Sure, the team mustache thing is beautiful in and of itself, but I really wondered what kind of effect we could expect on the field.

Unfortunately, few researchers have been bold enough to consider the mustache when constructing advanced metrics.  Voros McCracken went so far as to suggest mustaches skewed other data when he created MIPS, or Mustache Independent Pitching Statistics.

But setting aside the empirical, the anecdotal evidence is overwhelming.

Rollie Fingers: Mustache
Willie Stargell: Mustache
Cap Anson: Racist Mustache

Further, my own attempts to reverse engineer Nate Silver's PECOTA system suggest that mustaches play a major role in those projections.  The copstache / pornstache often indicates improved command of the strike zone, while the toothbrush can signal decreased playing time due to ineffectiveness or injury.  It is harder to determine the effects of the Handlebar, the Imperial, the Hungarian and the Chevron.

Good news for Colby Rasmus - the Peach Fuzz often accompanies a sustained offensive surge and/or new, strange feelings about girls.

I hope to see more research done in this important field.  Tracking of mustache related performance seems like a natural for FanGraphs, though my letters suggesting such have neither been acknowledged nor returned.  In the meantime, kudos to those Cardinals who are sporting mustaches, and may all right-thinking fans do the same (unless, like me, you just don't look very good with one).

Friends, the era of The Walrus is upon us.  In his last 10, he's hitting .447, bringing his AAA numbers into the ridiculous range he's put up at every other level.  Also: He has an awesome nickname.  DeRosa was a nice addition, but we've got more holes to fill.  The best way to fill one of those holes is with Brett Wallace, and that's not a fat joke.

What better options do we have?  Joe Thurston's been picked off twice just as I've been typing this post.  Khalil Greene is going to be back and effective about the same time as Mark Prior.

I say, we bring him up and let him play every day for a few weeks.  DeRosa (assuming he's not broken) plays more 2B than OF, Skip plays a little 2B but spends more time spelling the underperforming corner outfielders.  It's taken Wallace a couple weeks to find his stroke at every level, but once he's found it, KAPOW!

If Wallace really has a hard time, he goes back down and you're no worse than you were before.  If he starts to hit, he's a huge asset.  Even if Glaus comes back, Wallace could get a shot in left if our outfield is still an offensive black hole.  You know Tony would do it.  Hell, Tony started Dennys Reyes in left yesterday, just to increase his versatility.
Walrus, Walrus, Walrus...

Like many of you, I've spent much time lately wondering one thing: Is there any way they can sustain this?  So even with only 10% of the season past and much of what we've seen likely aberration, I decided to look at which hitters are outperforming their projections and by just how much.

I came to two conclusions: Almost everybody's beating their projections, but there is some reason to hope it will continue.

PECOTA expected the Cards to win 75 games with an AVG/OBP/SLG line of .257/.328/.405.  To date, their actual line has been .277/.364/.437.  This seems to coincide with most observations - they're doing a good job of getting on base, executing well once they do, but not necessarily mashing the ball.

For a one-stop snapshot of individual performances, I looked at actual vs. PECOTA projected EQA.  The advantage is that PECOTA provides not only a projected number, but intervals above and below that number.

Six Cardinal hitters are currently above their 90% EQA projection: Pujols, Ludwick, Barton, Ankiel, Schumaker and Izturis.  Also hitting above their projections are Duncan, at over 75%, and Molina and Kennedy, at over 60%.

Meanwhile, Glaus and Miles are grossly below their projections - both under 10%.

These numbers support the notion that we're in for a correction, with 7 players dramatically outperforming their projections and only two dramatically underperforming.  Production above 90% or below 10% is likely unsustainable, and the aggregate would be an overall decline.  So that's the quantified bad news.

But one interesting trend is also clear - the relative levels of performance are almost directly correlated to age, with all of our super performers under 30.  This makes me hopeful that, while I don't expect them to stay so far above their projections, there's legitimate reason to think guys like Ludwick, Barton and Ankiel at least can beat expectations.  Put another way, I'm more optimistic with these guys off to a great start than I would be were it Kennedy, Glaus, Juan Gonzalez, etc.

