In my 14-team dynasty league, I want to head into the auction next year with ~$90 to spend on the remaining 9 spots (we can keep 19 major leaguers and 4 minor leaguers). I'm considering making serious offers for Bautista, who's $2. I asked his owner what he'd want for ol' Joey Bats, and he responded: one of either Votto ($34) or Stanton ($10), one of either Avila ($3) or Santana ($14), and David Price ($12); he'd throw in someone like Bumgarner ($11).

That's just too much to yield, IMO, even despite Bautista's amazing contract. Still, it was less outrageous than I expected, and I'm thinking of countering with Youkilis ($23), Chris Young ($4), and Hanson ($30) for Bats and Strasburg ($11), and would even consider including Avila b/c I'm deep at C with Travis D'Arnaud and Ryan Lavarnway waiting in the wings, in addition to Santana. I also have Nelson Cruz ($20) that might be worked in there somehow.

Would I still be giving up too much? Or am I crazy to dream on this at all? Or somewhere in between?

I'm in a 12-team, 5x5 roto league that uses OPS instead of AVG, starts 2 C, MI, CI, 5 OF, and 1 U. Each teams has a $100 free agent budget to start the season. It's a complete redraft league. 

So, I have $63 left of my FAAB. My CI/U guys right now are Dunn, Freeman, Smoak, and Hafner. The FAAB process is the one where if the winning bid is more than $10, the winner gets the player for the second highest bid +$1, or $10 if the second highest bid is under $10.

It's a pretty active league, especially in terms of the waiver wire, but also in terms of trades (so I could move some of the talent if I needed to).

How much should I bid on Hosmer?

I'm in a pretty non-typical H2H Dynasty League that just finished it's first year. We're keeping 15 players (of 28 spots) and will steadily increase that number over the next two years. We can also keep 3 minor league players that don't count against the 15-keeper total. 14 teams; Hitter stats: wOBA, HR, TB-HR, AVG, SB-CS; Pitcher stats: QS, SV+HD, FIP, WHIP, K. There's also a $300 budget, so lots of things are a little off.

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I read a few days ago that the Twins might be 'targeting' JJ Hardy.  I'm not sure if we could somehow get Kevin Slowey off of them, but if we could, would you do it.  I know I would.

Slowey, coming off a solid age 24 season, could reach Super 2 status in 2009 and be arbitration eligible after the season, but if he doesn't, he'll be pre-arb until after 2010.

Slowey doesn't walk anyone.  His K% are decent (18.8% last season in the majors), but not great, though they would stand to improve in the NL. 

Hardy's coming off seasons with 26 and 24 HRs, plays above average D at a premium position, had his highest walk rate since his rookie year, and will be entering his peak seasons, which still figure to be pretty cheap (he made $2.65m in 2008).

Why would the Twins do this?  Because they think they can win now, and that have the pitching to do so. 

What do you all think?

Regardless of how this season ends up, there's a lot of work to do, a lot of things to think about for next year.  Are we really going to go into the 2009 season with Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, McClung/Villanueva as the rotation.  I don't feel completely comfortable with any of those guys.  Bush probably comes the closest for me because I have reasonable expectations of him: 200 IP of league average ball, and he's pretty much proved that he can do that by now.  Gallardo: great star potential, but if he takes some time to get back to form, we might be off to a slow start.  I'm very happy the team move Parra to the bullpen for the rest of the year, but he's had some health concerns in the past and this has been his biggest workload.  Suppan and McClung -- do I need to explain?  Villanueva is probably the next Aaron Heilman, and that's fine. 

What I've been thinking, and based on what's been bandied about, is that the Brewers are going to give Jack Z a lot of picks in 2009, and the team is pretty good at producing above-average-to-all-star caliber hitters, but pitching is always tricky, unless you are the Braves in the 1990s and early '00s.

My question is, who/what do we put our faith in?  The health of our pitchers and the ability of some of them to take big steps forward?  Jack Z in that we trade guys like Prince and/or JJ for starting pitching and hope that Z will have us restocked in short order?  (In the latter option we'd also be having faith in Gamel and Escobar to step up in regular roles, probably.)  I dunno.

I took a little time to compile the list below of 2008 salaries and projected (or actual, for players already under contract) salaries for 2009. 

