On March 20th, I wrote the FanPost below in BOLD in response to the chatter about the Chiefs selecting an OLB in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.  My opinion was that the Chiefs should not use our first round pick on the OLB position (my favorite was NT Phil Taylor) and my reasoning was that Andy Studebaker had great potential/measurables and had played well when given the chance.  Little did I know at the time that my comparison below would feature 3 Chiefs OLBs now that we've drafted Justin Houston:

Many of the mock draft experts have the Chiefs drafting a "bookend OLB" to replace Mike Vrabel and add pass rush skills (Vrabel had ZERO sacks last year) across from Tamba Hali.  I personally think we should "reach" a little bit to grab NT Phil Taylor just like Pioli did in 2004 when he grabbed Vince Wilfork at #21 for the Patriots.

Thought you might like to see some “measurables” on some outside linebackers that you might find interesting.  I realize that measurables alone do not determine success in the NFL, but  I’m going to present the data to you anonymously first and then share the owner of each column of data at the bottom of this post.

                                                 Player A            Player B           Player C           Player D

Height                                       6’ 3”                  6’ 3”                   6’ 3”                  6’ 3”

Weight                                    246 lbs              255 lbs              270 lbs              275 lbs

40 Yd Dash                            4.53 sec            4.51 sec            4.68 sec          4.87 sec

Vertical Leap                            37”                    36.5”                 36.5”                 30”

Broad Jump                            10’ 6”                10' 7”                10’ 5”                8' 10”

Bench Press                          21 reps                NA                   30 reps            18 reps

As you can see, Player A and Player B are similar to one another in height, weight, speed and overall athleticism while player C is faster, stronger and more athletic than player D.

Player A is Von Miller who’s considered to be the best 3-4 OLB pass rushing prospect in the 2011 draft and will likely be drafted in the top 5

Player B is Andy Studebaker who led the entire nation in sacks (17.5) in 2006 during his junior year at Wheaton College, a Division III school.  In his first NFL start with the Chiefs in 2009 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he intercepted 2 passes, returning one for 94 yards.  In 2010, in very limited action as Mike Vrabel’s backup, he had 2.5 sacks.

Player C is Justin Houston who’s considered to be the second best 3-4 OLB pass rusher in the 2011 draft and will likely be drafted in the first round

Player D is Tamba Hali who was drafted with the 20th pick in the first round in 2006 by the Chiefs and led the AFC in sacks last year with 14.5.

I'll say again that I know that “measurables” are not everything, but Andy Studebaker is big, fast and athletic.  He’s an extremely hard worker and has proven, whenever he’s been given the chance to play, that he can affect the outcome of a football game.

I believe there’s a reason why a GM as intelligent as Scott Pioli awarded Studebaker a 3 year contract extension last fall when the NFL lockout was on the horizon.  I don’t believe he would do that unless he was certain that the Chiefs had a “diamond in the rough” and wanted to lock him up while he’s cheap.

Mark my words.  Watch for Andy Studebaker to blossom in 2011 as a 3-4 OLB for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Since the draft, I've been focusing more on the 10 yard dash as an important OLB measurable since it suggests the burst needed to rush the passer and is also one indicator of how well a prospect might be able to cover a tight end, slot receiver or back out of the backfield for a short distance.  I have to give credit to steve_chiefs as he posted some interesting charts that got me thinking about our LB corps.

Take a look at this eye-popping 10 yard dash comparison of some current star NFL 3-4 OLBs and some of the best prospects from this year's draft:

Clay Matthews 1.49

Brooks Reed 1.54

Brian Orakpo 1.56

Gabe Miller 1.56

Von Miller 1.57

Andy Studebaker 1.59

Cameron Sheffield 1.60

DeMarcus Ware 1.62

Justin Houston 1.62

Cameron Wake 1.62

LaMarr Woodley 1.65

Shaun Phillips 1.68

Four count 'em four Chiefs OLB prospects with ELITE 10 yard dash times.  I'm about to jump out of my chair!

Gabe Miller?  Are you kidding me?  2nd fastest time in the 10 yard dash of this year's OLB prospects (behind Brooks Reed), but under the radar because he wasn't invited to the Combine.  Same height and weight as DeMarcus Ware, but stronger (33 reps to 27 reps) and much quicker burst off the line.  Most draft experts are grading this pick as an F (or best case a C) because they didn't know who Gabe Miller was.  I admit, I didn't and was shocked when we selected him (I wanted Jerrell Powe since we passed on Phil Taylor and was THRILLED when we grabbed him in the 6th round).

Of course, Miller is as raw as they come, but how exciting is it to get this kind of potential in the FIFTH round and then hand him off to Romeo Crennel, one of the best practitioners of the 3-4 defense?  Who better to polish this rough stone into a polished jewel?

Couldn't this be an "embarrassment of riches" at OLB with one of the best in the game today, Tamba Hali, joined by a promising part-time player ready to start in Andy Studebaker, a beast of a "proven" prospect in Justin Houston, a promising prospect from last year returning from injury in Cameron Sheffield AND an amazingly athletic prospect ready to be taught in Gabe Miller?

I believe that the Chiefs are SET at OLB.

By the way, anyone want to know what my favorite Chiefs player, Eric Berry, ran in the 10 yard dash at last year's Combine?

1.54

Wow.

Over the weekend two bits of news rang out almost simultaneously:

1.  Phil Taylor has been red flagged by the medical staff of at least one NFL team with bones that are growing together in his foot which could create future problems down the road for such a large man.  The reporter in question, Rob Rang, stated that he confirmed this news with at least one additional team.

2.  Colin Kaepernick is ranked as the #1 quarterback on the draft board of some unnamed AFC West team (of which there are, of course, only four)

What if these two seemingly unrelated events, were, in fact, totally related?  What if Pioli and Belichick are "cooperating" in order to execute the following?

Let's say the Chiefs truly want to draft Phil Taylor, but feel he's a reach at #21.  Bill Belichick wants to use #17 on one of the awesome 3-4 DEs in this year's draft and then wants either an OT or OLB with his second pick in the first round, but is afraid his guy won't be there at #28 (Ayres?  Carimi?)

How could the Chiefs trade down with the Patriots from #21 to #28 and still insure that they get their man, Phil Taylor?

One way might be to leak a report that Taylor had a medical problem which the Patriots could then confirm.  That would likely spook teams between #21 and #28 (or teams below #28 who might trade up above #28 to grab Taylor).

Another clever insurance policy would be to leak a report that an unnamed AFC West team had Kaepernick ranked as the #1 QB on their board (did you notice the burst of Kaepernick to the Chiefs rumors over the weekend?) in order to agitate one of the several suitors for the "2nd tier QBs" after Gabbert and Newton to trade back into in the late first in order to get Locker, Ponder, Mallett, Kaepernick, Dalton.  This could, conceivably, remove another draft pick between #21 and #28 from potentially taking Phil Taylor as a QB desperate team offers more to say, New Orleans for #24, than the Jets or the Steelers can offer to move up from #30 or #31.  So Jets and Steelers get "stuck" behind the Chiefs at #28 allowing Pioli to get the man he targeted all along, Phil Taylor.

You see where I'm going here?

Could be wishful thinking, but I'm praying that Pioli and Hoodie execute another trade (remember Cassel and Vrabel for Chiefs #2 in 2009?) where the Chiefs trade #21 in 2011 and a 3rd round pick in 2012 (Belichick loves to accumulate picks in future drafts) for #28 and #33 in 2011.  Chiefs draft NT Phil Taylor at #28 and WR Leonard Hankerson at #33.  Taylor's feet are fine and he goes on to star at NT for the Chiefs and make many Pro Bowls.  Hankerson is exactly what the Chiefs need opposite Dwayne Bowe to eliminate the double teams and lift the 8 man front off of Jamaal Charles.

And we have #55 in the 2nd round and six more picks after that.

Go Chiefs!

Many of the mock draft experts have the Chiefs drafting a "bookend OLB" to replace Mike Vrabel and add pass rush skills (Vrabel had ZERO sacks last year) across from Tamba Hali.  I personally think we should "reach" a little bit to grab NT Phil Taylor just like Pioli did in 2004 when he grabbed Vince Wilfork at #21 for the Patriots.

Thought you might like to see some “measurables” on some outside linebackers that you might find interesting.  I realize that measurables alone do not determine success in the NFL, but  I’m going to present the data to you anonymously first and then share the owner of each column of data at the bottom of this post.

                                                 Player A            Player B           Player C           Player D

Height                                       6’ 3”                  6’ 3”                   6’ 3”                  6’ 3”

Weight                                      246 lbs             255 lbs             270 lbs            275 lbs

40 Yd Dash                               4.53 sec           4.51 sec           4.68 sec          4.87 sec

Vertical Leap                             37”                    36.5”                 36.5”                 30”

Broad Jump                              10’ 6”                10' 7”                10’ 5”                8' 10”

Bench Press                             21 reps              NA                   30 reps            18 reps

As you can see, Player A and Player B are similar to one another in height, weight, speed and overall athleticism while player C is faster, stronger and more athletic than player D.

Player A is Von Miller who’s considered to be the best 3-4 OLB pass rushing prospect in the 2011 draft and will likely be drafted in the top 5

Player B is Andy Studebaker who led the entire nation in sacks (17.5) in 2006 during his junior year at Wheaton College, a Division III school.  In his first NFL start with the Chiefs in 2009 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he intercepted 2 passes, returning one for 94 yards.  In 2010, in very limited action as Mike Vrabel’s backup, he had 2.5 sacks.

Player C is Justin Houston who’s considered to be the second best 3-4 OLB pass rusher in the 2011 draft and will likely be drafted in the first round

Player D is Tamba Hali who was drafted with the 20th pick in the first round in 2006 by the Chiefs and led the AFC in sacks last year with 14.5.

