Here's my mock draft for 2012 using my same weighted rating system from the major draft sights (Huddle Report, PFW, GBN, Draft Countdown). Sadly there's no Gosselin Top 100 this year, so we'll see how well these sites do.

Rnd. - Pick. - Pos. - Name - School
1 - 17 - DT - Michael Brockers - LSU
1 - 21 - CB - Dre Kirkpatrick - Alabama
2 - 53 - WR - Mohamed Sanu - Rutgers
3 - 83 - RB - Bernard Pierce - Temple
4 - 116 - FS - Brandon Hardin - Oregon State
5 - 156 - OG - Brandon Washington - Miami (Fla.)
5 - 166 - SS - Duke Ihenacho - San Jose State
5 - 167 - WR - Greg Childs - Arkansas
6 - 191 - OLB - Braylon Broughton - TCU

This has a slight edge to defense (5 vs 4 picks) and focuses on positions of depth (future need based on contracts and injury history) as well as areas of need. Brockers is a player who can help now but still needs time to be great. Kirkpartrick isn't a match-up nightmare but should do well under Zimmer. Sanu is the perfect compliment to Green. Pierce isn't sexy but has good skills. Hardin is an athletic freak who needs time (see: Mays, Taylor). Washington is another body to throw into the mix at RG. Ihenacho is a good player who will compete for a roster spot. Childs is a boom or bust pick, but is worth a 5th round investment. Broughton played DE at TCU but at 257lbs will make the transition to OLB in the NFL and certainly has the athleticism (4.55-40, 36" VJ and 4.30 shuttle).

I think we need a TE but there are enough that will go undrafted (and almost as good as what we'd use a 6th rounder on that it's not worth it).

Looking forward to tomorrow...

The compensatory picks should be announced within the next week or so and I've put my best guess forward. There is no published formula but based on the prior research (most notably AdamJT13 who hasn't published since March 2011) there are some basic rules: (1) only UFAs signed or lost count, (2) rank is based primarily on contract average but Pro Bowl honors and games started also factor in, (3) there is a minimum contract average to qualify - except when #2 is in effect, and (4) teams are awarded picks only when the number of UFAs signed > lost. "Net Value Picks" are awarded to teams that signed as many UFAs as they lost but the contract amounts were not balanced. The total number of comp picks must equal 32 so if less picks are awarded based on the info above, the difference is awarded based on original draft order (i.e. trades don't count).

Cleveland: 4 (3 comp + 1 "rule of 32")
Green Bay: 4 (4 comp)
Minnesota: 4 (3 comp + 1 "rule of 32")
NY Jets: 3 (3 comp)
Oakland: 3 (3 comp)
Indianapolis: 2 (1 net value + 1 "rule of 32")
NY Giants: 2 (2 comp)
Atlanta: 1 (1 comp)
Baltimore: 1 (1 comp)
Buffalo: 1 (1 net value)
Carolina: 1 (1 comp)
Dallas: 1 (1 comp)
Pittsburgh: 1 (1 comp)
San Diego: 1 (1 net value)
San Francisco: 1 (1 comp)
St. Louis: 1 (1 "rule of 32")
Tampa Bay: 1 (1 "rule of 32")
Washington: 1 (1 "rule of 32")

Here are the projected picks:
Oakland 3.1 Nnamdi Asomugha
Minnesota 3.2 Sidney Rice
Oakland 4.1 Zach Miller
Minnesota 4.2 Ray Edwards
Indianapolis 4.3 Clint Sessions
Dallas 5.1 Stephen Bowen
Green Bay 5.2 Daryn Colledge
Baltimore 5.3 Dawan Landry
Green Bay 5.4 Cullen Jenkins
NY Jets 6.1 Shaun Ellis
NY Giants 6.2 Kevin Boss
NY Giants 6.3 Steve Smith
NY Jets 6.4 Brad Smith
Indianapolis 6.5 Charlie Johnson
Atlanta 6.6 Michael Koenen
Cleveland 6.7 Matt Roth
NY Jets 7.1 Drew Coleman
Oakland 7.2 Thomas Howard
Green Bay 7.3 Brandon Jackson
Pittsburgh 7.4 Matt Spaeth
Green Bay 7.5 Jason Spitz
Cleveland 7.6 Chansi Stuckey
Cleveland 7.7 Lawrence Vickers
Carolina 7.8 Jeff King
San Francisco 7.9 Travis LaBoy
Minnesota 7.10 Ben Leber
Buffalo 7.11 net value
San Diego 7.12 net value
Indianapolis 7.14 rule of 32
St. Louis 7.15 rule of 32
Minnesota 7.16 rule of 32
Cleveland 7.17 rule of 32
Tampa Bay 7.18 rule of 32
Washington 7.18 rule of 32

