SB Nation User Blog: biggity2bit

2008 SP analysis and Matt Cain

biggity2bit — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 01:23:04 -0000

The game score analysis is back, updated for the entire year and including an interesting (if only rumored) trade target.

For those who didn't read me midseason post, I analyzed the Twins' starting pitchers by looking at their game scores throughout the season. The game score attempts to encapsulate a starting pitcher's entire game performance in one metric. 50 is average.

While by no means a perfect measure of a pitcher, I've found that the game score can provide a pretty accurate snapshot of a pitcher. Using a few standard methods of looking at a spectrum of numbers allows us insight into certain characteristics or tendencies a pitcher may have. I use a few:

Average: sum of all game scores / games started

Median: a very useful method of analysis. The median is the number at which half of a given sample lies above and half lies below. Thus flukey outliers are less likely to skew the result as they are essentially weighted equally.

Variance: this is a new for me, but I think it gives a more accurate measure of consistency. Basically it tells you how randomly dispersed a given set of data is. A larger number is more random (that is, prone to severe fluctuation up or down from the median) than a smaller number. In terms of game scores a large number suggests moments of brilliance and dominance coupled with some absolutely atrocious starts throughout a season. A small number suggests significantly more consistency, but whether that's consistently bad or good depends on the other data. Of the data I'll be posting variance ranges from 101.4 (very good) to 309.8 (very bad).

Lastly, for the variance calculations I've omitted each pitcher's best and worst performance for the year, as sometimes stuff just happens for better and for worse

So, without further ado, here are your 2008 Twins starting pitchers and my take on it (average GS/median GS/variance):

Scott Baker. 55.2 / 54.5 / 124.1 Baker was our best pitcher this year, both in terms of stuff and consistency. His median of 54.5 was second best to Liriano's in double the games started. Baker's consistency (as rated by variance) was by far the best of the Twins starting staff. Not only was he good, but he was consistently better than not.
Francisco Liriano. 56.4 / 66 / 215.5 Liriano, post injury (which are the numbers I'm using) looked very good according to this analysis. His median game score of 66 is incredible, but what really hurt him was throwing so many innings between AAA and the majors. He ended the year with a 24 and 21 game score in his last three starts. I think it is safe to assume that Liriano will become the staff ace next year.
Kevin Slowey. 52.6 / 51 / 236.4 Slowey is the ultimate feast or famine pitcher. When he is on he is dominant. When he is off he is awful. On the whole he was better than he was worse (average and median better than 50), and once you take his top and bottom scores out his variance drops over 100 points (from 339 to 236). If Slowey can learn to minimize his mistakes more, he has the potential to be very good.
Nick Blackburn. 47.9 / 49 / 224.2 Blackburn is the measure of consistency for the staff. He was what he was at the beginning, middle, and end of the season--and that was average. If you take out his three best and worst scores his numbers are 48.8 / 49 / 167. He's essentially more consistently average. He's our #3 or 4 of the next 5-10 years.
Glen Perkins. 46.5 / 46 / 168.2 I have the feeling that there are a lot of people out there that are a lot higher on Perkins than I am, and the numbers suggest that he's not all that special. Perkins is essentially a left handed Blackburn clone. Average. Predictable performance range. Left handed.

One thing I am a firm believer in is context for data. I know most of this stuff won't mean anything to you unless you have something more to compare it to. So, in the interest of helping foster discussion, here are some other benchmarks:

Livan Hernadez. 39.2 / 40 / 279.5 Talk about brutal. Had a few good games, more bad ones, and altogether set a very low bar for everyone else. For as many games as he won for us (which can't be discounted--his opening season performance against the Angels set a great tone for the year) his overall performance was just bad. Even while with us his numbers were still 40.8 / 43 / 274.4 . Very up and down, with a low overall ceiling.
Johan Santana 2008. 60.1 / 61.5 / 101.4 Holy crap. Let the debate begin: if we had Johan with this kind of dominance, would we have made the post season? Or did GoGo contribute just enough enough, SB's, and great defense to almost get us past the White Sox? Johan was simply very, very good this year. I hope New Yorkers appreciate what they have in Johan.
Matt Cain (future Twin???) 53.5 / 58 / 212.3 Cain's numbers, according to this analysis, place him somewhere between Baker and Slowey. His median score is terrific, and suggest that if he can learn to minimize his mistakes he could become a bona fide ace. While Gleeman may beg to differ in terms of walks, Cain's variance of 212.3 would rank as third best on the Twins this year, which I think is acceptable. So here's the question: if you could get Cain for Delmon and Perkins, would you do it? He projects as the highest ceiling starting pitcher on the Twins (with serious competition from Liriano), and coming here would pair him with Rick Anderson--the exact kind of coach who could help him maximize his potential by helping him with his weaknesses. Just sayin'.
Johan circa 2004. 63.3 / 66.5 / 296.6 How good was Johan in 2004? After the first 11 games of his usual early season average-ness, Johan went 70.8 / 72.5 / 117.6 . That is simply incredible, whether via this analysis or any other.
Greg Maddux 1995. 69.1 / 70 / 174.5 The only other legendary season I could think of was Maddux in '95. He was truly awesome that year, and between him and Johan in 2004 I think we have quality benchmarks for understanding the game score stats analysis.

So, after all of this, my big question is: do we pursue the Cain trade or not? Is Twins Territory still satisfied with the starting rotation, or can it get better? What do you think of the analysis? Disagree with anything? If you made it this far, thanks for reading. TwinkieTown is a great website. People on here are great.

Poll

Should the Twins trade Delmon and a starting pitcher in order to get Matt Cain?

Yes, if the SP is Perkins

11 votes

Yes, if the SP is Blackburn

7 votes

Yes, if the pitcher is in AAA right now

8 votes

No, keep Delmon and trade Cuddy

21 votes

No, our pitchers will be fine next year, and Delmon will be better.

22 votes

No, our pitchers will be fine next year, but still trade Delmon.

0 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Quarterback FA's for 2009

biggity2bit — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 23:31:04 -0000

Something's going to give in Purple Pride land next year. Gus may or may not remain starter and Tarvaris may or may not reclaim the starting job--either way the Vikings front office will sign another QB to come in (without or without Chilly's blessing, if he's still here) to provide competition.

And if we have a new HC? Well, the FO will still sign whoever they want. So who are some options out there for us to look at? ESPN has graciously provided a convenient list to start with:

Here's a list of quarterbacks about to enter free agency:

Kurt Warner

Kerry Collins

Jeff Garcia

J.P. Losman

Rex Grossman

Kyle Boller

J.T. O'Sullivan

Byron Leftwich

Charlie Frye

Patrick Ramsey

Alex Smith (under contract but likely to be cut)

And if none of them do anything for you, Joey Harrington, Daunte Culpepper and Chris Simms always seem available.

Of these names, I think a few are worth looking at. Are they perfect? No. But some are intriguing. One other thing--I'm valuing younger guys over older guys, even though there are two old guys (Garcia and Warner) who would be outstanding stop gaps for us. Ok, on to the list:

Matt Cassel--the Patriots version of Chad Pennington (who incidentally wouldn't be worse than what we have now at QB). Cassel will be 27 next, has almost no tread on the tires, but is completing a gaudy 66% of his passes right now. He's got Moss and no one else. We've got AD and a bunch of complimentary role guys who would benefit greatly from a guy who can distribute completions and keep the chains moving.
J.P. Losman--whatever happened to that guy? Yes, he might be a bit of a headcase, but he's also a solid 63%+ passer with 7 YPA. He's a year older than Cassel, but he'll probably also be more signable at a reasonable price. Could be the Kyle Orton of next year with a change of scenery.
Charlie Frye/Chris Simms--While he was a starter in Cleveland, Frye's completion percentage was over 60%. While a little turnover prone, he's definitely average, and that's enough for this Viking's squad (see: Gus Frerotte). As for Simms, I think he's another guy who is average, with perhaps a little higher ceiling than Frye. While at Tampa he completed just under 60% of his passes. Except for a horrendous start and subsequent injury in 2006 he still might be Tampa's starter today. He strikes me as a slightly better and significantly younger Gus Frerotte with a bit better accuracy.
Jeff Garcia/Kurt Warner--OK, so they really deserve to be listed down here, but I felt like the young guys make for more interesting debate. Garcia would be perfect here: high percentage, high YPA, scrambling ability, and only a year+ older than Gus. He has 3000 more yards and and almost 50 more TDs than Gus in five fewer seasons. Enough said. Warner is only a month older than Gus but has 5000 more yards and almost 60 more TDs in 4 fewer seasons. Both Garcia and Warner have averaged 61.5% and 6.9 YPA or better for their careers. Of the two I think Warner is more gettable and would provide better leadership and tutoring to Tarvaris or whatever young QB is drafted to become starter in 2-3 years.

I don't think the Vikings should--or need--to break the bank finding a starting QB. In the short term Garcia or Warner make by far the most sense. They would give us a chance to win now, make our receivers better, hopefully help mentor Tarvaris/unnamed future young QB, and have no significantly detrimental salary cap effects.

The younger guys--especially if the scouts and FO are convinced are ready to come in and take the next step--are a much better medium term solution. The right guy could come in and win and establish himself as the QB of the next 5-10 years, or (at worst) would provide us another season of Gus with better running ability and less injury risk.

Of course the most obvious solution is to improve the offensive play calling and scheming to reflect and maximize the abilities of the players we have, but only time will tell if that shoe will fall. In the meantime, who do you think should be the Vikings starting QB next year?

Poll

Who should start at QB for the Vikings in 2009?

Gus Gus

2 votes

Tarvaris

7 votes

Matt Cassel

9 votes

JP Losman

10 votes

Frye/Simms

1 votes

Jeff Garcia

8 votes

Kurt Warner

11 votes

Daunte

5 votes

Rex Grossman

1 votes

Rick Spielman

7 votes

61 votes | Poll has closed

Twins' Minor League Pitching Coordinator to Tigers

biggity2bit — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 03:34:44 -0000

I was just browsing through ESPN and saw this item. Checking some of the local Twins blogs there wasn't anything about it. I've heard in the past that Knapp was an important figure for our minor league pitchers. Is that true? How does this move affect (or not affect) the Twins moving forward?

Rick Knapp was hired as the Detroit Tigers pitching coach on Friday.

Knapp joins the coaching staff after 12 seasons as the minor league pitching coordinator for the Minnesota Twins.

He replaces Chuck Hernandez, who was fired along with bullpen coach Jeff Jones last month at the end of Detroit's disappointing 74-88 season.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland said in a statement that Knapp brings "an excellent track record of developing major league-caliber pitchers."

Knapp began his coaching career as the pitching coach at Class A Gastonia in 1988. He pitched five seasons at the minor league level with the Texas Rangers.

Knapp has drawn plenty of praise from the Twins organization over the years for his work with several prospects. He was instrumental in helping Nick Blackburn overcome a knee problem, weight gain and confidence loss to rise through the system and land a spot in the Twins' rotation this spring.

Vote for EJ's nickname

biggity2bit — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 17:49:38 -0000

After his play last week, and the impact and identity he lends to the defense, it only seems appropriate that EJ Henderson receives a nickname as good as All Day and/or Purple Jesus.

Here are the user submissions. Please vote for your favorite, or add your own in the comments.

One last thing--many of the nicknames refer to the flying Superman hit EJ laid on DeAngelo Williams last week, just a point of reference.

Go Vikes

Poll

What should EJ Henderson's nickname be?

Brown Sugar

8 votes

Thor's Hammer (or just Hammer)

17 votes

"Early Jump" Henderson

4 votes

Thor Henderson

3 votes

Nothing--he's already "EJ"

35 votes

The Flying Enforcer

5 votes

These are all bad--let's call PA

17 votes

89 votes | Poll has closed

What's up with Thomas Tapeh?

biggity2bit — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 15:51:40 -0000

I just saw this quote from VikingUpdate:

FB Thomas Tapeh, signed to a five-year, $6 million free-agent deal this offseason, was inactive for Sunday’s game against Carolina. It’s clear Naufahu Tahi has passed Tapeh on the depth chart. Part of the reason is because Tahi is thought to be a better special teams player.

What gives? I didn't think Tapeh has looked bad this year, but then again I don't really remember him at all in the first two games either. Anyone else know what's going on?

EJ Henderson...

biggity2bit — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 03:10:27 -0000

...needs a really good nickname. Please please please help out and give suggestions.

Adrian Peterson is Purple Jesus, perhaps the best nickname I have heard in a long long time, and I think it is only appropriate that EJ earns an equally awesome nickname. With any luck we, the fans, can get the announcers on TV and the local and national press reference EJ's new nickname.

What do you think? It's the least we can do for him after that sick tackle of DeAngelo last week.

Make your suggestions as a comment below, and after we get a good amount I'll post a poll of the best for people to vote (or someone else can if they feel so inclined).

Seeing as how I'm initiating this nickname challenge, I'll suggest the first nickname (apropos of that DeAngelo hit): Brown Sugar. (If you don't get it, look it up on Amazon.)

Tired of hearing how great Titans D is

biggity2bit — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 02:30:57 -0000

I'm really tired of hearing about how great Tennessee's D from all the talking heads out there (and some of the commentors on this site.) Yes they're good, but so are we. But let me set something straight: Tennessee, in no way, shape, or form is going to walk all over us this game, defensively or offensively. Because I'm most annoyed with the coverage their D is getting, and how they're going to shut down our running game, let's start there.

Titans rushing defense:

The rushing offenses the Titans have faced have totaled 848 yards this year. For us that number is 841 yards (essentially equal). The difference is that we've given up almost 20 yards less per game rushing than the Titans. What gives?

If we just look at rushing, they've played against the 13th, 24th, and 29th best rushing attacks. Of all those rankings, only Jacksonville's 13th best rushing attack stands out as noteworthy. That's also the closest game for Tennessee all year (a 17-10 win).

I think, at this point, it's safe to say that AD + Chester > Fred and MJD.
According to the stats:
Through 3 games, AD + Chester = 421 yds, 85 carries, 4.95 ave.

For the other two, Fred and MJD = 325 yds, 80 carries, 4.06 ave.

Thus, we are the best rushing attack they have seen yet, and don't be fooled into thinking that they have the second coming of Sam Adams and Tony Siragusa waiting for our boys.

Titans Pass defense:
Where Tennessee really excels is defending the pass (3rd in the NFL). So far this year they've only given up 454 yards through the air--all year. We've allowed 631 yards through the air (good for 20th.)

A little further analysis paints a slightly different picture, though.

If we look at the total passing yards of the three teams the Titans and the Vikings have faced this year, we discover that the Titans haven't played many--if any--good passing attacks, while the Vikes have already faced two:

Titan's opponents total passing = 1254 yards.
Viking's opponents total passing = 2004 yards

Those numbers tell us, again, that the Vikings have faced much better overall passing attacks this year than the Titans have. So how did each team fair against the quality of passing they faced?

The Vikings allowed 680 of those 2004 cumulative passing yards, or 33.9% of the total.
The Titans, interestingly, allowed 537 of their opponents' 1254 passing yards, or 42.8% of the total. So when viewed this way, while the Vikings have allowed more yards through air, they've been more effective at limiting the pass against better competition.

In the final analysis, Tennessee has a very solid defense, one which will, believe it or not, receive its greatest challenge of the season this Sunday. But to say that the Titan's D is outstanding is to jump the gun prematurely. So far the only thing they've proven is that they have done what they should have done against inferior competition. How they would fare against a Green Bay or an Indy is anyone's guess.

So far the numbers have shown that we've done an even better job defensively against much better competition than Tennessee, so don't be swayed by the hype. Our defense is for real, and the Titans have more to worry about offensively this Sunday than we do.

Poll

Who would you rather have?

Big Papa Pat Williams

12 votes

K-Will

28 votes

Albert Haynesworth

18 votes

58 votes | Poll has closed

How good is EJ?

biggity2bit — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 21:07:00 -0000

The Vikings defense was awesome today. There were a lot of good plays made by a lot of good players, but one guy who stood out for me more than Kevin Williams, more than Jared Allen, and more than Antoine Winfield, was EJ Henderson. He looked just amazing today, and I think his play had a lot to do with Carolina's offensive troubles.

So my question is where do you think EJ ranks in the NFC North? Is he the best? Leave comments with your thoughts, or take the poll on who you think is the NFC North's best LB.

Poll

Who is the best LB in the NFC North?

EJ Henderson

54 votes

Brian Urlacher

9 votes

Nick Barnett

2 votes

Ernie Sims

1 votes

Lance Briggs

1 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

Best in house OC options

biggity2bit — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 15:39:08 -0000

I hope, I hope, I hope we get an in season coaching change. Childress would be much better as a front offfice or scout, as others have already asserted here. Hire Leslie Frasier for HC NOW.

With that being said, what should happen with the offense? Who are the most likely in-house candidates to help turn things around? After doing a little research, here are the best options I came up with:

Kevin Rogers, QB coach. The guy has been around awhile, and perhaps he knows, better than anyone else, what plays will maximize Tarvaris' abilities right now. He's also been an OC at the collegiate level and helped a lot of marginal QBs produce in his system.
Pat Morris, OL coach. After reading his bio, I realized that we have a great OL coach in Morris (and Hueber too). AD and Chester dominate because of Morris, not because of Chilly. I really think that the passing game for Minnesota comes down to Chilly and Bevell, as Morris and Hueber take care of the running game and Frasier the D. That being said, Purple Jesus is the best we got, so why not have the guy who knows how best to use him lead the charge?
Scott Linehan, Rams HC. I know, he works for someone else right now and he doesn't do WCO. But don't you get the feeling like he might be fired within the next couple weeks? Tarvaris certainly has the arm for Scott's offense, not sure about the accuracy. One thing I always liked about Linehan (just like I liked about Tomlin and now Frasier) is that he always seemed to adjust his offense in order to get the most out of his guys, regardless of whether they fit his system or not.
Brian Billick, TV analyst. Another local retread, but is perhaps too much like Chilly. Qadry Ismail comeback, anyone?
Steve Mariucci. Now this one I think is really interesting. He didn't do so great with Detroit, but Belicheck would fail in Detroit. He's a WCO guy, he made the 49ers into something with a (then) unknown QB in Garcia, and he's available now. I think he'd be a very intriguing choice, even as an outside consultant to help them out now.

So what does Purple Pride think?

Poll

If Leslie were promoted to HC, the OC should be:

Kevin Rogers, current QB coach

6 votes

Pat Morris, current OL coach

2 votes

Scott Linehan, (he'll be fired soon)

6 votes

Brian Billick, (he's available now)

12 votes

Steve Mariucci, (proven WCO guy)

13 votes

Daunte, (hey, he'd only need a parking lot to get em ready)

3 votes

42 votes | Poll has closed

If coaching is the problem...

biggity2bit — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 00:56:12 -0000

...What should the Vikes do? I've posted earlier my thoughts on Chilly and Tarvaris and the reasons for our passing ineptitude, and have come to the conclusion that there's a disconnect between a rigid offensive philosophy and coaching players to put them in the best position for success. So, what to do?

It's probably too late to find a new offensive coordinator, but maybe there are some options out there. Didn't we bring in midseason help once during Tice's years?

What other options are there? Any QB's available on the street or via trade?

Poll

Should they...

Leave Chilly in charge, but fire Bevell

2 votes

Fire Bevell and hire a new OC

4 votes

Hire an outside 'consultant' to call plays

1 votes

Fire Childress and promote Frasier to HC

39 votes

Bench Tarvaris and start Gus

5 votes

Call up Daunte

5 votes

56 votes | Poll has closed