It's probably inevitable that the team falls off this pace, but I'm curious what others have seen that suggests certain guys may be on pace to better our collective expectations.

Mr. Gotay was placed on waivers by the Mets, and given our quagmire in the middle infield, I hope the front office at least puts in a claim on him.

At 25, he's still young-ish, and last season posted career highs in AVG (.295), OBP (.351) and SLG (.421).  All but the slugging were above league average, and the slugging was damn close.

Gotay's not likely to become an All-Star or anything, but I think he looks like a league average player, and seems likely to sustain that for at least a few years.  It's not sexy, but if we can pickup a guy like this, even if it means eating Kennedy's contract, it seems like a good move to me.

It seems a near-consensus that we need to play for '08 and beyond.  Folks (including myself) are clamoring for an Ankiel call-up, and Bernie at the PD wants to call-up Ank, Perez, Hoffpauir, and anyone else he could name off the top of his head.

So I jumped into the Baseball Reference time machine to look for a Cardinals team in similar circumstances and see how they spent the last few months of the season.  I settled on the '88 squad as they were just off a World Series, never spent a day in first place, and were saddled with a few under-performing veterans (Horner, Herr).

Down the stretch, that team gave a look to a number of young players who would go on to make significant contributions to the organization.  Tom Pagnozzi (25), Luis Alicea (22) and Jose Oquendo (24) all got their first chances to start on a regular basis.  Ken Hill (22) also made his first major league start.

They also traded Tommy Herr (32) for Tom Brunansky (27), and released Bob Horner.

The '07 Cardinals probably can't unload their aging veterans as successfully, but I hope the team makes an effort to get a look at as much young talent as possible.  Come roster expansions, we need to answer questions like Ankiel and Ryan.  We need to find out if they're legitimate options for '08 or just contingency plans.  

There are sophisticated models for predicting major league performance, but there's still value in throwing a few in the deep end and seeing who swims.  It's obvious we need to acquire a lot of parts in the off-season, so the best thing we can do from here on out is itemize what we already have.

And sure, '88 was the beginning of one of the more futile periods in Cardinal history, but I stand by the comparison.

BP just posted this team and individual baserunning data, and it suggests another area where the Cardinals are struggling.

St. Louis ranks third-to-last in Equivalent Runs via baserunning, having given up nearly eight runs on the base paths.  Nearly all of that comes in the stolen base dept., where we rank second-to-last in runs squandered.  The only area where we've added EQR via baserunning is advancing on fly balls.

It also turns out baserunning is something else Adam Kennedy is terrible at.  He's cost his team more runs in stolen base attempts than any player in the majors, although Albert is just a hair behind.  And overall, he's the 7th worst baserunner, having cost the team 3.31 Equivalent Runs.  The word "bum" comes to mind...

The one bright spot is Mr. Juan Encarnacion, who despite being called out by many-a-fan for lack of hustle, ranks in the Top 10 (along with Mr. Rolen) in terms of advancing on a fly ball.  Take that, anecdotal evidence.

In this interview with Matthew Leach, the Doctor explains how it took so long to determine that Carp needed Tommy John surgery.  An excerpt:

"This is unfortunately a classic example of slow, gradual failure of the ligament," Paletta said. "Not all ligaments suddenly tear and rupture. And sometimes the way the ligament fails is over the course of many months or many seasons, and it doesn't become as obviously apparent except through things like spurs and arthritis."

Much of the trade discussion here (and elsewhere) has focused on which big leaguers the team should trade for younger, cheaper talent.  And clearly that's the direction the team must go.  But I wanted to broach the discussion of which, if any, minor leaguers should also be "on the block."  

On the surface, trading prospects for prospects is at-best a wash.  But it seems like if we want to land a top level minor leaguer, ready for '08, we may need to sweeten the deal with more than the big contracts of our aging major leaguers.

