After perusing my favorite annual issue of Baseball America "The Draft Preview", I have started to narrow down who I really want to draft in this year's mock as the Scouting Director for the Cardinals.

I've also heard from a number of Cardinal fans on my two previous MOD's and it appears that a lot of them have specific desires for their team that match up quite well with what I have in mind for the draft.

The organization seems to be thin on shortstops, catchers and left handed pitchers. A couple of players that fit in that mold should be available in the first three rounds of the mock as well as real life draft to satisfy Cardinal fans.

For pick number 19, I have zeroed in on Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State; Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi State; and Corey Seager, 3B, from an NC high school. Heaney and Stratton are both players who could definitely move through the system quickly as starting pitchers and become staples of the middle of the Cardinal rotation for years to come. And although it will take more time to mature, Seager profiles as a big bat, left handed power hitter who could rise quickly through the minor leagues and move David Freese to the OF by 2015 or 2016.

For pick number 23 I am keeping my eyes on Richie Schaffer, 3B, Clemson; a player who could facilitate that Freese move to the OF much sooner. Another big power 3b prospect who could move through the system quickly. And I also have an eye on 2 HS arms in Ty Hensley, RHP, from Oklahoma; and LHP Matt Smoral from Ohio. Both players will definitely take some maturity to develop but have a starters arsenal with top of the rotation ceilings.

One notable absence from this list is a player that a lot of Cardinal fans covet, C Stryker Trahan. And as much as I would love to take him with the 23rd pick, I think he profiles much better as a Wil Myers type who will have to convert to RF in pro ball. A player who I feel is more suited to stay at C is Steve Bean from a HS in Texas. Has a good bat, good defensively and if taken near the end of the supplemental round will not be a second class pick, and will have the suitable time to mature when Yadier Molina is ready to retire or move on after his contract ends.

As for shortstops, I feel that the class of players falls off significantly after Carlos Correa and none of the higher regarded players really stand out as more valuable than some of the players who I already have in mind. I'm not really turned on by Marrero at all and Addison Russell only seems like an average type of player at his ceiling. When the time comes for this team to find a SS, it most likely wont come from this draft or the farm system, but from the Free Agent ranks.

After my first MOD,it appears as though most Cardinal fans are looking for the team to draft a high risk, high upside type of player in the draft this year given that the current farm system is pretty loaded and the big league club is stacked as well.

Shortstop and catcher seem to be the most pressing desire, and the ever present pitching (a left hander in particular). One of the most popular choices among respondents to the first MOD is SS Deven Marrero of ASU, but I just dont think he is going to be available at the Cards' first pick at #19. I love the defense, but his bat has not impressed this year so far, and there is a chance he has a little bit of the Colby Rasmus type of attitude in him. He is a guy I would like to consider. A more realistic pick at SS might be Addison Russell at #23 if available.

Another strong favorite is C Stryker Trahan, and he could be available at #19 and would be a player I really like. If not available, a player like Pete O'Brien should be available in one of the supplemental first rounders, The HS catcher is a better pursuit because of Yadier Molina's 5 year contract extension, and a college guy like O'Brien may have to ride the pine for 2 years before getting some playing time. A HS catcher can be given time to mature in the minor leagues and only have to back up for a year before starting. As is the case with a lot of bigger market clubs with strong farm systems, good prospects who are blocked can always be traded away for needed pieces in the middle of playoff hunts, so I would'nt be afraid of taking a college catcher, or even 3B like Steven Piscotty (Jim Callis' pick in his first Mock Draft for the Cards over at Baseball America). I am not particularly enthralled with Piscotty, but if he were the best available at #19 or #23 would not hesitate to take him. Callis, by the way also has the Cards taking Clemson 3B Richie Shaffer, so he must be incredibly low on David Freese's future.

The last big need/desire is for a left handed arm. At both of the Cards first round picks, a few players like Andrew Heany and Matt Smoral will definitely be available and it will simply come down to whether or not they are the best choices at that particular pick.

Coming into the 2nd week of this process the guys I have been circling around are still players like Ty Hensley, Trey Williams, Courtney Hawkins, Tyler Naquin, Andrew Heaney, Stryker Trahan, Addison Russell, Matt Smoral, Joey Gallo (as a pitcher), and Luke Sims.

The great thing about this years draft for the Cardinals and their fans is that they have tons of picks to play with this year and can balance time to mature, need and signability, so there is plenty of picks to go around and get a little bit of what they need.

This will be my 4th consecutive season as a MiLB Mock Draft SD. The previous 3 were as the Brewer SD, where I made the following drafts:

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2011/6/6/2209009/sickels-mock-draft-recap

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/6/5/1503132/community-mock-draft-commentary-nl

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2009/6/6/901151/mock-draft-brewer-selections

This year the Cards have the 19th pick in the first round as a result of losing Albert Pujols to the Angels, the 23rd pick in the first round, a supplemental first round pick, and then the 23rd pick in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds. IN all they will have the 19th pick, the 23rd pick, the 36th pick, the 52nd pick, the 59th pick, 86th pick and 117th pick.

The system is right now a top 10 system in the game, and given the fact that they are odds on favorites to win the NL Central this year, seven picks in the top 125 picks should make the rest of the division play for 2nd place for the next 7 to 8 years, let alone the rest of the league wonder how many games they will lose to the Cards on their pennant steamroll. They have the makings of a dynasty with the current talent on the field, current farm system, and bounty of picks in this years draft.

The Cardinals love to take projectable HS arms, and safe college bats. This year's draft will offer plenty of both for them to draft.

The new CBA shouldnt affect the Cardinals all that much in that they are not very big spenders on draft day, and even if they were, the market and ownership group most likely will not have an aversion to paying an over cap tax for signing high quality draft talent, as they can afford it.

This is a list of players I would consider taking in the Mock for the Cardinals:

Stephen Piscotty, 3B, Stanford

Tyler Naquin, RF, Texas A & M

Ty Hensley, RHP, Oklahoma HS

Peter O'Brien, C, Miami

Hunter Virant, LHP, California HS

Adam Brett Walker, 1B, Jacksonville

Mitchell Traver, RHP, Texas HS

Stephen Johnson, RHP, Texas D2 school

Jameis Winston, CF, Alabama HS

Would love to hear what Cardinal fans and draft fans think is the best course of action to take in this draft.

Hi everyone. I just wanted to let you all know that I have signed up to be the St. Louis Cardinals Scouting Director over at John Sickels' Minor League Ball site on SB Nation for the annual Mock Draft. The Cardinals have the 19th and 23rd picks in the first round and will have the 19th pick in the 2nd and 3rd rounds as well as a sandwich pick for the loss of Albert Pujols.

For the past 3 years I served as Scouting Director for the Mock for the Brewers, and this year wanted to try a new team.

Looking at the Cardinals' Farm System, I notice that they like to sign "safe" college bats in early rounds, and projectible HS arms, as well as do a very good job in the International market. They have a very solid system right now with guys like Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Oscar Taveras, and safe, league average types in guys like Zack Cox, and Kolten Wong, and some more raw talents like Jordan Swagerty and Tyrell Jenkins.

Cost hasnt ever seemed to be an issue for the Cardinals in the draft, but they have also normally been in a pretty low to middle spot in the rounds where huge signing bonus problems may be an issue. The new CBA probably limits all of the teams, but shouldnt hurt the Cardinals' philosophy.

I will post more on this on subsequent Fan Posts and will have open threads over at Minor league ball as well. My philosophy for the Mock, held on Saturday, May 26 at noon Central, will be to go for best player available. Guys I will be keeping an eye on are Courtney Hawkins, a HS pitcher with a big power bat as well, Steven Piscotty, 3B, Stanford, Tyler Naquin, RF, Texas A&M (possible Rasmus comp without the attitude issues), Lance McCullers, a HS fireballer poised for a closers role, and Ty Hensley, another HS pitcher, among others.