I'll say again that I know that “measurables” are not everything, but Andy Studebaker is big, fast and athletic.  He’s an extremely hard worker and has proven, whenever he’s been given the chance to play, that he can affect the outcome of a football game.

I believe there’s a reason why a GM as intelligent as Scott Pioli awarded Studebaker a 3 year contract extension last fall when the NFL lockout was on the horizon.  I don’t believe he would do that unless he was certain that the Chiefs had a “diamond in the rough” and wanted to lock him up while he’s cheap.

Mark my words.  Watch for Andy Studebaker to blossom in 2011 as a 3-4 OLB for the Kansas City Chiefs.

You may remember how passionate I was last year that the Chiefs NOT draft a tackle at #5 and how pleased I was when Pioli grabbed Eric Berry who arguably had the best first year of any safety in the history of the NFL (16 starts, 92 tackles, 2 sacks, 13 passes defensed, 4 interceptions/1 for TD, 1 forced fumble) and became a Pro Bowler in his rookie year.  

No matter how disappointing the playoff game against the Ravens was, Berry was fantastic and showed Ed Reed close up that he and Troy Polomalu have competition for the label of “Best Safety in the NFL”.

Here's my post from Feb 24 of last year detailing why the Chiefs shouldn't take a left tackle at #5:

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2010/2/24/1325640/should-the-chiefs-use-5th-overall

Even though the “draft pundits” are routinely mocking a T or an OLB to the Chiefs at #21 in this year’s draft, I hope to explain to you in this post why that makes no sense and why I have faith in Scott Pioli and staff to realize what the real weaknesses of the team are and draft accordingly.

First, let’s address the issue of the Chiefs offensive line and whether we should draft a tackle (most "experts" propose a right tackle at #21 who could eventually move to left tackle and kick Branden Albert inside to guard when Brian Waters retires, but they forget that we already have Jon Asamoah waiting in the wings to replace Waters).  Let’s also for a moment, ignore the relative quality of talent available even though this is considered to be a weak year for tackles without a consensus #1 at the position.  In fact, no tackle is certain to go in the Top 10 and maybe only a single tackle, Nate Solder, is considered a “safe” pick to make it in the NFL as a franchise left tackle.  Most of the others have questions and are candidates to fail at left tackle and be forced to play the less challenging right side in the NFL.

Instead let’s focus on whether the Chiefs truly have a need at tackle at all.  In the NFL, the left tackle is considered the primary pass protector, while the right tackle is expected to be the “road grader” who allows the running back to pile up yards in big chunks. 

Let’s focus first on run blocking.  We know that the Chiefs had the #1 rushing offense in the NFL last year.  Was that because Jamaal Charles is an insanely great running back or did the Chiefs offensive line blast holes in the defense that even one of us could plod through for at least 4 yards?

The answer is BOTH

According to Football Outsiders which runs an insane number of statistics and analyzes the NFL from every possible angle, the Chiefs offensive line was the 6th best in the NFL last year in run blocking.  The offensive line was exceptional at opening holes for Jamaal (and Thomas Jones) and he was HISTORIC (2nd highest YPC in the history of the NFL) at being able to squirt through them and make as much as possible out of every opportunity.

The Chiefs ran 27% of their running plays to the left side, 51% of their running plays up the middle and 22% of their running plays to the right side.  The NFL average is 25% left, 50% middle and 25% right so we were less likely to run to the right than the average team, probably because Barry Richardson was a first year starter at right tackle.

So how did Richardson do?  Barry Richardson performed exceptionally well as a “road grader” as the Chiefs ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushes over right end (outside the tackle where Richardson has to block his man to the inside).  What more could we ask for?  Only St. Louis with former #2 OVERALL PICK Jason Smith at right tackle (chosen right before Tyson Jackson in 2009 and failed as a left tackle so was kicked over to the right side by last year’s 2nd round pick Rodger Saffold who had a GREAT rookie year) ran better over right end than did the Chiefs.

Richardson and Ryan Lilja also performed pretty well in their first year together as a tandem as the Chiefs were 19th in the NFL in rushes over right tackle (where the right guard blocks to the inside and the right tackle blocks to the outside to clear the hole).  This was the 2nd worst rushing result for the Chiefs last season so I’m sure it’s an area that will get focus.  With Ryan Lilja playing at a Pro Bowl level and Richardson ascending, I feel confident that Pioli will allow the NFL’s most talented offensive line guru, Bill Muir, to tutor Barry Richardson and that Lilja and Richardson will work even better together as a tandem as they become more familiar with one another.  I can’t see Pioli using our precious 2011 first round pick to start over with a rookie right tackle.

If you look to the left side, the rushing results were even more exciting.  The Chiefs were 4th in the NFL in rushes over left end and 5th in rushes over left tackle, so Branden Albert and Brian Waters were a kick ass tandem.  In fact, the only true weakness of the Chiefs offensive line was its “Power Ranking” where our ability to pick up a yard or two when necessary (3rd and short, 4 and short, goal line rush play) was below average (20th in the NFL with only a 57% success rate – Miami was #1 with an 83% success rate).  This honestly is a reflection of our decision to run a zone blocking scheme (with smaller, more agile lineman) and a direct result of our 37-year old, 285 pound center, Casey Wiegmann.  Clearly center is a position of need in this draft and I expect the Chiefs to grab a 300+ LB center with strength AND agility in rounds 2-5.

So no need to select a tackle to improve our running game.  What about pass protection?  Do we need to select a first round tackle to improve our pass protection?

The Chiefs surrendered 32 sacks last year which was tied for 12th in the NFL with the Houston Texans.  In the final meaningless regular season game blowout by the Raiders, we surrendered 7 of those 32 sacks (22% of our total sacks), so you could argue that the distraction regarding Weis’s departure and the meaningless nature of the game impacted the Chiefs final sack total/ranking a lot!  But let’s work with the final numbers.

I decided to create my own calculation of sacks allowed per pass attempt.  Since the Chiefs ran the ball so much, I wondered if our raw sacks allowed total might have been artificially low because Cassel didn’t drop back to pass as often as most.  What I discovered is that the Chiefs were sacked 6.7% of the time that Cassel (or Croyle against SD) dropped back to pass (32 sacks/475 pass attempts).  The best in the NFL were the Indianapolis Colts where Peyton Manning was sacked on only 2.3% of his pass attempts (Archie Manning must have taught his boys to get rid of the ball quickly because Eli Manning was second with 2.9%).  The worst in the NFL were the Chicago Bears where Jay Cutler was sacked an incredible 12% of the time he dropped back to pass.

The Chiefs sacks/per pass attempt percentage was in the upper half of the NFL with some other comparisons being:

Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers = 7%

AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers = 9%

San Diego Chargers = 7%

Cleveland Browns (with Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Thomas) = 7.5%

Miami Dolphins (with #1 overall pick and Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long) = 6.8%

Baltimore Ravens (with “Blind Side” hero Michael Oher at left tackle) = 8.1%

St. Louis Rams (with rookie left tackle star Rodger Saffold) = 5.8%

Atlanta Falcons (with last year’s worst left tackle Sam Baker chosen after Branden Albert in 2008) = 4%

New England Patriots = 4.9%

Houston Texans (tied with Chiefs at 32 sacks but more pass attempts) = 5.5%

As you can see from these percentages, a “franchise left tackle” is not the only piece of the puzzle to great pass protection and low sacks allowed totals.  Sam Baker was horrible at left tackle last year, but Atlanta had a very good sack ratio.  Why?  Because their interior line was very good AND Matt Ryan is an awesome quarterback who understands when to get rid of the ball instead of take a sack.

So I looked next at the Chiefs linemen individually to uncover who gave up how many sacks.  Here are the attributable sack totals for each Chiefs lineman in 2010 (doesn’t add up to 32 sacks because some sacks can’t be attributed to one or two players, some sacks are surrendered by non-starters where stats are unavailable and most importantly, some sacks are attributed to the quarterback for holding the ball too long, but more on that in a moment):

Branden Albert                  7.5 sacks (only 2 in the first 11 games of the year – MIA Long had 6, NE Light had 10, NYJ Ferguson had 2, DEN Clady had 7, BAL Oher had 7, CLE Thomas had 4.5, STL Saffold had 3.5, GB Clifton had 8.5, ATL Baker had 11.5!)

Brian Waters                     1 sack

Casey Wiegmann              0 sacks

Ryan Lilja                            1.5 sacks

Barry Richardson              5 sacks (1st round Packers pick Bulaga had 11!  DEN Harris, who I consider an upgrade to Richardson had 3.5, BAL Yanda had 6, PIT Flozell Adams had 6.5, STL Smith had 4, ATL Clabo had 5, NO Stinchcomb had 7)

Ryan O’Callaghan             0 sacks

Leonard Pope                    1 sack

Jake O’Connell                  1 sack

Thomas Jones                   1 sack

Total                                    18 sacks

So as you can tell, the Chiefs had a very good interior line for pass protection in 2011 with Waters, Wiegmann and Lilja only surrendering 2.5 sacks on the year.

So where are the other 14 sacks?  I found another excellent source where someone had studied every sack that happened in 2010 and timed how many of them happened in less than 3 seconds and how many happened on plays that lasted longer than 3 seconds.  3 seconds is considered to be the longest a quarterback should hold the ball before throwing it to a receiver or throwing it away.

Guess how many Chiefs sacks happened after 3 seconds thereby being “charged” to the quarterback? FOURTEEN.  That’s right, according to this source, Matt Cassel held the ball for more than three seconds and was sacked 14 times which represents 44% of the sacks surrendered by the Chiefs in 2010.

This was the FOURTH WORST PERCENTAGE in the NFL meaning that only three quarterbacks (Michael Vick,Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco) were responsible for a larger percentage of their team sacks allowed total that Matt Cassel (Flacco was at 63%!!!!)

