Rightfully so there have been alot of jokes and maybe some frustration running around about the number of quarterbacks committed for next year coinciding with how the two quarterback system was run last year. I like many of you don't like the idea of a pure two quarterback rotation and so I wanted to get some clarity on if this was actually likely to be the case. I want to share with you a little bit of what I found and what I think it means. I am no means an expert and I very well could be dead wrong but I think I have rounded up some decent conclusions.

One of the more important bits of info I came across was actually straight out of Hope's mouth in his most recent Gold and Black Live. He described in a few minutes his plan for the quarterback position. He wants to name a starter and it seems like he prefers that starter to be a more traditional drop-back passer. He also wants one or several athlete quarterbacks who will primarily line up at other spots like halfback or wideout but take a sizable amount of surprise wildcat snaps. He envisions moving the pocket passer out wide forcing the defense to put a man on him thus thinning the interior defense so the athlete quarterback has more room to run. Hope also said he wants the number two quarterback to take regular game snaps at quarterback so if the number one goes down the team isn't finished.

Hope said this has been his plan for a while but was derailed by injury. He wanted Marve to be the starter and then line up Henry (and I also assume Siller) everywhere including quarterback. With both of these guys back we might be able to see this Hope quarterback master plan come together for a full season in 2012. After these guys are gone it is clear, after I looked at all of the recruits as a whole, that Hope is setting up this system for the next half decade.

Lets look at how these guys will fit:

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This is my second go at a mock draft and I made it just one round longer than the last and added some predicted comp picks. If you want to see the one from back in November go here. For the first two rounds I added a bit of my own commentary and then just listed the last two. I'm a bit exhausted from writing all this up so I'll just go ahead and give it after the jump. I'd love any feedback on how you felt I did.

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There has been alot of buzz lately about what the hiring of a defensive coordinator from a '3-4' team as our head coach means for our base 4-3 defense. I don't think we will know for sure for a while what Pagano will do but lets just assume he will mold our defense after the Baltimore defense. Before I try and explain their system, and I'm no expert, you should check out a couple of really good SB nation articles about the Raven's defense and the 3-4 in general:

Baltimore Beat Down

Buffalo Rumblings #1

Buffalo Rumblings #2

As the author said in the Baltimore Beat Down article, to explain the hybrid 3-4 they run would take pages upon pages but I'll try to very quickly and crudely explain it. It is very similar to a conventional 3-4 as it will show a nose tackle flanked by two big and preferably long defensive ends to play over the tackles (these are also sometimes referred to as DT/DE as they are a sort of hybrid position). Also just like other 3-4 defenses two middle linebackers set up behind the tackles but how the outside linebackers play is the difference. The right side (outisde of the left tackle) outside linebacker is called a rush linebacker as that player primarily rushes and is not often asked to fall into coverage. The left outside linebacker will still rush the passer but is asked to do more in coverage. In Baltimore's current defense Terrell Suggs is is the rush linebacker and Jarret Johnson is the strongside outside linebacker. Suggs lines up often as a down defensive end and their 3-4 defense ends up more like our 4-3 than a conventional PIT or GB 3-4 outside linebacker.

Their defense also can quickly transform and stick in a four man front should their opponent need to pass often. Just pull the nose tackle and send in the nickel corner and instantly you have a 4-3 nickel defense.

After the break I will attempt to see how we can add our current pieces, free agents and draft choices to mold our defense to this scheme.

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I've seen some numbers thrown around about our cap situation and who we can and can't keep. I have my own ideas about who we should try hardest to keep around, namely Freeney and Mathis. I did some research on cap number calculations, last year's rookie contracts, expected franchise tag values at different positions and then stole some numbers off of Coltzilla's page (so major hat tip to him).

There are are million ways this postseason can play out. If Manning is released it doesn't matter what our cap will look like because we will have a ton of space available and will be rebuilding with cheaper contracts anyways. If we keep Manning and don't take Luck we will add a serious amount of cheap talent from trading down and so keeping a ton of high paid veterans wont be as important. The most important cap situation will be if we keep Manning and draft Luck. That is the situation I will look at.

