SB Nation User Blog: beeniez

A Tom Glavine Poem by beeniez (Offensive)

beeniez — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 02:24:10 -0000

Ode to the Glavster
Here's a little poem that I wrote just for you,
I thought it'd be classier than just saying "fuck you."
Everyone says you're so professional with class,
So hopefully this is up your alley, and also your ass.

You're intelligent, crafty, and incredibly boring,
Your fastball is so slow that it leaves me snoring.
Your spiked hair at such an old age has my mind wondering:
Which gay man's bunghole have you been plundering?

But this little poem isn't about all that,
It's about those two pitches that are now so flat.
I could probably run faster than your fastest fastball,
And also finish banging your hott wife in a late night booty call.

Perhaps that was harsh and I should leave out your wife,
But just shut up the eff up already about your latest strife.
Maybe you and Smoltzie can cry in each other's arms,
While nuzzling your head in his grizzly beard of charms.

Maybe this poem was a little unfair and a bit negate,
But who are you to complain, when your pitches are called six inches off the plate.
Just shut up and be happy that you lived millions of people's dreams,
Be in awe of the other Tommy, and forget these "financially driven" schemes.

Braves hope for Don Sutton return

beeniez — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 21:48:42 -0000

Braves hope for Don Sutton return

It seems the Braves are negotiating with the Nationals to bring Don Sutton back as a replacement for Skip and Pete. I don't know about you guys, but I loved me some Don Sutton. The article says they're hoping to pair Don Sutton with Jim Powell - the Brewers' announcer.

So How Much Money is Left?

beeniez — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 20:17:12 -0000

The Braves were rumored to have ~$40 million dollars to work with at the beginning of the offseason. With Lowe, Kawakami, Ross, and arbitration raises, how much is left? A quick visit to Cot's Baseball Contracts and a calculator finds we might have a pretty good chunk left. Here's the list:

Derek Lowe - $15 million
Tim Hudson - $13 million
Javier Vazquez - $11.5 million
Chipper Jones - $10 million
Kenshin Kawakami - $8.3 million
Rafael Soriano - $6.1 million
Brian McCann - $3.5 million
Mike Gonzalez - ~$3.0 million arb
Casey Kotchman - ~$3.0 million arb
Kelly Johnson - ~$2.0 million arb
Omar Infante - $1.85 million
David Ross - $1.4 million
Matt Diaz - $1.2 million
Jeff "I wish I accepted that long-term deal now" Francouer - ~$1 million
Greg Norton - $0.8 million
Manny Acosta - $0.4 million
Josh Anderson - $0.4 million
Jeff Bennett - $0.4 million
Gregor Blanco - $0.4 million
Blaine Boyer - $0.4 million
Jorge Campillo - $0.4 million
Buddy Carlyle - $0.4 million
Yunel Escobar - $0.4 million
Jair Jurrjens - $0.4 million
Anthony Lerew - $0.4 million
Boone Logan - $0.4 million
Peter Moylan - $0.4 million
Eric O'Flaherty - $0.4 million
Martin Prado - $0.4 million

Mr. Calculator tells me that's ~$87.25 million for next year. Our payroll was $102 million last year and we were promised and an increase in payroll. We'll be generous with the amount increase and assume that the promise still holds with $105 million budget. That's ~$17 million dollars to work with. That's a legimate outfield bat and resigning Ohman and Glavine with some room. Dare I say we have one more big move?

The John Smoltz Rant

beeniez — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 19:18:04 -0000

Okay, so emotions have subsided after a few days and I can finally think clearly: fuck you John Smoltz. I'll start off by saying that I love John Smoltz the pitcher but I can't stand John Smoltz the person. If I hear "He's just really good at everything - he's even good at ping pong," one more goddamn time, I'm going to eat my fucking left hand zombie-style.

"But they didn't give me the respect I deserve," cried Smoltz. So respect and money go hand-in-hand now, do they? "If they were going to gamble millions on anyone, why not Smoltzie?" Okay, let's take a timeout for a second, Smoltzie is a pretty gay nickname. Time in. The Braves gambled precisely $14 million dollars on Smoltz last year and got exactly five starts and a relief appearance - or $500,000 per inning. The hell do you call that then, Smoltzie-poo? What about loyalty to your team after a fuck-knuckle year like that?

Oh, you want more respect! Okay, what about if we let you invent your own unmonitored Spring Training routine? Fuck that, you say? More? Okay, well, I'm going to have to go in the back and talk to the manager on this one... alright, now, we've never done this before but he said we can do it given the special circumstances. We'll let you decide to pitch in whatever role you want whenever you want. Haven't started in years? Psh, here's the opening nod. Spent the last two months on the DL working on a new windup and have no idea how good you're going to be? Closer? Done. Now as a fan, those things are done for a player out of respect - not giving away millions of dollars to hamper a team even further when it's in win-now mode because ‘Smoltz' is written on the back of your jersey. And because Wren has a budget to work with, you decide to be a douche-nozzle and fuck away any respect you have for fans? Makes complete sense!

You know, all these years he's been trying to get out from behind the shadow of Maddux and Glavine. Well, Smoltzie-poo, you were well on your way of doing that by staying with Atlanta. Then you decided to fuck things up by following their footsteps. I hope Tom Glavine retires and you blow out your arm, so you're forced to be inducted into the Hall of Fame with Glavine and Maddux at the sametime. Then at the ceremony, Glavine and Maddux will give two tear jerking speeches in succession and just as you're walking up to the podium to give your predictable 2-hour speech and an open challenge to the crowd to a Texas Ping Pong Deathmatch, the MC announces to the crowd that that's all the time we have and you continue to live in their shadow for eternity.