As a side note, I have personally worked as a scout for multiple Major League teams over a 20 year stretch, and have done some data analysis for a couple of area scouts the past 4 or 5 years in preparation for the draft.

I look forward to any input you may have about who you would like the Cards to draft this year. I will most likely be putting up polls as well to guage the interest in certian players for this years draft.

According to reports in the Cincinnati Inquirer yesterday, the Reds and the agent for Brandon Phillips were perhaps in contact regarding a contract extension.

My main question is: If you are in the Reds front office, why would you even be considering a move like this?

Phillips is going to make $12.5 million this year, and if an extension is given Brandon himself has even stated that there is no guarantee of a hometown discount being applied. This would imply that any deal he may be seeking would be more in the $13 to $15 million per year range.

Baseball Prospectus projects Phillips to post a 1.9 WAR this season, with slightly below average defense and a 23 HR, .277/.326/.443 slash line. If this were held true, the Reds would be overpaying for his services.

Next year, Phillips will be 32 years old, and his projections go down hill from there. Even if you were to extend him to the point that he becomes a replacement player (age 35 season according to BP) that would mean a 3 year extension at about 3/25-26. This isnt necessarily a bad amount to pay a slightly below average player, but for a small market team like the Reds, the money is probably spent better some place else. Phillips would never accept a deal like this anyway.

Phillips' closest comp according to Baseball Reference is Bobby Grich. Grich actually had 3 really good seasons in his age 32 through 35 seasons, but the big difference between the two was that Grich was an outstanding defender, and he got on base at a very good clip. I would not expect Phillips to repeat the numbers that Grich put up in those seasons past his prime.

Phillips has had a very nice career with the Reds, 3 Gold Gloves, a couple of all star appearances, and has been a valuable part of the rebuild that went on in the late 2000's, but when the season ends, it is probably in the best interest of the organization to move on.

The team will still most likely be in contender mode next season with Joey Votto and Mat Latos still on the roster, but a suitable place holder for 2B can most likely be found in Tood Frazier or among the Free Agent ranks until Billy Hamilton is ready for the 2015 season.

Pundits have been keeping an eye out, and warning fans of other NL East teams about the pending Washington Nationals wave that should be sweeping over the division for about a year now. They mostly point toward a GM who has vast experience in the game in Mike Rizzo, who isnt afraid to negotiate with the infamous "Scott Boras client" in both the draft and free agent maket; they point to the success (or lacktherof depending on point of view) that has allowed the Nats to make very good draft picks over the past 4 or 5 seasons; and the crowning jewel in this warning to Phillie and Brave and Met fans about the not so much laughingstock anymore Nationals, is that they have an ownership group in place that isnt afraid to go and spend money to get what the teams needs to contend, as evidenced by the Jason Werth signing last off season.

I have posted on your site a few times over the years, most notably when your team was playing the Brewers, and also since I visited Nationals Park a few years back and loved the experience. This current Nationals team should be a joy to watch, a lot of fun to see the young players mature further, and hopefully bring the first playoff appearance to the franchise since the Montreal Expos made a strike shortened playoff appearance in was it 1981?

I am a big fan of the website Baseball Prospectus, and purchase their annual preview publication every year and then tweak things a bit to make predictions for the upcoming year. BP uses a projection system called PECOTA, which does monumental things with math that I have very little comprehension of. But it has served me well over the years, and I enjoy reading the review, and the contributors have a very good track record of Saber-success. The tweaks that I make to the system simply put more weight on a teams outcomes (for the entire season) on starting pitching.

I have been doing this for about 5 seasons now, and have been quite successful. As a side note, Brewer fans will probably forever chide me since I predicted that they would win 88 games last year and yet won 96. I wont feel too bad about that projection since I had been on average too optimistic on the team, so a correction was probaby in order. Add to the fact that the teams Pythagorean W-L record was only 90-72, makes me feel even less unreliable. In past projections, I almost was right on the 2009 San Francisco Giants winning the Wild Card while everyone else had them finishing in last place, and the following year had the Padres doing the same (they missed by one game).

Without further adieu, here are my 2012 National League Projections:

Division Winners

1. Philadelphia Phillies 90 wins (true talent level)
2. San Francisco Giants 90
3. St. Louis Cardinals 88

No surprises in these three teams as the pick for winning their respective divisions. The Phillies still have the best pitching staff in all of baseball, so much so, in fact, that they could almost field an entire team of replacement level players apart from the pitchers, and probably still finish in first place. The most surprising thing about that could be that both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are in their mid 30s now and show no signs of letting up. The Giants have great pitching as well, and with a full season's worth of good health from Buster Posey, they should re-claim that NL West crown. The closest race between 1st and 2nd place lands in the NL Central, where Adam Wainwrights return in addition to a full season of David Freese, and newly acquired Carlos Beltran should pave the way for another Cardinal playoff run. The big question mark for them will be health and age of their stars.

The Wild Card Teams

1. Washington Nationals 88 wins
2. Los Angeles Dodgers 87

It shouldnt be that surprising to fans who follow the Nationals that this team is ready to win now, and is poised to do so for the next 5 or 6 years. A full season's worth of Steven Strasburg should put the Nats in great shape to contend not only for the division title, but makes them the best Wild Card team this season. A Strasburg Cy Young candidacy isnt out of the question either. Add to it the possible promotion of Bryce Harper at some point, the two Zimmerman's and Gio Gonzalez, and a bevy of young stars who should get better as time goes on makes this team my favorite to watch this year. In deference to my own projection system, I was burned wildly by the Dodgers last year. Bad seasons from Rafeal Furcal, Ted Lilly, Andre Ethier and Chad Billingsley helped to make me look really silly with an 88 win projection for the Dodgers last year, so I am going to be a bit tepid about this one, since the projection relies very heavily on Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.

The Contenders

1. Atlanta Braves 87 wins
2. Milwaukee Brewers 87
3. Arizona Diamondbacks 87
4. Miami Marlins 86
5. Cincinnati Reds 84

Of the 3 teams grouped together at 87 wins, all of them have starting pitchign staffs that measure up well against one aonther. This would include the Dodgers, although their rotation is a bit more top heavy than the other staffs. The key for the Braves will be keeping their pitchers healthy, a nice rookie year from Julio Teheran, and a bounce back from Jason Heyward. One big question mark for them will be how healthy Chipper Jones can stay all year, and how much he can contribute. The Brewers also have a very nice starting rotation with Zack Grienke and Yovanni Gallardo at the top, but the bottom of the rotation is very questionnable. The departure of Prince Fielder will make it difficult for the Brewers to replace those runs, but they did a nice job of gaining back some of that ground by signing Aramis Ramirez to play 3B, but a lot of weight is going to be placed on rookie Mat Gamel's back as the First Baseman. The Diamondbacks finished somewhere near 10 games above their Pythagorean W-L record last year, but they had very solid performances from guys like Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and Justin Upton. The addition of Trevor Cahill and the improvement of the players listed previously will keep them in the hunt in the NL West. If the Marlins had been able to lure one of the players that "slipped away" from them during the winter meetings (Albert Pujols, CJ Wilson, or even Prince Fielder) they would be considered strong contenders for the NL East title. Hanley Ramirez needs to regain his pre-2011 form and Jose Reyes needs to stay healthy all season long for them to make noise. A full season of Josh Johnson helps that along as well. And the Cincinnati Reds acquisition of Mat Latos really pushed them up into contention mode after their disappointing 2011 season. Their big problem is that they are probably a pitcher short and need at least 120 games or so from Scott Rolen. They will be a fun team to watch, but probably just dont have enough to make the playoffs this year.

