SB Nation User Blog: bigelephant

The Matt Watson Mistake-Has Beane Become Lazy?

bigelephant — Mon, 15 May 2006 16:41:39 -0000

By now we all know the A's granted Watson his release to join the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan. On the surface this doesn't look like a big deal. A career minor leaguer gets released to extend his fading baseball career in the Land of Rising Sun. But I believe there are issues involved with this move that are troubling for the A's organization and need to be discussed.

Billy Taylor, Matt Stairs, Izzy, Mike Gallego, Rich Becker, John Jaha. There were others, but none of them were superstars. However Billy discovered a use for them. He outsmarted GM's and MLB in general with these misfits and outcasts. Beane and Co. assessed that some would be great closers and others awesome OBP machines. Plus, if sprinkled in some inexperienced hotshot youngsters like G and Eric and Ramon and Miggy along with some ass-kicking pitching like "The Big Three"....well now, playoffs here we come! All on a shoestring budget. It's what people write books about!

But 2001 happened. Our beloved A's were once again KO'd prematurely from the playoffs and Billy showed the first crack of discontentment with how he was winning and fooling MLB. This shift from "winning while fooling everyone on the cheap" is growing and its not making things better but worse. The A's are no longer winning like the late 90's and early 00's and they aren't fooling anyone. Are the A's spending like the Bosox and Yankees? Of course not. But I do believe Billy has become disinterested with building his teams. He is making too many mistakes. One could say, Beane is off his game.

No longer do we see Beane grabbing that "player-to-be-named-later". Holding out for the "...and cash considerations" for that pickup in August. And we don't see Beane giving guys like Matt Watson a chance. Sure Watson was given his "cup of coffee" last year. Sure he didn't have a great ST this year. But all Watson has done, year-in year-out was rake in the minors and play solid defense. In 1998, 1999, 2000 and maybe in 2001 Watson WOULD have been the starting LF in Oakland.

In 2006 we have Payton at 4 million who can't hit a breaking ball if his life depended on. We have Booby K who isn't near as funny without the hair at 1 million. And we have Perez who after 20 ABs final has a hit but plays defense like it's a disease. And finally, and this is where Billy truly lost his way, when the A's traded Lehr and Cruz for Ginter. Presently, Ginter continues to play and "offer veteran leadership" in The Sac at 3 Million dollars. Folks, that's 8 millions misspent by my account (that's not counting Perez's peanuts he "earns").

I say Watson's release is simply just not about giving a chance to a career minor leaguer but rather an opportunity lost to show MLB that the A's are a special organiztion that can see the gifts of a player, plug said player in a role where he'II succeed and as a TEAM win more ballgames than their highpriced competition. And, who knows, maybe win the WS.

In conclusion, I still believe. I still believe in Billy. I still believe Billy is God in a pair of khakis shorts purchased at The Gap for $29.99. I just think, with Watson anyway, he just blew a save.

"Built to Win" vs "Moneyball"

bigelephant — Mon, 01 May 2006 19:13:22 -0000

I'm not sure if anyone on AN has yet to read John Schuerholz's new book-"Built to Win: Inside Stories and Leadership Strategies from Baseball's Winningest GM". Schuerholz wrote the book with Larry Guest. This fact alone makes this book different from the AN bible because, as WE all know, Billy DID NOT write "Moneyball". So one could probably say Moneyball was written with a more objective eye vs "Built to Win". However I've yet to read "Built to Win"-but I will be as soon as my order comes in.

Apparently, there are some good stories about how the Bravers almost traded for Bonds, how the Braves signed Maddox away from the Yankees etc, etc, etc. But what I'm really interested in is the contrast between the Braves' vs the A's philosophy of building teams.

The Braves have won 15 divisional titles, 1 W.S. title in 1995 and have arguably one of the best minor league systems, year-in/year-out. Last year the Braves started a 47 year old at 1st base who was playing in the Mexican League while having approx 15 rookies on the 25 man roster. They won their division-again.

I listened to a Schuerholz interview today and the dude is fascinating. In the interview he contributes a successful winning team to three things:

A successful minor league system.
A very stout scouting staff who beat the bushes with a very strong reliance on the scouting department for drafting for the minor league system.
A smart and successful Major League Manager who is a great teacher and a clever and gifted in game tactician. Bobby Cox, without a doubt, is a first ballot H of F.

