SB Nation User Blog: biggity2bit

Anyone have this? Hollinger discussing breaking up the Warriors/Wizards

biggity2bit — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 22:15:23 -0000

Anyone have this? Hollinger discussing breaking up the Warriors/Wizards

I'm wondering if there are any trade ramifications for us discussed in here.

A look at ex-Wolves from last year

biggity2bit — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 21:46:53 -0000

A look at ex-Wolves from last year

From Randball (strib):

"As much as the Wolves have struggled this year, and as much as some of the replacements for the above players might not be upgrades as much as stand-ins, by and large it seems as though a lot of dead weight was swept out fairly efficiently."

Any have Insider access?

biggity2bit — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:18:01 -0000

Any have Insider access?

Any one have access to this?

biggity2bit — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:24:30 -0000

Any one have access to this?

It's David Thorpe's Rookie upside rankings. Some of our guys gotta be in there, right? It's ESPN Insider only.

Jon Leuer (Wisconsin), lottery pick

biggity2bit — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:44:01 -0000

Jon Leuer (Wisconsin), lottery pick

Shooter, at his best:

"Orono grad Jon Leuer, 6 feet 10, 225, is shooting 51 percent while averaging 14 points, five rebounds and one block as a junior for Wisconsin. Some people think Leuer, who scored 17 points in the Badgers' victory over Duke last week, has the potential to be an NBA lottery draft pick."

Mental note-never believe anything Charlie has to say about the NBA again. Not that I have anything against Leuer, but please. Lottery?

Your weekly Rubio

biggity2bit — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:35:41 -0000

Saw a thing about Rubio in the paper recently and got to wondering how our Golden Boy is doing. Using Hollinger's euro-transfer formula (all per minute: scoring -25%, reb +18%, ast +31%, fg% -12%), Rubio numbers suggest that he is shaping up to be something of a Jason Kidd clone.

Here are his raw numbers in 17 games (19.4 min/game) this season:

4.9 pts/gm, 4.7 ast/gm, 2.4 reb/gm, 1.9 stl/gm

Shooting: (.467 eFG overall)

.432 on 2's on 2.2 attempts/game

.348 on 3's on 1.4 attempts/game

.875 on ft's on 1.9 attempts/game

Adjusting those numbers using Hollinger's formula and displaying them per/36 minute production yields:

6.9 pts/36 min, 11.5 ast/36 min, 5.2 reb/36 min, and 2.7 stl/36 min, .411 eFG (probably not precise-this is simply the 12% worse value Hollinger uses on fg% applied to eFG).

This makes me wonder if Rubio might not become the proto-typical triangle PG if he comes here. He excels at passing, court vision, spacing, and seems to have an intuitive feel for getting teammates in the right spots and hitting them with a pass. Furthermore, the triangle would really help mitigate his weaknesses: athleticism in driving to the hoop and his poor shooting numbers, and his iso offense game. If the triangle is about spacing and hitting guys who are cutting and moving, and taking the open shot, few would surpass Rubio as a facilitator. Add in his superior size (length) and anticipation instincts and he could flourish in this system.

So my next question becomes (assuming this assessment of Rubio is more or less correct)-do the Wolves move forward banking on Rubio as their PG or one of the Sessions/Flynn? I think this is important because it influences the draft/FA strategy. If Rubio is your guy, then you need to surround him with shooters, scorers, and athletic guys who can get to the basket. In other words, a guy like Gay who's primarily a scorer might be valued a little more because he'll help offset the lack of scoring from Rubio. On the other side, if Flynn/Sessions is your guy, perhaps you look for a little more of an efficient two-way guy (a Turner or Ronnie Brewer type). Then again, on this team, perhaps talent is talent no matter the position, so simply get the BPA in the draft and the best value on the FA market.

Here's Pekovic's numbers, for what it's worth:

In 12 games (20.8 min/game) this season:

14.6 pts/gm, .75 ast/gm, 4 reb/gm, .67 blk/gm

Shooting: (.674 eFG overall)

.674 on 2's on 7.2 attempts/game

.000 on 3's on 0 attempts/game

.686 on ft's on 7.2 attempts/game

Adjusting those numbers using Hollinger's formula and displaying them per/36 minute production yields:

19 pts/36 min, 1.7 ast/36 min, 8.2 reb/36 min, and .72 blk/36 min, .593 eFG (probably not precise-this is simply the 12% worse value Hollinger uses on fg% applied to eFG).

Looks pretty good, eh?

Poll

If Rubio becomes the long term starting PG on this team, assuming we continue running the triangle and he performs relatively close to as projected, does his style of play change our player personnel strategy?

An interesting comparison

biggity2bit — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:42:42 -0000

I thought this was an interesting exercise in revealing the limitations-and strengths-of using stats to inform our picture of a player, as well as scouting out potential help for us.

Which of these 6'-8" players would you rather have?

(Note: all numbers are per 36 minutes for players A and B)

FGs (made/att) FTs (made/att) Reb Stl Blk TO Ast

A. 5.3/14 (.381) 2.3/3.5 (.642) 5.3 2.3 .8 2.4 2.5

B. 6.2/16.1 (.382) 2.3/3.2 (.741) 4.9 2.1 .6 2.4 3.4

One player is making nearly $6 million this season and is considered an up and coming star, the other is making almost $3 million this year and flying under the radar. Both play great defense. Player A is 24, while Player B is 25. I think either of these wing players could help this team.

Any guesses as to who these players are?

Poll

Do you think either of these two young wing players could help the Wolves long term, or would you rather draft Evan Turner?

Yes, either player would help the Wolves right now.

3 votes

Yes, but still draft Evan Turner-neither of these guys shoot that well.

19 votes

No, forget 'em and let's draft Evan Turner and let the fun begin!

11 votes

No, we need to sign a FA. Draft BPA (which might be Turner anyways).

8 votes

41 votes | Poll has closed

Entry on Paul and Deron's development

biggity2bit — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:19:46 -0000

Entry on Paul and Deron's development

Scroll towards the middle or end where he talks about the development of Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Sounds promising for JFly.

Three biggest ways we're sucking right now

biggity2bit — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:37:47 -0000

I was curious as to what part of our team performance is breaking down most (offensively and defensively), so I decided to use 82games' team data to compare our hometown squad to what I would imagine Rambis' ideal flows to be (e.g. the LA Lakers).

The results, as you may expect, reinforce the picture we already have of our team: not enough ball flow, not enough shooters or makers, and not enough interior defense (although this could also be interpreted as not enough perimeter defense).

The comparisons are nice, as possessions per game are almost equal (94 to 95, Min to LA).

I began by looking at the shot clock stats. My thinking was that if LA is running the triangle how it is supposed to be run, it would offer us insight into what we should be watching for as our guys develop their ability to run it. Interestingly the percentage of shots taken within each time segment (0-10, 11-15, 16-20, and 21+) for each team are within 1 percentage point of each other. In all cases, LA is the superior shooting team, but where they really excel over us is deep in the shot clock (but before the hail mary shots).

When 16-20 seconds has elapsed the Lakers are .082 better in eFG% than we are (.504 to .422), leading to 4.3 more points than us. Considering that just under a quarter of both teams' total shots come this deep in the shot clock, a +4.3 point margin is huge. For comparison both teams also attempt a quarter of their overall shots between 11-15 seconds in, with LA only holding a +1.5 point advantage in points scored over us. What this suggests to me is that LA is using superior ball movement and clearly superior 3 point shooting (as evidenced through scoring differential and eFG%).

The other big observation is our atrocious assist rate. LA roundly surpasses us in this area, and the return of Love combined with ever growing familiarity with the offense will hopefully help us in this regard. On average, though, LA's assist rate percentage is over 10% higher than ours for 90% of their shots (meaning that on 9 out of 10 shots LA takes, the shot is assisted 62% of the time, whereas our shots are assisted only 50% of the time).

Defensively squads attack the Lakers early in the clock more often than they attack us. For the most part we're relatively equal, with the Lakers holding the edge over us. The greatest point of failure for us, though, is again after 16 seconds. Our opponents have attempted 39% of their total shots after 16 seconds have passed on shot clock (compared to only 30% for the Lakers' opponents), and we have given up 9.1 more points than the Lakers on those shots! Furthermore we allow almost 70% of those shots to be assisted, whereas the Lakers allow only 55.5%. Something is breaking down on our defensive rotations deep in the shot clock, and it's leading to far too many easy looks for opposing teams.

In terms of shot selection, where we are getting beat soundly by the Lakers is in attacking the rim ("close" shots and dunks). LA is getting 8.5 more points than us while only attempting 5% more close shots/dunks (as a percentage of total attempts). Again, their assist rate on this is significantly better, especially on dunks.

Defensively we're allowing too many open looks on our opponents' jumps shots, giving up 5.8 more points than the Lakers. Our close shot defense is actually better than the Lakers', but we're getting schooled on dunks. Again, the assist rate on the dunks is absurd-87% of our opponents' dunks are assisted, compared to only 66% of the Lakers' opponents'.

The number of bad passes we have is also bad, but I think this will improve greatly by the end of the season.

So, in summary, it appears that ball movement and shooting/making, combined with a better interior presence are where we are failing the most right now. I have hope that Love's return will help significantly in the ball movement area, as will Flynn and Brewer's ability to make better passes in the future. We also straight up need better shooters. Pechovic is among our best, and that about says everything. Pavlovic and Wilkens shouldn't be shooting, and Gomes is not shooting well at all. Where's Wally World when you need him? Finally, we really do need the oft stated defensive center, or some warm body to intimidate in the middle on defense. Adding a Tyson Chandler or even a Samuel Dalembert (not getting into contract issues) would probably swing our scoring differential by 3-4 points per game, and probably represent the easiest way to do so (instead of trying to get a scorer, although I really don't know).

What I don't understand is exactly why our defense breaks down so much after 16 seconds? I know from watching some of the games that guys are either getting out of position or not rotating, but why do we look so bad? Is it a schematic thing? Lack of focus? Too many young guys? I'm appealing to greater basketball minds to help inform this.

Finally, I will leave y'all with this, from the ever talkative Wayne Winston:

By the way to improve a team’s performance by 20 points a game, you need only score one more basket or give up one less basket on around one out of 20 possessions (assuming 200 possessions per game).

Poll

Which is most easily remedied this year, via trades, player development, or coaching/scheme?

Our shooting and making

5 votes

Ball movement/assist rate

14 votes

Defensive interior presence

3 votes

Other (leave comment explaining/offering)

2 votes

24 votes | Poll has closed

Ellington to D-League?

biggity2bit — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:54:14 -0000

Ellington to D-League?

From Strib:
Rookie Wayne Ellington has not played two of the past three games, and played fewer than four minutes in that third game. Rambis said sending Ellington to the NBA Development League to get him some playing time is an option. "There's benefits for being around and practicing with an NBA team," Rambis said. "There's also a value in playing as well. Those are things that are open for discussion."