• It occurred to me today that there's an excellent chance that regardless of how far they get, the Blazers will never have to face a team against whom they had a losing regular season record.  The only two playoff teams in the western conference for whom they were on the losing side are Denver and Utah.  The Blazers were 2-1, 3-1, or 3-0 against everyone else.  Of course, this doesn't mean anything, the playoffs are a different animal, but I took it as a hopeful sign.
• The above bullet is particularly true because the two teams the Blazers were weakest against this year are hurting.  Denver with Martin and Anderson, Utah with Boozer and Kirilenko.  (Bynum has been out for some time as well.  There's not as much talk about Bynum being a bust with his frequent injuries as there has been with Oden.  Maybe it's a number one pick thing.)  In addition, neither team has adjusted well to the injuries - they haven't been playing well lately, not a good sign headed into the post-season.
  
• I'm glad we didn't get Dallas in the first round.  After that last game in the Rose Garden I don't want to see them again anytime soon.  They were terrible, we were terrible, the zebras were awful and the result made me want to claw my eyes out.  It's one thing to force a grind-it-out style game, there's going to be a lot of that in the playoffs regardless. That was just badly played by all parties, and the bad blood towards Dallas was palpable in the arena.
  
• Defense is generally key in the playoffs, which gives us a bit of an advantage over a wide-open system team like Phoenix.  Refs don't call as much bumping, and are less likely to blow a whistle on tenacious defense short of egregious grabbing, etc.  Here's where the Blazers should shine, barring another 60% shooting spree like in the first game of the playoffs last year.
• I've been musing - who will be on the playoff roster?  Aldridge, Camby, Miller, Batum, Fernandez, Webster, Howard, Bayless, Cunningham, Pendergraph.  Roy, maybe.  If they shut him down and have him go ahead with the surgery, then no.  Still, that's only eleven if Roy is on there.  The twelfth spot could possibly go to... Greg Oden?  I saw Diener and Mills last night, neither would get a minute of playoff time, unless others were all fouled out or injured.  They could stick Oden on there just in case the team is still playing in May.  There have been recent reports that he could play in the playoffs.  Might as well stick him on the roster... just in case.
• I'm looking forward to watching the Suns in a seven game series.  Their games are generally entertaining, and even though I expect the Blazers will be effective at slowing them down some, the pace will surely be above the Blazers season average.  The series may be a glimpse of what the Blazers would look like if they played with a little more tempo.  The lack of Phoenix defense should allow Portland to avoid any offensive stink-bombs (though it's not assured, they managed to brick in the face of little defense on March 21st).
• I still miss Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake, and wish they were here for the post-season.  This is not to say we ever could have gotten to here without Camby.  It's just that Travis and Steve were important contributors to making this team what it is, Blake in particular this year of course, and it's unfortunate that their seasons are done early (though I'm sure they're glad to have completed their contracts with the Clippers).

There are going to be a lot of draft grades given out by professional sports writers in the next 48 hours.  I don't expect that KP and the Blazers are going to be on the honor roll this year, but the team's focus is no longer about getting better while getting younger.  It's winning time.  But enough about that.  I've rendered my thoughts on how each player's prospects are on the team by which they've been drafted (or to which they've subsequently been traded).  Note, these will be adjusted as future trades are announced over the next few days, but the initial take is based on draft night outcomes.

1. Blake Griffin to Clippers - He was drafted onto a team with Zach Randolph, plus Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman.  Clearly, they plan to move someone.  But as it stands, they haven't, and as the most offensively productive of the three, Randolph is not a team player with a big contract that they'll have a hard time moving.  At the same time, he's the guy they really need to move the most.  Survey says they give the minutes to Griffin until Zach has the hoops family break both Blake's knees.  Plus, they're the Clippers, perpetually terrible and quite possibly cursed.  C-

2. Hasheem Thabeet to Grizzlies - So Marc Gasol had a pretty nice rookie season.  Their reward for him was using the number two pick to draft another center.  I'm not crazy about Thabeet's game, but he's real tall and can play some defense, so maybe he gets some minutes this season behind Gasol.  Perhaps he can be a Tyson Chandler type of guy, eventually, but as Memphis already has a productive center, this is a tough start for him.  C

3. James Harden to "Thunder" - James Harden will immediately start in place of Kyle Weaver, letting Durant slide to the small forward spot.  So he's basically starting for a team full of young guys who can ball.  Could he possibly have landed in a better situation?  A+

4. Tyreke Evans to Kings - An interesting case here, as Beno Udrih and Bobby Jackson are clearly not the point guards of the future in Sacramento, but at the same time analysts are unanimous that Evans is not ready to step in as an NBA point guard today, and Sacramento's best player is a shooting guard.  So they drafted him as a future point guard, on a team that really needs a present point guard.  Next year may be a rough one for Tyreke if they throw him to the wolves as the starter, but the crucible may harden him if it doesn't consume him with disappointed expectations.  B

5. Ricky Rubio to Timberwolves - Ricky's situation makes the position Yi was drafted into a couple of years ago look good.  Not only is he drafted into the frozen north, but the Minnesota immediately turns around and drafts another more experienced and NBA ready point guard in Flynn, who they are rumored to like a lot.  So now if he does want to bite the bullet and break his contract to come over to the NBA, there's an excellent chance he won't get to play much.  I would have loved to see Rubio's reaction on camera when the sixth pick was announced, particularly if he was mic'ed.  Anyone care to translate that Spanish for us?  My feeling is he does not come over if he's not traded.  F

6. Jonny Flynn to Timberwolves - Has to go head to head with the consensus best upside point guard in the draft for minutes.  Not good.  On the other hand, the smart money seems to think that he's the guy for them, and as I mentioned above, I don't think Rubio comes over for table scrap minutes.  Which leaves only another undersized point guard with a dubious jumper to beat out for the position.  At least with Flynn there's probably some upside - this is doubtful for Telfair.  A-

7. Stephen Curry to Warriors - I feel badly for Curry.  He's an NBA talent, even though he clearly does not yet posses an NBA body, and I have serious doubts about his durability over an 82 game season.  Still, I said the same thing about Tayshaun Prince when he came out of Kentucky, so I've been way wrong on that issue before.  Even so, Curry gets to "play" for Don Nelson.  They guy who famously doesn't do much in terms of providing guidance to his players (his former players have gone on the record saying he just sits there during time outs, not addressing the team).  Nelson makes George Karl look like Stan Van Gundy.  Plus, he's notorious about not playing rookies, and Curry is the team's second and less talented undersized shooting guard who will be asked to play minutes (if he's lucky!) at the point.  I see this as a terrible landing spot for most rookies, but particularly bad for him.  D-

8. Jordan Hill to Knicks - Anyone with some game ought to be happy to be picked by the Knicks.  They have a player's coach and they love to score the ball, and they're rebuilding and are very likely to have plenty of minutes for any rookies who can be productive.  He's theoretically got Al Harrington and Chris Wilcox ahead of him at the power forward slot, but those guys are basically expiring contracts to the 2010 sweepstakes Knicks.  A

