I have not heard this mentioned about Rendon, maybe because it is too far-fetched, but what is the possibility of him being converted to a second baseman?   I read before that some felt he is athletic enough to play shortstop in a pinch so second may not be such a stretch.  And if there are issues with his shoulder, second base may be more manageable for him anyway.  The thought of a bat like his at second base is certainly enticing.  Thoughts, anyone?

Please help me rank the following players to keep for 2011, based not only on their potential as prospects but also on their potential to actually contribute at the major league level.

Desmond Jennings

Mike Moustakas

Dustin Ackley

Jesus Montero

Eric Hosmer

Julio Teheran

Craig Kimbrel

Chris Sale

Jason Kipnis

OK, so I'm not quite at 75 words.  So taking 2012 into consideration, please also consider the rankings of

Mike Trout

Wil Myers

Bryce Harper

Anthony Rendon

Gerrit Cole

Matt Purke

Thanks!

This season is going down the tubes for my team.  Time to start planning for 2011 and beyond.   I could use some advice on which players to pick up/keep for next season.   Thanks!

1B  Justin Smoak vs Logan Morrison

2B  Dustin Ackley vs Brett Lawrie

SS  Starlin Castro... runs hot and cold now, but what is his true potential and does he stick at SS?

3B  Mike Moustakas... not showing much discipline in AAA... is his upside greater than Alex Gordon?

SP  Please rank  Aroldis Chapman, Julio Teheran, Martin Perez, and Zach Britton

for a 12 team roto 5X5 keeper league.  I have some similar players who I have grouped together for consideration:

1) Please rank these keepers for long-term value (the next season or two):

Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Grady Sizemore

2)  Also please rank the following rookie/minor leaguers for long term value (up to 2 or 3 seasons):

Mike Moustakas, Justin Smoak, Travis Snider

3)  Finally, please rank Dexter Fowler, Desmond Jennings, and Mike Trout (up to 2-3 seasons)

for a 12 team roto 5X5 keeper league.  I have some similar players who I have grouped together for consideration:

1) Please rank these keepers for long-term value (the next season or two):

Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Grady Sizemore

2)  Also please rank the following rookie/minor leaguers for long term value (up to 2 or 3 seasons):

Mike Moustakas, Justin Smoak, Travis Snider

3)  Finally, please rank Dexter Fowler, Desmond Jennings, and Mike Trout (up to 2-3 seasons)

Now that we've reached the halfway point, what is your assessment of Ackley?

1)   How has the move to 2B been going and can he stick at 2B in the majors or have to move to a less "valuable" position?

2)   What is his ETA?

3)   What would be a typical stat line for him once he's established?

4)   Is he still the top-ranked 2B in the minors or has someone else surpassed him?

Yeah I know it's early for draft thoughts but McCC has turned me into a draftjunkie.   Besides, the time to start thinking about the next draft is as soon as the current draft is over.

Of course, much can change between now and June 2010.  We could lose our 1st round pick (it better be for a GOOD reason, Sabes!) or we could pick in another position instead of, or in addition to, #24 (Grant surmised at #19... Tigers to sign Molina?).  

But for the purposes of this retrospective I will look at the 24th pick of the First Round across the history of the draft.  In any given year the 23rd pick could have turned out to be a total washout and the 25th pick could have been the superstar of the next decade, but since we appear to have the 24th pick in 2010 I will focus on that pick alone.  I won't go into a detailed statistical analysis of the success rate of 24th picks... I'll leave that to obsessivegiantscompulsive if Martin so chooses to tackle that.  Instead I will look more informally at the players selected 24th so we can hopefully get an idea of what to expect and set our expectations accordingly.  I did not go to as great a depth as to look up every player's career stats, but I have been a baseball fan for a good many years and have a pretty good idea as to who did or did not have a decent major league career.