After the jump is a list of all 53 players on a theoretical 2012 roster with both Manning and Luck. I am assuming a 125 million cap next year so someone alert me if that is way off. I also drafted theoretical players based on need and then gave them contracts comparable to players at their draft position last year. I put the franchise tag on Mathis, resigned Wayne, Tamme and Saturday, cut Clark, Addai and Bullet and left Freeney and Brackett alone. I feel that Mathis is the most important FA we have and would be well worth the 11 million likely franchise tag. Wayne should not be extremely expensive next year because of the flood of good FA wideouts and it will be important to keep at least one of Wayne/Garcon as a #1 guy. Saturday looked solid and healthy this year and if he is able to come back he should. Clark could be brought back for another 3-4 million but Tamme's '10 and his own '11 might have made him expendable. I love Addai but he just doesn't play enough to warrant his salary while Brown has developed enough to take his spot. I had a hard time finding Bullet's salary so there may be a cap hit with him if he had any bonus money. I also don't know how Collins is going to affect our 2012 cap if any. Anyone know?

If the below sheet proves true we could still be able to add a RG, CB, or WR in FA if we need and there is value there. For example we could sign either a guard or corner in FA and then draft the other at #33. Freeney may also be open to restructuring and extending his contract and therefore reducing his 2012 cap number by maybe 3-5 million. The same goes for Mathis to avoid the franchise tag.

This post is just an example of how we could go for it all next year. We would need a healthy Manning and offensive line and a great GM to find depth in the draft and cheap free agency. It would definitely take some good fortune and expert guidance but this roster is not a total lost cause.

If you see something blatantly wrong with my numbers please tell me and I'll do my best to correct it. Here they are after the jump:

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This is the first first mock draft I have put together but I have been following the draft pretty closely for the last several years.  I found it was both fun and changing to come up with three rounds that made sense and also that I had to leave plenty of good players out for lack of room.

I did not mock any trades.  The draft order was determined by current records and any ties in record were sorted by my discretion.

Thanks for looking it over and please leave some feedback if you can.  I am prone to typographical errors so please forgive me if you come across any though I did my best to locate them all.

The mock will be after the jump and each pick has a small explanation following it.

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I know there have been a few of these running around here so I thought we could put our ideas for our team's draft into one thread.  Seeing a bunch of lists all together should also help give people less familiar with certain teams get a feel for team needs of other teams and what kind of players their fans think should fill those needs.  

Since I'm a Colts fan (yay for me) I'll throw up a few of my variations to start out.

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I first want to say I like Derek Lowe and have liked him since I really started to take notice in his late Dodger days and even when he wasn't going so well in his early Braves days.  What can I say? I have a thing for inning eating groundballers.  Lately though, Lowe has stopped being the inning eating groundballer and become something else - something better it seems.  As weird as it may sound, Lowe's arm injury late last year has been a revelation for Lowe and the Braves.  Since the injury Lowe fiddled with his mechanics and changed how he pitched.  Just look at the results:

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Most mocks this year have the Colts picking an offensive tackle like Sherrod, Costanzo or one of a few others.  On the surface this may seem like a slam dunk safe pick and it may be, but I think there are few reasons why it may not be.

First we have to understand what went wrong for the Colts line last year.  Johnson in my opinion is a underrated left tackle and was one of our better linemen in 2010 while never being 100% healthy.  You could definitely do better than Johnson but you could do much worse.  I'm not convinced that any of the tackles in this class could step right in and do a better job in 2011 than him on the blindside.  Kyle DeVan at left guard quietly had a decent year both in pass pro and run blocking.  He was not great but he was consistently adequate and is still developing at 25 years old.  Saturday may no longer be an above average pure blocker but his mind and teamwork with Manning in setting protections gives him great value.  The right side of the line was not quite as effective as the left.  According to Football Outsiders our YPC over the LT was 4.46, 3.65 up the middle and 3.29 over the right tackle.  As you can see our running game got progressively worse towards the right side.  Mike Pollak at right guard is a good technician and is very smart but was simply physically outmatched at guard.  His brain will make him a good replacement for Saturday someday but his guard spot for now needs upgraded.  Ryan Diem has been a solid player for the Colts for while but its a shame that he seems to be finished as a starter.  He got beat consistently by speed rushers and couldn't move well enough in space to be an effective blocker in our zone blocking scheme.  I don't think he will be brought back at his current salary and will be replaced.