UPDATED 3/26: Buffalo pick adjusted for removal of Kirk Morrison as qualifying free agent (signed 8/26 which was after the cut-off period). Indy's picks adjusted to remove Kerry Collins (also signed after cut-off date).

UPDATE 3/16/12: Updated for free agent signings. Also, additional $1.6M in cap room from Redskins/Cowboys penalty is now being taken in 2013.

I previously detailed a plan on how to shape our roster for 2012 given our salary cap room. With the cap for 2012 announced at $120.6M and our carryover of $15M and credits of $0.565M, the Bengals have $51.6M in cap room. Here is the tweaked plan with the new information in mind:

Holes on the 2012 roster:
Starters: WR, both OG positions, RB, SLB, FS, K, possibly CB (depending upon Leon Hall's health)
Reserves: WE, both DT positions, DE, CB

Players resigned (with 2012 cap budget and rank amongst position cap):
K Mike Nugent ($2.65M, 13th) designated franchise player
DT Jonathan Fanene ($3.5M, 33rd) signed by NE, 3yrs $4.0M avg, $3.8M guar
DE Frostee Rucker ($3M, 36th) signed by CLE, 5yrs $4.2M avg, $8M guar
SLB Manny Lawson ($3.75M, 45th, low participation and lack of sacks keeps his value low)
FS Reggie Nelson ($4.5M, 15th) resigned 4yrs, $4.5M avg, $4.625M cap hit 2012
TE Donald Lee or Bo Scaife ($0.6M, 32nd, veteran minimum benefit contract)
CB Kelly Jennings or Adam Jones ($2M, 45th) instead signed Jason Allen 2yrs, $8.2M, est $4.25M cap hit 2012
RFAs LB Dan Skuta, LS Clark Harris ($1.26M each); FB Chris Pressley (resigned 2yr deal, cap hit unknown but likely less than $1M)

UFA options (with cap budget and rank amongst position cap):
WR ($4-5M = top 16-25): Robert Meachem (SD, 4yr-$6.48avg-$14SB), Mario Manningham, Pierre Garcon (WAS, 5yr-$8.5Mavg-$13.1SB); cheaper options: Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, Chaz Schilens
RB ($5-6M = top 9-10): Michael Bush, Mike Tolbert; cheaper options: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Tim Hightower
Rotation DE/DT ($3.5-4M = top 30-33): Kendall Langford, Jason Jones, Derek Landri, Gary Gibson, Jamaal Anderson, Andre Fluellen

Players released (cap savings):
S Chris Crocker (-$2M, production has really dropped off)
DE Robert Geathers (-$4.4M, likely keep him due to loss of Rucker and Fanene)
note: LB Keith Rivers' cap value is the same on the team as it would be if he were released, so I don't expect the team to make this move since it paid him his full salary last year despite being classified as NFI (maybe tit-for-tat reworked contract in his future?)

Draft:
1-17 CB Dre Kirkpatrick Alabama (insurance for Leon Hall, sees the field in nickel package with Clements playing slot)
1-21 OG Cordy Glenn Georgia (immediate starter at LG; future RT?)
2-53 SS Harrison Smith Notre Dame (could start opposite Reggie Nelson)
3-84 OG Brandon Brooks Miami (Ohio) (battles with Otis Hudson for RG spot)
4-119 WR Greg Childs Arkansas (fully recovered from knee injury)
5-154 RB Dan Herron Ohio State (joins "RB by committee")
5-165 DE Jack Crawford Penn State
6-194 CB Asa Jackson Cal Poly
7-229 DT Vaughn Meatoga Hawaii
Total rookie cap should be around $6.5M

With the pre-draft signings in place, we would have a Top 51 cap of $112.4M. The $6.5M of draft signings would not add directly to this number since the Top 51 rule still applies. But expect the final cap room to be around $19.1M.