Why would a smart QB like Matt Cassel hold the ball so long resulting in these sacks?  Because Dwayne Bowe and Tony Moeaki were covered, that’s why.  This stat DEMANDS that the Chiefs get a great free agent or rookie wide receiver to pair with Dwayne Bowe.  The fastest way to reduce the Chiefs sack total is NOT to draft a tackle to replace Barry Richardson or Branden Albert.  The fastest way to reduce the Chiefs ALREADY LOW sack total is to find a receiver who can get open when Bowe is doubled and Moeaki is covered.  A receiver who spreads the field and must be respected deep so that Cassel zings the ball to someone before the defense gets to him.  Hence the subject line of this post.

So I think it’s clear that the Chiefs shouldn’t use #21 to draft a tackle and that they must address both wide receiver and center before the 2011 season.  It’s possible that the Chiefs might draft C Mike Pouncey at #21 if he’s available.  It may be that Pioli believes one of the wide receivers after A.J. Green and Julio Jones (Jonathan Baldwin, Leonard Hankerson, Torrey Smith, Titus Young, Randall Cobb, etc.) is worth #21, but I don’t think so.  If free agency occurs, expect the Chiefs to be active at WR because there’s a lot of options out there who would make the Chiefs offense amazing in 2011.

So, if #21 is not a tackle and it’s not a wide receiver and it’s probably not a center, what position is it?  Many would have you believe that the Chiefs need to grab a “pass rusher” in the form of an OLB or a DE (which is ridiculous because the absolute BEST 3-4 defensive ends might get 5 sacks in a season) to compliment Tamba Hali and his 14.5 sacks in 2010.

I disagree and here’s several reasons why:

#1 – The Chiefs have a #3 overall pick invested in Tyson Jackson and he was progressing nicely last year before he got hurt and he played well late in the year when he was healthy again.

#2 – The Chiefs have an excellent situational rusher at DE in Wallace Gilberry who had 7 sacks while playing primarily on third down only.

#3 – The Chiefs have two promising young linebackers competing to replace Mike Vrabel in Andy Studebakerand Cameron Sheffield.  Studebaker has played extremely well in my mind when given the chance (reminds me a little bit of a poor man’s Clay Matthews) and Sheffield was impressive before he got hurt last year.  Why would you use a precious first round pick to add another rookie to this mix unless you’re ABSOLUTELY SURE the rookie linebacker is a stud?  Chiefs pick too late at #21 to have a chance at a stud pass rusher.

#4 – Successful 3-4 defenses are built around a 3 man defensive line that does three things – 1. Occupy all of the offensive line blockers to free the linebackers to make plays, 2. Set the edges to prevent run plays from getting around the defensive line so the linebackers can shoot the gaps and stop the ball carrier inside and 3. PUSH THE MIDDLE OF THE OFFENSIVE LINE BACK TO STOP THE RUN OR PUSH THE POCKET INTO THE QUARTERBACK TO FLUSH HIM TO THE RIGHT OR THE LEFT MAKING IT EASY FOR THE PASS RUSHING LINEBACKERS TO SACK HIM.

Have you seen any push in the middle of the Chiefs defensive line over the last 3 years?

Do you really want 32 year old Ron Edwards at NT again in 2011?  Anthony Toribio?

With Dorsey and Jackson developing into successful 3-4 defensive ends under the watchful eye of 3-4 expert Romeo Crennel, wouldn’t it be amazing to have a stud NT to develop along with them so our d-line would be set for the next 5-7 years?

How many more sacks could we get in 2011 (by the way, the Chiefs were TENTH in the NFL in sacks in 2010 with 39 sacks and that was with AARP member Mike Vrabel starting the entire season at OLB and recording NONE!  ZIP, ZERO, ZILCH) if our NT pushed the center back into the QB flushing him into the waiting arms of Hali or Studebaker once in a while?

How much rush yardage did we surrender last year because Ron Edwards was knocked on his ass by the opposing center?

How many games did we lose in the fourth quarter last year because our defense got tired? (answer is 3:  Indianapolis, Houston and first Oakland game)

I beseech Scott Pioli to give Romeo the NT that he desperately needs and I pray that the Chiefs choice at #21 in the 2011 NFL Draft is NT Phil Taylor from Baylor.  He has prototypical size for the position (6’ 3” and 337 pounds), is very strong (31 reps at 225 lbs) and surprisingly fast (5.09 in the 40 which is shocking for someone who weighs almost 340 lbs).  He’s bigger, stronger and faster than one of the other prospects the Chiefs might consider – Jerrell Powe (6’ 2” and 335, 27 reps and 5.25 in 40) and more polished and NFL-ready than the other - Kenrick Ellis (6’ 5” and 346, 26 reps and 5.2 in 40).  He was dominant against the quality competition in the Senior Bowl and impressively athletic at the Combine and his pro day.  He has character issues in his past, but grew up and made something of himself since transferring from Penn State to Baylor

16 of the 32 NFL teams currently run the 3-4 defense and nose tackle is the position in shortest supply.  There are a very small number of human beings on the Planet Earth who are 6’ 2” – 6’ 4” tall, 330+ lbs of MUSCLE with quick feet, foot speed and endurance.  Last year, we passed on Terrence Cody (chosen by the brilliant Ozzie Newsome in Baltimore), probably thought that Torell Troup would drop to us in the third (he didn’t – grabbed by the Bills five picks after we chose Dexter McCluster) and chose Cameron Sheffield in the 5th instead of Cameron Thomas (chosen 4 picks later by San Diego) who showed flashes at NT for the Chargers.

We NEED a great NT and this is the time!  The only realistic threat to take Phil Taylor before our pick at #21 (unless Jets or Steelers trade up above us) is the Chargers at #18 and they hopefully like Cam Thomas enough to address another position in the first.

Vince Wilfork was also chosen at #21 by Pioli and as the anchor of that 3-4 defensive line he’s made even average linebackers look talented.  A great NT plugs up the middle and occupies two blockers so the defensive ends can set the edge and the linebackers can attack the running lanes and rush the QB.  A great NT makes his defensive ends better.  A great NT makes his linebackers more productive.  A great NT makes it harder for the offense to run the ball.  Makes it harder for the QB to settle in the pocket as the center is pushed back into his lap.  A great NT makes a good 3-4 defense, a GREAT 3-4 defense.  Plus a great NT has a LONG career compared to a great RB or CB where age rapidly steals their “burst”.

I’m not as sure about Phil Taylor as I was about Eric Berry, but I think Phil Taylor could make the Chiefs a GREAT DEFENSE for the next 5-7 years!

Many of the mock draft experts have the Chiefs drafting a "bookend OLB" to replace Mike Vrabel and add pass rush skills (Vrabel had ZERO sacks last year) across from Tamba Hali.  I personally think we should "reach" a little bit to grab NT Phil Taylor just like Pioli did in 2004 when he grabbed Vince Wilfork at #21 for the Patriots.

Thought you might like to see some “measurables” on some outside linebackers that you might find interesting.  I realize that measurables alone do not determine success in the NFL, but  I’m going to present the data to you anonymously first and then share the owner of each column of data at the bottom of this post.

                                                 Player A            Player B           Player C           Player D

Height                                       6’ 3”                  6’ 3”                   6’ 3”                  6’ 3”

Weight                                      246 lbs             255 lbs             270 lbs            275 lbs

40 Yd Dash                               4.53 sec           4.51 sec           4.68 sec          4.87 sec

Vertical Leap                             37”                    36.5”                 36.5”                 30”

Broad Jump                              10’ 6”                10' 7”                10’ 5”                8' 10”

Bench Press                             21 reps              NA                   30 reps            18 reps

As you can see, Player A and Player B are similar to one another in height, weight, speed and overall athleticism while player C is faster, stronger and more athletic than player D.

Player A is Von Miller who’s considered to be the best 3-4 OLB pass rushing prospect in the 2011 draft and will likely be drafted in the top 5

Player B is Andy Studebaker who led the entire nation in sacks (17.5) in 2006 during his junior year at Wheaton College, a Division III school.  In his first NFL start with the Chiefs in 2009 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he intercepted 2 passes, returning one for 94 yards.  In 2010, in very limited action as Mike Vrabel’s backup, he had 2.5 sacks.

Player C is Justin Houston who’s considered to be the second best 3-4 OLB pass rusher in the 2011 draft and will likely be drafted in the first round

Player D is Tamba Hali who was drafted with the 20th pick in the first round in 2006 by the Chiefs and led the AFC in sacks last year with 14.5.

I'll say again that I know that “measurables” are not everything, but Andy Studebaker is big, fast and athletic.  He’s an extremely hard worker and has proven, whenever he’s been given the chance to play, that he can affect the outcome of a football game.

I believe there’s a reason why a GM as intelligent as Scott Pioli awarded Studebaker a 3 year contract extension last fall when the NFL lockout was on the horizon.  I don’t believe he would do that unless he was certain that the Chiefs had a “diamond in the rough” and wanted to lock him up while he’s cheap.

Mark my words.  Watch for Andy Studebaker to blossom in 2011 as a 3-4 OLB for the Kansas City Chiefs.

You may remember how passionate I was last year that the Chiefs NOT draft a tackle at #5 and how pleased I was when Pioli grabbed Eric Berry who arguably had the best first year of any safety in the history of the NFL (16 starts, 92 tackles, 2 sacks, 13 passes defensed, 4 interceptions/1 for TD, 1 forced fumble) and became a Pro Bowler in his rookie year.  

No matter how disappointing the playoff game against the Ravens was, Berry was fantastic and showed Ed Reed close up that he and Troy Polomalu have competition for the label of “Best Safety in the NFL”.