Playing for a nice Draft Pick

1. Colorado Rockies 80 wins
2. Chicago Cubs 80
3. San Diego Padres 78
4. Pittsburgh Pirates 77
5. New York Mets 76
6. Houston Astros 65

The Rockies have Troy Tulowitzki and bunch of really young pitchers on their team. This would be a huge expectation for them to condend this year. The Cubs are admittedly in full scale re-build mode, and this true talent number probably drops off of a cliff as July approaches and guys like Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, and even Geovanny Soto are dealt to contenders for prospects. The Padres have a very nice farm system, but their best non pitcher is (one of my favorite players) a defense first CF in Cameron Maybin, whose only big time value would come if he learned to lay off of pitches outside of the strike zone. The Pirates have 5 or 6 really big time prospects in their system, and one of the most exciting young players in Andrew McCutchen, but it looks like another in a long line of losing seasons for this once very successful franchise. The Mets. Ugh. They are in really bad shape, still a few bad contracts left in guys like David Wright, Johan Santana and Jason Bay, and nothing really spectacular on the horizon. And even though the Astros should again be quite pathetic this year, they have a lot more to look forward to than the Mets, with nice prospects in Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton.

All of the Win numbers above are true talent level, and of course teams rarely play at their true talent level. Trades always occur, players get hurt, and teams get lucky and find themselves in the playoffs.

I plan on watching a lot of Nats games this year on my MLB package on cable, and have confidence in their ability to possibly even win the division this year, but you guys should start expecting this team to go far, and hopefully they can fill that beautiful stadium on a regular basis.

So John has finished his preliminary rankings of the farm systems, and as he has gone along, I have kept track of the number of A, A-, B+, etc each system has had. Once all of the systems were finished, I then gave a numerical value to each grade, and added it up for each team. Here are the results, including the "others receiving consideration" players:

Continue reading this post »

After reading SRB's post about the SS/3B issue this season, I got to thinking about this "Let's trade Randy Wolf for salary relief" statement that has come up quite often this season.

As it stands right now, the consensus is pretty much that the Brewers have about $10 million to spend this offseason in order to improve the 1B, SS, 3B and relief pitching situation.  Maybe a tad bit more could be spent depending on how much Mark Attanatsio may want to increase payroll based on last season's playoff revenues.

Randy Wolf is scheduled to earn $9.5 million in 2012 and there is a $1.5 million buyout on his contract for the 2013 season that no team in MLB is going to pay.  His performance as a Brewer has been less than expected despite the fact he has "eaten innings" and "holds his own" from the #4 spot in the rotation.  He put up a 1.4 WAR last season, and I would project him to produce at about a 1.9 WAR season this year.

At the most optimistic, you could project him for a 2.5 WAR season, but this would be a stretch considering his performance to date as a Brewer.

And with new draft compensation rules in place as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, nothing can be expected as far as draft compensation goes for him for the 2013 draft. 

So his value is not all that good.  With the most optimistic of projections, he would have A) a surplus value of $250,000 (with a 2.5 WAR expectation), more conservatively he would have a negative surplus value of around $2.4 million (1.9 WAR expectation), and even worse if he repeats what he did last season. Even if you factor in a "veteran pitcher" premium for a team desperate for starting rotation help, his value is very marginal.

This all means that the Brewers wind up swallowing at least half of that salary remaining in order to get more than a bag of balls in return for him.  This also lessens the salary relief the team might get from getting him off of the payroll.

So lets assume that in a perfect world (remember that we do not live in a perfect world) the Brewers trade Wolf while still having to pick up at least half of the $11 million guaranteed remaining on his contract.  That gives the team now $15.5 million to spend on upgrades for the coming season, while also creating a hole in the starting rotation.  This scenario would allow you to obtain some teams pitching prospect that doesnt land in the Baseball America Top 100, but that still is in that teams top 10 prospects (i.e. its not an impact arm.

The big point of this is that although it was never really a wise move putting that much money on a guy like Wolf, and it doesn't help much that you have to over pay the guy for a #4 starting pitcher, its probably the best move to just hang onto him, because it still doesnt really free up enough money to significantly upgrade at 1B, 3B or SS, and the production from him is probably more predictable than from Marco Estrada or some teams less that impact level prospect, and as it was at this time last year, that 2 wins he is expected to add could make all the difference for the 2012 Brewers.

Link not availble yet on BA website, but received my print copy today.

1. Wily Peralta, RHP, #3 Starter type with potential to even be a #2.

2. Taylor Jungmann, RHP, probably starts at High Class A, could move quickly through system, #3 starter with chance
as a #2.

3. Jed Bradley, LHP, same profile as Jungmann except left handed.

4. Tyler Thornburg, RHP, promotion to AA, profiles as a #3 starter or late inning reliever.

5. Scotter Gennett, 2b, profiles as a offense minded utiity player, or starter for a 2nd division type of team.

6. Logan Schafer, CF, useful 4th OF or starter on a lower division team.

7. Cody Scarpetta, RHP, bottom of the rotation starter, will spend year in AAA with 4th option awarded.

8. Taylor Green, 3B, about average defender at 3B and could be opening day starter depending on Spring Training.  Profiles as a lower division every day third baseman.

9. Jorge Lopez, RHP, very raw with #3 starter potential.  Will open season at Helena.

10. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, bottom of the rotation starter who needs to refine command and control.  will open the season at high class A.

Last week Dave Cameron of fangraphs speculated that the Giants could trade Tim Lincecum this offseason in an attempt to gain some big time salary relief, allowing them to sign a couple of big time offensive free agents (e.g. Jose Reyes and /or Carlos Beltran, as well as receiving a key prospect such as Jesus Montero in a trade.

The thought went something along the lines of: Yankees and Red Sox need pitching help, Giants are at the limit of their payroll, Tim Lincecum is getting more expensive every year, and the team desperately needs offense to compete....

Lincecum has an approximate surplus value of $20 million, he has two years of arbitration left. Despite big arbitration contract awards, he probably still projects as a 5 WAR type of pitcher; Add to it that the Free Agent pool of starting pitchers is extremely thin, the Yankees or Sawx might be willing to overpay for the privilege to acquire the former 2 time Cy Young Award winner. Part of Cameron's assumption also included the Giants sending Aubrey Huff and his albatross contract to whoever acquires Lincecum, freeing up around $25 million worth of salary space for the Giants to then go and pick up a Prince Fielder or Jose Reyes type. Lincecum's production would be difficult to replace, but if you are able to pick up Montero and Reyes or Betances/Nunez/Sanchez and Fielder are both moves that improve the Giants.

The reason this type of move is being speculated is because the Giants are unwilling to go above the $125 million payroll mark. Trading Lincecum could free the space needed on the payroll, improve the team going forward and Giants fans would most likely continue to sell out all of its home games, sell merchandise, and keep them competitive for the next 4 to 5 years even without one of its marquee players on the team any longer. But the team could also just go over their self imposed payroll limit, sign a Fielder or Reyes type and absorb the cost once Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand and Aubrey Huff's contracts come off of the books in 2014. It would be a couple of years of financial sorrow for the sake of winning. But the case with the Milwaukee Brewers, nothing like that of the Giants is completely different.

If premium pitching is so scarce this off-season, then why arent thoughts like this being presented with the Brewers and Zack Greinke?

The Brewers need to remain financially prudent to both compete and survive. Being in the smallest market in major league baseball, the 3 million fans they have drawn 3 of the past 4 years most likely only produced one profitable year for the organization (that being this year, were two playoff series generated a ton of income for the franchise). Not only do the Brewers have the small market problems that the Giants or Yankees or Red Sox do not, they also have a roster that was built for an "all in" type of season in 2011, and though they still should compete in 2012, is designed more for driving off of a cliff after this season.

Zack Greinke is set to make $13.5 million in 2012, after which point he will become a free agent. The going rate for him is probably a bit above the 5/$85 contract that Jered Weaver signed this past season with the Angels. Greinke could sign a contract like this, but he would be leaving around $30 million on the table compared with what he could probably get in free agency. And even if Greinke did agree to a contract like this, the team has $40 million committed to only 4 players going forward in 2013. I doubt they would like to go 5 players $55 million.