I would expect the team to use some of that remaining space to extend players already under contract. Candidates include OT Andre Smith, LB Thomas Howard, DE Michael Johnson, LB Rey Maualuga, and P Kevin Huber. The team has only 30 players under contract at around $46M leaving the team in nearly the situation as it faces in 2012.

The side benefit of this free agency plan is that the Bengals might again be eligible for a compensatory pick in the 2013 draft. I would expect DT Pat Sims, RB Cedric Benson and OT Anthony Collins to all land qualifying contracts so at minimum we'd gain a net-value 7th round comp pick. Not too exciting but one more chip for the long-term plan.

I previously detailed a plan on how to shape our roster for 2012 given our salary cap room. Now that the team has moved $15M of 2011 cap room into 2012 given us more than $60M of space, it may be time to revisit that plan.

Holes on the 2012 roster:

Starters: WR, both OG positions, RB, SLB, FS, K, possibly CB (depending upon Leon Hall’s health)

Reserves: WE, both DT positions, DE, CB

Players resigned (with 2012 cap budget and rank amongst position cap):

K Mike Nugent ($3.25M, 6th)

DT Jonathan Fanene ($3.5M, 33rd)

DE Frostee Rucker ($3M, 36th)

SLB Manny Lawson ($3.75M, 45th)

OT Anthony Collins ($2M, 92nd, note: moved to RG)

FS Reggie Nelson ($4.5M, 15th)

TE Donald Lee or Bo Scaife ($0.75M, 32nd)

CB Kelly Jennings ($2M, 45th)

RFAs LB Dan Skuta, FB Chris Pressley, LS Clark Harris ($1.26M each)

Free agent options (with cap budget and rank amongst position cap):

WR ($4-5M = top 16-25): Robert Meachem, Mario Manningham, Pierre Garcon

RB ($5-6M = top 9-10): Michael Bush, Marshawn Lynch

Players released (cap savings):

S Chris Crocker (-$2M, production has really dropped off)

DE Robert Geathers (-$4.4M, still productive but have excellent 6-man rotation even without him)

Draft:

1a SS Mark Barron Alabama (starts opposite Reggie Nelson)

1b OG Cordy Glenn Georgia (starts at LG, moves to RT in 2013 if Andre Smith not resigned)

2 CB Brandon Boykin Georgia (a little short at 5090 good speed and provides options in return game)

3 RB Chris Polk Washington (he’s rated higher but I think he’ll end up dropping plus need isn’t great if we sign a FA RB)

4 WR Tommy Streeter Miami (Fla.)

5-7 TBD but likely DT, TE, DE, RB

With the players resigned, free agents acquired and the draft picks, we should add approx. $36.3M to our cap. We are currently at $83.9M which puts us at $120.2M giving us an estimated $20.4M in room under the projected cap. This fits well into the Mike Brown budgeting plan and doesn’t rely on crazy Daniel Snyder "what if" dream scenarios of signing guys who we can’t afford or don’t want to play in Cincinnati. Side note: we finished 2011 with $17.6M in cap room so this is a pretty big shift, but I think the combination of making the playoffs with this roster, no fans in the stands and Marvin Lewis having more "control" might shift the balance some.

I know we’ve seen 1,362 proposed offseason "plans" already but I still feel compelled to put my two cents in, especially since I feel like you have to look at the cap impact of all of this. The roster count with this list would be 62 which means we'd have our 53 active roster and 8-man PS solved with the remaining slots filled via injury replacements, etc.

