An interesting draft scenario (assuming the CBA gets done):

 

Denver trades #2 to CIN for #4, #35, #100

Denver trades Orton to MIN for #43

 

This gives us #2, #35, #36, #43, #46, #68, #100, #188, #194, #244

 

Next, Denver trades #36, #43, #46 and #100 (1550 points) to CLE for #6 (1600 points), to SF for #7 (1500 points) or the same package without #100 (now a total value of 1450 points) to TEN for #8 (1400 points) 

Dkn what reasons these teams would have for trading down, but with a package like this, I’d bet one of these teams could be tempted enough to pull the trigger.

 

My goal in this draft is to obtain 2 of the 5 players that I believe with have the highest impact on the defensive side of the ball.  These 5 players are (in no particular order) Dareus, Fairley, Miller, Peterson and Bowers.  I believe with picks 4 and 6-8 we can land 2 of these players. For the sake of actually putting players to these picks, I’m going to proceed by taking Dareus at 4 and miller at 6-8. 

 

I would also like to end up with Stephen Paea at #35 as I think he is one of the better playmakers in the draft and will do wonders for our run defense while providing an adequate pass rush for a DT. 

 

 

So:

 

#4   DT Marcel Dareus

#6-8   SLB Von Miller

#35 DT Stephen Paea

 

 Leaving us with:

#68   - 

#100 – maybe

#188 – TE Julius Thomas - i like him as a late round flier

#194 –

#244 -

 

 

How does everybody feel about the first few picks of this draft?  also how would you all fill out the remaining picks? would you aim for a different 2 of the 5 players?

 

I'm interested to hear everybody's thoughts on this scenario.   

I was just wondering about this and thought I'd ask the group.

Is it just me or does this seem like a weak LB class.  After von miller (who i really really like, but is a reach at 2), I'm having a really hard time getting excited by any of the LB's in this year's class.  I'm intrigued by Mark Herzlich, because i think he will one day come all the way back from the cancer, but other than that no one really excites me.

 

 

I realize the broncos have a huge need for 2 starting caliber LBs, but I'm feeling like the broncos would be better finding stopgaps if/when there is FA and waiting until next year to draft a long term replacement.  am i wrong?

anyone have any LB's other than Von Miller that they're hoping for and can sell me on?

In Improv88's excellent and thoughtful post about Kyle Orton (which rebutted an also insightful post by TheGreatGuesskowski, found here), he very articulately compared being a QB in the NFL to being a musician.  This is a very accurate comparison because both require a great deal of natural talent and hard work to master and require one's best performance under the most extreme pressures in their fields.  While I agree with improv88's principles, I have a different take on how to apply them and it is as follows (a bit reorganized from the verson i posted in the comment section of Improv88's post for better clarity in conveying my train of thought - with some new added tidbits)...

Continue reading this post »

But I would like to call for the job of DJ williams.  Both of the 50+ yard runs happened because he was way out of position (along with the 5-yard TD and a whole host of other runs today).  

This is not the first time for him, either.  He has been cited as a major problem with the run D, when it doesn't work, by more knowledgeable people than I, in more analytical posts than this.  DJ has been around too long for him to still be making stupid mistakes like this.  These are the mistakes that rookies make -- not veteran team leaders.  

Granted, I'm a little emotional right now so that may be what is fueling this post.  These last few losses have been incredibly frustrating, but I had done a better job of keeping the faith until this one.  I don't want McD fired.  I do like a good number of the current players, but DJ has been in the middle of too many collapses to have my faith.  

DJ is not a pro bowl ILB and we should trade him to someone else who is foolish enough to think he is one (before we wait too long and this team doesn't exist).  We should trade him and whatever else we need to give up (within reason) to draft a stud ILB (ideally mcclain) and still have a relatively full compliment of draft picks on top of that (we have other wholes to fix as well).  

I was (and to a lesser degree still am) decidedly against drafting an ILB in the 1st round because we have too many other areas to address in the draft and FA (interior O-line, D-line, youth in secondary, KR/PR), but if the picks to do it come from trading DJ, then I want this move to happen ASAP.

 

 

****Later Edit -- a more rational analysis of DJ Williams play during the big plays in jamaal charles' highlight reel.****

 

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010010312/2009/REG17/chiefs@broncos#tab:watch

go to this page and watch the video labeled "WK 17: Jamaal Charles Highlights"

(i tried to link the video itself but couldn't figure out how, so this will have to do.)

