SB Nation User Blog: bgh

THT: How valuable is UZR?

bgh — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:49:01 -0000

THT: How valuable is UZR?

This is an interesting look at how reliable UZR is as a metric of defensive ability, complete with graph. Definitely worth a read, given our frequent forays into The Skip Schumaker Experiment via UZR.

Bernie loves RBIs as a measuring stick for offensive talent

bgh — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:20:43 -0000

Bernie Miklasz, ladies and gentlmen, has had it. And he's not going to take anymore. He's had with you whiners out there who don't think that Mark DeRosa is an "impact bat." That term, of course, is a TLRism traditionally reserved for Matt Holliday. (Oh, and Bernie's had it with the folks pining for Holliday, too. I'm unsure if that includes TLR.) Bernie begins:

Mark DeRosa is not a judy hitter: One can only laugh at the whining by the minority (but loud) minority of media and fan voices out there who pan the DeRosa trade because he isn’t an "impact bat." You’d think that the guy was just barely a notch above, say, Brian Barden or Joe Thurston. Do these folks even bother to do any homework? Have they paid any attention to the 2009 season?

I will begin by saying that any time one can find a way to insult Go-Go-Joe and his right-handed counterpart in the "replacement player" hyrdra that has been third base for the Cards this season, I am usually all for it. And, yes, I'm excited to see Bernie's term paper entitled, "DeRosa: Impact Bat," which is apparently based on...three months of baseball. What? That's a little more than 300 PAs, which should never be the baseline by which anyone measures a player's ability as a hitter. What's that? Oh, excuse me, Crash. Yes, you can type. No, no problem at all. Go ahead...

Bernie, do you know what the difference between hitting .300 and .250 is? It's twenty-five hits. Twenty-five hits in five hundred at-bats is fifty points, okay? Wait? What? Excuse me. Do you know the difference between hitting .300 and .250 is in about half of a season is? Twelf and a half hits. Yes, I know you can't have a half of a hit, but I'm talking math here, Meat. Twelve and a half hits! There's three months in a half of a season; that's about twelf and a half weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week (and a half a flare in that half-week)--just one--a gorp...you get a "groundball with eyes"...you get a quail, just one more dying quail a week...and you're in Busch Stadium.

Thanks, Crash. That was great. No, no, man. It was great. You absolutely do NOT need any new material. I'd like to add one thing, just one. Bo Hart hit .277 in 322 PAs back in aught-three. Really, Crash. What, you don't believe me? Well, get off my front yard lazy boy and go look that shit up. See? I told you. Look, man, I'd love to go hit some balls at the cage, but I've got to read over Bernie's midterm paper. Yeah, okay, have fun. Say "hi" to Annie for me.

Okay, sorry about that. Back to the Miks.

At the time of the trade that sent DeRosa from Cleveland to St. Louis, DeRosa was 18th in the majors in RBIs. He had more RBIs than Matt Holliday, Chipper Jones, Chase Utley, Jim Thome, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Lee,Lance Berkman, Adrian Gonzalez, Paul Konerko, Ryan Zimmerman, DavidWright, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Nick Markakis, Miguel Tejada, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Derrek Lee, Carlos Beltran, James Loney, Nate McLouth,Johnny Damon, Scott Rolen, Vernon Wells, Jermaine Dye, Bobby Abreu,Brandon Phillips, Alfonso Soriano, Dan Uggla and J.D. Drew.

James Loney!? What!? He OPS'd .772 in his first full season as a big league first baseman and is OPSing .731 this season. Why in the blue blazes of Hades is he on your list?

Runs batted in. "RBIs" to the baseball card enthusiasts amongst us. I see that Bernie has read Joe Morgan's book, even if he doesn't cite to the source material of how to measure a good hitter (or, "impact bat" if you live in the Gateway City):

Run production is how you measure hitters. Wins and losses are how you measure pitchers. Batting averages and ERAs are personal stats.