You're a sellout, Smoltz, anyway you put it. There's a counter to every point you make about the Braves. The large discrepancies between the two offers? I know you're a dumbass but a 2.3% salary difference really isn't that big of deal when you're talking about $130 million goddamn dollars. Wren being cheap? That doesn't make any sense after he's acquired an $11.5 million/year pitcher, signed a backup catcher to a $3 million dollar deal, made an $80 million dollar offer to another pitcher, and looking to spend ~$40 million on Lowe just this off-season. Just wanted to win another ring? Well, I hate to burst your bubble, but you just signed to the toughest division in baseball - it's definitely not a sure thing with the Rays and Yankees ~~cumming~~ coming up the rear.

So why didn't you get your precious $3 million dollars? Because they thought you had more class, that you might provide a discount of guaranteed money after the surgery and previous year, and they even had confidence in you by giving you large incentives based soley on staying healthy - no matter how good or bad you pitched. Apparently you don't have confidence in yourself, Smoltzie, so fuck you ~~and your family~~.

Jerry's final thought: Players need to get a grip on reality and realize that it's not the GMs' money. He's just a guy with a budget - he only has loyalty when there is a budget for it. Wren wanted Smoltz back, everyone in the front office did. The Padres didn't even meet with Hoffman - *that* is lack of respect for an aging star. Smoltz bolted when fans needed him most. Never mind any respect and loyalty that Wren should have for Smoltz, Smoltz's respect and loyalty to fans should have been much higher and even a true "large discrepancy" shouldn't have got in the way. Just as the auto-industry's CEO's had a hard time convincing congress to give them bail out money as they traveled to Washington on a private plane, you're going to have a hard time convincing me that you deserve more money after $130 million career earnings in an economy like this.

FireArnTellem

beeniez — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 02:41:20 -0000

With regard to the negotiations between the Atlanta Braves and Rafael Furcal, the essential facts are clear and cannot be disputed.

I guess that's why we've heard a million different reports... They all have the same conclusion though: You're batshit crazy and a money-grubbing dumbass.

1. There was never an agreement reached between Rafael Furcal and the Atlanta Braves.

So what the fuck were you going to do with that term sheet? Fold it up to see who you're going to marry when you're older? Are you that much of a dumbass that you can't remember the terms of the deal? Three years, $30 million, vesting option for the fourth year with 130 games played. There, I did it for you and I didn't need a term sheet, you dumbshit.

2. In fact, the Braves were fully aware that Furcal was not prepared to make a decision but had requested an opportunity to sleep on it, before deciding.

If the Braves were fully aware, why did they go ape-shit over your agency's unethical tactics? You said he "requested an opportunity to sleep on it," before deciding. I believe it was your partner, Paul "The Human Douchebag" Kinzer, that *told him* to sleep on it - Furcal was prepared to sign but you knew the Dodgers might top that offer.

3. Moreover, the Baseball rules which all agents and teams operate under are clear that no deal exists between a player and a team unless and until: (i) there is a signed and executed player agreement or; (ii) the Player's Union and the Commissioner's office have otherwise confirmed the deal. Neither occurred here.

No one is disputing this so I don't know why you brought it up. You did it legally, good-for-fucking you. Your partner still verbally agreed to the deal and it doesn't disprove that you're still a money-grubbing douchebag that used unethical means to get more money.

4. Furcal ultimately decided to accept the Dodgers' offer,

a.k.a. the Braves' offer v2.0,

taking into consideration a number of factors the most important of which was his desire to continue playing short-stop and not make the position change to second base that the Braves were requiring.

Okay, first off, Furcal said he wouldn't mind moving to second base to the Braves. Wren mentions it several times in numerous sources. He's played the position numerous times in winter leagues. Second, it wasn't 100% that he would be playing second base. Everyone in the whole goddamm world knew someone was going to get traded and Furcal likely would end up playing shortstop. Third, Furcal needs to stop being a puss, take his panties off, realize that Escobar is a better shortstop defensively, and be a team player.

5. Losing out on an all-star player like Furcal is always disappointing, and we understand the Braves' frustration with the outcome of this negotiation, but it does not change in any way the fact that we conducted ourselves with integrity and complied with all rules of major league baseball throughout this process.

I seriously giggled when you typed "integrity."

6. Our primary obligation is to serve our clients best interests, and we will continue to do so in accordance with all relevant rules governing MLB negotiations and the utmost integrity.

"Our clients best interests," is also known as "The Dodgers might top this deal if I somehow get to talk to them again." And seriously, you are no longer allowed to use the word "integrity."

7. If it serves our clients we will continue to present opportunities to the Braves, which in accordance with the rules governing Major League Baseball, the Braves must entertain. We hope that once emotions have subsided, the Braves will act in a manner consistent with not only their obligations under the Collective Bargaining Agreement and The National Labor Relations Act, but also the best interests of the franchise. In short, we would not want this incident to color their better judgment.

Sure, they'll entertain offers. In fact, I hope it gets to the point where they fax over a term sheet with a picture of Wren's ass, which has a fresh tattoo of "Kinzer and Tellem like it here," with an arrow pointing at his bunghole, on the back. And you're right, the Braves emotions might subside tomorrow, but you'll be an unethical dumbass forever.

FireFurmanBisher

beeniez — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 20:40:09 -0000

So Furman Bisher decided to publish a ridiculous article over at the AJC. FireJoeMorgan would probably turn over in its grave if it read that blog and my attempt at duplicating their style. Whatever. Plus, I get it, Bisher used to be a legend sportswriter blah, blah, blah. That still doesn't excuse him for being posting ridiculous crap. Here's the article - hope you enjoy.

There comes a time in the life of any guy who owns a word processor that he is seized by this urge to take over the management of somebody's baseball team.