Holes on the 2012 roster:

Starters: WR, both OG positions, RB, SLB, FS, K, possibly CB (depending upon Leon Hall’s health)

Reserves: WE, both DT positions, DE, CB

Players resigned (with 2012 cap budget and rank amongst position cap):

K Mike Nugent ($3.25M, 6th)

DT Jonathan Fanene ($3.5M, 33rd)

DE Frostee Rucker ($3M, 36th)

SLB Manny Lawson ($3.75M, 45th)

OT Anthony Collins ($2M, 92nd, note: moved to RG)

FS Reggie Nelson ($4.5M, 15th)

TE Donald Lee or Bo Scaife ($0.75M, 32nd)

RFAs LB Dan Skuta, FB Chris Pressley, LS Clark Harris ($1.26M each)

Free agent options (with cap budget and rank amongst position cap):

WR ($4-5M = top 16-25): Robert Meachem, Mario Manningham, Pierre Garcon

RB ($5-6M = top 9-10): Michael Bush, Marshawn Lynch

Players released (cap savings):

S Chris Crocker (-$2M, production has really dropped off)

DE Robert Geathers (-$4.4M, still productive but have excellent 6-man rotation even without him)

Draft:

1a SS Mark Barron Alabama (starts opposite Reggie Nelson)

1b OG Cordy Glenn Georgia (starts at LG, moves to RT in 2013 if Andre Smith not resigned)

2 CB Brandon Boykin Georgia (a little short at 5090 good speed and provides options in return game)

3 RB Chris Polk Washington (he’s rated higher but I think he’ll end up dropping plus need isn’t great if we sign a FA RB)

4 WR Tommy Streeter Miami (Fla.)

5-7 TBD but likely DT, TE, DE, RB

With the players resigned, free agents acquired and the draft picks, we should add approx. $34.3M to our cap. We are currently at $83.9M which puts us at $118.2M giving us an estimated $7.4M in room under the projected cap. This fits well into the Mike Brown budgeting plan and doesn’t rely on crazy Daniel Snyder "what if" dream scenarios of signing guys who we can’t afford or don’t want to play in Cincinnati. Side note: we finished 2011 with $17.6M in cap room so this is a pretty big shift, but I think the combination of making the playoffs with this roster, no fans in the stands and Marvin Lewis having more "control" might shift the balance some.

While it may be frustrating as a fan of this team, there are some benefits of the Bengals being extremely predictable. If you look back at the Marvin Lewis era drafts, the team has drafted almost as a reaction to the previous year. There are of course many factors that play into who the team picks in the draft (free agency results, how high the team is picking each round and presumably/hopefully their draft board versus who is available when it's time to pick). The trend however is undeniable: if the offense is ranked lower than the defense, we pick more offense players in the draft, and conversely if the defense is ranked lower than the offense, we pick more defensive players in the draft. The chart below shows the actual results.

The only exception is 2008 when picked the same number of offensive vs defensive players despite the large disparity between the rankings but even there is was an even number and not the opposite trend. You could say 2005 is an exception as well but I think the rankings are so close that it's within the "margin of error" for such a small sample like this.

The other trend is that our drafts are always very balanced year-to-year and obviously then also overall. I would suspect that most teams also seek balance, but not all. Dallas, for example, picked 6 offensive and 2 defensive players last year.

So who will the Bengals draft in 2012? I would anticipate that 5 picks for the offense and 4 picks for the defense, but I have suspicion that the defensive picks will actually be more weighted in the earlier rounds despite the better team ranking. We'll see...

The defense finished 7th in yards/game and 9th in points/game, which is good but still not great especially considering how many yards and points we gave up to lousy teams in the second half. Also, getting destroyed by Baltimore like we did in the last game brings this ranking into question. Was this a product of good defense or the fact we played a 4th-place schedule along with a week group of opponents from the AFC South and NFC West? But we were 5th in sacks and 6th in forced fumbles, but only 26th in interceptions. Losing Leon Hall certainly didn't help, but I'd almost argue losing J-Joe was the bigger deal here especially considering we had the cap room to keep him. Overall the team as +1 in the Take-Away / Give-Away category.

On offense, we finished 20th in yards/game and 18th in points/game. Looking further, the team was very balanced: 19th in rushing and 20th in passing. A.J. Green had a terrific rookie season, but it bears to mention that he only finished 17th the league in yards (just 24 yards ahead of Nate Washington!). Benson again gained 1000 yds for the season but he ranked only 16th yds/game and was the only 1000+ yard back to average less than 4 yds/carry. The team could certainly stand to upgrade here. The offensive line did a solid job pass-protecting - allowing only 25 sacks (tied-4th best) - but had a poor overall rating according to Football Outsiders and an average rating from PFF. With our top 3 OG's scheduled to be free agents in 2012, I would expect this group to get some attention in both free agency and the draft.

