SB Nation User Blog: azruavatar

Collecting Saber Research Articles

azruavatar — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 17:15:09 -0000

I can't tell you how many times I've googled for lineup protection in an attempt to find an article refuting it. I eventually bookmark things like that but I've always wished for a FAQ of those kinds of topics so that I'm not forced to do the leg work so often.

It's neither feasible nor advisable for one person to try and list these articles. You'd get omissions and a skewed perspective -- not to mention the prohibitive effort involved. I'm wondering if our community couldn't do it though. My thought process here is that someone posts in the comments "Hey, I'm wondering if there's any research on lineup protection" and then someone links to an appropriate article. Over time, the fanpost could be edited to start listing these types of links and grouping them so it's not a collosal cluster---k.

So I'll open this up to see what kind of esponse there is. If you have a quesiton about a certain topic post it. If you can answer a question answer but the goal should be to link to the original analysis of a topic. No question is too dumb as the whole goal is to make this a safe place to collect and answer even rudimentary saber answers to persistent or common questions.

(If this diary fails miserably after a week or so, I'll remove it. I'm not sure what other way to guage interest.)

********************************************

Player Evaluation

A Primer for Evaluating Pitching Talent (USSMariner)
A Primer for Evaluating Defense (USSMariner)
Player Evaluation Series (Justin Inaz)

Statistics Explained

tRA & tRA without numbers (Statcorner)
FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching (Hardball Times)
WAR - Wins Above Replacement (The BOOK)

Miscellaneous

Lineup Protection Debunked (Sabernomics)
Does a "hot streak" at the plate project future success? (The BOOK)
Starter to Reliever Conversion: When It Makes Sense and What to Expect (BP)

2009 Marcel Projections

azruavatar — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 13:12:25 -0000

2009 Marcel Projections

The marcel projections are so good that it's making me reconsider my subscription to BP. The difference between Marcel and PECOTA is something like the difference between an 81 and an 82-83 win team. It's marginal at best. If you know how to calculate WAR based off of wOBA or pitching ERA, then you are set. Plus, these are available at Fangraphs and are sortable.

Pricing Renteria

azruavatar — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 20:48:09 -0000

The idea of acquiring Edgar Renteria seems to be gaining traction this offseason with yet another article noting the Cardinals interest. Setting aside whether or not this is a good idea in and of itself (I'm inclined to think it's not), what is an appropriate price for Renteria.

To start, let's evaluate his offense. Last year was a disappointment after two consecutive years of posting wOBAs over the league average he fell collapsed posting his lowest wOBA in more than 5 years. Of course, we'd be derelict in just taking his numbers last year so we'll utilize the Marcel weights (5/4/3) and take three years into account. This makes a huge difference in the projection for Renteria since he had a superb 2007. This gives us a wOBA of .356. Assuming a league wOBA around .340 (not unreasonable looking over the last few years) that puts Renteria about 10 runs over average with the bat.

I'm going to cop out on the defense somewhat. Defensive projections are much more difficult to make (in part because of the larger error bars) so I'll turn to someone who a) is smarter than me and b) has already done the work. Chone Smith's defensive projections have Renteria as a -6 fielder next year. The one quibble I have here is that I'd prefer stats regressed to league average rather than the fans scouting report. I understand the reasons to do both but I'm just not sold on using the fans as a baseline for numerous reasons. I digress.

The positional adjustment for SS is .5 wins, which we then strip away for aging. So we're looking at Renteria as probably about 5 runs above average or (assuming NL replacement level) around 2 to 2.5 wins above replacement. You could also apply a playing time coefficient (80%) to that WAR as well.

After running through this exercise, that number seems awfully high to me. I'm inclined to believe that Renteria's skills have deteriorated to something more like 1 to 1.5 wins above replacement. If you take the former (just the numbers), he's worth between 8~10M on a one year basis. My valuation would have him more like a 4~6M dollar player for one year.

Good SS are obviously hard to come by as we've seen in recent seasons but if the Cardinals are going to buy, I'd rather they go all out and get a really good SS. Pay a good defensive SS (read: undervalued) and splurge on 2B or the reverse. An 8M dollar contract for Renteria strikes me as one the Cardinals would regret.

PMR for SS in 2008

azruavatar — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:21:10 -0000

PMR for SS in 2008

Now is a great time to brush up on PMR as it begins. If anyone has questions, there are plenty of commenters who know about the defensive metrics but I'd suggest reading up on Pinto's explanation of his own system to start.

Bonds Colluded Against?

azruavatar — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 20:43:39 -0000

The Players' Association seems to think so. They've delayed the filling of a grievance* but seem to have compiled evidence that owners were acting in concert against Bonds.