Here's my post from Feb 24 of last year detailing why the Chiefs shouldn't take a left tackle at #5:

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2010/2/24/1325640/should-the-chiefs-use-5th-overall

Even though the “draft pundits” are routinely mocking a T or an OLB to the Chiefs at #21 in this year’s draft, I hope to explain to you in this email why that makes no sense and why I have faith in Scott Pioli and staff to realize what the real weaknesses of the team are and draft accordingly.

First, let’s address the issue of the Chiefs offensive line and whether we should draft a tackle (most "experts" propose a right tackle at #21 who could eventually move to left tackle and kick Branden Albert inside to guard when Brian Waters retires, but they forget that we already have Jon Asamoah waiting in the wings to replace Waters).  Let’s also for a moment, ignore the relative quality of talent available even though this is considered to be a weak year for tackles without a consensus #1 at the position.  In fact, no tackle is certain to go in the Top 10 and maybe only a single tackle, Nate Solder, is considered a “safe” pick to make it in the NFL as a franchise left tackle.  Most of the others have questions and are candidates to fail at left tackle and be forced to play the less challenging right side in the NFL.

Instead let’s focus on whether the Chiefs truly have a need at tackle at all.  In the NFL, the left tackle is considered the primary pass protector, while the right tackle is expected to be the “road grader” who allows the running back to pile up yards in big chunks. 

Let’s focus first on run blocking.  We know that the Chiefs had the #1 rushing offense in the NFL last year.  Was that because Jamaal Charles is an insanely great running back or did the Chiefs offensive line blast holes in the defense that even one of us could plod through for at least 4 yards?

The answer is BOTH

According to Football Outsiders which runs an insane number of statistics and analyzes the NFL from every possible angle, the Chiefs offensive line was the 6th best in the NFL last year in run blocking.  The offensive line was exceptional at opening holes for Jamaal (and Thomas Jones) and he was HISTORIC (2nd highest YPC in the history of the NFL) at being able to squirt through them and make as much as possible out of every opportunity.

The Chiefs ran 27% of their running plays to the left side, 51% of their running plays up the middle and 22% of their running plays to the right side.  The NFL average is 25% left, 50% middle and 25% right so we were less likely to run to the right than the average team, probably because Barry Richardson was a first year starter at right tackle.

So how did Richardson do?  Barry Richardson performed exceptionally well as a “road grader” as the Chiefs ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushes over right end (outside the tackle where Richardson has to block his man to the inside).  What more could we ask for?  Only St. Louis with former #2 OVERALL PICK Jason Smith at right tackle (chosen right before Tyson Jackson in 2009 and failed as a left tackle so was kicked over to the right side by last year’s 2nd round pick Rodger Saffold who had a GREAT rookie year) ran better over right end than did the Chiefs.

Richardson and Ryan Lilja also performed pretty well in their first year together as a tandem as the Chiefs were 19th in the NFL in rushes over right tackle (where the right guard blocks to the inside and the right tackle blocks to the outside to clear the hole).  This was the 2nd worst rushing result for the Chiefs last season so I’m sure it’s an area that will get focus.  With Ryan Lilja playing at a Pro Bowl level and Richardson ascending, I feel confident that Pioli will allow the NFL’s most talented offensive line guru, Bill Muir, to tutor Barry Richardson and that Lilja and Richardson will work even better together as a tandem as they become more familiar with one another.  I can’t see Pioli using our precious 2011 first round pick to start over with a rookie right tackle.

If you look to the left side, the rushing results were even more exciting.  The Chiefs were 4th in the NFL in rushes over left end and 5th in rushes over left tackle, so Branden Albert and Brian Waters were a kick ass tandem.  In fact, the only true weakness of the Chiefs offensive line was its “Power Ranking” where our ability to pick up a yard or two when necessary (3rd and short, 4 and short, goal line rush play) was below average (20th in the NFL with only a 57% success rate – Miami was #1 with an 83% success rate).  This honestly is a reflection of our decision to run a zone blocking scheme (with smaller, more agile lineman) and a direct result of our 37-year old, 285 pound center, Casey Wiegmann.  Clearly center is a position of need in this draft and I expect the Chiefs to grab a 300+ LB center with strength AND agility in rounds 2-5.

So no need to select a tackle to improve our running game.  What about pass protection?  Do we need to select a first round tackle to improve our pass protection?

The Chiefs surrendered 32 sacks last year which was tied for 12th in the NFL with the Houston Texans.  In the final meaningless regular season game blowout by the Raiders, we surrendered 7 of those 32 sacks (22% of our total sacks), so you could argue that the distraction regarding Weis’s departure and the meaningless nature of the game impacted the Chiefs final sack total/ranking a lot!  But let’s work with the final numbers.

I decided to create my own calculation of sacks allowed per pass attempt.  Since the Chiefs ran the ball so much, I wondered if our raw sacks allowed total might have been artificially low because Cassel didn’t drop back to pass as often as most.  What I discovered is that the Chiefs were sacked 6.7% of the time that Cassel (or Croyle against SD) dropped back to pass (32 sacks/475 pass attempts).  The best in the NFL were the Indianapolis Colts where Peyton Manning was sacked on only 2.3% of his pass attempts (Archie Manning must have taught his boys to get rid of the ball quickly because Eli Manning was second with 2.9%).  The worst in the NFL were the Chicago Bears where Jay Cutler was sacked an incredible 12% of the time he dropped back to pass.

The Chiefs sacks/per pass attempt percentage was in the upper half of the NFL with some other comparisons being:

Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers = 7%

AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers = 9%

San Diego Chargers = 7%

Cleveland Browns (with Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Thomas) = 7.5%

Miami Dolphins (with #1 overall pick and Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long) = 6.8%

Baltimore Ravens (with “Blind Side” hero Michael Oher at left tackle) = 8.1%

St. Louis Rams (with rookie left tackle star Rodger Saffold) = 5.8%

Atlanta Falcons (with last year’s worst left tackle Sam Baker chosen after Branden Albert in 2008) = 4%

New England Patriots = 4.9%

Houston Texans (tied with Chiefs at 32 sacks but more pass attempts) = 5.5%

As you can see from these percentages, a “franchise left tackle” is not the only piece of the puzzle to great pass protection and low sacks allowed totals.  Sam Baker was horrible at left tackle last year, but Atlanta had a very good sack ratio.  Why?  Because their interior line was very good AND Matt Ryan is an awesome quarterback who understands when to get rid of the ball instead of take a sack.

So I looked next at the Chiefs linemen individually to uncover who gave up how many sacks.  Here are the attributable sack totals for each Chiefs lineman in 2010 (doesn’t add up to 32 sacks because some sacks can’t be attributed to one or two players, some sacks are surrendered by non-starters where stats are unavailable and most importantly, some sacks are attributed to the quarterback for holding the ball too long, but more on that in a moment):

Branden Albert                  7.5 sacks (only 2 in the first 11 games of the year – MIA Long had 6, NE Light had 10, NYJ Ferguson had 2, DEN Clady had 7, BAL Oher had 7, CLE Thomas had 4.5, STL Saffold had 3.5, GB Clifton had 8.5, ATL Baker had 11.5!)

Brian Waters                     1 sack

Casey Wiegmann              0 sacks

Ryan Lilja                            1.5 sacks

Barry Richardson              5 sacks (1st round Packers pick Bulaga had 11!  DEN Harris, who I consider an upgrade to Richardson had 3.5, BAL Yanda had 6, PIT Flozell Adams had 6.5, STL Smith had 4, ATL Clabo had 5, NO Stinchcomb had 7)

Ryan O’Callaghan             0 sacks

Leonard Pope                    1 sack

Jake O’Connell                  1 sack

Thomas Jones                   1 sack

Total                                    18 sacks

So as you can tell, the Chiefs had a very good interior line for pass protection in 2011 with Waters, Wiegmann and Lilja only surrendering 2.5 sacks on the year.

So where are the other 14 sacks?  I found another excellent source where someone had studied every sack that happened in 2010 and timed how many of them happened in less than 3 seconds and how many happened on plays that lasted longer than 3 seconds.  3 seconds is considered to be the longest a quarterback should hold the ball before throwing it to a receiver or throwing it away.

Guess how many Chiefs sacks happened after 3 seconds thereby being “charged” to the quarterback?  FOURTEEN.  That’s right, according to this source, Matt Cassel held the ball for more than three seconds and was sacked 14 times which represents 44% of the sacks surrendered by the Chiefs in 2010.

This was the FOURTH WORST PERCENTAGE in the NFL meaning that only three quarterbacks (Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco) were responsible for a larger percentage of their team sacks allowed total that Matt Cassel (Flacco was at 63%!!!!)

Why would a smart QB like Matt Cassel hold the ball so long resulting in these sacks?  Because Dwayne Bowe and Tony Moeaki were covered, that’s why.  This stat DEMANDS that the Chiefs get a great free agent or rookie wide receiver to pair with Dwayne Bowe.  The fastest way to reduce the Chiefs sack total is NOT to draft a tackle to replace Barry Richardson or Branden Albert.  The fastest way to reduce the Chiefs ALREADY LOW sack total is to find a receiver who can get open when Bowe is doubled and Moeaki is covered.  A receiver who spreads the field and must be respected deep so that Cassel zings the ball to someone before the defense gets to him.  Hence the subject line of this email.

So I think it’s clear that the Chiefs shouldn’t use #21 to draft a tackle and that they must address both wide receiver and center before the 2011 season.  It’s possible that the Chiefs might draft C Mike Pouncey at #21 if he’s available.  It may be that Pioli believes one of the wide receivers after A.J. Green and Julio Jones (Jonathan Baldwin, Leonard Hankerson, Torrey Smith, Titus Young, Randall Cobb, etc.) is worth #21, but I don’t think so.  If free agency occurs, expect the Chiefs to be active at WR because there’s a lot of options out there who would make the Chiefs offense amazing in 2011.