9. DeMar DeRozan to Raptors - They needed an athletic wing, they got one.  DeMar has to live in Canada while playing for a team that's on its way down, with Bosh headed out the door after this season and few prospects of improvement on the horizon, but the same could be said of most of the team listed above this, and he'll almost certainly get to play, which for a rookie is the most important thing.  Still, he has to live in Canada.  B

10. Brandon Jennings to Bucks - That ought to answer any questions Ramon Sessions had about whether he was going to be able to extort a huge contract from the Bucks.  They are ready to move in a different direction by drafting Jennings.  Still, he didn't chalk up the experience he had hoped for in Europe because the coach of the team he was signed by over there wanted to, you know, win, and keep his job.  That kind of thing.  So Jennings is still very raw, and is probably not ready to start even for a (now clearly, with the Jefferson salary dump) teardown team like the Bucks.  But he will get to play major minutes if he shows promise.  B+

11. Terrence Williams to Nets - With the Vince Carter trade, a lot of minutes just opened up at the small forward spot for the Nets.  Williams is a terrific glue guy, but when one looks at the Nets roster one has to wonder where the points are going to come from.  Brooks will throw in some, but Devin Harris isn't going to be able to carry the scoring load enough of the time for them to win many games, and Williams doesn't help them much there, unlike maybe CDR.  New Jersey is looking at some lean times next year, Frank may actually be grateful when he's finally axed.  B-

12. Gerald Henderson to Bobcats - Charlotte is thin at the shooting guard spot, and Raja Bell is wearing out and expiring.  Henderson will almost certainly get to prove himself as the future shooting guard, even if Larry Brown isn't much friendlier to rookies than Don Nelson.  At least, unlike Nelson, Brown is actually a teaching coaching with a history of turning both players and teams into winners (albeit sometimes at a heavy price to their egos).  This was a very good landing spot for Henderson.  A

13. Tyler Hansbrough to Pacers - PsychoT got drafted at #13, to a team that loves them their white dudes.  He gets to come is as a slightly smaller and less talented Troy Murphy behind, well, Troy Murphy.  That is, if he can beat out McBob for the job.  Might be fun to be a fly on the wall when those two match up in practice.  Regardless, expectations for him will be low, and he will meet them.  A fine fit, though you've got to wonder if Indiana even wants to get better by taking him this high.  A

14. Earl Clark to Suns - Well, with Grant Hill and Matt Barnes off the books, a lot of minutes have opened up at the small and power forward positions in Phoenix.  Add to that the fact that they're clearly retooling and are likely as not to dump Stoudamire, and the future is wide open for Earl Clark in the land of the Suns.  He has to beat out Jared Dudley and Alando Tucker for minutes, but if he can't do that he doesn't deserve them.  Clark has to be happy with this result.  A

15. Austin Daye to Pistons - He's not ready to play in the NBA, but Detroit is a team that really needs players and can be expected to be extremely active in free agency.  As he's a project, it doesn't matter so much that he's currently on the depth charts behind a guy with two years left on his contract who never misses games.  He may get some spot minutes, but anything he can pick up from Prince while he's still there is a bonus.  He could do worse.  B+

16. James Johnson to Bulls - The Bulls are actively shopping Tyrus Thomas, a more talented but less coachable  and skilled player than Johnson, and if they manage to put one through things will be looking up for JJ, as he'll only have to fight off Taj Gibson for minutes then.  In the mean time, he's playing behind a guy who's only one year older than him with three years of NBA experience, on a team that now has heightened performance expectations that they're going to be hard pressed to live up to unless they can make some roster magic happen.  C+

17. Jrue Holiday to 76ers - Very similar to the situation with Evans - a combo guard is drafted to play for a team without a quality point guard under contract.  Unlike the Kings, the 76ers are a team that will want to win some games this year.  The best case for Jrue is that Andre Miller gets extended for couple years and he can learn the position behind him.  It would be brutal for him to try to start this year, but, as I said, the 76ers want to win some games, so I can't see that happening.  B-

18. Ty Lawson to Nuggets - It's ironic that the most NBA ready point guard is the guy who's drafted behind the strongest point to have a potential replacement drafted for him.  Lawson would have been better off going to
any team that really needs a starting point guard sooner rather than later.  But who knows, perhaps Chauncey is closer to the end than it looked like from last year's playoff and season.  Still, he's got to be near the top of the list of guys you'd want to learn from.  B+

19. Jeff Teague to Hawks - With Claxton and Law traded and Bibby expired, the Hawks really need a point guard who can start and be productive right away.  My guess is that's a re-signed Mike Bibby, not Jeff Teague.  Still, free agency is a tricky thing, Crawford is not a point guard, and though it's possible Teague's not one either,as things stand right now Teague is number one on the depth chart at that position on a team with playoff ability.  A

20. Eric Maynor to Jazz - Sucks to be Eric Maynor, playing behind a young franchise point guard for a coach who hates rookies.  Still, with Knight and Price both off the books he may have a chance at all their minutes if he's willing to put up with Sloan's invective.  D+

21. Darren Collison to Hornets - An interesting choice here by the Hornets.  Collison is likely to be a solid backup.  But playing behind Chris Paul, that's all he's ever going to be.  If he accepts that, this may be an fine fit for him, albeit an inherently limiting one.  Still, he gets to observe the best active point guard and spell him for the 9 minutes a game he's rested.  Hey, Pargo parlayed that into a decent paycheck in Europe, Collison may be able to make something of it too.  C-

22. Victor Claver to Blazers - Drafted by a deep team with a minutes crunch with its existing roster, no desire to get younger, and a history of drafting European players late in the first round and then never signing them.  It's a good thing he has no plans to come over any time soon.  Assuming he has plans to actually play in the NBA someday, this pick probably wasn't welcome news.  D

23. Omri Casspi to Kings - A tough draw here onto a rebuilding team that already has young talent in the front court.  Still, because they won't win many games next year, he may get a chance to prove himself if he comes over, even if everyone stays healthy.  C

24. B.J. Mullens to "Thunder" - Mullens went to a team that needs a good center.  He's not that center, but at least his team needs one.  It's a young team with low expectations for the coming season and Scotty Brooks is a teaching coach.  Presti is building for the future, and if Mullens puts in the effort he could be a part of it.  If he can defend the paint and grab some boards, he may get minutes for that alone, they don't need him to score.  His prospects will look even brighter if they manage to deal Collison.  B+

25. Rodrigue Beaubois to Mavericks - They're going to need a point guard, even if they do re-sign Kidd, he's going to be social security eligible in a couple more years.  Could be that future point guard is Beaubois, after they let him marinate in Europe for a while.  B

26. Taj Gibson to Bulls - You never want to be the second player drafted at your position (unless you're Jonny Flynn, I suspect, but that's a rare exception) by the same team, and James Johnson was picked 10 spots higher by Bulls to play the same position as Gibson.  Johnson is a more versatile and skilled player.  Gibson is going to have to work his butt off and hope not everybody can manage to stay healthy, or he's not going to get a real shot.  C-

27. DeMarre Carroll to Grizzlies - Does getting a "junkyard dog" make the soft Grizzlies a "tough" team?  I don't know, did getting Renaldo Balkman make the Knicks a "tough" team?  Somehow, I don't see it.  Either way, Carroll will get the chance to fight Arthur and Warik for minutes, and may see some court time when they need energy and defense.  A guy with his skill set shouldn't expect anything more.  A-

28. Wayne Ellington to Timberwolves - Having dumped both their shooting guards for all frontcourt players and the rights to draft Rubio, the Wolves are very thin in the backcourt and Ellington may see a lot of minutes this year.  My sense is Minnesota has the worst record of the '09-'10 season, with around 15 wins, even if big Al is completely healthy.  It hurts to play for a team that's losing so much right after winning a national championship, but hey, at least there's a good chance he'll be playing.  A

29. Toney Douglas to Knicks - The Knicks need depth at in the backcourt and if you saw Douglas play for FSU last year, you know he is a straight up baller.  He may not make it in the NBA, but his best chance is probably in a wide open system like the Knicks under D'Antoni.  He should thank his lucky stars to have been drafted in this spot.  A+

30. Christian Eyenga to Cavs - This guy should be thrilled to be drafted in the first round with the talent that was still on the boards.  Ferry might as well have given this pick away.  But for Christian, score!  You're this year's Petteri Koponen!  A

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Well, there you have it.  Remember, this is from the perspective of the players, or tries to be.  Have at it!

I don't think our small forward issues are serious, since we're still not sure what we have with Martell coming back from injury, Batum clearly being a promising prospect, and with Outlaw capable of playing minutes at the small forward position as well. Add to that Rudy and Roy's ability to play spot minutes in a pinch, and we'll end up with something that works at the SF with personnel already on the roster

So like 10,000 other posts, this is going to address the point guard position. Sergio has not proven to be a good fit here. He's not a good enough defender, and he never will be. The rest is just window dressing - the shooting, etc could conceivably be improved, but he just doesn't have chops defensively to be successful in Nate's system.  Steve Blake is great for what he gives you - consistency and a facilitator's mindset. He'll be a serviceable backup down the road.

Jerryd Bayless is a combo guard who can create off the dribble, but doesn't have the court vision to turn that creativity into dimes.  This year wasn't an anomaly, I think down the line we'll come to realize KP gave Nate a player who didn't fit a need in the Blazers system.  Perhaps he was thinking he'd eventually fill Jarrett Jack's role as an penetrating energy guy off the bench. And I do think Bayless was the best player available to the Blazers from where they were picking in that draft.  But I don't think he's got a place on this team as currently composed.  He is not a point guard (he wasn't one in college, either), and you don't learn to be a point guard in the NBA if you're not a point guard before you get there.

So we have a starting point guard who's a championship team backup point guard, and two backup point guards who aren't well-suited to this team's needs.  What to do?

Well, we've all heard the old saw about moving Brandon Roy to the point guard position.  This would be making a commitment to half-court basketball all the time, Brandon does not look to push the ball when it's in his hands, he is a deliberate court general when he has the ball.  Blake is a little better, but both of them are not easy fast break point facilitators. Coach McMillan would be ok with the slow pace, he hates turnovers in transition more than he loves uncontested layups.  The problem with this idea is that Brandon clearly isn't interested, in part because constant ball-handling responsibilities wear him out.  If this was ever going to happen, it would have already happened, as McMillan has stated to the press he'd be trying Roy at PG, and the experiment has only been given brief trials over three years, and never sustained.

Similarly, Rudy Fernandez will not play point guard.  It might work if the Blazers ran a triangle-like offense predicated on interchangeability and movement, but the point does have responsibilities for starting and resetting the Blazers offense, and Rudy is better passing the ball off the swing than he is when he's bringing it up, and his handle isn't point guard quality.

We could pick up a veteran point guard. I like Andre Miller, though I sympathize with those who believe he might be about to fall off the age-related productivity cliff and worry about his poor lifetime outside shooting percentage. He is a point guard who can penetrate and make plays, stick to his man on defense (though he's not a top tier defensive player), and fit very well into the Blazers locker room. So to my mind, he'd be one option, though I think there's a good chance he re-signs with Philadelphia.

In terms of free agents, Jason Kidd is not interested in playing for Portland, he's said so himself (through his agent).  Ramon Sessions got a long look from the Blazers brass when they brought him in for pre-draft workouts a couple years ago and they decided he was not what they needed.  I'd be surprised if their opinion has changed.  Mike Bibby is a terrible defensive point guard. Nate McMillan would not be on board with signing him, and I think he'd be right to resist that option.

If Andre Miller is not available or the Blazers decide he's too expensive or too risky, what then are the best options available through the draft or trades?  The Blazers will draft in the 24th spot this year in the first round, and Darren Collison from UCLA,  Curtis Jerrells from Baylor, Tony Douglas from FSU, AJ Price from Uconn, Tyrese Rice from Boston College, and a few second tier foreign point guards are all still projected to be on the board.  Unfortunately, the reason these players are most likely to still be on the board is because it's far from clear they will be successful in the NBA, none of them are likely going to be able to step in anytime soon to help guide a contending NBA team.

That leaves the Blazers in a position where they either need to trade up in the draft or try and pry a quality point guard off another team with players and picks. While Orlando has multiple starting point guards, I think after they (sadly) lose the Boston series, Rafer Alston is the one they let go, and we don't want him. I'm not a Baron Davis or Gilbert Arenas fan in terms of their fit with Portland, and Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Derrick Rose, Devin Harris, Chauncey Billups, Rodney Stuckey, Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook, Jose Calderon, Mike Conley, and DJ Augustin will all be too expensive in terms of what we'd need to give up to get them - if the teams would even entertain trade talks; for many of these guys, they wouldn't. Steve Nash is getting long in the tooth and is a poor defender.

The Bobcats might part with (or not match an offer sheet to) Felton, but his shooting numbers make Andre Miller look good.  Chris Duhon could be available, but it's unclear he's much of an upgrade from Steve Blake. I've seen Nate Robinson's name mentioned here but he's not a point guard. I've also seen a lot of talk about Kirk Hinrich, but it's clear to me that the series with the Celtics proved that he has a lot of value to the Bulls as both a backup point guard and a two guard, and with Gordon's uncertain future with the team they're not going to trade him for a backup point guard or two and small forward (where they've got both Luol Deng and Salmons).

There are a few players on the draft board above where the Blazers pick who might fit the team's need for a quick, steady, creative point guard who can really defend. Ricky Rubio could be a good fit, but since he's a lock for the first two picks, getting him would almost certainly require excessive concessions, something more than just taking on a bad contract and moving a non-core player or two. Depending on how the draft falls out, though, either or both of Ty Lawson and Brandon Jennings may be obtainable for the right price. They're lottery picks, but probably not high enough in the lottery for the picking team to dismiss trading them out of hand.

Each of them has their issues. Lawson has been hurt, but nothing serious that would raise long-term durability worries (unlike, say, Brandon Roy's knees). His three years of collegiate experience at a top tier school would make him the more likely of the two to successfully transition to making an immediate impact in the NBA.  He's a tenacious defender and has a pro's body.  I imagine KP is looking very carefully at the moves available to him to try and land Ty Lawson.

