SB Nation User Blog: bellar

CBS has D'Qwell ready to breakout

bellar — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 17:08:42 -0000

There is nothing sexy about making an offensive tackle the NFL's biggest breakout player in 2008, especially when you consider my admiration for quarterbacks and the passing game.


Stacy Andrews could become a key to Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson. (AP)

Then again, Stacy Andrews of the Cincinnati Bengals has a chance to be a special kind of player. He's no ordinary fifth-year offensive lineman, even though he has just 17 career starts.

Andrews, who filled in for veteran Willie Anderson when Anderson was out with an injury in 2007, has developed a heck of a reputation despite his inexperience. The Bengals thought enough of him to place the franchise tag on him before the start of free agency to keep him off the market.

From backup one year to $7.5 million in base salary the next is quite a leap, which speaks volumes about Andrews' potential.

Andrews, the brother of Philadelphia Eagles' Pro Bowl guard Shawn Andrews, came into the league in 2004 as a raw fourth-round pick known more for his ability to compete in track and field then on the football field. In four seasons, he has become a physical force who plays with a mean streak like his brother.

The right tackle spot doesn't get the glamour of the left tackle position, but Andrews might help change that. He is a drive-blocking, power player who should help spring Rudi Johnson for big numbers this season.

Andrews can still become an unrestricted free agent after the season if the Bengals don't give him a long-term deal. They would be wise to try to work something out before the end of the coming season. They have until July 15 to do something or he will play for the franchise tender he signed.

You can bet if they don't do something he'll be one of the top free agents in 2009. For now, he's the top guy on my list of potential breakout players:

1. Stacy Andrews, T, Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals did the wise thing and designated Andrews their franchise player after the 2007 season. He went into that season as a backup, but injuries gave him 13 starts. He now goes into this season listed as the starting right tackle, ahead of 13-year veteran Willie Anderson. By season's end, he just might be the best right tackle in the AFC.

2. Haloti Ngata, DE, Baltimore Ravens: Playing on a front seven loaded with really good players, Ngata tends to get overlooked. That won't happen this season. In his second season in 2007 he started to flash star potential. This is the season it happens a lot. He is strong and quick.

3. Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets: He showed off smooth man-cover skills as a rookie last season. The Jets traded up to get him in the 2007 draft and he showed why. Revis might be ready to head to the Pro Bowl in his second season.

4. Justin Durant, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars: He started eight games as a rookie last season and showed explosive speed. In Gregg Williams' attacking defense, Durant should show up even more. He's a future Pro Bowl player.

5. Antrel Rolle, S, Arizona Cardinals: The scouts all said Rolle didn't have the hips to play corner. So even though he made some big plays last season -- including two picks for scores in one game -- Rolle moves to free safety this season. Look for Rolle to be much more of a fit at safety. He is a playmaker who will complement Adrian Wilson well.

6. John McCargo, DT, Buffalo Bills: After a disappointing rookie season in 2006, cut short by injury, McCargo played much better in 2007. He had 2½ sacks, led the Bills with 6½ stops behind the line of scrimmage and now appears ready to do even more in his third season. The addition of former Jaguars defensive tackle Marcus Stroud to play next to him will help McCargo improve even more.

7. Matt Leinart, QB, Arizona Cardinals: His second season was cut short in 2008 when he suffered a broken collarbone in the fifth game. That led to Kurt Warner taking over and playing well. But Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt is going back to Leinart, which is the right move. Leinart can be the Cardinals' franchise passer and this is the season he proves that to the many skeptics.

8. LaMarr Woodley, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers: As a rookie in 2007, Woodley didn't start any games but still had four sacks. Late in the season he started showing off his pass-rush ability. With Clark Haggans gone to Arizona, Woodley will start and don't be shocked to see a 12-sack season.