So, if #21 is not a tackle and it’s not a wide receiver and it’s probably not a center, what position is it?  Many would have you believe that the Chiefs need to grab a “pass rusher” in the form of an OLB or a DE (which is ridiculous because the absolute BEST 3-4 defensive ends might get 5 sacks in a season) to compliment Tamba Hali and his 14.5 sacks in 2010.

I disagree and here’s several reasons why:

#1 – The Chiefs have a #3 overall pick invested in Tyson Jackson and he was progressing nicely last year before he got hurt and he played well late in the year when he was healthy again.

#2 – The Chiefs have an excellent situational rusher at DE in Wallace Gilberry who had 7 sacks while playing primarily on third down only.

#3 – The Chiefs have two promising young linebackers competing to replace Mike Vrabel in Andy Studebaker and Cameron Sheffield.  Studebaker has played extremely well in my mind when given the chance (reminds me a little bit of a poor man’s Clay Matthews) and Sheffield was impressive before he got hurt last year.  Why would you use a precious first round pick to add another rookie to this mix unless you’re ABSOLUTELY SURE the rookie linebacker is a stud?  Chiefs pick too late at #21 to have a chance at a stud pass rusher.

#4 – Successful 3-4 defenses are built around a 3 man defensive line that does three things – 1. Occupy all of the offensive line blockers to free the linebackers to make plays, 2. Set the edges to prevent run plays from getting around the defensive line so the linebackers can shoot the gaps and stop the ball carrier inside and 3. PUSH THE MIDDLE OF THE OFFENSIVE LINE BACK TO STOP THE RUN OR PUSH THE POCKET INTO THE QUARTERBACK TO FLUSH HIM TO THE RIGHT OR THE LEFT MAKING IT EASY FOR THE PASS RUSHING LINEBACKERS TO SACK HIM.

Have you seen any push in the middle of the Chiefs defensive line over the last 3 years?

Do you really want 32 year old Ron Edwards at NT again in 2011?  Anthony Toribio?

With Dorsey and Jackson developing into successful 3-4 defensive ends under the watchful eye of 3-4 expert Romeo Crennel, wouldn’t it be amazing to have a stud NT to develop along with them so our d-line would be set for the next 5-7 years?

How many more sacks could we get in 2011 (by the way, the Chiefs were TENTH in the NFL in sacks in 2010 with 39 sacks and that was with AARP member Mike Vrabel starting the entire season at OLB and recording NONE!  ZIP, ZERO, ZILCH) if our NT pushed the center back into the QB flushing him into the waiting arms of Hali or Studebaker once in a while?

How much rush yardage did we surrender last year because Ron Edwards was knocked on his ass by the opposing center?

How many games did we lose in the fourth quarter last year because our defense got tired? (answer is 3:  Indianapolis, Houston and first Oakland game)

I beseech Scott Pioli to give Romeo the NT that he desperately needs and I pray that the Chiefs choice at #21 in the 2011 NFL Draft is NT Phil Taylor from Baylor.  He has prototypical size for the position (6’ 3” and 337 pounds), is very strong (31 reps at 225 lbs) and surprisingly fast (5.09 in the 40 which is shocking for someone who weighs almost 340 lbs).  He’s bigger, stronger and faster than one of the other prospects the Chiefs might consider – Jerrell Powe (6’ 2” and 335, 27 reps and 5.25 in 40) and more polished and NFL-ready than the other - Kenrick Ellis (6’ 5” and 346, 26 reps and 5.2 in 40).  He was dominant against the quality competition in the Senior Bowl and impressively athletic at the Combine and his pro day.  He has character issues in his past, but grew up and made something of himself since transferring from Penn State to Baylor

16 of the 32 NFL teams currently run the 3-4 defense and nose tackle is the position in shortest supply.  There are a very small number of human beings on the planet Earth who are 6’ 2” – 6’ 4” tall, 330+ lbs of MUSCLE with quick feet, foot speed and endurance.  Last year, we passed on Terrence Cody (chosen by the brilliant Ozzie Newsome in Baltimore), probably thought that Torell Troup would drop to us in the third (he didn’t – grabbed by the Bills five picks after we chose Dexter McCluster) and chose Cameron Sheffield in the 5th instead of Cameron Thomas (chosen 4 picks later by San Diego) who showed flashes at NT for the Chargers.

We NEED a great NT and this is the time!  The only realistic threat to take Phil Taylor before our pick at #21 (unless Jets or Steelers trade up above us) is the Chargers at #18 and they hopefully like Cam Thomas enough to address another position in the first.

Vince Wilfork was also chosen at #21 by Pioli and as the anchor of that 3-4 defensive line he’s made even average linebackers look talented.  A great NT plugs up the middle and occupies two blockers so the defensive ends can set the edge and the linebackers can attack the running lanes and rush the QB.  A great NT makes his defensive ends better.  A great NT makes his linebackers more productive.  A great NT makes it harder for the offense to run the ball.  Makes it harder for the QB to settle in the pocket as the center is pushed back into his lap.  A great NT makes a good 3-4 defense, a GREAT 3-4 defense.  Plus a great NT has a LONG career compared to a great RB or CB where age rapidly steals their “burst”.

I’m not as sure about Phil Taylor as I was about Eric Berry, but I think Phil Taylor could make the Chiefs a GREAT DEFENSE for the next 5-7 years!

As you all remember, many NFL pundits on TV and web predicted that the Chiefs would take a left tackle at #5 in last year’s NFL Draft.  Most predicted Russell Okung would be the Chiefs pick although a few suggested Bryan Bulaga or Trent Williams.  As you may also recall, I beseeched Scott Pioli to ignore those pundits, stick with Branden Albert in spite of his poor stats in 2009 and draft Eric Berry.  I got my wish.

So, I bet you’re wondering whether sticking with Branden Albert was a good decision or not.  You’re probably curious about how Branden stacks up in sacks allowed through the first 11 games this year versus all the other elite left tackles in the NFL.

First, let’s look at the rookie stats through 11 games for the three tackles rumored to be going to the Chiefs with the #5 pick in the draft:

Bryan Bulaga GB – 6.5 sacks (at RIGHT TACKLE, a less demanding position)

Trent Williams WAS – 7.5 sacks (in only 9 games)

Russell Okung SEA – 2 sacks (in only 5 games, struggled with injuries so far)

Not so great.

One rookie taken in last year’s draft is having a great year, but it’s Rams 2nd round pick Rodger Saffold who’s surrendered only 2 sacks at LT

Next, let’s look at some of the recent draftees at left tackle (Branden’s “peer group” as he came into the league just three years ago):

Sam Baker ATL – 9 sacks (chosen 6 picks after Branden)

Duane Brown HOU – 5.5 sacks (chosen 11 picks after Branden)

Eugene Monroe JAC – 5 sacks (drafted year after Branden)

Levi Brown AZ – 5 sacks (drafted year before Branden)

Jermon Bushrod NO – 4 sacks (drafted year before Branden)

Chris Williams CHI – 3 sacks at LEFT GUARD (chosen right before Branden; that many sacks at LG is terrible – Brian Waters has ZERO)

Jason Smith STL – 2 sacks at RIGHT TACKLE (drafted year after Branden)

And now, the “elite” left tackles in the NFL:

Matt Light NE – 6 sacks

Ryan Clady DEN – 6 sacks

Jake Long MIA – 6 sacks (injury played a part)

Michael Roos TEN – 5 sacks

Michael Oher BAL – 4 sacks

Jordan Gross CAR – 3 sacks

Joe Thomas CLE – 3 sacks

Bryant McKinnie MIN – 3 sacks

Marcus McNeill SD – 2.5 sacks (in ONLY 6 games!)

And the three best left tackles in the NFL through 11 games are:

Jason Peters PHI – 2 sacks (benefits from the most mobile QB in the NFL, Michael Vick)

D’Brickashaw Ferguson NYJ – 2 sacks

and

Branden Albert KC – 2 sacks

Looks like a Pro Bowl year for our franchise left tackle.

Hopefully, he'll join Brandon Flowers, Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles, Derrick Johnson and maybe even, Matt Cassel in the Pro Bowl

Like many of you, I can't wait to see how great Eric Berry, Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr can become under the tutelage of former All-Pro defensive back, Emmitt Thomas, the new Chiefs secondary coach.

But don't forget about DaJuan Morgan who's been Mr. Invisible with the Chiefs since he was drafted in the third round of the 2008 NFL Draft.  Hopefully, Morgan can kick the injury bug and develop into a quality starter alongside Eric Berry.  He came out after his junior year as a raw talent at  free safety, but has played strong safety with the Chiefs and in the modern NFL the line between free safety and strong safety is becoming more blurry each season.

Take a look at the pre-draft scouting report on DaJuan Morgan coming out of NC State in 2008.  This guy was a playmaker and it's hard to dispute Herman Edwards's eye for defensive backfield talent.  Hopefully, Emmitt can coach him up and "recover" this draft pick for us and we can have one of the most talented NFL secondaries for years to come.

CB - Brandon Flowers

CB - Brandon Carr

NB - Javier Arenas

S - Eric Berry

S - DaJuan Morgan

2008 NFL Draft Prospect Scouting Report:

DaJuan Morgan, FS, North Carolina State Behind Kenny Phillips of Miami, DaJuan Morgan will be the best safety on most draft boards. During his junior (and final) season at North Carolina State, Morgan led the team with 97 tackles, three interceptions and six pass break-ups. He is a great athlete and has plenty of speed and decent enough hands to compliment his above average coverage ability. He can do just about everything from the free safety position, but for now his value on special teams might be his greatest asset.  