Brandon Jennings is another option, though the year he's spent abroad has made it clear he is not yet ready to start at point guard for a contending NBA team like the Blazers.  He has struggled with his shot selection and his shooting percentages in the European league he's been playing in this past year have been poor as a result.  It would take some time for him to adjust to the NBA. But he's a creative playmaker, a tough defender, and has a good stroke already (unlike, say, Sergio). Also, he's lightning quick, somewhere in the neighborhood of Tony Parker, if not Aaron Brooks.  If the Blazers were able to pick up Jennings, it wouldn't have much immediately impact on their championship prospects for 2009-2010, but it would give them a strong core for most of the next decade.

There are a handful of other guards in the draft that will go before 24, but none of them project to be NBA starting point guards right now (Evans, Holiday, etc), and we have the only combo guard we need as our primary franchise player.

Based on my analysis, if we think our championship window is open this coming season, trying to sign Andre Miller may be enough to get us there, but if the plan is still to build for the next decade, trying to move up in the draft to get Lawson (best uncrazy case scenario) or Jennings is what I'm hoping the Blazers organization is working hard to do right now.

Advantages for Portland

• Outlaw hasn't played well yet.
  Outlaw has struggled with consistency his whole career, and is a streaky offensive player who gets most of his points via jumpers. He's shooting 7/19 in this series with only 3 rebounds. In the season series with Houston, he had 14 points with 13 rebounds, 15 points with 3 rebounds, and 15 points with 5 rebounds. He can score on Houston. But his defense isn't strong enough to justify his minutes if his offense isn't there. That said, he's been big for us in a lot of games this year, and his attempts and shooting percentages are all higher on the road than at home (to the tune of 4.6% for three point shooting). Travis is a road warrior, and is due for a big game or two.
• The team is just getting used to the twin towers rotation.
  It's unfortunate coach McMillan didn't use it more in the regular season, so the players could get a feel for where they need to be on the floor and get comfortable with running the offensive sets. The twin towers lineup has the potential to be extremely effective defensively, especially when Hayes is alongside Yao, and can shut Houston's interior offense down when Aldridge needs to rest (he played 44 minutes in the last game). If they can also figure out a way to score, we'll see more of it in this series, keeping Aldridge fresher and hopefully keeping his productivity up by allowing him more rest.
• No more Channing Frye in minutes that matter.
  This is a big move by the coaching staff. When Aldridge needs to sit, they are willing to sacrifice offense for defense and play a second center instead of playing Frye. It's a little sad that's it's come to this, but his inability to play interior defense or hit shots has made his floor minutes a liability that there's no room for in the playoffs. The same is true for Bayless. We're likely to see a Brandon/Rudy backcourt if Sergio isn't doing the job. There's no room for error here, the season is on the line.
• Aaron Brooks has played out of his mind.
  He is 19/29 for the series thus far, and 9/13 from behind the three point line, with 12 assists and 6 rebounds in two games. Hard to imagine he's going to stay this hot the whole series, so it's probably not too much to expect his productivity to drop off some, even if the match up is advantageous for him (which we'd surely admit, it is).

Advantages for Houston

• Aldridge and Roy were 26/46 in game 2. Is this repeatable?
  Roy is capable of a high level of production every night, but it's too much to expect him to score 40+ again on Friday, when he'll be double-teamed on most of his touches. Couple that with Aldridge also shooting a high percentage on Tuesday, and you have to expect production from these two to be somewhere short of what they did in game 2. Role players are going to have to step up their contribution for Portland to win.
• Houston has an advantage with participants 11-13.
  As has been pointed out elsewhere, barring the last minute of the game where they chose to foul, the Rockets have an advantage with the guys with the whistles. We have every reason to expect that this will likely increase, or at best stay the same in Houston. Portland is going to need to find ways to score without relying on foul calls when they're hit on drives to the paint. Couple this with the home playoff crowd, and it's going to be incumbent upon the Blazers to come out with energy and focused execution early to establish themselves as the aggressors in the eyes of the refs.
• Adelman will figure out how to get Yao more looks.
  Coaches make adjustments between games, and there's no reason to think Houston won't find a way to get Yao more looks. He's automatic from 8 feet and in, and the Blazers must expect more cross screens, double screens, down picks, and dump and dash isolations for Yao. Expect him to get closer to 20 points and 10 boards in 35 minutes this game, which means less bad shots by Ron Artest, and likely higher overall offensive efficiency from them. Portland has to be ready to counter this.
• Turns out Houston has a serious match up advantage at the PG position.
  Steve Blake has been ineffective this year as an outlet shooter against the Rockets, with the last game being the first in five tries where he's broken double digits in scoring (with 10, he has yet to reach his season average). He's done well in not turning the ball over this series, with 11 assists and only one turnover, but he hasn't been able to fill the role he's performed so well this season as a spot up shooter when opponents double team, because Brooks and Lowry get back to him too quickly and Houston has outstanding defensive rotations. And he hasn't been able to team up with his pick and roll partners to defend the Rockets PGs effectively either, obviously. I wrote earlier about how we had an experience advantage at the point, but there is no doubt now that speed trumps experience.

Admittedly, I'm a Blazers fan, but I'm going to try and fight through my bias here without pulling a Jason Quick.

So, let's look at the two teams...

Continue reading this post »

I made (what I thought was) an interesting observation today based on the information at 82games - the Blazers are the only team in the NBA with positive "by position" production from all five positions.  In layman's terms, this means the Blazers are, as an aggregate, outplaying their opponents at each and every spot on the floor.

To put this in perspective, the three teams that are above them on Hollinger's power rankings, the Cavaliers, L*kers, and Celtics, all have one position at which their players are being outplayed, on average, by the opposition.  For the L*kers and Cavaliers, it's at the point guard position (Fisher and Farmar, Williams and Gibson).  For the Celtics, it's at center (Perkins and Davis).

Because Brandon Roy is listed in five man units at the small forward (when in with Fernandez) as well as shooting guard, those two positions are the most productive for the Blazers, with point and power forward being about equal behind them.  The least productive position has been at the center, but at least some of that can be attributed to Oden's getting acclimatized to the league (it would certainly be negative there if Joel weren't having an outstanding season).

Speaking of Brandon, as near as I can figure he's been responsible for producing wins against San Antonio (7 points and lead scorer in 4th quarter, 5-6 FTs), Houston (duh), Minnesota at home (scoring 4 straight points with one minute left and the score tied at 91), Minnesota away (scoring 4 straight and then an assist to Travis with one minute left, when down 82-83), Sacramento at home (scoring 9 of the final 13 points in the last 5 minutes when down 80-84), and Washington (scoring 8 of the final 15 points with 5 minutes left and the score tied at 83).  That's 6 wins the Blazers, most of which they probably don't get without him on the floor.  Record: somewhere between 8-12 and 10-10 without Brandon Roy.

About this, I have two comments: 1) His health is the most critical factor in the Blazer's success the rest of this season (and the fuzzily forseen future).  Not Oden's development, or anything else.  Roy must stay healthy.  I think Fernandez can also be a late game guy (like he was in NY), and Travis has shown the ability to hit big shots late last year, but neither of them can take over a game as Roy has demonstrated, time and again. 2) Anyone who isn't talking about Brandon Roy in the top three or four slots for MVP based on the season so far hasn't been paying attention.  The Blazers are a deep and talented team without Brandon Roy, but he is the engine that makes them go.

