SB Nation User Blog: awiggo

Open Game Day Thread: Final Four

awiggo — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 22:00:28 -0000

For anyone who is around, post your game comments here.

#2 Michigan State vs. #1 Connecticut 5:07 pm

#3 Villanova vs. #1 North Carolina 30 minutes following first game's conclusion

Should be two great games with 70,000+ expected! I've got, close to home, Michigan State and the most talented team in college basketball, UNC.

Pro Player Day at the YMCA of Austin

awiggo — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:51:06 -0000

The YMCA of Austin will be hosting a Pro Player Day tomorrow--Saturday, April 4th--from 9 - 11:30 am. Cedric Benson, Limas Sweed, and Kasey Studdard will be on hand to sign autographs. Kids can also enjoy sports-related games and activities.

There is chance other former Longhorn stars will make surprise appearances.

Full disclosure--I am an employee of the YMCA and feel sort of bad about plugging this event. However, it is Longhorn related, will be fun for kids and for adults, and benefits a great cause. All proceeds go to the YMCA's Partner of Youth Campaign which raises money so that children and families in Austin can participate in YMCA programs when they cannot afford the full fee.

The event will be at the Southwest YMCA at 6219 Oakclaire in southwest Austin, just north of the 71/290 split. You can register in advance at any YMCA of Austin facility or just show up tomorrow morning.

2008-2009 Longhorns Good But Never Great

awiggo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 19:59:48 -0000

The Texas Longhorns are done for the season. But why? My first reaction at the end of last night’s game was the same as many of yours—blame the refs. We got robbed! Duke got all the calls, all the bounces, all the breaks, etc. Upon further reflection, whistles were not the reason that we lost in the second round to Duke. In fact, I thought the Duke loss was a near perfect manifestation of the entire season.

The same questions we had about this team before the season were never answered. The same warts that we saw in conference play appeared again in Greensboro. And the same players basically played the same way in the NCAA tournament that they had all season.

I don’t want this to be an overly negative post and I promise another post with all the positive things this team did over the course of the season. But I think it is important to single out the reasons why this Texas team was good but never great.

No Reliable Point Guard
Sure, Dogus Balbay came on late in the season and showed on many occasions that he could lead the team. But in pressure situations, the lack of true point guard who could pressure a defense with passing and scoring hurt the ‘Horns. How many times this year did you write in the comment section that you missed DJ Augustin? How many times did you and your fellow basketball lovers curiously question where this team would be had Augustin elected to stay another year? I know that I did plenty of times just as I did after TJ Ford left after his sophomore year.

Rick Barnes started the year with AJ Abrams at the point but that experiment was over before the team returned from Maui. Abrams could not create off the dribble for others and is much better in catch-and-shoot situations than firing off the dribble. Then, we put the ball in Justin Mason’s hands. This worked fine, for the most part, and Mason even filled up the stat sheet with five, six, and seven assist games against just a turnover or two for the better part of the middle of the season. But Mason’s defense began to slip and opponents began to figure out that Justin couldn’t hit the backboard, let alone sink a jumper, from more than 15 feet. So, the Mason era ended and Dogus Balbay took over.

Again, Texas fans were struck with instant positive results. Dogus is incredibly quick off the dribble, a remarkable athlete, and a more than capable passer with either hand. Unfortunately, Dogus was not a pass first-shoot second leader like he had been billed since his arrival in Austin. Balbay is a past-first, drive-second, pass-third, shoot-never point guard. As opponents figured out that Balbay had never seen one of his jumpers fall through the hoop, a one man zone became the defense of choice for Big XII opponents down the stretch. Never was this more apparent than at Oklahoma State when Terrel Harris began to double team Dexter Pittman in the post even when his man, Balbay, had the ball at the top of the key.