So, it's Schuerholz's contention that if a MLB team possesses these three elements in their organization they too should be successful.

Humph! Do the A's? Are the A's "built to win". Who would you want as the A's GM: Beane vs Schuerholz?

Poll

Who do you prefer: Beane vs Schuerholz, or....

Schuerholz

17 votes

Oaktoon

23 votes

Beane

37 votes

77 votes | Poll has closed

AN,should foolshgame22 pay up? With Poll

bigelephant — Wed, 28 Sep 2005 16:05:19 -0000

First of all, i'd like to thank the A's and AN for a great season of baseball. In April I predicted a 84-86 win season for the boys in green/gold but they far exceeded my expectations with their general level of play and courage. I believe this ball club is VERY close to getting back into the playoffs....and then, well, everything is a crap shoot.

Anyway, the reason for this diary is simple. Many on AN will know a certain lovable loudmouth who had (has) a strong manlove for a certain player currently sitting on the bench in Baltimore. We here on AN, have had to endure countless comments from foolshgame22 re: byrnes and his "greatness". Reading through some previous exchanges between foolsh and some AN memebers is truly entertaining (one such encouter between foolsh and grover was hysterical). Yes my friends, foolshgame22 was pure hyperbole when it came to that jackass byrnes. BUT, dammit, one day foolsh went too far. Too far I say!

It started with a challenge. Now, I'II admit, I fancy myself as a betting man. I can also assess odds and such and see when I'm getting suckered. But when foolsh dropped this one down, against some strong odds, i bit. (i.e. total ABs for players for an ex). To refresh your memories:

http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/6/24/75025/3841

Now, as you read through the diary you'II notice FIVE of us took up foolshgame22's challenge. We were commonly called (mainly by foolsh) "The Foolsh Five";

"bigelephant", "novaoakland", "JSCHWAN",
"capper3" and "nickolai".

The Foolsh Five tolerated many barbs from foolsh regarding this bet but we stuck to it. Some examples:

http://www.athleticsnation.com/comments/2005/8/3/33920/63395/2#2

http://www.athleticsnation.com/comments/2005/7/24/23570/3577/14#14

http://www.athleticsnation.com/comments/2005/7/13/23179/7290/9#9

http://www.athleticsnation.com/comments/2005/7/9/25516/89355/4#4

So, just like the season is almost over for our beloved A's, so is this bet. I believe, without a shadow of doubt, foolshgame22 should soon be paying "The Foolsh Five" $500-$100 per. Read the numbers:
AB AVG OBP SLG

Byrnes vs RH: 254 .205 .270 .327
Kotsay vs RH: 395 .261 .310 .403

People, the numbers are in and they don't lie- Foolshgame22 needs to pay up....and fast! Now, I don't know how the others in The Foolsh Five gang feel, but I'm willing to let AN ultimately decide if foolsh actually honors his bets. You've read the challenge, you've read the remarks, you know the depth of foolsh's manlove for Byrnes and you've seen the numbers. So, I ask you, what do we do...............?

EDITORS NOTE: Eventhough foolsh can be a royal pain in the ass I'm hesitating on holding his feet to close to fire on this. Foolsh does have "a little foolshgame22" on the way and I'd hate see little foolsh go without. I just wish daddy foolsh would grab some friggin' brains and stop being so, well, foolsh. If Foolshgame22 promises to take his wife out for dinner and buy little foolsh some new Nike sneakers...well, I'm willing to let it slide...THIS GD TIME ONLY!

Poll

Should Foolshgame22 pay on his bet:

Yes, let's shut up Foolshgame22 once and for all- he should pay AND be banned by Nico!

9 votes

Yes, Foolsh shot his mouth off and lost- Pay up sucker!