A lot of people jumped through some elaborate hoops to justify NOT A SINGLE TEAM signing a player who went .276/.480/.565 in 477 PAs last year. It's pretty remarkable, to me, that when teams who take back wife beaters (Phillies Brett Myers) or people who threaten their children's mothers (Nationals Elijah Dukes) everyone suddenly had a rash of conscience and decided that a player who has allegedly cheated using PEDs was unacceptable.

When the Cardinals were decrying the lack of an impact bat or someone to "provide protection" for Pujols that Bonds was too dirty for that. He was tainted in some pariah sort of way to make him untenable even on the cheap. They've got PED users on the team (and this has been hashed out previously on several occasions) but for some reason couldn't bring in Bonds.

Setting aside the Cardinals in specific, there's a sizable portion of crow** to be handed out for those people who contiued to believe that collusion was simply impossible to buy into.

*This smacks of cronyism to me. If you've got the goods, file the damn papers and quit scratching MLB's back.

** I've eaten my share on other topics *cough*Jason Schmidt*cough*

Statcorner

azruavatar — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 12:12:18 -0000

Statcorner

Be sure to stop by the site and read up on tRA, which is like FIP with batted ball considerations.

VEBegone

azruavatar — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 13:20:03 -0000

"O, Oysters, come and walk with us!"

The Walrus did beseech.

"A pleasant walk, a pleasant talk,

Along the briny beach:

We cannot do with more than four,

To give a hand to each."

Obviously, VEB is in for a bit of a change over the offseason. It's one that's healthy and natural in the course of blogdom. It's a demanding task that, while having many rewards, is arduous at times. Personally, I've found it surprisingly difficult to be original on a once-a-week basis. The fact that others can write about the same 25 players day in and day out is a testament to their abilities (or stubbornness). My thanks go to Larry as well for the opportunity to write at VEB -- even if my stamina here was merely a season, I enjoyed it very much.

The Walrus and the Carpenter

Walked on a mile or so,

And then they rested on a rock

Conveniently low:

And all the little Oysters stood

And waited in a row.

So without making that melodrama overly long, how 'bout them Dodgers? A part of me recognizes that it must feel pretty crappy to be a Cubs fan right now. They're not done yet but the walls are closing in. Since I'm not a Cubs fan, however, I'm looking for a good T-Shirt to commemorate their pending century of futility. Here's to many more!

"The time has come," the Walrus said,

"To talk of many things:

Of shoes—and ships—and sealing wax—

Of cabbages—and kings—

And why the sea is boiling hot—

And whether pigs have wings."

As I ride off into the sunset (can a robot ride a horse?), I've got a couple suggestions for the offseason. I'm not going to make outlandish trade proposals or even reasonable ones. Those types of happenings are very difficult to just guess at so I'll keep to in-house personnel but there's no shortage of story lines and decisions to make there.

1) Kyle McClellan to start: I discussed Kyle McClellan last week. With the signing of Lohse, I'm inclined to believe that it's even more important to make McClellan a starter. The Cardinals aren't in a good position to land another good starting pitcher with a multi-year deal given the holes in the middle infield that have to be addressed. I won't belabor this point but Kyle should be given the chance in Spring Training to prove that he can take the ball every 5th day.

2) Arb for Loop: Braden Looper appears to be a Type-B Free Agent. This is the simplest decision that Mozeliak will make the entire winter: offer him arbitration. The Cardinals need to avoid making too many multiyear deals with pitchers and they've just signed Lohse. Looper is in for a healthy payday on the market; the Cardinals shouldn't bet on a mid-30s pitcher when they don't have to. If Looper accepts arbitration, which is the risk that you take on when you offer it, that would be all for the better. He'd get $8-$10M and the Cardinals would get a safe one year deal. If he declines (far more likely), the Cardinals get a supplemental round pick. Getting as many early picks as you can is a good way to have a good draft. Plenty of talented players are still available in the supplemental round.

3) Pick 3 middle infielders, any 3 middle infielders. I'd love for the Cardinals to acquire Brian Roberts but I'm not going to hold my breath for something like that. The players readily available to them (Aaron Miles, Adam Kennedy, Cesar Izturis, Felipe Lopez, Brendan Ryan) offer a variety of offensive and defensive options. Let's just be clear though -- having four middle infielders on the roster IS BAD ROSTER CONSTRUCTION. These players are routinely the weakest hitters on a team so being able to use them as a pinch hitter offers less gain than having another outfielder or someone who can man the corners who can actually hit. The difference between any two of these players moving forward probably isn't more than 1 win. The players that can hit (Miles, Lopez) can't field. The players that can field (Izturis, Kennedy, Ryan) can't hit. Pick your poison and ditch two. Don't give any of them multi-year contracts if you can avoid it. these aren't the kind of players that deserve long-term commitments.