--Joe Morgan in Baseball for Dummies

Run production, which includes RBIs, as the measuring stick of a hitter. Not BA, not OPS, not WAR, not WS, not VORP. RBIs. In order to bat in a run, a runner must have reached base before one steps to the bat. Thus, without runners on-base in front of you, your likely to have less Runs Batted In than players who are fortunate enough to bat with runners on-base in front of them. Mark DeRosa played for Cleveland. He has 88 PA with runners in scoring position. He has gone 22-for-76 in those situations, walking 8 times, being walked intentionally once, and hitting a sacrifice fly 3 times. With men on, DeRosa has had 157 PAs and 45 RBI, which is good for 90 percent of his RBI total.

Still, 50 RBIs is 50 RBIs, man, and that's better than a whole shitload of great impact bats. I mean, clearly Mark DeRosa is better at hitting than Chase Utley. Clearly. He has 50 fucking RBIs! And, Utley, has...51 RBIs. Well, when Bernie wrote the column, DeRosa must have been ahead in the RBI tally by all of one or two RBIs. Clearly better. Oh, and Utley has knocked in his 51 runs in 143 PAs with men on. Yes, Utley has more RBIs in 14 fewer PAs with runners on-base. That's impact, man, deep impact--like the crappy movie from a few years back. What's more,Utley's hit 11, yes 11, solo HRs. DeRosa has 13 HRs total. Utley's OPS? It's .991 and he plays second base like he's channeling his inner Oquendo. D-Ro? His OPS is .782 this season. Yet, the Bern thinks that DeRosa is as impactful, or perhaps moreso because of his RBI total, than Chase Utley?

A quick rundown of the other players whom DeRosa is more impactful than:

Hanley: 52 RBI (now) in 147 PAs with runners on

Miggy: 47 RBI (now) in 139 PAs with runners on

Wright: 40 RBI in 170 PAs with runners on (even though he's hitting .356/.435/.514/.949 with men on)

Puma: 45 RBI in 150 PAs with runners on

Aside from showing that Bernie is a little disingenuous with his representations, this shows how silly the comparison is. Who cares if DeRosa has 1, 2, 5, or 10 more ribbies than [name your impact bat]? DeRosa's OPS is .782, which isn't horrible or anything, but he's replacing Joe Thurston and the Go-Go's at third, who have "hit" .223/.300/.368/.668 (this includes a game from D-Ro). So, he's an upgrade by a whopping 120 points of OPS, which is a shot in the arm offensively no matter how you look at it. We don't need to be hailing him as a mightier driver in of runs than Miggy or Hanley or The Puma, because that's just a bald-faced distortion of his offensive talent and only serves to underline the worthlessness of RBIs as an indicator of hitting talent. Way to use your platform, Bernie. I tip my "STL" cap to you.

De Rosa had as many RBIs as Adam Dunn and as many homers as Thome. DeRosa had more homers than a long list of guys including Holliday, C. Lee, D. Lee, C. Jones,Brad Hawpe, McLouth, Zimmerman, Wright.

DeRosa no longer has "as many RBIs as Adam Dunn." Trust me, Bernie, he's on my Fantasy Team. (I mean, c'mon, Bernie. This blog posted on my Google Reader this afternoon and it's already factually inaccurate.) And while D-Ro may have "as many homers as Thome," Big Jim has had his 13 jacks in 87 fewer PAs (because Big Jim doesn't play in the field any more during Inter-League). This is a silly sentence, Bernie, and the P-D should expect better.

DeRosa may not be, say, Ryan Howard in the slugging department.

Or, Thome, or Miggy, or Puma, or Dunn, or Hanley, or Youk, or Gonzalez....In fact, they have a stat, "Slugging Percentage," that measures slugging. You see, it weights hits so that HRs are worth four times as much as singles. Albert Pujols leads the world in this category and Mark DeRosa, well, he's 80th in MLB in that category with a .446 slugging percentage. Furthermore, after an admittedly quick skim, it seems that every slugger you list slugs more than him. If "impact" means "slugger," then D-Ro is not at the top of the heap.

But he’s been one of the better run producers in baseball this season.