 

the first play is a 3rd and 7 run in the first quarter.  broncos line up in a 4-3 over (i hope i'm using that term right.  i think that means toward the strong side) alignment --  DJ at WILL.  charles runs weakside between guard and tackle before juking dawkins and going 52 yards up the sideline before he is tackled by goodman.  

upon further review, i will take blame for this one away from DJ.  dumvervil overruns the play thinking it will be a pass and more devastatingly, peterson is easily turned inside by their LG.  this leaves their LT free to block DJ while charles runs behind him untouched.  this one is actually on peterson and dumervil, folks.  peterson should have diagnosed a run and held his ground better -- it is his job to occupy that space.  dumervil was caught off guard by the run on 3rd and 7 as he was clearly trying to speed rush the edge for the sack.  DJ needs help.  Although, if doom had been on his feet as a LB, he might have played the run better (coaching question?).  

 

The second play is in the 2nd quarter.  on  2nd and 9, the chiefs come out in a single back big set with both WR to the offense's right.  broncos come out in a base 3-4 but with both CB's manned up on the WR -- DJ at SILB.  the broncos send Jarvis Moss from WILB on a blitz through the weakside A gap (between guard and center) and looks like he will break up the play in the backfield, only to be ridden out of the play by their LG (future HoF'er Brian Waters, in case anyone was wondering).  Peterson is again turned away from the ball, this time by their LT, while DT marcus thomas is cleared out by their C with ease.  Doom is the only man to cover the outside cutback to the D-gap (between TE and sideline) and does not factor into the play as it runs through the middle.  charles runs between LT and C.  DJ's first step is to the outside (wrong) and he is blocked backwards by their RG before he beats the block (about 8 yrds downfield) first to the outside, causing charles to cut back behind the guard and be tackled by hill (and DJ in pursuit) about 10 yards downfield.  DJ doesn't play this perfectly (and if his first step had been toward the direction of the run, then this could have been stopped for 2-3 yards) but considering this didn't technically come through his gap, for sure, I can't say that it's entirely his fault.  If, however, DJ was supposed to be responsible for the weakside A-gap (quite possible, although i am not sure how the broncos run this play) then he was out of position and failed in his responsibilities on the play.  

 

The third play is a 2nd quarter 3rd and 1.  the Chiefs line up in an I formation with the FB to the weakside.  the broncos are in a base 3-4 alignment -- DJ at WILB.  As the play begins to unfold, we see KC running a zone blocking scheme for this play.  DJ takes on the FB at the line of scrimmage and pushes him backwards in the A-Gap.  seeing that Williams is blowing up the inside run, Charles then decides to bounce it outside, where every defensive man is occupied by a blocker and no one is able to defeat their blockers.  Renaldo Hill, the only defensive player running free meets Charles 9 or 10 yards downfield, where charles slips the tackle.  Eventually Dawkins catches up and forces him out of bounds for an 18ish yard gain.  This play is actually a very good read by DJ.  He blows the play up inside, Charles just makes a good cut to the space on the outside.  Blame for this long run could be put on DE Vonnie Holliday and once again, Dumervil.  

Play number four takes place on a 2nd and 12 in the 4th quarter.  The chiefs line up in a standard single-back formation -- 3WR 1TE, weak-side slot.  The broncos counter with what looks like a nickel 3-3-5 with the DL and SLB Mario Haggan shifted to the strongside (Haggan looks to be matched up on the TE in man-to-man coverage and is positioned accordingly) and the remaining LB's, DJ at MLB and Robert Ayers at WLB shifted to the weakside. at the snap, the DL rushes to the strongside, while DJ and Ayers both blitz wide of this play's Weakside DE, Marcus Thomas -- resulting in five pass-rushers 1-on-1 with 5 O-lineman.  Ayers is forced to the outside by the LT.  Meanwhile DJ is badly beaten by LG Brian Waters, who pushes him 3 yards back and turns him squarely away from charles who runs right through DJ's gap.  DJ gets beaten badly by Waters on this play.  It eventually goes for a 14 or so yard gain as Renaldo Hill badly misses another tackle about 9 yards from scrimmage.  

The fifth play is a 3rd quarter, 2nd and goal from the 5.  The chiefs line up I-Form Big (2 TE).  The broncos set up inin a Base 3-4 look, but with some shifts:   CB Andre Goodman is ligned up roughly where you'd expect a FS to be and FS Renaldo Hill is shifted to where you'd expect a SS to line up -- SS Brian Dawkins becomes an eighth man in the box for this play as he moves up between SOLB Haggan and SILB Davis. The run is a Weak side off-tackle run.  The TE drives Dumervil to the outside (the gap he's probably supposed to be in considering where Goodman is lined up) and LG Waters successfully blocks WDE Peterson from the gap where the LT would be: the gap through which Charles wants to run.  The LT allows DJ to get to the outside before engaging him and driving him with his momentum and out of the play.  Their FB blocks Hill and Goodman is useless on the play (he's still in the endzone) and Charles scores untouched as Goodman does not meet him until after he has crossed the goal line.  It is hard to tell what DJ's assignment was on this play, but it's clear that he probably didn't do a good job.  He was nowhere near the line of scrimmage when he was near Charles, so it doesn't look like he made a good choice in terms of his route to the ball-carrier.  He moved almost completely laterally on the play, never toward scrimmage, and was blown back by the LT.  Once downfield, he did manage to force charles back to the inside where he had help, though.  Goodman was pathetic on this one.  