A couple of notes:

1. for Sabathia and Durham, I only included the salary that the Brewers have to pay

2. in the "09 Option" column, Arb2, for example, means that the player will be entering his second arbitration year this upcoming offseason; FA is free agent; Club is club option on the 09 Salary listed

3. I'm not sure if the contracts given to guys like Callix Crabbe and Randy Choate count against what we normally consider 'payroll', because they are more veteran minor league deals.  either way, they would only shave $1mm off this years total

4. for guys in arbitration, i estimated the best i could based on what some other players got.  the estimation on Prince's salary could be high or low based on how you look at it.  i think he takes a little hit this season, but he's still a lot younger than Ryan Howard.  for J.J., i used Joe Crede's in his second arb year because he was a comparable player.

Please feel free to correct me or 'weigh in' because i just did my best -- i am no expert.

NAME                POS     08 SALARY         09ProjSal        09 Option
Sheets, Ben        SP     $11,000,000.00      $-                      FA
Sabathia, CC      SP     $4,950,000.00       $-                         FA
Gagne, Eric        RP     $10,000,000.00      $-                       FA
Suppan, Jeff       SP     $8,500,000.00      $12,500,000.00    
Durham, Ray      2B     $2,541,000.00      $-                          FA
Cameron, Mike   CF     $4,980,000.00      $10,000,000.00     Club
Hall, Bill              3B     $4,800,000.00      $6,800,000.00    
Kendall, Jason     C     $5,250,000.00       $4,600,000.00    
Riske, David       RP     $4,000,000.00      $4,250,000.00    
Capuano, Chris    SP     $3,750,000.00      $3,750,000.00    
Mota, Guillermo   RP     $3,200,000.00      $-                           FA
Torres, Salomon  RP     $3,200,000.00      $3,750,000.00     Club
Counsell, Craig    IF     $2,800,000.00      $3,400,000.00     Club
Hardy, J.J.          SS     $2,650,000.00      $4,500,000.00     Arb2
Bush, Dave        SP     $2,550,000.00      $3,750,000.00     Arb2
Shouse, Brian    RP     $2,000,000.00      $-                             FA
Weeks, Rickie    2B     $1,057,000.00      $2,000,000.00      Arb2
Kapler, Gabe       OF     $800,000.00      $-                              FA
McClung, Seth    RP     $750,000.00      $1,000,000.00       Arb2
Braun, Ryan        OF     $455,050.00      $745,000.00    
Fielder, Prince     1B     $670,000.00      $8,500,000.00        Arb1
Branyan, Russell  IF     $400,000.00      $-                              FA
Nix, Laynce         OF     $475,000.00      $-                            Arb2
Hart, Corey          OF     $444,000.00      $2,750,000.00       Arb1
Gallardo, Yovani   SP     $404,000.00      $450,000.00        Pre-Arb
Rivera, Mike          C     $395,000.00       $410,000.00        Pre-Arb
Dillon, Joe            UT     $393,000.00      $-                           FA
Munson, Eric         C     $525,000.00        $-                            FA
Crabbe, Callix       IF     $390,000.00        $-      
Choate, Randy     RP     $500,000.00      $-      
Turnbow, Derrick  RP     $3,200,000.00      $-                        FA
Parra, Manny       SP     $392,000.00       $444,000.00       Pre-Arb
                                    $87,421,050.00      $73,599,000.00     

So, it looks as if we'll have 'freed up' $14mm, but that assumes that Attanasio wants to keep spending that much. 

I would guess that we have to spend a little bit on a SP somewhere, given the nigh departure of our two best pitchers, and the uncertain health of several others.

I also assumed that, at this point, we are set to pick up Cameron's option.  He's exceeded my expectations, I don't know about y'all.

despite the $10mm, i think Gagne is a good risk for one year.  as an NL central "closer" he could have a monster year.  

but, does anyone think it's funny that he'll be playing for the Milwaukee Brewers.  That is, does anyone remember this quote (god bless the article archives at Baseball Prospectus):

"I don't want to be here if we're just going to play kids and rebuild. Yeah, I put my name on a contract, and I respect that. But the Dodgers' logo was on top of that contract -- not the Milwaukee Brewers or the Las Vegas 51s."
--Gagne, October 2005

i remember being quite livid about that one.  look what we've built now, Eric.  i didn't think Canadians were so short-sighted.

In case you haven't heard, the mashup nickname for this year's probable LF platoon is "The Grench."  The "The" is necessary at all times.  

