SB Nation Blog: bgh

Skill or "Energy"

bgh — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 22:28:40 -0000

Bernie, Bernie, Bernie. The Chinese need energy to continue economic growth. Busch Stadium needs energy to light the stadium, keep the Budweiser cold, and light the Stan Musial statue. The City of St. Louis needs energy to run traffic lights, street lamps, provide electricity. The St. Louis Cardinals Baseball Club, though, does not need energy.

Sitting at the Par Loung e , Bernie could have written an intelligent, researched post about how the Cardinals squandered good pitching performances, how they aren't getting guys on-base, how they are not being patient at the plate, how Pujols being out amplifies the black hole in offensive production that is our middle infield, or some other poignant subject. Of course, Bernie didn't do that. Instead he embarked on the worst kind of sports writing, a column on the stuff of myth and lore--in this case, it's "energy."

Bernie states that the Cardinals need to "energize" their attack, by playing Barton and Ryan more as well as by calling up Memphis Redbirds (apparently because AAA players have more "energy"). Admittedly, since greenies were banned, teams seem a little lethargic. The chocolate-covered espresso beans from Starbucks don't seem to be doing the trick. The problem is that we are swinging more, taking fewer pitches, and walking less. Surely, taking a pitch is the least energetic endeavor in baseball, followed by its derivative--the walk. As LB chronicled in a post that was everything Bernie's is not, this is the problem of our beloved Redbirds since Pujols went down.

I don't think that Cesar Izturis's inability to hit is due to a lack of energy, nor do I think that Kennedy's incredibly slow bat speed is because his energy cells are running low. And, anyone will tell you that Aaron Miles always puts forth 117% in his grit-filled efforts. But energetic scrappiness doesn't mean that Miles should play over Ryan, either. Brendan Ryan should be getting more ABs because Izturis and Kennedy just aren't that good.

The Real Izturis has stood up. It has nothing to do with energy and everything to do with skill, or a lack thereof. An inflated OBP in the early going has fallen to normal and expected levels. And an inflated OPS, especially after his lone HR, has similarly sank like a stone cast into the sea. His BA is also bad. He is not good enough to be penciled into a big league lineup for a team striving to play in October. For the year, Izturis is batting .241/.315/.313, for a horrid .628 OPS that ranks him 20th out of 21 big leaguers with at least 200 PAs as a shortstop. Point blank, Cesar Izturis should not be allowed to dig into a Major League batter's box.

Adam Kennedy has proven himself washed up as well. The question of whether or not Kennedy would be able to rebound from his horrendous 2007 season after surgery has been resoundingly answered in the negative. His slapping weakly proved lucky early this season, but has since evened out, exposing him as a subpar player not fit to button a jersey with Cardinals-on-bat (and, probably not even with a Redbird-on-Memphis). AK's .258 BA might not be unbearable if his OBP weren't worse than even Izturis at .308. To make matters worse, he is slugging only .304 (and that's in the wake of his only HR of the season). All of this makes for an OPS of .637, which is bad for 22nd out of 24 secondbasemen with at least 175 PAs. Kennedy is the new Junior Spivey and should be dealt with accordingly.

Even after today's very good performance, Aaron Miles is on the fringe of being a legitimate big leaguer. He certainly is not good enough defensively to have played SS as much as he has this season. Even one inning is too much. His high BA, for him, of .293 has bolstered his marginal .333 OBP, and today's blasts have propped up a nonexistent slugging percentage. Nonetheless his OPS of .681 is not good and intolerable with the black hole at SS.

I'm not at all stating that Brendan Ryan has been setting the park ablaze with his hitting. That said, in his relatively few ABs, he has hit .276/.321/.314, for an OPS of .636, which sucks. But, last season he put up an OPS of .753 and he did have the best Spring Training of our quartet of slappy middle infielders. He has played a solid defense in his limited playing time, as well, showing good range. It would do the Cards well to see what Ryan can do since it cannot conceivably be worse than Izturis and Kennedy. That way, we know how badly we need to target a middle infielder come the deadline.

What the Cardinals need in the wake of Pujols' injury is not energy, but baserunners and power. In the K.C. sweep, we managed a mere .224 OBP. We also slugged four XBH, one of which was a solo Ankiel homer. With no one on the basepaths and no one driving the ball, runs were not scored. Luckily, power was to be had from some unlikely sources between the hallowed foul lines of Fenway. LaRue, Skippy, and Yadi all homered in Game 1, a game in which we had 13 baserunners. (I tried to calculate the odds of these three all homering in the same game, but my head nearly exploded, so I stopped for safety's sake.) In Game 2, Miles whacked one, as did the sluggers Glaus and Ankiel. We had 17 baserunners in the game.

I paid close attention during these games and I didn't see any great energy differential. I didn't a radiant glow from the Cardinal dugout in Fenway. Nor did anyone seem to be playing harder in Boston than in St. Louis vs. the Royals. The played with the energy that professional ballplayers intent on winning play with--both in St. Louis vs. K.C. and in Boston vs. the Sox.

Solo HR Percentage & the '08 Cardinals

bgh — Thu, 22 May 2008 22:57:23 -0000

I had the wonderful fortune of attending my first two Cardinal games in Busch III since 2006 this past weekend, on Friday and Saturday. After the bats took the night off Friday night , they awoke Saturday, whacking three baseballs over the wall , three solo blasts. Leaving the Stadium still jubilant over Ludwick's second solo HR, the walkoff shot that just cleared the fence, I thought to myself, "Man, we sure seem to hit a lot of solo shots."

I then thought, "I need to see if this observation is, in fact, true, or if I'm just projecting today's game onto the season."