Morgan is still learning the position after starting just one year for the Wolfpack. His experience at wide receiver is not a bad thing, but he did just move to safety in 2005 and has plenty left to learn about the position. He tends to project better than he plays, but most of that can be blamed on inexperience. Once he learns the position a little more, his production should start living up to his Combine numbers. The All-ACC Second-Team selection plays with emotion and that has led to some problems in the past with his consistency. If he can play with a level head and spend a year or two fine tuning his technique, Morgan has the athletic tools to be the best safety of this class.

Morgan could slide into the second round if somebody falls in love with his athleticism and potential. At the very least they would be getting a great special teams player and a serviceable safety. And it is very feasible that they could get a whole lot more than that from Morgan.

4/11 Update: DaJuan Morgan continues to climb up most draft boards. On some boards he might even be a little bit ahead of Miami safety Kenny Phillips, but that might be stretching it a bit. Either way, Morgan is looking like a first day selection. The New York Giants are in dire need of a young safety and if Morgan makes it until the last pick in the second round, the Super Bowl Champions should be happy to have him.

I desperately want Eric Berry at pick #5, but I fear that Scott Pioli will NOT pick a safety that high. If that’s true, then I hope the Chiefs DON’T draft a LT or reach for a NT like Dan Williams, but instead trade down.

The Philadelphia Eagles are rumored to be infatuated with Eric Berry. The Eagles also have stockpiled draft picks (11 total, 5 in the first 3 rounds, 7 in the first 4 rounds) in order to move up into the Top 10 to get “their man”. In order to guarantee that they get Eric Berry, I believe the Eagles will have to work out a trade with Scott Pioli for the Chiefs pick at #5.

So the Chiefs trade the #5 pick in the 1st round for the Philadelphia Eagles 1st round pick at #24, the 2nd round pick they just acquired from the Washington Redskins in the Donovan McNabb trade (#37) and the first of the Eagles two 3rd round picks (#70).

After this trade down, the Chiefs now have:

First Round #24
Second Round #36
Second Round #37
Second Round #50
Third Round #68
Third Round #70

With this amount of firepower, we draft/trade in this way:

First Round #24
Terrance Cody NT – I think the public love for Torrell Troup is a smokescreen.  Hard to believe that team Pioli would be that transparent.  I think the real target is Mt. Cody and we can’t wait until the 2nd round. Otherwise, I think San Diego will grab him at #28. I have a hunch that Cody will prove to be the best NT from this draft class (better than Dan Williams) and he’s the missing link to “unleash the Kraken” inside of both Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson.  Who better than "Coach Windsprint", Todd Haley, to keep Terrance in football shape at 345 lbs?

Second Round #36
Golden Tate WR/KR – With the trade of Santonio Holmes to the Jets, it seems that Tate will drop out of the 1st round. If he gets past the Rams at #33 (I bet that someone will try to pry that pick out of the Rams since it’s the first pick of the second day after teams have the evening to readjust their draft board), I think Pioli gives Charlie Weis his ND boy, Golden Tate, as an offensive playmaker in what will be a very defense-biased Chiefs draft

Second Round #37
TRADE to Baltimore Ravens for Jared Gaither LT – He’s a proven, elite, 24-year old LT who will allow us to kick Albert inside to LG and move Brian Waters to C (Wiegmann becomes a backup). For the price of a second round pick, Chiefs o-line goes from big question mark to very strong.

Second Round #50
Ricky Sapp OLB or Koa Misi OLB – Pass rushing linebacker to learn from Mike Vrabel and add pressure to help Tamba Hali get to the QB

Third Round #68
Morgan Burnett S or Chad Jones S – Young talent at a position of need. Haley loves competition and either Burnett or Jones will push Jarrad Page (if he returns healthy) or DeJuan Morgan for a starting position. Also allows us to let aging Mike Brown go and use Jon McGraw as a backup and special teamer where he belongs.  Neither is an elite talent like Eric Berry, but you can't have everything.

Third Round #70
Brandon Spikes ILB or Sean Lee ILB – Brandon Spikes is the thumper ILB we need to stop the run (enabled by Mt. Cody occupying two offensive lineman at NT) and it appears he'll be available in the third round as he drops steeply due to his snail-like 40 time.

With this scenario, in the first three rounds, the Chiefs get a premium nose tackle, a strong pass rusher to put opposite Tamba Hali, a hard hitting safety, a proven franchise left tackle AND a deep threat at wide receiver who also returns punts and kickoffs.

In the fourth round, the Chiefs draft Jason Fox at OT who can compete with O’Callaghan at RT or backup Gaither at LT.

With our three fifth round picks, we choose Pat Angerer at ILB, Javier Arenas at CB/KR and Charles Scott at RB.

What do you think?

The Detroit Lions had decided last year to get both their offensive and defensive "quarterbacks" in a single draft and accepted the Chiefs offer to trade back up in the first round for our pick at #3 overall.  Lions take Matt Stafford at #1, trade their #20 pick in the first round and their #33 pick at the top of the second round to the Chiefs and select linebacker Aaron Curry with #3.

The Chiefs at #20 select OLB Clay Matthews (possesses the pass rushing skills we need and that Curry lacked) and S Louis Delmas at #33 (had a great rookie year for the Lions).

Flashforward to 2010.  Now the Chiefs don't have a need at safety and have an amazing young pass rushing linebacker opposite Tamba Hali.

I think in that situation, we would move up in the 2010 draft to select Ndamukong Suh as a 3-4 DE.

What do you think?

As we approach this year's NFL Draft with so much riding on the 5th choice in the 1st round, I thought it would be interesting to take a walk down memory lane and give you my opinion of the biggest bust the Chiefs have ever chosen in the first round.

It's not who you think it is.

Most Chiefs 1st round bust discussion centers around either Todd Blackledge who was picked #7 in 1983 (before other QBs Jim Kelly and Dan Marino as you'll recall) or Ryan Sims who we traded up to pick at #6 in 2002 (ahead of other DTs Albert Haynesworth and John Henderson).

But as disappointing as Blackledge was at QB, he played 7 years in the NFL, racking up 29 starts in 46 games and threw 29 TD passes (and 38 interceptions).  Sims is still active with Tampa Bay and has played 8 years with 38 starts in 96 games with 110 tackles, 8.5 sacks and 1 interception (Haynesworth has started 74 of 102 games with 230 tackles, 28 sacks and 0 INTs)

Both disappointing, but neither is the biggest first round bust of the Chiefs IMHO.  Blackledge may be the worst first round pick of all time for the Chiefs because of the "opportunity cost" of not picking Kelly or Marino, but he wasn't a total bust.

I also don't think a pick can be a bust because of injury.  So let's eliminate a few candidates who disappointed because of injury:

Brian Jozwiak was chosen at #7 in 1986 and only played 28 games with 3 starts.  His career ended early due to a serious hip injury so it's hard to know what might have been.

Percy Snow was chosen at #13 in 1990 and was supposed to team with the Chiefs 1989 first round pick, HOF LB Derrick Thomas, to form the most intimidating linebacker tandem of the 1990s, but sadly Percy suffered a severe knee injury (riding a moped!) in training camp in 1991 that basically ended his career.

Sylvester Morris was chosen at #21 in 2000 and had a promising rookie season starting 14 out of 15 games with 3 TDs, but suffered a career-ending knee injury that disappointed Chiefs fans far and wide.

So if you eliminate Blackledge, Sims, Jozwiak, Snow and Morris from the conversation, who are the other non-injury busts drafted by the Chiefs in the 1st round?

I considered WR Anthony Hancock who was drafted at #11 in 1982, but he played for five years in 59 games with 8 starts.  73 receptions, 1266 yards and 5 TDs.  Bad, but not the worst.  In fact, compare Hancock's numbers to Elmo Wright (drafted at #16 in 1971; famous for being the first NFL player to do an "end zone dance") who was considered a good receiver in his day - 5 years played, 51 games with 4 starts, 70 receptions, 1116 yards and 6 TDs.

I considered RB Woody Green (#16 in 1974 - 3 years, 28 games, 6 starts, 375 carries, 1442 yards rushing, 562 yards receiving, 9 rushing TDs, 2 receiving TDs), but he averaged almost 4 yards a carry and scored more than 10 times.

I considered G/T Rod Walters (#14 in 1976 - 6 years, 55 games, 7 starts)

I considered RB/TE Ethan Horton (#15 in 1985 - waived by Chiefs after 1 year, but picked up by Raiders as a TE - 8 years, 116 games, 80 starts, 212 receptions, 2,360 yards, 20 receiving and rushing TDs), but he even made a Pro Bowl.  It deserves to be mentioned that while Horton wasn't a total bust, he did have 187 less career touchdowns than the man picked immediately after him at #16 in 1985, Jerry Rice.  Too bad we thought we were "set" at WR with Stephone Paige, Carlos Carson, Henry Marshall and Anthony Hancock.  Classic case of a "reach" for RB when none had true 1st round talent.

All disappointing uses of a 1st round Chiefs pick, but none are the biggest bust.  In my mind, that distinction belongs to:

Offensive Tackle - Trezelle Jenkins drafted #31 in 1995

At a position typically considered "safer" than others, Trezelle was a huge tackle (6' 7" and 317 lbs) who managed to play for only 3 years in 9 games and started only 1 game in his entire career.  After the Chiefs cut him, he not only failed to catch on with other NFL teams, but failed in a tryout with the XFL!  Check out what Charles Robinson from Yahoo! Sports wrote about him in an article in 2007 choosing TJenk as the #31 all-time worst first-round pick (Charles also picked Ki-Jana Carter at #1 over Ryan Leaf - disagree - and Percy Snow at #13 which I disagree with because of injury per above):

31.  Trezelle Jenkins, OT, Kansas City Chiefs (1995)
Frankly, Jenkins just wasn't a very good NFL player. The Chiefs soured on him early, and he ended up playing only nine games in three years with only one start. The Chiefs cut him after three years and he failed to catch on in Minnesota and New Orleans. And in what is probably the ultimate insult, he had a tryout with an XFL team and still couldn't make the cut. In the realm of pro football, you can't do much worse than that.

