SB Nation User Blog: backtocali

Show us the money!

backtocali — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:31:58 -0000

I read something very interesting today in my recent Baseball America.

The regular article by Jayson Stark notes that every team in baseball, gets a certain amount of money every year before they sell the first ticket, hot dog, t-shirt, or parking space. The league, revenue sharing, and tv contracts all contribute to this amount. And the amount is rather large. For teams like the Marlins, Pirates, Royals and Nationals, it was probably as much as $90 million last year alone.

Each team gets $30 million from the General Fund

Each team gets money from revenue sharing (after the bottom feeders last year, there was still $200 million to distribute amont the rest of the teams) averaging $20 million for each team. A team like the Brewers probably gets more than that I would guess.

And each team has its own TV contract which gives them money. The lowest conract in baseball was $15 million, so again, the Brewers probably have a little more than that number.

Each team does have to pay the league $10 million for a pension fund and MLB operations fund.

So for the Brewers, they are probably getting a big fat check from MLB Fox Sports Wisconsin totalling somewhere in the $60 million range. Factor in tickets and concessions, parking, merchadise, they are making a ton of money. The ticket sales alone probably puts them in the $90 million range alone, figure another $30 million for concessions, and $60 million for merchandise.

These numbers are all just estimates, but if I am way off, that's $240 million. The payroll was around $90 million last year, that leaves a huge chunk of money thats going towards operation, paying down debt, etc.

I do not believe MLB needs a salary cap, I believe certain things in the economics of baseball seem to need fine tuning, but if each team in the league is making abour $150 million a year before paying expenses, then something is wrong.

I also believe, that in the case of Miller Park and the Brewers, that money spent on upgrading the scoreboard or sound system is kind of like sprucing up your corporate offices, but putting a sub par product on the store shelves. I also do not believe that spending big money on free agents is the way to go, especially for a team like the Brewers (in the end this philosophy doesnt work as well as developing your own players well).

If expenses are 50% of that remaining $150, and they use say 10% to pay off debt, where is the rest of that money going? And why have ticket prices been raised again?

Is my math way off here, or is the ownership group pocketing $60 million? I suppose the debt obligation is much more than 10%. But if I am close to being right, why doesnt the payroll amount increase, or ticket prices go down? It just seems like the Brewers and Doug Melvin and Mark Attanasio dont have the right to cry poor if they are getting this big fat check at the start of every year.

Using the TVC

backtocali — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:41:08 -0000

General question for the members of Btb: When using Sky Kalkman's Trade Value Calculator, during the offseason, do you include '09 numbers to determine the players value?

Josh Johnson for example, if you input his 5.5 WAR, and $1.4 million salary, and then input 60 and 80% for his '10 and '11 salary, with a 4.7 and 4.3 WAR for '10 and '11 respecitvely, his surplus value comes out to be a little over $41 million. But this just doesnt seem right to me. Why would a team pay for past performance?

If you eliminate the '09 information altogether, but leave the '10 and '11 the same, the surplus value comes out a little over $17 million.

Should you just split the difference to determine his value? Or is the $17 mil number correct, and if so, it seems a little low. Any advice?

Beware History

backtocali — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:10:14 -0000

For two straight years now, on the final weekend of the season, the Milwaukee Brewers have played a series against that years division winners. The title was decided a bit before each of those series this year and last, and as a result, the opponent, 2008 Chicago Cubs, and the 2009 St Louis Cardinals, rested starters, played it easy, etc. and wound up losing games that were meaningless for their playoff chances, that they probably should have won if they were giving it their all.

Along with that final series nap, each team went on to then get swept in the first round of the playoffs, not being able to switch their performances back "on". If you believe in the need for momentum, these two straight years "taking it easy" against the Brewers in the season finales could be a big reason for those quick, first round playoff exits. It should also be noted that the 2008 Cubs finale in Milwaukee is also a contributing factor to the Brewers making the playoffs(that and David Wright missing about 4 different rbi chances that would have won games for the Mets against the Marlins). In the latter case, not only might they have been too asleep to perform well in the first playoff round, the Milwaukee Brewers could very well have missed the playoffs altogether, making their playoff-less streak 27 years instead of the current 1.

The 2010 season schedules have been released, and the Cincinnati Reds finish the year at home against the Milwaukee Brewers.

I predicted that the Reds were going to finish 2nd this year and win 85 games. Of course some injuries and a down year from Aaron Harang prevented that. Without being able to forecast what the Reds will do this year in the offseason, finishing 2nd might be a stretch if Edinson Volquez is out for a very long time, but I believe they have the talent to make a big push next year. Add to that they could wind up with Tony LaRussa as manager and Dave Duncan as pitching coach, and they might make the run Reds fans have been waiting for since 1990. Big seasons from Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, as well as continued "decent" years from Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, and bounce back from Harang coupled with a breakout from Homer Bailey are things that could lead to a Reds playoff appearance reality.

Just one word of advice, if you have the season locked up by that final weekend, dont rest your starters and play all of the prospects against the Brewers if you want to get past the first round of the playoffs.

Another NL MVP Discussion

backtocali — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:17:36 -0000

Before everyone jumps on me here, I am well aware that this is a numbers based group and we are supposed to look "beyond the boxscore" which I do every day in evaluating talent on the baseball field.

That being said, we know that the BBWAA often gets it wrong in voting for MVP, CY and ROY. Lots of intangibles come into play. Whether those intangibles can be quantified or not, players win awards because of them. Jimmy Rollins MVP a few years ago is a great example, as is Terry Pendleton's a while back.

I'm a big Troy Tulowitzki fan. I dont think he is worthy of top 10 MVP consideration this year based on his numbers, but he will probably get a lot of attention.

Pujols is going to be the winner, if not unanimous this year, but given the leadership, superior defense,and big offensive contribution to a team lacking in big offense (not to mention the fact that his team is playoff bound again), where does Tulo finish in the voting?

Does he have a chance to land in the top 5, or even the top 3? Top 10? What do you think? If you were building a team, would there be many guys in front of Tulo you would start building your team around?

Thoughts?

If MLB Trade Rumors is true...

backtocali — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 19:42:21 -0000

Looks like the Orioles might target a big bat for the middle of the lineup for 2010. Given the fact that the O's have a deep farm system, with prospects to spare, this isnt a bad idea. At best, any big addition in the middle of the lineup pushes the team closer to the top of the division next year, and gives them confidence/momentum to make the big Rays like push in 2011.

That having been said, Prince Fielder might just be the guy (forgive me if this topic has been addressed ad nauseum on the board already).

Fielder is quickly pricing himself out of the Milwaukee market, and there is a lot of talk about the Brewers moving him this offseason. Personally, I dont thinkt he time to move him is until the deadline in 10 or in the offseason next year.

The Brewers need pitching. The Orioles have pitching prospects in abundance.

Using Sky Kalkman's Trade Value Calculator from Behind the Box Score, I come up with a value of about $28 million dollars for Prince Fielder, using 5 or so WAR's for the next two years, and an arb number of $16 million for 2011. Fielder is due approximately $11 million for next year.

Would Oriole fans accept Fielder coming to their team if it meant they had to send Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, Brandon Snyder and Kam Mickolio? Those players, according to Victor Wang, of The Hardball Times, have a value approaching $33 million combined. You probably would have to overpay for Fielder for just a little bit after the year he is having in 2009.

This would be very similar to the deal that sent Mark Teixeira from Texas to Atlanta a few years ago. The big risk on the downside for the Brewers in this deal is that of those 4 players, probably none of them are MLB ready right now, and they might want one more piece to make it worth their while.

What do you think?

Is Jair Jurrjens worth more in a trade than Prince Fielder?

backtocali — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 16:51:46 -0000

An Atlanta Braves fan posted over at Brew Crew ball inquiring about Prince Fielder coming to the Braves for Jair Jurrjens. At first, though I like JJ, I did not think that it would be a fair trade for the Brewers. I initally thought that JJ would be a nice, key piece of a deal involving Fielder, but threw out Freddie Freeman and Tommy Hanson as well.

After a sleepless night (not because of the thought of this trade, but of a one month old child), I re-examind this idea and found some very interesting things:

Using Sky's TVC, Fielder comes up with a $28 million value approximately, using 5 and 5 WARs plus a half here and there. while Jurrjens, using 3 to 3.5 WAR for 4 years winds up at about $40 million! in value.

With the Brewers pitching less season and Fielder having an MVP type year while on a team that is currently 6 games under .500, lots of talk and discussion has been made of a possible Prince Fielder deal in the offseason to rebuild the team. The Brewers do not have any impact pitching in the pipeline right now, and there is not expected to be a lot of high quality pitching available in Free Agency this year, not that the Brewers could afford it even if they wanted to.