Well, it is, in fact, true. I've done some admittedly not in-depth numbers crunching because I was curious about just how many MLB homers are of the solo variety and, the flip side of that coin, just how many plate more than just the batter. I only analyzed the data of the 2008, 2007, 2006, and 2005 seasons for home runs. The reason being that the league totals were so similar, I assumed that they would simply continue to be and I have to meet a friend for a beer here in a little bit. Let me begin with the totals for all of the bigs.

MLB Solo HR %

2005: 5,017 total HR / 2,842 solo HR / 56.65 solo HR %

2006: 5,386 total HR / 3,089 solo HR / 57.35 solo HR %

2007: 4,957 total HR / 2,812 solo HR / 56.73 solo HR %

2008: 1,285 total HR / 738 solo HR / 57.43 solo HR %*

*through the games completed on May 21

You see what I mean. It would appear that the league average for Solo HR % is somewhere between 56.5% and 57.5%. For the range between the MLB club with the lowest solo HR % to the club with the highest, here you go:

2005 Range: 43.32% to 66.67%

2006 Range: 50.95% to 62.41%

2007 Range: 50.27% to 65.54%

2008 Range: 39.13% to 73.33%*

*through the games completed on May 21

Not suprisingly, there is fluctuation and the young season allows for some very extreme outliers. The most extreme outlier above what one would expect is that of the Giants, who have hit a whopping 73.33% share of their home runs as solo. Number two behind San Fran? That's right, the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals have hit 43 homers this year, with 31 of those being solo shots, or, 72.09% of home runs struck by the Cardinals are solo.

There is no reason to suspect that this percentage share will not fall by at least 8 to 10% as the 2008 season plays out. This should help drive up those run totals, especially given out knack for getting on base.

Ghosts of Redbirds Past, 2006 World Champs Edition

bgh — Thu, 01 May 2008 12:54:00 -0000

Since today is May Day, lets take a trip down memory lane, looking at some of our former fan faves and how they are doing in jerseys without the Birds on Bat. Today's "Ghosts of Redbirds Past" focuses on the 2006 World Champions who are now playing elsewhere.

David Eckstein , 2006 World Series MVP

2008 Salary: $4.5M

.248 BA / .321 OBP / .307 SLG / .628 OPS / 11 SO / 4 XBH

A lot has been written about our current collection of slappy middle infielders, and justifiably so; however, the prototypical Cardinals slappy middle infielder is this man, who TLR once called the "toughest player" he had ever managed. Miles is a mere shadow of Eckstein because Eckstein has made a career of playing SS. Still, for the month of April, Izturis is likely the better value. Despite being on the DL (which is a value unto itself with him), he has managed a .350 OBP in the #9 hole. Their OPS is vitually identical (.628 to .623). Add to this the fact that Izturis is demonstrably better defensively and you get a better value for the month of April.

By the end of this season, gauging Izturis' value may be done as a stopgap between the Eckstein and Brendan Ryan eras (then again, maybe not). April could the most important month in assessing him. Of course, it is only May 1st and, naturally, the jury is still out.

Scott Rolen , Mortal Enemy of TLR, Former MV3 Member

2008 Salary: $11.625M

5 G / 19 AB / .316 BA / .381 SLG / .697 OPS / 1 HR / 4 2B

The key statistic is games played, and that is a total of five, due to his finger injury. That said, he's swinging the bat fairly well. Of course, Rolen doesn't lead the league in doubles, like Troy Glaus. Best value for the month of April is clearly Glaus.

Jimmy Edmonds , Former Majestic CF, Former MV3 Member

2008 Salary: $8M

.153 BA / .235 OBP / .222 SLG / .457 OPS / 1 HR / No range in OF

Writing this brings a tear to my eye. It makes me sad to think how far the Might Edmonds has fallen in skill. He was so good for so long for St. Louis that he deserved better; namely, a glorious farewell tour in Cardinal red last season. This could be Mo's best move as GM. I don't want to seem like I'm trashing Jimmy Baseball. I forked out for some StubHub tickets to the San Diego series by the Padres dugout, have made my "Thanks Jimmy" sign, and plan on wearing my Edmonds jersey t-shirt. Also, I have a photo of his 2004 NLCS catch on my wall.

Jeff Suppan, Cardinal Nation Postseason Folk Hero

2008 Salary: $8.25M

34.2 IP / 5.19 ERA / 5 HR allowed / 12 SO / 11 BB

Soup got shelled last night by the Cubbies (8 ER, 11 total runs, in 3 2/3). Who would you rather have? Soup at twice the cost of Lohse? Soup at $2M more than El Pineiro? While he will always have a place in Cardinal lore, letting him go, at his contract price, was a wise move by Jocketty.

Jeff Weaver, Former Cardinal, Mariner, Current Nashville Sound

2007 Stats: 170 IP / 5.76 ERA / 8 W / 14 L / 34 HR allowed

2008 Stats: Has yet to pitch

Wow, did Dream Weaver screw up by signing with Seattle. I mean, wow. Here's to hoping he comes to Des Moines to pitch vs. the I-Cubs so I can hold up a sign reading, "Thank you for your 2.43 ERA in the '06 playoffs!"

Ronnie Belliard, Web Gem Regular

2008 Salary: $1.6M

.214 BA / .323 OBP / .339 SLG / .662 OPS / 1 HR / 4 2B

Last season (.290/.332/.427), he seemed like the one that got away. Heck, I thought he was. And maybe he was since he is signed to less money on a shorter contract than what we are on the hook with for AK. Better 2007 value vs. AK. Better April 2008 value is AK.

Jason Marquis, Bipolar Betty

2008 Salary: $6.375M

4.45 ERA / 17 SO / 10 BB

He's been solid for Chicago, which is frustrating to me given all of the "Have fun watching Marquis" emails I sent out after his signing. He's been a more than adequate bottom-of-the-rotation starter for them. That said, I'm happy to be rid of him. It was time for him to break up with LaDunc and move to greener ivy, er, I mean, pastures.