First off, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that 90-year old Furman isn't talking about people who use Microsoft Word and Notepad, which everyone knows is essential to building a baseball team, when he says "word processor."

"Word processor may also refer to an obsolete type of stand-alone office machine, popular in the 1970s and 80s." - Wikipedia

And my suspicion is correct. Furman, I think what you're referring to is a "computer."

In this case: The Braves.

Let's play the Braves drinking game. Take one drink for every time he mentions 14 division titles, the 1991 Worst-to-First season, or Jeff Blauser.

While most everybody else is looking in the direction of some football conflict, perhaps I can reply to the seizure without hurting somebody's feelings.

Referring to it as a "seizure" probably won't help.

Once upon a time the Braves usually dealt from within when talent was in need.

List of talent on the Braves that have came from within in 2008: Manny Acosta, Jeff Bennett, Blaine Boyer, Francisley Bueno, Jorge Campillo, Buddy Carlyle, Chuck James, Brent Lillibridge, Charlie Morton, James Parr, Jo-Jo Reyes, Phil Stockman, Brian McCann, Clint Sammons, Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, Gregor Blanco, Jeff Francoeur, Brandon Jones.

In other words, they still "usually" do this.

That meant having a lot of "bird dogs"- free agent scouts who got paid only when they produced.

Goddamn unions.

When the Braves set off on their seasons of exceptional prosperity in the early 90's, they did it, mainly, with farm-grown produce.

Don't you like how he slipped in "mainly" so I couldn't bring up all those Greg Maddux Cy Young awards, Terry Pendleton's MVP, and Fred McGriff's should-be-in-the-Hall-of-Fame career? And that's one more drink.

Along they came, Steve Avery, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Mark Lemke, Jeff Blauser, Ron Gant, Mark Wohlers, Chipper Jones, Kent Mercker, Mike Stanton, Javier Lopez, Kevin Millwood, and on and on.

All future HOFers... and another drink.

I cite, in particular, here, Smoltz and Glavine, neither of whom is registered on the 40-man off-season roster.

Because they're free agents coming back from major arm surgeries. Signing 40+ year-old pitchers to millions of dollars coming off of huge arm surgeries is a dumb-shit move when you don't know if they can ever throw another baseball. Their 40-man roster spot is being filled with prospects so they won't be lost in the Rule V draft.

"Wren has said numerous times that he's interested in bringing Tom Glavine and John Smoltz back next year if they prove they can still pitch." - Mark Bowman, MLB.com's Atlanta Braves beat writer.

Last season was the Braves' worst since 1990. just [sic] before John Schuerholz's reign of prosperity began.

Does that count as mentioning the Worst-to-First year?

The prospect of facing the next season with Jair Jurrjens as ace of the staff seems to have present management so perturbed that they went out and signed another pitcher with a losing record and an inflated ERA, Javier Vazquez.

Oh, dear God. He did it. He really fucking did it. He really used Win-Loss and ERA to evaluate a pitcher. And you know what, he did it on a word processor.

Not to malign Senor Vazquez,

Or Retarded Rusty, Darkie Dan, and towel-headed Muhammed,

but such signings as these have not worked out to the glory of the cause, and I cite here Russ Ortiz, Albie Lopez and the most costly of all, Mike Hampton, who took off for other parts after three seasons as a Braves' dependent.

So basically, the Braves need to stop taking chances whatsoever. They keep manufacturing aces left and right, only to trade them away. We need to take the Chuck James, Kyle Davies, and Anthony Lerews of the world and leave them in their rotation. All that money they have to spend this offseason? Save it - because they can stay within the organization and leave Jorge Campillo as their number-two starter.

/sarcasm.

As if they didn't learn a costly lesson from that, they are now leaving their calling card with A.J. Burnett's agent, 31 years old and twice under the knife. (Burnett, not his agent.)

But he won 18 games and had an ERA of 4.07 last year! (Burnett, not his agent.)

Oh, but for the likes of the young and handsome Adam Wainwright, now the Cardinals' ace, who was traded away for one season with the nomadic J.D. Drew.

Sure, the Braves probably regret that move - what team doesn't have a move they wish they could take back. But JD Drew did lead the 2004 Braves in most offensive categories - becoming a huge reason the Braves made the postseason that year. Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright missed most of last year to injury.

Hindsight's 20/20, Furman. During those "prosperity" years, the Braves traded Jermaine Dye and Jason Schmidt and still managed to win.

They did happen to pick up an inexpensive Casey Kotchman in the deal, but back to Vazquez again, they traded a hot number with power, Tyler Flowers, for him. And Tyler can play first base, and has power.

You can't turn shit into gold and Flowers has power. You have to trade something good to get something good, like Flowers power for MLB talent. Other teams are smarter than you think. Plus, Flowers has power. Flower Power.

Yes, Flowers *can* play first base - because he sucks at catcher. He's also old for his league and coming off a steroid suspension. Contrary to Furman belief, the Braves have other power hitting prospects and can afford to spare one for proven MLB talent.

What should bother Frank Wren is what's going on with all those 47 scouts and those special assistants who are supposed to be covering the world and feeding that fallow farm system.

And this is where Furman loses complete credibility. Notice the word "fallow." Now, if you're under the age of 75, you might not know what that means (or maybe I'm just stupid.) But it means inactive. You hear that Tommy Hanson? You and your leading-the-minors-in-strikeouts, opponent-batting average and all those no-hitters can go fuck themselves. Jason Heyward the #3 prospect in all of baseball? Sorry. Freddie Freeman? Gorkys Hernandez? Julio Teheran? Losers. Rohrbough? Locke? Medlen? Hicks? Johnson? Kimbrel? DeVall? Never heard of them. Todd Redmond?! He won all those games, Furman, with a superb ERA!