(That said, at the moment, based on team performance LeBron James is the clear MVP to my mind.  His on/off is +18.7, and he plays 74% of the Cavalier's minutes.  His off-court is minus three (Brandon's on/off is almost zero).  Put another way - they're being outscored, and are therefore also a .500 team at best when he's not on the court.  Looking at the numbers, the Lakers are still a very good team without Kobe.  The Celtics can have one of their big three have an off night and still win.  With that many minutes, only the Hornet's Chris Paul has a bigger impact on his team's performance (well, there's also Rashard Lewis, interestingly, in terms of on/off - funny how his name never comes up as he's not considered the best player on his own team) and the Hornet's are in a funk, even so, hurting Paul's MVP chances.)

I guess the importance of Roy to the team's success has been on my mind of late not just because of the recend articles by Jason Quick, but also because last year Brandon suffered an injury in the second game against Boston that was another heavy blow on a slumping team.  Sure, people get hurt in the NBA, and it gives an opportunity for others to step up.  But this guy, we need almost every night.

Clearly, not every team's general manager is a good judge of talent.  Some are good at spotting talent, but terrible at putting together a cohesive team.  At the same time, in some ways, being an NBA GM is the most susceptible position in a franchise to second guessing though, with a close runner-up being the coach.  Let's face it, while some of us think we may have the solution to Boston's match-up zone or an idea of how to slow down Chris Paul, every one of us is sure trading Pau Gasol for the rights to his brother, an expiring contract, and Javaris Crittendon was highway robbery.

Which brings me to my next point, that fans in the NBA are usually, but not always, fans for their team first and the NBA and overall game second.  The implications of this are that fans are the most likely ones to propose trades that make no sense for the other teams involved (say Pau Gasol for Javaris... uh, nevermind).  That's understandable, they may have a hard time putting themselves in the shoes of the other team, so a Heat fan may not see why trading Ronnie Brewer (he's got a funny shot) and Deron Williams (he's coming off an injury, right?) for Chris Quinn and Shaun Marion's expiring contract isn't absolutely the best thing Utah could possibly do  right now.

Fans can be forgiven for proposing trades that make no sense for any of the teams involved except their own.  They are fans, after all.

That brings us to the third category, professional sportswriters.  With the explosion of blogs, particularly high quality content blogs like BlazersEdge, there is some pressure on sports' chattering class to maintain a level of professionalism and bring both style and substance to their readers like never before.  Take, for example, Sam Smith's article today about a number of topics, with a paragraph with a potential trade involving the Portland Trailblazers, to wit:

"After seeing the Grizzlies in Chicago Saturday, I can't believe they won't make a deal with pointless Portland. This seems a natural with the modest Greg Oden, likely in a depression now as he's hurt again amidst amazingly huge expectations in the community, likely yearning for his old, aggressive buddy Mike Conley, who though starting doesn't seem the favorite of coach Marc Iavaroni, who seems to favor Kyle Lowry. Sources say the Trailblazers continue to only offer Travis Outlaw. I wouldn't give up LaMarcus Aldridge, either. But if I were Memphis and even with a loaded perimeter , I'd ask for Rudy Fernandez, Nicholas Batum and Channing Frye and take Raef LaFrentz's expiring deal and save some money and give them Darko Milicic (wow, is he awful) or Marko Jaric's bad deal and Antoine Walker. I don't see how that can't happen."

First, note that Portland is "pointless."  Perhaps someone can tell me what that means.  Existentially, one could argue that everything we do in life is pointless, as we all ultimately end taking a dirt nap, however clumsily that applies to a place, but let's set nihilism aside and assume he's talking about the basketball team.  I guess they are 1-2 on the season, and if they're not bound for the playoffs, one might argue (I think unsuccessfully) that their season is pointless.  I doubt that's it, however.  I suspect he was feeling alliterative and couldn't come up with anything better. 

I'm not going to address the sentence structure in the second sentence in detail, I'm only going to say it is very, very bad.  As for the content - he postulates that Greg Oden is probably depressed - fair enough, but then goes on to throw out there that his depression about his injury is cause for Oden to be "yearning" for Mike Conley.  It's safe to say what he's yearning for is to be able to play basketball for a little while without getting hurt.  In the same convoluted (ok, I lied) sentence he asserts that the Memphis coach appears to prefer Lowry over Conley, who "doesn't seem the favorite."  Fair enough, maybe Conley is not the favorite of Ivaroni, so they'd be willing to part with him for a fair price.

So what does slippery, silly, screwy Sam Smith think is a fair price?  Evidently not Aldridge, no, that's too much, but Conley and Milicic for Fernandez, Batum, Fyre, and RLEC.  Because, as our intrepid reporter points out about Milicic, "wow, is he awful."  How could the Blazers pass on sending three young, talented players and a gold plated expiring contract for an awful player and a talented, but unproven point guard?  Or better yet, surely the Blazers would want to take Marko Jaric's "bad deal" and malcontent Antoine Walker.  I mean "I don't see how that can't happen."  Seriously?

I could maybe see this as a post on a Grizzlies fan site, but Smith isn't even a Grizzlies fan.  So what gives?  My theory?  His pet monkey got on his computer and started randomly hitting keys.  He gets paid for this, folks.  Hopefully in bananas, he's earned them.

There's another prediction thread over on O-Live today, in which people are making their cases, as we have here countless times, about whether the Blazers will have 42 wins or 56 wins or 82 wins.  The talk is inevitably deferential to teams that have finished at the top of their division last year, and which haven't sustained any serious personnel losses.  Which makes me want to flip the conversation over - this post's focus is on who in the west actually got better this off-season.

L*kers: Andrew Bynum returns from injury.  This moves Gasol to the PF, which is probably OK, and potentially moves Odom to the SF and Walton to the bench.  Crazy tall and talented lineup on paper.  We'll have to see if there's enough room on the block for both Gasol and Bynum, and Gasol isn't as effective outside as, say, LaMarcus Aldridge.  Still, with a healthy Bynum, the L*kers got better, and didn't lose anyone critical (only Turiaf, who was not).

Hornets: They got James Posey, a scrappy defender and a clutch shooter, who averaged less than eight points and four and a half rebounds last year for the Celtics in just over 24 minutes.  They lost Jannero Pargo, who averaged just over eight points in a little less than 19 minutes a game.  I'm going to call that a wash.  The year of experience they all got playing together was great, but what are the chances of Peja being able to go 75+ games again this year?  I mean, seriously?  I'm going to call them even.

Spurs: There's no substitute for experience, and these guys have a lot of that.  But they basically just got older going into the fall, Manu has ankle issues, and at their age you've got to expect they're going to have some injury issues again this year.  Roger Mason is not enough of an addition to offset the loss of Brent Barry and the ravages of time.  The Spurs got worse - their starting five are now 33, 32, 37, 35, 26.

Jazz: Kosta Koufos and Brevin Knight?  I'm going to say the Jazz spent the off-season treading water.  They still have a relatively young and talented starting five, with Okur, Boozer, Kirilenko, Brewer, and Williams, but they didn't make any major moves to improve, I guess they figure marinating the mix they have in place now will be enough to get the job done, that or they're contractually stuck until Boozer opts out and heads to Miami.  Either way, not improved.