Redbird Nicknames

bgh — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 15:01:40 -0000

This post is partially inspired by suggesting this as a Fanpost last weekend during the series in San Fran when brindled suggested a fanstpost after discussing what names Miles would have on his XFL jersey and then by Red Baron's advocacy for "Santa Glaus" as our new thirdbaseman's nickname.

I have been relucatant to make such a fanpost with nickname suggestions because it is so daunting a task. I firmly believe that player nicknames sprout organically from the soil of comments during games and grab hold as they prove accurate over the 162-game slog. Nonetheless, it is a lot of fun and my suggestions are by no means the end-all, be-all of such an exercise. I greatly look forward to the VEB community's ideas.

So, in honor of Vinca McMahon's aborted XFL and its jerseys featuring nicknames (may "He Hate Me" rest in peace), lets discuss what nicknames would be found on the flip side of the Birds-on-Bat if Bud Selig were displaced as MLB Commish by Vincent Kennedy McMahon.

via blog.wired.com

AARON MILES

He is penciled into the leadoff spot of this daunting fanpost because I feel his is teeball compared to many others on the roster. "Grit" seems to be the ideal nickname to supplant Miles on the back of his jersey. It sums up, in one word, why TLR insists that he be on the roster, as well as labeling the only plus skill set Miles has as a big leaguer. Plus, the man has scars on his back from fighting a gunman for control of his firearm during a hostage situation. Miles is grit and grit is Miles.

TODD WELLEMEYER

Goold's piece in the P-D on Friday's victory over San Fran, I believe, gives us Wellemeyer's nickname.

Whether it's the short towel he wears around the clubhouse or the business card he carries as a certified Kentucky Colonel, the Cardinals are used to Todd Wellemeyer being out of the ordinary.

You really need to read this from the Kentucky Secretary of State's webiste, too. Did you know that "Colonel" is the highest honor given to a Kentucky citizen? Or that The Honorable Order of Kentucky Colonels is "A great non-political brotherhood for the advancement of Kentucky and Kentuckians." You see, Wellemeyer is a member of this Honorable Order, along with another famous Kentucky Colonel.

I believe it only natural that Wellemeyer be "Colonel."

BRAD THOMPSON

I love "WonderBrad" as a nickname for him. I have piggybacked it a little. Last summer, I was in Europe (and I picked the right summer to miss the vast majority of Cardinal games). Well, when explaining to one of our German friends our nickname for Brad Thompson, my friend, who is fluent in German, said, "Das WunderBrad," or, "The WonderBrad." Now, every time I see Thompson's headshot on GameCast, I chuckle because a German-accented "Das WunderBrad" plays in the Soundtrack of My Life. Can you imagine him dancing in a European discotech to bad techno and introducing himself to German girls as "Das WunderBrad?" I digress...

RICO WASHINGTON

Is it "Suave" or "Uncle Rico?"

JASON LARUE

Where to begin? Given his forbidden hair, ape drape, t-bird tail, or, just ol' mullet, what is the best option. "Biz N Front?" Since the name would be viewed from the back, it would compliment the easily visible "party in the back" portion of LaRue's hairdo. Or, should we try something all-encompassing, like, say, "Lawrence," harkening to the dry-walling construction worker neighbor from Office Space, a character that LaRue plainly looks up to and maybe even is intentionally emulating.

RYAN FRANKLIN

I nominate "Franklinstein," and tip my cap to the Red Baron, who clearly puts a great deal of thought into this. What's more, with his PED use, it's even more fitting.

BRENDAN RYAN

My suggest is "Nuke." He plays the infield the way that Ebby Calvin LaLoosh pitched: hard and all over the place. Can't you picture Ryan breathing through his eyelids, wearing a garter belt underneath his uniform, abstaining from sex to keep a streak alive, and generally carrying on conversations with Miles in the vein of LaLoosh and Crash conversations?

RICK ANKIEL

"The Natural," "Hobbs," "'Ammerin' Ank," all have been used. Watching him play, I always think of Roy Hobbs.

CESAR IZTURIS

Mendoza the Second, or, "Mendoza II" is my suggestion. As his walk rate tumbles back to career norms and reveals his true offensive capabilities, we are left to wonder whether or not his batting average will fall on the over- or under-side of the mythical "Mendoza Line."

CHRIS DUNCAN

"Lil' Dunc," "Dunc the Yunger," "Lumberjack," and more have been thrown out. I like "Lumberjack," especially given his phenomenal player beard in 2006 coupled with his giant dip of chew. (The preceeding link actually shows some tobacco spit intermingled with his beard.) "Chaw" also comes to mind: "a wad of something chewable, such as tobacco." For some reason, his photograph on Gamecast this season makes me think of him as a "Chaw"...

SKIP SCHUMAKER

Since his real name is "Jared," it seems that "Skip" wins. I kind of like "Skippy" myself, given his small-dog like appearance. "Cobbler" maybe?

RYAN LUDWICK

"Lud" or "Luds" seems to be a favorite of VEB.

ADAM KENNEDY

AK 87? (He played in 87 games last year.) AFK? Dead Kennedy? "Adam Kennedy of Anaheim?" Of course, his bat doesn't look quite so dead thus far this season.

KYLE MCCLELLAN

"Nails?" "McNails?" "Golden Arches?"

ANTHONY REYES

"Love/Hate" would seem to be the common ground for the VEB community. "He Hates Me?"

KYLE LOHSE

"Hired Gun." Kyle "The Coup" Lohse. "Best Value."

BRADEN LOOPER

Braden "The Convert" Looper. "Converted" Braden Looper. "The Braden Looper Experiment."

MATT CLEMENT

"Scrap Heap '08". "Junker." "Fix'r Up."