A total bust who contributed nothing to any team - NFL or XFL

I must admit that I looked at the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the NFL Draft in 1985 and the cupboard was bare.  Not only at OT (Zack Wiegert, Brian DeMarco), but at almost every position (stars of the 2nd round = Todd Collins, Ken Dilger, Todd Sauerbrun, Ted Johnson, Kordell Stewart).  Maybe the Chiefs front office picked Trezelle because they couldn't find anyone with NFL talent and decided to reach for a huge guy who might pan out.

Regardless, I think Trezelle is the biggest Chiefs bust in the 1st round.  Blackledge is probably the worst first round Chiefs pick of all time because of the "opportunity cost" of not picking Kelly or Marino.

What if the first four picks of the 2010 NFL Draft play out this way:

Rams - Sam Bradford

Lions - Russell Okung

Bucs - Ndamukong Suh

Skins - Jimmy Clausen

Available at #5 = Gerald McCoy

If the scenario described below plays out and Gerald McCoy drops to #5, I think the Chiefs could trade down with Seattle for their second pick in the first round (#14), their second round pick (#40) and their 4th round pick (#102).   Draft value chart says Chiefs #5 is worth 1700 points, Seattle’s #14 is worth 1100, #40 is worth 500 and #102 is worth 92 points.

Seattle would then draft Gerald McCoy and Bryan Bulaga back-to-back at #5 and #6 (Seattle fans would do the wave for a solid hour!) and the Chiefs draft the highest ranked player left on their draft board of these five at #14 – Dan Williams NT (my personal favorite of these – might go to Broncos at #11), Joe Haden CB, Rolando McClain ILB (might go to Broncos at #11), Earl Thomas S or Sean Weatherspoon OLB (notice ALL defense)

Pioli then has THREE second round picks (#4, #8 and #18 in second - just like Bill Belichick does it!) to fill in the other holes depending on the result of #14.  Terrence Cody, Brandon Spikes, Maurkice Pouncey, Golden Tate, Jerry Hughes, Kyle Wilson, Nate Allen, Cam Thomas – Pick THREE.

We also pick up a high fourth round pick (like a high third due to the depth of this draft class) .

I think I could even live with the loss of Eric Berry in this scenario.

Thoughts?

The prevailing opinion is that Tyson Jackson was a big reach at #3 last year and had a disappointing season as a rookie.  This is in spite of the fact that Jackson was named to the All-Rookie team (along with K Ryan Succop) as selected by the Pro Football Writers of America and Pro Football Weekly.  But did Jackson really disappoint or did he have a good first year at a position that’s not very glamorous and is very difficult to master in the pros?

Here’s Tyson Jackson’s first year stats (playing for one of the worst defenses in the NFL in 2009 and, arguably, one of the worst of the entire decade):

                                                        Tackles                                  Sacks

Tyson Jackson                                 38                                         0.0

Now let’s compare his first year to the first year of a few other 3-4 Defensive Ends (I’ve also included their second year to track their development).  I’ve scoured the Internet for “best 3-4 defensive end lists” and the top 4 of the last 20 years seem to be:

Player                                             Tackles                                  Sacks

Richard Seymour                                                         

-First Year                                          44                                         3.0                                                               

-Second Year                                    56                                         5.5

Ty Warren

-First Year                                          33                                         1.0

-Second Year                                    48                                         3.5

Aaron Smith

-First Year                                          42                                         4.0

-Second Year                                    28                                         8.0

Shaun Ellis

-First Year                                          53                                         8.5

-Second Year                                    39                                         5.0

As you can see, only Shaun Ellis was stud in his first year.

Here’s a handful of younger 3-4 defensive ends that are mentioned as strong or near-elite players:

Player                                             Tackles                                  Sacks

Calais Campbell                              

-First Year                                          28                                         0.0

-Second Year                                    48                                         7.0

Marcus Spears

-First Year                                          31                                         1.5

-Second Year                                    45                                         1.0

Jacques Cesaire

-First Year                                          24                                         0.5

-Second Year                                    25                                         1.0

By the way, just for fun, here’s Glenn Dorsey’s second year as a pro, first year as a 3-4 defensive end (and he missed 1 game):

                                                        Tackles                                  Sacks

Glenn Dorsey                                   54                                         1.0

bbear200's analysis:  Trust in Scott Pioli.  Both Jackson and Dorsey performed at a promising level for their first year as 3-4 defensive ends in the National Football League.  In spite of the fact that they were weakly coached and had a NT in the middle that wouldn’t even make many other rosters in the NFL as a backup.

Can’t wait to see what Crennel can do when he coaches these guys in the nuances of the 3-4 defense and when Pioli adds an NFL caliber NT (maybe the newly arrived Shaun Smith) through free agency or draft.  2010 may not be the breakout year, but feel good about 2011.

Remember when King Carl signed a running back that had been dumped by his former team because he was 33 years old and in the doghouse with the owner?

Marcus Allen had FIVE productive years for the Chiefs after we acquired him and I think the superbly conditioned Thomas Jones could have a similar 3-5 year run.

Jones is two years younger than Allen (31 vs. 33), but has a little more mileage than Allen did since Al Davis benched him for a couple of years before dumping him.

He’s played in 71 straight games which is the longest active streak for a running back in the league (Green Bay RB Ryan Grant is #2 with 47). Over the first 10 years of his career, he missed only 12 games and has not missed a game since the 2005 season with the Bears.

Jones has rushed for more yards in his 10 years prior to becoming a Chief (9,217) than Allen rushed for in his 11 years prior to becoming a Chief (8,545).

Jones joins a backfield with the budding star, Jamaal Charles.

Allen joined a backfield with the bust, Harvey Williams.

I think we should all respect and salute what our GM has done for us.  It's not often that you see a running back who rushed for 1,402 yards in the previous year signing a modest financial deal to become a complimentary back.  A running back who's strong between the tackles and in the red zone.  Who's an excellent receiver out of the backfield and a very good blocker.  A running back who represents a strong insurance policy in case Jamaal Charles isn't durable enough to hold up for an entire season.

If Charles and Jones stay healthy for the entire season, the Chiefs will have arguably the best running back tandem in the NFL in 2010.

Time to turn our attention to the draft and pray that Pioli can address NT, C and Safety in the 2010 NFL Draft.  I'm personally rooting for:

1 - Eric Berry

2A - Maurkice Pouncey

2B - Terrence Cody or Cam Thomas

Terrence Cody weighed in this morning at the NFL Combine at 354 pounds, 16 pounds less than his anxiety-inducing weight of 370 at the Senior Bowl.

Given the explosion of 3-4 defenses in the NFL, the shortage of nose tackle prospects and the franchise tags applied to every UFA NT this week, the Chiefs and others are competing for a very small number of quality players at the nose.

With proof that he has the work ethic to drop that much weight in a short period of time, it seems hard to imagine that Mt. Cody will make it out of the first round, so what should the Chiefs do?

It is a fact that Branden Albert had a difficult year at LT for the Chiefs in 2009.  He allowed twice as many sacks as he did in his rookie year of 2008 (9 vs. 4.5) and was the worst LT in his peer group of “franchise left tackles”.

We also know about the “extenuating circumstances” he had to deal with in 2009:

-Had to adjust to a new playing weight (lost 30 pounds during the offseason at Todd Haley’s request)

-Lost his offensive coordinator two weeks before the start of the season

-Had to learn an entirely new playbook for the second year in a row

-Blocked next to an aging and declining LG in Brian Waters (and with a C, RG and RT who would be backups, not starters for most NFL teams)

-Had a new quarterback (Matt Cassel) who was less mobile and held the ball longer than the one who started for most of the 2008 season (Tyler Thigpen)

-Directly felt the loss as the protector of the “blind side” of the “safety valve” in the Chiefs passing game, Tony Gonzalez, who always seemed open in 2008 for a short pass when the opponent’s d-line was closing in on Thiggy

-Suffered for the 1st half of the season, as the entire offense did, with a feature running back (LJ aka Valdemort) who averaged 3.3 yds a carry.  Defenses waited for the inevitable 3rd and long (after a failed run and a dropped pass) and then sent everyone

-Had to master a new zone blocking scheme

But here’s what you may not know:

1.      Branden Albert allowed ZERO SACKS in the last 6 games of the 2009 season including shutouts of NFL sack leader Elvis Dumervil (TWICE) and Aaron Schobel (tied for 11th in sacks in 2009)

2.      Every “franchise left tackle” in the NFL allowed more sacks in 2009 than he did in 2008 except for Jason Peters and Duane Brown (both of whom had HORRIBLE years in 2008 with 11.5 sacks allowed each).  The avg last yr is around 6-6.5 sacks

3.      The only “Class of 2008” left tackle chosen after Albert in 2008 to outperform him by more than 2 sacks allowed was Sam Baker (3 sacks less)

4.      Branden Albert allowed the same amount of sacks in 2009 as the “no show Pro Bowl substitute himself”, Bryant McKinnie, who protected “the ancient one” for Minnesota.  Don’t forget that McKinnie has the perennial All-Pro Hutchinson at LG

5.      The two first round tackles chosen in 2009 who played in 2009 (Jason Smith was injured) allowed only slightly less sacks than Branden.  Oher allowed 8 at RIGHT TACKLE, a much easier position for pass protection

Check out my chart below.  I believe in "Don" Pioli and he will make the right decision.  I will be VERY SURPRISED if the Chiefs take a left tackle with the 5th pick in the draft.