Rockets: This one is a tough call, for the off-season, they picked up Ron-Ron and Brent Barry.  Brent Barry was a nice pickup, with his recent injury issues he should feel right at home in Houston.  But who does Ron-Ron start instead of?  I'm guessing the answer is not Battier.  So they start him at the PF at 6'7" instead of Chuck Hayes?  Or do they slide the 6'8" Battier over to the PF, to try and guard guys like Gasol and Aldridge?  I'm going to call this a no-better, despite them picking up Artest and Barry, as I just don't see Ron-Ron working out there, especially if he's fighting Battier for minutes.

Suns: Shaq is old.  Grant Hill is old.  Steve Nash is getting up there.  This is a team that needs to win now, so they didn't rebuild during the off-season.  They picked up some pine warriors - Goran Dragic, Matt Barnes, and Robin Lopez.  While they didn't lose anyone important, neither did they gain.  In the upper echelons of the NBA, standing still in the NBA is the same as running backwards, and they were at best standing still, which is why so many are predicting a slide this season.

Mavericks: Another very experienced team. Thank goodness they got Diop back!  (You can check your sarcasm detector there.)  It's been said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, so it's a natural conclusion that Mark Cuban is insane. Or maybe they just needed more time to gel with their new, 36 year old PG.  They got older, but mostly aren't geriatrics, and lost no major pieces, so they didn't get better or worse.

Nuggets: They traded their best defensive player for nothing, and let their other defensive player escape to free-agency.  If I'm George Karl, I'm headed for the door right now.  This team is bound for the lottery, despite all their offensive firepower.

Warriors: Lost Baron Davis, and their new franchise player Ellis hurt himself skateboarding.  Or maybe in a zorb.  New acquisition Corey Maggette does not like to pass the ball.  Hope that's not a problem.  Anthony Randolph looked good in summer league.  I wonder if Nellie will ever play him.  I'm guessing no.  Got Marcus Williams in a fire sale... hmm, I wonder why he was available.  Crowning achievement - signing Ronnie Turiaf.  Did they get better?  Hard to say, but I'm leaning towards no.

Blazers: We lost our best three point shooter, ouch.  But hey, we got the number one pick in the draft and the most heralded center since Tim Duncan back.  We also have the euroleague multi-tournament MVP vying for minutes, along with the summer league MVP. So many irrelevant MVPs.  Even so, getting three guys who could conceivably be contributors while losing one oft-injured wing has to be considered a huge improvement.  Soon, we'll find out how huge.

Kings: Picked up a couple of what could turn out to be decent rookies with Thompson and Greene and lost Ron-Ron.  Given my issues with Artest, I think this makes them better.  Maybe not much better, though, and they weren't very good to start with.

Clippers: Lost Elton Brand, gained Baron Davis and Marcus Camby.  Also picked up Ricky Davis so they'd be able to put a team on the floor that's majority Davis.  Nice.  Also got Jason Williams from Miami, go figure, huh? Signing Brian Skinner was the crowning piece.  It's hard to say how effective Brand will be coming off the injury, but comparing the output to that of the old Brand, it's hard to see how the Clippers didn't end up worse off.  Keep in mind I'm not a huge fan of Baron Davis in this assessment.

Timberwolves: Nice pickup with Mike Miller, not so much with Brian Cardinal. Didn't lose big Al, their only player going into the summer.  Remind me who's going to play center for these guys?  Calvin Booth, Jason Collins?  It's surely not going to be Kevin Love. They also grabbed Carney in the off-season. One could argue they got better, but starting from where they did, it was difficult not to.  I still expect them to finish near last in the conference this year.

Grizzlies: They got dope Darrell Arthur, Marc Gasol, Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, and O.J. Mayo in the off-season, while losing Mike Miller, their best veteran.  Gasol may start.  If anyone saw the Olympics, you know Marc was not the scoring threat his brother is, he's more of a space eater type.  Anyway, though they were thoroughly terrible last year after dumping Gasol for pennies on the dollar, they improved little, if at all, because they lost Miller.

Thunder: Hopefully these bastards will lose every game.  I won't be watching.  But sentiment aside, they didn't lose anyone important (only Ridnour, who really wasn't) while gaining Westbrook, who may be decent.  They got better, but are still surely bound for the cellar.

Executive Summary: Among the teams with a real shot at the playoffs, the L*kers and Blazers got better, the Nuggets and Spurs got worse, the Warriors mixed it up big time, and the rest spent the off-season hoping that this was the year it would all come together. The Hornets and Jazz are young enough that standing pat may not hurt them.  But to my mind, people who are touting 50+ Blazer wins are not talking solely from the perspective of fan hysteria.

This comes up occasionally in salary cap discussions, but in order for the Blazers to have the flexibility to do much of anything next summer, they need to resolve the cap hold issue for their number 6, 8, and 9 picks from the 2005 draft.  That is, they need to either extend Webster, Frye, and Diogu, or they need to trade them before next year's free agent season, if those players' cap hold aren't going to be locking cap space during free agency.

They have until the end of this October (well, just before, when the season starts) to do so.

If they fail to extend these players and have not traded them, each player creates a "cap hold" at the end of the season valued at twice their would-be salary.  This may be old news to everyone who reads this blog, but let's look at what's been happening with the top ten in the draft class in question.

1. A. Bogut - extended, 5 years, $60M
2. M. Williams - not extended by Cheap-lanta
3. D. Williams - extended, 4 years, $70M
4. C. Paul - extended, 4 years, $68M
5. R. Felton - not extended (and Charlotte just drafted another PG)
6. M. Webster
7. C. Villanueva - not extended
8. C. Frye
9. I. Diogu
10. A. Bynum - likely max extension derailed by knee injury

It's pretty clear that Diogu is not likely to be extended, given his newness to the team, injury history, and lack of significant NBA minutes as a result.  With this team's depth, he's looking like the 11th or 12th man on the roster.  The active roster is pretty sure to be:

• Brandon Roy
• LaMarcus Aldridge
• Greg Oden
• Travis Outlaw
• Martell Webster
• Steve Blake
• Channing Frye
• Rudy Fernandez
• Joel Pryzbilla
• Jerryd Bayless
• Sergio Rodriguez
• Ike Diogu

With LaFrentz inactive and Batum in the Development League much of the time.  Given Webster and Frye's production, they are more akin to their peers that have not been extended (M. Williams, R. Felton, and C. Villanueva) than the ones that were.  Frye only played 17 minutes a game last year - that number is likely to go down, not up, with the addition of Oden to the front-court rotation, as barring injuries Frye will be getting his minutes strictly behind Aldridge this year.

Webster's career and 2007-2008 season numbers aren't the kind that compel any kind of contract extension at this point.  He has shown improvement each year, but he's far from a proven NBA starter at this point.  He's going to have to show this year he can be a consistent outside threat and strong team defender to keep his starting job - the team added a lot of talent in the off-season.  Even if he plays very well, he'll be hard pressed to see 28+ minutes on the court a game like he did last year.

My Conclusion: The Blazers will not extend any of these players before the season starts.