MARK MULDER

"Seventh-Best, or, Sixth-Best?" "Has-Been." "Not Haren."

RANDY FLORES

LOOGY I.

RON VILLONE

LOOGY II.

RUSS SPRINGER

"One More Year." "Proven Vet." "Still Got It." "Cal Eldred."

KELVIM JIMENEZ

"Has Options."

BRIAN BARTON

"Dreads," "Rule 5-er," Brian "Brains" Barton, "Intelligentsia."

ADAM WAINWRIGHT

His nickname is "Wagonmaker."

ALBERT PUJOLS

He has quite a few. "El Hombre" would look cool across his jersey back.

TROY GLAUS

"Santa Glaus" has been kicked around. So were a few others. I defer.

JASON ISRINGHAUSEN

Obviously, "Izzy" is Izzy's nickname.

YADIER MOLINA

"Yadi."

CHRIS CARPENTER

"Carp" or "Ace."

TONY LA RUSSA

"Esquire," which is what attorneys put after their name. "Mad Scientist." "Genius."

DAVE DUNCAN

"The Resurrector." "Crotchetty."

Wagonmaker the Workhorse

bgh — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 12:39:26 -0000

I mean this to be a critique of TLR's strategic decision to keep Wainwright in the game, measured by reason and supported with statistical analysis and observation. Please feel free to critique and comment. I don't mean to overly piggyback LB--this Fanpost was half done when he posted for the day. Since he summed up far better than I could've the relief situation, I quoted that post below. (LB, I hope you don't mind.)

"Why does La Russa still have Wagonmaker in the game? 105...106...107...Is he honoring Dusy Baker's return to Chicago by unnecessarily extending the pitch count of our best, young pitcher? 108...109...110..."

So was my inner-monologue last night during Wainwright's 115-pitch outing.

I raised an eyebrow when Wainwright came out for 8th, likely because I am still over-sensitive to him as a reliever-turned-starter, which is silly since he had always been a starter before 2006 and got better as a starter as the 2007 season progressed (unlike other relievers-turned-starters--Looper & Wellemeyer--who showed physical hiccups during their shift). Nevermind the fact that his 2007 total IP of 202 was twenty more than the previous high of his professional career of 182 IP.

Last season, however, he threw sixteen games of over 100 pitches, breaking the 110-pitch mark on six of those occasions and throwing over 120 pitches once (one of two complete games tossed by a Cardinal starter, which he loss vs. the Dodgers when he surrendered 2 runs in the 9th to lose). What's more, Wainwright threw over 100 pitches in three of his first four starts of the 2007 season, his inaugural as a penned in member of the St. Louis starting rotation. Here is the percentage breakdown by pitch total of his 32 '07 starts: 70-79: 1 start (3.13%); 80-89: 7 starts (21.88%); 90-99: 9 starts (28.13%); 100-109: 9 starts (28.13%); 110-119: 5 starts (15.63%); 120+: 1 start (3.13%). Throwing over 110 pitches was not abnormal last season. And, after all, he did throw 107 pitches against Washington in his first official start this season so he is on pace to throw over 100 pitches in three of his first four starts this April, as in last.

If Wagonmaker went this deep into pitch counts on a fairly regular basis last season, then why was I nervous?

In the seventh inning, Wainwright's fastball was sitting about 88-90 and hitting 91 on Gamecast. (Since I wasn't recording what the T.V. gun was reading, I'm using Gamecast since all pitch radar readings are relative.) This, compared to the middle innings, during which, according to GameCast, Wainwright was fluctuating between 90 and 92 while popping 93 mph. On his fastballs, his velocity was down.

Not surprisingly, Wagonmaker's control waned as his pitch count grew. For the game, he threw 115 pitches with 71 of those for strikes which leaves us with 44 balls to account for over 7 2/3 innings, or, 38.25% of his pitches. Through five innings, Wainwright's percentage of pitches thrown that were out of the strikezone was 31.25% while in the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings, it was 47.05%. Not surprisingly, he threw 20 pitches for balls in the first five innings to 24 pitches for balls in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings. Not surprising, his labors drove up his overall pitch count as well. Wainwright threw 64 pitches in innings one through five and 51 pitches in his final 2 2/3 innings thrown. Wainwright began to tire and his control began to slip in his final two full innings, which foretold a coming jam in the eighth, which came to fruition.

The numbers demonstrate what anyone's eyes could tell them: Wainwright was tiring.

Wainwright is a tough competitor and ground his way to two outs, to his credit, out of the heart of Milwaukee's order, but that doesn't make it a good call to keep him in. Neither does escaping the inning unscathed. Leaving Wainwright in too long paved the way for an incredibly dangerous situation that threatened to undue a very convincing win for the Cardinals. Randy Flores, who has been worthy of praise so far this early season, pitch to Prince Fielder, he of the 50 HR and and 119 RBI last season, as the tying run at the plate was a gamble of Russian Roulette proportions.

I defer to LB's analysis:

i disagreed w/ the decision to send wainwright back out there in the 8th, and particularly the decision to let him face ryan braun as the potential tying run. adam’s location was way off that inning; he went to 3 balls on the leadoff man before retiring him, then gave up a hit and a walk; when braun stepped in wainwright was at 113 pitches for the game and 19 for the inning. fortunately, it isn’t necessary to throw braun a strike (he has 0 walks this season); he chased a fastball in off the plate and got himself out. tony must not have liked his options; mcclellan was unavailable, and apparently the overused franklin needed the night off too (at least, i never saw him warming up). that left reyes and thompson as the only options. against the top of the order, tony trusted adam more; adam justified the faith.

In the end, TLR's gamble paid off in spades. The Cards wiggled their way out of trouble and went on to win the game, even with Izzy's flair for the dramatics. Nonetheless, this strategic gamble could have ended up very differently and squandered an otherwise dominate performance by the Redbirds.