The sixth play is on 1st and 10 in the 4th quarter.  KC comes in the I-Form Big set again.  The broncos in an Altered 3-4 - the OLBs are tight to the inside, right next to the DEs and CB Goodman and FS Hill do the same shift as on the last play.  Dawkins, however, is now lined up where goodman normally would line up against this set as the weakside CB.  The play is to the D-gap (between TE and WR on the strong side).  The LB blocks SOLB Haggan, and SILB Andra Davis takes a terrible angle to Charles and isn't even close to him.  On this play, DJ Williams saves a sure TD.  DJ comes across the formation, outruns the RG who is dispensed to block him, then he runs down Charles and tackles him 25 yards downfield near the sideline.  Charles had beaten everybody and DJ saved this play from being a score with his incredible speed.  Very few LBs make this play.  

Play number 7 is a 4th quarter 2nd and 4 that would eventually be the 56-yard TD run that would enrage me enough to write what I had originally posted.  Both teams line up the same way as the previous play, but with Dawkins and Hill switched -- Dawkins was in a normal place for a SS, while Hill lined up like a weakside CB and Goodman set up downfield like a FS.  The run is another off-tackle play just like the previous one, however this time, Dawkins, unlike Hill on the previous play, plays it correctly and is standing exactly where Charles would like to run past the line of scrimmage, forcing Charles to try to cutback toward the inside. SDE Ryan McBean, SOLB Haggan and SILB Davis have all sucessfully moved laterally and shut down the outside run on this play.  They have taken the strong side TE, the RT, and the RG with them.  Since DJ moved only laterally (and not toward the line of scrimmage) in backside persuit of the play, the C was able to meet him roughly 7 yards downfield.  This, coupled with NT Marcus Thomas' complete lack of awareness and subsequent overrunning of the play upfield past Charles (it looks like he's going after the QB), left a huge gaping cutback lane between the two Guards with the C to take on DJ and lead block for Charles.  DJ realizes his mistake and very quickly defeats the C's attempt to block his legs, but it is too late.  The speedy Charles has already run past DJ and the C while this was going on.  Goodman was again pathetic on this play as Charles easily slipped his attempted tackle two yards downfield from DJ and the C.  He couldn't even slow Charles down enough for DJ to recover.  

 

 

I'm not sure what to make of all of this.  DJ has all the potential and physical gifts in the world, but makes costly mistakes that a linebacker with his 6 years of NFL experience shouldn't make.  DJ's ability saves sure touchdowns while his mistakes create new ones out of what should be no more than two or three yard gains.  I don't know what is in DJ's future.  What does everyone think?

Poll

What do you think?

33%

DJ needs to go

5 votes

66%

DJ needs help

10 votes

15 votes | Poll has closed

Hi guys! 

 

Let me start by saying that this is my first fanpost here at MHR.  I’ve been an avid reader for almost three years now and finally got an account around draft-time this year.  I feel that my knowledge and understanding of the game of football and what is happening both on the field and off has increased exponentially in the past couple of years, and I credit the fantastic writing in posts and the generally incredibly high level of discourse even in the comments sections here at MHR as the reason.  I want to thank the whole community here for that.  Also, as a student at a music conservatory, it can be kind of difficult to get my football-talk-fix, so you guys really save me on that one.  So, now that I finally feel like I’ve learned and retained enough to make a relevant positive contribution, here I go… 

 

As someone who just two weeks ago finally finished rehabbing an ankle injury that has been a nagging problem since a year ago July, I think that I’m justified in saying that ankle injuries are tricky.  My injury was actually a mild sprain (much like Kyle Orton’s) that I tried to come back from too quickly, which as a result never fully healed. Using the ankle too soon caused a constant tearing and re-tearing of the ligaments that would flare up every so often over the course of the year.  It got progressively worse (and more frequent) until it began bothering me every day at the end of the day and so I began a second attempt to rehab it in late July of this year.  That seems to have fixed the problem for now, but this was a long and arduous process. 