"But wait a bit," the Oysters cried,

"Before we have our chat;

For some of us are out of breath,

And all of us are fat!"

"No hurry!" said the Carpenter.

They thanked him much for that.

4) Trade some prospects but do it because it makes the team better. The meme that some in the media (namely Joe Strauss) have been consistently floating for the last month about the front office hoarding prospects or just trying to get prospects on publication lists (such as Baseball Prospectus or Baseball America) is crap. Strauss is a pretty good beat writer but he knows next to nothing about the farm system (as his comments on the radio routinely make clear). There isn't any player that's untouchable (not even Rasmus). The goal should always be value for value. No PR moves. No dumping players because TLR doesn't like their attitude. Value for Value.

But, if you do consider trading Rasmus this offseason, take a look at what Evan Longoria did this season. The Rays gave him the reins and let loose. Colby Rasmus is that caliber of player and while a rookie season such as Longoria's is never the expectation, Rasmus is one of the few prospects in the minors capable of putting up those types of numbers their first season.

5) Stop being loyal to a fault. If Izzy is willing to come back for a $2M base salary, sign him yesterday. It's worth taking a chance to see if he's healthy. If Chris Duncan is 100% and mashing the ball, play him on a regular basis. The system is good enough, however, at both RH relief and outfield that those players do not deserve extended looks. That is the doom of the Cardinals this year. The team -- be it Mozeliak or TLR -- is too scared to cut the cord when it comes to these players. Trust your farm system to supplement at these positions and don't waste more than 20 games if the players don't look like they've returned to health.

"It seems a shame," the Walrus said,

"To play them such a trick,

After we’ve brought them out so far,

And made them trot so quick!"

The Carpenter said nothing but

"The butter’s spread too thick!"

It's easy to prescribe some simple moves or decisions like above. The last bit of advice I have for the Cardinals could be more valuable than all the rest combined but has nothing to do with personnel decisions: Learn how to talk to the media and the fans. The Cardinals have two problems in this area: 1) medical issues and 2) LaRussa/Dave Duncan. The first isn't entirely their fault. The players have some sway in what the club can tell the populace and really whether the club has enough foreknowledge to address a small injury before it's a big one. That said, the rest of it is clearly the club's fault. They are borderline deceitful when releasing information to the public about injuries. Far more harm comes from injuries like Ankiel's that turn into something really bad than from letting other team's "know" how desperate you may or may not be. The club winds up looking like they are lying to their fans or are totally incompetent. The damage to the club-fan relationship is more important than another team knowing that Ankiel really is hurt. Find a way to correct this problem.

With regards to number two, send TLR/DD to a class or have them sit down with a politician. They need to find a way of either being straight without being condescending or sounding like they have a grudge. If they can't do that let them learn how to say nothing but offering equivocations (the politician). I'd rather they speak their mind but doing so without throwing players under a bus or demeaning them are skills they obviously don't have. Head back to PR 101 and figure out how to not start a s--tstorm every time you speak. Fans (and the internet) will always blow quotes out of proportion but there is no need to throw us a meatball pitch down the middle. We'll hit those out of the park every time.

"O Oysters," said the Carpenter,

"You had a pleasant run!

Shall we be trotting home again?"

But answer came there none—

And this was scarcely odd, because

They’d eaten every one.

~The Walrus and the Carpenter

by Lewis Carroll

Note: SBN 2.0 decided to try and destroy me this morning. If you've seen some wacky formatting, apologies. I had to break out my brute force HTML skills for some jenky fixes in the background. All should be well now. Victory is mine. [/kicks SBN server] [/rides off into sunset]

Cinci @ St.Lou

azruavatar — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 22:37:56 -0000

I only got to catch a little bit of Johnny Mozeliak on 1380 this afternoon but there were a few interesting tidbits that I caught (in between the softball questions Bernie and his co-host were asking):

1) Guess who most often came up in trade requests at the deadline. Rasmus? Nope. Perez? Nope. Izturis? I kid. The name most often mentioned was Jason Motte. Kudos to Mo for not biting on a veteran player that probably wouldn't have been much better than Motte.

2). David Freese got some extended airtime. He'll be playing winter ball and there were some questions about what the organizations were given Glaus and Wallace fast approaching. What I found odd about the conversation is that the club lost a 3rd baseman in the middle there. How about a player that hit .312/.370/.530 last year at A+ and .304/.374/.494 at AA this year? I'm talking about Allen Craig of course. Personally, I think winter ball is something of a showcase for Freese who the Cardinals could move without skipping a beat.