Lack of Production Behind Pujols

bgh — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 16:08:55 -0000

To piggyback on Red Baron's post from this morning, which I found to be insightful and thought-provoking, I thought I'd do a quick analysis of the post-Pujols batting order production. The normal early season caveat of *small sample size* applies. We aren't even to game #10, but it is still indicative of there being little consequence to teams who decided to pitch around Pujols in this very, very young 2008 season.

The overall production for the No. 4 Hole is not very good:

27 AB / .222 BA / .333 OBP / .296 SLG / .630 OPS / 2 2B / 0 HR / 3 RBI

While placing us in the middle of the pack relative to other clubs, it is reminiscent of 2007, when we had the worst cleanup production (last in Slugging Percentage, last in Batting Average, fifth-to-last in HR, 20th in RBI) in all of Major League Baseball:

627 AB / .246 BA / .320 OBP / .386 SLG / .706 OPS / 24 2B / 20 HR / 103 RBI

However, the No. 5 Hole has been abusing the baseball in early going of this season:

31 AB / .323. BA / .364 OBP / .613 SLG / .977 OPS / 4 2B / 1 HR / 6 RBI

This is hopefully an indicator of the rest of this season as it is markedly better than the anemic production the No. 5 Hole gave us in 2007, when Cardinal No. 5 hitters ranked last in MLB in Batting Average, seventh to last in OBP, last in MLB in Slugging Percentage, last in HR (with 10), and fifth to last in RBI.

621 AB / .246 BA / .317 OBP / .357 SLG / .675 OPS / 35 2B / 10 HR / 81 RBI

Finding a viable power threat in the cleanup hole is imperative for the Cards leveraging Albert Pujols' offensive skills to a maximum this season. Whether it be Ankiel or Duncan or a player-to-be-named later.

"Who the @#&% is Tabaka?"

bgh — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 13:51:07 -0000

From Bernie's column today in the P-D:

La Russa is willing to give the baseball to anyone — well, except maybe Anthony Reyes. Look for Jeff Tabaka to be signed any day now.

"Who the @#&% is Tabaka?"

Undoubtedly, many of you recall Jeff Tabaka. For those of you do not, allow me to take you back from the tragic September of 2001, during which the Astros and Cardinals fought an amazing battle over the N.L. Central crown. In the wake of the terrorist attacks of September 11, Commissioner Selig cancelled MLB games, a sensitive act that extended the baseball season into October and the incredibly dramatic playoffs into November. Backtracking to the conclusion of the regular season, where the Cardinals and Astros went into the final series of the year, hosted by the Cardinals, neck-and-neck in the N.L. Central race. Given the uniquely dramatic backdrop, my dad and I secured tickets (even if it was somewhat less dramatic since the "loser" would easily win the Wild Card).

The Cardinals came into the series one game up in the Central Divison. Game 1 on Oct. 5 pitted Woody Williams vs. Wade Miller in a tremendous pitchers duel. This was when Woody Williams the uber-competitive bulldog was at his zenith and that cool St. Louis evening was no exception. Not only did Woody throw seven innings without surrendering a run, he went 1-for-2 at the plate and scored the lone run of the game up until his departure from it, leaving with the Redbirds up 1-0. Needless to say, the electricity in Busch Stadium was playoffs in caliber.

After seven innings, TLR removed Woody, who did everything one could possibly ask of a starting pitchers. Who does TLR summon from the bullpen? Jeff Tabaka. He brings in Jeff Tabaka for the eighth inning. There was a palpable confusion in the crowd. Suddenly, from somewhere over my left should I heard a deep, thundering voice exclaim in a slightly slurred fashion, "Tabaka!? Who the @#&% is Tabaka?!" This perfectly summed up the thoughts of every red-clad St. Louis fan in the stadium. Tabaka promptly gave up a homerun to Lance Berkman, which incensed the near-capacity crowd.

Tabaka was promptly yanked once Berkman rounded the bases. Luther Hackman retired the 'Stros in the eight, and we entered the ninth inning, tied 1-1. Gene Stechschulte came in to surrender the losing run in the ninth, but Cardinal Nation had decided on its scapegoats: TLR & Tabaka. TLR for bringing in Tabaka with a one-run lead in the eighth inning of the third-to-last game of a season at a point where the Cards had a one-game lead and were facing the second place team. And Tabaka for not possessing pitching skill.

As we left Busch Stadium II, a little old lady asked her husband, "Who the @#&% is Tabaka?"

Epilogue

The Cards won on Saturday and lost on Sunday, giving way to tie for the N.L. Central crown (depending on who you ask) with the Cards actually receiving the Wild Card bid and a trip to Arizona for one of the great Divisional Playoff Series of the era.

Jeff Tabaka never pitched in the big leagues again.

Win/Loss Record and the 2-14 "Slog"

bgh — Sat, 22 Mar 2008 19:47:37 -0000

Is there a more arbitrary barometer for measuring a pitcher's skill and performance than his win/loss record? Reading Rule 10.17 governing the determination of a winning and losing pitcher by the official scorekeeper is a mind-numbing if it were so arbitrary as to be outrageous.

The Rule begins with section (a):

The official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher that pitcher whose team assumes a lead while such pitcher is in the game, or during the inning on offense in which such pitcher is removed from the game, and does not relinquish such lead

...unless, that pitcher is a starting pitcher, then section (b) applies, and the starter must have pitched five innings to receive a win.

But, it is the intent of this section that a relief pitcher not be deemed the "winning pitcher" unless he pitched "...at least one complete inning or pitch when a crucial out is made, within the context of the game (including the score), in order to be credited as the winning pitcher."