Moving Greinke frees up $13.5 million of payroll space and replacing him may not be as difficult as it may seem. They could make one of the following trades, then sign Edwin Jackson to a 4/$40 million type of deal and use remaining funds to shore up other weaknesses. The Brewers will need a new First Baseman with Prince Fielder’s departure via Free Agency, and they need a SS and 3B as well.

The following is a list of possible suitors for Zack Greinke (or Tim Lincecum for that matter):

1. Yankees would send Montero + for 2 years of Lincecum, they might send him to Milwaukee for 1 year and send a long a 4th OF or bullpen arm to cement the deal.

2. Red Sox might be willing to send Jose Iglesias and Josh Reddick for a year of Greinke to solidify their pitching staff.

3.White Sox might send Davan Viciedo and Chris Sale, given that Kenny Williams tends to over pay for vets.

4. Indians would perhaps send Lonnie Chisenhall, seeing as how they have shown a willingness to send prospects for proven vets with the Drew Pomeranz/Alex White for Ubaldo Jimenez trade last year.

5. Reds could send Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal if they felt the need to go "all in".

6. Angels could send Mark Trumbo/Kendry Morales and Tyler Chatwood to keep up with the Rangers and then possibly sign Fielder as a Free Agent.

The big "if" of course lies in "if the contra team would make that trade in order to compete for one season, and then send such players over Milwaukee's way. The Yankees and Red Sox would do it to retain competitive advantages over each other, the White Sox might do it because they need a front line starter after the majority of their rotation left this season due to FA, The Indians survived with an average 3B last season and if they felt Greinke gives them a better shot at winning in 2012 than Chisenhall would for the next 6 years, they could make that move. The Reds would only do it if they felt they could win in 2012, and the Angels would do a deal like this simply to keep track with the Rangers and have a shot at a playoff spot.

Each of the possible moves improves the Brewers for next season (or at the very least lets them be where they would with Greinke) and gives them cheap production for the following 5.

The Lincecum thoughts were because they don’t want to pass a payroll limit out of convenience not need. The Giants don’t really NEED to make a move to improve themselves; they could absorb a couple of financial losing seasons for a couple of years and hold onto Lincecum for those rides.

The Brewers SHOULD do a deal like this because it is financially and baseball smart. It saves money, it improves production, and the horizon for winning stays out in the future instead of abruptly ending on September 30, 2012 when Greinke is no longer a Brewer.

Having worked as a scout in the past, one of my favorite days of the MLB season is draft day.  I love to have my Baseball American Draft Preview in front of me while the picks come across the screen, and dream as an area scout might on each pick.  Living in Milwaukee, I have for the past 10 years or so focused in on the player I felt they should choose when draft day comes.

In the 2005 First Year Player Draft, that player was Cameron Maybin.  I loved the speed, loved that he was a CF, the premium athletic ability, loved the gap power and the potential for some power as he developed.  Maybin was ranked #3 in the the BA Draft Preview and listed him as having a ceiling between Preston Wilson and Vldimir Guerrero.

The Brewers selected Ryan Braun that year, who was ranked 14th in the BA Preview, and went on to win the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year award, and is one of the front runners for this years MVP Award.  Since that day I have always maintained my belief that Maybin was my guy, and until this year was ridiculed for it.

This year, now with his 3rd organization (the San Diego Padres), Maybin has finally showed some of the promise that led the Tigers to select him 10th in that draft and give him a $2.6 million signing bonus.  Between Draft Day 2005 and today, Maybin was probably rushed to the major leagues by the Tigers at age 20 in only his first full season of professional baseball, traded to the Marlins in a package that sent Miguel Cabrera to Detroit, was sent up and down to the Minor Leagues twice in 2 years while with the Marlins, and then finally traded to the Padres this past off season for a couple of relief pitchers.

Maybin is having a breakout season:  His defense has been good, his speed has been on display, and he has held his own at the plate.

Maybin's problem during those earlier years was always strike outs, tons and tons of strike outs.  He had problems with pitch recognition and making contact.  This year he has dramatically cut his strike out rate from a career number of around 28% down to 21%.  He has always had a problem with breaking pitches, but this season he is hammering fast balls, probably because he is seeing them that much more given his position in the Padre batting order.He is still succeptible to sliders but has improved his performance on change ups and curve balls.

His walk rate has decreased a bit, and although he isnt making any more or less contact, on balls inside or outside the strike zone, he is making better contact overall.  He has had a bit of luck this season with a .332 BABIP, but if you regress it down to league average, it probably doesnt hurt his overall value too much.

He is on pace for a 4.4 WAR season, and it wouldnt be out of the realm of possibility to expect another all star level season from him next year.  I would realistically project him for at least a 4 WAR season next year.  And that number would be a conservative estimate given he will be entering his age 25 season next year, and one would expect that he could improve nicely over the next 3 years entering his peak.

A lot of his value this season has come from CF defense (7.8 UZR) and an impactful baserunning performance.  These two things have been expected of him from day one being a speedster with great athletic ability.  But is it foolish of me to proclaim still that Maybin was "my guy" still over a Ryan Braun?  I dont think so.

This is a ranking of total WAR compiled for players from the 2005 Draft through their age 24 season (according to fangraphs):

1. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals, 19.5 WAR
2. Justin Upton, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks, 15.6 (through age 23 season)
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates, 12.9
4. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies, 12.3
5. Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati Reds, 11.3
6. Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers, 8.1
7. Colby Rasmus, CF, St. Louis Cardinals, 8
8. Cameron Maybin, CF, Detroit Tigers 7
9. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox, 5.6
10. Matt Garza, RHP, Minnesota Twins, 5 

If Maybin maintains his speed, improves on his walk rate, and contact quality, there is no reason to thinkt hat Maybin isnt one of the stars from that vaunted 2005 draft.  He probably wont ever be able to put up the offensive numbers that Ryan Braun does, since he plays in extremely pitcher friendly Petco Park, as well as a good portion in Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park, but his defense, baserunning, and overall game should keep him in very good company for the foreseable future.

People who might think my viewpoint on this issue is crazy (Brewers should have drafted Maybin in 05 instead of Braun), might not realize how close the two players are in performance, or that Braun was only the 6th best player takin in that draft.  Obviously, with any of the players on that list above, or even some that didnt make it such as Ricky Romero, your team has a nice player on their hand, and the true difference between all of the players cant be determined until their careers are over. 

But it is refreshing to see that some of the high school players that were taken in that draft that were possibly thought of as failures because they were being compared to the college guys from that draft, are starting to show how smart those draft picks really were.  And for me, nice to finally see "my guy" start to come into his own.

The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers have been on an incredible run this past month, going 24-4 in their last 28 games, and have a 10 game lead in the NL Central coming into the final month of the season.  Coming into the season GM Doug Melvin traded away the bulk of the organization's best prospects to shore up his pitching staff by sending SS Alcides Escobar, CF Lorenzo Cain and Pitchers Jake Odirizzi and Jeremy Jeffress to the Kansas City Royals for Zack Greinke, and also sending now 3B prospect Brett Lawrie to the Toronto Blue Jays for Shaun Marcum.  But did they really need to make these trades to get where they are right now?

Melvin felt the need to make these moves not knowing that Adam Wainwright would go down for the season in Spring Training, or that the Cardinals would have every key producer on the roster lose time on the DL, or that Edinson Volquez, and the entire Reds pitching staff would implode.

But what if he had followed the smart small market model, and keep the future in focus at all times, and made smart moves to acquire talent to fill gaps, and traded away FA approaching players for prospects, instead of depleting his farm system down to a 30th ranked system in the league in moves intended to go "all in" for a 2011 playoff push?

Two assumptions are being made here, which arent too far from actuality, given that talks were ongoing to acquire the players mentioned, or were reported targets, of the organization, in order for this scenario to work.  The first involves the Brewers having traded Prince Fielder prior to the deadline in 2010 to the Chicago White Sox for Daniel Hudson (this deal was reportedly in the works until Melvin demanded that Gordon Beckham also be included in the deal) and 1B/3B prospect Davan Viciedo (who was a more realistic expectation in a return for Fielder if you are the White Sox with Hudson as the main piece).  And the second assumption is that if no Greinke or Marcum trade had occured, they most likely would have gone out and acquired Carl Pavano as a free agent.  (This was also a reported acquisition target for the Brewers during last year's off season).

