 11/27 @ Auburn

3. Texas (9-0; BCS 3): One down, four more to go. Texas started slowly but it didn't matter as Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley had career days and the defense was its usual outstanding self (3 pts, 151 total yds). Baylor showed some life on Saturday with a surprising win at Missouri. However, the trip to Waco is nearly a home game for the ‘Horns and shouldn't cause any trouble.

Next Games: 11/14 @ Baylor, 11/21 Kansas, 11/26 @ Texas A&M

The Contenders:

1. TCU (9-0; BCS 4): San Diego State became the first team in a month to score double digits against the Horned Frogs, and they still got pasted, 55-12. The final real hurdle to earning a BCS berth comes this weekend as TCU hosts Utah. Yes, TCU jumped Cincinnati this week. Don't get too excited Horned Frog fans. Your team is ahead by only .0040. TCU is ahead slightly in both polls but behind Cincy in the computers. The computers will likely favor Cincy as the Bearcats will be helped more with wins over WVU and Pitt than TCU will be with a win over Utah. Pollsters could also swing toward Cincy with more tv exposure and more quality wins. Just speculation and speculation that won't matter unless one of the Favorites lose.

Next Games: 11/14 Utah, 11/21 @ Wyoming, 11/28 New Mexico

2. Cincinnati (9-0; BCS 5): You thought Colt McCoy had a good day, how about Zach Collaros (29/37 for 480 yds and a td)? Not bad for a backup. The Bearcats did give up 35 second half points but they remain unblemished. Their next two contests are at home and should put Cincy at 11-0. Only the season ending trip to Pittsburgh looks scary. If ‘Bama dropps at game but then beats Florida in Atlanta, who would you send to Pasadena, 12-0 Cincy or 12-1 Alabama?

Next Games: 11/13 West Virginia, 11/21 Bye, 11/27 Illinois

Need Help:

1. Boise State (9-0; BCS 6): A lot of the chaos that Boise needed to happen occurred on Saturday. However, it still isn't enough and PR firm isn't going to help. First, the Broncos need to keep winning. Next, a Utah upset win in Fort Worth would put the Broncos back in the driver's seat for a BCS bowl. Last, Boise fans should also be rooting against USC, Arizona, Miami, and Oklahoma State.

Next Games: 11/14 Idaho, 11/20 @ Utah State, 11/27 Nevada

2. Georgia Tech (9-1; BCS 8): Paul Johnson's club just keeps on winning. Their resume now includes a three point win over Clemson, a five point win at Florida State, and an overtime win against Wake Forest. Their only misstep came in September against Miami. The Yellow Jackets have just two games left and are poised to cruise into the ACC title game at 11-1.

Next Games: 11/14 @ Duke, 11/21 Bye, 11/28 Georgia

Race to the Roses November 2

awiggo — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:08:29 -0000

Another weekend without any majors upsets and we have basically the same situation from a week ago. Florida, Texas, and Alabama are all in great position for a trip to Pasadena; Iowa somehow continues to win; and Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State are making their best pitches for national respect.

Nine weeks into the season and a surprising seven teams from six different conferences are still undefeated. As I mentioned last week, I am rooting for as much BCS chaos as possible. I would love to hear people justify the brilliance of the BCS if six teams are perfect and computers and voters, who still think Iowa is good, select the two of them who should play for the title. Or, and maybe just as likely, what if only one of Texas, Florida, and Alabama goes undefeated, and the BCS selects a one-loss team to take on the Longhorns over three or four other undefeated conference champions.

Only five more weeks until the BCS doesn't work again. I can hardly wait.

After the jump, a look at this week's Favorites, Contenders, and those that Need Help...

The Favorites:

1. Florida (8-0; BCS 1): After struggling in back to back weeks against Arkansas and Mississippi State, Florida finally looked the part with a convincing win over Georgia. Three of the Gators' final four are at home. The only road game remaining is a trip to South Carolina in a couple of weeks. I've been shocked before and every college football Saturday produces some surprises; however, it hard to see Florida not landing in the SEC title game undefeated.

Next Games: 11/7 Vanderbilt, 11/14 @ S. Carolina, 11/21 Fl. International

2. Texas (8-0; BCS 2): Same Saturday night television slot, same dominating performance from the Longhorns. It's pretty easy to win games when your defense scores as many points as it gives up. The road is more than paved for the ‘Horns. Texas will be at least 14 point favorites in each of their final four games and probably double digit favorites against whatever mediocre team the North spits out. I'm not afraid to admit that I've started looking for flights to Pasadena, and I recommend you do too.

Next Games: 11/7 UCF, 11/14 @ Baylor, 11/21 Kansas

3. Alabama (8-0; BCS 3): ‘Bama had the week off and has now played the same number of games as Florida and Texas. After needing to block a field goal to defeat Tennessee in Tuscaloosa last week and impressive performances by the Gators and the Longhorns on big stages, it is not hard to see why Alabama lost some votes in yesterday's polls. Tide fans better hope Grey McElroy found some confidence. Otherwise, I can see LSU shutting down a one-dimensional Alabama offense and ruining the dream SEC title game match-up.