Bear in mind that the draft itself and the art and craft of scouting has changed a lot since the advent of the draft in 1965.  In the early days the success of a draft pick was more dependent upon the work and diligence of the scout, the bird dog travelling the back roads to uncover that hidden gem of a prospect that no one else had sniffed.  Today, prospects and information on prospects are much more accessible to everyone, and there is a great deal of statistical, physical and psychological analysis performed.   There are also more teams, more prospects, and significantly more money involved.   The concept of "signability" is a relatively recent one, and while teams in the past may have shied away from players they absolutely knew they could never sign, teams that pick later in the draft nowadays seem to have a better chance to obtain a major talent than in the early days of the draft, just based on the names I have turned up while doing this retrospective.

So, looking back on the draft by decade, we see:

60's
The draft started in 1965 and the first round only went up to 20 picks.  From 1965-68 the 24th picks were actually in the 2nd round,  and were:  '65 Ken Lampard, HS OF, Astros;  '66 Joe McCoullough HS IF, Red Sox; '67 Daniel Cary HS P, Mets; '68 Ken Johnson, HS SS, Yanks.  To my recollection, none of these players became accomplished major leaguers.  It wasn't until 1969 that the first round included 24 picks, and that year the 24th pick, a HS 1B selected by the Padres, was noteworthy to Giants fans not because he ever accomplished much in his career, but for that one magical spring training with the Giants in the early 70's.  Anyone remember Randy Elliot?

70's

This decade was also filled with 24th picks who never made their mark in the majors.  The only two who had a notable degree of success were Rich Dauer of the Orioles, a college 3B selected in '74 and Steve Nicosia, a starting C the Pirates took out of HS in '73.

80's

The 80's were nearly as barren as the previous decades, although I am proud to point out that the most accomplished 24th pick of the decade was none other than Terry Mulholland, whom the Giants selected out of college in '84.  The Brewers picked Alex Fernandez out of HS in '89 but he did not sign.  Chris Donnels and Jim Lindeman had rather brief and marginally successful careers.

90's

The bookend picks of the 90's were probably the most noteworthy of the entire decade.  In 1990 the then Expos took HS OF Rondell White who became a good player, if not the superstar he initially appeared he would become.  In '99 the Giants selected LSU righthander Kurt Ainsworth, who had flashes of success, but whose career was derailed by injuries.  Just as a note, the year before that the Giants picked at #25 and selected Nate Bump, RHP from Penn St.  The only other player who had even a little success was Brian Buchanan, a 1B selected out of college by the Yanks in '94, the same year the Giants selected Dante Powell at #22.

2000's

This decade has fared better for the players selected #24.  Perhaps it is just luck of the draw or perhaps the art and science of drafting has improved.  Or signability has raised it's sizeable head.  Who knows?  In any case, the noteworthy picks are from 2002, Joe Blanton, out of UK to the A's (the Giants took Matt Cain with the next pick...YEAHHH!);  2003, Chad Billingsley out of HS to the Dodgers (the Giants had taken David Aardsma at #22). In 2001 Macay McBride, HS LHP, went to the Braves, and had a brief but marginally useful career in middle relief (the Giants had taken Brad Hennessey at #21 that year) and Landon Powell, C taken out of college by the A's in 2004, has been a useful back up.  The players taken in the latter half of the decade are still plying their trade in the minors and could still make their mark in the majors.

So what does all this tell us?

Hopefully something at least.  And that is that the overall chances of the Giants getting a successful major leaguer out of the 24th pick are not that good.  While I would rather keep that pick than see the Giants lose it by throwing wads of cash at a washed up veteran as they are wont to do, I think the Giants need to make like the Tigers, Yanks and BoSox and go hard after the signability pick who has dropped to them.  Or focus on pitching since they have had pretty good success selecting arms when picking in the low 20's.  And while I have fretted about the Giants losing their first round pick by signing a Type A free agent, having done this retrospective and getting an idea of what it is the Giants may actually be losing, I won't feel so bad if the Giants give up their pick by making a smart signing.  Repeat, SMART signing.