Those who have read previous fan posts of mine will know how much I love to use WAR.  I am aware the in a vacuum, WAR can be a great tool for player evaluation, but that the games arent played in a vacuum or on paper, and that the games actually have to be played.  So here is a comparison of what the Brewers roster (starters only) have curently produced vs. "what may have been":

• Catcher, Jonathan Lucroy, 2.0 WAR
• First Base, Prince Fielder, 4.2 WAR vs Corey Hart 2.7 WAR
• Second Base, Rickie Weeks, 3.8 WAR
• Shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt, 0.1 WAR vs Alcides Escobar 1.5 WAR
• Third Base, Casey McGehee, 0.6 WAR
• Left Field, Ryan Braun, 6.0 WAR
• Center/Right Field, Nyjer Morgan, 2.9 WAR vs (MiEquivalency projected) Lorenzo Cain, 1.5 WAR
• Starting Pitcher, Zack Greinke, 2.9 WAR vs Daniel Hudson, 4.0 WAR
• Starting Pitcher, Yovanni Gallardo, 2.7 WAR
• Starting Pitcher, Shaun Marcum, 2.4 WAR vs Carl Pavano, 2 WAR
• Starting Pitcher, Randy Wolf, 1.4 WAR
• Starting Pitcher, Chris Narveson, 1.9 WAR

The current roster (starters only) boasts a 33.3 WAR production this season.  The "what if" scenario would have produced 33 WAR.  On top of this, the team would have approximately $25 million extra in payroll dollars saved, and instead of having the worst farm system in baseball, would still have Jake Odirizzi, Brett Lawrie and perhaps Davan Viciedo as well.  Add to it that Escobar, Cain and Hudson all would have 5 years of cheap, team control available to them.

You could say hindsight is 20/20, and this is true, especially if you had the 20/20 vision in July of last year as I did.  Doug Melvin will most likely be lauded for the moves he made last offseason and for the short term gain that will most likely be awarded in October of this year, but shouldnt there be something to be said about the fact that the deal he didnt pull off last July, could have made the team more profitable and equally successful?

In the last 15 years, in the National League, there have been 16 playoff teams that have outperformed their Pythagorean W-L record by 5 or more wins.  This number includes 3 teams from the 2011 season who have already outpaced their number by 5 wins, or on pace to (Atlanta 4, Milwaukee 6, Arizona 5).  Of those 16 teams, only 3 times has that outperformance, or good luck, been the difference between a playoff spot and golf in October.

The 1998 Chicago Cubs had a 90-73 record, claimed the Wild Card spot with a game 163 win over the San Francisco Giants, but a Pythagorean W-L record of 85-72.  If not for the good luck, the Giants most likely would have won the Wild Card outright.

The 2001 Houston Astros had a 93-69 record, but a Pythagorean W-L record of 88-74.  Had it not been for the good luck, the Chicago Cubs would probably have gotten the Wild Card that year, with the Cardinals slipping up to division champions.  The Cubs had a Pythagorean W-L that year of 89-73.

But the luckiest post season appearance belongs to the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, who went 90-73, claimed the NL West title on a tie breaker with the Padres and Rockies.  That year, the D'Backs outperformed their Pythagorean W-L record by an incredible 11 wins.  Had it not been for this good luck, the Padres and Rockies most likely would have not had to play a game 163, the Padres would have been the Wild Card winner, and Tony Gwynn Jr.'s walk off triple scoring Corey Hart against the Brewers off of Trevor Hoffman wouldn't still be aching Padre fans.

Of the 10 other instances of outperforming (not including the 3 possible for this year) playoff teams above their Pythagorean W-L record by more than 5 wins, mentioned above, none of them resulted in being a difference maker for that playoff spot.

The 2003 San Francisco Giants beat their Pythagorean W-L record by 7 wins, but they won the NL West that year by 15 games over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers are poised to be the benefactors of some historic luck in their playoff race in the NL Central.  The team is on pace to outperform their Pythagorean W-L record by 8 wins.  They currently sit at 73-51 outperforming the Pythagorean W-L record by 6 wins to date.  Their closest competitors in the division, the St. Louis Cardinals, apart from key injuries to Adam Wainwright, and a bevy of key players spending considerable time on the DL, have had a tiny bit of bad luck as far as Pythagorean W-L, but sit exactly at the same number as the Milwaukee Brewers, at 67 wins.

Before yesterday's 5-1 loss to the possible NL Cy Young winner, Clayton Kershaw, the Brewers were on a torrid 19-2 run in their last 21 games.  This stretch of games is the thing that has valuted them from being a half game out of first place to being 7 up today on the Cardinals.

During a stretch like that, no matter who the team is, or how bad or good the team is or its competition, there will be some luck involved.  No team can maintain a .905 winning percentage.But a team has to be a "good" team as well to keep winning, even if you throw in some luck here or there.

So are the Brewers really good, or just really lucky?

During that stretch of games, the Brewers played series against the Astros twice, the Cardinals twice, the Cubs, the Pirates and the Dodgers.  Adding up the W-L records of those teams and weighting number of games versus the various opponents comes to an opponent combined winning percantage of .437.  If you play a team with a .437 winning percantage 21 times, you should expect to go 12-9 against them, the Brewers went 19-2.  So there is somethign to be said here that the level of competition the Brewers have faced during this stretch, has been fortunate, but also lucky to he tune of about 7 wins.  And the scheduling luck for the Brewers will continue to the end of the season.  They only have 3 series left against teams that currently have a winning record (Phillies and 2 against the Cardinals). 

During this stretch of games, the Brewers have outscored their bad opponents 97 to 48, which would translate into a Pythagorean W-L record fo 17-4.  So that probably accounts for some of the luck you might expect from a team on such a hot streak.

But if you look even deeper at some of the peripherals, the Brewers were even really lucky there.  During the past 30 days, their vaunted offense has been a middle of the pack performer, with a BABIP of .317 which isnt really lucky, but isnt really unlucky either.  The pitching is where a ton of the luck has come from.  During the past 30 days, according to fangraphs, the Brewer pitching staff has a .249 BABIP surrendered and an xFIP of 3.44 vs their actual ERA of 2.25.  Both the starters and relievers have had an ERA - xFIP of around 1.60 or so, again lucky.  And the relievers have a BABIP against of .240.  This would great luck would probably help account for a lot of the 1 run games they have won during the stretch (3-1 in one run games; 4-0 in 2 run games; and 1-1 in 3 run games).  It is very beneficial, if during 50% of your games you have a very lucky pitching staff to bail out your average offense.

I believe that this years Milwaukee Brewers are a good team.  I predicted they would win 88 games and just barely miss the playoffs, but I dont know if anyone could have predicted how lucky this team was going to be.  Statistics tells us that at some point that luck is bound to run out.  Hopefully for Brewer fans that time doesnt come until November.

Update:  After sweeping the Mets this weekend, the Brewers have now gone 22-3 over their last 25 games.  Their Actual W-L record is now 7 wins above their Pythagorean W-L record, and despite the fact that they are 8 1/2 games up on the Cardinals, the Cardinals have the exact same Pythagorean W-L record.  The pitching staff BABIP is .259, third best in baseball and the best among playoff contenders, and their ERA-xFIP is a whopping 1.04 runs per game, which is nearly a third of a run luckier than the next closest rank.

Good post from reader backtocali here. What's your take?

The BBWAA voted for King Felix and Lincecum for Cy Young Awards in years where they didnt profile as the typical BBWAA award winner.  In 2011 will the BBWAA do the right thing (as they did with the two votes mentioned here) this year, and vote for Matt Kemp as the National League MVP?