Um, see above, where I quote Joe Morgan in Baseball for Dummies. That is how Joe Morgan grades batsmen.

I have no idea what the mewling is all about; what exactly did you expect GM John Mozeliak to do here, more than a month before the trade deadline? Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams were unavailable, and Stan Musial wasn’t prepared to come out of retirement. Do you see any other sluggers being offered or traded these days? Where are they? And what is an "impact" bat, exactly? If adding a guy who has more RBIs than Beltran, Berkman and Utley isn’t "impact" in your book, then please educate the rest of us. Thanks.

"If adding a guy who has more RBIs than Beltran, Berkman and Utley isn't 'impact' in your book, then please educate the rest of us. Thanks...," Wow, that's what it says. Really. I mean, wow. Education is the most valuable of all commodities. My parents instilled that in me.

Beltran has been on the DL for a week. Remember when you were in New York for the series versus the Metropolitans and he did not play a single inning? Beltran was OPSing .9fucking52 before his knee put him on the shelf. He had driven in 40 runs in 142 PAs. Oh, and he hit .356/.458/.585/1.042 with men on. D-Ro? .304/.365/.529/.894 with men on. That's good, but it's not Carlos Beltran good. In fact, Utley is OPSing 1.106 with men on and The Puma is OPSing .902 with men on. So, if your barometer is performance with runners on the base paths, which apparently Bernie's is because he is using RBIs as his measuring stick, all three of those guys are better than Mark DeRosa. What's more, each OPSes higher than D-Ro for the year: D-Ro, .782; Beltran, .952; Utley, .991; and Puma: .891. Inferring that DeRosa will have more impact on the Cardinals than those three have on their respective teams is utter nonsense.

Any GM, manager, beatwriter, fan, or Fantasy Baseball participant would gladly take Beltran (pre-injury), Berkman, or Utley when posed with the question: "Which of the following two MLB players is more of an "impact" bat? Mark DeRosa or Beltran/Puma/Utley?" This is not to say that DeRosa will not have an "impact," just not as big of an impact as some other, better offensive player. That statement is just silliness.

2. Enough already, for now, about Matt Holliday...

I agree. Moving along, then. (Although, folks should read about Beane's astronomical asking price.)

3. If anything, the Cardinals should be looking for a starting pitcher...

Hmmm. I'm intrigued. Go on...

Todd Wellemeyer has the third-worst ERA (5.53) among MLB starting pitchers and is allowing more base runners per nine innings than any big-league starting pitcher. After being plugged into the rotation as an injury replacement for Kyle Lohse, Brad Thompson was terrific for a while but has gotten bopped around in his last two starts, allowing two of the lesser offenses in the NL (Mets and Giants) to rack him for 9 ER in 11 IP.

Legend has it that The Almighty Duncan saw the foolish Royals cast off a rough-around-the-edges reliever in whom the saw potential. The Cards acquired this hurler int he midst of The Lost Season of Oh Seven." Duncan then instilled in this pitcher the virtues of throwing strikes low in the zone, throwing a sinker to induce groundballs, and pitching to contact. The pitcher thrived and USA Today wrote not one, but two, stories about The Almighty's incredible coaching powers, one featuring a prominent quote by the young Royals castoff on the front page of the Sports section. Now, The Colonel has an ERA of 5.53 (gasp!) after posting one of a mere 3.71 last season. Of course, it should be pointed out that there is this newfangled stat entitled "Fielding Independent Pitching," or, "FIP" to the nerdy seemhead crowd. Wellemeyer's was 4.51 last season, suggesting that his ERA should have been high. And, it is 4.81 this season, suggesting his ERA should be lower. Further delving into Wellemeyer's morass, it should be noted that his good slider is being thrown 6 percent less as a share of his overall pitch count than last year and his changeup has been horrendous this season (4.6 above average value last season; -12.7 value below average this season). Perhaps, scrapping the changeup is in order. No, I don't know how he'd retire lefties in doing so, but it's not like he is now. They are hitting .347/.426/.614/1.040 against him for the year. That's better than Mark DeRosa! Very impactful.