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I know its pretty doom and gloom around here lately but I think we could solve most of this team's problems by upgrading one unit on the team.  By the title and general tenor around here I bet you know I'm referring to the offensive line.  Fixing the offensive line would have a ripple effect that would improve the team on all levels.  If Manning has more time to throw even to non-elite targets he will find open men and if we can run block well enough to run against two deep safeties and nickel/dime sets we will force run sets so Manning can pass even more effectively.  Giving Manning this kind of help will result in more points and TOP which will allow our defense to play fewer minutes with the lead more often - which it is designed to do and does very well.  The offensive line is also a unit that won't fix itself by getting healthy like our receiving core and defensive backfield should with even average luck.  The line needs to be fixed and the way to do that is through the draft.

Our priorities in our search of a better line should be in order:

1. Build an elite pass blocking line above all else - remember we have the greatest QB of all time and we should be pass first

2. Don't reach for size in hope of helping the run, just get better more athletic and powerful zone blocking linemen who improve the scheme we already have

3. Build a line that can run block against dime and nickel packages with two deep safeties - meaning run block at least average and that doesn't have to be fantastic

3. Target at least one tackle in the first or second round who can protect Manning's blindside

4. Target at least one guard who can upgrade the run

5. Target athletic ability, intelligence and durability as keeping a smart zone blocking line that can move well and play as a unit over long stretches will be very effective  

After the break I'll give a rundown of who we have and who we could add to our 2011 line.  I hope this can spark some intelligent conversation about our line and its future.

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This post is an addition to the swing and miss post for the starters.  The idea is the same as is the layout.  I selected the relievers that were either significant to last year's team, should have an impact next year, or both.

*I tried just adding this to the first post but it kept cutting me off.  Does anyone know of a fanpost length limit?*

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I was visiting another SB blog Royals Review today (yes I know but I have to have an AL team right?) and they had an interesting article that broke down the swing and miss percentages for their pitchers over the last year.  So in this post I will shamefully rip off the idea and look at the swing and miss percentages for our starters who made any starts last year.  I have listed the number of pitches, percentage of each thrown, average velocity, swing and miss, fouled off, put in play and with a little spreadsheet calculating the total swing and miss percentage for all pitches from the individual pitcher.

Of course wiff percentage isn't the end all or even the near end all measurement for a pitcher's effectiveness but in a vacuum a swing and miss is the best outcome a pitcher can hope for and it is a fairly good measure of how hard to hit a pitch is. 

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I've been thinking about this for a few days but I can finally start a post about it without jinxing anything.  I have listed those who I think will be locks to make the 25 man playoff roster and those who have a shot (ie on the 40 man). 

Does anyone know when they will announce the official roster?

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As I, like many of you, think about what kind of players the Braves could acquire to improve our offense I have made a fairly obvious observation that I'm sure many are aware of.  One of the points most often brought up is how CF is the position we could improve the most offensively but looking over the available impact outfield bats (you know who they are - Bautista, Hart, Willingham etc - so we don't need to rosterbate here) you see that they play the corner spots which in my opinion do not need upgrades.  Diaz and Hinske will do a solid job in  LF while providing a fresh and well tuned bench bat from whoever doesn't get the start that day and Heyward is obviously not going to lose playing time if he is healthy.  Perhaps playing Heyward in center would solve his mismatch of need for a centerfielder and only corner outfielders being available.  I'm not sure it is a very good idea so I wanted to throw out my thoughts on the subject:

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I thought it would be interesting to see what people who know more than I do think is the best collection of a five man rotation, setup, and closer prospects in a single organization is.  By this I mean if you could take the third year in the bigs of each of the prospects chosen and magically make them all happen in the same year and by doing that determine what group from one organization would make up the best group of seven pitchers.