Our point guard by committee, like our team, was serviceable but never great. It could be argued that a fourth part of this committee was forced to emerge last night as Varez Ward more than earned his playing time with a gutty, attack the basket 16 point performance over and around the slower Duke defenders. I would remiss unless I pointed out that the need for Ward to assume the ball handling duties full-time would not have been needed if it wasn’t for the below average performance by Balbay. Take a look at his line last night: 32 minutes, 2 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assists and 4 turnovers. It is hard to be a dynamic offensive team when your point guard plays nearly the entire game and fails to record a single assist.

No Perimeter Shooting
Other than AJ, this team can’t shoot from outside the lane. Please don’t point out Damion James’ occasional three-pointer or Gary Johnson’s 16 foot jumper. Fool’s gold, both of them. Last night, Texas shot 3-of-12 from behind the arc. On the season, Texas shot 32.8% from three, good for 234th best in the country (Ken Pomeroy). Of 344 Division I teams, shot ranked 321st in the country in percentage of points scored from behind the arc. Texas got just 19% of all points from deep.

I am not advocating that Texas needed to be a three point shooting team. They did not. Before the season, the strength of this team appeared to be Dexter Pittman, Gary Johnson, Alexis Wangmene, and Damion James scoring in the paint. Texas did, however, need to present at least the threat of an outside shot so that those players wouldn’t be defended with two players before they got the ball and three players after.

Texas has never been a great team at feeding the post. To me, this is a weakness that has been present throughout the Rick Barnes era. This year, though, the problem wasn’t the skill of actually feeding the post as much as it was that there was little to no room to do so. If defenders aren’t worried about getting torched by perimeter jumpers, they naturally sag off the offensive player to both encourage long jump shots and to more easily eliminate driving angles. That is exactly what happened this season as defenses would have paid every Texas perimeter player, except AJ Abrams, to shoot jumps shots.

Shaky Free Throw Shooting
Texas shot 16-of-25 (64%) from the free throw stripe against Duke. Duke shot 21-of-27 (78%) from the free throw stripe against Texas. Also, the Longhorns were just 8-of-14 (57%) in the second half. Imagine how different this game would have been had Texas sank a few more free throws. Imagine how many close games would have gone differently had Texas not shot just 66.8% from the line as a team. Would we have won another conference game, finished alone in fourth in the Big XII, and maybe earned a better seed in the NCAAs? Maybe. We probably would have defeated Duke in their own backyard and been preparing for a rematch with Villanova as I write this. Regardless of how the calls went down the stretch, the team that took advantage of their trips to the line is still in the tournament while the team that left points at the stripe has been eliminated.

No Go-to Scorer
At one point early in the season, I wrote that we didn’t have a go-to scorer like Augustin, Durant, Tucker, or Ford. I questioned where Barnes would go in a final possession with the game on the line—AJ on the baseline or James in the high post or Dexter on the low block or our point guard of the evening off the dribble. I didn’t know then, and I still don’t know now.

Down two last night to Duke, Damion James called for, received, and shot a baseline three pointer that would have given Texas a one point lead with less than a minute to go. It was a good shot, but was it the best shot? Was a James jump shot our go-to-play? Abrams is certainly our most consistent and best shooter but he has been blanketed all of 2009 and cannot create his own shot. Dexter is an offensive force but can’t score unless he is somehow fed the ball. Balbay or Ward off the dribble are options as well. The point is that, unlike in previous seasons with a future NBA lottery pick in burnt orange, Texas lacked a go to player all season long.

Disappearance of Connor Atchley and Justin Mason
Did DJ Augustin really make that big a difference in the games of these two upperclassmen? Last night, Connor played six minutes, failed to score a single point in his final game as a Longhorn, and grabbed just one rebound. Justin Mason wasn’t much better (22 minutes, three points, one rebound, two assists, and two turnovers), and Barnes had so little confidence in him that he chose to leave Balbay in the game after moving Ward to the point, even though Dogus was not a threat to score at all.

Connor was in Austin for five years and has a remarkable junior season, but his regression this season was a big reason for the offensive stagnation, as were Mason’s struggles on both ends of the court.

