SB Nation User Blog: bignerd

For Redskins Fans, Hard Luck Runs Into Team's Hard Line

bignerd — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 05:25:06 -0000

For Redskins Fans, Hard Luck Runs Into Team's Hard Line

In summary this article is about the Washington Redskins suing their loyal season ticket holders for breach of contract when they no longer have money to pay for future tickets. These are season ticket holders whose wealth and lively hood have been wiped out by the economy. Instead of canceling the contact the Redskins take them to court and still make them pay for tickets they've already sold to someone else.

NFL Videos Week #3

bignerd — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 06:39:49 -0000

I've been hanging around here long enough, it's about time I contributed something. Ok, it's really next to nothing but technically next to nothing is a small bit of something. In my defense, the word something is a purposely vague quantification to begin with so essentially you are getting what I promised, next to nothing but similarly something.

Without further promotion here are your NFL Video choices of the week:

49ers vs Vikings Previews

NFL Films Week 3: 49ers vs. Vikings Preview. Simple analysis, lots of team highlights and a bit of build up. Ya, I love this stuff.

Here is Adrian Peterson reassuring fantasy owners about his upcoming match up against the stout the 49ers defense. He says he's got it all figured out yet looks a bit uncomfortable when asked about Patrick Willis.

Speaking of Adrian Peterson vs Patrick Willis, NFL Network has it topping their Top 10 matchups for WeeK 3

49ers Week Cleanup

NFL Weekly Countdown #1: Gore's Historic Day - Yep, a few good looks at Frank Gore's two best career runs against Seahawks last week.

Always a favorite of mine, 49ers vs Seahawk highlights as called by the team's radio announcers

49ers post game press conference videos featuring Singletary, Hill and the one man offense Frank Gore. Does anyone know what Coach Singletary is talking about at the beginning of his press conference?

Here is Mike Singletary's reaction when asked about the Michael Crabtree holdout. Here is our Fooch - Dr. Lou Holtz Video of the Week, Mike Singletary's alternative reaction when is asked about the Michael Crabtree's holdout.

Free Fantasy Football Advice

Who doesn't love complaining about fantasy football performances? NFL Network got this feature right, they hired a few stat geeks that never got a whiff of playing real football and now we get to watch them complain about players like you and me. However, they get a blonde.

Oh, the waiver wire! Here is some advice leading up to Week 3

Talent vs. Matchup debate - You decide the winner? Probably those who decided to skip this video.

Clip of the Week

I wish had Showtime because I love Inside the NFL. Phil Sims versus Chris Collinsworth has become the premier rivalry of the NFL. You'd think these two would get along but Sims is intent on becoming the alpha dog of football analyst and never backs down from an opportunity to punch Collinsworth in the mouth.

Anyways here is a clip provided by Showtime talking about NFL Pretenders

Andrew Davidson Mining your way to Fantasy Gold Teaser

Andrew assures me his weekly preview will be out shortly but knew people were getting itchy so he's provided me a teaser.

Dear Andrew,

My fantasy football team has struggled out of the gate. I am 0-2 and have the 2nd lowest points total in the league at 164.7. My roster isn't all bad, I have Philip Rivers and Maurice Jones-Drew but I worry that Jones-Drew isn't a one man offense and Jacksonville's receivers are horrible so teams aren't even bothering to cover them, not to mention the team is down 20 by half so they don't even run the ball. Speaking of receiver trouble, Jason Campbell is killing my Santana Moss, T.O. is demanding Lee Evans footballs and well Roy Williams . . . do I need to explain?

~ Andrew Davidson

To Andrew,

No need to panic, there is plenty of football to be played. The natural instinct is to make dramatic roster changes to stem the tide. Give the season time. Those receives may not be producing now but they are getting rest while productive fantasy players are getting beat up on the field of play. Play the injury bug and wait for success. I've found it's best when another fantasy owner trash talks, like magic your team steps up and bad fortune sweeps across the league. Good luck and hang in there!