So what does this mean for free agency next year?  Well, it depends on whether they move any of them.  Next summer, Webster will be 22 and Frye 26.  Obviously, how they play this year has a huge bearing on what the Blazers decide to do, but Webster in particular is still a young player with both athleticism and a decent jump shot.  If his three point percentage improves as much this year as it did last year, I'd expect them to try and re-sign him next summer, after they extend Roy and Aldridge.

Frye may be the perfect backup for Aldridge, and a capable starter if he can't go on a given night.  If he's productive in limited minutes like he was last year, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the team sign him to a new deal either, though that would depend on what they're given to match.

It's a well-worn cliche that the GM is always looking to make the team better, while minimally disrupting what's working.  If the right deal came along, the team would move any of the three.  But if they have the kind of year most of us expect them to, I think it's more likely that they won't.  Which means next summer's free agency may be one we mostly watch from the sidelines.

But don't fret.  Looking at the list of free agents available next year, it doesn't appear we'll be missing out on much.

It was hot today in Portland, so it was a good day to spend some time in an air conditioned theater.  So I saw the newly released film, Gunning for That #1 Spot, a movie about eight high school kids, ranging from sophomore to senior, who played in an event organized at Rutger park.  It's a documentary, and was shot by Adam Yauch of the Beastie Boys.

The movie highlights several seniors (at the time) you're heard of, including Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Donte Green, and Kyle Singler (of Medford, Oregon , now at Duke).  The juniors will be college freshman next year, Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings, and the lone profiled sophomore, Lance Stephenson will be a freshman in the fall of 2009.

It also featured Jared Bayless, our newest Blazer.  From the film, he is clearly a very focused, conditioned athlete with a supportive family.  He also had trouble finishing with his left hand, and is a better scorer than he is a passer (he finished the game with less than five assists - I think it was three - Brandon Jennings had 15 for the other team, but Bayless did have Beasley on his team who is a major boll-hog), and has good size for a point guard but only so-so size for a combo guard (which is what based on his passing skills is what it looks like he will be, in the NBA).

Does that description remind you of anyone? 6'3", 200, trouble finishing with the left, limited passing skills?  He never stepped out of bounds, though.  Anyway, Bayless looks like a perfect fit for the KP culture, he is composed and mature, and clearly hungry to prove himself and become an elite player.  What his long term role will be on this team, it's unclear.  I've got to say, though, I think his impact this year will be limited.

As we know, Pritchard likes to talk about "his guys."  He says the team does its homework, makes its decisions, and based on that they have one, maybe two players up at the top of the board the team considers "our guys".  In 2006, they were Aldridge and Roy.  In 2007, our guy was Greg Oden.  They were thrilled when his best friend was available to the team as a second round pick, but McBob wasn't "our guy."

As we come up on Thursday, I've been musing whether the Blazers have identified one or more of the players in this draft as "our guy(s)."  I'm going to assume for the moment that past performance is predictive of future performance.  In the past two years, Pritchard has drafted only among the players the team has brought in to work out - no player that has not worked out for the team has been drafted (and kept).  But, to quote Freeman, "...over the past 22 days, the Blazers have held 13 private workouts and evaluated 52 prospects."  Again, just speculation here, but if the Blazers draft anyone to keep, chances are it'll be one of those players.

So that eliminates deals that involve people like Bayless, Gordon, Mayo, Beasley, Love and the like.  Those players didn't work out here.  Pritchard is not going to draft them, and he's not going to trade for them from a team who drafts them for us.

We know the team has serious long-term concerns at the point guard spot. There has been a lot of talk about the team "not getting any younger."  Well, I don't think the organization expects to win an NBA title next year, either.  So if a point guard is taken, and they get significant minutes next year, they'll be coming up to speed with the rest of the team's time line.  To my mind, this is consistent with Roy getting more minutes at point guard too, as the Quick chat today attributes McMillan as saying was likely.

There has also been a lot of talk about the team needing "veteran experience."  Players with a proven track record of playing and winning on playoff and championship teams, and of taking mentoring roles on those teams, are few and far between.  Among point guards, Billups fits the description, but he's BYC and would make for a tricky deal.  Still, it's possible.  I like Andre Miller at PG too.  Philly might be willing to let him get away for some players more appropriate to their curve.

Assuming the ESPN rumor is true, the Blazers have five draft picks now, a mid-first rounder, a late first rounder, and three in the second round.  You don't need to be a genius to know they can't draft and keep five players on the roster.  If they want to draft a point guard, I think the guy has got to be Augustine or Westbrook, and those players aren't on the board at #13.  So if they want a point guard, they're going to have to move up.  Packaging the #13 and #27 along with a player (probably one of the ones with the salary cap hold issues) for a higher pick, say between six and ten, seems like a definite possibility.  I get the feeling "our guy" in the draft this year is not a point guard, though.

People have been saying that the Blazers have a problem at small forward.  To the extent this is true, I think the primary problem is getting defensive intensity and consistent offense from the position.  Experience will help there.  If McMillan is talking about giving Outlaw minutes only at the SF position next season (also mentioned in today's Quick chat), it must be because there are going to be minutes available there, and few minutes to go around at PF.  That implies that Webster is on the way out, and Frye is going to be kept.  So I'm going to venture that the player dealt with the picks to move up, if that happens, is Webster.  But drafting another young player for the PF slot just strikes me as unlikely, too.

Among veterans, Richard Jefferson has been to the finals, isn't a relic, and is available for the right price.  He also fits nicely into the possible hole trading Webster would create, allowing Outlaw to continue to come off the bench (which he prefers).  And New Jersey is rebuilding.  He would potentially fit the culture here.  On the other hand, he's had some injury issues, and would need to fall in line behind Roy's team leadership - possibly a tough pill to swallow for an All-Star and seven year vet.

Then there's still the overseas picks from previous drafts to think about, Koponen and Freeland.  Will they be part of any deals?  You've got to expect at least a couple of the second round picks to be.  In my many random thoughts, I have one thing that I'm fairly sure of - when the draft is over, the average age of Blazer players on the roster will be older, not younger.

The trick to the NBA Draft is that it's very difficult to say how strong they really are until years later.  We all think the 1984 draft was one of the strongest of all time.  Many people think the 2003 draft was just as strong. It's been five years, has enough time  passed to judge the 2003 draft?  I think so.  For the purposes of this evaluation, I'm using six categories, ranking zero to five.  At the top - Super-Star, then All-Star player, Starter, Rotation (>12 minutes a game), Bench (in league for at least 5 years), and Washout.  Players with chronic injury issues are numerically knocked down one level.

1. LeBron James - Super-Star (5)
   
2. Darko Milicic - Starter, injury issues (2)
   
3. Carmelo Anthony - All-Star (4)
4. Chris Bosh - All-Star (4)
5. Dwyane Wade - Super-Star, injury issues (4)
6. Chris Kaman - Starter (3)
7. Kirk Hinrich - Starter (3)
8. T.J. Ford - Starter, injury issues (2)
9. Mike Sweetney - Washout (0)
10. Jarvis Hayes - Rotation (2)
11. Mickael Pietrus - Rotation (2)
12. Nick Collison - Starter (3)
13. Marcus Banks - Bench (1)
14. Luke Ridnour - Rotation (2)
15. Reece Gaines - Washout (0)
16. Troy Bell - Washout (0)
17. Zarko Cabarkapa - Washout (0)
18. David West - All-Star (4)
19. Aleksander Pavlovic - Rotation (2)
20. Dahntay Jones - Washout (0)
21. Boris Diaw - Rotation (2)
22. Zoran Planinic - Washout (0)
23. Travis Outlaw - Rotation (2)
24. Brian Cook - Bench (1)
25. Carlos Delfino - Rotation (2)
26. Ndudi Ebi - Washout (0)
27. Kendrick Perkins - Starter (3)
28. Leandro Barbosa - Rotation (2)
29. Josh Howard - All-Star (4)

Second round notables (non-washouts) are Kapono (2), Luke Walton (2), Steve Blake (3), Willie Green (3), Pachulia (2), Bogans (2), Bonner (1), Mo Williams (3), James Jones (2), and Korver (2).