All in all, this was a good but never great basketball team. The loss of Alexis Wangmene hurt on both ends, the inability to sink perimeter jump shots killed our offensive spacing, and the need to go small with three guards gave back some of our ability to rebound and defend at an elite level. As I wrote last night, I am proud of this team. They were certainly flawed in many areas but fought hard all season long and came within a bounce or two of the Sweet 16.

Future posts will look at the positives from the 2008-09 campaign, Damion James’ NBA decision, and in addition to the incoming freshman and Jai Lucas, what our existing players need to improve on to take this team back to the Final Four.

Texas Comes Up Short in Greensboro, Ends Season

awiggo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 03:58:33 -0000

#7 Texas fell, 74-69, to #2 Duke in the second round of the East Regional in a hard fought, entertaining, and even match up. The Blue Devils will move on to face #3 Villanova in the Sweet 16 in Boston, while the Texas Longhorns' season officially ends at 23-12.

The Longhorns were in it until the final minute despite 15 turnovers, shaky foul shooting, and a failure to exploit Duke in the post. It was not to be though. A great play by Jon Scheyer, mostly clutch free throw shooting by Duke, and some Blue Devil bounces all helped send Coach K's team to the next round.

There will be plenty of time for analysis of the season, a closer look at Damion James' NBA decision, and projections for next year's club.

However, use this thread for your post game thoughts and favorite memories of seniors AJ Abrams and Connor Atchley. I've said this many times throughout this season, this is an offensively limited club but also a team with real heart and plenty of character.

Despite the loss, I've never been prouder.

Bracket Breakdown: West

awiggo — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 03:36:43 -0000

Our tour of the bracket continues with the final regional, the West. (Previously: East Regional, South Regional, and Midwest Regional.

This region features two top seeds, Connecticut and Memphis. A solid argument could be made for either team landing on the top line, but the Committee went with the team who played a tougher schedule and finished tied for second in the Big East. It didn’t matter, though, as they were both destined for the same region as the Committee followed the S-curve for seeding—weakest number one seed with the highest rated number two seed.

Along with those two top seeds, the West features the Big XII tournament champion (Missouri), the Pac 10 regular season champion (Washington), and the Big 10 tournament champion (Purdue). After those five teams, the rest of the region is very average. A run by any team seeded six or above seems inprobable.

Scoring will be in short supply in Glendale if the top seeds advance to the Sweet 16. The top five seeds in the West all rank in the top 11 nationall in defensive efficiency.

WEST REGION EFFICIENCY BREAKDOWN

All data from Ken Pomeroy. Teams listed in order of best to worst within each category. Each team's national rank is listed in parentheses.

**West Region Adjusted Efficiencies**
Bracket Rank	Offensive Efficiency	Defensive Efficiency
1	Marquette (7)	Memphis (1)
2	California (12)	Connecticut (3)
3	Utah St (13)	Purdue (5)
4	Missouri (18)	Missouri (8)
5	Connecticut (19)	Washington (11)
6	BYU (21)	BYU (23)
7	Texas A&M (36)	Maryland (47)
8	Washington (37)	Marquette (56)
9	Memphis (38)	Miss St (58)
10	Purdue (52)	Cal St North (62)
11	Northern Iowa (58)	Texas A&M (79)
12	Maryland (72)	Cal (91)
13	Miss St (73)	Northern Iowa (128)
14	Cornell (81)	Cornell (146)
15	Chattanooga (132)	Utah St (171)
16	Cal St North (178)	Chattanooga (287)

WEST REGIONAL BREAKDOWN

Best First Round Match Up: (6) Marquette vs. (11) Utah State On paper this looks like a significant mismatch as Marquette features a top ten offense against Utah State’s 171st ranked defense. However, without Dominic James, Marquette has struggled mightily losing their last four regular season games and defeating only St. John’s in the Big East tournament before falling to Villanova. The WAC regular season and conference tournament champions have a chance to pull the upset.