Special teams play was quite good: 7th in punt returns, 13th in net punting and 8th in field goal percentage. Nugent is a free agent but I would think resigning would be his preference - assuming the money is right. Tate was an upgrade in the return game over Quan Cosby (and cheaper) but it would be great next year to have more CB depth to allow Adam Jones more opportunities as a returner. He had only 2 returns this year but averaged 33.5 yards.

Looking ahead to 2012, we face the AFC West (DEN & OAK at home, KC & SD on the road), NFC East (DAL & NYG at home, PHI & WAS on the road) along with the 3rd place teams from the AFC East (MIA at home) and AFC South (JAC on the road). We avoid the truly elite teams again (GB, NO, NE) but still face tough divisional opponents in PIT & BAL. So if the team can finally build upon their own success for once, next year promises to again be a good season.

The free agent market for wide receivers has been very hit-or-miss. Most WRs get the big contracts from their own teams or via trade+extension, although a few have taken the free agent route (Rice, Bryant, Housh, Boldin). Most of the big contracts are obviously #1 guys but some in this list didn't even lead their team in yards or receptions (Holmes and Rice).

Here are the top names available next spring: Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Robert Meachem, Brandon Lloyd, Pierre Garcon, Mario Manningham (I don't expect Wes Welker, Steve Johnson or Mike Wallace to really be options come spring). Before picking a name from the list, it's important to figure out what kind of receiver best fits our new offense. A.J. Green has emerged as a legitimate #1 receiver who comes up big on 3rd downs but also on the deep ball. Shipley, if healthy, is a reliable slot guy. And if we can ever get Gresham more involved we'd have another weapon for the passing attack. What's missing: a deep threat.

Wallace would be ideal but as Mike Brown doesn't give up draft picks, this isn't an option. One of the Jacksons would be a good choice but each comes with baggage. Bowe is another good option, but he too hasn't put it all together. Meachem is intriguing given his deep speed and very good but underrated hands (66% catch rate). Colston however would be my target. He produces (1000yds and 8 TDs per season , has excellent hands (75%) and a high yards-per-pass rate (10.3).

Ironically, the potentially top free agent WR (Jordy Nelson) resigned with the Packers at a meager 3yr, $4.45M/yr, $1.67M guar/yr. I'm sure teams will look at this contract during negotiations whereas agents and players will focus on the Holmes and Rice contracts.

Resigning Simpson is worth considering but not as a starter - especially considering his uncertain future with his legal issues. But he's a good run blocker and can make the big play, even if he's inconsistent. Honestly though for the right price he's an asset to the team and hopefully the team's patience is rewarded with a hometown discount on a 1- or 2-year deal.

The Bengals finished the 2011 season with a total cap of $103,415,200 ($17.6M below the cap). Next year we have 34 players under contract for a cap charge of $71,579,200. An additional 6 players are not under contract but restricted (RFA: LS Clark Harris, FB Chris Pressley, LB Dan Skuta; EFA: RB Cedric Peerman, S Jeromy Miles, LB Vincent Rey). With an estimated team cap of $125,565,000 that's almost $54M in cap room to start improving the team. Some of this will go towards the draft picks, including the extra 1st rounder picked up on the Palmer trade, but given our position in the draft these contracts won't be significant.

There are three factors that should curb your enthusiasm: (1) this team won't spend its full cap room. Expect it to be below $110M just like 2011. Given the poor ticket sales and lack of marketing prowess of this team, I just don't see the cash flow to support Redskins-like spending. Plus the "forced spending" via a cap minimum doesn't kick in until 2013. (2) There are a lot of teams that have huge cap room too. Only the Steelers are currently over the cap with the Raiders, Giants, Panthers, Cowboys and Jets not too far behind. So despite the large number of quality free agents available, there are several teams competing for their services. And finally (3) the franchise tag isn't as expensive as it used to be, so look for many of the quality FA's to come off the market due to the tag.