TIED GAMES

Whenever the score is tied, the game becomes a new contest insofar as the winning pitcher is concerned. Once the opposing team assumes the lead, all pitchers who have pitched up to that point and have been replaced are excluded from being credited with the victory.

So a starter can throw six innings of shutout baseball, but if a relief pitcher is in the game the following inning, and gives up a three-run homerun only to remain in the lineup for the start of his team's offensive inning, when they score, say, five runs, the relief pitcher who gave up three runs in one inning is the winning pitcher.

That is, unless the scorekeeper deems him "ineffective" and a subsequent pitcher more effective...

BOOKENDED "EFFECTIVE PITCHERS"

The official scorer shall not credit as the winning pitcher a relief pitcher who is ineffective in a brief appearance, when at least one succeeding relief pitcher pitches effectively in helping his team maintain its lead. In such a case, the official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher the succeeding relief pitcher who was most effective, in the judgment of the official scorer.

"MOST EFFECTIVE" RELIEF PITCHER

When determining the "most effective" relief pitcher, the comment to Rule 10.17 of the MLB Official Rules, the scorekeeper "should consider the number of runs, earned runs and base runners given up by each relief pitcher and the context of the game at the time of each relief pitcher’s appearance." But, "[i]f two or more relief pitchers were similarly effective, the official scorer should give the presumption to the earlier pitcher as the winning pitcher."

OFFENSE

This is to say nothing about how it is all relative to your team's offensive output on a given day. You could throw nine innings, give up one run, and lose if your team is shutout while you could throw five innings, give up six runs and win if your team hits on that given day.

So, the arbitrariness of the Win/Loss Record is extended as it is relative to the scorekeeper, subsequent relief performance, and, most importantly, your team's bats on that particular day.

ANTHONY REYES' 2007 RECORD: START-BY-START

By all accounts, Anthony Reyes had a lackluster 2007 as a starter, and what seems to me to be the most oft-cited statstic is his win/loss record for the year. However, he did not pitch as badly as his record of 2-14 would suggest. In fact, his first seven starts, he surrendered 22 ER in 39 IP while the team put up 8 runs total for those seven games in their entirety and just 4 runs while Reyes was on the ound. As noted above, the amount of runs your offense scores for you while a pitcher is in the game goes a long way toward his win/loss record. Well, the Cards' bats gave him 4 runs in 22 innings, which is next-to-nothing.

Apr. 7 vs. Houston: 5 IP, 3 ER Decision: Loss Record: 0-1

Apr. 16 vs. Pittsburgh: 5 IP, 3 ER Decision: Loss Record: 0-2

Apr. 21 vs. Chicago: 6 IP, 4 ER Decision: Loss Record: 0-3

Apr. 27 vs. Chicago: 6 IP, 4 ER Decision: Loss Record: 0-4

May 2 vs. Milwaukee: 6 IP, 3 ER Decision: Loss Record: 0-5

May 7 vs. Colorado: 6 IP, 2 ER Decision: No Decision Record: 0-5

May 13 vs. San Diego: 5 IP, 3 ER Decision: Loss Record: 0-6

On May 19 and 25, Reyes gave up 7 ER and 5 ER respectively, yet the team only lost each game by a single run. The Fates frowned upon him and he was given two losses, even though against Detroit on May 19, the team made up the seven-run deficit. Ironically, Wellemeyer gave up the run that was the margin of victory for the Tigers. St. Louis scored two runs in the 9th inning that would have tied the game. (I bring this up to point out the arbitrariness of the allocation of wins and losses. Both Reyes and Wellemeyer contributed to the run total that lost the game by a single run.)

June 17 vs. Oakland: 5 IP, 5 ER Decision: No Decision Record: 0-7

The Cards put up 10 runs and win the game 10-6. Reyes pitched worse than he did in each of his first seven games, through which he was 0-6, yet escapes without a blemish to his win/loss record. He gets lit up by the Phils in Philly for another loss and the Cards head to Shea...

June 27 vs. New York Mets: 5 IP, 2 ER Decision: Loss Record: 0-10

The Cards get shut out 2-0 by Tom Glavine in a rain delay-shortened game that was called after five and a half innings. His reward is being sent back to AAA Memphis and does not start until July 28...

July 28 vs. Milwaukee: 6 IP, 2 ER Decision: Win Record: 1-10

His first "win" of the season on the back of a strong performance that is reminiscent of his first seven starts of the year.

Aug. 2 vs. Pittsburgh: 5 IP, 3 ER Decision: No Decision Record: 1-10

Reyes leaves in a game tied 3-3 and the Cards end up losing in the bottom of the 11th with Thompson giving up an unearned run.

Aug. 7 vs. San Diego: 7 IP, 1 ER Decision: Loss Record: 1-11

Reyes leaves after seven down 1-0, but the Cards are the victims of a five-hit shutout (six innings of which by Peavy) and Izzy surrenders three in the top of the ninth to put the game out of reach for the Cards in the bottom of the ninth.

Aug. 12 vs. L.A.: 6 IP, 2 ER Decision: Win Record: 2-11

The Cards stomp the Dodgers 11-2, giving Reyes more than enough offense to win after surrendering two runs over six innings.

Aug. 18 vs. Chicago: 6 IP, 5 ER Decision: Loss Record: 2-12

Aug. 23 vs. Florida: 5 IP, 0 ER Decision: Loss Record: 2-13

A loss that brings home the absurdity of the winner/loser determination. The run need not be "earned," it need merely be scored to make a pitcher the losing hurler. Reyes surrenders four runs, none earned, and is the losing pitcher of record. The rules' arbitrariness is brought home the following game vs. Cincy as well...

Aug. 31 vs. Cincinatti: 1 IP, 4 ER Decision: No Decision Record: 2-13

This was the beginning of a precipitous decline at the end of the season for Reyes. Counting the Aug. 31 game vs. the Reds, over his last four games, he pitched only 7.2 innings and surrendered a whopping 13 runs, shooting his ERA from 5.33 to 6.04 for the year. The effect on his record was not as great because of his work in relief for two of the games.