 

Details of the second course of rehab included cortisone injections and 3-4 weeks of ankle immobilization.  After those 4 weeks came time in a walking boot and then a switch to motion-control sneakers, while attending physical therapy 3 times weekly for 2 hour sessions for the duration.  For the entire length of the rehab I have been under a doctor-recommended ban on cutting sports.  Think about that length of time -- from the end of July until two weeks ago.  That’s a little more than THREE MONTHS!  Needless to say, I think we would all hate to see anything like this happen to Kyle Orton. 

 

Knowing this about the past few months of my life, you would think that I would not advocate playing Kyle Orton until he’s back at 100%.  And you’d be right.  Except for Chargers week, and here’s why…

 

The Chargers come into the game tied with the broncos at 6-3 for the divisional lead.  If they win this game, then they will be 7-3 and the Broncos will sit at 6-4.  The broncos will no longer have the head to head tiebreak. The tie break will be very significant for the Broncos, especially if Orton is out or any length of time.  Without Orton, our tough but manageable end-of-season schedule looks a whole lot more difficult. 

 

Let’s go down the list of how divisional tiebreaks work in the NFL.  They can be found in this post by go4broncos, which was made on Monday and first got me thinking about the issue of whether or not to play Orton.  After overall win-loss records and head-to-head records are tied, divisional records are examined.  I worry about playing in Arrowhead in December, but I have faith in McD and company (and the Chiefs are terrible this year).  Let’s predict that both teams win all their games against jokeland and KC. Both teams would then be 5-1 within the division. 

 

The next tiebreaker is record in common games:

 

Both teams lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. 

 

The Chargers have beaten the Eagles and Giants. 

This puts them at 2-2 having yet to play Cincinnati, Cleveland, Washington and Dallas. 

I would predict wins against Cleveland and Washington, a loss against the Bengals and the Dallas game going either way. 

By these predictions, their end of season record would then be either 5-3 or 4-4, depending on the Dallas game. 

 

The Broncos have beaten Dallas, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. 

They have also lost to Washington. 

This puts the broncos at 3-3 having yet to play New York and Philadelphia.

I predict a loss to New York without Orton, but I believe we could win it if he’s healthy enough. 

I predict a win against the Eagles.  (B-Dawk sees possible retribution upon the team that forsook him and decides to TAAAAAAKKKKEEEEE IIIITTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.)

These predictions would leave the Broncos with an end of season record at -- you guessed it -- either 5-3 or 4-4, depending on the Giants game. 

Man, that Washington loss really hurts us here.

 

The next tiebreaker is Conference winning percentage:

 

The broncos are currently 5-2 within the conference (and would be 5-3 after this hypothetical loss)– still to play Indy and the 3 divisional games.  My guess for these games is a 3-1 finish with the loss coming to the Colts.  Leaving the Broncos with a 8-4 conference record.  

 

The Chargers are 4-3 and would be 5-3 after this hypothetical win – still to play Cleveland, Cincinnati, and the Chiefs and Raiders, once each.  By my previous predictions, this would be a 3-1 finish leaving SD with a -- again, you guessed it – 8-4 conference record.  (Uncanny, isn’t it?!)

 

Next in the tiebreak line is Strength of Victory, which is the winning percentage of teams we’ve beaten:

 

Assuming my predictions are correct, both teams will have beaten OAK and KC twice, CLE, PHI, and each other once

We would also beat CIN, NE and DAL (which could end up being a common victory as well)

They would also beat WAS, TEN, MIA, NYG (which also could be a common victory…  and let’s say they lose to Dallas)

 

What we now notice is that unless SD loses games they should win, a win on Sunday, by my predictions, gives them an 11-5 record (12-4 if they beat DAL) to our 10-6 (11-5 if Kyle’s healthy and we beat NY).  However, we also see that we likely win the divisional tiebreak if they drop a game they shouldn’t and/or the Dallas and New York games shake out in our favor.  That’s the mixed blessing of having NE and IND instead of MIA and TEN.  Their win vs. Tennessee against our loss to Indy is discrepancy, but with a tie the fact that NE is better than MIA all but assures us the win. 

 

 A Bronco win Sunday likely locks up the division for us as both teams would be 11-5 (without the NY and DAL games) and the Broncos will hold the head-to-head tiebreak.  This game is likely be the most important of the regular season this year,  which brings me back to the Orton debate… 

 

Because this game is so important, I would say that if Kyle can play at even 70% on Sunday, he will give us the best chance to win and should play.  However, as I’ve been saying in a couple of comments to other posts, He should be shut down immediately after the SD game until he is 100%.  We don’t want to mess with lingering ankle trouble, but this game is too important to the outcome of the season. 

 

What does everyone think?