Granted, we are only 2/3rds of the way through the 2011 season, but the Dodger Center Fielder is having the most impressive season of any player in the NL, and it shouldn't really matter that he isn't playing on a contender, or that his team is 11 games below .500.

There's no telling how much the MVP voters might discount the fate of the Dodgers, when voting for Kemp as a viable "most valuable player." The last time serious consideration was given to a player from a non contending team (in the NL) was in 2005, when Derrek Lee had his run at the triple crown onoa sub par Cub squad.   In the last 20 years the NL BBWAAvoters have given serious consideration to only 2 other players for the MVP award that came from losing teams:  2002 with Sammy Sosa and1995 with Dante Bichette.  And we all know about the last time a winner came from a losing team (NL only again) was the 1987 award given to Andre Dawson who played for a Cub team that went 76-85.

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I have often wondered what the effect was if a team was playing another, and one one of the team's was missing one of its big stars.  Game to game the effect is not very much, but if you add it up over the course of a season, it starts to have a somewhat helpful effect on the healthy team.

Let's look at the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers.  I have often felt that the Brewers have been on the recieving end of an opponents "not quite best effort" from a lot of its opponents over the years.  Whether it is quantifiiable would take a ton of work, and in the end might not be at all.

This year for instance, the Brewers have had series against the Phillies without Chase Utley, the Cardinals without Matt Holliday, the Giants without Buster Posey AND Pablo Sandoval, the Nationals without Ryan Zimmerman (twice)and have also missed and have missed Jair Jurrjens, Josh Johnson and Johnny Cueto (twice) as an opposing pitcher due to injury.

Every team has injuries to deal with and some injuries hurt a team more than others.  The Brewers were without Zack Greinke for a month this year and also without Corey Hart for about a month. The Brewers would probably hope for a DL stop for Yuniesky Betancourt.

When trying to determine the effect this had on wins and losses so far for the 2011 season, I looked at all of the box scores for the year and tried to see which opponents were missing "star level" players for the series or even select games.  I then took a look at prior year WAR (for the April games) and then this year's WAR, and simply calculated a per game WAR level.

When you add up all of the "lost" WAR for Brewer oppoents this year, the total is 1.8 games.  It could be rounded up to 2 probably with other factors such as guys sitting for a game but appearing as a pinch hitter late in the game (e.g. Carlos Gonzalez).  The Greinke/Hart losses for the Brewers add up to about 1.4 WAR, and they rarely rest their big name players (even on Sundays or after get away days).

In the tight NL Central, if you were to extrapolate the data out for a full season, this effect could mean the difference between being the NL Central Champion, a Wild Card team, or golfing in October.  When you consider how much time has been lost by the Cardinals as a result of the DL, how much of a Brewer .5 game lead at this point in the season is good play, or simply good fortune?

What do people think?  Is this a fair way to determine whether or not a team has been lucky to miss certain players or pitchers, or is it simply a part of the game that every team in the league deals with, and therefore unquantifiable?

On Satruday afternoon I took part in the Community Mock Draft over at John Sickels' Minor League Ball site on SB Nation.  As Scouting Director for the Brewers my three thoughs were to select players (if available) that have been linked to the Brewers in the press, if that failed, try to pick players that BCB voters selected in the polls I posted for the #12 and #15 Brewer picks, and if all else failed, go with who I felt was the best player available.

BCB Voters desired that Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt be taken with the 12th pick by the Brewers and Matt Barnes, RHPk, Connecticut at #15.  The Brewers have been linked to Gray and Javier Baez, SS, Jacksonville, FL for the two picks.  Other players linked to the Brewers include LSU RF Mikie Mahtook, UConn CF George Springer and Texas RHP Taylor Jungmann.

When the two Brewer picks came around in the Mock Draft, Sonny Gray had already been taken by the Cubs representative, so I chose Matt Barnes, thinking that Baez would still be available at 15.  He was, and I chose him there.

In the 2nd and 3rd rounds, I chose Larry Greene, 1B, from a Georgia HS, and RHP Joe Musgrove from a California HS.  Greene was chosen for his connection to the team in press reports and Musgrove because I felt he was the best HS pitcher available at that spot, even though there were a couple of better players available on the offensive side.  If it had not been for the Cubs again, that 3rd round pick would have been Dante Bichette Jr, who has been linked to the Brewers.

Here are summarized scouting reports for the 4 players chosen from Baseball America (note: these arent word for word)

1. Matt Barnes, RHP, Connecticut: Big bodied right hander (6'4" 230) with front of the rotation upside with 92-94 mph fastball that touches 98.  Shart curveball and 80's mph changeup.  Both pitches are plus at times.  Smooth easy delivery.  Mechanics and command need some refinement.
2. Javier Baez, SS, Arlington Country Day, Jacksonville, FL: Questionnable makeup with the word "explosive" sometimes used to describe his attitude.  Best HS (and possibly overall) bat speed in the draft with plus raw power.  Good arm, and adequate range for SS, but most think he will outgrow the position shortly. His makeup/personality sound very stereotypical of a Latin player: explosive, aloof, emotional outbursts, etc.
3. Larry Greene, 1B, Berrien County HS, Nashville, GA:  Big body (6'2" 235) who pretty much is a one tool player compared to Brewer fan favorite Russell Branyon.  Big power bat, but struggles against superior competition and velocity. 
4. Joe Musgrove, RHP, Grossmont HS, El Cajon, CA: Considered by some to be the best HS arm in Southern California this year.  Big body (6'5" 225) with plus fastball that sits in the 90-92 range with good sink, can touch 97 or 98 with a hammer curveball and a split-change.  San Diego State commitment.  Needs some refinement in his delivery.

All 4 of these players have a strong possibility of actually being drafted by the Brewers, and although there were certain players at certain spots that I would have rather taken myself, I wanted to remain in the spirit of the excercise and select who I felt the Brewers would take with what was available.

Hi Everyone.  It's that time of year again.  Time for us all to get excited about the Draft (if the way the Brewers were playing right now isnt excitement enough).  As most of you know, for the third straight year I will be the Scouting Director for the Milwaukee Brewers, in John Sickel's Community Mock Draft over at the SB Nation Minor League Ball site, held on Saturday June 4th at noon central.

As I have in the past, I will post a poll every day to select players for each team that picks until the Brewers two choices at #12 and #15, and then use the results as a basis for who I might pick in the Sickel's draft.  I normailly will use the Baseball America Top 200 Draft Prospects as my basis for the poll choices, and since it just came out yesterday, and we dont have time to do one choice per day the way this will work is today the choice listed is the Pirates, but 2nd "winner" in the poll will be the choice for the Mariners who pick #2.  And it will go on like this until the Brewer choices.

In a very close race, BCBers decided that the Brewers should take Vanderbilt right handed pitcher Sonny Gray.  Gray is a bit undersized at 5'11", but he has a 90-95 mph fastball and a plus curve.  He can throw a changeup so he should remain as a starter.  At the very worst he is projected to be a closer.  He has drawn comparisons to Roy Oswalt.  It remains to be seen whether or not Gray will be available when the Brewers pick in the real draft next week, or if he will be available in the Mock Draft I will be participating in on Saturday at Sickel's Minor League Ball site.

Today we will attempt to predict who the Brewers second pick in the first round might be, after choosing Sonny Gray from Vanderbilt at pick 12.  Based on who is at the top of the poll tomorrow moring, I will attempt to pick up Gray and whoever todays poll winner is, in tomorrows Mock Draft at the Sickel's site.  I am personally not going to stray from my original thought of one bat one arm and one HS player and one college player.  It would not be a horrible thing if the Brewers wound up taking Gray and a guy like Matt Barnes in the first round of this years draft.  They would have two possible front of the rotation starters possibly mlb ready in 2 years.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates, Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
2. Seattle Mariners, Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
3. Arizona Diamondbacks, Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK)
4. Baltimore Orioles, Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
5. Kansas City Royals, Bubba Starling, CF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (KS)
6. Washington Nationals, Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
7. Arizona Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy (FL)
8. Cleveland Indians, Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
9. Chicago Cubs, Josh Bell, RF, Dallas Baptist HS (TX)
10. San Diego Padres, Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow HS (OK)
11. Houston Astros, Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, Columbia, SC
12. Milwaukee Brewers, Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
13. New York Mets, Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
14. Florida Marlins, Javier Baez, SS, Arlington Country Day, Jacksonville, FL
15. Milwaukee Brewers,
    

Hi Everyone.  It's that time of year again.  Time for us all to get excited about the Draft (if the way the Brewers were playing right now isnt excitement enough).  As most of you know, for the third straight year I will be the Scouting Director for the Milwaukee Brewers, in John Sickel's Community Mock Draft over at the SB Nation Minor League Ball site, held on Saturday June 4th at noon central.

