SB Nation User Blog: ball in play

Will Ohman and FA lhrp's

ball in play — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 18:34:01 -0000

joe strauss reported the cardinals have made an offer to will ohman. why?

he's the only lhrp stl has made an offer to that i have seen reported. in an effort to understand the orgs reasoning, i will share the research i have done. not that it answers why, but these stats could be behind their offer.

here is a list of the FA lh relievers, their 08 team, and compensation status. using baseball prospectus quality of batters faced (OPS) and each pitchers OPS allowed results from 2008.

the difference column to sort results. negative result (-) has the pitcher holding his batters OPS below what they (batters) did vs mlb. a positive result (+) is the pitcher allowing a higher OPS to his batters, than what they (batters) did vs mlb.

......................................OPS...............OPS.............OPS

2008..............................faced..........allowed..........diff..........IP..........FA type

a. rhodes.............fla......782...............524..........-.258..........13.............B

..............................sea....770...............590..........-.180..........22.............B

b. fuentes............col.....743...............570..........-.173..........62.............A

w. ohlman...........atl......766...............640..........-.126..........58.............no pick*

d. reyes..............min......761...............658..........-.103..........46............B

b. shouse..........mil........747..............656..........-.091...........51...........B

j. beimel.............lad........746..............671..........-.075...........49...........B

d. oliver...............laa........746..............682..........-.064...........72...........A

j. affeldt...............cin........746..............733..........-.013...........78...........B..................................signed 2 yrs/8 mil with giants 11-17-08

a. embree..........oak.......774..............769..........-.005...........61...........B

c. manning...was/stl......781*.............782..........+.001..........42...........team control

r. villone..............stl.........750..............754..........+.004..........50...........no pick

t. miller................tb..........763..............787..........+.024..........43...........B

c. fossum............det.......754..............806..........+.050...........41..........no pick

r. flores................stl.........725..............883..........+.158...........25..........team control

three things stand out for me. ohman's no compensation status, mannings quality of batters faced and flores VERY poor results vs. a very low quality of batters faced.

rhodes lack of innings and fuentes expected contract $, make ohman the first choice by OPS difference and compensation status.

mozeliak and ricciardi impact trade for 09?

ball in play — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 06:29:31 -0000

in the "decision time" post by chuckb, he cites joe strauss as expecting gm mozeliak to trade, rather than sign from free agency this offseason. to trade from a perceived surplus of outfielders and rh relief pitchers. if accurate of mozeliaks intentions, our gm could use the established trade history, of the rolen for glaus trade of 2008.

here's an opportunity for the pitching heavy bluejays to trade arms for outfielders, in an impact way. the trading of closer b.j. ryan would double the funds ricciardi has available this offseason, by clearing a 2yr / 20 mil contract off the books. toronto's bullpen is a monster, imo, that could absorb ryan's loss. could the flexability gained by trading ryan be used for the resigning of burnett? or persue a different FA starting pitcher.

mozeliak has a 31 blown saves issue to address from 2008. ryan would be an impact acquisition larussa desires. but mozeliak concedes perez for ryan, moving a valuable piece from his "grow from within" orgs approach. to balance the trade by position........

.....................................................................b.j. ryan, s. downs and t. snider for ludwick, ankiel and perez..................................................................

ricciardi gains 62 bombs from 2008 in ankiel and ludwick. there's some serious impact to his 2009 club. he trades away a closer and setup man in ryan and s. downs. gains one year of ankiel and three years of ludwick, and 8 mil budget relief in 2008. he could use the 8 mil in 09 to resign ankiel to an extension. ankiel lf, wells cf, rios rf and ludwick dh and 4th outfielder. lind as #5.

mozeliak has a dominant closer and setup man in place the next two years. downs as the lh bullpen arm the roster lacks. he needs t. snider in return for giving up ankiel and ludwicks production. snider at 21, is prospect #11 on the same top 100 prospect list where rasmus is ranked #5. snider, rasmus and mather starting in 2010, is free for 3 yrs and dominant 5 of their 6 yrs, imo.

mozeliak moves his two oldest outfielders and gives tlr these outfielders to choose from in ST of 2009.......duncan, schumaker, mather, barton, rasmus, snider and stavinoha. tlr chooses the first 5 but gets his veteran relief help. give to get tony. barton over snider won't last, but tlr knows he needs a platoon partner for his nephew in LF :)

ludwick and ankiel are cashed in at possibly their highest value remaining in their careers. ankiels FA status after 09, is traded away. ludwicks 3 arb years of 09, 2010 and 2011 are traded away. 2 outfielders and a rh bullpen arm have been used in the trade. if ankiel, ludwick get 5.6 in arb combined and perez at 0.40, mozeliak uses 8 mil of the 20ish mil currently available.

kick it around as much as you like, if it interests you. sure their are many issues this type of trade creates (the dropoff of outfield production in 09?). pros and cons?

Renteria in 2009?

ball in play — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 14:24:27 -0000

rumor has it, that DET will try and move edgar renterias' 11 mil. contract for 2009, or buy him out for 3 mil. to just go away. from the DET point of view, the 3 mil. buyout would be waisted budget $. if they could trade him for any player with 3 mil. value, they at least have a player in return for the $ they are committed to, rather than noone. finding a team to take on the 8 mil. difference, is the task. doesn't this suggest DET finding a mutual dump partner? does renteria have 11 mil. value to the other mlb teams? does he have the 8 mil. difference value to mlb teams, if DET would consider taking on at least 3 mil. in a trade? DET is locked in for 3 mil., whichever approach they choose (trade or buyout), they might as well get a player in return. the added player could always be released at no expense to DET, over renteria's buyout.

i'll throw a proposal out there from STL, and let it be shot to swiss cheese. there is a need on STL's part to fill the shortstop role for 2009, with the farm not ready to produce a league average player at that position. here is just one possible scenario.

renteria for pineiro straight up, 11 mil. (renteria) for 7.5 mil. (pineiro). STL takes on 11 mil., 3.5 mil. over the pineiro contract, for renteria. DET takes on 7.5 mil, 4.5 mil over the 3 mil. renteria buyout. DET mulls over the offer a week, and decides they would like to split the difference of payroll added for 2009 with STL, both teams using 4 mil. of their budget remaining. they counter propose renteria for pineiro and 0.5 mil. cash.

should DET offer this proposal, renteria for pineiro and 0.5 mil. cash? does pineiro have 4 mil value to DET as a swing man?

should STL agree to the counterproposal? renteria at 11.5 mil., 4 mil. from the available 2009 budget used over the pineiro contract, with pineiro traded away. STL now has to replace the innings pineiro was in line to receive, but the starting ss is in place for 4 mil from the budget available.

should STL just wait for renteria to become a FA after his buyout? will he make it to his buyout? or will DET find a trading partner along these lines, and renteria never becomes available on the FA market? many teams could use an upgrade at shortstop.

both players will be FA's after 2009. pineiro has good career #'s at DET's stadium. renteria needs a return to the NL. thoughts?