SB Nation User Blog: bforsythe

Not who we need, but what we need.

bforsythe — Thu, 07 May 2009 03:53:38 -0000

Obviously there is a lot of chatter right now about which players we should target via trade, free agency, and the draft. I say we should focus more on what we need and let those questions answer themselves. Or wait for KP to, whatever comes first.

DRAFT: Over the last few years our fan base has, rightfully, fallen in love with draft-day excitement. Those days are over, folks. Brandon Roy has said it: "I want to win a championship". I'm not saying that we shouldn't utilize one or two of our draft picks, but we definitely should not package them with any significant amount of assets to obtain a higher draft pick for the purpose of contributing next season. I would be all for packaging said picks with existing assets to get a player that fits the Blazer's timetable, preferably someone who has playoff experience or at least three years of NBA experience. This is a MUST if we are looking for someone who will need to fill a role that requires immediate contribution. Even a Ricky Rubio would require giving up too much and would simultaneously set us back three years if we NEEDED him to be our starter (which we probably would after trading away all of our point guards to get him).

Diagnosis: Trade secound round picks and AN asset (current player or player rights) for solid role players to assist Brandon's quest starting next year. I think a player that could fill a James Posey / Kurt Thomas / Eddie House - type role at the back-up power forward would help us the most here.

STARTING POINT GUARD: First let me say that I am completely against trading Steve Blake. No, he isn't our starter, but he is still extremely important to our team. While lacking the lateral quickness, defensive ability, and the ability to put pressure on the opposing defense he still brings the smarts, toughness, and big game experience that is so valuable to a team competing for a championship. Especially at the point guard position, as a backup. No matter what we do here, we still need Steve Blake. Now, what we need in a starting point guard are exactly the weaknesses in Steve's game stated above. Especially the part about being able to put pressure on the opposing team's point guard. This is very important because it will wear out the opposing point guard quickly while limiting their ability to focus on running their own offense. This is imperative to throwing the competition off their game plan in the playoffs. As we've seen, once this is accomplished we've pretty much won the series.

Diagnosis: Use a combination of our first round pick, cap space, and multiple assets to aqcuire someone who posseses the attributes mentioned above, and a high b-ball IQ.

SMALL FORWARD: Again refering to Brandon's declaration that our time is now, when we try to decide who our starting small forward should be, already on our roster or not, we should look at what we will need from this position to win a championship. Period. The way I would go about it would be by likely playoff matchups that would be the most challenging. The first player to come to mind is LeBron James. All paths to a championship is going to run through this guy for a while. I realize we won't be able to stop him no matter what we do. Our goal should be to make it as hard as possible for him to "do what he do". And what he does is bully smaller, finess-oriented small forwards out of his way to the hoop with his superior strength and athleticism. Sorry for all the Tayshaun fans out there, but he's already been ruled out. LeBron knocks feather-weights like him over.

Diagnosis: We need a small forward who is physically strong, well-built and can (at least) put up some resistance and make guys like LeBron and Carmelo work. One player I can see as a possible solution here is our own Martell Webster. We know that his athletic ability is very underated. We also know that he looks like a pretty strong guy. What we would need is for him to pack on another 10 pounds of muscle without comprimising his athleticism and shooting touch. Also, I'm not worried about focusing on one opponent too much here. if we are developing a small forward to compete with LeBron, well, 'nuff said.

BACKUP POWER FORWARD: I won't go into too much detail as I have already addressed this position under the draft portion of this post. What I will say is that whoever this person is, they need to have big game experience, size, defensive ability, toughness, and six fouls. With LaMarcus, Joel, and Oden already on our roster this guy won't play that much. Hopefully we can get a team-oriented guy who will go out in the last three minutes of the third quarter, rebound the heck out of the ball, and kick guys like Scola's ass (pardon my French).

Conclusion: Should be a pretty active, exciting off-season even without a lottery pick. I don't think too many fans of the other contenders can say the same thing. KP, Penn and co. have done a great job of setting us up to improve. I expect they will make this a recurring theme. GO BLAZERS!

76ers fans on Louis Williams.

bforsythe — Thu, 07 May 2009 01:01:20 -0000

76ers fans on Louis Williams.