9. Anthony Spencer, DE, Dallas Cowboys: Greg Ellis, who holds the spot Spencer wants, isn't happy because Spencer received first-team reps during offseason work. Ellis should worry about his job. Spencer has the explosive speed off the edge that will be hard to keep on the bench. He will be a long-time companion for DeMarcus Ware.


Cleveland's D'Qwell Jackson will become an even bigger hit. (Getty Images)

10. David Harris, LB, New York Jets: He started nine times last season and was a tackling machine in those games. He is an active linebacker who knows how to get to the football. He had 125 tackles in 2007. That number will jump significantly in 2008.

11. Chris Gocong, OLB, Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles were thrilled with the way he played as a first-time starter in 2007. He has the speed to match up with tight ends in coverage and he plays the run well. Having a player with Gocong's versatility in Jim Johnson's defense is a big plus.

12. D'Qwell Jackson, LB, Cleveland Browns: He has been a quality player the past two seasons but most fans outside Cleveland probably have no idea who he is. At 6-feet, 242 pounds, he is a thumper at weak-side linebacker. He also runs well.

13. Eric Winston, RT, Houston Texans: The right tackle spot isn't a strong one in the NFL. Winston has a chance to move toward the top of the rankings at that position. He emerged as the Texans' best lineman last season. He has always been a good pass protector, but he improved his run blocking last season. It's too bad right tackles get overlooked come Pro Bowl time because he's a good one.

14. Steve Smith, WR, New York Giants: After missing 11 games in his rookie season with an injury, Smith had 14 catches in the postseason to emerge as an important part of the Giants' run to the Super Bowl. Watch for him to become a factor in the middle of the field for the Giants' offense in 2008, possibly catching as many as 60 passes.

15. Fred Bennett, CB, Houston Texans: A fourth-round pick last April, Bennett made his way into the starting lineup in 2007 and had three interceptions and 14 passes defensed. With Dunta Robinson coming off a major knee injury, Bennett will have to be even better in 2008.

16. Eric Weddle, S, San Diego Chargers: The Chargers traded up in last year's draft to get Weddle. After a year playing in sub packages, he takes over as the starting free safety. Weddle is one of those players with a knack for finding the football. He will hit and he has cover skills after playing corner in college.


Sidney Rice will get a boost from Bernard Berrian. (Getty Images)

17. A.J. Hawk, LB, Green Bay Packers: The Packers expect big things from Hawk in his third season. He showed improvement last season, but needs to play more instinctively. With two years under his belt, look for that to happen.

18. Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: He had 52 catches last season, his second with the team, but watch out in 2008. This could be his Pro Bowl year. It's certainly going to be the season he takes over as the No. 1 guy for Hines Ward.

19. Jovan Haye, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Entering his fifth season, with his second team, Haye is coming off an impressive 2007. He had 16 starts, the first of his career, and had six sacks. At 6-2, 285 pounds, he is a quick inside player who has a chance to be a long-time starter in Tampa.

20. Sidney Rice, WR, Minnesota Vikings: Rice caught 31 passes in 13 games in 2007 as a rookie. With Bernard Berrian now on the other side that number will go up. Rice doesn't have great speed so he needs speed on the other side to help open things up for him. Berrian has that. Look for Rice to possibly have a 70-catch season.

21. Johnny Jolly, DT, Green Bay Packers: He takes over as the starter inside after Corey Williams was traded to the Browns. Jolly showed well in his time last season before he tore a rotator cuff. He's battling back from that, but the Packers expect him on the field when camp opens.

22. Marcus Thomas, DT, Denver Broncos: Thomas played well as a rookie in 2007. Watch what he does this year. He will show off the talent that would have made him a first-round pick, were it not for off-the-field issues before the draft. He has Warren Sapp-like quickness.

23. Freddie Keiaho, LB, Indianapolis Colts: When Cato June left via free agency, the Colts did what they always do: find a quality replacement. Although small at 5-11, 230 pounds, Keiaho is a swift player who knows how to get to the football. With more experience, he will make people forget June.

24. Zach Miller, TE, Oakland Raiders: As a rookie last season he caught 44 passes in an offense that struggled to get good quarterback play. Now that JaMarcus Russell is settled in as the starter look for Miller and Russell to form quite a connection.

25. Arron Sears, G, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs love this kid. He started at left guard as a rookie and quickly showed that he has Pro Bowl ability. He plays with a nasty streak and excels in the run game.


A bust in Minnesota, Troy Williamson tries to give the Jags a needed speed injection. (Getty Images)

26. Troy Williamson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: He was considered a flop in Minnesota after his selection in the first round of the 2005 draft. He had 79 catches in his first three seasons, just 24 in 2007. That's why the Vikings traded him to the Jaguars for a sixth-round pick. During the Jaguars' offseason work, Williamson was outstanding. He didn't drop a pass. If that carries over to camp, his speed will be a big addition to the Jacksonville passing game.

27. Jared Gaither, T, Baltimore Ravens: With the retirement of Jonathan Ogden, Gaither takes over as the starting left tackle. He had two starts last season as a rookie and played pretty well. At 6-9, 350 pounds, he makes Ogden look small. He also has great feet for a man that big. He might struggle at times, but by the midway point he should be a dominant player.

28. Brandon Jackson, RB, Green Bay Packers: I know Ryan Grant is the starter and he played well last season. But Packers coaches really like Jackson. With a year under his belt in terms of picking up blitz packages, he will be on the field more in his second season. He did rush for 113 yards on 20 carries in the season finale after not doing much when he started the first three games of the season.

29. Chad Jackson, WR, New England Patriots: He has had two injury-plagued seasons that have limited him to 13 catches. That should change now that he's healthy. With Donte' Stallworth gone to the Cleveland Browns, the Patriots need a third receiver to step up. Jackson has the size and speed. Now that he's a year-and-half removed from a torn ACL, this is his time.

30. Domata Peko, DT, Cincinnati Bengals: He has been a quality starter the past two seasons. For that, the Bengals rewarded him with a long-term deal. Peko plays hard and he's very good against the run.

Predict the AFC North for yourself

bellar — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 02:39:03 -0000

2008 AFC North Preview Big Browns win; Gap between top and bottom two widens By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com June 11th 2008

We will preview an NFL division each day for eight days, before presenting final standings, fantasy and statistical leaders, award winners, playoff results and power rankings. This analysis is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com's Fantasy Football.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 8, 2008. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Cleveland Browns (10-6)
The team definitely improved its roster in the off-season. A brutal schedule should give the Browns about the same record as last year, but now it is good enough for the division championship, Cleveland's first since 1989. The Browns average 25.8 points per game (#6 in the NFL) and allow 21.5 points (#11) against a schedule featuring eight games against 2007 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 12-4

Most Significant Newcomer: Corey Williams, DL - The former Packer will likely lineup at end with newly acquired Shaun Rogers in the middle. Williams has an all-around game that is adept at stuffing the run and sacking the quarterback. He's a perfect 3-4 end. The season simulation gives Williams 41 total tackles and eight sacks.
Biggest Strength: Passing Game - Left tackle Joe Thomas helps to keep Derek Anderson upright long enough to hit play-making targets like Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Donte' Stallworth.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Depth - All three of those playmakers have histories with injuries (and attitude). The cupboard is pretty bare behind them, so the passing game could quickly become a weakness if one of them goes down. The same could be said for just about every position on the team, especially at running back where an aging Jamal Lewis appears to be the only NFL-caliber back on the roster.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Eric Wright, CB - It's rare to go defensive player, but the offense is so star-driven that there are no sleepers there. Wright is a second-year corner out of UNLV who made 76 tackles last season. For 2008, we put him at 86 tackles and three interceptions.

Closest Game: @ Philadelphia (Week 15) - Hosting Pittsburgh in Week 2 and at Philly in December are two big swing games for this Browns team. If Cleveland is intent on contending this year and for years to come, it will need to play its best in games like these.

Fantasy Notables (fantasy rank at position in parentheses): Derek Anderson (5) 3,853 yards, 27 TDs, 15 INTs; Jamal Lewis (11) 1,488 total yards, 14 TDs; Braylon Edwards (2) 95 receptions, 1,400 yards, 9 TDs; Donte' Stallworth (50) 42 receptions, 640 yards, 5 TDs; Kellen Winslow II (2) 87 receptions, 1,035 yards, 7 TDs; Phil Dawson (19) 45/45 XPs, 25/30 FGs

Projected 2008 Results:

Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Dallas Cowboys	41	22-24
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	51	24-18
3	@Baltimore Ravens	74	28-21
4	@Cincinnati Bengals	81	29-22
6	New York Giants	35	22-25
7	@Washington Redskins	63	26-23
8	@Jacksonville Jaguars	57	22-22
9	Baltimore Ravens	76	28-16
10	Denver Broncos	74	32-19
11	@Buffalo Bills	65	28-25
12	Houston Texans	75	30-19
13	Indianapolis Colts	45	25-27
14	@Tennessee Titans	68	22-17
15	@Philadelphia Eagles	51	21-20
16	Cincinnati Bengals	81	32-16
17	@Pittsburgh Steelers	42	20-28

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
It is not a bad season for the Steelers; they just do not quite make the playoffs. Pittsburgh actually has a fairly explosive offense for 2008, but the defense is not what it has been. The schedule is tough, and the Browns are just a little better. The Steelers average 24.7 points per game (#13) and allow 23.2 points (#17) against a schedule featuring eight games against 2007 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 10-6 - This would suggest that the team is actually better than the Buffalo Bills, which get a Wild Card due to a higher number of non-rounded expected wins, despite also rounding to a 9-7 record.

Most Significant Newcomer: Rashard Mendenhall, RB - This may not be a big breakout year for Mendenhall, but he looks like a future All-Pro and could still be an electric back as a sub and goalline specialist for Willie Parker. This analysis expects Mendenhall to total 1,008 yards from scrimmage and score 10 touchdowns.

Biggest Strength: Running Offense - Alan Faneca may be gone, but this team just added one of the most NFL-ready backs to come out of the draft in years to an attack that finished third in the NFL in rushing in 2007. Receiving deep threat Limas Sweed should also come in and help Santonio Holmes to keep defenses honest.

Most Exploitable Weakness: The Schedule - Again, this is neither a bad team, nor a bad year. It is just a bad schedule (for the Steelers and their fans at least). For a team that won its division in a year when no other team from the division made the playoffs to have to play eight games against playoff opponents from the previous year is astounding. The AFC North plays a round-robin with both divisions in the league that placed three teams in the playoffs in 2007. Adding the Patriots and Chargers to the mix is torturous.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Santonio Holmes, WR - Everyone knows who he is, but this, his third season, should be the year that Holmes becomes one of fantasy football's elite receivers. Hines Ward will likely be limited again by age and nagging leg injuries, so Holmes needs to step up. We have him as the 13th best receiver with 65 receptions, 1,091 yards receiving and seven touchdowns.

Closest Game: @ Cleveland (Week 2) - Referenced in the Browns' write-up above, this could be the game that decides the AFC North crown - and it happens in September.