Stone Cold Lock: (2) Memphis -20 over Cal State Northridge The Tigers have plenty of practice hammering inferior teams. Memphis’ top rated defense should have no trouble holding Cal State’s 132nd rated offense under 55 points.

The Game College Hoops Fans Should Hope Happens: (2) Memphis vs (3) Missouri Two elite defenses with athletes all over the floor could easily produce a 40 minute classic.

Sleeper: Purdue. As a complete non-believer in all Big 10 teams not named Michigan State, it is tough for me to place the Boilermakers in this category. But Purdue is hot, champions of the Big 10 tournament, has a lock down defense, and has a favorable draw. Washington is not a scary 4-seed and Connecticut without Jerome Dyson in Arizona is very beatable as well. A run to the Elite Eight is not out of the question.

BON NCAA Tournament Challenge

awiggo — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 13:04:31 -0000

BON NCAA Tournament Challenge

Time to test your skills and hope that your girlfriend who picks winners based on mascots and her favorite colors doesn't beat you.

Click on the link above to head to ESPN's Tournament Challenge. After creating your entry, join the group BON. The password is Horns. Good luck.

PB will be around later to promise cool prizes to the winner. One entry per person please.

BON NCAA Tournament Challenge

awiggo — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 16:35:55 -0000

BON NCAA Tournament Challenge

Time to test your skills and hope that your girlfriend who picks winners based on mascots and her favorite colors doesn't beat you.

Click on the link above to head to ESPN's Tournament Challenge. After creating your entry, join the group BON. The password is Horns. Good luck.

PB will be around later to promise cool prizes to the winner. One entry per person please.

Bursting Bubbles and Final NCAA Tournament Projections

awiggo — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 15:35:08 -0000

One final day of basketball before the bracket is announced at 5 pm (central) Sunday on CBS and on ESPN, just a few seconds later. Does anyone want a #1 seed? North Carolina, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Michigan State, and Oklahoma all lost in their conference tournaments. I can’t imagine all four #1s making it to the Final Four in Detroit, like they did last year. In fact, I’d be surprised if even three top seeds make it to the final two rounds.

Congratulations to Missouri, USC, Louisville and Memphis for winning conference championships in the Big 12, Pac 10, Big East, and Conference USA respectively. The ACC, SEC, and Big 10 titles will be decided this afternoon.

Here is my list of busted bubble teams. Say hello to the NIT. Another team will join this list if Mississippi State defeats Tennessee in the SEC tournament final. UPDATE: Add St. Mary's to the bubble bursting list, courtesy of Mississippi State's SEC tournament championship.

Big East: Providence, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Georgetown
ACC: Miami, Virginia Tech
Big Ten: Penn State, Northwestern
SEC: South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, Auburn
Pac 10: Arizona
Atlantic 10: Rhode Island, St. Joe’s
Mtn West: UNLV, New Mexico
C-USA: Tulsa, UAB
Missouri Valley: Creighton
West Coast: St Mary's

I agree with Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s Bracketologist, on 64 of 65 teams. I’ve got San Diego State in and Creighton out. He has the opposite.

Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament. I am assuming that Duke defeats ~~Maryland~~ Florida State.

No 1: Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Connecticut
No 2: Memphis, Duke, Michigan State, Oklahoma
No 3: Kansas, Missouri, Villanova, Wake Forest
No 4: Washington, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Florida State

Next Four: Xavier, Illinois, Arizona State, Purdue

Big 12 Bids (6)
Lock: Oklahoma (2 seed), Kansas (3), Missouri (3), Texas (7)
Likely: Oklahoma State (9), Texas A&M (9)
Bubble Burst: Kansas State, Baylor

Thoughts?