I know it's incredibly hard to fathom, Furman, but times have really changed. You actually have to do in-depth research nowadays, some stats are actually highly team dependent, and taking 47 scouts to evaluate talent for a $500 million dollar baseball franchise isn't exactly mind blowing. There's also a huge flaw in Furman's philosophy: if you don't trade for anyone, and you don't sign any free agents, you've severely limited the amount of talent that can be brought in - ergo, more losing seasons.

Analysis of the Peavy Situation

beeniez — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 21:44:48 -0000

The Braves currently have the leverage in the Jake Peavy trade negotiations. They are probably the only real suitor, among the limited, for his services. The Braves do not need to panic as soon as one free agent starter signs. While Dempster eliminated himself from the Braves, the Cubs practically eliminated themselves from Peavy. (I know they said they might still pursue Peavy even after signing Dempster, but why would they spend the money *and* prospects on another star starter and not on their hometown boy Kerry Wood?) The Braves will continue to have all the leverage until after all the big name free agent starters disappear with the Braves standing there empty handed.

Towers may look dumb now but I think he's being realistic. The Braves need two starters - they even admit it. How hard is it to find *one* quality starter, let alone "*two*? Towers probably knows that the chances of the Braves getting two quality starting pitchers not named Jake Peavy is very small. But, that still doesn't take away from their pressing need to trade him with only a limited amount of suitors. I do not think that Peavy is going to expand his teams much further - he might if that team extends his contract to Sabathia money, but we saw last year that only one team was willing to spend the record money and prospects with Johan Santana. The Twins were forced to take a smaller package then they visioned - that's what happens when a player has team by the balls.

The Padres probably need to trade Peavy more than the Braves need to trade for Peavy - even if the Braves are still starting pitcher-less and desperate. I'm sure it's easier to explain to your boss why your team lost 90 games than it is to explain to your boss why you failed to decrease payroll by $20 or so million. Let's be honest for a second: the Braves will need to add several key pieces to seriously contend next year. If they Braves lose out on all those free agent pitchers, which they need *two* of, the Padres still are only offering only *one* starting pitcher. Peavy alone will not help the Braves compete next year, so if they lose out on all the other free agents then I think the need to trade for Peavy actually decreases. It wouldn't make much sense trading for Peavy now for hopes of 2010, unless another club trades for him he's not going anywhere - which seems to be unlikely, we'd have to pay his salary for a non-contending year, give up prospects who could have better value in a year, Peavy could be an entirely different health risk in a year, and our need for starting pitching might not be so glaring as it is now if some players find their groove.

Peavy signed his below market contract because he was happy and wanted to keep winning in San Diego. Well, now they want to trade him - he's obviously unhappy, and they're not going to win anytime soon. If you love your company so much that you agree to take a salary cut to stay with them, but then afterwards they want to send you somewhere else, are you going to be happy and play along? I'd assume that Peavy would make this as difficult for them as possible - and rightfully so. He signed a contract to stay with San Diego. If they wanted to move me, I'd be very particular of where I was willing to go and not lenient at all - especially since I gave up free agency and took a pay cut to stay. This continues to put the Padres at a disadvantage.

The Braves shouldn't panic about Peavy going anywhere - the Braves still have the leverage and the best prospects. A good GM would call up the Braves and ask if they can beat a current offer that will send Peavy elsewhere - but right now it's hard to determine if Towers is being a good GM. If the Braves want *two* quality starting pitchers, they will have to sign Burnett, Lowe, Sheets, or Sabathia pretty quickly. That would definitely frighten Towers and continue to give the Braves leverage throughout the offseason.

Rosterbation:
The Braves need to sign AJ Burnett. I think if the Braves signed Burnett, it would increase their chances of getting Peavy. In Burnett's past deal, he could opt out after so many years. Give that to him again or give him that fifth year as a player option - maybe even an evergreen clause. I get it, he's injury prone - but he seems to turn it up a notch when he's approaching free agency so this deal could potentially make him a better player in theory.

If the Braves signed Burnett, it could potentially make Towers panic and accept our previous Escobar, Gorkys, Morton or Reyes, Boyer or Low-A prospect package - or even less. That would allow us to pursue Furcal even harder - a health risk still too enticing not to take. If these scenarios happen and the dominoes continue to fall, we could still trade Kelly Johnson for Ryan Ludwick - assuming that's a real option - since we wouldn't be downgrading at both middle infield positions anymore.. So there you have it, we've upgraded at short, acquired our two starting pitchers and outfield bat, spent around $40 million - our budget, and got the leadoff hitter we've been missing since Furcal left.

Braves Offseason Wish List

beeniez — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 17:48:09 -0000

The Braves have three definite positions that they need to fill for next year in order to contend - two starting pitchers and a power outfield bat. Some of these names are floating around as possible rumors that the Braves will acquire, some are just me thinking outside the box. I listed them according to how much I want them, think they'd help, and the likelihood of the Braves acquiring them.

1. Jake Peavy RHP - San Diego Padres - 4 years/$60 million (~$15 million per year) Jake Peavy has to be number one on the list. However, where he makes up in his team friendly contract, he lacks in the amount of prospects it'll take to acquire him. The Padres aren't necessarily looking to trade him, so they can ask for the moon. The A's recieved 6 prospects for Dan Haren, but Dan Haren doesn't cost nearly that much in salary. I think 5 prospects, centered around Jordan Schafer and Tommy Hanson probably, will likely be the price. Acquiring him will allow us to explore the free agent still, but might cost us the resources to get our left fielder.