As I have in the past, I will post a poll every day to select players for each team that picks until the Brewers two choices at #12 and #15, and then use the results as a basis for who I might pick in the Sickel's draft.  I normailly will use the Baseball America Top 200 Draft Prospects as my basis for the poll choices, and since it just came out yesterday, and we dont have time to do one choice per day the way this will work is today the choice listed is the Pirates, but 2nd "winner" in the poll will be the choice for the Mariners who pick #2.  And it will go on like this until the Brewer choices.

In a very close race, BCBers decided that the Brewers should take Vanderbilt right handed pitcher Sonny Gray.  Gray is a bit undersized at 5'11", but he has a 90-95 mph fastball and a plus curve.  He can throw a changeup so he should remain as a starter.  At the very worst he is projected to be a closer.  He has drawn comparisons to Roy Oswalt.  It remains to be seen whether or not Gray will be available when the Brewers pick in the real draft next week, or if he will be available in the Mock Draft I will be participating in on Saturday at Sickel's Minor League Ball site.

I personally would have gone the HS route here because the pick is protected and there may be a few HS, riskier signs available at this sport with higher upsides than Gray.  I have also contended that the Brewers will probably go one arm and one bat in this first round and one HS player and one College player since that pick at 15 is unprotected and they will probably want to sign that person quickly and for a near slot type deal.  We will see what actually transpires.

Today we go back to the old system, until tomorrow, where the Mets will get the highest vote getter in todays poll and the runner up will go to the Marlins, preparing the way for another poll for the Brewer pick at 15 tomorrow morning.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates, Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
2. Seattle Mariners, Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
3. Arizona Diamondbacks, Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK)
4. Baltimore Orioles, Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
5. Kansas City Royals, Bubba Starling, CF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (KS)
6. Washington Nationals, Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
7. Arizona Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy (FL)
8. Cleveland Indians, Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
9. Chicago Cubs, Josh Bell, RF, Dallas Baptist HS (TX)
10. San Diego Padres, Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow HS (OK)
11. Houston Astros, Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, Columbia, SC
12. Milwaukee Brewers, Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
13. New York Mets,
14. Florida Marlins,
    

Hi Everyone.  It's that time of year again.  Time for us all to get excited about the Draft (if the way the Brewers were playing right now isnt excitement enough).  As most of you know, for the third straight year I will be the Scouting Director for the Milwaukee Brewers, in John Sickel's Community Mock Draft over at the SB Nation Minor League Ball site, held on Saturday June 4th at noon central.

As I have in the past, I will post a poll every day to select players for each team that picks until the Brewers two choices at #12 and #15, and then use the results as a basis for who I might pick in the Sickel's draft.  I normailly will use the Baseball America Top 200 Draft Prospects as my basis for the poll choices, and since it just came out yesterday, and we dont have time to do one choice per day the way this will work is today the choice listed is the Pirates, but 2nd "winner" in the poll will be the choice for the Mariners who pick #2.  And it will go on like this until the Brewer choices.

As always, comments are welcome, and a gread diversion for me at my job.  So lets get this going.  Tomorrow we will skip to pick #3, Saturday pick #5, and so on until the #12 pick.

On a side note:  Unlike days past, today's pick will be for the Houston Astros only, and I will hold single day, Brewer only surveys for their two first round picks, so you dont have to worry about whoever finishes this vote 2nd to go automatically to the Brewers.  I realize that this process was not perfect, but hopefully we will still have a pretty good idea of who will be available when the Brewers pick.

Today is time to pick the Brewers first first round pick, the 12th overall.  This pick is protected as a result of their record last year.  My assumption will be that they go for the best player available, and who may be a "riskier" sign than what they might select with the 15th pick, which is unprotected, and if not signed, they get nothing.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates, Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
2. Seattle Mariners, Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
3. Arizona Diamondbacks, Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK)
4. Baltimore Orioles, Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
5. Kansas City Royals, Bubba Starling, CF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (KS)
6. Washington Nationals, Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
7. Arizona Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy (FL)
8. Cleveland Indians, Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
9. Chicago Cubs, Josh Bell, RF, Dallas Baptist HS (TX)
10. San Diego Padres, Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow HS (OK)
11. Houston Astros, Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, Columbia, SC
12. Milwaukee Brewers,
    

Hi Everyone.  It's that time of year again.  Time for us all to get excited about the Draft (if the way the Brewers were playing right now isnt excitement enough).  As most of you know, for the third straight year I will be the Scouting Director for the Milwaukee Brewers, in John Sickel's Community Mock Draft over at the SB Nation Minor League Ball site, held on Saturday June 4th at noon central.

As I have in the past, I will post a poll every day to select players for each team that picks until the Brewers two choices at #12 and #15, and then use the results as a basis for who I might pick in the Sickel's draft.  I normailly will use the Baseball America Top 200 Draft Prospects as my basis for the poll choices, and since it just came out yesterday, and we dont have time to do one choice per day the way this will work is today the choice listed is the Pirates, but 2nd "winner" in the poll will be the choice for the Mariners who pick #2.  And it will go on like this until the Brewer choices.

As always, comments are welcome, and a gread diversion for me at my job.  So lets get this going.  Tomorrow we will skip to pick #3, Saturday pick #5, and so on until the #12 pick.

On a side note:  Unlike days past, today's pick will be for the Houston Astros only, and I will hold single day, Brewer only surveys for their two first round picks, so you dont have to worry about whoever finishes this vote 2nd to go automatically to the Brewers.  I realize that this process was not perfect, but hopefully we will still have a pretty good idea of who will be available when the Brewers pick.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates, Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
2. Seattle Mariners, Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
3. Arizona Diamondbacks, Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK)
4. Baltimore Orioles, Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
5. Kansas City Royals, Bubba Starling, CF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (KS)
6. Washington Nationals, Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
7. Arizona Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy (FL)
8. Cleveland Indians, Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
9. Chicago Cubs, Josh Bell, RF, Dallas Baptist HS (TX)
10. San Diego Padres, Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow HS (OK)
11. Houston Astros,
    

Hi Everyone.  It's that time of year again.  Time for us all to get excited about the Draft (if the way the Brewers were playing right now isnt excitement enough).  As most of you know, for the third straight year I will be the Scouting Director for the Milwaukee Brewers, in John Sickel's Community Mock Draft over at the SB Nation Minor League Ball site, held on Saturday June 4th at noon central.

As I have in the past, I will post a poll every day to select players for each team that picks until the Brewers two choices at #12 and #15, and then use the results as a basis for who I might pick in the Sickel's draft.  I normailly will use the Baseball America Top 200 Draft Prospects as my basis for the poll choices, and since it just came out yesterday, and we dont have time to do one choice per day the way this will work is today the choice listed is the Pirates, but 2nd "winner" in the poll will be the choice for the Mariners who pick #2.  And it will go on like this until the Brewer choices.