Next Games: 11/7 LSU, 11/14 @ Miss State, 11/21 Chattanooga

The Contenders:

1. Iowa (9-0; BCS 4): The Hawkeyes do not look like title contenders. The best teams in the country do not fall behind to Indiana at home; they do not struggle against Arkansas State; and they do not need to block field goals to escape Northern Iowa. Don't worry ‘Horns fans, Iowa's time is about up. If Northwestern doesn't get them this weekend, Ohio State should be able to take them down next Saturday. And even if their luck does continue, no objective college football fan would put them in the same category as the top three, or about five or six other teams for that matter. Iowa is not finishing in the top two in the BCS.

Next Games: 11/7 Northwestern, 11/14 @ Ohio State, 11/21 Minnesota

2. LSU (7-1; BCS 9): I really like this spot for the Tigers. After losing to Florida, the media moved on. It is been all about Florida, Alabama, and Texas mostly and about those other undefeated teams next. No one is talking about LSU. Les Miles club took a week off after their lone defeat, then dominated Auburn, and just held Tulane scoreless in a 41-0 rout. Sure, it was Tulane, but shutouts against anyone are impressive. If LSU wins this weekend, where would you rank them? 3^rd? 4^th?

Next Games: 11/7 @ Alabama, 11/14 La Tech, 11/21 @ Mississippi

Need Help:

1. Cincinnati (8-0; BCS 5): Still no Tony Pike, still no problem. Cincy traveled to Syracuse and outlasted Greg Paulus and the Orangeman, 28-7. The Bearcats' next three are all at home. West Virginia will be a tough game but realistically, only a season ending trip to Pittsburgh stands in the way an undefeated season. A second straight BCS game is highly likely.

Next Games: 11/7 Connecticut, 11/13 West Virginia, 11/21 Bye

2. TCU (8-0; BCS 6): TCU is the best team no one is talking about. The Horned Frogs dominated UNLV, 41-0, and continue to field an elite defensive unit. Only Texas State has scored more than 17 points on TCU this season.

Next Games: 11/7 @ San Diego, 11/14 Utah, 11/21 @ Wyoming

3. Oregon (7-1; BCS 8): I thought Oregon had a great shot to knock off USC but I never would have predicted 47 points and a 27 point win. The Ducks still have four conference games and are far from done. However, Oregon is in great shape for a trip to the Rose Bow as the lone undefeated Pac 10 club.

Next Games: 11/7 @ Stanford, 11/14 Arizona State, 11/21 @ Arizona

Race to the Roses October 26

awiggo — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 03:10:52 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Mack Brown agrees: That's what we've been waiting for. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Browse more photos »

A weekend without upsets produces similar BCS standings from a week ago. Florida, Alabama, and Texas all still control their own destiny. Win and move on is all that matters. Some might want to add LSU as well but their one loss and a less than impressive body of work, so far, places them just a rung behind the favorites. Iowa and Cincinnati continue their march toward perfection, and things could get very interesting if fewer than two of the favorites run the table.

The big news in the standings is TCU's jump of Boise State. The BCS awards the top team from any non-automatic qualifying league an automatic berth into the BCS if that team is ranked in the top 12 or ranked in the top 16 and ahead of an automatic qualifying conference champion. The key word in that rule is "team" -- only one such team automatically qualifies. If both TCU and Boise State win out, they will both be ranked in the top 12 but only one will earn an automatic berth into a BCS bowl game. Now, that doesn't mean that the other team couldn't be chosen. However, given the choice between Boise State and the SEC championship game loser or a second team from the Big 10 (Penn State) or a second team from the Pac 10 (Oregon) or maybe even a second team from the Big XII (Oklahoma State), it is hard to see how the Broncos getting picked.

The even worse news for Boise State is that their schedule the rest of the season will hurt them in the computers for sure, and probably not impress the voters either. As long as TCU continues to win, they will remain on the inside track for a first-ever BCS game.

Other musings from the second BCS standings of the season:.

Iowa jumped from six last week to four this week and still has room to grow in the polls but already has a perfect computer ranking. Just for fun and to silence worrisome BONers, I ran the numbers with Iowa a strong 4^thin both the Harris poll and the Coaches poll while still giving them the perfect computer ranking. The Hawkeyes would still be behind the ‘Horns. No worries.
USC's computer strength improved from eleventh best to ninth best after defeating Oregon State. Should the Trojans defeat Oregon this weekend, who is highly ranked by the computer themselves, USC will draw closer to Iowa's fourth position.
I continue to root for as many undefeated teams as possible. I would like nothing more than for Alabama/Florida, Texas, Iowa, Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State to all win out. The more craziness, the better.
Texas is ranked 3^rd(Billingsley), 4^th(Colley Matrix), 5^th (Anderson & Hester), 6^th (Wolfe), 10^th (Massey), and 14^th(Sagarin) by the computers. Their computer ranking is good for fifth best overall.

After the jump, a look at this week's Favorites, Contenders, and those that Need Help...

The Favorites:

1. Florida (7-0; BCS 1): Well, the premature engraving of Tim Tebow's name has stopped after two pick sixes and another four-quarter strugglefest with an inferior conference foe. Image is nothing to the teams in this category, though. Win and move on is all that matters.