It's too bad neither of them are that fast, otherwise there'd be a lot of How The Grench Stole Second jokes that we could make.  Or something.

We should have a new one every year!  This is fun!

This from Gotham Baseball Magazine:

The Brewers are trying to acquire TB's Carl Crawford, who sources say the club thinks is the final "piece to their puzzle", but the Rays don't want pricey ace Ben Sheets of [sic] Chris Capuano in return.  Instead they want to see if they can get the Yankees (who like both of those guys) involved.

The Yankees are interested in the Brewers' duo because they believe the Brewers' asking price is rair [sic].  However, the Brewers, who want a speedy, leadoff-type LF for 2008 and beyond, don't want Johny [sic] Damon in the deal.  So, there are efforts being made to get the three teams together before the Winter Meetings.

This is news -- there is perhaps now reason to believe that a big splash will be made by Moustache in the off-season.  As much as I love both Sheeter and Cappy, I have to say that I would trade either one to get Crawford, who is locked up through 2010 for a great deal (about $24.3mm over three years).  

What would the Yankees have to chip in?  The Rays probably don't need Melky Cabrera, but could have interest in Robinson Cano or Ian Kennedy, thereby making Iwamura available for another trade, perhaps for bullpen help.

Even if Matt LaPorta tears through the minors and is ready in 2009, either he or Crawford would be very tradeable next winter.  With Sheets likely to leave after 2008 anyway, and a rotation potentially seven deep, this might be something to pursue full-on.  Imagine:

Crawford
Weeks
Braun
Fielder

. . .

Looks pretty nice to me.

This would give us the lead-off guy and non-platoon LF we've been looking for, and great all-around player, and probably leave us with money to spend, either on Coco, or a new catcher.  We could also trade Gross, non-tender/trade Mench, and save a roster spot, allowing us bullpen flexibility.

Plus, to reiterate, Crawford is awesome.  Boom.

I've been fantasizing about a deal like this, and am glad there are other people -- affiliated with other teams, most importantly -- thinking that it's a possibility.  If there is really a Brewers source saying that Crawford is "the final piece to the puzzle," I think this could be very interesting.

What about y'all?

Per MLB Trade Rumors, the Brewers are on Curt Schilling's list of teams that he would play for.  He's said that he is willing (even wants) to sign a one-year deal, which would probably be for around $13-16million.

I've been toying with this idea for a while, but was unsure if he would consider the Crew.  Now we know he would.  If we really plan to compete in 2008, how would it be if we signed him and then traded one of our younger starter-type pitchers (Villy, Parra, Bush, Vargas, even Cappy) for a valuable bullpen asset or a catcher or something?  I like this idea, at least enough to bring it up.  Schilling is not dominant, but is certainly above league average, and with no commitment beyond 2008, we don't have much to lose longterm.    

What do y'all think?

This isn't much that we didn't already know, but it's always nice to have things put in a new light by additional experts.  

Anyway, the 2008 Bill James Handbook will have a section assessing the historically high levels of young talent in Major League Baseball right now.  This article at the Hardball Times gives a preview of  James' top 25 young talents framed by some very interesting stuff by Dave Studeman.  

Guess who's #1.  Guess who's #14.

I'm just gleaming Baseball Prospectus' fantastic statistic report generator, but here's where the Crew ranked as a team (MLB/NL) in a bunch of different categories in 2007:

OFFENSE:

VOPR: 237.3 (9/6) (NYA=356.5/PHI=338.0)
ISO: .194 (1/1) (next best is PHI=.184)
SLG: .456 (4/2) (NYA=.463/PHI=.458)
OBP: .329 (21/11) (does it matter? damn near everyone is better)
BB: 501 (24/14)
IBB: 60 (4/4) (!!!)
AVG: .262 (21/11)
HR: 231 (1/1) (next best is PHI=213)
B2R: 0.0497 (13/8) (doubles/PA)
B1R: 0.1406 (28/14) (singles/PA)
P/PA: 3.72 (23/11) (BOS=3.95/PHI=3.88)
SB%: 75.0% (15/8)

Conclusions: Not much surprise here.  We hit a lot of homers and a fair amount if doubles, and not a lot of singles.  Hence the MLB-leading ISO.  This translates into a good amount of IBB as well, since we're close to the bottom in BB, but close to the top in IBB.  Base-stealing, we're the epitome of league average, and are right around the "break even" percentage.  We can probably improve this by not having Bill Hall attempt (and I do mean attempt) stealing bases.  Rickie, Gwynn, and Corey are all above the 75%, while Brauny Paper Towels is right at it.  Limit our steal attempts to those guys, and we should be alright.