I posted a poll on the Liberty Bell blog asking their members to chime in on Louis Williams. He has been mentioned as a possibility for our PGOF (point guard of the future!!). Hopefully we'll get some good insight from them.

Question from a Trailblazer Fan...

bforsythe — Thu, 07 May 2009 00:42:43 -0000

As you guys may or may not know, most of us over at Blazer's Edge are constantly debating who in the league could be our long-term answer at point guard. We love Steve Blake, but think he is better suited to a back-up roll. One guard that has been coming up often is the Philadelphia 76ers Louis Williams. I have definitely heard of him, and seen a few highlights, but don't really know much about him. I thought I'd come to the authority and get your opinions. Do you guys lilke him? Do you think he could develop into a point guard capable of leading a team (along with Brandon Roy and back-up PG Steve Blake) deep into the playoffs? Thanks in advance for your insight. I look forward to reading your thoughts.

Poll

How much do you like Louis Williams?

Love him. He's a big part of our future.

3 votes

Like him. Hope he stays around for a while.

4 votes

He's OK. Wouldn't really miss him though.

17 votes

Not a fan. Hope he's gone next season.

5 votes

Hate him. He shouldn't be wearing an NBA jersey anywhere.

4 votes

33 votes | Poll has closed

Overlooked "Headcase": Stephen Jackson

bforsythe — Wed, 06 May 2009 21:23:57 -0000

It was brought up in a post yesterday and it seems like we, as a fan base, are ready to accept a talented player with maybe a "few personality flaws". One name that was brought up that I don't think got nearly enough consideration is Stephen Jackson. Hey, if we're going to discuss Artest, why not? I believe this guy could be a great addition to our team if the price is right (dahh). He is tall and strong. He is a great pull-up AND spot-up shooter all the way out to three point land. He is a skilled passer who exhibits decent court vision. He is considered a top-notch perimeter defender, has a few post moves, and will attack the basket whenever the opportunity arises. He has had more than a few character issues come up but he has made serious efforts to make amends. Here is a link and a quote to consider (I did post them yesterday in a comment as well -- sorry for the repeat). How bout them apples?

QUOTE: From ESPN Insider Scouting Report

“Scouting report: Jackson is one of the league’s better defenders, which you’d never believe while watching him run up and down the court without bending his knees even one degree but is nonetheless true. He’s big for a wing, moves fairly well and plays with intensity; moreover, his ability to match against power forwards in a pinch helped make a lot of the Warriors’ small-ball lineups functional.

Offensively, his weapon of choice is a high-arcing 3-pointer — he’s great at pull-up 3s on the break in particular — but he also can finish at the basket when he attacks off the dribble. He’s not lightning quick by any means, but he’s a fairly elusive dribbler — though with a high bounce that he sometimes loses control over — and can get to the basket, plus he sees the court fairly well. "

LINK:

http://www.nba.com/warriors/news/jackson_march08_community_assist.html

Poll

Stephen Jackson

Yes.

20 votes

No.

57 votes

Maybe so.

23 votes

100 votes | Poll has closed

B Roy: 26.0 Playoff PER = Superstar

bforsythe — Tue, 05 May 2009 04:41:32 -0000

Here is a copy and paste of a great ESPN "insider" article I know not many of you want to pay for. Hope this works...

Insider Intel: Debutantes' Ball

The first playoff runs for Brandon Roy and Derrick Rose stack up well historically

Comment Email Print Share By Eric Neel
ESPN.com
Archive | Contact

The bad news for NBA playoff first-timers Brandon Roy and Derrick Rose is that they're spending the second round the same way I am, watching at home.

The good news for the Blazers' best player and the Bulls' young leader is that their inaugural postseason performances put them in some elite historical company.

[+] Enlarge Bill Baptist/Getty ImagesRoy's mature game translated beautifully to playoff basketball.

In six games against the Rockets, the 24-year-old Roy, who fought through flu-like symptoms near the end of the series, put up a player efficiency rating (PER) of 26.0, highlighted by 26.7 points per game and a true shooting percentage (TS%) of .562. The PER was 5.2 points over his career average and two points over his rating during the regular season. And he showed a willingness to be The Man when it mattered most. Roy took 3.4 more shots per game than during the regular season, increasing his usage percentage (USG%) from 27.5 to 33.1.