99 votes

No, let Foolshgame spend his money on his family

28 votes

No, but Foolsh should be banned from AN for 1 month

1 votes

Yes, in fact, Foolsh should send Cohibas and scotch to all on AN

12 votes

No, Foolsh was blinded by his manlove for Byrnes and can't be held responsible for his actions

32 votes

181 votes | Poll has closed

Slusser Reporting A's Signing Kotsay "Likely"

bigelephant — Fri, 08 Jul 2005 12:51:10 -0000

In this morning in sfgate.com Susan Slusser reports on the pending Payton/Bradford trade. I happen to like Payton's game, so giving up Bradford isn't so bad in my opinion. What I found interesting though was Slusser's take on the contract talks between the A's and Kotsay. She seems to suggest that the talks are "going well" and its likely Kotsay will soon sign for around 7 mil with a 2 year extension. This produces an interesting question-someone will need to be traded, who?

The usual suspects:

Byrnes
Rincon
Cruz
Hatteberg
Ginter
Zito
Saarloos
Ellis
Scoot

Any thoughts as to who and where?

Brief Observations from BJ/A's game

bigelephant — Wed, 06 Jul 2005 13:16:53 -0000

I was sitting 16 rows up and just to the right of the 1st base bag. I had mucho A's fans around me and one row down from me a dude had an awesome Kotsay road uni on and we were doing our best to piss off the home crowd.

thoughts:

Haren's control was off but he battled all night. I liked how he kept coming after hitters. He's a warrior.
Macha's use of the bullpen is puzzling. Rincon's homer to Hudson was inexcusable. Hudson is weak batting from the right side and Rincon just groved one high and down the middle. This not only rattled Rincon but it seemed to rattle Macha. Kenny immediately goes to Calero too soon which caused him to bring out Street for 5 outs. Why not use Duke in the the 7th, Calero in the 8th and Street for the 9th?
Street is VERY impressive. They had him on the big screen coming out of the BP and it looked like he was hyperventilating...but when he got on the rubber he was dynamite! Oh, to be 21 again!
Crosby's in-side-the-parker was awesome. When Wash was wavin' him around all the A's fans around me were goin' nuts. Crosby had a big game, hitting the ball with authority and using the whole field.
Why, why, why, why didn't Scoot eat that ball in the 9th? He had NO chance of making that DP, NONE. I was able to see the play develop and started screaming "eat it, eat it, eat it" and then Scoot almost threw the ball to me in the 16th row. Scoot had a tough game at the plate and in the field.

I'm tired this morning....but went to bed with a grin on my face.

Go A's!

Do you want to manage the A's? A's SIMWorld!

bigelephant — Wed, 22 Jun 2005 14:40:08 -0000

We all can go down the list of superstars who have left the A's for more money and a better winning situation....the list is depressing and long. It's what a true A's Fan lives with-and often wears as a badge of honor-this constant turnover of our beloved A's. It also produces countless hours and numerous AN threads of debates-and sometimes arguements-regarding past player and management decisions.

But, have you ever wondered what it would be like to sit in Beane's chair and pull the trigger on a "F'in A trade"- BUT STILL BE WORRIED ABOUT THE "BOTTOMLINE"? Well, here's your chance to put all that "knownledge"...and maybe your MBA...to good use. It's called "The Oakland Baseball Simworld".

The Oakland Baseball Simworld is a business simulator that offers the following objectives:

-the simulation has over 90 decisions that impact the baseball organization

-you must "grow" the business of baseball in oakland over a 15 year period

-achieve constant increases in franchise value, maintain a competitive team, and win in the play-offs and WS

-this is all done using the current CBA, or you may choose a new CBA

There is a FREE trial, or the cost is $12.50 (pretty cheap!) to really get into it. When I have some free time I think I'm going to give it a try....and maybe see what Beane needs to do to keep Kotsay for the next 3-4 years all the while looking for a cheap clean-up hitter! If you are interested (let us know how you do!!! DON'T BANKRUPT THE TEAM!!!) here's the link: http://www.sportsbusinessims.com/home.html Cheers, and go A's!

Get To Know Farhan Zaidi

bigelephant — Mon, 06 Jun 2005 19:13:48 -0000

On this slow off day for the boys, i was cruising the various saber sites looking for some interesting articles when i came across an interview by jc bradbury over on "sabernomics".