As the Giants' postseason aspirations become less and less realistic a frightening possibility becomes more and more likely.  The Giants are in danger of being sent to Draft Purgatory... not good enough to enjoy a taste of the postseason but not bad enough to have their first round draft pick of 2010 protected in case they sign a Type A free agent in the off season.  For Giants fans, this cursed existence is known as the Tucker Zone, not to dishonor Michael Tucker, but to mark the painful memory of Brian Sabean intentionally forfeiting a first round draft pick by signing Tucker.  For some organizations living in the Tucker Zone would certainly be better than a perpetual existence in Draft Hades (that's you, Pittsburgh Pirates), but with Sabean being the overlord of the Tucker Zone we Giants fans might be facing an offseason of "Hello, LaTroy Hawkins" or  "Welcome to SF, Magglio Ordonez", and "Goodbye, First Round Draft Pick."

So my question to you McCoven is that if the Giants are clearly not going to make the postseason would any of you be disappointed if the Giants totally tanked down the stretch (in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year anyway) and ended up with a protected first round pick in 2010 or would you rather see the Giants finish strong to build some momentum and warm fuzzies for 2010?   As much of a longtime fan I've been (since the early 70's), I am actually leaning towards the former scenario.

Kevin Frandsen, SS, San Francisco Giants: Looks healthy which is the important thing after missing the season due to a torn achilles. Line drive bat, hits to the opposite field, hustles, won't have much home run power. Played shortstop down here and looked fine, can handle second base no problem defensively.

Good to hear Frannie's making a strong comeback.  I'd say he would have to be the frontrunner for the regular 2B job.  So the early returns for the infield would show 1B:  TI, 2B:  Frannie, SS:   EB, 3B:  Pablito, C:  B Money.

Perhaps many of you know this already, but I just saw it posted on MLB.com on the Giants team site.

Buster has been sent back to Arizona so he can get more regular playing time in the instructional league.  He had been playing only every third day or so since there is a rotation of three starting catchers in the Hawaiian Winter Ball league.

Also in Arizona are Villalona and 16 year old Dominican signee Rafael Rodriguez.

Knowing Buster is not busted is a huge relief.  And it also shows the Giants are serious about his development, preferring he gets regular playing time and instruction rather than a more limited, though more "prestigious" gig in Hawaii.

at least the first that this cheapskate could find on a site where I did not have to pay.

It is on some site called draftinfo.wordpress.com and the first 10 picks are:

1. Washington Nationals- Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State

2. Seattle Mariners- Grant Green, SS, USC

3. San Diego Padres- Alex White, RHP, UNC

4. Pittsburgh Pirates- Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri

5. Baltimore Orioles- Dustin Ackley, OF, UNC

6. San Francisco Giants- Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS, Georgia

7. Atlanta Braves- Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS, Texas

8. Cincinnati Reds- Ryan Jackson, SS, Miami

9. Colorado Rockies- Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State

9a. Washington Nationals (For failing to sign 2008 1st rounder Aaron Crow)- Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS, California

10. Detroit Tigers- Robbie Shields, SS, Florida Southern

This order seems pretty reasonable to me. 

I love the pick of Tate by the Giants.  And I'm sure it will drive the Braves nuts since he is likely #1 on their board.  It is the kind of pick that could turn out really well if the player reaches his potential (e.g.  Bruce with Cincy). But I fear the SF management might consider the pick of Tate to be too big of a risk for the following reasons:

He has leverage in that he could choose to attend college and play football (and baseball).

He has tools galore, but can he translate them into performance as a pro?

They may be more inclined to choose a college hitter

There are some pretty good pitching prospects likely to be available at #6, possibly Crow (#11 in this mock), Purke, Givens (may be chosen as a pitcher, went #15), Turner (polished HS arm who can crank it up to 97, #13), and a hopefully healthy Scheppers (went #21).

Even though the season is not yet over, I don't see the Giants finishing with a worse record than the Nats, Mariners, Padres or Pirates.  If the season ended right now,  they would have the #7 pick since the Orioles would win the tiebreaker, having had a worse record last season.  In any case it is likely the Giants will "earn" a top 10 pick for 2009.

For the past two drafts I have been hoping the Giants would use their highest draft picks to address the shortage of position prospects in their farm system.  In 2007 they did not do that, but I don't think anyone can vehemently complain about the picks of MadBum and Timmy2.  This season they did a fine job of drafting high-upside hitters.