How does Roy compare to other star players in their first playoff performances? Try superstar-good.

It was only six games, but Roy's first-time playoff PER of 26.0 looks mighty fine alongside the first playoff appearances for Ray Allen (23.7 in three games), LeBron James (23.2 in 13 games), Allen Iverson (22.6 in eight games), Paul Pierce (21.1 in 16 games), Vince Carter (18.2 in three games), Dwyane Wade (17.7 in 13 games), and Carmelo Anthony (9.8 in four games). (I'm leaving Kobe off this list because he was just 18 years old and played only 15 minutes a night during his first playoff run.)

In fact, Roy was so good that his first time in the playoffs affords him a seat at a sacred table. Not only did his robust PER hold up next to Michael Jordan's (24.7 in four games in 1985), Magic Johnson's (22.1 in 16 games in 1980) and Larry Bird's (18.3 in nine games in 1980), it leads the way. Does that mean his career path will follow theirs? Don't be silly, it was only six games. But Roy did prove a lot in the first round.

So, too, did Rose, during Chicago's epic seven-game series against Boston. As a 20-year-old rookie point guard, all Rose did was average 19.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg and 6.4 apg. His PER (13.3) wasn't particularly good, but that was largely due to subpar performances in Games 2 and 3. In every other measure, he was fantastic, increasing his assist and rebound percentages from the regular season as well as upping his scoring average. And despite logging nearly eight minutes a night more than he had all season, and increasing his per-game shot total from 14.9 to 17.1, Rose improved on his regular-season TS% by 0.11 and his effective field goal percentage (EFG%) by 0.1 in his first playoff appearance.

It's harder to find analogs for Rose than Roy; because 20-year-old rookie point guards are a rare playoff breed.

[+] Enlarge AP Photo/Nam Y. HuhRose's first playoff appearance was a remarkable for a 20-year-old rookie.

Magic fit that description when he led the Lakers to the NBA title in 1980 and most of his numbers, from PER (22.1 to 13.4) to rebounds (10.5 to 6.3) and assists (9.4 to 6.4) per game, far exceeded Rose's. LeBron was 21 the first time he took the Cavs to the playoffs, and he too was more effective (a 23.2 PER, undergirded by 30.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 5.8 apg) than Rose. But LeBron wasn't a rookie in his first playoff run, and both he and Magic were (and are) 6-foot-9, mold-breaking freaks of nature capable of playing the point, the post and everything in between. They're a tough yardstick for Rose or anyone else to measure up against.

Wade, as a 22-year-old rookie first-timer, played a good deal of point in his first playoff season, so he is a better comparison. The Heat star outpaced Rose in playoff PER (17.7 to 13.4), assist percentage (30.6 to 26.8), and steal percentage (1.9 to 0.7). But they shot and got to the line equally well (both had a TS% of .527), and the younger Rose had the better first playoffs on the boards, (posting an 8.2 total rebound percentage versus Wade's 5.8) and blocking shots (1.2 block percentage versus 0.7).

Deron Williams, who was also 22 years old in his first playoff appearance (though a second-year man, not a rookie), is another decent point of comparison. Williams' playoff PER in 2003-04 was 18.8, and he has a considerable edge in first-time playoff AST% (39.1 to 26.8), STL% (2.1 to 0.7) and turnover percentage (18.2 to 21.1). But in Rose's first time around the playoff track he put up better rebound (8.2 to 6.5 TRB%) and block (1.2 to 0.6 BLK%) rates, and the two players were about even as shooters -- Williams' .535 TS% was slightly better than Rose's .527, and Rose's .492 EFG% was a tick stronger than Williams' .487.

And though he was a different style of point, if you turn on the way-back machine, you'll find 22-year-old rookie John Stockton's first-time playoff numbers (13.3 PER, .548 TS%, 3.6 TRB%, 35.9 AST%, 26.4 TOV% and 15.1 USG%) running a suggestive and promising parallel to Rose's (13.4 PER, .527 TS%, 8.2 TRB%, 26.8 AST%, 21.1 TOV% and 24.1 USG%) too.