Overall, while the total first round score is a 59, six points better than the 53 of the 1984 draft (which, it should be pointed out, had only 24 picks), the depth of the draft was extraordinary, as a stunning 10 players are still in the league from the second round, all but one of them as starters or rotation players, adding 22 more points for a total of 81.

In comparison, the draft of 1984 had only a few later round players of note - Jerome Kersey, Ron Anderson, and Rick Carlisle.

Surprisingly, the 2004 draft first round was on paper a little stronger than the 2003 draft, at 60:

1. Dwight Howard - All-Star (4)
2. Emeka Okafor - Starter, injury issues (2)
3. Ben Gordon - Rotation (2)
4. Shaun Livingston - Starter, injury issues (2)
5. Devin Harris - Starter (3)
6. Josh Childress - Rotation (2)
7. Luol Deng - Starter (3)
8. Rafael Arujo - Washout (0)
9. Andre Iguodala - Starter (3)
10. Luke Jackson - Bench, injury issues (0)
11. Andris Biedrins - Rotation (2)
12. Robert Swift - Starter, injury issues (2)
13. Sebastian Telfair - Rotation (2)
14. Kris Humphries - Rotation (2)
15. Al Jefferson - Starter (3)
16. Kirk Synder - Rotation (2)
17. Josh Smith - Starter (3)
18. J.R. Smith - Rotation (2)
19. Dorell Wright - Starter (3)
20. Jameer Nelson - Starter (3)
21. Pavel Podkolzine - Washout (0)
22. Viktor Khryapa - Washout (0)
23. Sergei Monia - Washout (0)
24. Delonte West - Starter (3)
25. Tony Allen - Rotation (2)
26. Kevin Martin - Starter (3)
27. Sasha Vujacic - Rotation (2)
28. Beno Udrih - Starter (3)
29. David Harrison - Rotation (2)

One difference is, this draft had a more typical 7 additional points in the second round via four players, Anderson Varejao, Royal Ivey, Chris Duhon, and Trevor Ariza, for a total of 67.  As you've probably read elsewhere, the thing that made the 2003 draft amazing was the sheer number of good players available.

Still, I think it's too early to evaluate the 2004 draft.  Not only are there players there who look like possible to likely future All-Stars (Deng, Iguodala, Jefferson, Josh Smith, Kevin Martin), there are others who are probably going to wash out of the league and whose present value may be inflated versus an analysis done at the end of their careers.  That said, another difference between the 2003 and 2004 drafts, and the reason for the higher score is that there were fewer busts in the latter.  Still not a sterling testimonial for Nash, the 2004 draft.

Speaking of which, all of this is a separate question from the draft value of players to the teams that actually held their draft rights when draft night was over, which is a better measure of the performance of drafting team GMs.  Of course, the real measure of a GM is does he bring home a championship trophy.  Say what you want about Danny Ainge, such as, that he's a no talent hack who happens to have a good friend who was willing to give him KG for Jefferson, some draft picks, and filler.  But the Celtics are poised to win a title.  The same argument could be made about Kupchak regarding the Gasol trade.

What about this draft?  I guess we'll have to check in five years.

This is the time of year there are a lot of trade scenarios floated on the net, many of which involve teams trading their 10th or 11th player and a middling pick for another team's second or third best performer. Obviously, these kind of deals just don't happen (Gasol trade aside).

Still, Kevin Pritchard is crafty, and in each of the last two drafts has managed to make something happen to improve the team. This past year, it was addition by subtraction, dumping Randolph for Frye, and giving the team cap room in 2009. What might we expect this June?

Continue reading this post »

Not with the team, right. He's been relieved of all duties to the team. He's not expected to practice, etc.

But, what were the results from the tests in NY? Are the Blazers going to be able to take him off the books next year or not? If not, they need to waive him for the roster spot, but his salary still counts against the cap.

We're talking nearly $10M here, all of which is over the tax because of the Francis/Randolph trade. It's Allen's money, he can afford it either way, but we've heard nothing lately.

Anyone?

I'm kidding of course, there's a lot of good basketball left to be played this season. It's not clear how much of it going to be by the Blazers, of course, but hopefully they'll be able to use this time to further season their future stars.

Still, looking forward to the draft and free agency and eyeballing our current roster, it's hard to help but speculate what off-season moves Pritchard has in mind for the team for next season.

So, let the speculation begin...

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I was hoping that the Blazers would play some meaningful games in March and April this year, but it's not to be. Well, they won't be meaningful for the Blazers, anyway - there are a lot of western conference playoff teams on the docket that will be looking hungrily at this Blazers team they have a good chance to beat.

Meanwhile, though most everyone would like to see the team finish at .500 or better, there will be the usual small chorus promoting a tank so the team can get a better draft pick.  Unfortunately, I suspect they may get their wish...

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We had a good run, but though Hollinger's playoff odds has the Blazers at 35% to make the playoffs this year, that may be a bit optimistic.

No one can predict the future, of course, and past performance doesn't always predict future performance, but it does tend to give a sense of how things are likely to go.

Keep in mind, also, that the Blazers have been relatively healthy this year, with no major players going down with extended injuries.  Hopefully that will continue, but obviously, significantly injuries have a major effect on team performance.

More detailed analysis below the break...

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It's nearly a quarter of the way through the season.

What are your grades for the Blazers?

Greg Oden: INC

The season's biggest disappointment.

Darius Miles: F

Like Oden, he's injured.  So why the "F"?  Because we've been waiting forever for him to retire and come off the books, and he hasn't.  If he'd retire, that right there would make this a good season for me.

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If there's one thing to be said about Greg Oden, it's that his reputation precedes him into the NBA.  Much of the reason he may not have Shaq-like numbers in his rookie season is that he's going to get double-teamed on his first touch in an NBA game, and on 99% of touches after that, probably (and hopefully) throughout his career.  Even Kareem didn't see that kind of attention until his prime.

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You might have read the recent Marty Burns article at SI.com that picked the Blazers to finish 13th in the western conference.  As (ostensibly, since you're here) a Blazers fan, this might have rankled you a bit.  I'd like to take a moment to contrast that against what the professional sports betting line setters think.

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It's my understanding in order to match any offers Travis gets in the coming weeks, the Blazers have to make a qualifying offer to him before July 1.

I haven't read anywhere that they've done so, though many other teams have made qualifying offers to their restricted free agents according to press reports.

Does anyone know if the Blazers have made a qualifying offer for Travis?