Now with the 2009 draft in mind I am beginning to have a change of heart.  It is still early and several hitting prospects might burst on the scene, but right now none of the choices is overwhelmingly compelling.  It would be nice to have a great defensive shortstop who can hit for power, but Grant Green could be off the board at #2 (right after Strasburg).  Donovan Tate is incredibly talented and could be the second coming of Bo Jackson but he is thought to want to play both football and baseball in college.  Mychal Givens, a SS/P, is compared to this year's #1Tim Beckham, but he may actually be a better pick as a pitcher.  Dustin Ackley is someone I would want the Giants to draft if he could ever show more power hitting potential, since he doesn't fit the prototypical slugging corner OF/1B mode.

So if the Giants pick a pitcher I would not be terribly disappointed for two reasons.

First, there seem to be more pitching prospects than hitting prospects at this early juncture.  Off the top of my head I can think of Alex White, Kyle Gibson, Aaron Crow, Matt Purke,  the aforementioned Givens, and if he is healthy, Tanner Scheppers.

Second, the performances of Cain and Sanchez this year have caused me some concern that neither will ever develop into a solid and reliable #2 or #3 starter.  With MB and T2 being unproven, albeit promising, it would not hurt for the Giants to add another strong pitching prospect to the fold.

Does anyone else have any early wish lists for the 2009 draft?

Madison Bumgarner was officially named Minor League Baseball's Most Spectacular Pitcher today, making it two years in a row that a Giant farmhand has won the award after Kevin Pucetas won it last year.  Go to www.minorleaguebaseball.com. 

The award, which is somewhat of a misnomer, is solely based on the best ERA in the minor leagues.  But it could justifiably have been given to Bumgarner if it was based on truly the "most spectacular performance" by a minor league pitcher.   Enough has been discussed about MadBum's performance this year that I don't need to rehash his stats for all you McCoven.  Let's just revel in the promise of the future that the young arms in the Giants system holds.  

This has literally been bugging me for years.

My earliest baseball memory, and possibly my first exposure to baseball ever,  was a game I saw on TV when I was very young.  It was probably in the late 60's or early 70's (yeah, probably before most of you young whippersnappers were born!). 

For some reason I think it took place during a pennant chase or even in the post-season since I got the impression it was a very important game.   My memory is fuzzy but I vividly recall some details.

The game ended when the centerfielder (?) climbed the outfield wall, reached over the fence, and robbed the hitter of a homerun, then threw the ball back to the infield to double up the baserunner who was either tagging up to 3rd or trying to get back to 2nd.  Now here are some other details... I didn't realize it until I learned baseball better, but I now believe the runner who was thrown out was a pitcher because he was wearing a warmup jacket on the bases.  And he must have been a pitcher who was in the game, as opposed to a pinchrunner, precisely because he was wearing the jacket.  The color of the jacket leads me to believe the team at bat was the Orioles.  I am not so certain about the team in the field, although I do recall lighter colored uniforms and for some reason I seem to think it could be the Yankees or Tigers.   I cannot picture the details of the stadium but I do recall that the wall must have been at least 8 ft high, since in making the catch, the outfielder ran back and jumped onto the wall with his right leg and simultaneouly grabbed the top of the wall and propelled himself way over the wall to make the catch.

In the days before the internet, I actually wrote to some sports publications hoping they could help me identify the details of the game, but to no avail.  So now I will try again.  Does anyone out there know which game I am describing?

I am not going to undergo regression hypnosis or seek out a oracle, and I am definitely not going to buy farmland in the central valley in order to mow it down to build a ballpark so they will come and replay the game.  But it would be nice to know since it really made an impression on me... much to the chagrin of my parents I  spent many afternoons reenacting that final play using the walls of our house as the outfield fence... and I have become a lifelong baseball fan.

Twas the night before Draft Day, when all through Mays Field
Not a creature was stirring, not even Lou Seal.
The draft boards were hung by the 'puters with care,
In hopes that a big hitter soon would be there.

Giants fans were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of walk-off homers danced in their heads.
And Brian in his jersey, and Dick in his cap,
Had just settled their brains for a brief  pre-draft nap.