As far as the big league club goes there was some hemming and hawing about injuries and what players may come back next year. Truthfully the only storylines that have any play for me over these last three games are 1) the batting title (Chipper Jones has a sizable but not insurmountable lead) w/ just three games left and 2) the Cardinals HR lead (Ludwick-36 Pujols-35) which Pujols has won ever year he's been on the team.

Three games left. Enjoy them while they last.

Kyle McLooper

azruavatar — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 03:58:32 -0000

The free agent market isn't a vaccuum. Pick a pitcher, any pitcher, and odds are good that this offseason they'll have multiple suitors. It's not often that a Kyle Lohse falls into your lap on a one-year deal. If you look around the league at what each team needs, probably 75% of the teams will say starting pitching. It's not just that teams are looking to upgrade their starting pitching it's that teams need warm bodies to fill rotation spots and buffer against injuries. Making an upgrade would be great but simply having enough arms is a problem for a good many teams. That's how pitchers like Ross Olendorf can get 4 starts.

There's a strong sentiment in the fan base that the Cardinals should dive head first into the free agent pool this offseason to shore up the rotation. With Wainwright, Wellemeyer and Pineiro under contract there's at least 2 open spots in the rotation. Given the opportunity, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cardinals attempt to unload Pineiro during the offseason if they have sufficient depth. The list of good free agent starters isn't necessarily a long one and with questions surrounding Carpenter and Wellemeyer's durability, it would be nice to add three starting pitchers this offseason.

This is part of the reason Jaime Garcia's Tommy John surgery is so detrimental to the club. It's not that anyone expected Garcia to step in and be a #2 caliber starting pitcher. It's that he offered a young pitcher who could simply be in the rotation and not be terrible. It'd be great if he matured quickly but that wasn't really a necessity. Taking the ball every 5 days would have been more than enough to start. The depth in AAA just isn't quite there yet. Mitchell Boggs and Jess Todd don't fit the typical starter profile (limited repertoire & small body size respectively). Clayton Mortensen was rushed through the system and struggled greatly at AAA. PJ Walters stuff is questionable at the major league level. Then there's several fringy players in Mike Parisi and Brad Thompson. Just not a lot to see yet.

Even if the Cardinals want to acquire a pitcher like AJ Burnett, there's the question of whether a) they're willing to pay top dollar and b) if another team is willing to overpay that. Leading me to the crux of the problem. The Cardinals need to develop a starting pitcher next year. They simply don't have the money (or a monopoly )to sign 3 decent starting pitchers. They need another internal arm to fill a spot. Kyle McClellan is that arm.

There will be quotes over the winter that some in the front office like McClellan out of the bullpen. That he's "proven" he can handle that role and potentially be exceptional at it. Doesn't matter. Many of the same arguments that applied to Wainwright's return from a hand injury apply to McClellan here. Simply because he's succeeded in a role in the past doesn't mean that a) he can't succeed in a different role, b) he'll necessarily succeed in that same role in the future and c) that organizational needs haven't shifted to a different area.

It seems like this needs to be beaten home when we hear talk about acquiring a reliever this offseason. Short of retaining players like Springer or Isringhausen the Cardinals have upwards of 7 in house right handed relievers heading into next season. That's not where they're lacking. Taking Kyle McClellan and seeing if he can start at the major league level is a much better use of resources. The marginal gain is much greater for the club if he can succeed as a starter.

He fits a starter mold. He's got 4 pitches: fastball, changeup, slider and curveball. He'll throw his fastball for a couple different speeds/breaks so potentially even more than that. The arsenal is there. You'd expect the fastball speed to lose 2-3 mph but he'd still be hovering in the 90mph area -- a nice marker for an average fastball speed for a starting pitcher. He's got a durable build through the trunk.

The obvious question is whether his arm can sustain 200 innings. He's already had one surgery and he's worn down at the end of this season. The stress on a reliever's arm (max effort delivery, throwing on repeat days) is different than that of a starter so 2008 may not be indicative of an inability to log a starter's innings. It's a question that the team has to answer -- or risk. Even if they expect him to get hurt by mid-2009 if he starts, it's possible that those innings will buy the AAA starters enough time to emerge and take the reins.

The Cardinals converted a reliver to full time starter in 2007 (Looper) and 2008 (Wellemeyer). All signs would point to a need to do so again in 2009. It's not about being cheap -- it's about utilizing resources at hand when the demand outpaces the supply in the market.

Cardinals @ Cubs 1:20pm

azruavatar — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 12:38:40 -0000

Chances are good that the Cubs -- whose magic number is 2 -- will clinch against the Cardinals during this series. That's going to be a hard celebration to stomach so I would suggest bracing yourself (or stocking up on the Franklins).

Wainwright vs. Zambrano this afternoon. Maybe the no-hitter sapped Big Z and we'll just knock him around. Maybe...