2. CC Sabathia LHP - Free Agent - ~6 years/$140 million (~$23 million per year) Another, "who wouldn't want this guy on their team?" pitcher. He's a free agent and our pick is protected next year, so we won't lose any prospects. However, he's going to cost a buttload with a huge commitment. I estimated he'd be looking for at least Johan Santana money. If we somehow win the bidding war, the second starting pitcher to be acquired won't be anything to write home about. However, he's the kind of guy you build a pitching staff around.

3. Ben Sheets RHP - Free Agent - ~5 years/$90 million (~$18 million per year) The talent has always been there, but his constant health concerns will cost him in years and money. However, he's *still* not going to come cheap - I guess that's the case with all the free agents. It might be doubtful he'll reach the free market, some rumors say he wants to stay in Milwaukee. If the Braves make a serious push at Sabathia and lose, I expect them to sign Sheets. He's a little scary to sign, but I think whatever team that signs him will be pleased. Plus, he won't get to strike us out 18 times once a year anymore.

4. Ryan Dempster RHP - Free Agent - ~4 years/$70 million ($17.5 million per year) As with Sheets, the Cubs are making it their biggest priority to resign Dempster. It's unlikely he'll reach the free market, but if he does, I suspect the Braves to make a huge push for him. The only concern I have with him is that other starters on this list have had multiple good years with 200+ innings pitched. This is his first dominant performance, and he timed it well in his walk year. I don't think he's flukey, I'm just not sure how he'll hold up after several years of starting.

5. Matt Cain RHP - San Francisco Giants - 2 years/$6.9 million with $6.25 club option for '11. With the Giants offensive struggles, it could make sense to trade from their starting depth to acquire a package of offensive prospects. They're looking to win in the next year or so, so Jason Heyward probably doesn't make much sense for them. His contract is *very* team friendly, so that might cost us an additional prospect. I'll throw some names out there, something around Schafer/K. Johnson/Lillibridge/Flowers.

6. Derek Lowe RHP - Free Agent - ~4 years/$68 million (~$17 million per year) He seems like the best fit for the Braves. If I were a betting man, I'd put money on him to be in a Braves uniform next year. However, the Braves won't be the only one bidding for his services. He's a little on the old side, but still might require a deal that will bring him to 40. He's also not the most dominant, but still a solid #2 healthy innings eater. He seems like the best bang for your buck, plus allows the Braves to continue shopping in free agency and trades without much restraint.

7. Roy Oswalt RHP - Houston Astros - 3 years/$45 million (~$15 million per year) O'Brien of AJC brought up this rumor. It's an interesting idea, and I'd love to see him in a Braves uniform. However, teams that think they can contend usually don't trade their aces. It'll cost a bounty in prospects to get him if he's even available - I'd rather them spend it on Peavy, but he's still affordable, acelike, and saves some money on the free agency front.

8. Jon Garland RHP - Free Agent - ~4 years/~$56 million (~$14 million per year) A lot of people are scared off by his lack of strikeouts and league average ERA. However, his ERA might decrease with a move to the National League and his lack of strikeouts is a moot point. If he had had only one good year, I'd agree that he's doomed to be unsuccessful, but he's been successful for 8+ years in the Majors without strikeouts. He could potentially be affordable, but several teams will go after him and he's young, so he might require a contract north of 4 years.

9. Magglio Ordonez OF RH - Detroit Tigers - 1 year/$18 million with club option for '10-'11 at $15 million per year Most of my top guys are pitchers because that's where I think the Braves should put their main focus. They need to acquire at minimum one of those above players. However, if they do acquire an outfielder, I'd want it to be Magglio. He doesn't have the huge power numbers of Dunn or Burrell, but he walks a ton and hits for a high average with consistent 25 home run power. The Tigers are rumored to shed payroll this offseason, and the Braves might be one of the few teams that will take on most of the contract. That said, I don't expect to give up a huge bounty for him and *none* of our top prospects since they're being forced to shed payroll with a very limited market for him. I like the short contract and the price of prospects it could take to acquire him.

10. Manny Rameriz RH OF - Free Agent - ~4 years/$80 million (~$20 million per year) Manny has the production that I'd want out of our leftfielder. He's the definitive power bat that the Braves could use to solidify a potent lineup. However, his contract is not going to be team friendly. He's looking for one last big contract, and he'll likely get it. Bonds signed for 5 years at age 38 - so four years might even be conservative for the 36 year old. As much as I'd love to see him, I don't think the Braves want to spend most of their money on leftfield, nor potentially block some of their outfield prospects. However, if they find two starters relatively cheap and he's looking for a three year deal, I could see it happening.

11. Ian Snell RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates - 2 years/$7.25 with club options for '11-'12 at $6.75 million and $9.25 million respectively Snell did not have the year that many expected. However, I think the potential is still there and the Braves could potentially buy low. He won't cost any of our top prospects, but the Pirates may hold out and wait for him to rebuild his value like they did for Jason Bay. I think he could be a solid number three for the Braves, with potential to be a stud with a change of scenery.

12. Randy Wolf LHP - Free Agent - ~4 years/~$40 million (~$10 million per year) Gone are the days of his cheap one year deals, because he's talking like he wants a big contract. He'd be very affordable and you can reasonably expect league average production out of him. He won't cost us any prospects, probably the cheapest decent free agent starter. I'm still kind of "ehhh" about him, but the Braves might make a big push for him.

13. Pat Burrell OF RH - Free Agent - ~4 years/~$60 million (~$15 million per year year) Along with Manny and Dunn, I don't think we're going to find our leftfielder on the free agent market. I don't think the Braves will have a problem with the amount of money, but the years. They don't want to block Heyward and/or Gorkys. He'd be nice on a 2 or 3 deal, but there should be several teams out there willing to give him 4+.