In the 20 games that Reyes started, the Cardinals offense plated a grand total 36 runs while Reyes was in the game. And of those 36 runs, 16 of them came in two starts. If leaving a game with a lead is the most important factor in scoring a "win" with the scorekeeper, then Reyes was severely handicapped by his teammates' offensive (lack of) assistance, which averages out to 1.8 runs/game during the innings that Reyes was the pitcher. The Cardinals were shut out 8 of the 20 games that Reyes started. So, in 40% of his starts, Reyes received no run support--none, zip, zilch, notta.

So, when reporters call his 2-14 season a "slog" it is important to keep in mind that Reyes could have just as easily been 5-0, 6-1, or even 3-3 after his first seven starts. Nonetheless, he was 0-6 despite never giving up more than four runs in his first seven starts while never throwing fewer than five innings. In addition, he lost one game where he gave up a single earned run and the team's defense delivered him a loss in a game where he didn't surrender a single earned run. Against the Mets, he gave up only two runs and, as if to show that luck was entirely not on his side in '07, the game was rained out after 5 and a half innings, giving him the "loss."

His cold, hard 2007 stats are nothing to tout, I realize. But, if we are looking for reasons to be optimistic, there are a few: a 5.7 EqSO9 being one and a 74/43 SO/BB ratio is another. However, Cards fans hope to see him up in St. Louis should be concerned at his 36.2% groundball percentage (Thompson's was 50.8% last year, which was his career low). The greatest reason for concern is his implosion down the stretch, which sticks more vividly in one's mind than his okay start to the year (and should, especially when projecting forward). Nonetheless, his year was no as bad as some say, especially since win/loss record is deflating due to rather poor offensive support.

Rasmus, Mather, Parisi, Johnson, and Motte sent to AAA

bgh — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 21:29:05 -0000

So the P-D reports. Nearly every one of these moves was forecasted in Leach's stlcardinals.com piece on the roster.

This list is not at all a surprise. Everyone assumed that Rasmus would start the season in Memphis.

Here is what Leach prognosticated:

Colby Rasmus has played extremely well, but Rasmus' playing time has dwindled recently. Additionally, the Cardinals have a well-established unofficial rule that players with options -- or, in Rasmus' case, who are not even on the 40-man roster -- lose all ties.

Leach also predicted that Mather would head down to Memphis in favor of Ryan.

In something of a surprise, the last battle shaped up to be between Ryan and Joe Mather, who emerged as one of the best stories in camp. Mather has opened plenty of eyes and played well, but his furious pace at the plate has slowed lately. With the team preferring four middle infielders rather than three, Mather will probably head to Triple-A Memphis to start the year.

This establishes that Ryan will make the Big Club and be wearing Cardinals-On-Bats come April (rather than mere Redbirds-On-Bats). Since TLR went out of his way to point out that Ryan would not be handed a roster spot, it seems that Ryan earned it. Which he certainly did offensively, posting a .278 BA / .366 OBP / .389 SLG / .765 OPS. It makes one wonder if TLR is comfortable with his OF options, satisfied with Ryan as a substitute 3B, and more worried about Izturis than he lets on in the media.

As for Mather, he put together an impressive Spring with his .289 BA / .386 OBP / .526 SLG / .912 OPS, a line that is reminiscent of Speez's '06 line. He has made "a 'big' impression" and we may yet see him up in St. Louis this season if need dictates.

MEANWHILE, ON THE IZTURIS FRONT...

The Cardinals' Opening Day starting SS went 0-for-2 with another error, giving him two more fielding errors than he has hits this spring and dropping his Spring Training BA to .139 and his OPS to .434. This line is scarily similar to another washed-up, would-be fix 'er up middle infielder that washed out in Spring Training, Junior Spivey.

'06 Spivey: Age 31 / 68 AB / .147 BA / .247 OBP / .176 SLG / .423 OPS

'08 Izturis: Age 28 / 36 AB / .139 BA / .184 OBP / .250 SLG / .434 OPS

The offensive statistics lines are scary and make one wonder why on earth TLR was quick to accept that Spivey was washed up yet in no way appears ready to cut bait on Izturis.

At least Ryan will be in St. Louis on Opening Day.

TLR Nostalgia and Izturis

bgh — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 19:21:37 -0000

A couple of days ago, Gordo had a very interesting piece on the middle infield of the Cards, specifically TLR's views on Izturis and Kennedy. Much panned on this site (and I would imagine throughout the known baseball world), the Izturis signing has been made all the more utterly incomprehensible to the rationally-minded Cardinal fan over the course of Spring Training. At least to those of us living in the here and now, but it seems that TLR is not, at least when it comes to Izturis.

Gordo writes that TLR "...remains a big Izturis fan, based largely on what he saw earlier in Cesar’s career." Apparently, this is why "...La Russa isn’t sweating Izturis’ poor offensive and defensive start this spring." But, this is why Cardinal fans are sweating the Izturis signing, and sweating .50 caliber machine gun bullets since the start of Spring Training.

THE GLOVE OF IZTURIS

TLR is still bullish on Izturis' glove:

"You just watch, he’s a real good looking fielder," La Russa said. "He has great, quiet hands. He has an accurate arm. He’s very quick. Picks a ball up like it’s nothing. Very impressive.

"I liked him from the first time I saw him with the Dodgers. He is really fun to watch catch the ball.

It has been widely reported (by VEB community members, Goold, and friends of mine who have been to games at Spring Training) that Izturis' hands have been anything but great and quite loud this spring. He has made 5 errors in 69 spring innings, which is the highest error total of all players reporting to MLB camp. It has also been suggested by VEB posters and some of my friends who made the trip to FLA for Spring Training that, has they been the official scorekeeper, Izturis would have a few more errors to his name.