Next Games: 10/31 (n) Georgia, 11/7 Vanderbilt, 11/14 @ S. Carolina

2. Alabama (8-0; BCS 2): After five straight games with 30 or more points to start the season, ‘Bama has scored 22 or less in each of their last three. Greg McElory continues to struggle throwing the football (18/29 for a measly 120 yds against Tennessee). If the passing game isn't found during the bye week, LSU will have a great shot in Tuscaloosa in two weeks.

Next Games: 10/31 Bye, 11/7 LSU, 11/14 @ Miss State

3. Texas (7-0; BCS 3): Kudos to Greg Davis and Mack Brown for making extremely necessary offensive changes despite being undefeated. The insertions of Marquise Goodwin, Fozzy Whittaker, and Malcolm Williams and Jordan Shipley's move back into the slot paid huge dividends over the first two quarters in Columbia. Had that Texas team shown up in Wyoming or against Tech or Colorado, the ‘Horns would be the clear number one team in the country. Oh and by the way, the Texas D is the best of the Brown era. Dirty, dirty, dirty.

Next Games:10/31 @ Ok State, 11/7 UCF, 11/14 @ Baylor

The Contenders:

1. Iowa (8-0; BCS 4): The Hawkeyes may have won ugly but they won again. For the second week in a row, they prevailed as a road underdog to a conference opponent. Should Iowa win their next two, it will be interesting to see if they are road dogs again in Columbus. As mentioned above, Iowa likely won't have enough quality wins in the voters' eyes to overtake any of the top three undefeated teams. However, things will become very dicey should only one of those three end the year undefeated. Would Iowa or a one-loss SEC champ deserve to play for it all? What about an undefeated Hawkeye team or a once-defeated Texas or a one-loss Pac 10 champ?

Next Games: 10/31 Indiana, 11/7 Northwestern, 11/14 @ Ohio State

2. USC (6-1; BCS 5): A week ago, I wrote that USC better start winning with style so that they could win an argument over a one-loss SEC champion. Well, they barely held off Oregon State at home and are now behind Iowa in addition to not having a strong argument over a one-loss Florida or Alabama. Trojan fans, don't get too down. If you win in Eugene this weekend, the voters will love you once again and the computers will surely improve their impression as well.

Next Games: 10/31 @ Oregon, 11/7 @ Arizona St, 11/14 Stanford

3. LSU (6-1; BCS 9): The Tigers continue to quietly plod along the road to an SEC West title. LSU steps out of conference this weekend before traveling to Alabama to decide the division crown. Their defense appears legit. If they can get their offense going, look out Tide.

Next Games: 10/31 Tulane, 11/7 @ Alabama, 11/14 La Tech

Need Help:

1. Cincinnati (7-0; BCS 8): No Tony Pike, no problem. The Bearcats rolled past Louisville on Saturday, 41-10. Pike can easily take another week off, if needed, as a trip to Syracuse should scare no one. The win at South Florida was nice, but Cincy better hammer West Virginia and Pittsburgh to have any shot to realistically jump into the national championship picture.

Next Games: 10/31 @ Syracuse, 11/7 Connecticut, 11/13 West Virginia

2. TCU (7-0; BCS 6): The Horned Frogs are here to stay. TCU stomped past BYU, 38-7, in Provo, and appear headed to 12-0 and a trip to Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.

Next Games:10/31 UNLV, 11/7 @ San Diego, 11/14 Utah

3. Oregon (6-1; BCS 10): The Ducks continue to roll too and will now have a chance to really impress as ESPN "Gameday" visits this weekend. Oregon is already loved by the computers but would shoot up the polls and consequently the BCS standings with a win over USC.

Next Games:10/31 USC, 11/7 @ Stanford, 11/14 Arizona State

Knocking on the Door but Nobody's Home:

1. Boise State (7-0; BCS 7): The Broncos win 54-9 on the road and drop three spots in the BCS. That's about right. Their strength of schedule is 54^th(Sagarin) and will only get worse, as their remaining six opponents are just awful. The voters aren't going to move them up, the computers are beginning to hate them, and TCU just passed them. As long as they Horned Frogs keep winning their BCS dreams are dead.

Race to the Roses October 19

awiggo — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 02:53:25 -0000

More photos » by Phil Sandlin - AP

Might as well just give him the Heisman now. Excuse me while I puke. (AP Photo/Phil Sandlin)

Browse more photos »

Despite the fact that none of the top three teams brought their "A" games on Saturday, all three survived and advanced. For Florida, Alabama, and Texas that is all it's about-survival. The top three in all polls don't need to worry about style points; all they need to do is win. The potential collision of an undefeated SEC champion vs. Texas for the national championship remains a possibility.

There were a few teams that did crap the bed last weekend, though. We can officially say goodbye to Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and even Kansas from the national title hunt. Terrell Pryor couldn't hold onto the ball; Bud Foster couldn't figure out how to stop Georgia Tech's triple option; and Kansas couldn't stop Colorado after Coach Hawkins finally benched his son.