- Andrew Davidson

Yahoo 2009 49ers Team Preview

bignerd — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 18:52:00 -0000

Yahoo 2009 49ers Team Preview

"I think they’ve got the right coach in Mike Singletary; I just don’t think they have the personnel department. They’ve blown picks every year – free agent, draft picks. They just spin their wheels [at] 6-10, 7-9. You wonder what they’re trying to do. They don’t get better. They overspend on free agents. In the draft, Alex Smith they missed on. Vernon Davis(notes) has been a big disappointment. And now, Michael Crabtree is like a prima donna. …"

Unlike last year's Yahoo NFL team previews, this year's isn't all popcorn and bubble gum analysis. The quote above from their Opponents View section, which is off the record comments from other teams. I highly recommend the Opponent View reads. IMO, football analysis gold.

The quote above was published before the entire Marvel Smith fiasco.

Andy Lee Drinking Game

bignerd — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 07:52:32 -0000

Play along as 49ers punter Andy Lee punts a hole into the Dallas Cowboys stadium scoreboard. What's better than a new $1.2 billion dollar stadium? Well how about a new $1.2 billion dollar stadium where the designers neglected to raise the scoreboard high enough to avoid the leg of the lonely punter. It's not every day you get to see David toss his stone to knockout Goliath. In this case the stone is the punted pigskin and Goliath is the swelling pride of America's Team's super stadium. Luckily for us, there is a drinking game that lets us all play along.

Fooch's Note: Just an amazing idea by bignerd! It's always entertaining to develop solid drinking games. Personally, I'd change "one shot" to "one drink of beer" or something like that. Otherwise, you're going to be passed out rather quickly, wouldn't you say? Or maybe that's the point given that it's preseason. Also, I changed the title to "Drinking Game" instead of "Shooter Game" so everybody's a little more clear on it. Enjoy...

The rules are simple. You need a shot glass and the drink of your choice. If any of the below happens during the broadcast of the 49ers vs Cowboys preseason game this Saturday than raise your glass and shoot the drink down.

1. One shot if the broadcast plays the clip of Titan's punter A.J. Trapasso hitting the scoreboard.

2. One shot if the broadcast plays a clip of Andy Lee hitting the scoreboard with a punt during pre-game warm ups.

3. One shot for every time the broadcast cuts to a shot of Jerry Jones just before an Andy Lee punt

4. One shot for every time Andy Lee punts the ball into the scoreboard.

5. One additional shot if the 49ers coverage team didn't even bother to pursue the kick knowing it was going to hit the scoreboard.

6. One shot if the broadcast cuts to Jerry Jones' uneasy face after Andy Lee punts the ball into his scoreboard.

7. Two shots if Coach Mike Singletary looks amused with Andy Lee punting the ball into the scoreboard.

8. One shot if any broadcaster makes an analogy between the new Cowboy Stadium and the Death Star.

9. One shot if Andy Lee is interviewed on the sideline during the broadcast and asked about punting the ball into the scoreboard.

10. One shot if any 49ers fan is spotted in the broadcast wearing an Andy Lee jersey.

11. Dallas punter Mat McBriar will be shot for hitting the scoreboard.

Update:

Thanks Fooch for the addendum of taking one drink instead of one shot, if you're not a hardcore drinker and want to be conscious before halftime.

In light of the new "Dallas do over" rule I thought it was appropriate to add one more rules to the list. (can also be called the "Jerry Jones is Roger Goodell's daddy rule")

12. One shot (or drink) if the broadcast explains the punt "do over" rule to the audience.

It was the Worst times and the Worstest of Times

bignerd — Wed, 20 May 2009 04:52:45 -0000

I think after the worst season in franchise history followed by the H-bomb dropped at the lottery some of us just need a place to vent and let out the frustration. Let’s make a deal. You keep the "hey, keep your head up optimism" out of this thread and we'll keep the bitter, pessimism out of the rest.

Yes, I know we have Petrie and he will find the best player out at #4. Not to mention, he's probably best guy to have to lead us out of this rabbit hole. Still, it doesn't look like the franchise will be getting that star boost in 2009-2010. Hopefully, he finds another solid player and we can finally land the franchise changer next year. Right now that looks like best case scenario (gulp, let’s hope). It would be nice to have one potential game changer on the roster. Every other team at least has hope and some guy to point to! Even Washington can look forward to the return of Gilbert Arenas.