We need to take more pitches and walk more.  Those are related.  If we take more pitches, we're also like to improve AVG, because we'll get good pitches to hit in more situations.

Ok.  I'll do pitching next time.

I'm one of those geeks that thinks baseball managers have very little to do with things (winning/losing) in the long run, and make relatively few important decisions (the decision to not swing at a pitch out of the strike zone, for example, is probably more important than anything a manager decides in a given night).  At the same time, the decisions that managers do get to make are generally suboptimal, if you judge them based on leverage, win expectancy, and things of that ilk.

In reaction to the Brewers' extra-inning loss to the Astros on September 19th, I said that Cordero should have been brought in immediately to pitch the bottom of the 9th, or at least when Spurling got into trouble.  Zel123 responded:

So Coco comes in and does the exact same thing as Spurling and stetter.  Does he then go out in the 10th?  So even if the brewers score, then who's left to close out the game?  

Ned made the right move with Coco.  It's a classic managerial move to not bring your closer in on the road when you do not have the lead.

This "classic managerial move" derives, mostly, from a simpler paradigm that often prevents managers from effectively using their bullpens: don't bring in your closer in a non-save situation.  

There are a number of problems with this thinking.  First, it is easy to say, "So Coco comes in and does the exact same thing as Spurling and Stetter," in RETROSPECT; we can't judge a risky decision based on its results, only on whether it was an example of effective risk management at the time the decision was made.  At the time that Ned made the decision, it was a suboptimal to bring in either Spurling to start the inning, or Stetter to try to finish it.

Second, by my assessment, the fact that we were on the road actually makes the argument stronger for using Coco in the 9th -- giving up even a single run means that the Crew would lose.  Aside from the fact that we suck on the road and so Ned should be protecting a chance to win on the road like a lioness will rip your face off to protect her young, the very fact that the road team cannot make up for any runs surrendered from the 9th inning on should dictate that Ned enact the best possible scenario to prevent a single run from scoring from the 9th inning on.  Ned won't get a chance to use Coco with a lead if he lets the Astros score when the teams are tied.  To think like Ned did seems backward to me.  Especially because we only had 11 games left after that one, and were tied for first at the time.  He can't fool around with Stetter if he really wants to win in a scenario like that.  

I think that we can all agree at this point that Coco is the only reliable reliever that we have -- the one most likely to post a scoreless inning on any given day, all other things being equal.  Can we all agree that it was very important to do everything possible to win that game?  Why take a bigger chance than necessary?

Coco was on two-plus days rest at that point -- he hadn't pitched since the previous Sunday afternoon -- which means that using him in the 9th does not preclude sending him back out there in the 10th.  He could have pitched a second inning and kept the game alive.  

Even if the offense couldn't muster a few runs, and Ned had to pull Coco to no avail, that's all that a manager could do to win or lose the game, and that's all we could ask Ned for.  He can't make guys hit.  Hell, he can't even make Coco pitch a scoreless inning -- anything can happen once the pieces are set in motion: there's always chance/risk involved.  But it's Ned's job -- and it becomes more and more important everyday -- to align those pieces to to minimize risk as much as it can be minimized.  He got lucky with Spurling and Stetter; he wasn't so lucky with Wise.  He might have gotten unlucky with Cordero, but he would have had to have been FAR UNLUCKIER with Coco than with anyone else.  

Short of mismanaging the bullpen like this or pinch-hitting Laynce Nix for Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun on a regular basis, Ned can't do much to lose games.  As it stands, it seem like he does his damnedest sometimes.

The sooner Ned gets it out of his head that Coco = Save Opp. Only, the sooner we eek out a few extras wins that help us win a division title.  Even throughout the year, why pitch Coco when he have a 3-run lead in the 9th?  Let someone else pitch and get a "save" -- let's "save" Coco for the one-run games, the tied games.  Let's not lose stupid.  

It's one thing to plan for next week in May when you're 15 games over .500.  It's another to do it when a loss today could be you're out of the playoff picture.  It's getting to that point.