The first edition of the BCS standings is out. The top three were no surprise, but there were a few surprises that followed.

Boise State, Cincinnati, and Iowa are all ranked ahead of USC. USC has the advantage in the human polls (who would believe it?)but the Broncos, Bearcats, and Hawkeyes are each ranked considerably higher than the Trojans in the computers. In fact, LSU, TCU, Oregon, and Georgia Tech are ahead of USC in the computers too. The Trojans computer strength should improve soon with games against the Oregon schools upcoming.
Penn State and Oklahoma State are both hated by the computers but slide into the 13^th and 15^th spots respectively because of their human poll rankings.
Texas is ranked 3^rd(Billingsley), 4^th (Anderson & Hester), 4^th(Colley Matrix), 7^th (Wolfe), 9^th (Massey), and 15^th(Sagarin) by the computers. Their computer ranking is good for sixth best overall.

After the jump, a look at this week's Favorites, Contenders, and those that Need Help...

The Favorites:

1. Florida (6-0; BCS 1): Does Florida really even need to play the rest of their games? With calls like those, how can they possibly lose? And with Colt struggling, Sam Bradford out, and Jimmy Clausen now saddled with two loses, I guess they can start engraving Tim Tebow's name on the Heisman trophy for a second time. Seriously, this is not the same Florida team that we saw a year ago. They are not as explosive offensively or as stout defensively. That said, it is hard to see a loss on their remaining schedule.

Next Games: 10/24 @ Mississippi St, 10/31 (n) Georgia, 11/7 Vanderbilt

2. Alabama (7-0; BCS 2): Bama jumped to the top spot in the AP poll and deservedly so, but the Tide definitely looked beatable. Greg McElroy and the Alabama passing game has all but disappeared over the last two weeks. Mark Ingramis a stud, no doubt, but a one-dimensional offense isn't going to win a national title. The ‘Bama vs. LSU game in three weeks could realistically end in a scoreless tie.

Next Games: 10/24 Tennessee, 10/31 Bye, 11/7 LSU

3. Texas (6-0; BCS 3): As bad as the offense has looked in spots this season, the ‘Horns are still undefeated and in a perfect position for another trip to Pasadena. Glass half full: the running game came alive in spots against OU, Marquis Goodwin's emergence, UT special teams, defense, and the last four UT opponents are UCF, Baylor, Kansas, and A&M. Glass half empty: the offensive line remains the weakest unit on the team, Greg Davis, slow starts, and Colt keeps throwing the ball to the other team.

Next Games:10/24 at Missouri, 10/31 @ Ok State, 11/7 UCF

The Contenders:

1. USC (5-1; BCS 7): The Trojans escaped South Bend and appear to be in excellent position to back into the national title game should the top teams stumble. I say appear because I'm not so sure that they don't need more than a little help. Should Texas lose, USC is in decent shape but would they be more deserving than an undefeated Big 10 champion or an undefeated Big East champion? I'm not so sure. Should Florida and / or Alabama lose, wouldn't a one-loss SEC champion still be higher ranked and more appreciated by the computers than a one-loss USC? I think so. In my opinion, the Trojans need to start worrying about style points and impressive wins over Oregon State and Oregon in the next two weekends would be a good place to start.

Next Games:, 10/24 Oregon State; 10/31 @ Oregon, 11/7 @ Arizona St

2. Cincinnati (6-0; BCS 5): The Bearcats are the surprise of the season. Cincinnati wasn't even ranked in the pre-season and after less than two months are ranked in the top five of the first BCS standings. Tony Pike's injury doesn't appear to be serious and even without him, Cincy should have no trouble over the next couple of games. College football has been crazy already...with wins over West Virginia and Pittsburgh and an undefeated campaign, who knows.

Next Games: 10/24 Louisville, 10/31 @ Syracuse, 11/7 Connecticut

Need Help:

1. Boise State (6-0; BCS 4): Why so low? Cause they're Boise State. As BZ mentioned last week, this may be as high as they can get. Major conferences teams like Cincinnati, Iowa, and USC are all likely to jump the Broncos in the weeks ahead.

Next Games: 10/24 @ Hawaii, 10/31 San Jose State, 11/6 @ La Tech

2. Iowa (7-0; BCS 6): Vegas may not believe in the Hawkeyes but they don't have to. Road trips to East Lansing and to Columbus are all that really stand in the way of an improbable undefeated season. I think Iowa will have no trouble jumping Boise State and Cincinnati in the weeks ahead, as long as they keep winning.

Next Games: 10/24 @ Michigan State, 10/31 Indiana, 11/7 Northwestern

Knocking on the Door:

1. TCU (6-0; BCS 8): Game at BYU this weekend is only real chance to make some noise. Should they win out and be ranked in the BCS top eight, they deserve a BCS berth even if Boise State is also undefeated and ranked ahead of them.

2. LSU (5-1; BCS 9): It was easy to overlook the Tigers after a loss to Florida and a bye week. However, LSU is not completely out of it. Les Miles' club will almost certainly be 7-1 when they travel to Alabama on November 7^th. Win that and a rematch with Florida in a de facto semifinal game is not out of the question.