As always, comments are welcome, and a gread diversion for me at my job.  So lets get this going.  Tomorrow we will skip to pick #3, Saturday pick #5, and so on until the #12 pick.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates, Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
2. Seattle Mariners, Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
3. Arizona Diamondbacks, Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK)
4. Baltimore Orioles, Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
5. Kansas City Royals, Bubba Starling, CF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (KS)
6. Washington Nationals, Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
7. Arizona Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy (FL)
8. Cleveland Indians, Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
9. Chicago Cubs,
10. San Diego Padres,
    
    

Hi Everyone.  It's that time of year again.  Time for us all to get excited about the Draft (if the way the Brewers were playing right now isnt excitement enough).  As most of you know, for the third straight year I will be the Scouting Director for the Milwaukee Brewers, in John Sickel's Community Mock Draft over at the SB Nation Minor League Ball site, held on Saturday June 4th at noon central.

As I have in the past, I will post a poll every day to select players for each team that picks until the Brewers two choices at #12 and #15, and then use the results as a basis for who I might pick in the Sickel's draft.  I normailly will use the Baseball America Top 200 Draft Prospects as my basis for the poll choices, and since it just came out yesterday, and we dont have time to do one choice per day the way this will work is today the choice listed is the Pirates, but 2nd "winner" in the poll will be the choice for the Mariners who pick #2.  And it will go on like this until the Brewer choices.

As always, comments are welcome, and a gread diversion for me at my job.  So lets get this going.  Tomorrow we will skip to pick #3, Saturday pick #5, and so on until the #12 pick.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates, Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
2. Seattle Mariners, Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
3. Arizona Diamondbacks, Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK)
4. Baltimore Orioles, Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
5. Kansas City Royals, Bubba Starling, CF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (KS)
6. Washington Nationals, Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
7. Arizona Diamondbacks,
8. Cleveland Indians,
   
   

Hi Everyone.  It's that time of year again.  Time for us all to get excited about the Draft (if the way the Brewers were playing right now isnt excitement enough).  As most of you know, for the third straight year I will be the Scouting Director for the Milwaukee Brewers, in John Sickel's Community Mock Draft over at the SB Nation Minor League Ball site, held on Saturday June 4th at noon central.

As I have in the past, I will post a poll every day to select players for each team that picks until the Brewers two choices at #12 and #15, and then use the results as a basis for who I might pick in the Sickel's draft.  I normailly will use the Baseball America Top 200 Draft Prospects as my basis for the poll choices, and since it just came out yesterday, and we dont have time to do one choice per day the way this will work is today the choice listed is the Pirates, but 2nd "winner" in the poll will be the choice for the Mariners who pick #2.  And it will go on like this until the Brewer choices.

As always, comments are welcome, and a gread diversion for me at my job.  So lets get this going.  Tomorrow we will skip to pick #3, Saturday pick #5, and so on until the #12 pick.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates, Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
2. Seattle Mariners, Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
3. Arizona Diamondbacks, Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK)
4. Baltimore Orioles, Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
5. Kansas City Royals,
6. Washington Nationals,
   
   

Hi Everyone.  It's that time of year again.  Time for us all to get excited about the Draft (if the way the Brewers were playing right now isnt excitement enough).  As most of you know, for the third straight year I will be the Scouting Director for the Milwaukee Brewers, in John Sickel's Community Mock Draft over at the SB Nation Minor League Ball site, held on Saturday June 4th at noon central.

As I have in the past, I will post a poll every day to select players for each team that picks until the Brewers two choices at #12 and #15, and then use the results as a basis for who I might pick in the Sickel's draft.  I normailly will use the Baseball America Top 200 Draft Prospects as my basis for the poll choices, and since it just came out yesterday, and we dont have time to do one choice per day the way this will work is today the choice listed is the Pirates, but 2nd "winner" in the poll will be the choice for the Mariners who pick #2.  And it will go on like this until the Brewer choices.

As always, comments are welcome, and a gread diversion for me at my job.  So lets get this going.  Tomorrow we will skip to pick #3, Saturday pick #5, and so on until the #12 pick.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates, Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
2. Seattle Mariners, Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
3. Arizona Diamondbacks,
4. Baltimore Orioles,
   
   

Hi Everyone.  It's that time of year again.  Time for us all to get excited about the Draft (if the way the Brewers were playing right now isnt excitement enough).  As most of you know, for the third straight year I will be the Scouting Director for the Milwaukee Brewers, in John Sickel's Community Mock Draft over at the SB Nation Minor League Ball site, held on Saturday June 4th at noon central.

As I have in the past, I will post a poll every day to select players for each team that picks until the Brewers two choices at #12 and #15, and then use the results as a basis for who I might pick in the Sickel's draft.  I normailly will use the Baseball America Top 200 Draft Prospects as my basis for the poll choices, and since it just came out yesterday, and we dont have time to do one choice per day the way this will work is today the choice listed is the Pirates, but 2nd "winner" in the poll will be the choice for the Mariners who pick #2.  And it will go on like this until the Brewer choices.

As always, comments are welcome, and a gread diversion for me at my job.  So lets get this going.  Tomorrow we will skip to pick #3, Saturday pick #5, and so on until the #12 pick.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates,
2. Seattle Mariners,
3. 
   
   

We are less than 3 weeks away now from the MLB Amateur Draft, and reports are starting to come in with hints about where teams are looking to make picks in the first few rounds.

There are reports out that the Brewers are high on Taylor Guerreri, RHP from a South Carolina HS, and that they are really excited about Larry Greene, a Left Fielder from a Georgia HS who has big power but not much of anything else.  It has been reported that they sent out an "army of scouts" to see him in a recent game.

The Brewers have one protected pick at #12 and one unprotected at #15 in the first round.  And it might be wise for them to take one bonus baby, High School player at 12 and then a safer sign, college player at 15.  In addition to the safe sign versus over slot dilemma, it probably will be in their best interests to take both an arm and a bat in the first round given the fact that they have the worst farm system in all of basebal, and need a lot of help at every position on the field.

The Brewers will have choices all around for both picks, and this is good, given the fact that the draft is deep, and that there should be impact quality talent available for them at each pick in the first round.

Using the Baseball America Mid Season Top 60 Prospects for the 2011 Draft, here are a list of players I would think (and hope) that the Brewers are seriously considering drafting:

1. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, South Carolina HS
2. Archie Bradley, RHP, Oklahoma HS
3. Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
4. Josh Bell, OF, Dallas HS
5. Blake Swihart, C, New Mexico HS
6. Daniel Norris, LHP, Tennessee HS
7. Javier Baez, SS, Florida HS
8. Mike Mahtook, OF, LSU
9. Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
10. Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina
11. Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon
12. CJ Cron, 1B, Utah

Of this list, my personal favorites for pick #12 would be Archie Bradley.  He is much more refined than Guerrieri, is more polished, and has a better arsenal than TG.  I am not a fan of helium guys at all, and the lack of a third pitch in TG scares me away.  Despite the fact that Bradley will be seeking an over slot bonus, in the area of an MLB contract, I hope this doesnt scare the Brewers away (although it most likely will).

And for pick #15, I like CJ Cron.  He is probably the easiest sign of the college position players that will be available to them, and is most likely the safest bat of the group listed above.  I wouldnt mind etiher Mahtook or Michael, but each of them has a lower upside, in my opinion.

What does everyone think?  Is there anyone not on this list that you think the Brewers should be considering?

This is my third go round as Brewer SD in the Minor League Ball Community Mock Draft.  This year the Brewers have the 12th and 15th picks in the first round, the 70th overall pick in the 2nd round, and the 100th pick overall in the third round.

The Brewer farm system is devoid of impact talent of any kind, and the team will be looking to draft as many impact talents as possible whether pitcher or position player.  Most assume that in the first round they will draft one pitcher and one bat.

The 15th pick is unprotected due to the fact that the Brewers did not sign last years 1st round pick, Dylan Covey.  they will most likely use that pick to draft an easy sign and get into the system right away.  While they might be willing to use the 12th pick on a HS player who will cost more, but has big upside.

If I were the real Brewer scouting director, I would be zeroing in on Blake Swihart, C, Cleveland HS, in Rio Rancho NM and Matt Barnes, RHP of UConn.

I have a MOD thread up over at Brew Crew Ball, and I welcome you to join in the disucssion there as well.