Both Roy and Rose have weaknesses, of course. Roy's AST% dropped dramatically in the playoffs, while Rose's TOV% skyrocketed. They'll have to learn to involve their teammates more efficiently going forward. And prediction is obviously an imperfect science. Injuries, personnel and coaching changes and other distractions could end up derailing either player in the future.

But as we move on in the 2009 playoffs without them, may I suggest we take a beat and recognize the way each guy manned up in his first crack at the NBA's postseason.

And may I further suggest that given the way their numbers echo and compete with the records of some big-time names past and present, we're nowhere near the last of the good news for Brandon Roy and Derrick Rose.

Eric Neel is a senior writer for ESPN.com.

"I'm not concerned. We'll play better at home," Rockets' forward Shane Battier said after Game 5....

bforsythe — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 22:29:03 -0000

"I'm not concerned. We'll play better at home," Rockets' forward Shane Battier said after Game 5. "We're excited. It's not a pressure situation."

Hot Off the NBA Wire from Houston

Canzano on Rubio: Would you or wouldn't you?

bforsythe — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:22:54 -0000

I know, I know. We finally have something more to look forward to this time of year than the draft. But I just can't help myself. Why not continue to stay young and improve while competing in the playoffs? I'm down.

Below is a link to this mornings article:

http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2009/04/would_you_add_ricky_rubio_to_t.html

Word on the "internets" is that Ricky's hefty contract buyout will scare most NBA teams away from drafting him in our current economic climate.

Sounds like the perfect opportunity for Mr. Allen and Co. to offer one of the lottery-bound teams an offer they can't refuse.

I leave it to you, bedgsters. What would it take to get Rubio in a Blazers uniform? Could we trade RLEC for a draft pick? Further, could we trade RLEC and one or two players for a draft pick? What if we made an arrangement with a team ahead of time? Does that affect what we could offer for him? Would you even be interested? You know where to comment...

Poll

Would you pursue Ricky Rubio in the upcoming draft?

Bring me Rubio, whatever the cost!

87 votes

Sure, but only if it's a steal.

170 votes

No. Paul Allen should save his money and not risk giving up any of our talent for another unproven youngster.

31 votes

288 votes | Poll has closed

More from ESPN: Post/Shot Two-fer.

bforsythe — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 19:34:09 -0000

I'm about to give up my insider status. These guys have completely shifted into a spin machine and away from sports journalism. Today they had one from David Thorpe pairing this year's rookies with NBA "veterans" that said rookies should emulate. I will list his results for those of you without access. For those who do, here is a link:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=thorpe_david&page=RookieStudy09-Rose

Derrick Rose: Chauncey Billups

Michael Beasley: Carlos Boozer (Ummm, huh?)

O.J. Mayo: Kevin Durant (I could've sworn he said VETERANS!)

Russell Westbrook: Dwayne Wade

Kevin Love: Kevin Garnett (By leaving Minny?)

Danilo Gallinari: Paul Milsap

Eric Gordon: Rip Hamilton

Joe Alexander: Ron Artest

DJ Augustine: Jameer Nelson

Brook Lopez : Tim Duncan

Jerryd Bayless: Kobe Bryant (Thorpe says Bayless always "looks too cool on the court" based on his accomplishments. Is he suggesting he could learn a lesson in humility from Bryant? Really?)

Jason Thompson: Al Horford

Brandon Rush: Danny Granger

Anthony Randolph: Ray Allen

Mareese Speights: Amar'e Stoudamire

Roy Hibbert: Pau Gasol (LMFAO)

JaVale McGee: Andris Biedrins

JJ Hickson: David West

Courtney Lee: Chris Paul (He's not a point guard!)

Mario Chalmers: Andre Miller

Anthony Morrow: Eddie House (My brain just exploded.)

Greg Oden: Dwight Howard (We have a winner!)

Marc Gasol: Yao Ming

Rudy Fernandez: Manu Ginobili

I CAN'T BELIEVE I PAY FOR THIS STUFF!!!

And, I know I'm a homer, but not one of these guys should emulate Brandon Roy? Really? Sure, who wants a guy that comes in, gets rookie of the year his first season, named to the all-star squad every other year, and raises his team's total wins by over 10 w's per season. And then not only gets his team into the playoffs, but is fighting for HCA - in his THIRD season. That'd be stupid! Better to just emulate KD instead, so they can be superstars...and LOSE.