3. Miami (5-1; BCS 10): With no ranked teams remaining, 11-1 is a possibility. ‘Canes are in good position to claim ACC Coastal division but outlasting Ga Tech and Va Tech won't be easy and clawing their way to the BCS top two is unlikely.

4. Oregon (5-1; BCS 11): The Ducks have rebounded nicely from an embarrassing opening weekend loss with wins over Utah, Cal, and Washington. It is likely too little, too late but a win over USC in two weeks would make things interesting.

5. Penn State (6-1; BCS 13): It's hard to see how non-undefeated Big 10 team gets all the way into the top two. Even wins at Michigan and over Ohio State won't impress enough.

Race to the Roses September 28

awiggo — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 02:22:18 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Can Houston shock the college football world?

Browse more photos »

Saturday after Saturday, the unbeatens continue to fall. A week ago, I proclaimed that, after three short Saturdays, we were already down to just seven teams who could go undefeated and have a legitimate claim to a spot in the national title game. Well, three of those seven (Mississippi, Penn State, and Cal) just lost. While it is way too early in the season to say that the title race is down to only four teams, those four (Florida, Alabama, LSU, and Texas) should each feel secure that they control their own destiny. Style points certainly matter for the bunch of one-loss teams, but for those four, it's win and move on.

Because Florida, LSU, and Alabama all reside in the SEC, there can be no more than two undefeated teams from the remaining bunch of four. This should be particularly uplifting for one-loss teams like, Virginia Tech, USC, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and even Ohio State, Penn State, and Cal.

I am not forgetting about the other undefeated teams: Boise State, TCU, Houston, and Cincinnati either. (Note: Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, South Florida, UCLA, and Auburn all also undefeated.)

On first glance, Boise State at #5 looks to be in the best position to earn a shot in Pasadena, but they went undefeated last year and played in a late December bowl. The Broncos don't have another ranked team on their schedule and an opening game home win over Oregon won't be enough. Boise State is in the best position to earn an automatic BCS berth from a non-automatic qualifier league.

TCU (#10) already owns road wins over Virginia and Clemson and will have the chance to add to their resume with trips to Air Force and to BYU in November. Still, running the table for TCU would only include one win over a ranked team.

Houston has two wins over Big XII schools including a win over then-#5 Oklahoma State. The Cougars have five of their next seven on the road but none will likely come against a ranked opponent. U of H could run the table if their offense continues to be sharp, but their chance to really impress has passed and they sit only at #12 in the latest Coaches poll. A ride into the top two is not possible.

Cincinnati (#11) is a little different from the other three listed here. Should the Bearcats win the Big East, undefeated or not, they will automatically earn a berth in a BCS game. You can debate the fairness of including the Big East over the Mountain West, WAC, or C-USA if you like. Cincy's resume includes a win at Oregon State and a home victory over Fresno State. However, unless South Florida jumps in the top 25, they could easily win out without ever facing a ranked opponent. The Big East is obviously the weakest of the BCS conferences, so the chances of even an undefeated champion playing for the national title remain slight.

A look at the top contenders after the jump...

The Favorites:

1. Florida (4-0): The Gators looked more like defending national champs on Saturday as they notched an impressive conference road win over Kentucky. However, things are still far from right in Gainesville. Tim Tebow entered the game reportedly suffering from the flu, along with a few other Gators, and left the game with a concussion. A bye week couldn't have come a better time.

Next Games:10/3 Bye, 10/10 at LSU, 10/17 Arkansas

2. Texas (4-0): Longhorn fans finally saw the complete performance on both sides of the ball they we've been waiting for. The defense was downright nasty, and, after the pick six, the offense raced up and down the field impressively. An off week and a spanking of the Colorado Buffaloes await, before the ‘Horns start the three game stretch which will decide their season.

Next Games:10/3 Bye, 10/10 Colorado, 10/17 OU (Dallas)

3. Alabama (4-0): I'm moving ‘Bama into this category because they control their own destiny, and more importantly, they look the part. The Alabama defense is already elite, and the sometimes stagnant offense as been nearly as impressive. Behind junior quarterback Greg McElroy and sophomore back, Mark Ingram, Alabama is averaging over 40 points per game. An SEC title game match-up with Florida is something all college football fans should be rooting for.

Next Games: 10/3 @ Kentucky, 10/10 @ Mississippi, 10/17 South Carolina

The Contenders:

1. LSU (4-0): Sure, LSU controls its own destiny too but needing a goal line stand to win at Mississippi State doesn't do it for me. Plus, the Tigers' schedule is just ridiculous starting with a trip to Athens this weekend. Just winning one of the next two seems like a daunting task

Next Games: 10/3 @ Georgia, 10/10 Florida, 10/24 Auburn

2. Oklahoma (2-1): Don't look now but the Sooners are back in the top ten. OU also has more than enough chances to impress moving forward: three of their next four come against ranked opponents at either neutral sites or on the road. Fans of other one-loss teams may argue but if OU runs the table, their body of work will stand above anyone else's.