If we were really going to make a run at Gagne, why wouldn't we have saved guys like Thatcher and Inman for that trade, instead of wasting them on Linebrink?  I think we really could have gotten it done with Inman and other prospects -- maybe Zach Jackson.  Plus, Gagne is much more likely to be a Class A free agent than Linebrink, which means better (or at least more certain) draft picks.  Gagne is a difference maker, Linebrink not so much.  I mean, maybe Thatcher/McClung/Jackson/Balfour could have given us what Linebrink will.  What do y'all think?  

Also, I find it funny that Gagne did not block the Brewers, considering that he made some disparaging remarks about the Crew being a small market team back when he was in LA.  Of course, the Seligs owned the team then.  My how things have changed.  I would have been fully willing to forgive Eric his remarks if he came to Milwaukee.  I might have even been willing to call Milwaukee "Lil' Montreal" around him.  Ok -- maybe that's too much.  

Anyway, I think Nate Silver said it best when he said Doug Melvin gets the Krivsky award for this season's trade deadline.  Am I being too harsh?

from mlbtraderumors.com

The Brewers have considered the possibility of a Jermaine Dye trade.  Kenny Williams apparently wants Derrick Turnbow or Manny Parra, which actually sounds reasonable.

Okay, if we move Turnbow for Dye, I'd be pretty okay with that.  Dye's been heating up with a 1.056 OPS post all-star break.  Small sample size, but I think that he's still capable of coming close to that for a half season.  He would just be a rental, as he's a FA after this year, but then we could also get a couple of draft picks for him when we let him walk, which is also nothing to sneeze at.  I mean that's less of an incentive for us than it is for say, the Nationals acquiring Eric Gagne (where draft picks are the ONLY incentive), but we probably need to restock the farm at some point soon.  

I always like trades in general, so is my excitement getting the better of me here?  Would this really improve our team, for the stretch run and the future beyond that?

Some things could happen that make him not start, but we'll at least see him out of the bullpen.

So, I'm hoping that we get solid starts from Bush, Suppan, and Vargas in Minnesota (don't we alwasy hope for that?) so that the kid can throw on Monday (i'm especially excited because I have tickets for the game).  

I know there's a lot of people on both sides of whether or not he should start, but whatever you feel, you have to be excited to see how he does now that it's going to happen.

Here's to a speedy recovery for Cappy, too.

mlb.com article

quick Q&A with Yovani

Update [2007-6-14 20:33:9 by Jeff]: Man, I'm busy all day and look how much I miss! I thought it was a night game, so I didn't see a single pitch, though I probably added a couple of years to my life by missing the ninth.

Needless to say, I'm clearing my schedule for Monday night. I can't friggin' wait. How exciting will it be the first time somebody hits a grounder to third base off of Gallardo? Get Weeks back, and we'll have Yo, Prince, Rickie, JJ, and Ryan Braun all on the infield. At the rate we're going, we might even still be in first place at that point!

Hey I'm looking to start a new kind of league.  

I've been thinking of having an auction, but for real money.  Each team would have to spend at least $35 and a max of $60, but it can vary within that.  However much they spend on players is what they pay into the pot.  therefore, there will be anywhere from $350 to $600 in the pot (not counting transaction fees, which would be $0.50 apiece), but probably closer to $600.  might include a $7 flat league fee to pay for the site -- tqstats.com.  Thus, max cost would be $67.

I'm not sure that I'm going to do that selection type -- what do you think?  And, would you be interested?

What I am sure of is that the scoring will be a rotisserie head-to-head: each week you score rotisserie points against the entire league, but you're weekly point totals will only count against one other person in terms of wins and losses.  so let's say I'm first in the league in ERA for the week, I get 10pts, but you only get 8pts for being third.  I beat you in that category.  Money will pay out both the head-to-head (i.e. playoff winner) and rotisserie champs and runners up, with the former winning more than the latter.

Check out the scoring options on tqstats.com and you'll see what I mean.

Other quirks include using Quality Starts instead of Wins, and OPS as opposed to BA.  Maybe HRA for pitchers, or K:BB.  I should have this all figured out soon, but if even if you're not interested in joining up, I'm interested to know what you all think might make a better fantasy league.

ZJ's MLEs from Nashville last year look pretty bad:

.887 OPS against, 5.11 BB/9, 4.47 K/9, 1.84 WHIP.

He's still pretty young, and he didn't sink in his major league stint last year, but I just don't see anything in his track record to make me think he was the jewel of the Overbay trade, especially after how Bush has turned out and how Gross projects.  If a team has some interest, do we trade him?