14. A.J. Burnett RHP - Free Agent - ~6 years/~$110 million (~$18 million per year) I think Burnett scares me the most about which starter the Braves might acquire. I really don't like the idea of signing him to somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 years and $110 million - he just hasn't been consistent and healthy enough for me. It has a serious risk of looking like a terrible contact in possibly the first year.

15. Adam Dunn LH OF - Free Agent - ~4 years/$72 million (~$18 million per year) I have mixed feelings about Dunn. While every fan wants him on their team, it doesn't seem like many teams actually want him. It makes me wonder what they know that we don't - maybe he really doesn't have his heart set on baseball, who knows. If he could be brought down to a 3 year deal - I'd say do it. However, if someone is going to base his contract around the one Carlos Lee received, it could be ~6 years/~$100 million - I just don't think there will be a big enough market for him to do that.

16. Scott Olsen LHP - Florida Marlins - 3 years/Arbitration eligible The Marlins might be looking to shed contract, so Olsen might be available since he's arbitration eligible. I was kind of surprised when I looked up his stats, he had a pretty good year in 2008 and 2006. He'd be cheap and probably wouldn't cost us a top prospect. The Marlins aren't shy about dealing within the division, so I don't think that'd be a problem with them.

17. Josh Willingham RH OF - Florida Marlins - 3 years/Arbitration eligible I was actually surprised when I looked up Willingham's stats, too. He has some good power numbers and could potentially come cheap as well. The Braves could might could pull of a trade for both Olsen and Willingham, but that might cost a top prospect. They'd both be cheap and it could potentially be the same package they'd give up for one elite player. With the savings in prospects and cash, they might could still pull off an additional two starting pitchers and maybe even a legitimate centerfielder (Randy Winn?). However, knowing the Marlins, they'd still ask for the moon. It could be the poor man's six-prospects-for-Cabrera/Willis deal.

18. Ryan Howard LH 1B - Philadelphia Phillies - 3 years/~$50 million (~$16.5 million per year) Okay, here is where I lose credibility. I know, it's a huge outside shot - but hear me out. As Howard goes through arbitration, he's going to earn a ton of money the Phillies are rumored to not want to spend on him. With most big market teams having their first basemen needs already filled, the market for him could be very limited. I'm thinking something along the lines of the Kevin Millwood trade, but I don't think we'd get a huge bargain in terms of prospects like they did - but if the Phillies are serious about trading him - Atlanta could be a fit and willing to take on the payroll. Kotchman could be traded or stuck in left field. Don't bash me for this, it's not to be taken completely serious - just an idea.

19. Matt Kemp RH OF - Los Angelos Dodgers - 4 years/Arbitration eligible Honestly, it doesn't really make much sense. There are a lot of rumors out there, mostly by Yankee fans, that Kemp could be traded. I don't really see it, but if the Dodgers do decide to trade him, I'd hope the Braves would make a push for him. He's under team control for another 4 years, so the Braves could potentially trade him off for a huge bounty a year before he hits free agency and bring up a top prospect (looking at you, Heyward) or just let him walk. He might require a tasty four or five packaged deal, probably centered around Hanson.

20. Andre Ethier LH OF - Los Angelos Dodgers - 4 years/Abitration eligible He's not really a good fit, since the Dodgers don't really have any reason to trade him - contending teams don't usually trade productive cheap players, and he's not a power hitter. However, I'm a big Ethier fan and would love to see him in a Braves uniform. If the Dodgers *were* to clear up their logjam in the outfield, I'd suspect Ethier would be the easiest to trade since many teams would love to have him, he's affordable, and not entirely irreplaceable production-wise. However, he doesn't the power (yet) the Braves want, but he certainly has the average and on-base.

That's my top-20 list. I probably left out a huge obvious name, but oh well. There are a few players I left out on purpose though, Jason Bay and Zach Grienke for instance. Boston is looking to contend next year and they have the means to resign him to a long-term deal. Grienke is the type of pitcher that teams like the Royals trade for, not trade away. Plus, with his contract only having two more years left, it might not be long enough for the Braves to give up a significant haul of prospects for, again. There are plenty of other options where they could have much longer for the same amount. Oh, and Oliver Perez. Dear God, please don't let the Braves sign Oliver Perez.

In my personal opinion, I think we should stay away from long expensive contracts (Like Sabathia, Burnett, Burrell, Rameriz might require) - it gives us better options down the road if it doesn't work out. Acquiring three star players to fit those three needs will definitely let us contend next year, but that's going be very tricky without having any long and expensive contracts. After the amount of injuries we had, I'd rather go after quantity than rely on just three players. But, with the amount of resources and options, there's almost an infinite amount of combinations that'd I'd be happy with.

Also, I like our chances of acquiring top talent on the free market. I don't think the big market teams are looking for that much starting pitching, or at least to give out huge contracts for those starters. The Red Sox don't seem like they'll be getting in a bidding war, the Yankees are doubtful to give a huge contract to both Teixeira and Sabathia, the Mets have other needs besides starting to fulfill first, the Angels don't need any starting pitching and will be more focused on Teixeira, and not that many other teams are looking to dish out big contracts. I like our position heading into the offseason, it should be an exciting one.

The Offseason

beeniez — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 17:57:54 -0000

Let's look at our current outlook for 2009 so we can evaluate what we need to do to improve it. I'm going off the assumption that we do not resign Mark Kotsay.

LF L Gregor Blanco/R Matt Diaz
SS R Yunel Escobar
1B L Casey Kotchman
3B S Chipper Jones
C L Brian McCann
RF R Jeff Francoeur
2B L Kelly Johnson
CF L Jordan Schafer

The first thing that jumps out at me is this lineup might be susceptible to left-handed pitching. And for some weird reason, we face an s-load more left-handers than everyone else. I don't exactly hate this lineup, but I don't really like it either.