Next Games: 10/2 @ Miami, 10/10 Baylor, 10/17 Texas (Dallas)

Need Help:

1. Virginia Tech (3-1): It is fairly easy to dismiss the Big East champ, but not as easy to dismiss the Hokies should they win out. Va Tech already has wins over Nebraska and Miami and could add wins over potentially ranked Georgia Tech and North Carolina. The last third of their schedule is pretty weak, though, so style points may matter more to the Hokies than to anyone else. That said, Frank Beamer's club would probably not be ranked above a one-loss Big XII champ or above a one-loss USC.

Next Games: 10/3 @ Duke, 10/10 Boston College, 10/17 @ Georgia Tech

2. USC (3-1): The modius operandi of the Trojans in recent years has been to win their nonconference games, drop their Pac 10 opener to an unranked opponent, and then either run the table or come close. So, things are going according to plan. It won't be easy to win out this season. The Trojans go to Cal, to Notre Dame, and at Oregon before closing with three straight at home.

Next Games: 10/3 @ Cal, 10/10 Bye, 10/17 @ Notre Dame

Race to the Roses September 21

awiggo — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 01:29:58 -0000

This feels more like 2007 than 2005. In 2005, Texas and USC started atop the college football landscape, thoroughly dominated in every game but one each, and seemed to be on a predetermined collision course in Pasadena for the national title. In 2007, there were no dominant teams, and it was more the last two teams standing (Ohio St and LSU) after countless others (Missouri, West Virginia, USC, Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia Tech) blew their chances. Although neither Texas nor Florida have relinquished their top spots in the first three weeks, neither has looked like USC or Texas of just a few years ago either.

This will be a weekly column moving forward, and thankfully I haven't had time to write it after the first two weeks of games. I'm sure it would have included some silly prognostications about USC being in better shape than Texas or BYU as a national championship sleeper or how Oklahoma State had a desirable schedule for an unlikely trip to respectability. Oh well, I'll start now and state the obvious: if Texas and Florida win out, they will play for the national title on January 8^th.

As BZ touched on last week in the Pundit Roundup, college football is sadly controlled by a narrative as much as it is results on the field. California and Penn State could both go undefeated and would almost certainly be left out, given other undefeated teams remain. Even if the Gators stumble, given the perceptions of the Pac 10 and Big 10, another undefeated SEC team would be the more likely replacements in the national title game than perfect Golden Bears or Nittany Lions.

Realistically, we are already down to just seven teams which could go undefeated and play for the national title: Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, LSU, Texas, Penn State, and Cal. There are others who have already suffered a loss but who could have very impressive resumes should they run the table (OU, Oklahoma State, USC, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech), but none of them have a shot to leap back ahead of an undefeated team in the first group.

So, will two teams run the table and make the BCS system look like it "worked"? I have no idea but after the first three weeks and considering that four of the seven perfect teams are from the same conference, I wouldn't bet on two undefeated teams playing in Pasadena. Join me after the jump to take a closer look at each team's chances.

The Favorites:

1. Florida (3-0): Like the Longhorns, it is hard to say anything with certainty about this team. Wins over Charleston Southern and Troy are glorified scrimmages and a ten point home win over Tennessee is nice but hardly impressive. Again like Texas, it is survive and move on. The Gators avoid Mississippi and Alabama from the SEC West this season but must travel to LSU in three weeks, tangle with Georgia in Jacksonville on Halloween, and close the season with enigmatic Florida State at home.
Next Games: 9/26 at Kentucky, 10/3 Bye, 10/10 at LSU

2. Texas (3-0): I want to believe in this team but can't. Not yet. Texas' first three games mirror those of the Gators: two wins over grossly inferior competition and a solid, yet flawed 10 point home victory over a conference opponent. Fans have to be pleased with Jordan Shipley, with the Texas pass rush, and with the Horns' ability to kick-start their offense in the second half but the slow starts, the play of the offensive line, and the depth issues caused by grades and injuries are still troubling. Texas should coast to 5-0 before heading into a tough three-game stretch in October.
Next Games: 9/26 UTEP, 10/3 Bye, 10/10 Colorado

The Contenders:

1. Alabama (3-0): An opening season win over ACC-contending Virginia Tech will be the best nonconference win of any of the teams listed here. Also, Bama has a manageable schedule, avoiding Georgia and Florida and drawing LSU at home. Other potential stumbling blocks include a trip to Mississippi in three weeks and a season-closing road game with Auburn.
Next Games: 9/26 Arkansas, 10/3 @ Kentucky, 10/10 @ Mississippi

2. Mississippi (2-0): The Rebels have the easiest possible conference schedule as they miss Florida and Georgia and get LSU and Alabama at home. They'll get their first chance to prove themselves worthy of their top-five ranking this Thursday at South Carolina.
Next Games: 9/24 @ S. Carolina, 10/3 @ Vanderbilt, 10/10 Alabama

3. LSU (3-0): The Tigers' schedule is as dirty as the Ole Miss schedule is favorable. LSU travels to Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama and has a home tilt with Florida too. Just to get to 10-2 would probably include a road victory over a top five team.
Next Games: 9/26 @ Miss State, 10/3 @ Georgia, 10/10 Florida

Need Help:

1. California (3-0): The Golden Bears survived their biggest nonconference test with two late TDs to pull away from Minnesota and now start round robin Pac 10 play. The very good news is that Cal gets USC and Oregon State at home. Their scariest road game might be this weekend in Eugene. With Jahvid Best running the ball and a lot of good but not great conference foes ahead, expect Cal to stay near the top of the polls for a long time.
Next Games: 9/26 @ Oregon, 10/3 USC, 10/10 @ UCLA

2. Penn State (3-0): Texas fans complaining about our nonconference schedule should look to Happy Valley for familiarity-Akron, Syracuse, Temple, and Eastern Illinois (all at home). The Nittany Lions should easily be 7-0 when they travel to Michigan on 10/24. Their only other real test will come on November 7^th when they host Ohio State. With the potential of playing just two ranked teams all season, Penn State fans should be rooting hard for Cal and Texas losses.
Next Games: 9/26 Iowa, 10/3 at Illinois, 10/10 E. Illinios

Open Game Day Thread: Final Four

awiggo — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 22:00:28 -0000

For anyone who is around, post your game comments here.

#2 Michigan State vs. #1 Connecticut 5:07 pm

#3 Villanova vs. #1 North Carolina 30 minutes following first game's conclusion

Should be two great games with 70,000+ expected! I've got, close to home, Michigan State and the most talented team in college basketball, UNC.

Pro Player Day at the YMCA of Austin

awiggo — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:51:06 -0000

The YMCA of Austin will be hosting a Pro Player Day tomorrow--Saturday, April 4th--from 9 - 11:30 am. Cedric Benson, Limas Sweed, and Kasey Studdard will be on hand to sign autographs. Kids can also enjoy sports-related games and activities.

There is chance other former Longhorn stars will make surprise appearances.

Full disclosure--I am an employee of the YMCA and feel sort of bad about plugging this event. However, it is Longhorn related, will be fun for kids and for adults, and benefits a great cause. All proceeds go to the YMCA's Partner of Youth Campaign which raises money so that children and families in Austin can participate in YMCA programs when they cannot afford the full fee.

The event will be at the Southwest YMCA at 6219 Oakclaire in southwest Austin, just north of the 71/290 split. You can register in advance at any YMCA of Austin facility or just show up tomorrow morning.

2008-2009 Longhorns Good But Never Great

awiggo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 19:59:48 -0000

The Texas Longhorns are done for the season. But why? My first reaction at the end of last night’s game was the same as many of yours—blame the refs. We got robbed! Duke got all the calls, all the bounces, all the breaks, etc. Upon further reflection, whistles were not the reason that we lost in the second round to Duke. In fact, I thought the Duke loss was a near perfect manifestation of the entire season.

The same questions we had about this team before the season were never answered. The same warts that we saw in conference play appeared again in Greensboro. And the same players basically played the same way in the NCAA tournament that they had all season.

I don’t want this to be an overly negative post and I promise another post with all the positive things this team did over the course of the season. But I think it is important to single out the reasons why this Texas team was good but never great.

No Reliable Point Guard
Sure, Dogus Balbay came on late in the season and showed on many occasions that he could lead the team. But in pressure situations, the lack of true point guard who could pressure a defense with passing and scoring hurt the ‘Horns. How many times this year did you write in the comment section that you missed DJ Augustin? How many times did you and your fellow basketball lovers curiously question where this team would be had Augustin elected to stay another year? I know that I did plenty of times just as I did after TJ Ford left after his sophomore year.

Rick Barnes started the year with AJ Abrams at the point but that experiment was over before the team returned from Maui. Abrams could not create off the dribble for others and is much better in catch-and-shoot situations than firing off the dribble. Then, we put the ball in Justin Mason’s hands. This worked fine, for the most part, and Mason even filled up the stat sheet with five, six, and seven assist games against just a turnover or two for the better part of the middle of the season. But Mason’s defense began to slip and opponents began to figure out that Justin couldn’t hit the backboard, let alone sink a jumper, from more than 15 feet. So, the Mason era ended and Dogus Balbay took over.

Again, Texas fans were struck with instant positive results. Dogus is incredibly quick off the dribble, a remarkable athlete, and a more than capable passer with either hand. Unfortunately, Dogus was not a pass first-shoot second leader like he had been billed since his arrival in Austin. Balbay is a past-first, drive-second, pass-third, shoot-never point guard. As opponents figured out that Balbay had never seen one of his jumpers fall through the hoop, a one man zone became the defense of choice for Big XII opponents down the stretch. Never was this more apparent than at Oklahoma State when Terrel Harris began to double team Dexter Pittman in the post even when his man, Balbay, had the ball at the top of the key.

Our point guard by committee, like our team, was serviceable but never great. It could be argued that a fourth part of this committee was forced to emerge last night as Varez Ward more than earned his playing time with a gutty, attack the basket 16 point performance over and around the slower Duke defenders. I would remiss unless I pointed out that the need for Ward to assume the ball handling duties full-time would not have been needed if it wasn’t for the below average performance by Balbay. Take a look at his line last night: 32 minutes, 2 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assists and 4 turnovers. It is hard to be a dynamic offensive team when your point guard plays nearly the entire game and fails to record a single assist.