Personally, I can write Bill Simmons next column. Clippers season ticket money is already in the mail. He'll make the argument that Mike Dunleavly was a visionary and tanked the season to land Blake Griffin as it was the only way to save the Clippers from obscurity. His better judgment will kick in and return Dunleavy to lucky, idiot status. He will than talk himself into believing Dunleavy will trade Eric Gordon and Griffin to the Celtics for Ray Allen and Big Baby Davis. Or he will argue the best teams should get the best players after this Clipper, Memphis, OKC disaster . . . is there a better time to argue it?

Speaking of apocalyptically bad trades, you do know Memphis holds the #2 pick, right!? 75% chance Rubio ends up the next mega-star Laker for freaking Trevor Ariza. Just so the Lakers don't feel jipped after the last deal, Memphis will throw in Marc Gasol.

How the *%!@ did OKC end up with the 3rd pick!?!?! In the last 3 drafts they have picked 2nd & 5th (2007), 5th (2008) and now 3rd (2009). Sorry to be so damn bitter but they already have two young stars in Durant and Westbrook. That franchise can KMFA! WTF have they done to get so lucky? They had a good team that kicked our ass in the playoffs than traded them away to rebuild because "they felt like it". There ex-owner sold the team the to the devil cause he was whining cry baby. The devil promptly stole the Sonics and moved them across the country. Maybe Joe and Gavin ought to create a Gestapo to attack season ticket holders if that’s how karma and luck works.

Finally, I'm looking forward to Blake Griffin's superior size and movability landing him a U-Haul sponsorship. The irony of his face plastered across the moving trucks pulled out in front Arco Arena is just too perfect.

Again, this is pessimist thread. It’s much needed for some of us. Keep your silver lining thoughts out (you have all the other threads). If you ask me, that silver lining spells out "Suck It Sacramento!"

The Weak NFC West

bignerd — Sat, 16 May 2009 06:29:08 -0000

FOOCH'S NOTE: Very solid article. Thought I'd roll this to the front page.

Every NFL pundit is going to shout this headline between now and the end of the 2009-2010 season. If you've already been watching NFL Network, ESPN NFL Live, or been reading the numerous NFL sources online than I'm sure you've read the answer to this question:

Can the Arizona Cardinals repeat there trip the Super Bowl? (always accompanied with a little chuckle)

Answer: Of course. There are obvious flaws on that team and they benefited from some luck last year. However all they have to do is beat up on their weak division opponents to get themselves back in the playoffs. We know, once you’re in the playoffs anything can happen. Look at the Cardinals last year!

Consider this article a declaration of war. Not on the Cardinals, but every pundit, TV analyst, journalist, beat writer or beatnik who utter this answer again.

Why declare war? I've head this answer for 23 years and counting (I'm confident its origins date back further than my attention span). The NFC West is full of crap teams and one ho-hum group is going to figure out how tie their shoe laces and punch their ticket to the playoffs. Year in and year out I hear this insult and eventual explanation of our division champion. I've heard it attached to the 49ers of 80's and 90's, Greatest Show on Turf Rams, Holmgren's Seahawks and now it's being stuck to the Arizona Cardinals.

According to the pundits we've been the cellar division for the better part three decades, even while switching out and bringing in new teams to the fold. Has the division really been that awful for such a long period of time or just the analysis? I believe it's the later. Football guys for all their acclaimed smarts just don't understand our division.

NFC West has been ruled by dominant champions

Dating back to the mid 1970's (as far as I care to look back for this discussion) the NFC West has been under the control of five teams: Rams late 70's, 49ers 80's-90's, Greatest Show on Turf Rams 99-01, Seahawks 04-07 and believe we are in the midst of a Cardinal era 2008-TBD.

A snarky analyst will say these teams have been boasted by the lackluster teams that comprise the rest of division. A smart analyst will see a trend. Beginning with the 49ers the NFC West has produced some of the NFL's all time great offenses with the tradition being continued by the Cards.

Everyone knows the 1st goal and step of an NFL team is to win their division. To win the West you need a team with a great offense (score 30+ points) along with enough defensive personnel to slow down your rivals great offense (not give up 40+ points) in order to topple the perennial division winner. These aren't the kind of teams you build overnight. It takes years to amass that much talent and teams are usually steam rolled by the division leader in the meantime.

Often the NFC West is grilled for having such hapless teams at the bottom. People have yet to realize that NFC West teams are forced to take a slower, much broader approach to building their teams if they want to compete with the division leader. Quick reloads don't get you anywhere in this division.

Ok, the NFC West always has one good team and the rest are crappy

In a sense you can say the NFC West doesn't produce as many wild card contenders as other divisions but I think there are a few good reasons for this.

Schedule favors the East and detracts from the West

The nerve of the Patriots and rest of the NFL to bellyache about having to travel so often to the West coast and play 1:00PM Pacific time games (4:00 PM Eastern, god forbid they complain about Sunday or Monday night prime time games). They said it cuts into preparation time and the players aren't used to that schedule. Lets all cry! It was such a crime that the rules committee passed a resolution preventing any non NFC/AFC West team from having to play no more than two 1:00 PM Pacific Time zone games a regular season (assuming you play both the NFC/AFC West). Jed York had a right to hit a few people over the head with a chair during that meeting.

It may be lost to the rest of the NFL, but NFC West teams are forced travel east on average of 3/4 times a regular season to play 10:00 AM Pacific Time games. Same travel distance, even less preparation time, and OMG is that an early start! A vast majority of those games end in losses for the road team. Are eastern teams really that much better across the board at home? No, it's a favorable quark in the schedule. Not only does it detract from the NFC West teams’ record, it also pads the record of the remaining NFC teams. Often this one or two game swing is the difference between a 9-7 playoff team and 8-8 or 7-9 team outside looking in. Our 2nd place team is usually outside looking in. Just a little hint, if you don't play in the NFC/AFC West your games start at 10:00 AM our time and their isn’t much difference between traveling to Chicago or ~~New York~~ New Jersey coming from San Fran.

NFC West teams don't have a great home field advantage

With the exception of Seattle no NFC West team has a great home field advantage to fall back on. Other than the players emerging from the tunnel, teams aren't intimidated or have to take extra preparation time to enter San Francisco, Arizona or St. Louis. The Rams used speed and fast turf to their advantage for awhile but it wasn't an atmosphere advantage, nor can it be counted on season after season. Rarely does an opponent have to deal with the noise level, momentum or intimidation of a rabid, noisy fan base. Not even a notable climate advantage can be seized. Two weather regulated dome teams and the Bay Area weather is absolutely pristine during the fall.

The AFC West is the opposite in this regard. The Raiders have the ever-so intimidating Black Hole. KC has a rabid, noisy fan base sitting on top of the field. Denver plays in the thin air of mile high. Even in sub par years these teams can count on the home field advantage to make themselves more competitive.

What about number of Pro Bowlers? Not so many in the NFC West.

Steve Mariucci has been touting this argument. He should know better and obviously the Emmy people don’t. In the NFL this factor has never been a strong indicator of player talent or roster strength. Winning teams send an inordinate amount of players to the pro bowl and while good players on non playoff teams get passed over. We’ve been over this before. If the 49ers go 9-7 and make a wildcard birth than Frank Gore, Patrick Willis and Andy Lee go to the Pro Bowl. At 7-9 we are lucky if one player gets sent.

Conclusion

To understand the level of competition in the NFC West you need to dig deeper than the records to get a true picture.

1) NFC West is dominated by a powerful, offensive juggernaut leader. Conversely it requires a higher, longer climb to supplant these teams as the division leader.

2) The schedules time zone quark (or fix) is a disadvantage to the NFC West and favors the rest of the NFC. This can be difference between wild card contender and non contender.

3) For the most part, NFC West teams don't have a natural home field advantage. It's easier in our division for a road team to steal a win and harder for our teams to protect the home turf.

Silver Lining

What doesn't get brought up enough is how many NFC Champions the NFC West has produced. Dating back to 1970 the NFC West has produced 11 champions with 13 other teams making it to the championship game. That's second only to the NFC East (12 champions + 17 championship game appearances). The Central/North/South conglomerate has been no where near as successful.

In the last 10 years the Rams (twice), Seahawks and Cardinals have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl. For such a terrible division we sure kick a lot of playoff tail.

A big reason for this playoff success has something to do with the factors above. You need a great offensive team while remaining stout on defense. You have to have superior talent to win early road games when your team is half asleep. You have to beat teams on talent and execution without the safety of a home field advantage. These same factors that drive the perception our division being weak also strengthen and make our division champion teams hardier.

Macro Lessons from the Draft

bignerd — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 03:51:01 -0000

I'd like to touch on a few of the big picture revelations that were exposed in the draft. We've already feverously debated draft the picks, players, strategies and expections. Consider this article the Lewis Black News that Slipped Through the Cracks segment of the 2009 NFL draft.

Scott McCloughan drafts for BPA

He said his philosophy is to draft the best player available regardless of need. Certainly proved to be true on draft day. Michael Crabtree WR (BPA) over Michael Oher OT (Need), 1st Round 2010 pick (BPA) over 2nd Round 2009 pick (Need), Glenn Coffee RB (BPA to Scotty) over Big or Speedy compliment RB (Need), Nate Davis QB (BPA) over any OLB, OT (major need). Yep, the man wasn't lying. For the teams sake lets hope next years draft aligns BPA with Need.

Jimmy Johnson's Draft Chart is Broken

The Jets barely gave up anything to get Cleveland out of the #5 pick. Swap of 1st round picks (#5 exchanged for #17), a 2nd round pick and 3 players the Jets were not going to play. Even sadder, the Browns traded back two times in the 1st round only to obtain two 6th round picks for the effort. Than again maybe the Browns are just stupid. The Patriots received substantially more for trading out of later picks.

Mike Nolan is being Setup as the Fall Guy in Denver

Poor Mike Nolan, desperate for a job he unknowingly hitched his wagon to the biggest con-artist in the NFL, Josh McDaniels. Before McDaniels decided to trade his best player and franchise QB in Jay Culter, all Nolan had to due was make a miniscule improvement to the Denver's defense in order to get that team on the winning track. With Culter gone, Nolan has to improve that defense dramatically for Denver to be even competitive. With 8 major holes on the Broncos defense what does McDaniels give Nolan for his 3-4 defense? Robert Ayers a 4-3 DE and a rookie 2nd round CB opposite of Champ Bailey. For the kid's mental sake lets hope he is the backup this year. Slick Rick McDaniels in an early move to keep his own job past 2009 uses the top pick on RB Knowshon Moreno. When Denver gets crushed this season McDaniels will tout his increased production at RB to save his own ass while happily feeding Nolan and his outmatched defense to the angry, blood thirsty mob.

Chicks dig Wolverine

For the females of the house the NFL Draft coverage might as well be a blank, white screen with no sound. The Wolvernie Origins trailer plays and it takes a crowbar to peel them away from television. I'm guessing his mutant power is pheromones.

Everyone can now predict a Raider Draft

Only two guys before the draft predicted the Raiders would draft Darrius Heyward-Bey in favor of Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin. The rest of us knew better but didn't think they were crazy enough to do it. For now on every football fan on the planet will be able to construct the Raiders draft board. We should appreciate the simplicty of Al Davis's process.

Two steps:

1. Download all the draft prospects from NFL.com and load into Excel.

2. Sort players by 40 yard time. Waala!

Attention High School Football Players hoping to play on Sundays! Do not accept any letter from a team that runs the Spread Offense!

I'm sure this wont' be popular in Lubbock either but it must be said. NFL teams don't like players who played college in the spread offense! You can be an NFL level talent, put up gawdy college numbers and be the star of ESPN's College Game Day and pro scouts will still look at you sideways. An also-had talent like USC Patrick Turner playing in a Pro style offense gets selected in the 4th round while productive Quan Cosby in Texas Tech's spread goes undrafted. Furthermore NFL sized and armed Graham Harrell and Chase Daniel who were both seniors and Heisman canidates go undrafted while a junior, publicly decried as unprepared by his college coach Mark Sanchez is the darling of the draft. Even the Raiders gained consideration with critiques explaining that they choose Heyward-Bey because he came from a pro style offense.

Bottom line, scouts like to put on tape and evaluate what you can do. To them watching you play in a spread offense is like predicting your vertical leap on Earth from tape of you jumping on Mars. Rather than put their job on the line with a guess they will go with someone who can evaluate.

Attention High School Football Players hoping to play on Sundays! Find a college team that runs the 3-4 Defense!

Really, the math on this one is pretty simple. Roughly 30% of NFL teams are now running a 3-4 defense whereas the percentage of college teams running the 3-4 defense is nowhere near. Based on the same principal that NFL scouts like to watch and not guess, it appears the shortest route to the NFL stage is college production in a 3-4 defense. For example, Larry English - he knows the LB role in the 3-4 and can rush the QB. Boom! He is now 1st round draft pick $$$!

The requirements are simple: finish college weighing 260lbs+, ability to move in space, have pass rushability and use college for 3-4 defensive training. NFL teams will slit throats to draft you. Any uber-atheltic kid projected to be college DE/LB can meet this criteria. An absolute must for any kid considered to small to play the 4-3 DE at NFL level. If you need help finding a college who runs the 3-4 defense contact my friend Jeff Tedford. He guarantee's a top notch Division I football program with fantastic televison exposure with at least 5 major broadcast games each year (SEC opponent, USC, Oregon, ~~Stanford~~, additional PAC-10 opponent and Bowl Game . . . and that's national, not just regional coverage!). Also any soon to be 300lb+ kid who aspires to make a NFL salary for 8 years for merely fighting and occupying blockers in the trenches . . . Thanks!

Favorite 49er Shop Item

bignerd — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 05:31:58 -0000

Favorite 49er Shop Item

Can't wait to roll into Candlestick sporting this authentic team jersey.

Uniform Check Please! Checkout the photos posted on the 49ers website of their offseason training...

bignerd — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 20:51:49 -0000

Uniform Check Please!

Checkout the photos posted on the 49ers website of their offseason training program.

Adam Snyder and Chilo Rachal photos illustrate my point the best.

Upon Further Review - Michael Crabtree Not an Elite Prospect

bignerd — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 08:59:07 -0000

Sorry to burst Mel Kiper's bubble but Michael Crabtree is not a top NFL prospect. Top NFL WR prospects have tremendous size, speed and have demonstrated how to use those athletic attributes in college to make you believe they will dominate in the faster, bigger, tougher NFL.

Michael Crabtree in my estimation has demonstrated none of the above criteria to warrant such admiration and in my estimation is on route to becoming an infamous NFL bust.

I read a favorable comparison of Michael Crabtree to Calvin Johnson. Well to prove my point, let’s just compare Crabtree’s measurables to Calvin Johnson’s along with other recent highly touted NFL prospects:

Calvin Johnson - Height: 6-5, 4.35 sec 40 yard dash, 45" vertical jump
Braylon Edwards - Height 6-3, 4.40 sec 40 yard dash, 38" vertical jump
Larry Fitzgerald - Height 6-3, 4.48 sec 40 yard dash, 35" vertical jump
Michael Crabtree - Height 6-1 3/4, 4.54 sec 40 yard dash*, 34" vertical jump*

* College reported measurements

The first measurement (and only official measurement) to jump out about Crabtree is his height. He is not a tall receiver of the likes Johnson, Edwards or Fitzgerald. In fact, he's not tall at all for a receiver of NFL standards.

Judging by his lack of height you have to question whether Crabtree can win the vertical battle in the NFL. In fact, what often differentiates the top NFL receivers from the rest is the ability to win the jump ball from the defender. At 6-1 Crabtree is already at a disadvantage to the receivers mentioned.

We lack a vertical leap measurement on Crabtree because of his injury prior to the combine so we're just left checking the tape. I looked at the tape. Not only could I not find evidence of superior on field leaping ability but saw he often failed to attack the ball at the highest point. In traffic, he had a penchant for diving backwards for the ball to make the catch. It proved effective in college, but NFL defenders are not going to misjudge the flight of the ball giving him the chance to complete the catch behind them. Anyone expecting Larry Fitzgerald's high acrobatics or Megatron’s never ending reach isn’t going to see that play from Michael Crabtree.

No. 1 NFL receivers who lack height often make it up with superior speed. I think I've pretty well proven Crabtree won't be a Calvin Johnson or Braylon Edwards but maybe he's of the Santana Moss, Steve Smith mold of top receivers with blazing speed. Checking the combine numbers Santana Moss ran 4.35 40 yard dash and Steve Smith ran a 4.38. I haven't read anyone outside the Lubbock cheerleader squad who thinks Crabtree runs below 4.5 sec 40 yard dash. Again, you can refer to the tape but it's often pointed out Crabtree faced inferior talent provided by Texas Tech's schedule. Yes, he looks fast but he isn't out running anyone to make you believe he is 4.35 fast.

If he doesn't have superior size or superior speed than he really is a low-end NFL deep threat or even worse an NFL slot receiver. Neither comparison makes him a viable top 10 NFL prospect. Drafting him that high would put him in the reach category of a Peter Warrick, albeit Crabtree is taller. Than again, top slot receivers are precise route runners. Crabtree needs a lot work in that area.

Yes, but he's a football player and winner . . .

No denying Michael Crabtree was a great college football player and Texas Tech achieved a greater fame with him. However, if you go back to his most famous play, the game winner against Texas, the play was more of a mistake by the Texas safety than a great play by Crabtree. You can see the CB intentionally shadowing Crabtree to attack the ball underneath but it was safety that blew the coverage by also attacking the ball underneath instead of staying behind the play to make the safe tackle. Crabtree made the mistake of running the route 6 yards short of the end zone and the safety let him off the hook.

The abilities that do translate to the NFL are Crabtree’s great hands; ability to shake off arm tackles and good open field running, but that doesn't make him a special NFL prospect. As Reggie Bush found out, open field running in the NFL can be a rare commodity. Also to use those hands Crabtree will need to become a better, more deceptive route runner and display the ability to body the defender from the ball at the point of attack.

What about the immeasurables? No doubt Crabtree is a good kid who was a pleasure for the coaching staff, teammates and the campus. He is no knucklehead or malcontent but I question whether his college experience has prepared him for the culture shock of the NFL. I also question whether he is a workaholic, which is needed to survive in the NFL.

How many of you know that Mike Leach likes to keep the size of his play book exorbitantly low in order to give his kids more time for class? In 2 years at Texas Tech Crabtree had to learn a total of 35 plays. Let me repeat . . .35 PLAYS! Every high school football team in the country has a more elaborate play book. I have to believe such a minuscule playbook makes college life easy and the game more fun. Now project Crabtree's having to hunker down and memorize a 300 play NFL playbook with route trees based on secondary reads before he even enters training camp. He has the smarts but does he have the will or experience to break down and absorb that kind of playbook?

The NFL is a professional football league. The best players are known for their work ethic far above their athleticism . . . except you Randy Moss. Does Crabtree have the will to put in those extra, grueling hours to make him great? Minus exceptional height and speed, Crabtree is going to need to out work his counterparts to meet expectations.

More than likely, I expect to hear complaints that Crabtree doesn't find the NFL brand of football fun anymore. The extra hours of practice and study just to find mild success will probably wear on his expectations where he's always found that the game came easy. It cannot be emphasized enough; the greats are married to their job. Is Crabtree married to the grueling task of being an NFL football player or has the gotten by with athletic talent? Jeremy Maclin is told to be a great worker, is Crabtree of that mold?

Let it be declared now. If Michael Crabtree turns out to be NFL draft bust you heard it here first. Behind those rosy colored glasses painted on by the college football hype machine there are some serious questions to Crabtree's NFL prospects. Great college players don't always make great NFL players. 6-1 height, 4.5 sec 40 yard dash isn’t special in the NFL and his fundamentals and work ethic are not his strengths.

As for Mel Kiper, just know his list annually consists of the top college football players who might be big or fast enough for the NFL ranks, but its mere coincidence if they measure out to be top prospects by NFL standards. I wonder how many NFL scouts have secretly admitted to friends and family that they would punch Mel Kiper if given the opportunity? Lucky for Mel, if Crabtree busts the fan base stuck with the disaster would have already forgotten his prediction.