There is much power beyond Chipper and McCann, and it's a little overly left-handed. Leftfield and centerfield could use obvious upgrades, so a power hitting right-handed outfielder for the next two seasons needs to be on the Braves shopping list. I think power is the first thing that the Braves need, for them to be right-handed isn't really a need, and it would be our benefit that they're just a stop gap. Here are the candidates in free agency.

LF R Pat Burrell
LF L Adam Dunn
RF R Vladimir Guerrero (has a team option)
LF R Manny Rameriz
LF L Raul Ibanez

I think the best fit for our lineup would be Pat Burrell. He's making $14 million a year this year and would probably be seeking a slight raise. The Phillies are obviously going to try to resign him, but he's making close to what I believe is his current value, so he wouldn't be seeking a big enough raise that they couldn't necessarily afford. It would probably come down to years - next year he'll be 33. Obviously, it will probably take a 4-5 year deal somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million per year. I like Pat Burrell for the 2009-2010 season, but I'm not sure how we'd feel about him at 36-37, possibly blocking one of our premier outfield prospects.

Dunn could be a good fit, since there isn't much interest in him. He probably could be had on a short term contract, albeit probably overpaid. His $13 million option almost wasn't excercised, so he probably makes what he should be making - if not a little overpaid. If he can be had at 2 years/$28 million, I'd say do it.

The only other good fit on that list would be Raul Ibanez. Next season, he'll be 37. He's declined the past three seasons and he's getting older, so obviously a one year contract might do. He's making $5.5 million this year, which is underpaid, so he might want to make up for those productive years he wasn't paid that much. I'm guesstimating again here, but I'd say he's looking for a one year deal close to $10 million. Again, in past years, I would say no to that but witht he amount of money we'll have, I say go for it. If he has a productive season, we might be able to get some draft picks out of it.

Out of that group, I think Dunn makes the most sense for the Braves.

I'm going on the assumption that Tom Glavine and Smoltz will be brought back on very cheap, team friendly deals and Tim Hudson is missing the 2009 season.

SP R Jair Jurrjens
SP L Jo-Jo Reyes
SP R Jorge Campillo
SP R Charlie Morton
SP L/R Tom Glavine/John Smoltz (Maybe their production combined will equal one starter)

Well, this obviously needs a lot of upgrading. Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo are my only locks. We need a frontline starter and a middle of the rotation guy. Need. Here are our free agent options:

SP R A.J. Burnett (may opt out of contract)
SP R Paul Byrd
SP R Jon Garland
SP R Derek Lowe
SP R Mike Mussina
SP L Oliver Perez
SP CC Sabathia
SP R Ben Sheets
SP L Randy Wolf

We thankfully have a semi-deep pitching free agency pool this year, well at least deeper than the outfield pool. We need at least two starters for next season, and not backend of the rotation either - we have plenty of those.

The biggest and best fit is CC Sabathia. I'm a big fan of him, despite his size being risky for later on in his contract. I think he'd be a great fit in Atlanta, giving us the ace we truly need. We have the money to afford him. He's going to be seeking quite the hefty contract, somewhere in the neighborhood of $18-20 million per year, for about 6-7 years - and he'll likely get it. We can use all that money we saved up for Teixeira to sign Sabathia and we'd likely get a better return.

Burnett will likely opt out, but I just don't like him. He's not a likeable guy. Plus, that's a bad contract for someone waiting to happen - he's injury prone. Speaking of bad contracts waiting to happen, Oliver Perez would be on my "no" list. He sounds valuable, young left handed power pitcher, but he's a freakin' headcase. Randy Wolf could be a cheap one or two year deal, but I don't think he likes the East Coast.

Jon Garland is very attractive as well. A lot of people don't like his lack of strikeouts and WHIP, but I think he's been around long enough to prove that he's not a fluke. He's a solid #2 starter who could eat a lot of innings.

Sheets is injury prone, but still very attractive. His past might make him a little cheaper than he should be. Stealing the Brewer's 1-2 punch would be an awesome offseason, but I don't know how realistic that is to do. That's a lot of outbidding.

That said, I think we should outbid everyone for a frontline pitcher and then pick up someone like Derek Lowe for a year or two to round it out until our younger pitching really develops. The frontline starter we need for a long time, so a long contract is fine - it's what we want.

Best case scenario:
SP L CC Sabatha
SP R Ben Sheets/R Jon Garland
SP R Tim Hudson
SP R Jair Jurrjens
SP Tom Glavine/R John Smoltz/R Jorge Campillo/L Jo-Jo Reyes

I just pooped a little looking at that. That obviously can't be what we expect, but I'd love Wren forever if he pulled that off - he could then do no wrong.

That's what we can do in the free agency market. The trade market is a little trickier, since everyone wants to contend for next season and people just don't trade their frontline starters for no elite prospects - which a lot of you can't stand the thought of doing. I think we should still pull off a huge trade (this time for a non-Scott Boras free agent). I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Braves will need a window of negotiations before they make another big trade.

I think the Braves should look for a true leadoff hitter, a power hitting outfielder, and a starting pitching for next season on the trade market. A leadoff hitter has been sorely lacked by the Braves offense since the days of Furcal - it could really bring some consistency to the lineup. I love Blanco and all - but he's a fourth outfielder/borderline starter.

LF R Jason Bay
OF L Carl Crawford (he's about to start getting a raise the cost-conscious Rays might not to pay since he's no longer the face of the franchise)
OF S Randy Winn
OF L David DeJesus
SP R Justin Duchscherer

I can't think of many starting pitchers that might be on the trade market and worth the Braves time. I think they'll have to stick to position players if they want to make a significant trade.