Just to start off I offer up this group from Atlanta after the jump.  I think you may be able to find a few better groups but I can't think of many.

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I have seen a few posters request some sort of long term payroll projection so I thought I might throw one together.  A few notes about the table posted after the jump:

- '10 salaries are listed with all incentives included

- If a player has an option it's value is listed with a 'P' next to it with the buyout (if any) listed next to it in parenthesis.

- All salaries guaranteed are listed along with at least the 400k minimum in every  other cell.  This will increase obviously with arbitration awards and FA signings but its the listing of the minimum commited in total salary.

- Each arbitration year is listed A1-A4.  This is useful because you can just eyeball how expensive players will be in respective years and how long we get to have control over them.

- I have Heyward and Kimbrel coming up midseason in this writeup, but if they come up earlier you can just move the arbitration years up one year.

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Every year for my fantasy baseball draft I do a bit of spreadsheeting with Bill James projections and CHONE projections to get general idea of how the fantasy stars will do next year.  After ryan c posted his abbreviated list of Bill James projections I thought I might share my lists as it concerns the Braves.

I like using both Bill James and CHONE because James is a bit optimistic and CHONE is a bit of a downer so an average between the two is a happy medium.  Also James is an educated human guess that takes into account things other than just stats and CHONE is a purely mathematical projection, so again an average between the two is a nice medium.


So, after the jump are both James' and CHONE's projections and a third spreadsheet that averages them together.  The lists include peripheral stats and old fashioned slash lines.

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Today at work I was waiting for samples to complete their preparation so I took a stroll down memory lane (via baseball-reference.com) to pass the time.  I went through and looked at the individual stats for the Braves over the past few years just to refresh my memory of who did what and so on.  I then stumbled upon the 1995 Braves, you know the 90 win WS Champion 1995 Braves, and something struck me.  This 1995 Braves seem like the team, in some ways, that Wren has talked about trying to build; a team with an elite starting rotation, a good pen, good defense, and a offense predicated on a bunch of guys with 20+HR power but lacking that 'big bat' guy.

Just look at the sats (after the jump) and see for yourself that a team like the one we are building can win a bunch of games and win a WS.      

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Many times reading through the blogosphere I see fans ask about how the Braves payroll stands or how much such and such player makes.  Because of this I decided I would post a current projected 25 man roster with all the salary info included and all the numbers crunched.

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As we are all aware our Braves have been on a little tear lately and are now an amazing 44-26 in the post Frenchy era.  Wren has rebuilt this team into one that can win every single night with a legit frontline starter on the mound every night.  With all of the 'rosterbation' flying around and ideas of who we should bring in getting thrown around, I thought it might be interesting to see how it would be financially possible to keep this winning core together.

I realize this may be a fruitless exercise as Wren will likely let one or both of Soriano and Gonzo leave for some picks but I wanted to crunch some numbers and see what would be needed to keep the key players from this run around.  After the jump there will be a table with the current '09 salary and players with a list of players with the exact same total salary for '10.  This comes with a few assumptions which I will get to later.

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In this thread I'd like to discuss what makes us the most excited about the Pirates future.  For me I am really excited to see Morton get a full time shot at reaching his potential as a MLB frontline starter.  I really, really think he is going to develop into/continue to be a very good starter.

As an aside I'd like to build on the thoughts of 'a random Mets fan' and give my view from a 'random Braves fan'.  I grew up in central Indiana so obviously I didn't have a local team to root for but the Braves were on TV ALL THE TIME so I grew up saturated in loving the Braves.  On the other hand my dad took me to regular baseball games so we would go see the Cubs, Reds, and Cards play each other and the rest of the NL Central.  I know don't hate me but I like every team in the central but the Stros (don't know why)......

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