When out on the grass there arose such a clatter,
They sprang from their seats to see what was the matter.
Away to the window they flew like a flash,
Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.

The moon on the breast of the new-fallen dew
Gave the lustre of mid-day to the field all anew.
When, what to their wondering eyes should appear,
But a scoundrel in a sleigh, and some baseball play-ers.

With that little old driver, so greasy and fast,
They knew in a moment it must be Scott Boras.
More rapid than eagles his "advisees" they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name!

"Now Pedro! now, Eric! now, Alex and Nick!
On, Toolsy! On, Greedy! on, Overhyped, come quick!
To the top of the porch! to the top of the wall!
Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all!"

As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,
When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky.
So up to the Big Glove the coursers they flew,
With the sleigh full of bats, and St Boras too.

And then, in a twinkling, they heard nice and neat
The prancing and pawing of each little cleat.
As they drew in their heads, and were turning around,
Down the chimney St Boras came with a bound.

He was dressed all in fur, from his head to his foot,
And his clothes were all garnished with jewelry and loot.
A bundle of cash he had flung on his back,
And he looked like a peddler, just opening his pack.

His eyes-how they twinkled! his dimples how merry!
His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry!
His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,
And the beard of his chin was as green as his dough.

The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth,
And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath.
He had a broad face and a little round belly,
That shook when he laughed, like a bowlful of jelly!

He was chubby and plump, a right smarmy old elf,
And they cringed when they saw him, and cowered themselves!
A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,
Soon gave them to know they had so much to dread.

He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,
And laid out all his contracts, then turned with a jerk.
And laying his finger aside of his nose,
And giving a nod, up the chimney he rose!

He sprang to his sleigh, to his team gave a whistle,
And away they all flew like the down of a thistle.
But they heard him exclaim, ‘ere he drove right away,
"If you want to deal with St. Boras, get ready to PAY"

Twas the night before Draft Day, when all through Mays Field
Not a creature was stirring, not even Lou Seal.
The draft boards were hung by the 'puters with care,
In hopes that a big hitter soon would be there.

Giants fans were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of walk-off homers danced in their heads.
And Brian in his jersey, and Dick in his cap,
Had just settled their brains for a brief  pre-draft nap.

When out on the grass there arose such a clatter,
They sprang from their seats to see what was the matter.
Away to the window they flew like a flash,
Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.

The moon on the breast of the new-fallen dew
Gave the lustre of mid-day to the field all anew.
When, what to their wondering eyes should appear,
But a scoundrel in a sleigh, and some baseball play-ers.

With that little old driver, so greasy and fast,
I knew in a moment it must be Scott Boras.
More rapid than eagles his "advisees" they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name!

"Now Pedro! now, Eric! now, Alex and Nick!
On, Toolsy! On, Greedy! on, Overhyped, come quick!
To the top of the porch! to the top of the wall!
Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all!"

As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,
When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky.
So up to the Big Glove the coursers they flew,
With the sleigh full of bats, and St Boras too.

And then, in a twinkling, they heard nice and neat
The prancing and pawing of each little cleat.
As they drew in their heads, and were turning around,
Down the chimney St Boras came with a bound.

He was dressed all in fur, from his head to his foot,
And his clothes were all garnished with jewelry and loot.
A bundle of cash he had flung on his back,
And he looked like a peddler, just opening his pack.

His eyes-how they twinkled! his dimples how merry!
His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry!
His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,
And the beard of his chin was as green as his dough.

The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth,
And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath.
He had a broad face and a little round belly,
That shook when he laughed, like a bowlful of jelly!

He was chubby and plump, a right smarmy old elf,
And they cringed when they saw him, and cowered themselves!
A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,
Soon gave them to know they had so much to dread.

He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,
And laid out all his contracts, then turned with a jerk.
And laying his finger aside of his nose,
And giving a nod, up the chimney he rose!

He sprang to his sleigh, to his team gave a whistle,
And away they all flew like the down of a thistle.
But they heard him exclaim, ‘ere he drove right away,
"If you want to deal with St. Boras, get ready to PAY"