That only makes sense if we've got prospects to spare.  Despite the fact that our farm system is still thin (especially at the top), I see at least one area where it might make sense to deal.

Our system is flush with power hitters who may have a hard time finding a home in St. Louis.  With Albert at first and another first basemen in left field, I find it hard to believe yet another converted 1st basemen like Joe Mather could find a spot in our outfield.  Mark Hamilton, recently promoted to AA, is yet another 1st basemen who's likely big-league arrival date will be during the Albert Pujols era.

Rick Ankiel IS an outfielder and can even play center, but his age and the presence of Colby Rasmus make him worth considering in a deal as well.

Gordo suggests in today's column that Bryan Anderson should also be available, given Yadier Molina's talent.  I personally disagree.  For a team with such below average bats in both middle infield spots, I don't know that we can afford the luxury of a defensive specialist behind the plate.

I admit a flaw in this entire line of reasoning is that only a few of these minor leaguers will even develop into useful major leaguers.  So it can be a specious argument to speculate that these guys will ever block each other.

But I also think it's clear that we won't get much  more than salary relief if we can move an Encarnacion, Eckstein, even an Isringhausen.  (Not that that's without value.)  I wouldn't mind seeing one of these prospects move along with a big leaguer, if it could net us a major league ready prospect at second or short.  Thoughts?

I was a bit disgusted last night to see a lineup card with Kennedy and Schumaker at the top.  Despite a two game stretch some are calling a "hot streak," Kennedy's OBP is below .300, while Schumaker's only climbed above .300 a little over a week ago.  Collectively, they went 2-for-9 with no walks.

To further punctuate the situation, Kennedy made the last out of the game.  So Tony essentially had the chance to give an extra at-bat to any player on the team, and he chose Adam Kennedy.  It was the 13th time he's been in the leadoff spot this season, and Matthew Leach tells us his OBP in that slot is all of .309 (now lower).

I imagine most here have read Bill James, Baseball Prospectus or others who found optimal batting order construction puts the highest OBP at the top.  It's also just common sense that you hit Albert third so he can drive in runs, which he can't do if the first two hitters are back in the dugout.

Tony has used 8 players in the leadoff spot and 8 in the two-spot thus far (some of those overlap).  Eckstein's led-off 39 times and currently ranks 6th in OBP.  Taguchi's led-off 21 times and ranks 5th in OBP.  Miles and Kennedy have each hit first 13 times, and rank 11th and 15th, respectively.

Duncan hit second 44 times and ranks 2nd on the team in OBP, with Spezio in the slot 15 times and ranking 3rd.  Taguchi hit there 11 times.

From the standpoint of maximizing OBP, we're doing much better in the 2nd spot than the 1st.  But with Duncan moved to the cleanup spot, who's going to get on base for he and Pujols?

Eckstein and Taguchi seem like the best leadoff options, statistically.  Miles and Kennedy are terrible choices, even if they do hit left handed.

Spezio's got the best OBP outside Pujols and Duncan, so he's a great choice to bat second when he's in the lineup.  But of course, he's injured.  Schumaker and Ryan rank 4th and 8th in OBP, but the sample size and their track records make me think those numbers will come down.

The next best option to bat second right now is clearly Scott Rolen.  His .338 OBP (7th on team) is respectable.  Given his power outage, he makes less sense in the middle of the order, particularly if Duncan's already in the cleanup spot.  Others on this site have noted Rolen seemingly turning into Placido Polanco.  Doesn't it make more sense to use him that way instead of crossing our fingers and hoping he'll hit 30 HRs?

Personally, I like Duncan and his on-base skills in the 2 spot.  But if you're going to move him to try to capitalize on his slugging, it's even more crucial to get on-base skills at the top.

In the 90 games this season, Tony's used 82 different batting orders with his position players.  So why not get Rolen into that 2 spot rather than tinkering with the replacement player of the week?