I believe that it's much smarter to draft Maurkice Pouncey in the 2nd round and let Brian Waters and Pouncey compete for the Left Guard position next year with the loser sliding over to Center.  Rudy Wisenheimer becomes the Right Guard, O’Callahan is the Right Tackle (having learned the system, had a full training camp and pre-season with the team, etc.), Leonard Pope actually blocks at TE (instead of the human sieve, Sean Ryan who had allowed 5 sacks in the early season games we started him in.  In spite of the two touchdowns he scored, we couldn’t afford to keep him in the lineup - 5 sacks/2 TDs = 2.5 sacks per TD ratio!  Any doubt why he was invisible for the last 10-12 games?) and we have the makings of a competitive NFL offensive line.  Hope for development at Guard from Colin Brown, grab another interior lineman in the 3rd – 5th rounds (a strength of Pioli’s) and the Chiefs offensive line will be just fine.

You often read in mock drafts that the Chiefs pick a Left Tackle at #5 to “improve 2 positions with one pick – Left Tackle and whatever position Branden moves to”.  What about improving 3 positions by drafting Pouncey?  LG, C, RG (assuming Rudy’s better at RG)

I pray Eric Berry is available at #5 and beseech Pioli and Haley to take him if he is.  The last time the Chiefs had an “erry” at safety (Deron Cherry), we had a pretty awesome defense.  Eric Berry makes Flowers even better.  He makes Brandon Carr much better.  He even makes our mediocre inside linebackers better.  The NFL is going through a pass-happy, big play phase.  TEN, that’s right TEN quarterbacks (almost 1/3 of the league!) passed for 4,000 yards last year.  Four of the ten, Romo, Roethlisberger, Rivers and Eli Manning, shredded the Chiefs. We need Eric Berry in the worst way whether Page comes back healthy or not.

If Berry is gone at #5, I think Scott will try desperately to trade down and failing that, grit his teeth and reach for either Rolando McClain or Dan Williams (actually prefer Mt Cody in the 2nd over Williams in the 1st – even if we trade down).

Lord, hear my prayer.  BB wants EB at #5.

BBEAR'S CHART OF SACKS ALLOWED IN 2009 BY “FRANCHISE LEFT TACKLES”

Best performance in 2009 = 2.5 sacks by Light/Vollmer NE and Johnson/Ugoh IND

 * = PRO BOWL 2009

CLASS OF 2008                    2009 SACKS                                 2008 SACKS          DRAFT POSITION

Jake Long MIA*                          5.0 sacks                                       2.5 sacks                   before Albert

Sam Baker ATL                          6.0 sacks                                     did not start                after Albert

Ryan Clady DEN*                       6.5 sacks                                      0.5 sacks                  before Albert                    

Duane Brown HOU                     7.5 sacks                                     11.5 sacks                 after Albert

Chris Williams CHI                      8.0 sacks                                      did not start               before Albert

Branden Albert KC                   9.0 sacks (0 in last 6 games)     4.5 sacks                                                      

Jeff Otah CAR                            NO STATS FOUND/INJURED      did not start                after Albert

VETERAN LEFT TACKLES

Michael Roos TEN                           5.0 sacks                             1.0 sack

Marcus McNeill SD                          5.0 sacks                             3.0 sacks

Joe Thomas CLE*                           6.0 sacks                             4.5 sacks

Jason Peters PHI*                           6.0 sacks                            11.5 sacks

D’Brickashaw Ferguson NYJ*         8.0 sacks                             4.0 sacks

Bryant McKinnie MIN*                     9.0 sacks                             4.0 sacks

CLASS OF 2009

Jason Smith STL                              INJURED

Eugene Monroe JAX                        7.0 sacks

Michael Oher BAL                            8.0 sacks at RIGHT TACKLE

It is a fact that Branden Albert had a difficult year at LT for the Chiefs in 2009.  He allowed twice as many sacks as he did in his rookie year of 2008 (9 vs. 4.5) and was the worst LT in his peer group of “franchise left tackles”.

We also know about the “extenuating circumstances” he had to deal with in 2009:

-Had to adjust to a new playing weight (lost 30 pounds during the offseason at Todd Haley’s request)

-Lost his offensive coordinator two weeks before the start of the season

-Had to learn an entirely new playbook for the second year in a row

-Blocked next to an aging and declining LG in Brian Waters (and with a C, RG and RT who would be backups, not starters for most NFL teams)

-Had a new quarterback (Matt Cassel) who was less mobile and held the ball longer than the one who started for most of the 2008 season (Tyler Thigpen)

-Directly felt the loss as the protector of the “blind side” of the “safety valve” in the Chiefs passing game, Tony Gonzalez, who always seemed open in 2008 for a short pass when the opponent’s d-line was closing in on Thiggy

-Suffered for the 1st half of the season, as the entire offense did, with a feature running back (LJ aka Valdemort) who averaged 3.3 yds a carry.  Defenses waited for the inevitable 3rd and long (after a failed run and a dropped pass) and then sent everyone

-Had to master a new zone blocking scheme

But here’s what you may not know:

1.      Branden Albert allowed ZERO SACKS in the last 6 games of the 2009 season including shutouts of NFL sack leader Elvis Dumervil (TWICE) and Aaron Schobel (tied for 11th in sacks in 2009)

2.      Every “franchise left tackle” in the NFL allowed more sacks in 2009 than he did in 2008 except for Jason Peters and Duane Brown (both of whom had HORRIBLE years in 2008 with 11.5 sacks allowed each).  The avg last yr is around 6-6.5 sacks

3.      The only “Class of 2008” left tackle chosen after Albert in 2008 to outperform him by more than 2 sacks allowed was Sam Baker (3 sacks less)

4.      Branden Albert allowed the same amount of sacks in 2009 as the “no show Pro Bowl substitute himself”, Bryant McKinnie, who protected “the ancient one” for Minnesota.  Don’t forget that McKinnie has the perennial All-Pro Hutchinson at LG

5.      The two first round tackles chosen in 2009 who played in 2009 (Jason Smith was injured) allowed only slightly less sacks than Branden.  Oher allowed 8 at RIGHT TACKLE, a much easier position for pass protection

Check out my chart below.  I believe in "Don" Pioli and he will make the right decision.  I will be VERY SURPRISED if the Chiefs take a left tackle with the 5th pick in the draft.

I believe that it's much smarter to draft Maurkice Pouncey in the 2nd round and let Brian Waters and Pouncey compete for the Left Guard position next year with the loser sliding over to Center.  Rudy Wisenheimer becomes the Right Guard, O’Callahan is the Right Tackle (having learned the system, had a full training camp and pre-season with the team, etc.), Leonard Pope actually blocks at TE (instead of the human sieve, Sean Ryan who had allowed 5 sacks in the early season games we started him in.  In spite of the two touchdowns he scored, we couldn’t afford to keep him in the lineup - 5 sacks/2 TDs = 2.5 sacks per TD ratio!  Any doubt why he was invisible for the last 10-12 games?) and we have the makings of a competitive NFL offensive line.  Hope for development at Guard from Colin Brown, grab another interior lineman in the 3rd – 5th rounds (a strength of Pioli’s) and the Chiefs offensive line will be just fine.

You often read in mock drafts that the Chiefs pick a Left Tackle at #5 to “improve 2 positions with one pick – Left Tackle and whatever position Branden moves to”.  What about improving 3 positions by drafting Pouncey?  LG, C, RG (assuming Rudy’s better at RG)

I pray Eric Berry is available at #5 and beseech Pioli and Haley to take him if he is.  The last time the Chiefs had an “erry” at safety (Deron Cherry), we had a pretty awesome defense.  Eric Berry makes Flowers even better.  He makes Brandon Carr much better.  He even makes our mediocre inside linebackers better.  The NFL is going through a pass-happy, big play phase.  TEN, that’s right TEN quarterbacks (almost 1/3 of the league!) passed for 4,000 yards last year.  Four of the ten, Romo, Roethlisberger, Rivers and Eli Manning, shredded the Chiefs. We need Eric Berry in the worst way whether Page comes back healthy or not.

If Berry is gone at #5, I think Scott will try desperately to trade down and failing that, grit his teeth and reach for either Rolando McClain or Dan Williams (actually prefer Mt Cody in the 2nd over Williams in the 1st – even if we trade down).

Lord, hear my prayer.  BB wants EB at #5.

BBEAR'S CHART OF SACKS ALLOWED IN 2009 BY “FRANCHISE LEFT TACKLES”

Best performance in 2009 = 2.5 sacks by Light/Vollmer NE and Johnson/Ugoh IND

 * = PRO BOWL 2009

CLASS OF 2008                    2009 SACKS                                 2008 SACKS          DRAFT POSITION

Jake Long MIA*                          5.0 sacks                                       2.5 sacks                   before Albert

Sam Baker ATL                          6.0 sacks                                     did not start                after Albert

Ryan Clady DEN*                       6.5 sacks                                      0.5 sacks                  before Albert                    

Duane Brown HOU                     7.5 sacks                                     11.5 sacks                 after Albert

Chris Williams CHI                      8.0 sacks                                      did not start               before Albert

Branden Albert KC                   9.0 sacks (0 in last 6 games)     4.5 sacks                                                      

Jeff Otah CAR                            NO STATS FOUND/INJURED      did not start                after Albert

VETERAN LEFT TACKLES

Michael Roos TEN                           5.0 sacks                             1.0 sack

Marcus McNeill SD                          5.0 sacks                             3.0 sacks

Joe Thomas CLE*                           6.0 sacks                             4.5 sacks

Jason Peters PHI*                           6.0 sacks                            11.5 sacks

D’Brickashaw Ferguson NYJ*         8.0 sacks                             4.0 sacks

Bryant McKinnie MIN*                     9.0 sacks                             4.0 sacks

CLASS OF 2009

Jason Smith STL                              INJURED

Eugene Monroe JAX                        7.0 sacks

Michael Oher BAL                            8.0 sacks at RIGHT TACKLE