The Faberge Egg propagandists would have you believe that the Cardinals can install one of the Class AAA pitchers from Memphis, but they are not an upgrade at this point.

For starters, insulting folks whose website I frequent really rankles me. "Faberge Egg propagandists?" Where I come from, you might as well call us "communists." This makes the lot who believe in building from within to be blindly devoted to prospects at all costs. If you bother to read Future Redbirds, or, comments on this blog, I think that most folks here take a reasoned and objective view toward the value and ability of the kids on the farm. Sure, some spats with the Proven Veteran adherents will erupt, often bringing out the worst in both camps. Nonetheless, this sentence prompted me to order a faux Faberge Egg for my office and while I'm not Octopussy or a communist, I feel that building our club on a foundation of cheap, homegrown propsects is essential to our sustained competitiveness. And, more to the point, how do you know that Mitchell Boggs or Blake Hawksworth wouldn't be an upgrade over The Colonel or Brad Thompson?

But, the real issue, which is being distorted by Bernie's clever framing, is how do we know that they can't do a largely equivalent job for cheaper, allowing us to divert payroll elsewhere come next spring (like for a Proven Veteran bullpen arm to replace Perez)?

4. Question for the minor-league experts: I wanted to say this up front — I’m being sincere when I ask this: is there anything down below that suggests the Cardinals are well on the way to developing a power-arm starting pitcher? The guys who keep coming up here – Mitchell Boggs, P.J. Walters, Clayton Mortensen — tend to nibble and throw a lot of pitches instead of going after hitters. Seems to me that this is a genuine void in the system; perhaps Lance Lynn (at AA Springfield) fits the profile.

So, what are they? "Faberge egg propagandists" or "minor-league exerpts?" What this open question really demonstrates, I guess, is that Bernie knows nothing about the farm system, about prospects, or about player development. So, when he calls "minor-league experts" "Faberge egg propagandists," it is name-calling born out of complete ignorants. (This isn't terribly surprising since name-calling generally is started by ignoramuses.) It makes me wonder why Bernie doesn't take a few minutes out of his day this offseason to educate himself so his columns and blogs are not founded on ignorance.

If there’s someone in the system who is a legit hard thrower (a starter, not a reliever) please let us know. This is another reason why the Cardinals must sign No. 1 draft pick Shelby Miller, who is a power arm.

Yes, we must sign Miller because we don't have someone with legit, top-of-the-rotation raw stuff. He would quickly become the prized Faberge Egg. It's a brilliant scheme, really. If Miller isn't signed, then we can get a "DeWallet" column. If he is, then we get three years of "Faberge Egg" columns calling on Mo to trade Miller for the next DeRosa-type "impact" run producer. In a way, it's brilliant...

5. DeRosa vs. the NL Central: I was curious as to how the new Cardinal did as a Cub against the rest of the NL Central in 2007-2008...

Why? I mean, he played for the Cubs in both seasons, so he didn't face Zambrano, Dempster, Harden, Marshall, etc. Ben Sheets and CC left. The Pirates have by and large maintained their core of young starters, but they are doing way better this year, so the comparison probably isn't apt. There just isn't enough of a sample size against the pitchers to draw anything meaningful from how DeRosa hit against players wearing a certain cap and jersey...

Overall in 2007-2008, DeRosa had 14 homers and 79 RBIs in 500 ABs against Central teams; only 13 players had more RBIs in intramural competition, and only seven had more doubles.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OH MY GOD! YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mark DeRosa has the 14th most fucking RBIs versus NL Central teams in 2007 and 2008!!!!!!!! I take it all back. He is an impact bat like Beltran/Utley/Puma, only better and more impactful!

Bullpen Usage Chart on "Daily Baseball Date"

bgh — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:20:44 -0000

Bullpen Usage Chart on "Daily Baseball Date"

It's a pretty cool chart that shows recent bullpen usage by team. Definitely worth bookmarking in attempts to decipher TLR's bullpen management.