So, this having been said, and the numbers listed above for Jurrjens and Fielder, is the middle of the rotation type of starting pitcher worth more than one of the premier power hitters in the game? What will the Brewers expect in return, what could they expect, and will they be happy when all is said and done?

My thought is that the problem with the Brewers getting fair value for Fielder is that his money is going to be the problem in that situation. He is due abour $11 million next year, and could break the bank somewhere near what Ryan Howard did in his last year of arbitration.

I personally think there are only about 5 or 6 teams out there that might be willing to take a flyer on Fielder in his last two arb years (Red Sox, Tigers, Orioles, White Sox, Angels, Mariners, Braves, Dodgers, Giants) and only about half of those teams would have what it takes in young or prospect talent to make it worth the Brewers while.

What do you think? What would it take to land Fielder, and improve and satisfy the Milwaukee Brewers? (The counter offer, after researching, that I made to the Braves fan was Fielder for Freddie Freeman, Cole Rohrbough, Randall Delgado, and Kris Medlin).

Is Casey McGehee a $40mm player?

backtocali — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 01:30:13 -0000

I just love the Sky Kalkman Trade Value Calculator. I use it often to try and see what a team can get in a trade. For each of the past 4 seasons, living in Milwaukee, have speculated as to whom the Brewers should trade to make their team better. This was all theorhetical of course, until the TVC came along to help quantify things.

For reference, in 05 it was Geoff Jenkins, in 06 it was Bill Hall, in 07 it was Ben Sheets, and in 08 it was JJ Hardy. These years correspond to offseasons in which the trades (should) have been made by the Brewers.

Looking into 2009, my trade target to better the team is goiing to be Casey McGehee. He will be coming off of a career year in which he will almost accure 2 WAR, is very cheap making the league minimum, and will still have 5 years left until Free Agency. To top it off all of the production he will put up this year is on a part time basis. McGehee will have no where to play next year for the Brewers as top prospect Mat Gamel will man the hot corner and Rickie Weeks will have returned from a wrist injury. The Brewers could keep him as a bench player, but to get full value for him, and build for the future, this offseason will be the time to deal McGehee for the sake of the future.

In using Sky's TVC, and giving a generous 3, 3, 2.5, 2 and 2 value for his WAR the next 5 years, and slight increases in salary next year and the year after, followed by 40, 60, 80% for Arbitration years, and giving a $2.5 value for Type B Free Agent, the value for McGehee comes to about $40 million dollars.

This is astounding. I will just say right now that I do not believe that McGehee is worth this amount. There is a reason players become 27 year old rookies, and McGehee is no exception. McGehee murders fastballs but is very vunerable on off speed stuff. He plays a very good 3B defensively and there is some value there.

But, as we all know, MLB GM's see or want to believe things that we and other fans do not. And some make awful trades and give up the farm for peak years. Would there be a GM out there that would be willing to pay this type of price for Casey McGehee? I have noted on other shots around SB Nation that the Brewers will still need to trade JJ Hardy this offseason. If they were to couple McGehee and Hardy together, and the assumption that the former has this inflated value, could make quite a killing in prospects.

Using the TVC again, I estimate Hardy's value at approximately $16mm, given he probably is going to get an extra year of Arbitration eligibility, and that he still has a decent glove.

If you put these two players together in a package and send them to a team that is weak on the left side both offensively and defensively, the Brewers could definitely make a haul in prospects to bolster the future of the team.

I theorize that the Mariners, Tigers and Red Sox (the Cardinals would be a good fit as well, but the Brewers probably would not want to trade within the division) would be the kind of team that might want one or both of these players. And the Brewers would want pitching in return, and possibly a First Baseman for the future after Prince Fielder departs (and he will leave Milwaukee) in Free Agency.

Assuming $46mm in value (even if you cut this in half the Brewers could land a nice return) the Mariners could give up: Greg Halman, Philippe Aumont, Juan Ramirez and Michael Pineda. The Red Sox could offer Lars Anderson (they could then sign Fielder to a deal and not worry about losing a 1b/dh prospect), Michael Bowden and Kyle Weiland. And the Tigers could offer up quite a few mid level pitching prospects though none as highly rated as Bowden or Aumont. In each case filler players or guys already in the major leagues could make up the difference.

Is this rating too much for either McGehee and/or Hardy? What kind of return could the Brewers get in a deal involving these two players? Btw, the trade the Brewers SHOULD make before the 2011 season will be Prince Fielder. What does everyone think?