PS - I meant to post this on Saturday. Came into work and it was still on my screen, un-posted. Sorry if this already got some burn. I'm still a little fired up.

In Response to OKC article about what Bucher said.

bforsythe — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 18:48:23 -0000

View the article here: http://blog.oregonlive.com/blazers/2009/04/the_future_blazers_and_thunder.html

And my "comment" (which was a response that was too long and thought it might be a good post):

Bucher is one of the few national sports media cats I've always liked. Let's remember that this is an OKC beat writer's interpretation of what he said.

Brandon Roy is, by definition, already a superstar. Didn't Bucher himself write something about putting Roy up there with Wade, LeBron and Kobe?

Let's run down a comparison of accomplishments...
BRANDON ROY:
First Year: ROY, +11 wins, DNQ
Second Year: All-Star, +12 wins, DNQ
Third Year: All-Star, +7 wins (8 games to-go) Playoff Berth (team's first in 6 seasons)

KEVIN DURANT:
First Year: ROY, -12 wins, DNQ
Second Year: +1 win (8 games to go), DNQ

AND I believe KD will be more of a free-agent flight risk than LeBron or Wade will ever be. I don't care how great the fans are, nobody wants to end up in OKC and the team will have a tough time attracting/keeping free agents.

Ummmm, yeah.

And did Bucher really say Russell Westbrook is already guaranteed to be their point guard of the future as the writer implied? Has he proven that he can lead his team to big wins in big games? Sure, 15, 5 and 5 is nice but it's on a bad team during losing efforts. If Westbrook's stats have proven him to be the answer at PG than Zach Randolph has proven to be the answer at PF. We all know that ain't right. I'm not saying Russell won't be someday. But you can't say it's a sure thing he will be someday.

I'm happy to let the W/L column vs. toughness of schedule do the talking here and for the next 5-10 years.

Let's hope Nate plasters the OKC article on the white board tonight and plays some catchy rap-music.

GO BLAZERS!

Poll

Who's with me?

Me!

141 votes

No way!

7 votes

148 votes | Poll has closed

J.C. Butler: The Perfect Fit

bforsythe — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 03:41:16 -0000

Read his bio (below). This guy is exactly who we need for the 3 spot. Sure, this doesn't address our perceived point guard issue, but it is a huge step toward serious, consistent contention.

Full name is James Caron Butler…Lists his mother Mattie Paden as the person he most admires and a person who made a difference in his life, raising him as a single mother…Recognized by The Sporting News as one of the top “Good Guys” in sports in 2006 for his charitable endeavors…Was tabbed as a Special Deputy by the Philadelphia Sheriff’s Department in March, 2006…Helped organize “Urban Dialogue: Stop The Violence — A Community Outreach Event” in his hometown of Racine, Wisconsin in August, 2005…Brought kids of all ages and races together for an afternoon of basketball and discussion to promote the idea of a violence-free community…Donated $3,000 for prize money to be distributed to the winning basketball team from the 18-and-older division…Donated $26,000 to purchase and give away 300 bicycles to underprivileged youths in Racine in May, 2005…Was a guest on “The Oprah Winfrey Show” in September, 2005 in a show titled “How My Worst Moment Made Me a Star”… Is involved with the Bray Center Youth Fund back in his hometown of Racine, WI…Visited incarcerated youth at Oak Hill Youth Detention Center to offer support and share his life story…Would like to open a group home and run it when he is done with his playing career…Was a communications major at Connecticut…Played two seasons at UConn before becoming an early entry candidate for the NBA Draft…Earned Honorable Mention All-America honors from the Associated Press as a sophomore in 2001-02…Represented the United States and won a gold medal at the World Championship For Young Men Tournament played in Japan in August of 2001…Had his uniform number (54) retired at Racine Park High School in Racine, Wisconsin, during All-Star Weekend in February, 2006…Also had his number (25) retired at Maine Central Institute in Pittsfield, Maine in 2002…Was inducted into the New England Sports Hall of Fame in September of 2003…Had his uniform number (54) retired at Park High School in the spring of 2003… Married Andrea Pink in August, 2005… Has two daughters, Mia Caron and Camary and a son, Caron Jr…Splits time between Centreville, VA and Racine, WI.