Joel Pineiro's Scorched Earth Policy

bgh — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 14:34:52 -0000

Joel Pineiro's Scorched Earth Policy

A nice analysis over at The Hardball Times of Jo-El's shutout versus the Metropolitans.

Psycho Steve Lyons on "Nouveau" Stats

bgh — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 17:53:15 -0000

Psycho Steve Lyons on "Nouveau" Stats

Shysterball linked to this over at Sons of Steve Garvey. It's a pretty amusing little back-and-forth that makes ol' "Psycho" seem like his nickname should be "Ignoramus." An excerpt:

Collins: I was talking last inning about Gordon Beckham and his OPS. OPS, some people just kind of gloss over that. But it is fairly indicative of a quality player. You look in the history of baseball, you look at the on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, and without fail, the top ten players are all the elite of the elite in the history of major league baseball.

And I know it's college baseball, but Gordon Beckham last year as a college player, middle infield, shortstop, an OPS of 1.323. He had an on-base percentage of over five hundred percent. Five hundred! Slugging percentage over eight hundred.
To put that in perspective, Albert Pujols is off to a great start this year. Just a great start with St. Louis. His OPS right now is 1.159. Two hundred percentage points lower than what Gordon Beckham did last year as a collegian.

Lyons: See, that's why I gloss over it, because I don't know what 1.300 means. It's a number.

Joe Mather has 3rd wrist surgery

bgh — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 13:40:49 -0000

Joe Mather has 3rd wrist surgery

Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak confirmed today that Joe Mather had wrist surgery Monday, though the Cardinals do not yet know if it will end Mather’s season. It is the third surgery Mather has had on his left wrist in the past 12 months. Mather has spent all season with Class AAA Memphis, and he’s twice gone on the disabled list because of an inability to generate enough pop with his bat because of the limitations of his wrist. Mather was most recently put on the disabled list about 10 days ago.

The second surgery he had — a cleanup procedure down earlier this season — was a limited procedure designed to get him back on the field as early as possible. At the time Mather and the team knew that if it didn’t allow him to swing the bat painfree, then a third surgery would be inevitable.

'09 Cardinals Yearbook is now for sale on the Official Site

bgh — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 13:29:13 -0000

'09 Cardinals Yearbook is now for sale on the Official Site

I remember we had someone looking for the Yearbook earlier this year in the comments of the Main Post. I got this email today and thought I'd post it for anyone who desires a $17 Cardinals Yearbook.

Evaluating Managers

bgh — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 13:30:11 -0000

Evaluating Managers

Given our discussion yesterday on this subject, I this was an interesting read. It is a method of evaluating managers on a 0-to-100 scale. Pretty interesting read. Where does TLR rank all-time according to this tool? Well, dear reader, click on the link and find out!

Tony La Russa v. Twitter

bgh — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 15:42:27 -0000

Tony La Russa v. Twitter

TLR is suing Twitter for trademark infringement and dilution, cybersquatting, and misappropriation of name and likeness over a fake Twitter account that contained "vulgar and apparently Cardinals-related references." The fake page was removed by Twitter following the filing of the lawsuit.

FanGraphs Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals

bgh — Thu, 28 May 2009 21:26:29 -0000

FanGraphs Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals

I'm sure most of you have seen the preceding posts in this series. Mark Hulet has run down the last few drafts for the Cards, listing the best and worst picks, etc. He also looks ahead to what needs the Cardinals as an organization have heading into this year's draft.

SB Nation User Blog: bgh

THT: How valuable is UZR?

Bernie *loves* RBIs as a measuring stick for offensive talent

Bullpen Usage Chart on "Daily Baseball Date"

Joel Pineiro's Scorched Earth Policy

Psycho Steve Lyons on "Nouveau" Stats

Joe Mather has 3rd wrist surgery

'09 Cardinals Yearbook is now for sale on the Official Site

Evaluating Managers

Tony La Russa v. Twitter

FanGraphs Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals

Bernie loves RBIs as a measuring stick for offensive talent