Brewers/Sox Waiver Deal?

backtocali — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 20:49:29 -0000

Buster Olney has a cryptic note today on ESPN about JJ Hardy not clearing waivers. He also mentions previous talks between the Red Sox and Brewers and wonders if those talks are starting up again.

Using Kalkman's TVC, Hardy is approximately worth about $10mm in a trade, which if youre talking about the Red Sox means a guy like Michael Bowden or Daniel Bard.

The Sox need a Shortstop and the Brewers need to make way for Alcides Escobar.

If the Brewers had some foresight, they could have dealt Hardy during last year's offseason and gotten a very good #2 starting pitcher, which would have them in a much better spot than they are now. Of course hindsight is 20/20 and there is nothing they can do about that now (I personally was a big proponent of moving Hardy last offseason to make way for the defensively superior Escobar to pick up pitching.)

Would the Sawx give up Bowden for Hardy? Would the Brewers feel short changed in that deal? Would they part with Bard? The only plus right now that Bard could bring the Brewers would be as the 2010 closer, unless he reverts back his starter ways at UNC.

Thoughts?

Teddy Ballgame

backtocali — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 20:07:31 -0000

Has everyone seen the HBO program on Ted Williams? I just saw it and thought it was great. I should add that I believe that Williams is in fact the greatest hitter who ever lived, and aside from defense is the best player in the history of the game.

Has anyone ever done a projection of what his seasons missed in the war would have looked like? He missed nearly 5 full seasons in his prime to serve in the Armved Forces during WWII and the Korean War. Has anyone seen Pecota, or Zips, or something like that that might replicate what he would have done?

No real reason for this, he is in the HOF, and is generally regarded as one of the best ever, but I wonder how far up some of the career leader boards he would be if he had not missed those seasons. Some approximations might be 700 HR, 3600 hits, 2300 rbi, and perhaps the most WAR all time.

Any thoughts?

NL MVP Thoughts

backtocali — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 17:01:21 -0000

The trade deadline has come and gone, the pennant races are just starting to heat up, and we are entering the home stretch of the 2009 MLB season.

Every week or so I like to look at numbers and players to see who is doing well, making little All Star teams, MVP choices/tallies along with Cy Young and ROY races.

This years clear cut, run away winner (as of right now) for the NL MVP award is Albert Pujols, again. He is leading the leage in HR, he is one off the pace in RBI, and at one point was a serious Triple Crown Threat. Most importantly, though, is that his team is currently in first place in the NL Central.

I personally believe that the MVP should come from a playoff team, or at least playoff contending team. After that would come teams that finish above .500, and then everything else after that.

Living in Milwaukee, I am bombarded by Brewer loving media, and a lot has been made about Prince Fielder's MVP credentials so far this year.

The problem is that the Brewers are currently under .500, a losing team.

Does Prince Fielder deserve a spot at the MVP table this year? He is having a great year, great numbers, is leading the league in RBI, and his patience has allowed his batting average to be over .300 right now. Given the fact that he is playing for a losing team, does his great season merit MVP thoughts (at least serious ones), and for that matter, you can throw Ryan Braun and David Wright into this same class.

As or right now, my MVP ballot, if I were a member of the BBWAA, would be Pujols, 2. Hanley Ramires, 3. Chase Utley, 4. Raul Ibanez, 5. Prince Fielder, 6. Ryan Howard, 7. Matt Kemp, 8. Pablo Sandoval, 9. Yunel Escobar, 10. Shane Victorino. If you allow the sub .500 status, Fielder would get bumped up to 2nd, and Braun 10th.

In the last 10 years, only 15 players, from sub .500 teams have finished in the top 10 in MVP voting in the NL. Of those 15, only 3 have finished in the top 5 in voting (Miguel Cabrera, 5th in 06; Derrek Lee, 3rd in 05 and Mark McGwire 5th in 99). You have to go all the way back to 1995 to find a player from a losing team finishing as high as 2nd in voting (Dante Bichette) and 1992 to find a winner coming from a losing team (Barry Bonds).

What do you think? Does Fielder deserve serious consideration for the MVP if the Brewers finish the year below .500. Tell me why.

Poll

After Albert Pujols, who is most worthy of the National League MVP at this point in the season?

Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee

7 votes

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida

33 votes

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia

51 votes

Raul Ibanez, LF, Philadelphia

1 votes

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia

0 votes

Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers

3 votes

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco

24 votes

119 votes | Poll has closed