Jason Bay with a negotiation window would be the perfect fit of everything. But trade talks are apparently "dead" about that topic. Carl Crawford would give us our leadoff guy, but it'll also take a fortune in prospects.

I think the best fit would be Randy Winn for centerfield. He'd be a nice affordable leadoff man for the 2009 season and he'd gain us some draft picks when he left. He wouldn't take a lot of prospects to trade for and we could definitely keep our elite ones. He's only under contract for next year, so he wouldn't be blocking anyone. Winn switch hits with speed and gap power. He'd be a good pickup for us next season, playing left and/or center.

Trading Possibilities

beeniez — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 18:56:09 -0000

Albert Einstein said that the definition of insanity is doing the samething over and over and expecting different results. That's exactly why the Braves need to make changes. They need to trade for something. They need to trade for the future and to win-now at the sametime. Here's a few trades that hopefully make sense. I'll start with the biggest and best.

1. Last year, the Marlins and Tigers matched up for a blockbuster 6-for-2 deal. It cost the Tigers one top position prospect, one top pitching prospect, one major league ready backup catcher/borderline starter, one fireball reliever, one low-level pitching prospect, and one older projectable pitching prospect. The Marlins gave up one of the best young hitters in the game with a middle-to-top of the rotation starter. I believe the Braves have those prospects and then some to complete a trade of that caliber and recieve a great hitter and another starter in return.

The Braves need to model a package after that trade and trade for Jason Bay and Ian Snell of the Pirates. It would likely cost us something along the lines of Jordan Schafer, Tommy Hanson, Clint Sammons, Manny Acosta, Kris Medlen, and Todd Redmond. Probably would either need to replace with a higher prospect or tack on another player. We'd obviously be giving up a lot, but so would the Pirates.

Jason Bay is a huge piece that the Braves sorely need on offense. He's a right hander that walks a lot, decent average, and hits for power. He's signed through this year and next rather cheaply. He'd probably be a lot easier to resign than Teixeira and more willing to sign an extension early. The Braves will have the money, could use a right-hander to bat cleanup between Chipper and Mac, and need the consistency. Gaining Bay would also make losing Teixeira a lot more tolerable.

Ian Snell is a little bit trickier. He's had a bit of a down year but aside from a few blowout starts, he's been pretty good. He has top of the rotation stuff and is signed cheaply through 2011. I think he just needs a change of scenery to be honest with you. The Braves have tried to trade for him in the past but with no luck. His down year might make him more available, but at the sametime could make him not available, so they can sell higher later. However, if they include him, it would give the Braves a solid rotation for many years headlined by Hudson, Jurrjens, Snell, and Jo-Jo. Since they are young and under contract for awhile, it makes a lot of the Braves starting depth in the minors blocked and expendable.

Schafer would obviously be tough to part with, but with Bay and Francoeur cemented in the outfield for awhile, that leaves only one spot. With Gorkys Hernandez quickly developing right behind Schafer, it makes one of them available. One of the best parts of this trade is that they don't have to part with Jason Heyward, who I believe is truly "untouchable."

Outcome for the Braves: So, for the sake of argument, let's say the trade goes through. Bay obviously replaces the Blanco/Diaz platoon. Blanco is the more attractive fourth outfielder and we could potentially keep Diaz as a last-resort filler for Teixeira at first next year. Maybe shifting him to first would be wise given his current knee problems. There's a lot of options they can do with Diaz if they make the trade. Snell would replace Morton, allowing him to develop in the minors more.

Longshot possibility: The Braves could tack on even more prospects and make it a 8-3 deal, asking the Pirates to include top firstbase prospect Steven Pearce. It would give the Braves their firstbaseman of the future, allowing the Braves to trade or allow Teixeira to leave. We could let Teixeira and Ohman leave for the draft picks, helping replenish what the Braves gave up.

The Braves would be giving up a ton, but at the sametime wouldn't kill their minor league system, wouldn't need to use its depth for trades again for awhile, and would improve the Braves. We'd probably have to add something like Lillibridge and Charlie Morton. Lillibridge-Morton-Hanson-Schafer-Sammons-Acosta-Medlen-Redmond for Bay-Snell-Pearce. But with the immediate production, higher chances of making the playoffs, low contracts, draft picks at the end of the year, and making Teixeira leaving tolerable, it wouldn't be that bad of a trade.

2. Mark Teixeira for Kevin Youkillis and Craig Hansen of the Red Sox. The Red Sox reportedly turned this trade down. I don't think it wasn't that they didn't want to do it, it just wasn't the right time for them. The Red Sox would probably want to see how David Ortiz heals before making a trade. It'll probably be one of those last-minute trades if it does happen since the Braves are also waiting on what to do with Teixeira.

Outcome for the Braves: It would decrease their production for rest of the year, but it give them a solid first baseman for the future and a potential closer.

Longshot possibility: The Braves could add Ohman to the deal, but the Braves would probably want an additional two players since Ohman has the possibility of being a type A free agent making it a 4-2 deal.

3. Mark Teixeira and Will Ohman for Casey Kotchman and Nick Adenhart of the Angels. Not exactly the greatest first baseman, but Kotchman is serviceable, under contract, and Major League ready. Adenhart could be very good in the future and probably better than anything we'd get in the draft. It might not help the Braves win this year, but we can't exactly expect that to happen when you trade off Mark Teixeira and Will Ohman anyways.

Outcome for the Braves: It solves the firstbase problem and gives the Braves a great pitching prospect. It also saves them some money for any potential signings in the future.