No Perimeter Shooting
Other than AJ, this team can’t shoot from outside the lane. Please don’t point out Damion James’ occasional three-pointer or Gary Johnson’s 16 foot jumper. Fool’s gold, both of them. Last night, Texas shot 3-of-12 from behind the arc. On the season, Texas shot 32.8% from three, good for 234th best in the country (Ken Pomeroy). Of 344 Division I teams, shot ranked 321st in the country in percentage of points scored from behind the arc. Texas got just 19% of all points from deep.

I am not advocating that Texas needed to be a three point shooting team. They did not. Before the season, the strength of this team appeared to be Dexter Pittman, Gary Johnson, Alexis Wangmene, and Damion James scoring in the paint. Texas did, however, need to present at least the threat of an outside shot so that those players wouldn’t be defended with two players before they got the ball and three players after.

Texas has never been a great team at feeding the post. To me, this is a weakness that has been present throughout the Rick Barnes era. This year, though, the problem wasn’t the skill of actually feeding the post as much as it was that there was little to no room to do so. If defenders aren’t worried about getting torched by perimeter jumpers, they naturally sag off the offensive player to both encourage long jump shots and to more easily eliminate driving angles. That is exactly what happened this season as defenses would have paid every Texas perimeter player, except AJ Abrams, to shoot jumps shots.

Shaky Free Throw Shooting
Texas shot 16-of-25 (64%) from the free throw stripe against Duke. Duke shot 21-of-27 (78%) from the free throw stripe against Texas. Also, the Longhorns were just 8-of-14 (57%) in the second half. Imagine how different this game would have been had Texas sank a few more free throws. Imagine how many close games would have gone differently had Texas not shot just 66.8% from the line as a team. Would we have won another conference game, finished alone in fourth in the Big XII, and maybe earned a better seed in the NCAAs? Maybe. We probably would have defeated Duke in their own backyard and been preparing for a rematch with Villanova as I write this. Regardless of how the calls went down the stretch, the team that took advantage of their trips to the line is still in the tournament while the team that left points at the stripe has been eliminated.

No Go-to Scorer
At one point early in the season, I wrote that we didn’t have a go-to scorer like Augustin, Durant, Tucker, or Ford. I questioned where Barnes would go in a final possession with the game on the line—AJ on the baseline or James in the high post or Dexter on the low block or our point guard of the evening off the dribble. I didn’t know then, and I still don’t know now.

Down two last night to Duke, Damion James called for, received, and shot a baseline three pointer that would have given Texas a one point lead with less than a minute to go. It was a good shot, but was it the best shot? Was a James jump shot our go-to-play? Abrams is certainly our most consistent and best shooter but he has been blanketed all of 2009 and cannot create his own shot. Dexter is an offensive force but can’t score unless he is somehow fed the ball. Balbay or Ward off the dribble are options as well. The point is that, unlike in previous seasons with a future NBA lottery pick in burnt orange, Texas lacked a go to player all season long.

Disappearance of Connor Atchley and Justin Mason
Did DJ Augustin really make that big a difference in the games of these two upperclassmen? Last night, Connor played six minutes, failed to score a single point in his final game as a Longhorn, and grabbed just one rebound. Justin Mason wasn’t much better (22 minutes, three points, one rebound, two assists, and two turnovers), and Barnes had so little confidence in him that he chose to leave Balbay in the game after moving Ward to the point, even though Dogus was not a threat to score at all.

Connor was in Austin for five years and has a remarkable junior season, but his regression this season was a big reason for the offensive stagnation, as were Mason’s struggles on both ends of the court.

All in all, this was a good but never great basketball team. The loss of Alexis Wangmene hurt on both ends, the inability to sink perimeter jump shots killed our offensive spacing, and the need to go small with three guards gave back some of our ability to rebound and defend at an elite level. As I wrote last night, I am proud of this team. They were certainly flawed in many areas but fought hard all season long and came within a bounce or two of the Sweet 16.

Future posts will look at the positives from the 2008-09 campaign, Damion James’ NBA decision, and in addition to the incoming freshman and Jai Lucas, what our existing players need to improve on to take this team back to the Final Four.

Texas Comes Up Short in Greensboro, Ends Season

awiggo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 03:58:33 -0000

#7 Texas fell, 74-69, to #2 Duke in the second round of the East Regional in a hard fought, entertaining, and even match up. The Blue Devils will move on to face #3 Villanova in the Sweet 16 in Boston, while the Texas Longhorns' season officially ends at 23-12.

The Longhorns were in it until the final minute despite 15 turnovers, shaky foul shooting, and a failure to exploit Duke in the post. It was not to be though. A great play by Jon Scheyer, mostly clutch free throw shooting by Duke, and some Blue Devil bounces all helped send Coach K's team to the next round.

There will be plenty of time for analysis of the season, a closer look at Damion James' NBA decision, and projections for next year's club.

However, use this thread for your post game thoughts and favorite memories of seniors AJ Abrams and Connor Atchley. I've said this many times throughout this season, this is an offensively limited club but also a team with real heart and plenty of character.

Despite the loss, I've never been prouder.