"bigelephant note": if you're a big saber fan and can forget for a moment that jc is a huge braves fan, you'ii discover he operates a kick-ass blog over there.

anyway, the interview that caught my eye was posted on may 28th by jc with a's front office #3 guy Farhan Zaidi. when zaidi was hired by the a's back in feb "oaktowntribesman" posted the announcement- and received 2 response....so i'm not sure how interested some of you with this. but i think if you take the time to go over to jc's site you'ii be facinated, and possibly envious, of the work farhan does with
the a's. it's a remarkable snapshot of how the a's (beane/forst) use statistical analysis for some of their decision making.

quick query: is there a next "farhan" posting on AN????

if you're interested:

http://bradbury.sewanee.edu/wordpress/index.php/2005/05/an-interview-with-farhan-zaidi/

cheers

Jeremy Brown: The Next Great Gap Model?

bigelephant — Thu, 19 May 2005 13:43:01 -0000

Might Jeremy Brown have a future in Oakland? Old Brownie might never sell 501's but he could very well hit his backside into a pair of "easy fit" khakis and eventually the Green and Gold.

Typically, I like following draft picks of baseball teams....especially the A's. I suppose that's why I found Moneyball so intriguing. It was fascinating to get the sense of being in the draft room and be given the opportunity to see the draft process at work.

Jeremy Brown has been one guy I've followed closely. Brownie is in Midland and is currently having somewhat of a renaissance to his baseball career. Last night he hit the game winning homerun in the 10th-he's 4th homer of the year. So far in '05:

gm ab hit 2b 3b hr rbi tb bb so obp slg avg
32 102 27 6 1 4 18 47 17 22 .397 .491 .265

I encourage you to watch for Jeremy's progress and cheer that he makes it to "The Show". Some reports have his defense as being weak, so he may be moved to DH/1st. Time will tell if he makes it.

One other note of interest from Midland. Andre Ethier looks like a stud. Either caught my eye during ST. He might surpass Swisher as the best OF prospect coming out of Oakland's minor league system since probably Canseco.

Do you have a specific minor league player you follow?

Dotel's Elbow Trouble- Blessing or Curse?

bigelephant — Wed, 18 May 2005 13:02:29 -0000

Well, with the sudden rash of injuries the A's have experienced of late, should it be any surprise that Dotel's elbow is now barking'?

I think we could count on one hand how many sliders Dotel has thrown since ST. Lefthanded batters are tuning Dotel at .991 OPS. and he's fastball has lost 2-3 mph.

Now we receive word that Tuesday Dotel walked in and reported elbow discomfort and is scheduled to see and Ortho-Doc. This is reported in:

http:/www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?=/chronicle/archive/2005/05/18/SPG2ACQSHD1.DTL

So, who is the closer. I know some on this site don't think labeling one guy in the pen as "the closer" is a big deal-but I respectfully disagree. One guy needs to be "the bull" in the pen.

I suggest Street is probably ready. Give the kid the ball and see what happens. In the long run, this might be beneficial for both Street and the A's.

What Is Macha's Future?

bigelephant — Mon, 04 Apr 2005 13:24:10 -0000

The A's are about to commence a brand new baseball season and I'm extremely pumped! I like the look of the 2005 Athletics and hope the many "predictions" I've read (and laughed at) come true of a 90 win season.

There is one troubling item that continues to nag at me-Macha going into 2005 as a "lame duck" manager. I can't recall too many managers going into their final year of a contract and winning. Can anyone offer an example?

I happen to believe Macha has many strengths:

He seems to have a good relationship with most of his players. He might not communicate well but has a open door policy.
He is "Old School"...speaks the truth, doesn't use the media to bash players and respects the traditions of "The Game".
He is a good "planner". Very organized and likes structure to the ball club.

I noticed today that Beaton on USAToday rates Macha very highly. Beaton sees Macha in the same class as Gardenhire, La Russa, McKeon and Showalter-not too shabby! Here's the link:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2005-04-04-bonus-manager-ratings_x.htm

So, what does AN think? Is this a big issue? Do you care? Do you think Macha will last the season? I thought I'd try a survey...my first try at this, so bare with me.

Poll

What Is Macha's Future?

Macha Doesn't Finish 2005- Gets Fired

1 votes

The A's Win the AL West and Macha Gets An Extension

13 votes

The A's Play .500, Lose and Macha Gets An Extension

6 votes

This Is Macha's Last Year, No Matter What

27 votes

I Don't Like Macha, He Is A Nimrod

4 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed