SB Nation User Blog: biggity2bit

Diamond Ratings; Corey Brewer

biggity2bit — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:07:55 -0000

I don't know how I found this, but it's a system that tries to unearth the most likely breakout performers by looking at their per minute production. Essentially the idea is that if a player is productive off the bench per minute, and (here's the subjective part it, which the author admits) they are capable of being a starter and thus earn starter's minutes, then the said player should still produce at the same rate, just with more minutes per game. Make sense? Good.

Some of the guys on this year's top ten, given this thought process, makes sense: M. Speights, Gortat, DeAndre Jordan, JaVale McGee, and Roy Hibbert (for examples).

So I got to wondering who on the Wolves, if any, would merit a 'breakout' watch based on this system? Using their formula and win% as the per minute production stat (again, what they use), hit the jump for the top TWolves breakout candidates.

The Twolves Breakout Player list!!!

1. Stewie Pecherov, 14.75 diamond rating

2. Ryan Hollins, 13.57 diamond rating

3. Ramon Sessions, 10.08 diamond rating (I know, he's already 'broken out,' but what the hell)

4. Corey Brewer, 4.88 diamond rating

5. Sasha P., 2.67 diamond rating

6. Damien Wilkins, 1.31

So basically what I take out of this is that (in no particular order):

-Sessions is a very solid, steady starter

-Sasha Pavlovic and Damien Wilkins are what they are at this point, and that is Role Player(s)

-Hollins and Stewie P. might surprise as the season goes on, although Stewie P. is my candidate for this year's Craig Smith impersonator (that player who's really good at one thing to the detriment of all else on the court).

-Corey Brewer has not lived up to expectations or his development schedule.

This brings me to part 2 of this post: what are we supposed to make of Corey Brewer?

After reading this article, I got to thinking about Brewer's preseason and whether or not he can transfer it to the regular season. Where I ended up was with the realization that perhaps Brewer is closer to changing games positively for us than I initially thought.

Looking at his preseason averages some things stood out:

Pts/g = 16.8!

Reb/g = 4.6

Stls/g = 2.4

Asts/g = 1.6

FTA/g = 8.8!

Do I think Brewer will average over 16 a game this year? Not in my wildest dreams. Could he average 4 boards and a couple steals a game? Certainly. That leaves us with FTAs. I couldn't figure out whether or not these kinds of per game numbers are really good or just so-so (understanding that it'd be fantastic if we got this from Brewer this year), so I turned to Basketball-reference for some help. I'll get to my findings in a second, but the short story is that, in my opinion, if Brewer can get to the line at a good to solid rate this year and maintains his rebounding and steals/game rates, we will have found ourselves at player at the SG position.

Look at this. This assumes Brewer averages 12 pts, 4 boards, 2 steals, and 4 FTA's a game. That is some good company. The one guy that jumps out at me the most is Kendall Gill, probably because I remember how good at stealing he was. I'd take Gill-like production from Brewer over Brew's career. But some of the other guys aren't too shabby either.

So what's Hoopus' take on Brewer? Confused like me? Optimistic? Cynical? Cautiously intrigued?

And in case you're wondering what company Brewer would be in if he maintained his small sample size preseason production throughout the season? Don't look unless you want to scratch your head even more.

Poll

Brewer will help us win most if...

...he averages over 12 points a game.

23 votes

...he averages over 4 boards and 2.5 steals a game.

9 votes

..he is able to average over 4.5 FTAs per game.

5 votes

...he becomes a legitimate defensive stopper.

32 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

FTA this preseason

biggity2bit — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 04:44:50 -0000

FTA this preseason

Offensive offensive line? and an observation on schedule strength

biggity2bit — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 03:21:40 -0000

This post is interested in understanding and drawing comparisons between recent season's offensive line play and this year's O-line and is not intended to be a rah-rah or 'aren't they so great' post. Just wanted to get that out there right away so if people aren't interested in reading my questioning of the Vikes they won't have to.

Having said that, are there any great football minds out there who have questions about our offensive line like I do? A lot has been made about AD getting stuffed a lot, and I am beginning to think that there's something to that than just 8 guys in the box. Favre offsets a lot, but why are teams still so focused on stopping Adrian? And perhaps more to the point, if Adrian truly is the best RB in football, why isn't he performing better? Cris Carter produced despite the focus of the D, same with Moss. Randle used to be triple teamed and still produced. I don't buy that AD is the best RB in the NFL and can't run against 8 or 9 guys in the box, especially with Favre as QB.

Adrian's rushed for the lowest yardage total through five games of his career while having the best QB play of his career. In my mind this doesn't add up, and I can think of these potential reasons:

1) the O-line is banged up/not as good (yet) as they've been. I think Hutch is hurting more than we know, and I think we're missing Birk more than we know. Loadholt is an upgrade, but this line (so far) is the weak link of our offense and our extended post-season dreams.

2) the play calling strategy is ill-informed, in that Chilly's tendency to not care whether the other team knows what you're going to do or not and rely on execution hurts this team's performance and efficiency over the long haul. Expecting your team to physically beat the other team when they know what's coming is stupid and short-sighted. Eventually we'll need to know how to strategically and tactically beat or adjust to an opponent (like the Eagles in the playoffs last year). This is a weakness of Childress, and one that I think is influencing our ability to AD in a position to succeed. He's been looking too much like Leroy Hoard lately.

3) AD isn't as good as everyone thinks. There. I said it. The best RB in the NFL actually isn't the best RB in the NFL, and Emmit Smith was right when he said that he'd have to learn to be productive against 8-9 man fronts if he wanted to play for a championship. Maybe averaging 60-70 yards against such fronts is being productive, I don't know. All I know is that I believe this option is the least likely to be true, and that I frequently get frustrated by the lack of creativity and diversity in play calling and formation in putting AD in a position to succeed.

So, what do y'all think? Am I off base? Anybody else seeing/thinking what I'm thinking?

Lastly, my homer moment: we're hearing a lot about how the Vikes might not be so good because they've played such an easy schedule. I'll offer this up for consideration, courtesy of the good folks over at Footballoutsiders.com:

Through week 4, ranking of SOS of teams played:
Baltimore 3-1, 28th (or 4th easiest)

Pittsburgh 2-2, 26th (or 6th easiest)

Green Bay 2-2, 20th (or 12th easiest)

Minnesota 4-0, 29th (or 3rd easiest)

Poll

Biggest concern on offense going forward

O-line cohesion

22 votes

O-line health

16 votes

O-line talent

10 votes

Playcalling

22 votes

None of the above (leave comment)

7 votes

77 votes | Poll has closed

49ers-Vikings Sims

biggity2bit — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 20:31:07 -0000

I did this last week, and it turned out fairly accurate (at least in predicting a two TD victory for the Vikes), so I thought I'd do it again for this game and see what the major storylines are.

This time I ran 60 sims with the assumption that both teams are going to favor the run. The results are a lot closer than last week--Vikes win 35, 49ers win 25 (a 58% chance of winning).

On the whole the Vikings score more points, and win by a slightly larger margin (on average) than the 49ers did (we win by 13 on average, and when we lose it's by 9 on average).

Looking at just our losses, one big trend emerges: Gore outrushes Adrian, by about 30-40 yards. Interestingly neither QB turns it over hardly at all, and don't toss for many TDs either. In fact, in close games (3 points difference or less), the QBs really don't influence the outcome of the game much at all. Both teams often overcome negative sack and turnover differentials to win, with the victor of the AD/Gore sweepstakes always determining the winner (in about 10-12 game sample size). Sacks are also pretty consistent, with about 2-3 for each team per game.

So let's hope Adrian is motivated and has a big game, because however he goes is how we go this game.

Poll

Which is more likely?

Adrian rushes for less than 75 yards

46 votes

Gore rushes for more than 100 yards

60 votes

106 votes | Poll has closed

If we'd kept Brandon Roy

biggity2bit — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 16:28:42 -0000

If we'd kept Brandon Roy

Swap Foye for Roy and look at our pythagorean win total (lower right numbers). Not nearly as big a difference as I might have thought.

Introducing the face of the Twolves

biggity2bit — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 14:19:34 -0000

I saw this over at four letter.

When Ricky Rubio told the Minnesota Timberwolves that he would not be coming to the NBA this year, fellow rookie Jonny Flynn instantly gained a lot more playing time...
As disappointed as the Timberwolves are that Rubio will be staying in Spain for at least the next two seasons, Flynn had to be pleased with the side benefits, right? Not so fast.

"Especially for a guy like me, he can make me so much better," Flynn told The Associated Press. "I would have sat here and learned from him. I would have taken things out of his game and put them into my game.

"You definitely lose something that could have made our team better. But that's the decision he made and I guess we're just going to have to wait for maybe two years until he comes over here."

...
Rather than viewing Rubio as competition, Flynn said he sees Rubio's four years of playing in the top pro league in Europe, along with his experience in the Olympics with the Spanish national team, as resources to be tapped.

If we had any doubts about Flynn's ability to be the emotional leader of this team, this story seals the deal for me. I know it can be read as Flynn just saying the right things, and that Flynn hasn't proven anything yet. And maybe that is the truth.

What I hear, however, is a player who knows that you don't win alone, a player who seeks every advantage to improve both himself and his team, a player who is not intimidated by challenges and competition, and a player who chooses (or wants) the success of his team over his own personal success. Am I drinking a bit of Kool-Aid? Perhaps. Am I wearing some rosy glasses? Yes.

Are we about to witness the beginnings of the best leader the Wolves have had since KG? I think so. After this season Flynn will be the heart of this franchise, if not it's face.

Poll

Which of these statements is more accurate?

Jonny Flynn will be the heart of the Twolves.

69 votes

Kevin Love is the conscience of the Twolves.

8 votes

Big Al is the leader of the Twolves.

18 votes

Shaddy McCants is a great poet.

13 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

Vikings-Lions sim results

biggity2bit — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 17:56:07 -0000

It's a bit of a slow day at work, so I ran some quick sims of the Vikings-Lions. It was triggered by something PA said this morning on KFAN, and that was that last year the team seemed more anxious before games--even the Lions games--and this year they seem confident and relaxed. PA openly wondered if it was because, when they looked around last year at each other and saw guys like AD, Chester, Hutch, Berrian, Williams Wall, JA, our LBs, Winfield and more, they all thought that they should win except for the hit-or-miss play from QB. That one position could unravel it all, and this year with Favre there's none of that worry.

So my question is: should we really be worried about playing the Lions this weekend or should we relax and enjoy watching such a talent loaded Vikings squad and trust that they will take care of business handily?

The results after the jump.

The good news is that the Vikes went 56-7 (89% win rate) over the 63 simulations I ran, so I think we're going to be OK this weekend. Our average margin of victory was over 2 touchdowns, with the average score being 34-17.

The simulator I used allows you to tweak the offensive preferences between balanced, favor run, favor pass, and WCO. I ran three sets of 21 sims with different offensive parameters. Here are the results:

1). Both team offensively balanced.

Vikes go 20-1. Average score 36-19.

2. Vikes favor run, Lions are balanced.

Vikes go 19-2. Average score 33-18.

3. This is the scenario I think is most likely, and the group of sims that yields the greatest insight of what to watch for this weekend:

Vikes favor run, Lions favor pass.

Vikes go 17-4. Average score 33-17. In the four losses there was one similarity that trumped turnover margin (which we won in 3 of the 4 sims), sacks, or anything else, and that was this: a big game (100 yards+ with 2 TDs) by Calvin Johnson combined with a subpar game (less than 100 yards and 1 TD or less) from Adrian Peterson. If Adrian has a good game and Calvin has a good game, we win. If Adrian has bad game and Calvin has a bad game, we win. It's only when Adrian is really bad and Calvin does what he's supposed to that we have a chance of losing.

For what it's worth, the scoring average in our 7 losses: Lions win 28-21.

Poll

Which of these is the most likely result next weekend?

Vikings give up more than 13 points

53 votes

Vikings give up less than 13 points

79 votes

132 votes | Poll has closed

Sessions, from Brew Hoop and more

biggity2bit — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:24:23 -0000

For those of us still trying to get an idea of just what Ramon Sessions brings to the Wolves, here are some quotes I found over at the Bucks' SBNation blog, Brew Hoop.

Post

When I got to looking through the Basketball Prospectus stats for Ramon, I really was amazed at all the things that he brings to the table.

His WARP (Wins Above Replacement Level Player) is 6.4, the best on the Milwaukee Bucks. Basically that means if you took a team full of replacement level players, and put Ramon Sessions at the point, they would win about 6.4 games more than expected based on his talent alone. The next closest is Charlie Villanueva at 5.9, not surprisingly the other guy the Bucks will have trouble retaining. Andrew Bogut is at 3.4, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute at 2.4, Luke Ridnour at 2.4, Michael Redd at 2.3, and Richard Jefferson at 1.9.

What makes Sessions so valuable, other than the fact that he's arguably the Bucks most talented point guard? He dishes out the ball well. His assists/40 mins mark is up to 8.4, and he averages 5.6 assists per game. His pass rating (a combination of assists normalized by minutes played, and assist/turnover ratio) is up at 6.06, by far the best on the team. This rating puts him near the top of the league, and he even ranks better than the likes of Tony Parker (5.54), but not quite up to the caliber of Steve Nash, Jason Kidd or Rajon Rondo yet (all in the double digits).

Furthermore, Sessions is a big part of the offense. He hands out an assist on 9.2% of the team's possessions which seems low, but when you think about it, it's a good margin (also puts him among the top in the league). He is responsible for creating 1039 points for the Bucks this year, in some fashion or another - about 13.5 per game.

What sets Sessions apart from Ridnour as the other point guard option on the team, in addition to what has been said, is his defense. Sessions only had 937 points created against him this season so far, which means that he created close to 1.5 points more per game than he allowed. His dMULT is 0.959 which means that he held his counterpart to about 96% of their normal production on a per possession basis. Compare these stats with Ridnour, who allows about 1.2 more points per game than he creates and allows his counterpart to score about 102% of their normal production.

Post

Sessions is an intruiging young player who has put up some crazy numbers over his 1.5 seasons. He's not a great athlete, but has good size for the pros. His speed is adequate, as is his defense. Where he's special is when he can get penetration on the defense and use that pressure to distribute the ball or draw fouls. This is mitigated somewhat by his sub-par dribbling skills (a trait an NBA point guard should not at all have), but it hasn't really shown yet.

In a way, Jennings and Sessions are polar opposites of each other [Ed. observation--this gets crazy interesting if you replace Jennings with Flynn. Discuss]. Jennings is lightning-quick, Sessions is not. Jennings is almost tiny, Sessions is not. Jennings will often look for his own shot, Sessions does not. Jennings takes risks and makes poor decisions, Sessions does not.

Here's an interview Sessions did:

Matt Watson: You were filling in for [Michael] Redd for a while. Is that a role that you're comfortable in, or do you have a preference of wanting the ball in your hands?
Ramon Sessions: I've been playing the one my whole career; this is the first time I've ever played the two, this season. But I mean, hey, if I have to go out there and play the two, I'll do it. I'll guard bigger guys and play the shooting guard position, it really don't matter – as long as I'm out there on the floor getting playing time, helping the team.

And finally, if you had to choose between Raymond Felton and Ramon Sessions, who would you choose?

Verdict: If I were a team that needed a point guard, I would have to go with Sessions - assuming they came at similar price tags. Especially if I were a run-and-gun team, Sessions would be a better fit.

Poll

How likely is it the signing of Sessions will cost us a first rounder next year (the Clippers pick)?

Very likely.

3 votes

It'll be close either way.

17 votes

Unlikely.

34 votes

Let's march on McHales' cabin with torches and shovels demanding justice for the idiocy of giving the Clippers that pick!

15 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Putting back KLove

biggity2bit — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 20:31:20 -0000

Ah, beloved LMA. God's gift to all of us. My day is brightened having mentioned his name.

But seriously though, courtesy of the sizable debate(s) comparing Love and LMA (ooh, a bluebird just landed on my shoulder!) a meme has developed about KLove regarding his scoring potential in the future--namely, that he's too short and thus can't get his own shot off/grabs his own rebounds (inflating his rebound %)/gets a lot of his points off of his own putbacks.

In essence, the long term offensive potential of KLove is diminished because he depends too much on putbacks, dunks, and other similar shots.

This is wrong, and here's the proof.

If you followed the link, you'll discover a wondeful blog entry looking at the NBA players who were most dependent on "easy shots", (easy shots being layups, dunks, alley-oops, tips, and putbacks).

For layups, our formerly own Craig Smith was third most dependent on layups last year, taking 54% of his total shots as layups, (er, should that be 'laying 54% of his total shots as layups'?). Not much else noticeable here.

Moving on to dunks, turns out one Mr. Greg Oden led the league in % of shots as dunks, coming in at almost 28% of his total shots. Fifth was Joel Pryz with almost 24%. Still no Love though (or any current TWolf for that matter, for either layups or dunks).

Alley-oops are next, and they are utterly dominated by two players: Tyson Chandler and Deandre Jordan. I would be very happy if Corey Brewer cracks this list next year.

Next up are putbacks. Kevin Love is suspiciously absent again this list, meaning that less than 2.34% of KLove's total shots are from putbacks.

Finally we get to tips. KLove cracks this list at #19, just ahead of Mr. Oden. Przy ranks third, at over 20% of his total shots, compared to KLove's 6.8%.

So what do we take from this? Cheap baskets by big men appear to be dictated by two things--playing with a great guard who can get you the ball for easy dunks, alley-oops, tips, and the like; and being athletically gifted enough to sky high (Dwight Howard ranked among the tops in many of these categories, for example). If you believe that per minute, per 36, or % of reb collected out of total opportunites are better stats than simple ppg, rpg, etc., then KLove is far more offensively productive than just easy putbacks and tips of his own misses.

Poll

What will KLove's pts/36 be next year (he average 15.8 last year)?

0-10 pts/36

7 votes

10-13 pts/36

5 votes

13-16 pts/36

51 votes

16-17 pts/36

138 votes

18-20 pts/36

131 votes

20+ pts/36

26 votes

More than LMA

20 votes

378 votes | Poll has closed

Favre practicing

biggity2bit — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 20:05:26 -0000

Favre practicing

There's been concern about how the locker room will take to Favre. Interesting to note that the first guy he speaks with on the field is Leber (not afraid to speak his mind) and the first offensive guy is Hutch (probably the most important offensive veteran leader on the team pre-Favre). Bet P-Will would've been first if he hadn't been in court.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.