Texas Advances to Big XII Semifinals

awiggo — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 00:43:11 -0000

Survive and move on. Survive and move is definitely the name of the game in March, and Texas did exactly that this afternoon over the Kansas State Wildcats, 61-58. The Longhorns (22-10) may not have done a ton right in their rematch with Kansas State, but it doesn’t matter because Texas came out victorious. The ‘Horns march on to face Baylor, surprising winners in the first quarterfinal over top-seeded Kansas, in the first Big XII semifinal on Friday. Tip time 6 pm on the Big XII Network.

Good:

Dexter Pittman is putting on quite a show in Oklahoma City. A day after dominating the smaller Colorado frontline, Sexy Dex took it to the bigger Kansas State defenders just the same. He has been unguardable in two games thus far. Dexter went for 19 points and 20 rebounds in 34 minutes of action. He has been successful in gaining and holding excellent low post position while also showing good balance. And unlike the final regular season game at Kansas, Dexhas been able to finish most of his easy ones around the rim. If he’s got anything left in the tank, we could easily see more of the same against the undersized Baylor Bears.
Hat tip to Varez Ward. After spending most of the last couple of weeks in the Rick Barnes’ doghouse, Varez came up huge off the bench as AJ Abrams was forced to sit in foul trouble. Ward attacked the basket off the dribble, finished near the rim over taller defenders, and played solid on-the-ball defense as well. Ward scored a surprising nine points with three rebounds, two blocks, and an assist in his productive 19 minutes of play.
Smaller hat tip to Clint Chapman too. Chappy still plays soft too often but did come through with nine points, including a critical and one lay-up late in the game, a rebound, and a blocked shot in eight minutes.

Bad:

There were two areas in which Texas struggled the entire game: turnovers and protecting the defensive glass. The long, physical K State defense forced 22 Texas turnovers! And the more aggressive Wildcats also grabbed 20 offensive rebounds!! In most games, those two stats alone spell doom. However, behind Dexter in the post and because of some awful field goal shooting by Kansas State, Texas advanced.

There really was nothing pretty about today’s performance except for the final score. Survive and move on.

Post your own game thoughts here.

Box Score

Next Game: vs. Baylor Big XII Semifinals – 6 pm Friday, March 13 Big XII Network

My crashed computer is preventing further analysis. PB will be around this evening to preview the Baylor game.

NCAA Tournament Projections as of March 8th

awiggo — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 03:29:54 -0000

Conference season has ended for everyone and a few teams have already punched their tickets to the Dance. Congrats to Cornell (Ivy), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), Radford (Big South), and Morehead State (Ohio Valley). The remainder of the conference tournaments will all end this week with the bracket announcement at 5 pm on Sunday being the cherry on top of fantastic week of basketball.

The big conference tournaments are as follows:
Big East: Tuesday – Saturday (New York City)
Big XII: Wednesday – Saturday (Oklahoma City)
Pac 10: Wednesday – Saturday (Los Angeles)
SEC: Thursday – Sunday (Tampa)
Big 10: Thursday – Sunday (Indianapolis)
ACC: Thursday – Sunday (Atlanta)

Here is my list of bubble teams by conference. With the strong finishes by Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, the Big XII is in great shape to land six teams in the dance. A few losses by the teams listed below wouldn’t hurt either.

Big East: Providence, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Georgetown
ACC: Boston College, Maryland, Miami, Virginia Tech
Big Ten: Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan, Northwestern
SEC: Florida, Kentucky
Pac 10: Arizona, USC
Atlantic 10: Dayton, Rhode Island, Temple
Mtn West: UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State

Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament.

These are if the season ended today. They are listed by strength within each seed as well.

No. 1: Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Connecticut, Oklahoma
No 2: Michigan State, Louisville, Memphis, Duke
No 3: Wake Forest, Kansas, Washington, Villanova
No 4: UCLA, Xavier, Clemson, Missouri

Next Four: Syracuse, Gonzaga, Illinois, Marquette

Big 12 Bids (6)
Lock: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas
Likely: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Bubble: Kansas State

Thoughts?