Fantasy Notables: Ben Roethlisberger (8) 3,455 yards, 23 TDs, 10 INTs; Willie Parker (13) 1,500 total yards, 12 TDs; Rashard Mendenhall (33) 1,008 total yards, 10 TDs; Santonio Holmes (13) 65 receptions, 1,091 yards, 7 TDs; Hines Ward (45) 64 receptions, 738 yards, 5 TDs; Heath Miller (9) 52 receptions, 613 yards, 4 TDs; Jeff Reed (11) 42/42 XPs, 26/34 FGs

Projected 2008 Results:

Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Houston Texans	69	27-15
2	@Cleveland Browns	49	18-24
3	@Philadelphia Eagles	54	24-23
4	Baltimore Ravens	71	29-17
5	@Jacksonville Jaguars	42	21-30
7	@Cincinnati Bengals	67	28-25
8	New York Giants	37	22-25
9	@Washington Redskins	55	22-22
10	Indianapolis Colts	33	25-28
11	San Diego Chargers	52	27-21
12	Cincinnati Bengals	66	30-19
13	@New England Patriots	29	21-33
14	Dallas Cowboys	37	24-28
15	@Baltimore Ravens	62	25-21
16	@Tennessee Titans	68	23-20
17	Cleveland Browns	58	28-20

Baltimore Ravens (5-11)
The 2008 version of the Baltimore Ravens is almost exactly the same team that took the field in 2007. They went 5-11 in 2007 - and this is not a team that is "developing." They are simply getting older. The Ravens average 20.0 points per game (#28) and allow 27.2 points (#26) against a schedule featuring eight games against 2007 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 2-14

Most Significant Newcomer: Ray Rice, RB - The former Rutgers standout is a potential workhorse back who can also catch the ball out of the backfield. Willis McGahee needs protection. Ready or not, Rice should be that guy in 2008. In the simulated season, Rice totals 394 yards and scores four touchdowns.

Biggest Strength: Name Recognition - This defense, with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Bart Scott, Trevor Pryce, Kelly Gregg, Terrell Suggs (probably) and others, sounds much better than it is. We will count that as a strength though, because the defense obviously has plenty of experience and good football IQ. It could easily dominate a few games.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Game - Everyone knows that Joe Flacco is the Ravens' answer for the future of their passing attack, but very few people know what that means for 2008. In this analysis, it means that Flacco, Kyle Boller and Troy Smith combine to throw 20 interceptions, while Derrick Mason watches another year of his career pass by.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Joe Flacco, QB - When he gets a chance to play later in the season, the Ravens will likely be behind often and have to throw the ball. Expect some mistakes, but he is a definite upgrade over Kyle Boller. In nine starts, the sim gives Flacco 2,094 yards, 12 TDs and nine interceptions. That's 3,722 yards, 21 TDs and 16 interceptions over a 16 game season. Sounds like a step in the right direction.

Closest Game: @ Houston (Week 2) - Both of these teams may be looking for their identities all year. A statistical dead heat in winning percentage, the team that prevails may ultimately be the one with the greater future.

Fantasy Notables: Joe Flacco (28) 2,094 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INTs; Willis McGahee (20) 1,456 yards, 11 TDs; Derrick Mason (32) 82 receptions, 870 yards, 6 TDs; Mark Clayton (39) 75 receptions, 832 yards, 4 TDs; Todd Heap (6) 71 receptions, 764 yards, 4 TDs; Matt Stover (22) 34/34 XPs, 26/29 FGs

Projected 2008 Results:

Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Cincinnati Bengals	45	24-26
2	@Houston Texans	50	19-24
3	Cleveland Browns	26	21-28
4	@Pittsburgh Steelers	29	17-29
5	Tennessee Titans	49	20-19
6	@Indianapolis Colts	11	17-35
7	@Miami Dolphins	43	19-28
8	Oakland Raiders	67	29-19
9	@Cleveland Browns	23	16-28
11	@New York Giants	17	16-29
12	Philadelphia Eagles	24	19-26
13	@Cincinnati Bengals	53	27-26
14	Washington Redskins	20	20-28
15	Pittsburgh Steelers	38	21-25
16	@Dallas Cowboys	8	16-40
17	Jacksonville Jaguars	33	20-26

Cincinnati Bengals (5-11)
Off the field issues - not just criminally, but in the locker room, the front office and in scouting - have caught up with this franchise, which has only made the playoffs once in the last 17 years. The truth is, Carson Palmer is capable of leading a team to a deep playoff run, and it may just happen with the Bengals some season; the defense is too inexperienced, and the running game has too many question marks for that season to be 2008. The Bengals average 22.2 points per game (#19) and allow 29.2 points (#31) against a schedule featuring eight games against 2007 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 2-14 - Winning the first and last games of the season.