For comparison, the immobile, should-be-3B Miguel Tejada has made 4 errors and has a .862 fielding percentage in Spring Training, but at least he is still a relatively threatening offensive producer, even if the sun long ago set on his ability to pass as marginal defensive SS.

I know, I know; it is a small sample size. But, TLR's mind operates in small sample sizes, as evidenced by his religious use of past performance to dictate who starts against which pitchers. Yet, he is very forgiving of Izturis' lackluster defense so far this spring.

THE LEGS OF IZTURIS

TLR also seems to like Izturis' legs:

"He’s also shown, by the way, good legs. That’s an important part of the game...The legs that we have seen so far would be a plus for us. He can steal some bases and he can go from first to third as well as anybody."

Maybe, he once had "good legs." Juan Encarnacion once did, too, stealing 33 bases in 1999. Juan then stole 21 in 2002 between the Reds and Marlins and 19 in 2003 with the Marlins. In 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007, he managed just 19 SB combined. So it is with Izturis, who stole 25 bases in 2004, a career high. In the three seasons since that career year, he has never stolen more than 8 bases and has totalled a mere 12 steals combined.

Just out of curiousity, I looked at Baseball Prospectus' new baserunning metric, which measures the ability of a player to take an extra base, and Izturis isn't any better at it than Albert Pujols. (Sorry, I can't find this online. If you can, please link to it!) Yet, you don't hear TLR gushing about El Hombre's legs.

Perhaps deteriorating leg health is to blame? TLR explains:

"I just talked to him today...He’s had, twice in his career, hamstring issues. He had a little one in LA and a big one in Chicago."

An aging player with a history of hamstring injuries probably isn't the best bet to maintain or revive his former fielding range or baserunning skills. Curiously, however, TLR sees this history of injury as reason to be optimistic about Izturis in 2008.

IZTURIS AT THE PLATE

TLR also touts the new Cardinal SS's offensive skills:

"Offensively, he hasn’t had a big hitting spurt or anything like that, but he’s putting the ball in play. He’s working...He’s a very useful offensive player. He can do anything. He can put the ball in play, bunt."

Frankly, this sounds like the sort of standard one would set for an 8 year-old Little Leaguer, not an everyday Big Leaguer. If this quote were taken out of context, it would sound like a manager's assessment of a National League pitcher's offensive contribution: "He can bunt and is putting the ball in play."

Luckily for Izturis, this is about the only standard he can play up to and hope to make a roster, given his Spring Training. In 32 AB, the most of any Cardinal at SS this spring, he has posted this abysmal line:

4 H / 0 HR / 0 RBI / 3 SO / 2 BB/ .125 BA / .176 OBP / .188 SLG / .364 OPS

Again, this is a small sample size. It is also worth pointing out that Izturis has more errors (5) than hits (4) in 32 spring games. I am not going to completely re-hash Bernie's thoroughly researched column on how Izturis was, stastically, the worst offensive player in Major League Baseball one season ago. But, since I can't really llink to it because it resides in the $2.95/article St. Louis Post-Dispatch archives, I'll give you a brief rundown. But, it is only slightly better than what one would predict from the offensively inept former Pirate whose 2007 numbers, like his Spring Training stats, were among the worst in all of MLB and substantially worse than the production of the '07 SS platoon.

Izturis' EqA has not been above .226 in the last three seasons. How does this breakdown? His BA over that time period has not been above .276 (and that was over 123 AB in Pittsburgh); his OBP has not been over .310; Izturis has not slugged over .333; he hasn't drove in more than 31 runs. His VORP for 2005, 2006, and 2007 goes like this: -4.4 in '05, -4.4 (-2.5 in AAA) in '06 for LA, -4.6 in '06 for CHI, -4.2 in '07 for CHI, -2.5 in '07 for PIT. (His full statistics can be perused here.)

In short, Izturis is a horrendous offensive player who is getting worse. His baserunning skills are not any better than Albert Pujols' and are likely getting worse due to aging and injury history. His fielding, once great, is falling down to earth, making him, at best, average, which makes him the type of player that no MLB team could realistically put on their roster, let alone make their everyday SS. It makes one wonder how John Mozeliak can bring himself to make bizarre assertions, like the one he made during the STL P-D chat this last week, that Izturis the Cardinals organization "firmly believes that Izturis will make [the Cardinals] stronger up the middle."

His offense has been worse than D'Angelo Jimenez, who has justifiably just been put "on notice" by TLR that his days are numbered if he doesn't pick it up with quotes that could just as easily be referencing Izturis but bizarrely are not.

"He's a savvy player, but he needs to demonstrate it all the time, especially when he's trying to make an impression on an organization," the Cardinals' manager said.

"He has flashes of being a legitimate major leaguer and he shows flashes when he's struggling his (tail) off."

TLR seems poised to cut Jimenez, which is perfectly acceptable, yet name Izturis the starting SS despite being blown out of the water this spring offensively by Brendan Ryan (even if Ryan hasn't exactly set the world on fire) while Ryan also at least matches Izturis with the glove, an area in which Izturis is supposed to be far superior to Ryan. We can get into discussions about the Bo Hart-esque small sample size and how that contributed to his '07 success as well as how he might be exposed as an everyday SS in '08. That does not bely the fact that an exposed Ryan would be as good as an Izturis playing to his full potential as evidenced by 2,751 career Major League AB. It is also worth mentioning that Ryan is significantly cheaper with Izturis slated to make $2.85M this year. Does anyone really believe that Ryan can't put up a .295 OBP for a little more than 1/3 the cost of Izturis?

Nonetheless, a summer of Cesar Izturis seems to be the fate of Cardinal Nation.