The Cardinals defense allows 240.6 yds passing and 117.4 yds rushing per game, both of which are much more than the Bengals average. If we eliminate the turnovers, we should be able to generate more offense than our 22 pts/game average. The Cardinals offense generates 218.1 yds passing and 102.5 yds rushing per game. That is slightly more passing yds than our defense allows (214.4) but more rushing yards (99.6). Statistically this game is a win, but if we play down to our opponent again like we did against the Rams or a T.J. Yates-led Texans team, I'm not so sure.

As for the Ravens, both their offenese and defense have a more than 30yd disadvantages difference as compared to the Bengals. Although we outgunned them in Baltimore, we lost the turnover battle -2 despite Ray Lewis on the sidelines. If there is ever the need for homefield advantage and the win-to-get-in pressure of the playoffs, we need the boost!

On paper we should finish the last two games 1-1 but I can see this team actually getting two wins if we stop shooting ourselves in the foot. I'll let someone else analyze the Jets, since I don't really care...

Lost in the discussion of the collective bargaining discussion of last offseason is that the television contracts are up for renewal soon. Based on the past trends, this will cause a major jump in the cap. PFT has a few details on the figures being bounced around (link) and it's mind-blowing.

The real question will be if Mike Brown will stay ahead of the curve and use the current cap space to go after key free agents. I don't expect him to change his stripes - nor do I think the Daniel Snyder plan for free agency is even correct (see: Eagles, Dream Team). But we have an inexpensive core right now and can afford to pay for talent at positions we are weak in (safety, running back are two that come to mind).

If the cap is set at $125M next year, we'd have more than $50M in space with 32 players under contract. It might even be interesting to see them make a run at resigning Reggie Nelson before the year is up. I think his agent would prefer to see what the market can bear but who knows...

With 5 games left, the road ahead looks difficult but a playoff spot in Dalton's rookie season is still possible.  Next up is Pittsburgh who put on a performance to be forgotten in KC.  Expect a different team at home next week though.  A health Dunlap should provide some necessary pass rush which is key to slowing down the Steelers.  After that, it's back home to a 2/3-full Paul Brown to face the Texans.  The run defense needs to tighten back up (today against Cleveland was pretty poor) especially since rookie T.J. Yates (who?) is running the show at QB.  Then it's out to the West Coast to face the Cardinals and then back to Cinci to face the Rams.  Neither team is better than the Bengals but it doesn't mean they won't be hard-faught games.  Finally it's Baltimore for the home and season finale.  The Ravens have been bipolar this year and unfortunately we've seen the good side.  Don't expect them to lay an egg in January though.

The remaining teams fit well into our defensive strengths (except the Texans who can run like mad) and our offense is geared to excel against the NFC West teams.  On paper we should finish the final stretch 3-2 which would give us a 10-6 record.  That might be enough to keep us in the sixth seed but with the Jets always dangerous for a late-season run it's hard to say.  I'm looking forward to the next few weeks.  Go Bengals!

Assuming Benson's suspension sticks and Adam Jones is indeed ready to come of PUP, I can easily see the team sticking with its current group of running backs (Scott, Leonard, Peerman) with Scott and Peerman sharing the 1st and 2nd down carries and Leonard handling 3rd down.  Taking Leonard out of that role would do more harm than good.

With the open roster space, I would assume Jones can be activated without having to cut someone.  Once Benson is reactivated, it gets a little trickier.  If there's an injury in the Seattle game, a move to IR might be possible.  If no one is hurt, I think Jeromy Miles ends up with the short straw.  Mays can take his ST role on, plus Jennings and Hawkins have been good there too.  I might have said Vincent Rey but now with Maualuga hurt that seems unlikely.  Besides, I don't think the team has ever carried 11 DBs.

On a side note: what the heck is up with Keith Rivers?  Joe Reedy has said late November return or IR are the likely possibilities, but the team hasn't even mentioned his name since training camp it seems.  Plus do we even know how we was injured?  It was classified as "non-football" which only means it didn't happen under team supervision.  I'm guessing it was workout related or the team wouldn't have decided to pay him while on PUP (that was a team choice, not league or CBA rules).

The Silver & Black are one of the most active teams in the trade market and in light of the most recent deal for LB Aaron Curry, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at the last four years to see how things have worked out so far. Jump over for the trades....

Continue reading this post »