Most Significant Newcomer: Keith Rivers, LB - If Chad Johnson does not play all year for the Bengals, this could easily be Ben Utecht. For now though, we will highlight Rivers who has been tabbed to lead this defense in the same manner that fellow USC Trojan, Carson Palmer, has led the offense. Rivers will be one of the more productive rookies in 2008 with 109 total tackles and a sack. He and Jerod Mayo of New England should vie for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.

Biggest Strength: Palmer - Carson Palmer seems to have "it." And he could use "it" to the fullest if he gets time in the pocket, has any semblance of a running game and has two or three NFL-caliber, healthy receivers on the field with him at all times.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Defense - One of the worst all-around defenses from 2007 has lost its three most productive players - Justin Smith (DE, SF), Madieu Williams (S, MIN) and Landon Johnson (LB, CAR). It is hard not to pick on the whole unit. Linebackers Rashad Jeanty and Ahmad Brooks have shown some good signs, yet neither can stay on the field. Deltha O'Neal, Dexter Jackson, Dhani Jones and John Thornton are all veterans who have had a good year or two each, but none has really stood out as a consistently, above-average NFL player. So, the defense is in the hands of a bunch of kids like Rivers, Jonathan Joseph, Leon Hall, Robert Geathers and Domata Peko who may or may not be in over their heads.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Ben Utecht, TE - Carson Palmer has rarely used the tight end in Cincinnati, but now the Bengals actually have one who has produced elsewhere. Utecht's numbers are largely contingent on the play of the wide receivers, but he should get at least 31 catches for 366 yards and three TDs (as he does in the simulated season). Rookie WRs Jerome Simpson or Andre Caldwell could be turned to fill Chris Henry and/or Chad Johnson's voids as well. On the flip side, it is wise to stay away from all Cincinnati RBs.

Closest Game: Baltimore (Week 13) - The two bad teams in the AFC North look to split the regular season series. By now, Joe Flacco should be starting for Baltimore, so it will be a better team and a tougher opponent than in Week 1.

Fantasy Notables: Carson Palmer (6) 4,061 yards, 27 TDs, 17 INTs; Rudi Johnson (37) 949 total yards, 6 TDs; T.J. Houshmandzadeh (9) 114 receptions, 1,217 yards, 7 TDs; Chad Johnson (21) 67 receptions, 1,002 yards, 6 TDs; Ben Utecht (21) 31 receptions, 336 yards, 3 TDs; Shayne Graham (18) 38/38 XPs, 26/31 FGs

Projected 2008 Results:

Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	@Baltimore Ravens	55	26-24
2	Tennessee Titans	45	23-24
3	@New York Giants	19	17-32
4	Cleveland Browns	18	22-29
5	@Dallas Cowboys	8	17-39
6	@New York Jets	36	24-32
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	33	25-28
9	Jacksonville Jaguars	35	25-29
10	@Houston Texans	35	23-34
11	Philadelphia Eagles	27	21-26
12	@Pittsburgh Steelers	34	19-30
13	Baltimore Ravens	47	26-27
14	@Indianapolis Colts	15	19-35
15	Washington Redskins	29	22-28
16	@Cleveland Browns	19	16-32
17	Kansas City Chiefs	69	28-17

Click here to view a schedule of 2008 NFL previews and see others that have been posted.

For details on how we generate the results and the definition of the Absolute Record, click here. To hide the details, click here.

For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not (see Super Bowl XLII), our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Today we preview the AFC North.